CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECT ON BANGLADESH

Introduction
1. The prevailing international scientific opinion on climate change is that,
human activities resulted in substantial global warming from the mid-20th century,
and that continued growth in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by human-
induced emissions would generate high risks of dangerous climate change. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted an average
global rise in temperature of 1.4°C (2.5°F) to 5.8°C (10.4°F) between 1990 and
2100. Recent investigations have shown that inconceivable catastrophic
changes in the environment will take place if the global temperatures increase by
more than 2° C (3.6° F). A warming of 2° C (3.6° F) corresponds to a carbon
dioxide (CO2) concentration of about 450 ppm (parts per million) in the
atmosphere. As of beginning of 2007, the CO2 concentration is already at 380
ppm and it raises on average 2 - 3 ppm each year, so that the critical value will
be reached in approximately 20 to 30 years from now.

2. The majority of the land in Bangladesh is either below, at, or barely above
sea level. And if it is true that sea levels will rise in the next 40-50 years, then half
of Bangladesh will be under water. There are already instances where busy
streets and towns near the ocean have been flooded and forced to evacuate. The
country faces a huge humanitarian crisis of epic proportions if global warming is
not combated.

3. Millions of refugees from Bangladesh will likely move across borders in

neighboring countries India and Myanmar. Not only is Bangladesh rife with
environmental catastrophes, the population density of the country is the highest
in the world. Making it an incredibly lethal and deadly combination that will not
only impact Bangladesh but all of South Asia and Southeast Asia for many
generations forward. Approximately 75 million (half) of Bangladesh's population
would emigrate due to sea level rise. Whether global warming is occurring as a
result of human involvement is something that is currently being debated among
politicians but hardly being argued by scientists. The majority of scientists have

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come to a conclusion on global warming and man's impact on it. And they all
claim that something needs to be done and in a hurry.

4.

Aim
5.

Causes of Global Warming

6. Emission of Carbon Dioxide.

a. Burning of Fossil Fuel for Producing Electricity. The ever

increasing addiction to electricity from coal burning power plants releases
enormous amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. 40% of U.S.
CO2 emissions come from electricity production, and burning coal
accounts for 93% of emissions from the electric utility industry. Every day,
more electric gadgets flood the market, and without widespread alternative
energy sources, we are highly dependent on burning coal for our personal
and commercial electrical supply.

b. Using Motor Vehicles. Modern car culture and appetite for

globally sourced goods is responsible for about 33% of emissions in the
U.S. With our population growing at an alarming rate, the demand for more
cars and consumer goods means that we are increasing the use of fossil
fuels for transportation and manufacturing. Our consumption is outpacing
our discoveries of ways to mitigate the effects, with no end in sight to our
massive consumer culture.

c. Deforestation Especially Tropical Forests for Wood, Pulp, and

Farmland. The use of forests for fuel (both wood and for charcoal) is
one cause of deforestation, but in the first world, our appetite for wood and
paper products, our consumption of livestock grazed on former forest land,
and the use of tropical forest lands for commodities like palm oil

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 plantations contributes to the mass deforestation of our world. Forests
remove and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and this
deforestation releases large amounts of carbon, as well as reducing the
amount of carbon capture on the planet.

d. Failing Sinks. If the activities mentioned above warm the

Earth just enough, it could cause natural carbon sinks to fail. A "carbon
sink" is a natural system that stores carbon over thousands of years. Such
sinks include peat bogs and the arctic tundra. But if these sinks
destabilize, that carbon will be released, possibly causing an unstoppable
and catastrophic warming of the Earth.

