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[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] August 16, 2010
Heating Oil Crude Oil
Month High Low Settle Change Volume Month High Low Settle Change Volume
SEP 201.34 198.21 198.88 ‐0.68 28979 SEP 75.95 74.86 75.24 ‐0.15 198114
OCT 204.15 201.08 201.64 ‐0.78 14764 OCT 76.34 75.23 75.60 ‐0.17 95805
NOV 206.67 203.93 204.51 ‐0.81 5789 NOV 76.95 75.88 76.25 ‐0.11 37420
DEC 209.67 206.73 207.34 ‐0.82 8091 DEC 77.53 76.48 76.88 ‐0.06 40664
JAN 211.53 209.52 210.02 ‐0.79 2416 JAN 78.00 77.09 77.45 ‐0.04 6587
FEB 213.05 211.30 211.81 ‐0.77 802 FEB 78.54 77.58 77.95 ‐0.02 2673
MAR 213.58 212.00 212.52 ‐0.76 507 MAR 78.82 78.16 78.37 ‐0.01 2099
APR 212.60 212.30 212.48 ‐0.71 104 APR 79.25 78.57 78.77 ‐0.02 1120
MAY 212.65 212.40 212.61 ‐0.64 122 MAY 79.20 79.20 79.17 ‐0.02 1005
JUN 214.97 212.38 212.91 ‐0.59 837 JUN 80.12 79.37 79.55 ‐0.02 3569
JUL 214.35 214.00 214.24 ‐0.54 94 JUL 79.88 79.87 79.89 ‐0.03 1296
AUG 215.98 215.73 215.81 ‐0.47 165 AUG 80.17 80.06 80.14 ‐0.04 333
Unleaded Gasoline Natural Gas
Month High Low Settle Change Volume Month High Low Settle Change Volume
SEP 195.59 191.85 192.43 ‐1.53 26014 SEP 4.350 4.182 4.228 ‐0.100 94087
OCT 190.53 187.10 187.85 ‐0.62 21462 OCT 4.368 4.206 4.249 ‐0.101 53715
NOV 190.85 187.69 188.43 ‐0.45 8297 NOV 4.598 4.432 4.456 ‐0.129 22336
DEC 192.24 189.16 189.95 ‐0.26 7936 DEC 4.896 4.715 4.725 ‐0.144 16364
JAN 193.77 192.11 192.29 ‐0.17 1368 JAN 5.008 4.848 4.865 ‐0.137 12112
FEB 195.49 194.42 194.57 ‐0.11 481 FEB 5.003 4.835 4.850 ‐0.136 2456
MAR 197.64 196.50 196.84 ‐0.09 637 MAR 4.911 4.756 4.772 ‐0.131 4622
APR 209.92 208.61 209.14 ‐0.04 523 APR 4.791 4.641 4.654 ‐0.117 5793
MAY ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 210.23 0.15 0 MAY 4.750 4.666 4.678 ‐0.113 1854
JUN 211.70 211.60 211.19 0.31 402 JUN 4.831 4.720 4.729 ‐0.112 1326
JUL ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 211.54 0.36 0 JUL 4.873 4.781 4.788 ‐0.110 1286
AUG ‐‐‐ ‐‐‐ 211.34 0.36 0 AUG 4.915 4.833 4.839 ‐0.109 1028
Early Evening Market Review for Monday
The energy complex was slightly lower on Monday, led lower by the
“gases” – gasoline and natural gas. Crude oil and heating oil prices were
just fractionally lower in a relatively quiet trading day. With August
winding down its second half, it seems that all of Europe and large parts
of the rest of the northern hemisphere are on vacation or holiday.
And, as if to highlight this, equities were barely changed, down just
1.14 on the day to 10,302.01, while the euro was mostly under selling
pressure early in the session, only to rally in later in the day. Traders and
investors saw a weakening economy and plentiful oil supplies as reasons
not to be aggressive buyers when the euro rallied later in the day.
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CAMERON HANOVER
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] August 16, 2010
It was reported that less than 400,000 crude oil contracts traded hands, which is an extremely small
number for that market this year. Crude oil prices dropped $5.36
a barrel last week, and they negated the previous week’s
technical breakout to the upside. Now, many are asking whether
prices want or need to test the lower reaches of their recent
trading range between $69.50 and $83.00 before triggering the
buying interest to turn higher again.
Open interest changes laast week seemed to bolster the case
for the fundamentals. Rather than strictly following the euro or
equities, it looked like moves lower in those outside influences
had allowed the supply and demand to shine through to push
prices lower. That theory was based on the fact that most of the
losses seen from Tuesday to Tuesday last week came from fresh
selling, rather than just long liquidation by the investor‐heavy
index funds that had helped push prices higher.
But Monday’s activity may force us to reconsider the role of supply and demand in recent price moves. The
fundamentals were just as miserable on Monday as they had been all last week (indeed, for months, or most
of this year), but oil prices were not down dramatically. They were down relatively mildly, although they were
not as near unchanged as either equities or the euro was by the end of Monday’s trading. The final take on
the ongoing role of supply and demand in this market remains to be seen. We may have a clearer idea after
this week’s supply & demand statistics.
The Empire State activity index was “a frankly awful report that will only reinforce fears this could turn out
to be a hard landing,” according to Capital Economics. It showed new orders and shipments numbers had
dropped into negative figures, although we have no idea on what scale these or a number of other indices are
based. Still, the figures were poor.
Investors are unlikely to be
DOE Expectations jumping back into oil with both feet
Category Dow Jones Bloomberg Reuters any time, soon, but there is not yet
Crude Oil dn 1.400 dn 1.000 dn 1.100 mln bbls any tangible sign that they have
Distillate up 0.700 up 1.500 up 1.300 been getting out of existing long
Gasoline dn 0.500 dn 0.250 dn 0.200 holdings. At this stage, they seem to
Utilization dn x.x% dn 0.88% dn 0.5% be holding on, waiting for someone
else to bid prices higher. We do not
get the sense that this is likely to come from supply or demand statistics this week.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
Crude oil prices were lower again on Monday, making it five days running. They are oversold enough to rally from here.
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