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TOP OF ALBERTA

About this
survey

Methodology

Mainstreet surveyed a random stratied sample of


1,000 Alberta adults from August 25-30, 2017
through live interviews. Landline and Cell lines
were included. Responses were weighted using
demographic and geographic information to
targets based on the 2016 Census.

The margin of error for survey results is 3.1


percentage points, 19 times out of 20 for the total.

Results may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet


Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been
the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Find us online at:


www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
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EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM MST, SEPTEMBER 5, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK

McDAVID WINS ALBERTA POPULARITY CONTEST

September 5, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nd Connor McDavid is the most
liked personality in the province out of a list of 18 politicians and athletes. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll
has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

We asked 1,000 Albertans what they thought about 18 individuals said Quito Maggi, President of
Mainstreet Research (@MainStResearch). Of the 18, half received net positive favourability ratings
(favourable minus unfavourable) while the other half received net negative ratings.

48% of Albertans say they have a favourable view of both Connor McDavid and Brian Jean, however, 9%
say they have a negative view of McDavid while 19% say the same for Jean. That means McDavid has a
net score of +39 while Jean has a net score of + 29. Flames Player, Johnny Gaudreau, has a net score of
+33, so the top three in the province are McDavid, Gaudreau and Jean.

Rounding out the top 5 are two CFL players, Bo Levi Mitchell makes fourth place with a +27. while Mike
Reilly makes fth with a net score of +15.

There is a clear partisan divide in the province as almost all Conservative politicians scored net positive
ratings and every NDP politician scored a net negative rating. The one exception to this rule is MLA Derek
Fildebrandt who scored a -18, putting him below several NDP cabinet ministers.

The one Albertan few can identify is interim United Conservative Party Leader Nathan Cooper. 85% of
Albertans either did not know who he was or did not have a clear opinion about him.

Finally, when we look at how mayors performed on the list it is truly a tale of two cities. Don Iveson
scored well in Edmonton though he is not well known in the province, his positive score bodes well for
re-election. Meanwhile, Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi is actually more popular in Edmonton than he is in
Calgary and registered a -15 in his home city. Its important to note that favourability is not the same as
approval or voting intention, nished Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, 514-913-5524, david@mainstreetresearch.ca


Contents
Methodology 2

Data Tables 8-9

Full Ranking 7

Joe Ceci 5,8

Nathan Cooper 6, 8

David Eggen 5, 8

Derek Fildebrandt 5, 8

Johnny Gaudreau 6, 8

Sarah Homan 5, 8

Don Iveson 6, 8

Brian Jean 6, 8

Jason Kenney 6, 8

Bo Levi Mitchell 6, 9
Shannon Phillips 5, 9
Brian Mason 5, 9
Mike Reilly 6, 9
Connor McDavid 6, 9
Andrew Scheer 6, 9
Naheed Nenshi 5, 9
Justin Trudeau 5, 9
Rachel Notley 5, 9
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WHO DO Cecis best numbers dont
come from Calgary (where
his riding is located) but
conservative personality to
score a negative
favourability rating in this

YOU LIKE? from Edmonton. Every NDP


personality will see better
results in Edmonton
survey.

regardless of the location of 13. SHANNON PHILLIPS (-16)


