Analysis of experts comments threatened species West Belconnen

area 13/12/2016
Following a discussion paper produced by Ginninderra Catchment Group on planning in the NSW section of
the Ginninderry development, experts were consulted about predicted responses of threatened species with
respect to the range of scenarios discussed in the discussion paper (Figure 1).
Experts were chosen based on their prominence in their field of study, relevance of their research and
ecological knowledge with respect to the species concerned. Where research had been applied in the ACT
region, the experts who had conducted the most relevant research to the current planning situation being
assessed were consulted. The expert advice is based on a combination of data and, in most cases, decades of
experience in the species concerned.
The experts that were consulted were as follows:
Rosenbergs Goanna: Peggy Rismiller (Pelican Lagoon Research and Wildlife Centre) and Will Osborne (UC)
Peggy Rismiller has been studying Rosenbergs Goanna on Kangaroo Island for approximately 30 years. Over
this time she has radio-tracked the species and recorded increasing home ranges over time.
Pink-tailed Worm Lizard: Will Osborne Will Osborne is one of the foremost experts on reptiles, particularly
in the ACT area. Is a specialist on reptiles and frogs and has undertaken or been involved in research on
threatened species such as Rosenbergs Goanna, Pink-tailed Worm Lizard as well and Green and Golden Bell
Frog.
Raptors: Jerry Olsen (UC) and Stephen Debus (UNE) Jerry Olsen and Stephen Debus are both leading raptor
experts.
Birds: Karen Ikin (ANU) and Laura Rayner (ANU) Karen Ikin and Laura Rayner are bird experts who have
conducted extensive research into birds in the ACT region and their responses to urban development.
Water birds: Chris Davey (Canberra Ornithologists Group) Chris Davey is a local bird expert with extensive
experience and knowledge about a wide range of bird species.
Fish and Aquatic Invertebrates: Mark Lintermans (UC) Mark Lintermans is one of the foremost experts on
freshwater ecology of fish and aquatic fauna.
It should be noted that the Figure 2 and Table 3 only deal with the species that have recently been recorded
in or near the development area. Many of the fauna surveys that were conducted largely did not focus on the
forested areas around the Ginninderra Falls and Ginninderra Gorge. A more extensive list of species that may
occur in the area (based on previous records or records in the nearby area) is shown in Figure 3 and Table 2.
Implications
The findings of this analysis indicate that rezoning as currently proposed is likely to cause significant numbers
of threatened species to be put at risk of local extinction, significant decline or decline (Figure 2, Table1). The
intermediate option is also judged by experts as likely to put at least seven threatened species at risk of
decline. Even the more precautionary scenarios could result in declines or significant declines of some
species. When all species that have been identified as possibly occurring are included in the analysis (Figure
3; Table 2) more species are judged by experts as being put at risk of local extinction, significant decline or
decline (most notably for the currently proposed reserve scenario and the intermediate reserve scenario).
This indicates that there is a mismatch between currently promoted characteristics of the development in the
West Belconnen area (respecting biodiversity etc.) and the likely response of species as judged by leading
experts.
An examination of reserve design that takes into account all the ecology and life history of all the species is
critical and should be undertaken before rezoning goes ahead. This information should inform this exercise.
Based on this preliminary analysis, retaining the land proposed for rezoning in an environmental zoning
and even adding to this area appears to be the most appropriate action with respect to biodiversity.
1
Figure 1: Reserve scenarios presented to experts for assessment of likely species response

2
Expert advice for threatened fauna (NSW/ACT/CWTH)* recorded in West Belconnen Development area - response to different planning scenarios (see GCG discussion paper)
* Includes White-bellied Sea Eagle as Preliminary Determination
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

s
o.ofSpecie
N

Protected Area Scenario

Possibility of local extinction Significant decline likely Decline likely

No change Unknown Awaiting Expert Advice

Figure 2: Expert advice on predicted response of threatened fauna species in relation to different planning
scenarios presented in Ginninderra Catchment Group discussion paper

Threatened Species - Alternative Reserve Options

NSW section of West Belconnen Development - all species identified as occurring likely to occur or possibly occurring (all sources)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
No. of Species

Protected Area Scenario

Possibility of local extinction Significant decline likely Decline likely

No change Unknown Awaiting Expert Advice

Figure 3: Expert advice on predicted response of threatened fauna species in relation to different planning
scenarios presented in Ginninderra Catchment Group discussion paper all species identified from all
sources as being present, likely to be present, or possibly present in the study area.