7. Emission of Methane.

a. Cattle and Rice Paddies. Methane's Huge Impact Per unit

of volume, it is twenty times more potent than carbon dioxide when its
impact is measured over the course of a century. When you consider its
effects within a single decade, methane is 100 times as powerful as
carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas! Carbon levels in the atmosphere are
about 385 parts per million (ppm) currently, whereas methane is only
about 1.8 ppm. But because methane is so powerful, it has the potential to
have significant impacts on the future of global warming. Methane is
created when bacteria break down organic matter under oxygen-starved
conditions. This occurs when organic matter is trapped underwater, as in
rice paddies. It also takes place in the intestines of herbivorous animals,
such as cows, sheep, and goats. Because human agriculture has grown
over time to engulf most of the arable land on the planet, it is now adding a
lot of methane to the atmosphere. Landfills and leakage from natural gas
fields (methane is a component of natural gas) are also significant sources
of methane.

b. The Arctic Tundra. The arctic tundra is melting already,

which may be causing an increase in methane levels in the atmosphere. A

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 mysterious spike in atmospheric methane was measured in 2007. In
addition, the rate of carbon increase in the atmosphere is accelerating
each year, which may also be related to the thawing of arctic areas. You
may be contributing to a positive feedback loop whereby the warming of
Polar Regions puts more carbon and methane into the atmosphere, thus
causing yet more warming in an unstoppable cycle.

c. Clathrates. Clathrates are a hidden source of Methane. Clathrates

are frozen chunks of ice and methane that rest at the bottom of the world's
oceans. As the water warms, the ice melts, and the methane is released. If
the current global warming, which is caused by humans, were to cause
changes in the Earth's ocean currents, then a rapid melting of clathrates
would be possible. This too would create a positive feedback loop that
would cause further global warming. It is believed that some of the
warming cycles in the Earth's history have been caused by the sudden
thawing of clathrates.

8. Nitrogen Oxides from Farming. The "green revolution" of the

twentieth century have allowed the farmers of the world to use chemical fertilizers
and machines to produce far more food than they ever did before. One of the
primary components of the green revolution has been the development of
nitrogen fertilizers that dramatically accelerate the growth and productivity of
plants in the field. Plants "fix," or capture, nitrogen on their own as well, but green
revolution technologies have become so popular that humans are now adding
more nitrogen to the earth than all of the plants in the world combined! Nitrogen
oxides have 300 times more heat-trapping capacity per unit of volume than does
carbon dioxide, and we release them every time we apply fertilizer to soil. A
recent United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization study found that
modern farming is contributing more to global warming than all of the
transportation sector combined! This is due partly to the fuel burned in modern
farming, but more significantly, to the release of methane and nitrogen oxides.

9. Other Gases (CFC-11, CFC-12 etc). CFCs and HCFCs

(chlorofluorocarbons and hydro chlorofluorocarbons) used in refrigeration are
also powerful greenhouse gases. These gases occur in lower concentrations in

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the atmosphere, but because they are so much more potent than carbon dioxide
in some cases hundreds of times more potent per unit of volume they contribute
to global warming as well. Refrigerator

Statistics on Emission of CO2 and Other Greenhouse Gases

10. Industrially developed countries are the main emitter of these gases hence
they are mainly responsible for global warming. The study on CO2 emission
shows that each year the amount of emitted gases is becoming greater than the
previous year. Some of the statistics are shown bellow:

Figure-5: CO2 emissions world-wide by year and CO2 concentration in the

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 atmosphere by year

Figure-6: Cause for global warming: Carbon dioxide emissions in million

tons per year over the last 200 years.

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Figure-8: Global Trends in Major Greenhouse Gases

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 fig 9: From which sectors do the major greenhouse gas emissions come
from? The lower part of the picture shows the sources individually for the
gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, respectively.

List of Countries by Carbon Dioxide Emissions

10. Major Emitters. The data presented below corresponds to emissions

in 2006. The data itself were collected in 2007 by the CDIAC for United Nations.
The data consider only carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels,
but not emissions from deforestation, and fossil fuel exporters, etc. The top 10
countries in the world emit 67.2% of the world total. Other powerful greenhouse
gases are not included in this data, including methane. Some dependencies and
territories whose independence has not been generally recognized are also
included, as they are in source data. Certain entities are mentioned here for
purposes of comparison. These are indicated in italics and are not counted in the
ordering of sovereign states. On 6 October 2009, the International Energy
Agency (IEA) released a new data set for 2007 emissions that listed about 140
countries. Here top 20 countries are shown and the contribution of Bangladesh is
also added.

