Contents

Introduction

Chapter 1 - The importance of value

Chapter 2 - Why research is vital

Chapter 3 - Finding the value

Chapter 4 - Compiling your own odds

Chapter 5 - Bank management

Chapter 6 - Avoiding bookmaker restrictions

Chapter 7 - General betting advice

Final Word

Resources
 Introduction

We noticed something really interesting, and its a subject

we have since become passionate about. After talking to
numerous industry experts, and everyday gamblers
something became abundantly clear... the vast majority of
the betting public are woefully uneducated when it comes
to placing bets.

Betting is now a pursuit that has moved from the

shadows. It used to be a pastime that was frowned upon.
Betting shops were smoky, dingy places often next to
pubs.

But the online betting revolution, and most recently, the

smartphone revolution, has brought a new type of player
to the game. And its not just one type of player - it is
everyone. You, your friends, your family. Betting is no
longer looked at as badly as it once was.

Bookmakers are in their heyday. They are making record

profits year on year, and participation in gambling
continues to grow. Even a recession cannot knock it, as
people seek gambling as a way to put food on the table
when times are tough.

Vast sums of profit are spent on marketing, which

encourages poor betting habits. Of course, they want you
to lose your money, so theyre going to advertise the
practices that are most lucrative to them.
Truth is, that the more money the online gambling
companies earn, the less chance joe public has of winning
money from them. Unless, they start to educate
themselves.

We believe, that armed with even a little bit of knowledge,

beating the bookies is a possible task. There are chinks in
their armour, and were going to help you find them.

You work hard for your money. Its time to stop giving it
away to the online bookmakers and take a bit back for
yourself.

Before you read this eBook, make sure you read the
following article. It gives you an insight to my story which
you may relate to, and gives some basic info that will
prepare you for this book. It is vital that you read this
first before continuing with this eBook.

https://sport.one/value-betting/

So if youve read the article, are you ready to now make

some money? Lets get to it.
 Chapter 1 - The importance of
value
Betting purely and simply relies on one key thing.

Maths.

This is how the bookmakers can offer hundreds of

thousands of markets and make huge profits every single
year. They may having losing weeks, but over the long
run, they win every time.

This isnt purely down to the general public being poor at

betting (even though that plays a part). Its because they
build in what is known as an overround into their bets.

What is an overround you may be asking?

Well, if you imagine a Football betting market, you have

three markets in a win draw win match. Each of these has
a chance of winning. But the one guarantee is there is a
100% chance that one of them will win. It will either be a
win for the home team, a draw, or an away win. The home
team may have 34% chance of winning, draw is a 26%
chance, and away team has a 40% chance.

Now, the bookmaker offers you a price for each of these

selections which represent a percentage. That percentage
is the probability of that event occurring. You can see an
example below:
As you may notice, the lower the
odds, the higher the probability. So if
a team are priced at 1.2, it means they
have a great chance of winning. Or an
83.33% chance as a probability.

The bookmakers purposely give you

lot prices, which means their markets
add up to be over 100%. Sometimes,
the odds can be so low, this is as
much as 110%.

So over the long run, no matter what

the results, so long as their maths is
correct, they expect to make 10%.

This is why value is key. You are

fighting against odds, and probability.
For example - if you back a Football
team that is priced at 2.0, those odds suggest they have a 50%
chance of winning. It says that if the game was played 100
times, your team would win the match 50 times.

If the true chance that team has of winning is 40%, then the
true odds would be 2.20. They will actually win that identical
match 40 times out of 100.

So if you place a 1 bet at odds of evens on this imaginary

event each time it occurred, you need it to win 50 times to
break even. 51 times and youre in profit, 49 times and youve
lost money.
This shows how in the long run, you will lose unless you
find odds that are too big. Where the bookmaker has
incorrectly judged the value of the selection. You need to
flip the odds in your favour so that youre the one backing
an evens (2.0) shot, when the true odds are 1.80.

And please remember, you can further tip the value in your
favour by adding some free bets to your arsenal. This is the
link to the article so you can find out more:

https://sport.one/free-bets/
Chapter 2 - Why research is vital
A lack of research is the number one factor that stops
people from even having a chance at beating the
bookmaker. Most people bet with their gut, or have a quick
glance at the form column.