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Table 1: Threatened species that have been recorded in the Ginninderry Development area and expert advice on predicted
response of these species in relation to different planning scenarios presented in Ginninderra Catchment Group discussion
paper
Likely
Likely Likely response -
response - response - Conservation
Currently Intermediate Likely weighted
proposed Reserve response - option
Threatened Threatened Threatened line (Red Option (Blue Current E3 (Yellow
.Species Cwlth NSW ACT line) line) (Green line) dotted line)
Possibility of
Rosenbergs
local
Goanna
Vulnerable extinction Decline likely No change No change
Pink-tailed
Vulnerable
Worm Lizard Vulnerable Vulnerable No change No change No change No change
Superb Parrot Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Decline likely Decline likely No change No change
Possibility of
local
Little Eagle Vulnerable Vulnerable extinction Decline likely Unknown Unknown
White-bellied Significant
Sea-eagle* Vulnerable decline likely Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Gang-gang
Cockatoo Vulnerable Decline likely Decline likely No change No change
Flame Robin Vulnerable Decline likely Unknown Unknown Unknown
Possibility of Significant
local Significant decline
Scarlet Robin Vulnerable Vulnerable extinction decline likely likely Decline likely
Speckled
Warbler Vulnerable Decline likely Unknown Unknown Unknown
Possibility of
Spotted local
Harrier Vulnerable extinction Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Eastern Bent-
wing Bat Vulnerable
Golden Sun Critically
Moth Endangered Endangered Endangered
Murray Cod Vulnerable
* White-bellied Sea Eagle currently has a preliminary determination as Vulnerable (NSW) but the full listing is pending. It is included in
this list as a precautionary measure

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Table 2: List of all species identified as present, likely to be present, or possibly present from all sources and expert advice on predicted response of these species in
relation to different planning scenarios presented in Ginninderra Catchment Group discussion paper. The assessment of species as unlikely to be present in the
table is based on expert opinion, however, these species were identified as possibly being present in other sources so are included for completeness.
Likely response - Likely response -
Likelihood of Likely response - Intermediate Likely response - Conservation weighted
Threatened Threatened Threatened Occurrence Currently proposed Reserve Option Current E3 (Green option (Yellow dotted
Species Commonwealth NSW ACT line (Red line) (Blue line) line) line)
Confirmed Possibility of local
Rosenbergs Goanna
Vulnerable recently extinction Decline likely No change No change
Confirmed
Pink-tailed Worm Lizard Vulnerable
Vulnerable Vulnerable recently No change No change No change No change
Confirmed
Superb Parrot Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable recently Decline likely Decline likely No change No change
Confirmed Possibility of local
Little Eagle Vulnerable Vulnerable recently extinction Decline likely Unknown Unknown
confirmed Significant decline
White-bellied Sea-eagle Vulnerable recently likely Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Confirmed
Gang-gang Cockatoo Vulnerable recently Decline likely Decline likely No change No change
Confirmed
Flame Robin Vulnerable recently Decline likely Unknown Unknown Unknown
Confirmed Possibility of local Significant decline Significant decline
Scarlet Robin Vulnerable Vulnerable recently extinction likely likely Decline likely
Confirmed
Speckled Warbler Vulnerable recently Decline likely Unknown Unknown Unknown
Confirmed Possibility of local
Spotted Harrier Vulnerable recently extinction Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Confirmed
Eastern Bent-wing Bat Vulnerable recently
Critically Confirmed
Golden Sun Moth Endangered Endangered Endangered recently
Confirmed
Murray Cod Vulnerable recently
Spotted-tailed Quoll
(Cwlth/NSW/ACT) Endangered Endangered Endangered Likely to occur
Possibility of local Significant decline
Hooded Robin (NSW/ACT) Vulnerable Vulnerable Likely to occur extinction likely Decline likely Decline likely
Possibility of local Possibility of local Significant decline
Brown Treecreeper Vulnerable Vulnerable Likely to occur extinction extinction likely Significant decline likely
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 Likely response - Likely response -
Likelihood of Likely response - Intermediate Likely response - Conservation weighted
Threatened Threatened Threatened Occurrence Currently proposed Reserve Option Current E3 (Green option (Yellow dotted
Species Commonwealth NSW ACT line (Red line) (Blue line) line) line)
Critically Critically Possibility of local Possibility of local Possibility of local Possibility of local
Regent Honeyeater Endangered Endangered Endangered Likely to occur extinction extinction extinction extinction
Glossy Black Cockatoo Vulnerable Vulnerable Likely to occur Decline likely No change No change No change
Significant decline
Varied Sittella Vulnerable Vulnerable Likely to occur likely Decline likely No change No change
White-winged Triller Vulnerable Likely to occur Decline likely Decline likely No change No change
Diamond Firetail Vulnerable Likely to occur Decline likely Decline likely No change No change
Possibility of local Significant decline
Painted Honeyeater Vulnerable Vulnerable Vulnerable Likely to occur extinction likely Unknown Unknown
Trout Cod Endangered Endangered Likely to occur
Silver Perch Likely to occur
Murray River Crayfish Vulnerable Likely to occur
Possibly
Koala Vulnerable Vulnerable occurs
Possibly
Eastern Pygmy Possum Vulnerable occurs
Possibly
Powerful Owl Vulnerable occurs Decline likely Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Possibly Possibility of local
Barking Owl Vulnerable occurs extinction Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Critically Possibly
Swift Parrot Endangered Endangered Vulnerable occurs Decline likely Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Possibly
Booroolong Frog Endangered Endangered occurs
Possibly
Macquarie Perch Endangered Endangered occurs
Unlikely to
Masked Owl (NSW) Vulnerable occur Decline likely Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Unlikely to
Sooty Owl (NSW) Vulnerable occur Decline likely Decline likely Unknown Unknown
Unlikely to Significant decline
Australian Painted Snipe Endangered occur likely Decline likely No change No change
Unlikely to
Green and Golden Bell Frog occur