Cuarta Asignacin de Estadstica Aplicada a la Ingeniera Qumica 2017 II

AYALA MENDOZA ANGEL BRUNO 1

CALVO AGUILAR MARIANA 2
CRDENAS PADILLA LUIS DIEGO 3
GABRIEL RECAVARREN ANGEL SERGIO 4
GARCA SANDOVAL JOHN FREDDY 5
HUAROTO FLORES JOSEPH MRTIN 6
JAVIER QUISPE KEVIN 7
LLANCA TRAUCO ERMELITA 8
PINEDO MIRANDA FERNANDO KEVIN 9
ROJAS SUREZ CARMEN LUZ 10
ROMERO ZELADA KEVIN CRISTIAN 11
SALAZAR LPEZ KAYLAM SHERLY 12
CALLE LAZARTE PARIS LEONEL 13
GARCA CORMAN ALEJANDRA ABIGAIL 14
GARCA CHVEZ MARA ALICIA 15
FLORES CONCHA JEAMPOL ELYNGAM 16
GUZMAN LOPEZ RAUL ANTONIO 17

Problemas

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An oil refinery has a problem with air pollution. In any one year, the probability
of escape of SO2 is 23%, and probability of escape of a sticky oil is 16%. Escape
of SO2 and escape of the oil will not occur at the same time. If the wind direction
is right, the SO2 or oil will blow away from the city and no damage will result.
The probability of this is 55%. Otherwise, an escape of SO 2 will result in damage
claims of $80,000, an escape of oil will result in damage claims of $45,000, and
there will be possibility of a fine. If the pollutant is SO 2, under these conditions
there is 90% probability of a fine, which will be $150,000. If the pollutant is oil,
the probability of a fine depends on whether the oil affects a prominent 9
politicians house or not. If oil causes damage, the probability it will affect his
house is 5%. If it affects his house, the probability of a fine is 96%. If it does not
affect his house, the probability of a fine is 65%. If there is a fine for pollution by
oil, it is $175,000. Answer the following questions for the next year.
(a) What is the probability there will be damage claims for escape of SO2?
(b) What is the probability there will be damage claims for escape of oil?
(c) What is the probability of a $150,000 fine?
(d) d) What is the expected cost for damages and fines?
A mining company is planning strategy with respect to its operations. It has the 10
option of developing 3 properties, but only in a given sequence of A, B, and C.
The probability of A being successful and yielding a net profit of $1.5 million is
0.7, and the probability of its failing and causing a loss of $0.5 million is 0.3. If A
is successful, B has 0.6 probability of being successful and producing a gain of
$1.2 million, and 0.4 probability of being a failure and causing a loss of $.75
million. If A is a failure, B has 0.4 probability of being a success with a gain of
$1 million, and 0.6 probability of being a failure with a loss of $1.8 million. If
both A and B are failures, then the company will not proceed with C. If both A
and B are successes, C will be a success with probability of 0.9 and a gain of $2.5
 million, or a failure with probability of 0.1 and a loss of $1.5 million. If either A
or B is a failure (but not both) then C is attempted. In that case, the probability of
success of C would be 0.3 but a gain of $5 million would result; failure of C,
probability 0.7, would result in a loss of $0.8 million. The company decides to
proceed with this strategy.
(a) What is the expected gain or loss?
(b) Given that A is a failure, what is the expected total gain from projects B and
C?
(c) Given that there is a net loss for all three (or two) projects taken together,
(d) what is the probability that B was a failure?
A fraction 0.014 of the output from a production line is defective. A sample of 95
items is taken. Assume defective items occur randomly and independently.
(a) What is the standard deviation of the proportion defective in a sample of this
size? 11
(b) What is the probability that the proportion of defective items in the sample
will be within two standard deviations of the fraction defective in the whole
population?
A quality-control engineer wants to check whether (in accordance with
specifications) 95% of the electronic components shipped by his company are in
good working condition. To this end, he randomly selects 15 from each large lot
ready to be shipped and passes the lot if the selected components are all in good
working condition; otherwise, each of the components in the lot is checked. Find
the probabilities that the quality-control engineer will commit the error of
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(a) holding a lot for further inspection even though 95% of the components are in
good working condition;
(b) letting a lot pass through without further inspection even though only 90% of
the components are in good working condition;
(c) letting a lot pass through without further inspection even though only 80% of
the components are in good condition.
Suppose that, next month, the quality control division will inspect 30 units.
Among these, 20 will undergo a speed test and 10 will be tested for current flow.
If an engineer is randomly assigned 4 units, what are the probabilities that (a)
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none of them will need a speed test?
(a) only 2 will need a speed test?
(b) at least 3 will need a speed test?
Pollution control regulations. A task force established by the Environmental
Protection Agency was scheduled to investigate 20 industrial firms to check for
violations of pollution control regulations. However, budget cutbacks have
drastically reduced the size of the task force, and they will be able to investigate
only 3 of the 20 firms. If it is known that 5 of the firms are actually operating in
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violation of regulations, find the probability that
(a) None of the three sampled firms will be found in violation of regulations.
(b) All three firms investigated will be found in violation of regulations.
(c) c. At least 1 of the 3 firms will be operating in violation of pollution control
regulations.
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The random variable X has p.d.f. f given by:

{
0 x <4
0,1 x=4
0,3 x=5
f ( x )= 0,3 x=6
0,2 x=8
0,1 x=9 17
0 x >9
Draw the graph of p.d.f f.
Calculate the probabilities P (X 6.5), P (X > 8.1), P (5 < X < 8).
Calculate and draw the graph of c.d.f F.
Calculate mean E[X].
Calculate variance Var[X].
If we define new random variable Y = 5 2X, calculate E[Y] and Var[Y].