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for good practice by individual members.
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RADD Land transport accident statistics
contents
1.0 Scope and Application ........................................................... 1
2.0 Summary of Recommended Data ............................................ 1
2.1 Road and rail users......................................................................................... 1
2.2 Dangerous Goods Transport ......................................................................... 4
3.0 Guidance on use of data ........................................................ 5
3.1 General validity ............................................................................................... 5
3.2 Uncertainties ................................................................................................... 5
3.2.1 Road and Rail User Casualty Frequencies .............................................................. 5
3.2.2 DG Transport .............................................................................................................. 5
3.3 Application of frequencies to specific locations ......................................... 5
3.3.1 Road and Rail Transport............................................................................................ 6
3.3.2 Dangerous Goods Transport .................................................................................... 6
4.0 Review of data sources ......................................................... 7
4.1 Basis of data presented ................................................................................. 7
4.1.1 Road Transport........................................................................................................... 7
4.1.2 Rail Transport ............................................................................................................. 8
4.1.3 Dangerous Goods Transport .................................................................................. 10
4.2 Other data sources ....................................................................................... 10
4.2.1 Road Transport......................................................................................................... 10
4.2.2 Rail Transport ........................................................................................................... 11
4.2.3 Dangerous Goods Transport .................................................................................. 11
5.0 Recommended data sources for further information ............ 12
6.0 References .......................................................................... 12
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Abbreviations:
ACDS Advisory Committee on Dangerous Substances
BLEVE Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion
DfT Department for Transport
DG Dangerous Goods
DNV Det Norske Veritas
ECMT European Conference of Ministers of Transport
E&P Exploration and Production
ERA European Railway Agency
EU European Union
FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency
FRA Federal Railroad Administration
GB Great Britain
HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle
IRF International Road Federation
KSI Killed or Seriously Injured
LGV Light Goods Vehicle
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
mm millimetre
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OG&P Oil and Gas Producers
ORR Office of Rail Regulation
QRA Quantitative Risk Assessment
RSSB Rail Safety and Standards Board
UIC International Union of Railways
UK United Kingdom
US(A) United States (of America)
(V) km (Vehicle) kilometre
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Table 2.1 Road Accident Fatality and Injury Rates, Selected Countries, All
Vehicles All Rates in deaths or injuries per 10 9 vehicle kilom etres
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In some circumstances a QRA may require road user casualty rates in different units
which take more account of the specific numbers of passengers being transported.
Thus Table 2.3 presents recommended road user casualty rates per billion passenger
kilometres.
The values in Tables 2.2 and 2.3 are based on UK data and considered representative of
developed countries with good road safety records. The values from Table 2.1 can be
used to generate appropriate modification factors for the rates in Tables 2.2 and 2.3
when applied in different countries. Clearly in any specific situation there will be a
number of factors which will influence accident rates such as driver experience, age,
etc. No data has been found which could represent these influences explicitly.
1
See footnote 3 on page 7 for explanation of data derivation
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These rail accident data are considered representative of developed countries. In less
developed parts of the world the accident rates may be larger, but no data sources have
been found to enable them to be quantified.
90% of the punctures are taken to be 50 mm diameter holes, the remaining 10%
catastrophic ruptures. The lower chlorine release frequencies are due to higher level of
engineering controls, and possibly safer procedural controls related to handling and
route management. Data on the causal breakdown of the release frequencies is not
available; both internal causes and causes external to the tanker are reflected in the
overall frequencies.
Table 2.6 Recom m ended Flam m able Liquid Road Tanker Release
Frequencies
Table 2.7 Recom m ended LPG Road Tanker Release Frequencies (not
cylinders)
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3.2 Uncertainties
3.2.1 Road and Rail User Casualty Frequencies
Due to the relatively large number of road traffic casualties (see Table 4.1 below), the
statistical uncertainties associated with the values in Table 2.2 and Table 2.3 are small
compared to the variations between countries.
In contrast, national statistics for rail passenger fatalities are generally very low.
