Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
Yt - (Yt - )2 Yt-1 - (Yt-1 - )(Yt-) Yt-2 - (Yt-2 - )(Yt-) Yt-3 - (Yt-3 - )(Yt-)
61 3721 0 0 0
15 225 61 915 0 0
-22 484 15 -330 61 -1342 0
-44 1936 -22 968 15 -660 61 -2684
-46 2116 -44 2024 -22 1012 15 -690
-58 3364 -46 2668 -44 2552 -22 1276
-34 1156 -58 1972 -46 1564 -44 1496
-48 2304 -34 1632 -58 2784 -46 2208
-38 1444 -48 1824 -34 1292 -58 2204
-39 1521 -38 1482 -48 1872 -34 1326
-47 2209 -39 1833 -38 1786 -48 2256
-46 2116 -47 2162 -39 1794 -38 1748
-19 361 -46 874 -47 893 -39 741
0 0 -19 0 -46 0 -47 0
7 49 0 0 -19 -133 -46 -322
7 49 7 49 0 0 -19 -133
-9 81 7 -63 7 -63 0 0
1 1 -9 -9 7 7 7 7
-17 289 1 -17 -9 153 7 -119
-13 169 -17 221 1 -13 -9 117
-24 576 -13 312 -17 408 1 -24
20 400 -24 -480 -13 -260 -17 -340
-24 576 20 -480 -24 576 -13 312
-34 1156 -24 816 20 -680 -24 816
24 576 -34 -816 -24 -576 20 480
-18 324 24 -432 -34 612 -24 432
-8 64 -18 144 24 -192 -34 272
29 841 -8 -232 -18 -522 24 696
-21 441 29 -609 -8 168 -18 378
10 100 -21 -210 29 290 -8 -80
-25 625 10 -250 -21 525 29 -725
-29 841 -25 725 10 -290 -21 609
-33 1089 -29 957 -25 825 10 -330
-3 9 -33 99 -29 87 -25 75
-19 361 -3 57 -33 627 -29 551
-23 529 -19 437 -3 69 -33 759
-20 400 -23 460 -19 380 -3 60
32 1024 -20 -640 -23 -736 -19 -608
17 289 32 544 -20 -340 -23 -391
-14 196 17 -238 32 -448 -20 280
-21 441 -14 294 17 -357 32 -672
-7 49 -21 147 -14 98 17 -119
-43 1849 -7 301 -21 903 -14 602
-15 225 -43 645 -7 105 -21 315
-27 729 -15 405 -43 1161 -7 189
-28 784 -27 756 -15 420 -43 1204
-18 324 -28 504 -27 486 -15 270
-17 289 -18 306 -28 476 -27 459
29 841 -17 -493 -18 -522 -28 -812
-19 361 29 -551 -17 323 -18 342
30 900 -19 -570 29 870 -17 -510
-21 441 30 -630 -19 399 29 -609
-21 441 -21 441 30 -630 -19 399
-23 529 -21 483 -21 483 30 -690
-24 576 -23 552 -21 504 -21 504
-1 1 -24 24 -23 23 -21 21
-23 529 -1 23 -24 552 -23 529
14 196 -23 -322 -1 -14 -24 -336
20 400 14 280 -23 -460 -1 -20
-54 2916 20 -1080 14 -756 -23 1242
6 36 -54 -324 20 120 14 84
25 625 6 150 -54 -1350 20 500
54 2916 25 1350 6 324 -54 -2916
-111 12321 54 -5994 25 -2775 6 -666
32 1024 -111 -3552 54 1728 25 800
-4 16 32 -128 -111 444 54 -216
0 0 -4 0 32 0 -111 0
0 0 0 0 -4 0 32 0
10 100 0 0 0 0 -4 -40
26 676 10 260 0 0 0 0
0 0 26 0 10 0 0 0
-11 121 0 0 26 -286 10 -110
50 2500 -11 -550 0 0 26 1300
64 4096 50 3200 -11 -704 0 0
51 2601 64 3264 50 2550 -11 -561
47 2209 51 2397 64 3008 50 2350
21 441 47 987 51 1071 64 1344
31 961 21 651 47 1457 51 1581
30 900 31 930 21 630 47 1410
20 400 30 600 31 620 21 420
7 49 20 140 30 210 31 217
30 900 7 210 20 600 30 900
0 0 30 0 7 0 20 0
5 25 0 0 30 150 7 35
45 2025 5 225 0 0 30 1350
17 289 45 765 5 85 0 0
54 2916 17 918 45 2430 5 270
-13 169 54 -702 17 -221 45 -585
-9 81 -13 117 54 -486 17 -153
26 676 -9 -234 -13 -338 54 1404
47 2209 26 1222 -9 -423 -13 -611
28 784 47 1316 26 728 -9 -252
28 784 28 784 47 1316 26 728
