1.

Introduction
1.1.General introduction of research
This paper describes the circumstance of current bus propulsion technology and
relevant factors which may influence the development of new bus propulsion. In
addition, the scenario planning method is used in this project to generate possible future
scenarios which could support an effective scheme to the developers.
Bus system is a mode of daily life, which is also a significant symbol for the modern
metropolis. As the public transportation, bus acts a significant role in society, which
provides efficient transportation for passengers. Moreover, the bus propulsion is a core
technology in the bus development which is affected by some uncertain factors, for
instance, the technology can promote bus propulsion development, in addition, some
environmental and social issue can limit bus propulsion development. Thus,
researching the prospects of new bus propulsion technology in various uncertain factors
is significant for urban development, which provides available scheme to response the
risk and opportunity.
Many methods could attempt to forecast, imagine or predict the future, some results
also can be obtained by using computer to simulate or model. Scenario planning is a
method to generate possible and plausible scenarios according to integrated assessment.
Scenario planning incorporates social variables and taken more holistic where the
complex social change and fluctuant conditions are considered in this method.
1.2.Strategic importance
The purpose of this project is to clearly understand the prospects of new bus propulsion
technology by using scenario planning. Before researching and providing the plausible
scenarios of bus propulsion, concepts of scenario planning would be understood.
Besides, the history of bus transportation and circumstance of current bus propulsion
would be comprehended, which can promote to know that what factors affect the
development of bus propulsion. And then, the effective scenarios are built according to
scenario planning. In the end of this project, these scenarios would be analyzed, which
helps developers to develop bus propulsion in the future.
 1. Literature review
1.1.Bus propulsion technologies
The omnibus has been defined as a four-wheeled public vehicle usually covered and
with seats on roof as well as inside plying on fixed route and taking up and setting down
passengers at fixed (20%project). This description is far from adequate for present bus,
which presents the general structure of bus. Due to the Industrial Revolution, the steam
technology was applied in first-generation bus in 1830s (Bardou, 1982). Traveling by
horse was the only way to transport except steam bus, with the emerging of steam bus,
the mode of horse car started to be cancelled, steam car increased the traffic efficiency
after abolish horse as the primary impetus. Steam technology divided the bus history
from animal to mechanical. During to horse era, bus service was the part of some
business, and the operator was the jobmaster (20%project). With the development of
Second Industrial Revolution, trolleybuses and tramways were serviced from 1882s.
Over the past 100 years, the bus industry has been dominated by diesel powered buses
according to the increasingly low cost and greater maturity of the technology (1). Diesel
and gasoline were emerging since 1920s due to the invention of internal combustion
engine (Bardou, 1982).
The emerging sources such as steam power, electric power and fossil fuel promote the
present civilization. With the bus technology development, some infrastructure has
been built, bus service also increased the pace of life. However, air pollution and cars
were first linked in the early 1950's by a California researcher who determined that
pollutants from traffic was to blame for the smoggy skies over Los Angeles (2).
According to environmental pollution and energy issue, new types of bus propulsion
technology are emerging in the recent years, which includes natural gas, hydrogen
internal combustion, fuel cell, solar and hybrid.
1.3.Scenario planning
1.3.1. Introduction to scenario planning
Scenario planning describes an array of methods to develop plausible future. Scenario
planning is a relatively young discipline, hence, some alterations are emerging during
the development. For instance, Paul Schoemaker presents the definition in 1995, which
is a disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions
may be played out (Chermack, 2011), this definition states the variables of imagined
possible decision-making. Furthermore, Ringland defined that part of strategic planning
which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future
in 1998 (Chermack, 2011), this definition focuses on managing future uncertainties. In
generally, scenario planning is a strategic planning tool which comprises uncertainty
and ambiguity inherent in complex, long-range problems and environment, although
many definitions are existing.
History
The word of scenario is derived from Italian word scena, scene, which means an outline
or synopsis of a play in the literal. Scenario planning development could be traced back
to World War II, military planners who needed to consider the uncertainty before war,
and the scenario planning researched a plan for futures filled with much uncertainty.
Hence, operating scenario planning can effectively help planners to prepare a plan for
what to do according to the achieved scenarios which were combined with many
uncertain factors such as weather, enemy strategy and military expenditure (slide).
Scenario planning first emerged for business application in RAND Corporation, and
Kahn (1967) was the RAND pioneer and presented the future-now thinking and the
word of scenario (book). In 1960s, Kahn established Hudson Institute which focused
on proposing stores to help people to consider unthinkable in future (book). At the same
time, the Stanford Research Institute (SRI) presented long-term planning for businesses
which included political, economic and research forces as elementary drivers for
business development (book).
For instance, Shell company prepared the solutions for Yom Kippur War broke out in
1973 and oil prices rose sixtuple according to Ted Newland suggested that planning
long time to effectively consider future factors in 1967 (book). Due to the preparation,
this company could lead in the oil industry during these years. Hence, based on this
significant case, scenario planning promoted the development where numerous
companies and organizations built scenario planning to think future in various methods.
The Shell experience becomes a significant review for companies, which also
summarizes the future planning strategies. In addition, the development of scenario
planning was normative, three approaches were built which are intuitive logics,
introduced by Pierre Wack, trend-impact analysis, the favorite of the Futures Group and
cross-impact analysis introduced by Battelle (book). Various methods of scenario
planning have been significant in widespread application, building community and