But you must delve deeper to understand the context

behind the column of Ws or Ls. Your bank balance really
depends on it, because the bookmakers employ teams of
experts, have access to mountains of data, and have complex
algorithms to make sense of it all.

Thats not to say they are right all of the time, far from it.
But that is why you need to put the work in, so you can spot
where theyre getting it wrong.

If you take Football as an example, there are numerous

different things that can influence the outcome of a match.
The following is just of the few factors that can have an
impact:

Playing style
Players
Form
Home/Away

As an example of how these can impact a match, were going

to give you an example of how those factors would have
influenced the following Football match:
Tottenham vs. Arsenal - 30th April 2017

Playing style
Tottenham play a very aggressive pressing game,
employing a high defensive line. They suffocate teams who
are slow to pass the ball. They can be susceptible to pace in
behind their defence.

Arsenal play a quick passing game. They are less

aggressive, and look to defend by controlling possession of
the ball. They create openings with great movement, and
speed in attacking areas. They are susceptible to being
bullied by physically strong teams.

Its important to consider the two styles. Is one team strong

where another is weak? As you can see here - Tottenham
were physical, aggressive and strong. These are attributes
Arsenal struggle to play against.

Players
Harry Kane, Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen were in
particularly good form in front of goal. The only injuries
were in the fullback positions and could be an area that
could possibly be exploited. But they were very strong in
midfield, with Victor Wanyama, Eric Dier & Moussa
Dembele to choose from, 3 very physical players.

Arsenal had injury concerns in the center of defence, and

had been playing left-back Monreal there recently. Most of
their team was in poor form, except for Alexis Sanchez.
Should any of the key players be missing, it can impact
greatly on the match - especially if its a player that is
relied on, such as Harry Kane for Tottenham and Alexis
Sanchez for Arsenal.

Form
Tottenham were in excellent form, having won 8 Premier
League matches on the spin. They had also won their
previous 12 Premier League matches.

Arsenal had won 4 of the last 8, drawing 1, losing 3. They

had lost 4 of the last 5 Premier League away matches.

Form is important, but its also important to give it some

context. As you can see, Tottenhams good form was over a
long period of time, so its unlikely to be because they only
had an easy run of games. Likewise, was Arsenals form
because they played particularly difficult teams? Or
because they had a star man out that has now returned?
Not in this case, but they are things to consider.

Home/Away
This normally plays a part in the match, and is usually
reflected in the odds automatically. However, you will find
that some teams just do better away from home, while
theyre playing a team that is in fact struggling in front of
their home crowd.

In this instance, Tottenham were playing their final match

at White Hart Lane in front of their own fans. Coupled with
their home form, this added a huge incentive on them to
win.
Trends
Tottenham had failed to score 2 or more goals only once in
12 Premier League home matches.

Arsenal had conceded 3 goals or more in 4 of their last 5

Premier League away matches.

This trend was relevant in the end as Tottenham won the

match 2-0.

Trends are one of the most important pieces of the

research as sometimes the best bets arent in the match
odds market.

At the start of your betting journey, you are unlikely to be

able to dedicate hours to compiling research on hundreds
of matches. So if you pick 5/10 matches that look like they
have interesting odds, compile a report for each one to
give the form some context.

We will list a variety of good sources at the end of this

eBook for you to use to do your research.
 Chapter 3 - Finding the value

Now you know what research to do, you have to know what
to research. This is all about finding your edge over the
bookmaker.

Think of it like this: The bookmakers have teams of people,

and lots of data, yes. But they also offer hundreds of
thousands of different markets. It is impossible for them to
micromanage the price of every market. It would be
completely unprofitable.

So what they do instead is focus on markets which generate

the largest revenues and the core markets of each fixture.
The prices on markets such as match odds and over/under
then automates the prices in the less popular markets. Any
discrepancies in their prices are usually noticed because a
large volume of bets are placed which alerts them, so they
adjust accordingly.

This is where its important for you to specialise in a less

popular league, sport or market. Niche down as much as
you can, so that you know the competition or sport that
you are betting on inside out.

If you do this, you will 100% know the markets that you are
betting on better than the bookmaker. You will be able to
instinctively know which markets look like theyre
incorrectly priced, so you can research effectively.
The following are questions for you to consider:

Which sport do you understand the best?

Is it is a lesser known sport?

