Published by the Council on Foreign Relations ABOUT EVENTS NEWSLETTERS SIGN IN

Save 55%
THE MAGAZINE BROWSE and get a SUBSCRIBE
free eBook!

MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY / REUTERS

A torn poster of deposed Egyptian President Mohame

SNAPSHOT August 21, 2017 Egypt Domestic Politics

The Muslim Brotherhood's

Fatal Mistake
The Miscalculation That Tore the Group in Two
By Eric Trager

O
n August 14, 2013, in what came to be known as the Rabaa massacre,
Egyptian security forces stormed Muslim Brotherhood-led sit-ins at
public squares in Cairo and Giza, killing hundreds o people protesting
the ouster o Mohamed Morsi, the Brotherhoods leader and Egypts rst
elected president. The death toll, which Human Rights Watch later placed at over
800 civilians, shocked the international community, but the bloodshed didnt
surprise the Brotherhood.

Indeed, from the moment o Morsis July 3 overthrow, the Brotherhoods leaders
understood that they were in a kill-or-be-killed struggle with the new military-
backed government. Only ve days after the coup, security forces opened re at a
rally for Morsi supporters, killing at least 51 and injuring hundreds more. But the
Brotherhoods leaders believed that their notoriously hierarchical organization,
whose motto includes the phrase death for the sake o Allah is the highest o our
aspirations, possessed the manpower to outlast any assault. I they want to disperse
the [Cairo] sit-in, theyll have to kill 100,000 protesters, Brotherhood spokesman
Gehad el-Haddad told journalist Maged Ate two weeks before the massacre. And
they cant do it [because] were willing to oer one hundred thousand martyrs.

O the many strategic misjudgments that the Brotherhood made during Egypts
short-lived Arab Spring, the Brotherhoods belie that it could out-mobilize the
regimes repression, was its costliest. The Rabaa massacre and the arrests of
Brotherhood leaders that followed decapitated the group nationally and also within
Egypts provinces, rendering it ineective on the ground. Within months, an
organization that had won a series o elections and referenda during the previous
two-and-a-hal years was barely visible throughout much o the country. Four years
later, the Brotherhood is a deeply divided organization, and its leaders pre-massacre
decision-making is at the center o that rift.

The split within the Brotherhood emerged soon after the massacre. Younger cadres
lashed out at senior leaders for misanalyzing the political situation leading up to
Morsis overthrow and

Register to read one free article a month.

Register for Free

Already a subscriber? Sign In

Join Us as a Subscriber

PRINT

$34.95
(One Year)

6 Print Issues

Paywall-free Reading on ForeignAairs.com

Subscribe

DIGITAL

$34.95
(One Year)
 6 Digital Issues

Paywall-free Reading on ForeignAairs.com

6 Original eBooks

Subscribe

PLUS

$40.95
(One Year)

6 Print & Digital Issues

Paywall-free Reading on ForeignAairs.com

6 Original eBooks

Subscribe

Get the best o Foreign Aairs delivered to you every Enter Your Email SIGN UP
day.

Browse Related Articles on Egypt

178 Articles Found

APR 13, 2017 SNAPSHOT MAY 10, 2017 SNAPSHOT MAY 15, 2017 SNAPSHOT MAY 30, 2017 LETTER FROM JUN 20, 2017 SNAPSHOT

Sisi Is No Partner For the Egypt's Failed War on Egypt and Sudan's The Suering of Egypt's Do Copts Have a Future
United States Terror Escalating Border Transgender in Egypt?
Embracing Egypt's Leader Will Backre Why Cairo Is Dragging Its Feet on ISIS Dispute Community The Perils Facing the Middle East's Largest
Meir Walters David Schenker Why Sisi Can't Aord to Lose the Halayeb Letter from Cairo Christian Population
Triangle Aya Nader Nina Shea
Maged Atef

Search 92 Years of Foreign Aairs SEARCH

Published by the Council on Foreign Relations

THE MAGAZINE REGIONS TOPICS FEATURES

From the
Africa Economics Articles publishers of
Foreign Aairs
Americas Environment Anthologies
The Most: Recent Shared Viewed
Asia Security Reviews
Europe Law & Institutions Interviews

Middle East Politics & Society Videos

Russia & FSU U.S. Policy Maps
Global Commons Galleries
Infographics

Read Foreign Aairs in your inbox. Enter your email SIGN UP

More from Foreign Aairs

PRESS CENTER ADVERTISING
Subscribe now and save
JOB BOARD ABOUT US 55%!
EVENTS SUBSCRIPTIONS

CUSTOMER SERVICE MY ACCOUNT

SIGN IN SUBSCRIBE
REGISTER GROUP SUBSCRIPTIONS

Gift Subscriptions Available

COUNTRY FOCUS GRADUATE SCHOOL FORUM

2017 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use