transformation of South Africa have applied scenario planning (book). However,
scenario planning has been criticized without standards research method in recent years,
which will cause that researchers may build scenario planning in inapposite methods.
1.3.2. Approaches to scenario planning
Many various approaches for building scenario planning have been presented, which is
significant to review the alternatives before researching the new bus propulsion in
scenario planning. Some major approaches to scenario planning would be introduced
below.
Royal Dutch/Shell and Global Business Network
The Global Business Network (GBN) was born out of Shells application of scenario
technology, which was built by Jay Ogilvy, Peter Schwartz, Lawrence Wilkinson,
Stewart Brand and Napier Collyns (book). In this concept, step 1 is to focus on an issue
or decision, scenarios would be built around the focal issue outward toward the external
environment. Generally, scenarios would concentrate on external environment issues
firstly, for instance, high versus low growth may be failure to capture company-specific
information, which may cause the difference when organization research the issues
(Schwartz, 1991).
The step 2 is to identify and research the key forces in the local environment, the author
thought these steps are logical after selected the significant questions or issues (0book).
In the second step, the factors which impact the success or failure of the issues identified
in first step would be examined. Moreover, scenarios must be built to shedlight on the
issue where the analysis of internal environment and strengths and weaknesses are
researched (book). According to comprehensive analysis, strategy development would
be scientific and professional.
In the third step, brain storming for the driving forces is included. Driving forces may
be presented in the microenvironment such as political, economic, technological,
environmental and social elements.
Step 4 includes the ranking of the key factors in step 2 and driving forces in step 3 on
the two fundamental criteria, the one is that the importance level for success, the another
one is uncertainty level surrounding the forces themselves, which is used to select the
significant forces from the unimportant forces (book). Two methods would be
introduced to develop distinctive story lines according to significant forces, which are
to identify two axes along the eventual scenarios will differ, the other method is to
develop stories which are included in the key driving forces at work.
Fifth step is used to select and develop the scenarios due to the matrix results which
were built by ranking exercise. Scenarios need to be logic for the corresponding matrix,
it is more like playing with a set of issues until you have reshaped and regrouped them
in such a way that a logic emerges and a story can be told (Schwartz, 1991).
In the step 6, scenarios would be described in details and fleshed out return to step 2
and step 3, each key factor and driving force is presented in attention and manipulated
within the matrix developed in the scenario logics of step 4 (book). And plausibility
needs to be constantly checked from this point.
The implications of the developed scenarios would be reviewed in step 7, which is
significant to examine the robustness of each scenario when some questions are asked,
for instance, what will the developers do if this is the reality? Does the decision look
good across one or two scenarios? Does a particular scenario require a high-risk strategy?
What weakness has been demonstrated (book).
In the final step, the leading indicators would be chosen from these scenarios, which
would indicate that real incident may be unfolding according to the developed scenario.
In addition, the identifiers need to help planners to monitor the impact of scenario to
organization (book).
The French School
The French School method is a structural analysis, which is divided into three phases.
Phase one describes the process of studying internal and external variables, according
to these variables, a system of interrelated elements would be built (book). In phase 2,
the range of possibilities would be filtrated and some uncertainty would be reduced by
the identified variables and strategies where the future possibilities can be listed
according to some logic hypotheses. In addition, some uncertainty would be reduced
by the evaluation of variables combinations in advanced software. Phase 3 is to develop
scenarios which are based on the hypotheses, in this method, scenarios can describe the
route from present situation to future situation.
Decision Strategies International
Paul Schoemaker has created an approach for scenario planning, step 1 defines the
scope of the project, which includes setting the time frame, inspecting the past to
identify rates of change, and general evaluation of expected future rate of change (book).
Step 2 is used to identify the significant stakeholders (book). The stakeholders could
include customers, suppliers, competitors, employees, shareholder and government
workers who may affect the development of project. Before identifying the roles, users
need understand that who the various roles have changed in the past years for
identifying the key roles for the project. The basic trends would be analyzed and
identified in step 3 in political, economic, societal, technological, legal, environmental
and industry factors (book). briefly explain the trend, including how and why it exerts
its influence on your organization (Schoemaker, 1995). In addition, trends can also be
expressed in influence diagrams or matrices to help make relationships explicit. How
trends may cause wrong although examining trends would be useful and trends are
introduced by experts. In step 4, significant uncertainties would be considered, users
would understand what events, whose outcomes will significantly affect the issue of
concern to organization, which can be examined in political, societal, environmental,
economic, legal and industry forces (book). In addition, the relationship between two
uncertainties needs to be considered about the rationality. For instance, the one
economic uncertainty is level of unemployment and the other level of inflation, and
then the integrated of high employment and low inflation may be ruled out as
impossible (Schoemaker, 1995). After setting the uncertainties, scenarios can be
identified in step 5 where the extreme situations would be identified by considering
whole positive elements in one situation and whole negative elements in another
situation. Alternatively, miscellaneous strings of outcomes could be clustered in high
and low continuity, finding themes, or the level of uncertainty (book). the initial
scenarios would be inspected that whether the scenarios are plausible. Schoemaker
came up with three steps to inspect scenarios, the first step is to confirm the
compatibility between scenarios and selected time frame, the second step is to verify