Table-1: List of countries by 2006 emissions

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 Annual CO2
Percentage of Per Capita
emissions
Rank Country total (metric
(in thousands of
emissions ton)
metric tons)
- World 28,431,741 100.0 % 4.18
1 China 6,103,493 21.5 % 4.57
2 United States[10] 5,752,289 20.2 % 18.67
- European Union[11] 3,914,359 13.8 % 7.84
3 Russia 1,564,669 5.5 % 11.03
4 India 1,510,351 5.3 % 1.29
5 Japan 1,293,409 4.6 % 10.14
6 Germany 805,090 2.8 %
7 United Kingdom 568,520 2.0 %
8 Canada 544,680 1.9 %
9 South Korea 475,248 1.7 %
10 Italy[12] 474,148 1.7 %

64 Bangladesh 41,609 0.2 %

Effects of Global Warming

11. Increase of Temperature. Increase of temperature on the earth by

about 3° to 5° C (5.4° to 9° Fahrenheit) by the year 2100.

12. Melting of Ice. Scientists predict an increase in sea levels worldwide

due to the melting of two massive ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland,
especially on the East coast of the U.S.

13. Rise in Sea Levels. Rise of sea levels by at least 25 meters (82 feet) by the year
2100. Increasing global temperatures are causing a broad range of changes. Sea levels are
rising due to thermal expansion of the ocean, in addition to melting of land ice. Amounts
and patterns of precipitation are changing. The total annual power of hurricanes has
already increased markedly since 1975 because their average intensity and average
duration have increased (in addition, there has been a high correlation of hurricane power
with tropical sea-surface temperature). However, many nations around the world will
experience the effects of rising sea levels, which could displace millions of people. One
nation, the Maldives, is already looking for a new home!

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Chart shows warming forecasts taken from the 1988 "World Conference on the
Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security" conference in
Toronto, Canada, the 1990 First Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the 1995
Second Assessment Report of the IPCC.
Table-2: Effect of Temperature on Sea Level Rise

Year of
Rate of Warming Greenhouse Effect by 2030
Forecast
Temperature Sea Level
Rise Rise
1988 0.8 C per decade 3.0 C 20 to 150 cm
1990 0.3 C per decade 1.2 C 15 to 40 cm
1995 0.2 C per decade 0.8 C 5 to 35 cm

Source: Dr. Brian O'Brien, October 1997

14. More Killer Storms. The severity of storms such as hurricanes and
cyclones is increasing, and research published in Nature found: “Scientists have
come up with the firmest evidence so far that global warming will significantly
increase the intensity of the most extreme storms worldwide. The maximum wind
speeds of the strongest tropical cyclones have increased significantly since 1981,
according to research published in Nature this week. And the upward trend,
thought to be driven by rising ocean temperatures, is unlikely to stop at any time
soon.”

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15. Massive Crop Failures.

According to recent research, there is a 90% chance that 3 billion people

worldwide will have to choose between moving their families to milder climes and
going hungry due to climate change within 100 years.

“Climate change is expected to have the most severe impact on water supplies.
“Shortages in future are likely to threaten food production, reduce sanitation,
hinder economic development and damage ecosystems. It causes more violent
swings between floods and droughts.”" - Guardian: Global warming causes
300,000 deaths a year.

. 16. Effects of Global Warming on Animals and Plants.

a. Widespread Extinction of Species. According to research

published in Nature, by 2050, rising temperatures could lead to the
extinction of more than a million species. And because we can’t exist
without a diverse population of species on Earth, this is scary news for
humans. “Climate change now represents at least as great a threat to the
number of species surviving on Earth as habitat-destruction and
modification.” Chris Thomas, conservation biologist at the University of
Leeds.

b. Disappearance of Coral Reefs. A report on coral reefs from WWF

says that in a worst case scenario, coral populations will collapse by 2100
due to increased temperatures and ocean acidification. The ‘bleaching’ of
corals from small but prolonged rises in sea temperature is a severe
danger for ocean ecosystems, and many other species in the oceans rely
on coral reefs for their survival. “Despite the ocean’s immensity — 71 per
cent of the Earth’s surface with an average depth of almost 4km (2½m) —
there are indications that it is approaching its tipping point. For reefs,
warming waters and acidification are closing in like a pair of jaws that