However, low frequency but high consequence events can have a very large effect on
average passenger risk levels. Thus it is important to consider data over a reasonably
long time period. The data from Table 2.4 are based on British data 1996-2005 which
includes a number of major rail accidents; thus it is considered to be representative
with respect to such events.
Uncertainties for road and rail user casualty rates will be dominated by local variations.
Even within geographically close countries, such as within the EU, variations can be
large (see Section 4.0).
A further source of transport uncertainty arises from use of frequency units (e.g. per
vehicle km or per passenger km). The relative risk of various transport modes can be
highly dependent on the frequency units adopted. Thus, it is recommended that any
conclusions are tested for their sensitivity to units (see Table 2.2 and Table 2.3).
3.2.2 DG Transport
The frequency of releases of hazardous material during transport is much lower than
the frequency of road traffic accidents. Hence the statistical uncertainty will be larger,
similar to typical major hazard QRA uncertainties. In addition, these frequencies will be
influenced by local variations in road and rail accident rates. Thus, local data should be
obtained wherever practicable.
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However, data which have been adjusted to allow for local circumstances should always
be used with caution.
2
While there is uncertainty concerning the location variations in the rail data, as noted above,
the location specific data may be used in sensitivity testing.
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4. Multiply the frequencies from steps 1 or 2 with the DG transport data in step 3 to
obtain overall release frequencies.
Example: Estimate the frequency per year of large vapour space leaks in an
LPG operation that involves 5 tankers operating each 7 times a week on a
200km route fully loaded.
Assuming local data specific to this type of operation are not available steps 2 to 4 are
illustrated below.
From Table 2.7 the large vapour space leak frequency is 2.1 10-9 per loaded
vehicle-km. Assume that expert judgement concludes that this frequency is
appropriate.
Based on the example information above the number of loaded vehicle-kms per year
is 5 7 52 200 = 364,000.
Thus the estimated annual leak frequency is 2.1 10-9 364,000 = 7.6 10-4.
Table 4.1 GB Num bers of Fatalities 2006: Num bers by Road User Type &
Severity
3
In Table 2.1 in 2006 there were no fatalities on urban roads for LGVs and HGVs and no fatalities
on motorways for bus/ coach. For these cells of the table, the recommended fatality rates have
been set to the All Roads value. In Table 2.2 the rates are based on 1996-2005 data; as no
separate value for HGV is given in Ref. [1] it has been set at the LGV value.
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data covers a period between 1992 and 1994. The derived desert driving accident and
fatality rates are shown in Table 4.2 below and relate to company and contractor work
related accidents.
The downward trend in the fatality rate was considered to be the result of improved
induction training, the fitting of roll-over bars and speed governors to all LGVs and the
near 100% usage of seat-belts. This needs to be taken into account when applying the
rates for desert driving at other locations. Deriving an average over the 3 years of 2.4
fatalities per 108 vehicle kilometres, this is approximately 5 times higher than the
average all-vehicle GB fatality rate.
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few countries in the time period 2004-2005. Given this uncertainty no potential
modification factors are suggested in this datasheet.
Figure 4.1 Com parison between GB and EU Average Rail Fatality Rate [5]
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US data from the Federal Railroad Administration [7] for 2006 indicates 2 passenger
fatalities in 16,211,393,401 passenger miles = 0.08 fatalities per billion passenger km.
This is also consistent with UK data for 2004-2005.
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Koornstra [24] presents a passenger transport model which includes road transport
risk. Reference risks are first determined based on data from the original 15 EU
countries. Multiplication factors are then developed relating road fatality risks to the
Gross National Income per person (GNI/p) and plotted on a graph with a fitted function.
Corrections are made for estimated underreporting. The report notes a rather wide
scatter of fatality rates for individual countries about the curve. For certain countries
there is a difference between the predicted and reliably established risks (where country
specific data exists). Thus the report proposes an additional multiplication factor where
there are strong indications that a country is relatively less safe or relatively safer than
other countries with a comparable GNI/p level. Finally a multiplication factor for road
type proportions is proposed based on the variation in risk that is seen on different road
types. In principle this method can estimate road transport risks for any country in the
world and could be useful when country specific data is not available. The reference
risks are consistent with those presented in this report.