that whether the outcomes combination is appropriate, in third step, the primary
stakeholders must not be placed in situations they do not like but have the power to
change (book). step 7 is used to create learning scenarios according to manipulating
plausible outcomes. For each scenario, the trends would be same, however, the
outcomes would have different proportion in each scenario. In step 8, areas for further
research are identified, which is used to study other industries by using these scenarios
for considering the plausible outcomes of advances. After identifying further research
areas, the quantitative models would be built in step 9, which can help to quantify the
consequences of various scenarios. Scenarios would be determined that whether the
scenarios can be used for decisions in step 10 where four criteria are identified for
efficient decision-making. Firstly, scenarios should have correlation to be effective, in
addition, scenarios must challenge present thinking in organization. Secondly, scenarios
would be internally plausible and corresponding. Thirdly, scenarios should describe the
different futures, rather than merely vary on the theme. Finally, the proportion of
feasible state in each scenario should be equilibrium (GNP).
Lindgren and Bandhold
Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold published scenario planning: The Link between
Future and Strategy in 2003 (Hans Bandhold, 2003). The TAIDA method which
describes the details of scenario planning process has been introduced in this book
where TAIDA means tracking, analyzing, imaging, deciding and acting. The steps in
developing and using scenarios are described below.
Step 1. Creating a case for scenarios
Step 2. Obtaining detailed understanding, participation and support
Step 3. Identifying the decision focus
Step 4. Designing the process for creating scenarios
Step 5. Determining the promoter and facilitator
Step 6. Building the scenario team
Step 7. Collecting significant data, views, perspectives and projections to support
building scenarios
Step 8. Identifying and inspecting key decision factors
Step 9. Identifying the critical forces and drivers
Step 10. Managing research focuses on available issues, forces and drivers
Step 11. Evaluating the impact and uncertainty of each force and driver
Step 12. Creating axes of uncertainty for two forces and drivers
Step 13. Selecting scenario logics for envelope of uncertainty
Ste p14. Creating story line for each scenario
Step 15. Rehearsing the future with scenarios
Step 16. Obtaining recommendations and suggestions for the decision
Step 17. Defining signposts to monitor scenarios for future
Step 18. Demonstrating the results for organization (Lindgren and Bandhold)
1.4.Effect of scenario planning in bus propulsion
With the development of scenario planning, the function and identification of scenario
planning have been confirmed although many various definitions are existing. Scenario
planning is not prediction or forecast, and scenarios focus on creating plausible futures.
Scenario is a story in many forms for the future, and the forecast generally commands
material data and distinct certainty. Moreover, scenarios are not required to obtain the
future in right or predict the most likely future. Uncertainty determines the business
mode in the development of bus propulsion technology today, for instance, mutable
users demands can decide the global market in what kinds of directions, in addition,
product lifecycle and economic issue can also effect the directions of bus propulsion.
For understanding the future bus propulsion, some unknown factors may influence bus
propulsion development, which could be solved by using scenario planning.
Uncertainty is ubiquitous in the development of bus propulsion, which is constituted by
industries and environment. Some uncertain factors cause challenges for developers
and managers to make decisions. In addition, compared with future prediction
technologies, various perspectives are considered by scenario planning, which ensures
the complexity and volatility (German), and the single future projections cannot satisfy
the flexible uncertainty. Therefore, the scenario planning strategy is needed in the
research area of understanding bus propulsion technology. In scenario planning, the
complexity and flexibility of bus industry may be overcome by significant analysis and
comprehensive scenarios.
1.5.Analysis strategy
1-STEEP
STEEP is a tool which is used to promote structuring thinking and key categories, which
includes social, technological, economic, environmental and political forces (Burt). The
literature demonstrate introduction for each force. Social force means population trends,
which is the factor to consider to index population numbers when developers gather
some information and data. Cultural diversity, literacy and emerging societies can also
be seen as social force except population. Technological force includes multimedia,
Internet, mobile technologies, alternate fuel sources whose aim is to increase efficiency
and supporting collaboration (Wack). Economic force describes the situation of
fluctuating markets, in addition, different countries have various influence for the world.
The economic force also includes fluctuating currency exchange rates, taxes, fees and
cost. For environmental force, the limited oil reserves and global climate change,
natural calamities and the limited of space are included (Wack). Political force means
the effect of countries and government, some policies and plans from government may
influence the scale of global economy specifically some super countries.
2-De Bonos Thinking Hats
Thinking hat was created by De Bono, which is used to understand and think about
some complex issues (De Bono, 1990). Generally, thinking hat is aimed to consider
complex issues in several unitive perspectives which are white hat (focus on data and
information in neutral and objective), red hat (emotional view), black hat (attentions
and cautions view), yellow hat (affirmative view), green hat (creative view about novel
and ingenious view) and blue hat (overview and summarized for whole perspectives).
Except external analysis, thinking hats can also be used in various areas, in addition,
thinking hats need to attach importance before operating the project, the two strategies
are single use and sequential use (De Bono). Using thinking hat can support the
development of scenario planning to be comprehensive and detailed.
3-SWOT analysis
SWOT analysis covers strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, which is a
significant tool to analyze in strategic thinking and planning. Especially, SWOT
analysis can analyze the external environment for a given scenario, which may support
developers to estimate the prospect of this scenario.
4-The six domains of scenario planning theory
Before creating scenario planning for identified project, six key domains for building
scenario planning will be introduced and understood. Chermack provides the explicit
discussion of theoretical foundation for scenario planning.