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threaten to make them the first global ecosystem to disappear.” - Times
Online: 21st-century Noah’s Ark needed to save coral reefs from
extinction.

c. Land Animals. Reindeer are expected to disappear from large

portions of their current range by the end of the century. Marmots are
ending their hibernations about three weeks earlier than they did 30 years
ago. Canadian red squirrels are breeding about 18 days earlier. Red foxes
are spreading northward, encroaching on territory normally occupied by
their artic cousins. North American Fowler's toads are breeding six days
later than they did a decade ago. Polar bears today are thinner and less
healthy than those of 20 years ago.

d. Sea Life. Coral reefs around the world are predicted to increase
by up to a third in size. Elephant seal pups are leaner because their prey is
migrating to cooler waters. Loggerhead sea turtles are laying their eggs
about 10 days earlier than they did 15 years ago. Tidal organisms like rock
barnacles, mollusks, and tidal snails commonly found in warm southern
waters are moving northward. Many fish species are moving northward in
search of cooler waters.

e. Birds. The diet of some songbirds are changing, with some

avoiding insects that consume leaves exposed to high levels of carbon
dioxide. North American tree swallows are laying their eggs about nine
days earlier than they did 40 years ago. Common murres are breeding 24
days earlier than they did a decade ago.

f. Plants. Some plants are thriving in areas where their

growth was limited before, thanks to temperature changes that provide
more water, heat and sunlight. American flowering plants like columbines
and wild geraniums are blooming earlier than before.

g. Insects. Edith's checker spot butterflies are moving northward

in search of cooler temperatures. A gene in the fruit fly Drosophila

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 normally associated with hot, dry conditions has spread to populations
living in traditionally cooler southern regions.

Effects of Global Warming on Bangladesh

18. Impacts on Geophysical Resources. The impacts on geophysical

resources are presented bellow:
a. Land Loss. In regards to Bangladesh by 1 meter rise in sea level
due to global warming would inundate 18 percent of Bangladesh land
mass, create 20 million climate refugees with 40 million more losing their
livelihood by 2050. Scientific estimates indicate a billion people would be
displaced all over the world by 2050 by climate change. Coastal marshes
and swamps are particularly vulnerable to rising sea level because they
are generally within a few feet of sea level.

b. Flood. Tidal floods are typical for the coastal zones.

Tidal fluctuations vary considerably across the coast as well as vertically
inward from the coast line. Fluctuations are highest at Sandwip (7.65 m)
and the lowest at Barisal (2.81 m). 70 million people likely to be affected
by floods annually by 2050.

c. Storm Surges. Cyclones are extreme meteorological events in

the coastal regions of Bangladesh. They occur mainly in the pre-monsoon
(April-May) and post- monsoon (October- November) periods when the
meteorology becomes unstable and develops into tropical cyclones.
Devastating cyclones cross Bangladesh coast almost every year. A
cyclone in 1970 resulted in close to 300,000 deaths and another in 1991
led to the loss of 138,000 lives. The last terrific cyclone Sidr hit
Bangladesh on 15 November 2007 causing about 10,000 lives.

d. Salinity. As a result of rise in sea level, the saline water will

intrude into the inland water channels. High salinity will ultimately damage
the production of crops, plants and fresh water fisheries.

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 e. Destabilizing Ecosystem. Global warming will influence not
only the human activities but also the ecosystem. Increase in global
temperature means that the ecosystem will change; some species will be
forced out of their habitats while others may flourish. In Bangladesh
ecosystem and biodiversity probably are at greatest risk of all sectors
sensitive to climate change. In case of aquatic ecosystem, the biodiversity
increases with increase of water volume/biomass.