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6.0 References
[1] Departm ent for Transport 2006. Road Casualties Great Britain 2006
http://www.dft.gov.uk/162259/162469/221412/221549/227755/rcgb2006v1.pdf
[2] OECD, International Traffic Safety Data and Analysis Group
http://cemt.org/IRTAD/IRTADPublic/we2.html
[3] International Road Federation (IRF) 1994. World Road Statistics 1980-1993
[4] Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) 2006. Annual Report on Railway Safety
2005. http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/296.pdf
[5] UK Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) 2007. The Railway Strategic Safety Plan
2008-2010.
[6] European Railway Agency (ERA) 2006. A Summary of 2004-2005 EU Statistics on
Railway Safety.
http://www.era.europa.eu/public/Documents/Safety/Safety_Performance/07-
05%20ERA-Report2.pdf
[7] US Federal Railroad Administration website:
http://safetydata.fra.dot.gov/OfficeofSafety/
[8] ACDS 1991. M ajor Hazard Aspects of the Transport of Dangerous
Substances, Advisory Com m ittee on Dangerous Substances, Health &
Safety Com m ission, HMSO.
[9] DNV Technica 1996. Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Transport of
LPG and Naphtha in Hong Kong - Methodology Report, Report for
Electrical & Mechanical Services Departm ent, Hong Kong Governm ent,
Project C6124.
[10] International Road Federation 2007. The IRF W orld Road Statistics
2007, Data 2000-2005.
[11] ECMT 1998. Statistical Report on Road Accidents 1993/1994, European Conference of
Ministers of Transport, OECD, Paris.
[12] Davies, P.A. & Lees, F.P. 1992. The Assessment of Major Hazards: The Road
Transport Environment for Conveyance of Hazardous Materials in Great Britain, J.
Haz. Mat., 32, 41-79.
[13] Evans, A.W. 1997. A Statistical Analysis of Fatal Collisions and Derailments of
Passenger Trains on British Railways: 1967-1996, Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng., 211 Part F.
[14] Fett, H-J & Lange, F 1992. Frequency of Railway Accidents in the German Federal
Railways.
[15] Walmsley, D.A. 1992. Light Rail Accidents in Europe and North America, Research
Report 335, Transport & Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, UK
[16] Federal Emergency Management Agency. Handbook of Chemical Hazard Analysis
Procedures, available from Federal Emergency Management Agency, Publications
Office, 500 C Street, SW, Washington, DC 20472
[17] American Petroleum Institute 1983. Summary of Motor Vehicle Accidents in the
Petroleum Industry for 1982.
[18] Dennis, A.W. et al. 1978 Severities of Transportation Accidents Involving Large
Packages, Sandia Laboratories, NTIS SAND-77-0001.
[19] Rhoads, R.E. et al. 1978 An Assessment of the Risk of Transporting Gasoline by Truck,
prepared by Pacific Northwest Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy, PNL-
2133.
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[20] Smith, R.N. and E.L. Wilmot 1982. Truck Accident and Fatality Rates Calculated from
California Highway Accident Statistics for 1980 and 1981, prepared by Sandia National
Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy, SAND-82-7066.
[21] National Safety Council. 1988 Accident Facts.
[22] Ichniowski T. 1984 New Measures to Bolster Safety in Transportation, Chemical
Engineering, pp. 35-39.
[23] Urbanek, G.L. and E.J. Barber 1980. Development of Criteria to Designate Routes for
Transporting Hazardous Materials, prepared by Peat, Marwick, Mitchell and Co. for
the Federal Highway Administration, NTIS PB81-164725.
[24] Koornstra, M.J. 2008. A Model for the Determination of the Safest Mode of Passenger
Transport between Locations in any Region of the World. Report for Shell International
Exploration and Production B.V.
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