Figure. scenario planning theory (Chermack 2011)

First part: dialogue, conversation quality and engagement

Dialogue, conversation quality and engagement are the concepts when scenario
planning is building (Chermack). In addition, dialogue, conversation quality and
engagement also represent the methods to obtain ideas, experiences, knowledges,
assumptions and tendencies for scenario project. Formal and informal communication
is a significant skill in scenario planning, which allows people to experiment with ideas
and perceptions. According to communication, the understandings of internal and
external environments could be shared to create scenarios.
Second part: learning theory
Learning theory is a critical foundational theory domain for scenario planning, which
is also defined as a process of obtaining knowledge about the internal and external
environments and how environments interact each of them in scenario planning (book).
In addition, several remarkable experts who are de Geus, Schwartz and van der Heijden
have presented planning as basically a learning activity (book). Three related meta-
theories of learning have been identified in scenario planning which are social learning,
cognitive learning and constructivist learning.
Third part: decision-making theory
Decision-making theory is used to criticize the understanding of scenario planning and
the performance of scenarios (wright and Goodwin, 2009). Decision theory identifies
four barriers to influence decision making, which includes bounded rationality,
exogenous and endogenous variables, knowledges stickiness and friction, and policies
and decision premises (book). bounded rationality means rigorous limitation, which is
also a primary element to cause decision failure, for instance, the single decision maker
may be limited when the decision maker selects some elements or process the related
information for scenario planning. Exogenous and endogenous variables represent the
factors from external and internal environment which would affect the whole system or
scenario. Exogenous variables are from outside of system, which may influence the
process of building scenario planning. Developers need to consider all variables to
restrict the negative feedback particularly some variables are easily to hide.
Endogenous variables easily appear within the systems, decision-makers also need to
check endogenous variables which may cause inaccurate consequences except
exogenous variables. Stickiness and friction describe the characteristics of information
and knowledge separately (book). Stickiness is the characteristic of information which
is used to associate with the cost of its transfer. Von Hippel has proposed that when the
cost is low, information stickiness is low, when cost is high, the information stickiness
would be high (Von Hippel). Due to seeking information is a significant process during
scenario planning, stickiness would be an effective characteristic. In the social and
political areas, ethics, knowledge and memory may belong to social friction, friction is
used to prevent the multiplication and persistence of political and social actions when
the driving forces are removed (Von Hippel). In scenario strategy realm, scenario
planning requires low cost of information transfer and high friction in knowledgeable
developers, which may lead decisions and scenarios to be effective and efficient. The
last barriers are policies and decision premises which can be regarded as the guiding
standards in context which may help developers to make decision when some
uncertainty influences the estimation (Forrester).
Fourth part: mental model theory
Mental model has been identified as a related enduring and accessible, but limited,
internal conceptual representation of an external system (historical, existing or
projected) whose structure is analogous to the perceived structure of the system (Doyle
and Ford). Mental model leads to that how the individuals think about and how the
individuals operate, therefore, mental models directly affect the select during scenario
planning. In addition, mental models are constantly being adjusted and redefined in the
dynamic environment for ensuring that developers can follow the significant direction
to build knowledge and obtain information. Weick described that mental model can be
compared to cognitive maps which include the territories and situations. Although the
incorrect information may be provided on cognitive map, map can still increase the
likelihood of correct operation. Any map is more significant than no map, during the
scenario planning, the correct and meaningful mental model can be understood
according to adjust the understandings, which is like to modulate the terrain information
on maps.
Fifth part: leadership support theory
Leadership as a significant element of scenario planning here. When scenario planning
is created by an organization, leadership would be a critical component for organization
change and development effort.