28 784 28 784 28 784 47 1316
48 2304 28 1344 28 1344 28 1344
17 289 48 816 28 476 28 476
31 961 17 527 48 1488 28 868
30 900 31 930 17 510 48 1440
78 6084 30 2340 31 2418 17 1326
= 101005 = 34627 = 35993 = 30314
r1 0.34282
r2 0.35635
r3 0.30012
r4 0.34534
r5 0.21725
r6 0.17294
Yt-4 - (Yt-4 - )(Yt-) Yt-5 - (Yt-5 - )(Yt-) Yt-6 - (Yt-6 - )(Yt-)
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
61 -2806 0 0
15 -870 61 -3538 0
-22 748 15 -510 61 -2074
-44 2112 -22 1056 15 -720
-46 1748 -44 1672 -22 836
-58 2262 -46 1794 -44 1716
-34 1598 -58 2726 -46 2162
-48 2208 -34 1564 -58 2668
-38 722 -48 912 -34 646
-39 0 -38 0 -48 0
-47 -329 -39 -273 -38 -266
-46 -322 -47 -329 -39 -273
-19 171 -46 414 -47 423
0 0 -19 -19 -46 -46
7 -119 0 0 -19 323
7 -91 7 -91 0 0
-9 216 7 -168 7 -168
1 20 -9 -180 7 140
-17 408 1 -24 -9 216
-13 442 -17 578 1 -34
-24 -576 -13 -312 -17 -408
20 -360 -24 432 -13 234
-24 192 20 -160 -24 192
-34 -986 -24 -696 20 580
24 -504 -34 714 -24 504
-18 -180 24 240 -34 -340
-8 200 -18 450 24 -600
29 -841 -8 232 -18 522
-21 693 29 -957 -8 264
10 -30 -21 63 29 -87
-25 475 10 -190 -21 399
-29 667 -25 575 10 -230
-33 660 -29 580 -25 500
-3 -96 -33 -1056 -29 -928
-19 -323 -3 -51 -33 -561
-23 322 -19 266 -3 42
-20 420 -23 483 -19 399
32 -224 -20 140 -23 161
17 -731 32 -1376 -20 860
-14 210 17 -255 32 -480
-21 567 -14 378 17 -459
-7 196 -21 588 -14 392
-43 774 -7 126 -21 378
-15 255 -43 731 -7 119
-27 -783 -15 -435 -43 -1247
-28 532 -27 513 -15 285
-18 -540 -28 -840 -27 -810
-17 357 -18 378 -28 588
29 -609 -17 357 -18 378
-19 437 29 -667 -17 391
30 -720 -19 456 29 -696
-21 21 30 -30 -19 19
-21 483 -21 483 30 -690
-23 -322 -21 -294 -21 -294
-24 -480 -23 -460 -21 -420
-1 54 -24 1296 -23 1242
-23 -138 -1 -6 -24 -144
14 350 -23 -575 -1 -25
20 1080 14 756 -23 -1242
-54 5994 20 -2220 14 -1554
6 192 -54 -1728 20 640
25 -100 6 -24 -54 216
54 0 25 0 6 0
-111 0 54 0 25 0
32 320 -111 -1110 54 540
-4 -104 32 832 -111 -2886
0 0 -4 0 32 0
0 0 0 0 -4 44
10 500 0 0 0 0
26 1664 10 640 0 0
0 0 26 1326 10 510
-11 -517 0 0 26 1222
50 1050 -11 -231 0 0
64 1984 50 1550 -11 -341
51 1530 64 1920 50 1500
47 940 51 1020 64 1280
21 147 47 329 51 357
31 930 21 630 47 1410
30 0 31 0 21 0
20 100 30 150 31 155
7 315 20 900 30 1350
30 510 7 119 20 340
0 0 30 1620 7 378
5 -65 0 0 30 -390
45 -405 5 -45 0 0
17 442 45 1170 5 130
54 2538 17 799 45 2115
-13 -364 54 1512 17 476
-9 -252 -13 -364 54 1512
26 728 -9 -252 -13 -364
47 2256 26 1248 -9 -432
28 476 47 799 26 442
28 868 28 868 47 1457
28 840 28 840 28 840
48 3744 28 2184 28 2184
= 34881 = 21943 = 17468
Periodo t (mes) Yt (ventas) Desfase 1 (Yt-1) Desfase 2 (Yt-2)
1 42828
2 24725 42828
3 16466 24725 42828
4 17724 16466 24725
5 25810 17724 16466
6 20264 25810 17724
7 12922 20264 25810
8 8380 12922 20264
9 9145 8380 12922
10 19580 9145 8380
11 12461 19580 9145
12 11876 12461 19580
13 18901 11876 12461
