TORONTO SEPTEMBER 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM EST, SEPT 12, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE:
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
About this
survey

Methodology

Mainstreet surveyed a stratied random sample of

1,000 Torontonians on September 8-9, 2017
through Chimera IVR. Landline and Cell lines were
included. Responses were weighted based on the
2016 Census.

The margin of error for survey results is 3.1

percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet

Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been
the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Find us online at:

www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TORY VULNERABLE BUT ONLY IF STARS ALIGN

September 12, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds Torontonians would easily
re-elect John Tory unless both Mike Layton and Doug Ford ran against him. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll
has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

John Tory has nothing to fear from a one-on-one match-up against Doug Ford, said Quito Maggi,
President of Mainstreet Research. But things get much more interesting if theres a strong progressive
candidate in the race.

Against Ford, Tory wins easily with a 27-point lead (including undecided voters) but the lead is cut by 20
points to just 7 if he were to face both Ford and City Councillor Mike Layton.

Its clear that if both Layton and Ford were to run that Tory would be in trouble - at least initially,
continued Maggi. None of us can guess how a mayoral campaign might turn out and what missteps the
candidates could make. In a three-way race with Layton and Ford, Tory receives 35%, Ford 28% and Layton
26%. Its a situation in which any of the three could ultimately win the campaign.

The risk for progressives is a strong campaign from the left could mean the election of Doug Ford as
Mayor and vice-versa the risk for Ford Nation is that Fords candidacy could lead to a mayor further to the
left than Tory.

Even a lesser-known candidate from the progressive spectrum could cause trouble for Tory. When we
polled Tory against former city planner Jennifer Keesmaat and Ford his lead dropped from 27 to 12 points
with almost 1 in 3 Torontonians undecided. Tory would also have a 12-point lead if former mayor David Miller
was to run.

Ford and Tory both denitely have bases of support but there are also many Torontonians out there who
could be convinced to vote for someone else. The question is who will put their name forward and will they
have the resources and vision to connect with Torontonians, nished Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

AT A GLANCE
Above: All Voters including Undecided
Below: Decided Voters Only
 Tory vs Layton

17 Point Lead over Layton

Among all voters, Tory holds a 17 point lead over Mike
Layton with 22% of all voters undecided.

Voters in Downtown Toronto back Layton the most

(39%) but still prefer Tory in a one-on-one match up.

And while Layton does not post strong numbers in

North York or Scarborough, the undecided rate is high
enough in both to keep Tory under 50%.

Though Layton is among the higher prole city

councillors its worth asking whether these results are
more attributable to him or to his late father, Jack
Layton.

Either way, there has been no announcement or

platform from Layton.

From a polling perspective he brings two useful things

to this survey; Layton has high name recognition and is
identied on the progressive side of the political
spectrum.
 Tory vs Ford

27 Point Lead over Ford

Among all voters, Tory holds a 27 point lead over Doug
Ford with 15% of all voters undecided.

In the one-on-one matchup Ford performs best in

Etobicoke (45%) and Scarborough (42%) with Tory
dominating in Downtown Toronto (72%).

Even in a one-on-one Tory would essentially face a

dead heat in Etobicoke and Scarborough.

Doug Ford has announced he will be on the ballot for

mayor.
 Tory vs Ford vs Layton

7 Point Lead over Ford

Among all voters, Tory holds a 7 point lead over Doug
Ford with 11% of all voters undecided.

In this three-way match-up Ford and Layton both are

able to hold onto the bulk of their support to the
detriment of Tory.

Downtown turns into a two-way race between Layton

and Tory with just a 7-point gap, while Ford commands
a plurality in Etobicoke and Scarborough.

A tight three-way race emerges in North York where

the 3 candidates are separated by just 6 percentage
points.

If Tory faces a strong established candidate from the

left alongside Doug Ford we could see a very close
election.
 Tory vs Ford vs Keesmaat

12 Point Lead over Ford

Among all voters, Tory holds a 12 point lead over Doug
Ford with 28% of all voters undecided.

If former city planner Jennifer Keesmaat entered the

race she would start with just 6% but almost 1 in 3
Torontonians would be undecided leaving her some
room to grow.

Its likely that many Torontonians are not familiar with

Keesmaat and that a dierent lesser known name could
have been substituted and achieved a similar result. Or
perhaps, Torontonians know who Keesmaat is but dont
know what she would do; this survey did not measure
her name recognition.

Her entrance to the race would have the immediate

eect of increasing the number of undecided voters
and cutting Torys lead over Doug Ford by 15
percentage points.
 Tory vs Ford vs Miller

12 Point Lead over Ford

Among all voters Tory holds a 12 point lead over Doug
Ford with 13% of all voters undecided.

This match-up looks at the last three surnames to

govern at City Hall; Tory, Ford & Miller.

Miller performs best in Downtown Toronto (28%) and

fares worst in Scarborough (10%).

His entrance to the race gives Ford pluralities in North

York and Scarborough but Ford would still trail Tory by
12 points - the same lead as if Keesmaat were to run
(albeit the undecied is over twice as high in her
scenario.)
Detailed Results