2. Research methodology
2.1.Introduction
The review of scenario planning literature clearly confirms that scenario planning is
appropriate, in addition, the review of scenario planning methods is useful to create the
scenarios for new bus propulsion. However, according to the particularity of this project,
such as personal project, time limited and data limited, the method of building scenario
planning for new bus propulsion will be created based on these published methods. This
project is constituted by five phases which are project preparation, scenario exploration,
scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment.
In the phase 1, the purpose of this project need to be confirmed. Scenario planning
categories of purpose can be divided into four cells which are making sense, optimal
strategy, anticipation and adaptive learning (van der Heijden, 2004). In the making
sense cell, the major strategic insights do not need to be provided for developers,
managers do not provide the framework for decision making. Generally, purpose of
making sense is aimed to understand or explore the unclear information. The purpose
of optimal strategy cell is prepared to operate the scenario in the environment. For
anticipation cell, the aim of anticipation is to operate the projects in a continuous and
sustaining scenario planning cycle. Adaptive learning cell takes aim at understanding
the environment by using scenario planning. Moreover, the scope and time frame also
need to be confirmed in phase 1. The scope of project decides that what is involved in
the scenarios, which may influence gathering data and information because of different
scope. In addition, the time line which is about how far into the future for scenarios
would be considered. Will the bus propulsion technology explore ten years or twenty
years should be confirmed, which is a significant select during scenario planning. If the
time frame is short, scenarios would be like a forecast. if the time frame is long, major
uncertainty cannot be known, specific decisions are obscure. Therefore, the appropriate
time frame for scenarios should be confirmed, which is also associated with project
purposes. After ensuring the scope and time frame, developers can gather specific
information for scenario planning.
After confirming the scope and time frame, the external and internal environments
would be analyzed for scenario exploration in phase 2. Generally, some tools and
methods are used to explore and analyze external and internal environment respectively.
External environment analysis is based on particular information gathering which is
aimed to understand the situation of project in economic and social factors where three
tools can be used which are STEEP forces, De Bonos thinking hats, and SWOT
analysis (book). moreover, many tools and methods can be used for exploring the
external environment, developers need to estimate and select the particular tools which
are applicable for the project rather than operating ambiguous analysis. In internal
analysis, questionnaires and existing data are the available tools. Questionnaires permit
the gathering of information from a mass of people who are in various countries and
have different cultural background. Thus, questionnaires can provide comprehensive
information for developers. Questionnaire method is significant for researching new
bus propulsion, because the main purpose of bus is to serve passengers, the suggestions
and information of passengers can promote the data be more effective. Moreover,
SWOT analysis and interview are also the effective tools to operate internal analysis
for gathering data, which is significant to connect scenarios and stories and help
developers to filtrate information.
In phase 3, the key data elements would be researched deeply based on the previous
internal and external environment analysis. For obtaining and developing the relevant
plausible scenarios, the elements need to be divided into predetermined elements and
critical uncertainties. Predetermined elements mean that an element seems certain, for
instance, the events can be predetermined to happen according to some reasons. Critical
uncertainties are intimately related to predetermined elements, the critical uncertainties
can be discovered by the assumptions of predetermined elements (Schwartz). From the
mixed elements of predetermined and uncertainties, the major forces would be selected
which have high impact and high uncertain.
Firstly, the major forces would be captured by developer according to the information
of literature and the data of questionnaires. In this step, all the thoughts can be came up
with, which may be deleted in the next steps.
Secondly, the major forces would be ranked according to potential impact from low to
high. Thirdly, the major forces would be ranked by uncertainty from low to high in this
step. And then, based on the horizontal impact and vertical uncertainty, the
uncertainty/impact matrix would be created. Fourthly, three driving forces would be
selected from the characteristic which is in high impact and high uncertainty. And then,
two driving forces would be combined to create scenario matrix whose each quadrant
will create a scenario. Finally, two sets of scenarios would be created based on the
different forces from the three driving forces, these two sets of scenarios would be
analyzed to confirm the similar scenarios which may be the possible event for the future.
Phase 4 focuses on describing that how to use scenarios to accomplish objectives, which
is named scenario implementation phase.
Scenario planning project steps
1. Creating Scenario project proposal
The purpose of this scenario project is to understand the prospect of new bus
propulsion technology
Scope: global bus propulsion prospect which includes different countries and
various propulsion technology, the project is restricted to the bus for passengers,
thus the personal vehicles are not considered
Time frame: scenarios are in next 10 years
2. Analyzing driving forces
Analyzing by using STEEP (social, technological, economic, environmental, and
political forces)
Analyzing by using SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and
threats)
Analyzing by using questionnaires
3. Creating scenarios
Ranking driving forces in impact from low to high
Ranking driving forces in uncertainty from low to high
Creating the uncertainty and impact matrix
 Selecting three driving forces from the quadrant of high impact and high
uncertainty
Selecting two driving forces from the three driving forces to create a set of
scenarios
Selecting other two driving forces from the three driving force to build another set
of scenarios
Analyzing and comparing with two sets of scenarios to obtain the similar scenarios
which may become the future stories.
2.2.Questionnaire design
Questionnaire is a significant method to gather data, questionnaire is used to collect the
information about what the future of bus propulsion would be and as a passenger, which
characteristic of bus will be payed attention in this research. However, for obtaining
estimable information from participants, some announcements would be noticed.
Respondents are less likely to answer a long questionnaire than a short one, therefore,
only 20 questions are included in the questionnaire shown in appendix 1, which can
ensure the high quality for each questionnaire. And then all the questionnaires have
been released on line for the respondents, which can ensure that the procedure of
investigation is efficient. For obtaining various perspectives, questionnaires have been
created for 300 participants whose age, gender and educational level are not same.
However, the questions may not be professional due to the special knowledge of each
respondent cannot be confirmed in a high level. This questionnaire aims to gather the
perspectives of passengers for new bus propulsion technology. The results of
questionnaires will be analysed in next parts.
 3. Results
3.1.Using STEEP to analyze the driving forces