19. Impact on Human Life. Climate change can affect human life directly
(from heat waves and temperature) and indirectly in many ways. The potential
socio economic impacts of climate change and rise in sea level in the coastal
zone include those on human migration, health and settlement are presented
bellow:

a. Migration. In Bangladesh if the sea level rises by 1 meter

due to global warming, it would inundate 18 percent of Bangladesh land
mass, create 20 million climate refugees with 40 million more losing their
livelihood by 2050. Scientific estimates indicate a billion people would be
displaced all over the world by 2050 by climate change.

b. Settlement. In Bangladesh it may be assumed that, if the main two

coastal cities Chittagong and Khulna become threatened by sea level rise
and climate change, their economic importance would warrant increase
levels of protection by raised and strengthened embankments and walls.

c. Human Health. Three climate related factors may interact to

affect human health in the coastal zones:

(1) Potential changes in the supply of potable ground water.

(2) Potential changes to the incidence of cholera, typhoid and other
water borne diseases.
(3) Potential changes to the incidence of malaria from alteration in the
distribution of mosquitoes in the coastal areas

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20. Impact on Economic Factors. Bangladesh incurs annual losses
of 1.18% GDP due to extreme weather events. Bangladesh scored 8 on risk
index. Total losses were $ 2.19 billion a year from 1990 to 2008. The employment
opportunity in the coastal zone will reduce by 7% and 10% by the year 2050 and
2080 respectively.

Mitigation Measures
19. Diplomacy. Bangladesh should continue to pursue for the funds and
technology committed by the world leaders in Copenhagen. This is not a mercy
rather it is a right of the people of the country as they are the victim of the global
disaster without being responsible.

20. National Policy. There is a need for integration of climate change into
all aspects of national, sectored, and spatial development in the country.
Improved capacity of relevant ministries and agencies is essential in achieving
this.

21. Invention of Adaptable Technology. To survive, Bangladesh

needs to invent her own technology suitable for sustaining the effect of climate
change. Bangladesh Agriculture University has already started researching on
crops capable of sustaining saline water.

22. Stop Deforestation and Increase Plantation.

Deforestation must be stopped immediately by enforcing strict law and order.
Plantation program should be carried out throughout the country. In coastal belt
massive plantation program should be executed.

23. Development of Infrastructures. Several flood protection

measures need careful evaluation, design and implementation:

a. Flood zones may have to re-define.

b. Protecting nearly 21,000 km of Bangladesh’s roads and highways.
c. Flood-proofing individual homesteads by means of constructing
raised platforms.
d. Improved spatial planning and enforcement of land development
regulations.

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 e. Construction of small dams, mapping of flood and drought areas.
f. Introduction of rain harvesting techniques and public awareness
campaigns in water conservation measures, rehabilitation of flooded
areas, forecasting and early warning systems.

g. The construction of dykes and canals to redirect/divert overflows in

vulnerable areas.

Mitigation Throughout the World

24. Reducing Carbon Emissions.

a. Using less energy in home.

b. Driving less.

c. Walking, biking, and using mass transit.

25. Reducing Methane Emissions.

a. Better management of landfills

b. Better management of cattle

c. Compost kitchen and yard waste

26. Reducing Nitrogen Oxide Emissions.

a. Pollution controls

b. Improved agricultural management

c. Burn less fossil fuel

d. Use less energy

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27. Reducing Fluorinated Gas Emissions. Minimize consumption of
products that manufacture results in the creation of fluorinated gases.
Minimize the use of Aluminum, Semiconductor electronics, Refrigerators
and air conditioners

World Summits Held on the Issue

28. Earth Summit (1992). The United Nations Conference on

Environment and Development (UNCED), also known as the Rio Summit, Rio
Conference, Earth Summit was a major United Nations conference held in Rio de
Janeiro from June 3 to June 14, 1992. 172 governments participated, with 108
sending their heads of state or government. Some 2,400 representatives of non-
governmental organizations (NGOs) attended, with 17,000 people at the parallel
NGO "Global Forum", who had Consultative Status. An important achievement
was an agreement on the Climate Change Convention which in turn led to the
Kyoto Protocol. Another agreement was to "not carry out any activities on the
lands of indigenous peoples that would cause environmental degradation or that
would be culturally inappropriate".