If its not a lesser known sport, are you knowledgeable

about a lesser known competition in that sport?

Are there any sports/competitions where you are able to

get knowledge that isnt widely known? E.G. Local
information, contacts in that competition etc.

The key is to stay away from elite competitions that

everyone bets on. Any value in these competitions is usually
spotted straight away. Youre not just competing with the
bookmaker, but also other punters. Its a race against time
to get your bet on.

Once you have settled on a sport to concentrate on, you

must familiarise yourself with the best sources of
information on that sport. This can include news websites
that specialises in that sport, but there is one tool youre
probably familiar with that can help you get that
information quicker.

Its Twitter. If you follow the most trusted sources from

your chosen competition, and recieve news the second it
happens, it gives you a huge advantage over the bookmaker.
Markets can sometimes take hours, or even days to react to
news - the bookmakers dont monitor niche competitions.
The extent of their news consumption is likely to be a Sky
Sports News feed which will give them latest information
that concerns their biggest markets.

By having your finger on the pulse here, you have a huge

head start. By researching every match and considering the
points we raised in the previous chapter, you will already
have an overview of the match. Perhaps you had discounted
a particular match because there wasnt any value available.
Well, as new news comes in, you can be ready to pounce.
But this is why its important to do the research as early as
possible.

Finally, you need to shop around and use an odds

comparison tool like the one we have shared at the end of
this eBook. This is key, as it usually takes a while for value
to disappear everywhere. Usually its the large bookmakers
that react to poor value first, and the rest then change their
price like a ripple effect sometime later.
Chapter 4 - Compiling your own
odds
Right, so you know what to research, and where to look.
But how do you actually know if you have value in front of
you? Sometimes you will get an intuitive feeling, but the
way to do this is by learning to set your own odds.

Were going to show you how to do it, but before you jump
into using this to bet, you should first practice for fun. You
can do this by calculating your own odds and comparing
your calculated odds to the bookmaker. Remember, they
are right most of the time, so youre looking for your odds
to be similar to theirs initially. Once your odds are similar
most of the time, you know you are ready.

The following is a straightforward way of you compiling

the odds for a match odds market. We will use the same
Tottenham vs Arsenal match that we looked at earlier, and
well look at the previous 15 home games for Tottenham
and the previous 15 away games for Arsenal.

Tottenhams last 15 home matches:

Won 14 Drawn 1 Lost 0

Arsenals last 15 away matches:

Won 7 Drawn 2 Lost 6

To get Tottenhams home price:

You would take Tottenhams 14 home wins and add them

to Arsenals 6 away losses = 20

To get the draw price:

You would take Tottenham's 1 draw and add it to Arsenals

2 draws = 3

To get Arsenals price:

You would take Arsenals 7 wins and add it to Tottenham's

losses (0) = 7

This leaves you with the following:

Tottenham 20
Draw 3
Arsenal 7

To get the percentage which represents the probability,

you divide each teams individual score by the 30 matches
used in the sample.

To get the Tottenham percentage you divide 20 by 30 =

0.66 x 100 = 66.66%

To get the draw percentage you divide 3 by 30 = 0.1 x 100

= 10%
To get the Arsenal percentage you divide 7 by 30 = 23.33%

And finally, to get the odds you divide 100 by the

percentage. This gives us:

Tottenham 100/66.66 = 1.5

Draw 100/10 = 10.00

Arsenal 100/23.33 = 4.28

You will notice that in this instance, there is a slight

anomaly in that the draw is a lot higher than it normally
is. Its down to you whether you make manual
adjustments here.

What is noticeable, however, is that the price of

Tottenham looks incredibly short. Considering the
research conducted in the previous chapter that shows
strongly in Tottenham's favour, the bookmaker's price of
1.9 on Tottenham to win looks incredibly favourable.

The bookmakers gave Tottenham a 55% chance of

winning, while the odds compiled by us gave Tottenham
a 75% chance of winning. Tottenham went on to win the
match very easily, winning 2-0, which shows that the
value detected on their price was correct.
There are also some other options to consider when
compiling your own odds. And its down to you to mix and
match these until you find combinations you are
comfortable with that you feel represent the situation of
the match.

These are:

Long term approach - this is where you look at the last

20 home and away matches for each team. If you keep in
mind that 20 matches can take 4 months to play, and form
fluctuates. But it gives a good picture of the overall quality
of the team, as they will likely have played a varied range
of teams during that period.