3.1.1. Social forces

Social forces are one of the key factors influencing the bus industry, which includes
passengers demand, bus service pattern, number of passengers, regional diversity and
so on.
Regional diversity
In China, the proportion of passengers per day occupies 47.07%. The proportion of
passengers per day occupies 8.84%, and the proportion of passengers is 0.09% in Japan
(http://brtdata.org/location/asia ). The passengers who are in different countries have
various demand for bus transportation. For instance, the passengers prefer to select the
underground as public transportation due to the high efficiency in Japan. Thus, the
diesel buses are usually used in China according to that diesel bus can supply high
dynamics for the number of passengers. In Japan, the passengers may prefer to select
the fuel cell and electric buses, charging problem can be ignored according to the low
demand, drivers have enough time to charge during the rest time. With the development
of effective public transport, bus transportation may be transferred from diesel to
environment friendly propulsion due to less demand for bus. In addition, bus as an
urban transportation, with the development of urbanization, the demand of bus would
be increased. In 2008, some 3.3 billion people lived in urban areas, with 60 percent of
population living in urban areas (najm), and the number is prepared to reach 5 billion
by 2030 (najm), which means that the number of people living in urban areas is
increasing with the development of urbanization.
In this situation, the demand of bus may be increased to satisfy the high urbanization
around the world. Thus, the demand of buses may be the trend, which will be increased
with the development of urbanization. In addition, in some developed areas, new bus
propulsion technology may be the trend in the future such as electric bus, hybrid bus,
and fuel cell bus. These two trends indicate that new bus propulsion technology will be
developed and demand of buses will be increased with the increasing urbanization.
 3.1.2. Technological forces
Some emerging propulsion and fuel technologies will be analyzed in technological
forces. With the development of propulsion, some emerging propulsions are starting to
be used for bus although they are not popular.
Diesel
Diesel propulsion is the majority of transit buses around the world. The widespread use
of diesel bus is based on the robust fuel distribution infrastructure. Diesel engine has
been used since 20th century, which is based on the advantages of fuel economy, power
and reliability. Thus, diesel bus is a mature technology to support urban transportation.
And then, reliability is a significant attribute of diesel propulsion due to long history
and high maturity. Considering the environmental issue and energy issue, development
of diesel propulsion prepares to focus on increasing efficiency and reducing emissions,
for instance, Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF), Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR),
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) and Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF) have been
installed in diesel engine to prevent environmental pollution (abettercity).
Due to diesel propulsion technology is a mature technology which still has a long
history for bus propulsion, diesel technology would be impact for the development of
bus propulsion. In addition, the technology of reducing emissions for diesel bus is also
a mature technology, which means that efficiency of diesel propulsion may not be
increased extremely. Therefore, the development of diesel propulsion is not very impact
for the bus propulsion technology.
Natural gas
Natural gas is a fossil fuel which is also the second most utilized propulsion over the
last two decades. Natural gas can be divided into compressed natural gas (CNG) and
liquefied natural gas (LNG) which occupy approximately 19 percent of transit bus
propulsion (abettercity). CNG buses are much heavier than same diesel bus according
to the weight of its fuel cylinders and has lower torque (abetterycity). Thus, compared
with diesel fuel, the CNG transit buses have the lower power and acceleration especially
buses are driving uphill, such as San Francisco, may need to select powerful propulsion
for the transit buses. Although natural gas is a type of mature propulsion which also has
relatively low fuel cost and low emissions, natural gas has a lower efficiency and higher
cost than diesel propulsion.
Natural gas is an influential energy for bus propulsion, some developed countries
propose to use this energy. However, the development of natural gas technology is
uncertain. Although natural gas propulsion is a mature technology, the efficiency is still
low. If the efficiency of natural gas is increased, it will be widely used in buses.

Hybrid-electric technology
Hybrid-electric technology is identified as two or more sources of drive propulsion,
which is also combined with energy storage system. Generally, the hybrid-electric bus
is constituted by electricity and internal combustion engine. The significant
characteristic is that hybrid technology can capture and store energy by using
regenerative braking in the duration of braking process. Moreover, hybrid-electric
technology can be divided into two models which are parallel hybrid and series hybrid.
For parallel hybrid, both electric motor and internal combustion engine are connected
to transmission which can capture the power from electric motor and internal
combustion engine. At low speed, the electric power is used. And then the internal
combustion engine operates at high speed. For series hybrid, the bus is propelled by
electric motor, the internal combustion engine propels a generator which either charges
the batteries or drives the electric motor. Due to the drives of electric motor, the
emission and fuel economy are lower than diesel bus. However, the complex
construction may cause high bus cost and instability. The reliability of hybrid-electric
technology needs to be improved. Thus, the maturity of hybrid-electric technology is
uncertain for developers. Hybrid-electric technology involves battery technology,
motor technology and conversion efficiency problem. In addition, the development of
hybrid-electric technology also depends on other propulsion technology such as diesel,
fuel cell and so on. However, the development of hybrid-electric technology is impact
for future bus propulsion due to it can remit environmental pollution and energy crisis.
O
 Battery electric propulsion
Battery electric propulsion is a relatively promising technology in the recent years. Due
to battery technology is in developing stage, electric powered bus has the limitation of
small capacities and low speed. Some kinds of batteries have been operated, such as
lead acid, nicel-cadmium, nickel metal hydride and so on (reference). However, the
performance of these batteries cannot satisfy user need. According to these factors
which are specific energy (the ratio of a battery energy output to weight), cycle life and
calendar life, the performance of battery can be demonstrated. Generally, the drawbacks
are existing in the battery electric propulsion, for instance, lifecycle of battery is short,
and the capacity of battery is small, in addition, battery disposal is a significant problem
which can pollute environment severely. However, the advantages of battery electric
propulsion is zero emissions at point of use, and the operation is smoother and quieter
than other propulsions. Thus, the development of battery electric propulsion is uncertain,
experts cannot ensure that the efficiency and performance of battery bus can be
increased and improved. Moreover, battery electric propulsion is impact for bus
propulsion technology according to the zero emissions at point of use and comfort
operation.
Hydrogen fuel cell
Hydrogen fuel cell technology is to convert hydrogen gas and oxygen which is from air
into electrical energy by chemical reaction (abetterycity). Hydrogen fuel cell bus
produce zero emission to external environment, in addition, hydrogen is renewable
resource. Compared with internal combustion engine, hydrogen fuel cell technology is
more efficient in converting fuel to power. However, hydrogen fuel cell bus may cause
accident if the pressure of hydrogen storage is low. Moreover, the infrastructure,
maintenance and fuel are excessively expensive. Although development of hydrogen
fuel cell is impact for bus propulsion technology because of high efficiency and zero
emissions, it cannot be the trend in the future. The development of hydrogen fuel cell
is uncertain due to traffic accidents are unpredictable, traffic accidents may cause
pressure to be low.
 3.1.3. Economic forces
Oil price
Oil price may be a significant parameter to affect the development of new bus
propulsion. Diesel propulsion is used in widespread at present, therefore, if the oil price
is high, the cost of diesel bus will be high, which may provoke the development of other
new propulsion technology. The fluctuant prices of crude oil can influence the prices of
petroleum products such as petrol and fuel oil. The price of crude oil is conducted by
the supply and demand conditions in the global market. Crude oil prices can affect
global economy, in the meanwhile, oil price can also influence the development of bus
propulsion. Oil prices reached a peak value in July 2008, and then oil prices decreased
below 50 dollars per barrel by the end of 2008 based on the world financial crises and
economic stagnation (oil). However, oil price increased over 100 dollars per barrel
gradually after 2008. The boosting of demand may increase the oil price, for instance,
the rapid development leads to fast-growing economies in China, which promote oil
price in high level.