their constituency. 9% Favourable, 25%
We asked 1,000 Unfavourable
Albertans what
16. JUSTIN TRUDEAU (-30) 40% have no opinion of the
they think about 29% Favourable, 59% Minister for the Environment,
politicians, football Unfavourable but for those who do it is
mostly negative. Phillips best
players and other The Prime Minister scored score is a -3 from Edmonton.
personalities. well in Saskatchewan but
sees a tough score of -30 in 12. DAVID EGGEN (-11)
Alberta. One ray of sunshine 11% Favourable, 22%
So who came is Trudeau continues to poll Unfavourable
well in Edmonton where his
out on top? net score of +2 matches Eggen has a +8 from
Notleys own score in the Edmonton but outside
city. Albertas capital it is
What Albertans negative scores for the
had to say: 15. NAHEED NENSHI (-20) Minister of Education.
33% Favourable, 53%
Unfavourable 11. SARAH HOFFMAN (-5)
23% Favourable, 28%
18. RACHEL NOTLEY (-34) Nenshi is well known in the Unfavourable
26% Favourable, 60% province with just 14% of
Unfavourable Albertans saying they have Despite her being deputy
no opinion of him (not sure Premier, almost 50% of
Albertas Premier scores or not familiar). Nenshi Albertans have no clear
worst in our ranking of 18 scores closer to how NDP opinion of Homan.
personalities. Her worst personalities have scored in Homans best score is a
scores come from younger the survey rather than how +24 from Edmonton.
voters (18-34). Even in fellow mayor Don Iveson
Edmonton opinions are scored. In Calgary, where 11. BRIAN MASON (-4)
evenly split, with 45% saying Nenshi will face re-election 23% Favourable, 27%
they have a favourable later this year, Nenshi nets a Unfavourable
compared to 43% who have -15.
an unfavourable one. The best performing NDP
14. DEREK politician in the survey is
FILDEBRANDT (-18) Mason who boasts a +24
17. JOE CECI (-33) 19% Favourable, 37% from Edmonton.
16% Favourable, 49% Unfavourable
Unfavourable Mason scores a -7 in Calgary
The embattled MLA made and a -14 outside Albertas
The provincial Minister of headlines for an expense urban centres. Mason is the
Finance scores almost as asco - and it appears longest serving NDP MLA in
badly as the Premier, just Albertans were paying and has sat in the legislature
one point away from a tie. attention. He is the only over 20 years.
8. NATHAN COOPER (+5) 5. MIKE REILLY (+15) vote - not the general
10% Favourable, 5% 25% Favourable, 10% population.
Unfavourable Unfavourable
2. JOHNNY GAUDREAU (+33)
In interim leader of the The Quarterback for the 41% Favourable, 8%
United Conservative Party is Edmonton Eskimos makes Unfavourable
tied for 8th. Though he has a the top 5 with a +15. Reilly
+5 net score, 85% of scores best in Edmonton but The Flames player is only 6
Albertans have no opinion of many in Calgary have no points away from rst place
him. clear opinion. and scores the highest net
score in Calgary (+33) of all
8. ANDREW SCHEER (+5) 4. BO LEVI MITCHELL (+27) personalities polled. That
30% Favourable, 25% 35% Favourable, 8% being said, a full 51% of
Unfavourable Unfavourable Albertans have no clear
opinion of him.
The Conservative Party Levi Mitchell scores well
leader still has work to do as across the province but
45% of Albertans have no scores best in Calgary. He 1. CONNOR McDAVID (+39)
opinion of him yet. But with has higher scores among 48% Favourable, 9%
a high-prole position time is men compared to women Unfavourable
on his side and we expect (+32 vs +23).
greater positive numbers as With a +39 provincewide
the next federal election 3. BRIAN JEAN (+29) and a staggering +68 in
approaches. 48% Favourable, 19% Edmonton, McDavid is the
Unfavourable most popular personality
7. DON IVESON (+6) from the 18 names we
20% Favourable, 14% Jean is the best performing elded. McDavid scores well
Unfavourable politician in the province but among all age groups but
this may not mean much has higher negatives among
Edmontons mayor is mostly when it comes to his men than women. He is the
unknown across the rest of leadership election where it most popular personality in
the provinces but holds a +31 is party members who will the province in 2017.
in Edmonton which bodes
well for his fall election
campaign.

6. JASON KENNEY (+10)


39% Favourable, 29%
Unfavourable

Kenneys favourability
numbers come from outside
Albertas urban centres. In
Calgary, he currently scores
a net zero while he has a -7
in Edmonton. Outside the
cities he has a +25. Kenney
performs much better with
women than men (+17 vs +3)
and performs best with
younger voters (+26).
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Summary Table

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Detailed Results

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SCRIPT

Note: Names were presented in random order

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of *NAME*?

Favorable
Unfavorable
Not Sure
Not familiar with *NAME*

Joe Ceci
Nathan Cooper
David Eggen
Derek Fildebrandt
Johnny Gaudreau
Sarah Homan
Don Iveson
Brian Jean
Jason Kenney
Bo Levi Mitchell
Brian Mason
Connor McDavid
Naheed Nenshi
Rachel Notley
Shannon Phillips
Mike Reilly
Andrew Scheer
Justin Trudeau