Short term approach - look at the last 10 home and away

matches for each team. This gives a better indication of
the team's current form, however, the fixture list may
have been kinder to one team than it was to another.

How a team plays against similar opposition - this can

be a great indication, and show you lots of different
patterns which the bookmakers may miss.

This also doesnt have to relate solely to the match odds

market. The same principles can be applied to over/under
goals markets and such.
 Chapter 5 - Bank Management

You should now have more idea about the first skill of a
long term winning gambler - recognising and finding
value.

The second skill of a long term winning gambler is

knowing how to manage your bankroll. This is where you
manage your risk, and make sure that you take
advantage of the value in the long term.

As an example, you now know that the key to winning is

by finding value bets - bets that have a higher probability
of winning than the odds suggest. But, there is no such
thing as a dead cert, so you just have to be right more
often than not in the long term.

You cannot do this is if you blow your bank on a losing

bet. The key is to be consistent.

Our favourite strategy, and the most simple for

beginners is to only bet a percentage of your betting
bank.

We recommend betting a max of between 1 and 5 % of

your betting bank PER BET. Before executing on each bet
you will give your bet a confidence score of between 1
and 5. 1 is speculative, and 5 is ultra confident.
Now, something to consider is how much value you think
you are getting with the bet, and the price of your
selection. Backing a 10/1 shot is likely to be more of an
outside bet and warrant a 1 or 2% stake, while a 1.5 shot
likely to be a maximum 5% bet situation.

As you start to win more money, and your bank

increases, naturally, the amount you bet will also
increase. But if you go through a poor run and lose some
of your bank, then your bets naturally decrease, and by
sticking to a % it stops you from going bust quickly.

As you progress with your betting journey, you will

explore more complex methods, which may be more
suitable, such as Kelly staking. But for a beginner, the
above method is perfect.
 Chapter 6 - Avoiding
bookmaker restrictions
Dont panic after reading the title of this chapter,
because if you reach the stage where this could
potentially be a problem, then you are doing very well for
yourself.

Unfortunately, once you have mastered how to beat the

bookmakers and turn a profit in your account, you may
well receive the dreaded account restriction email.
Sometimes, an email doesnt even come, and punters
notice that their maximum bet has been lowered to
2.60, or some other crazy amount.

Now, eventually, if you are a long term profitable winner,

you will have your account flagged by the traders who
will likely limit your bets. But there is a way to stay
undetected for as long as possible.

Every bookmaker builds up a profile for you in the

background. This profile marks you out of 5 for how good
a gambler they think you are. If you only place sensible
bets at level stakes like we have recommended in this
guide, you will be detected very quickly, especially if
youre in profit.
The key here is to muddy the waters somewhat, and
make it look like you are a mug punter. A mug punter is
someone who places obscure bets, such as accumulators
that have no chances of winning. A mug punter also
spends money in the casino, and takes part in special
offers.

But were not suggesting that you waste all of your

profits here. The key is to placing bets that spend a little
bit of your profit, but make you less recognisable. For
larger singles that you place to make yourself look like a
mug punter, you can always lay it on an exchange where
possible to minimise losses.

When going for the kill with a bet you feel will be a
winner, if a value price exists on one, two or even three
bookmakers, make sure you spread the weight of your
bet across multiple different accounts. This is especially
important if the market you are betting on is a low
profile one. For example, bookmakers receive huge bets
on Premier League matches all of the time. But its rare
that they will receive huge bets on the Turkish 2nd
division. So be smart.

Taking part in free bets and promotions will make you

look like a recreational player, as that is who theyre
targeted towards. But if youre smart you can use them
to increase your value. Again, here is the article on free
bets https://sport.one/free-bets/
Also, consider where you are placing your bets, and if
there is a safer option. Two accounts that you should
definitely open are with the betting exchange Betfair and
sportsbook Pinnacle. Betfair sometimes offer industry
leading prices on their exchange, and because you are
betting with other people, they dont care how much
money you make. Although you need to consider
commission, as well as premium charge. Premium
charge is the Betfair tax on winning players.