Figure : http://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart
This figure demonstrates the oil prices in the past decade. In the last ten years, the
maximum oil price was beyond 140 dollars per barrel in 2008, and the minimum oil
price was around 30 dollars per barrel. Although the oil price is around 50 dollars per
barrel, no one can ensure that oil price will be around 50 dollars per barrel in the next
years. Oil price is difficult to be predicted despite oil is a scarce resource. Due to oil
prices are influenced by global market circumstance, war even natural disaster, Oil price
is difficult to be predicted in the next years. However, although oil price is fluctuant in
the last decade, new bus propulsion technology steadily developed. For instance, oil
price decreased at 30 dollars per barrel in 2009, the development of new bus propulsion
was continuing. In addition, diesel bus did not be cancelled when oil price increased at
140 dollars per barrel in 2008. Thus, oil price is not a significant parameters to influence
new bus propulsion technology.

Taxation
High congestion charges in cities like London also encourage drivers to switch to other
forms of transport. Therefore, economic factor affecting bus industry is taxation. High
tax on fuel encourages customers to select from using diesel buses to more zero
emission propulsion buses. In some areas, diesel propulsion vehicles were faced with
high taxation to operate in towns and cities for confining the exhaust emission including
buses companies. In instance, From April 2019, some diesel drivers are compelled to
pay 24 charge per day in London (http://www.express.co.uk/life-
style/cars/788700/diesel-car-tax-dvla-road-tax-news ). In the meanwhile, bus
companies also need to pay the toxin tax for diesel buses. Developers think that high
tax for diesel vehicles may resist climatic change and environmental pollution.
Therefore, taxation is impact for development of new bus propulsion, zero emissions
can avoid high toxin tax. And taxation has been implemented in some developed areas
such as London, the development of taxation is certain. With increasing urbanization,
many developing cities may implement taxation to restrict air pollution and solve
energy issue.
Maintenance costs
The perspective of bus propulsion may be affected by maintenance costs. Many buses
have regular costs for maintain such as replacing components and rebuilding structure.
Different propulsion technology buses have various structures which include power
plant system, propulsion system, non-lighting electrical system, air intake system and
so on. Due to different types of propulsion, maintenance costs are not same. In addition,
for the same propulsion buses, the service time would cause different maintenance cost,
which means that some propulsion buses have large costs at in initial period, however,
these propulsion buses may have less maintenance costs in the later stage.

Figure (maintenance)
This figure shows the operating and maintenance cost with age for diesel hybrid bus
and diesel bus. Compared with diesel and diesel hybrid buses, the operating and
maintenance costs of diesel bus is higher than hybrid bus in the beginning. Although
both costs of diesel bus and hybrid bus go steadily up, the costs of diesel bus is less
than costs of hybrid bus due to the complex structure of hybrid bus is difficult to repair
and maintenance.
Compared with Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses and battery electric buses
(BEBs). The paper named Foothill Transit Battery Electric Bus Demonstration Results
which was published in 2016 introduced maintenance costs of CNG and BEB.

Figure (result)
This figure exhibits the data of maintenance costs comparison of CNG and BEB. It can
be seen that the total maintenance cost of CHG is higher than the costs of BEB due to
high propulsion-only maintenance.
In addition, the maintenance costs of diesel buses and diesel hybrid electric buses have
been compared in King County Metro Transit Hybrid Articulated Buses: Final
Evaluation Results which has been published in 2006. In the duration of comparison,
correlative parameters are almost same such as bus age, rated power, test period, total
sub-fleet mileage, and daily average speed, which can ensure the severity and accuracy
of this experiment.