14 11249 18901 11876
15 14380 11249 18901
16 7100 14380 11249
17 3767 7100 14380
18 3333 3767 7100
19 2228 3333 3767
20 11107 2228 3333
21 13654 11107 2228
22 10293 13654 11107
23 12644 10293 13654
24 8701 12644 10293
25 26461 8701 12644
26 15748 26461 8701
27 20132 15748 26461
28 9920 20132 15748
29 5203 9920 20132
30 4560 5203 9920
31 3119 4560 5203
32 15549 3119 4560
33 19115 15549 3119
34 14410 19115 15549
35 17701 14410 19115
36 12181 17701 14410
13990
Desfase 3 (Yt-3) Yt - (Yt - )2 Yt-1 - (Yt-1 - )(Yt-) Yt-2 - (Yt-2 - )(Yt-)
28838 831635050 0 0
10735 115242014 28838 309579228 0
2476 6130989 10735 26580961 28838 71405498
42828 3734 13943378 2476 9245902 10735 40085696
24725 11820 139714370 3734 44137176 2476 29267511
16466 6274 39364122 11820 74160188 3734 23427950
17724 -1068 1140446 6274 -6700198 11820 -12622864
25810 -5610 31471165 -1068 5990924 6274 -35197085
20264 -4845 23473218 -5610 27179579 -1068 5173967
12922 5590 31249032 -4845 -27083488 -5610 -31359902
8380 -1529 2337586 5590 -8546772 -4845 7407474
9145 -2114 4468644 -1529 3232002 5590 -11816970
19580 4911 24118740 -2114 -10381621 -1529 -7508637
12461 -2741 7512624 4911 -13460870 -2114 5794069
11876 390 152165 -2741 -1069186 4911 1915732
18901 -6890 47470952 390 -2687642 -2741 18884687
11249 -10223 104508025 -6890 70435044 390 -3987789
14380 -10657 113569873 -10223 108944771 -6890 73425268
7100 -11762 138342684 -10657 125345766 -10223 120241094
3767 -2883 8311209 -11762 33908626 -10657 30723003
3333 -336 112840 -2883 968420 -11762 3951024
2228 -3697 13667193 -336 1241856 -2883 10657903
11107 -1346 1811492 -3697 4975742 -336 452116
13654 -5289 27972640 -1346 7118441 -3697 19552684
10293 12471 155527920 -5289 -65958520 -1346 -16785039
12644 1758 3090857 12471 21925204 -5289 -9298356
8701 6142 37725188 1758 10798294 12471 76598433
26461 -4070 16564222 6142 -24997767 1758 -7155253
15748 -8787 77209905 -4070 35762019 6142 -53969974
20132 -9430 88923328 -8787 82859892 -4070 38378975
9920 -10871 118176829 -9430 102511838 -8787 95521839
5203 1559 2430741 -10871 -16948665 -9430 -14702026
4560 5125 26266479 1559 7990432 -10871 -55714354
3119 420 176470 5125 2152962 1559 654945
15549 3711 13772140 420 1558964 5125 19019611
19115 -1809 3272180 3711 -6713040 420 -759896
= 2270856705 = 934056459 = 431661333
r1 0.41132338
r2 0.19008744
r3 0.05082761
Yt-3 - (Yt-3 - )(Yt-)
0
0
0
28838 107683806
10735 126889580
2476 15535153
3734 -3987690
11820 -66309682
6274 -30397411
-1068 -5969743
-5610 8577095
-4845 10241750
5590 27453365
-1529 4190633
-2114 -824604
4911 -33836955
-2741 28020163
390 -4157086
-6890 81038626
-10223 29471817
-10657 3579836
-11762 43482826
-2883 3880166
-336 1776635
-3697 -46104556
-1346 -2366234
-5289 -32484967
12471 -50756270
1758 -15448132
6142 -57919334
-4070 44243725
-8787 -13699535
-9430 -48329109
-10871 -4566691
1559 5785888
5125 -9270849
= 115422217