Pinnacle is a sportsbook unlike many others. They offer

industry leading prices on many markets, and they
welcome winners, unlike many sportsbooks. Remember I
said most bookies build up a profile of your betting
behavior? Well, Pinnacle do too, but instead of closing
your account, they use the knowledge to their advantage.

When they highlight a punter as being a winning

gambler, they monitor their betting activity, and use the
data to sharpen their odds, make them more accurate.
They also accept bets from players who have huge
betting banks. For example, they accepted 1,000,000
bets in the World Cup 2014!
 Chapter 7 - General betting
advice
You now have the fundamental knowledge to help turn
you from what the bookmakers regard as a mug
punter, but there are a few other things that you should
consider before you get started.

Record your bets

You may not win huge amounts when you first get
started, but there is a very simple way to ensure that you
improve in the long run. That is by recording every bet
you make in a simple spreadsheet.

You need to do this from the very start. The problem

you will face is that you will likely open accounts with
multiple different bookmakers. So you need a
centralised place to record all of your data.

Once you have this data, youre probably wondering,

what do you do with it? Well, the point of this is so you
can see which bets are working for you, and which bets
are consistently losing you money. This may mean that
you either need to stop betting on these events, or tweak
how youre identifying and calculating value.
You need to record things such as market, event,
competition, bet stake, bookmaker odds and your odds.
If youre good with excel you can also create formulas
that automatically calculate the value you feel youre
deriving from each bet.

Mentality

Everyone loves winning, and this is the easy part of your

journey. However, dealing with losses is when you and
your commitment to being a long term winner is tested
the most.

You see, for 99% of people, money is linked to their

emotions. That is only natural because money equates
survival. So every time you put a bet on, your brains
primitive state is going into stress mode because it
judges your chances of survival as having lessened.

Its important to stay calm when you lose a bet. Most

importantly, if you are stressed, angry, or upset, step
away from betting until it subsides. Never bet when you
are in an emotional state as you WILL make costly
mistakes trying to win your money back.

Over time, the extreme emotions will lessen as your

brain learns that losing a bet isnt a bad thing. Just stay
disciplined and everything will soon become a lot easier.
Bookmaker bonuses

Most bookmakers offer a bonus for new players to open

an account. This is the perfect opportunity to grab some
extra value for yourself, and you should exhaust all of
the different bookmaker bonuses when you first start
betting.

This is because these free bets offered normally double

your initial deposit. This means you are effectively
receiving double odds on your bet. So that bet at 2.0 that
you were going to stake 10 on and receive 10 profit
for, now becomes a bet where you can profit 20.

This is a great way to build up your bank initially as you

are learning. Not only do you receive excellent value, but
you have all of the necessary accounts open and ready
for when you need to put a bet on quickly later on your
journey.

A good place to get more information on free bets and

how you can exploit them is here:

https://sport.one/free-bets/
 Final word
This is the tip of the iceberg, but a great place to start if
youre serious about making money betting. It is
recommended that you use this guide to give you a
grounding and further your experience by putting it
into practice.

Please remember, you dont need to practice with real

money, you can quite easily do it with a pen and paper
to start with.

However, its natural that we may have lost some of you

throughout the duration of this eBook. We get it, its not
easy. Yes, it would be nice to do the work yourself so
you can feel like a success.

But some of you will have busy jobs, families, social

lives, and cannot make the commitment that is needed.
But of course, youve probably still got the same
burning desire to make money otherwise you wouldnt
be reading this.

If you fall into this category, we can still help you. Visit
the following page where we will introduce you to some
very profitable tipping companies that can help you
become a winner a little bit quicker.

https://sport.one/betting-tips
 Useful resources
Sport.one - Great blog with all of the latest sports news.
Excellent way of keeping up to date.

Google sheets - Betting on the move is no longer a

problem. You can record all of your bets online.

Soccerstats.com - Soccerstats has a lot of data from a

variety of different leagues.

Soccerway.com - Another large soccer resource with a

great range of soccer stats.

Whoscored.com - Offers in depth data on individual

player performances.

Pinnacle Sports blog - Great range of articles to help you

continue your betting education. These range from basic
to advanced.

Betbrain - Betbrain allows you to compare the odds on

all of the leading bookmakers to help you find the best
value.

Racingpost - Good selection of horse racing data so you

can see all of the latest form.

OLBG.com - Community for gamblers where you can

discuss gambling with other punters and share ideas and
knowledge.