Figure (maintenance )
The various and total maintenance costs for three sets of busses which are diesel buses
of Ryerson, diesel hybrid buses of Atlantic, and diesel hybrid buses of South Base are
shown in this figure. In this figure, it can be easily discovered that the propulsion related
maintenance costs almost occupy 25 to 32 percent of the total maintenance costs for
three types buses. In addition, this experiment proposes that the higher cost for hybrid
buses of South Base is based on labor hours spent to deal with troubleshoot problems
(maintenance). Generally, the total costs of diesel buses are higher than hybrid buses
although the values of costs are almost same.
In the paper Zero Emission Bay Area Fuel Cell Bus Demonstration Results which was
published in 2015 stated that the maintenance costs between diesel buses and fuel cell
bus, in this experiment, the samples are diesel buses of Van Hool, diesel buses of Gilling
and fuel cell buses.
Figure (maintenance )
This figure shows the maintenance costs of these three buses, specially, diesel Gillig
are the new buses, thus, the total maintenance costs of diesel Gillig buses are much
smaller than the costs of diesel Van Hool buses and fuel cell buses. Moreover, the costs
of diesel Van Hool buses and fuel cell buses can be compared due to the related
parameters are nearly same. It can be easily seen that the total maintenance costs of fuel
cell buses are smaller than the costs of diesel Van Hool buses.
Generally, compared with above propulsion buses, the largest maintenance costs are
diesel buses. however, high costs of diesel bus cannot be the standards for developers
and users due to the various developing expenditure. For instance, although fuel cell
bus has low maintenance cost, fuel cell propulsion is an emerging technology, which
may cause much expenditure in the duration of development. In addition, bus age is a
significant parameter to influence maintenance costs, which may lead to larger
influence than the factor of different propulsion. Maintenance costs are the significant
parameter to evaluate and estimate propulsions during the development of new bus
propulsion technology, which may provide effective information to developers whether
the propulsion can be applied extensively. Moreover, maintenance costs are based on
production costs which are easily predicted. Thus, maintenance costs are certain during
future operation.
 3.1.4. Environmental forces
Environmental regulation
Automotive emissions which include carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides are the one
of the sources to pollute air quality, and then some countries and global consensus
dedicate to environment emission control for obtaining high air quality and restricting
climate warming (najm). In instance, The United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) is used to control climate change including automotive
emissions. Thus, many significant regulations are the critical determinants for global
automobile industry including bus industry in the future.
The Kyoto Protocol is an amendment to the United Nations international treaty on
global warming, which proposes the participating countries to reduce the emissions of
carbon dioxide in1997 (reference). Although. After Kyoto Protocol, governments had
severe methods for reducing automotive emissions to solve environmental issue. In
addition, the environmental regulation is constantly changed and modified according to
the circumstance of climatic change and energy development.
European Union (EU) has released environmental regulations for reducing automobile
though the European Commissions specific carbon dioxide targets for European
automobile industry in the recent years (reference). EU limits the maximum value of
carbon emission, in the meanwhile, EU also forces the manufacturers to concentrate on
producing more environmentally friendly vehicles such as hybrids and electric vehicles,
and other fuel efficient vehicles.
In Japan, the Air Pollution Control Law has been introduced in 1968. Subsequent
standards have been set in 1972, which required a 90 percent reduction of CO and HC
emissions by 1975 and a 90 percent reduction of NO emissions by 1976 (reference).
Some automobile regulations were also embedded in the emission law. In addition, the
standards of diesel engine and gasoline engine became more and more stringent from
1986 based on the law. For instance, the standard for diesel has been changed from 0.23
g/km in 1994 to 0.0135g/km in 2005, which is nearly a 94 percent reduction
(environment-7).
Environmental regulation is impact to promote the development of new bus propulsion
technology which has zero emissions and renewable resource. Environmental
regulation is easy to predict that the diesel energy will be decrease in the future due to
environmental regulation dedicates to avoid air pollution. Thus, environmental
regulation severely influences the trends of new bus propulsion.
Automobile emission control systems
For responding environmental regulations, many automobile manufacturers focus on
developing the technology to reduce emission. Automotive emission-control
technologies are used to decrease pollutants produced for solving environmental issue.
Emissions are constituted by tailpipe emissions such as CO and PM, and evaporative
emissions such as volatile organic chemcials (reference). For controlling tailpipe
emissions, four dominating methods are purposed, which are promoting engine
efficiency, disposing emissions emitted, promoting automobile efficiency, and
promoting driving efficiency. In the last several decades, companies and manufacturers
focused on developing the engine size and engine types to increase efficiency. In
addition, some technologies have been invented to reduce emissions, for instance, air-
fuel ratio devices are used to allow further combustion of exhaust gases, and exhaust
gas recirculation valves are used to reduce NO emissions by re-introducing exhaust
gases into the fuel mixture and lowering exhaust temperatures (environment-table1).
Moreover, the clean energy is developed to drive automobile, such as electric, hydrogen
energy source, and fuel cell.
In response to environmental regulations introduced by a number of countries in the
1970s car manufacturers generally based their compliance strategies on the use of
catalytic converters. In the early 1980s, some car manufacturers applied three-way
catalyst. in a closed-loop emissions control system using sophisticated electronic
devices for controlling engine functions, while others relied solely on the use of three-
way catalyst without these electronic devices (Bresnahan and Yao,
1985).(environmental emission standard).
Emission control systems severely influence the development of new bus propulsion
due to the environment can be protected. However, efficiency of emission control
systems are uncertain for developers, whether emission control systems can eliminate
pollutants effectively is a problem.

Select three important critical uncertainties (driving forces) (reasons)

Select two from the three driving forces to create a matrix for four scenarios
Select other two from three driving forces to create a matrix for four scenarios

Compare these two sets of scenarios

2000 words to 2500 words