29. Kyoto Summit. The Protocol was adopted by COP 3 on 11

December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for signature
by parties to UNFCCC. After 10 days of tough negotiations, ministers and other
high-level officials from 160 countries reached agreement on a legally binding
Protocol under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective
emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2%. The agreement aims to lower overall
emissions from a group of six greenhouse gases by 2008-12, calculated as an
average over these five years. Cuts in the three most important gases - carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) - will be measured against
a base year of 1990.

30. Copenhagen Summit 2009. UN framework convention on

climate change (UNFCCC) widely known as COP 15 started from 7 December
2009 in Copenhagen with a high expectation of signing fruitful deal by the high
emitters to bring down carbon emission to a level to keep the planet livable. COP

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15 is the largest and most important climate change conference in the history
attended by 194 countries, 115 heads of the states and government, more than
15000 officials, advisors and diplomats.

a. Outcome of the Summit. The Copenhagen climate summit

concluded on 18 December 2009 without an agreement. The COP15
summit was set to end with a resolution that only “takes note” of the
“Copenhagen Accord” that the US president Barak Obama had tried to
broker but failed. The accord drawn up by selected group of 25 countries.
Few important summary of the accord are given bellow:
(1) Endorses the continuation of the Kyoto protocol.
(2) Emphasizes a “strong political will to urgently combat the
climate change in accordance with the principles of common but
differential responsibilities and respective capabilities”.
(3) Recognizes “the scientific view that the increase in global
temperature should be bellow 2 degree Celsius”.
(4) Agrees that “developed countries should provide adequate
predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology and
capacity building to support the implementation of adaptation action
in developing countries”.
(5) Agrees a ‘goal’ for the world to raise $ 100 billion per year by
2020, from “a wide variety of sources”, to help developing countries
to cut carbon emissions and adapt to climate change.
(6) Agrees that the developed countries would raise funds of $
30 billion from 2010 to 2012 to help developing nations to fight
climate change.
(7) Establishes a Copenhagen green climate fund “to support
projects, programs, policies and other activities in developing
countries related to mitigation”.
(8) Establishes a technology mechanism “to accelerate
technology development and transfer”.

b. Analysis of the Proposals. The proposals have got four

significant components as discussed below:

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 (1) Hard Standing of the Developed Countries. None of the
developed countries has declared the amount of GHG they will
reduce by closing some of their plants. Since the emission of GHG
is directly proportional to the economy, development and the
employment of the people, no political leader could take decision
against the interest of their own people.

(2) Scientific View. It implies that all the leaders feel the
necessity of reducing global warming but they do not want it by
damaging their economy. They are in favor of reducing global
temperature by scientific invention.

(3) Fund for Affected Developing Countries. The

developed countries will create a fund to help the affected countries
to survive the negative impact of climate change.

(4) Development of Technology and Transfer. To help

fighting the environmental hazards, developed countries will provide
technological support. This will include sustainable and adaptable
programs and capacity building projects.

Conclusion

31. Rapid climate change is a manmade catastrophe. The last

intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) report in 2007 asserted that
climate change is unequivocal and this possesses serious threat to human
security and civilization. Thousands of people die every year as a direct result of
climate change and related events. Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of IPCC
said that the average global temperature increased by 0.74 degrees Centigrade

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in the 20th century and sea level rose by 17 cm. To save the planet from the worst
effect of global warming following measures may be adopted:

Recommendations

32. Climate change adaptation in Bangladesh will result in added costs for
governments, communities and private individuals. The challenge is ensuring that
the benefits of investment in climate change adaptation (by reducing risk and
lowering cost) outweigh the costs. Therefore, economic studies should focus on
developing strategies for the most efficient level of intervention.
Climate
 change will decelerate poverty reduction in Bangladesh, or even
increase
poverty; we need quantitative studies on the costs for the poor.
There
 is a need for a better understanding of costs and benefits of “soft
infrastructure”
(such as early meteorological warnings to farmers).

Ecosystem
 based adaptation is another useful tool. Coastal afforestation (with
mangroves or other tree species) can reduce the height of storm surges.
Urban
 planning for floods, migration and salinisation needs to be improved.
There
 is a need for more accurate estimates of future cost of transporting
drinking
water to areas affected by salinity intrusion.

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