BASIC PROBABILITY

CONCEPTS
Lesson 2
Learning Objectives:
illustrate events, and union and intersection
of events
illustrate the probability of a union of two
events and intersection of events
illustrate and find probabilities of mutually
exclusive events

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 Probability is the basis of statistical analysis, in
making forecasts and predictions. It is a value
associated with mathematical or random
experiments.
A mathematical or random experiment is any
procedure or process of obtaining a set of
observations which may be repeated under
basically the same conditions which lead to well
defined outcomes.
Tossing a coin twice and rolling a die are
examples of random experiments.

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 SAMPLE SPACES AND EVENTS
So far, we have been using such words as
outcome, experiment, and event, assuming that
you have an idea of what these terms mean in
mathematics. Let us take a moment to clarify
their meanings when used in a mathematical
context.

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 An experiment is any process or activity
that generates a set of data.
Experiments that are of real interest are
those whose outcomes cannot be predicted with
certainty. In tossing a coin experiment, there are
two possible outcomes, head or tail. Each
repetition of an experiment is called a trial.
Sample space. The set of all possible
outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the
sample space and is denoted by the symbol S.
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 Each outcome in a sample space is called
an element or a member of the sample space
or simply a sample point. If the sample space
has finite number of elements, we can
enumerate the members in a set form called
roster method. Elements are separated by
commas and enclosed by braces. Thus, the
sample space S, of possible outcomes when a
coin is tossed, may be written: S = {H, T}
where H and T refer to head and tail,
respectively.
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 Event. Let S be a sample space for an
experiment. Any subset A of S will be referred to as
an event.
Two events or subsets of S are of particular interest:
S itself and the empty set or null set denoted by .
The sample space corresponding to a physical
event that is certain to occur is called the sure
event or certain event.
The empty set corresponds to physical events that
are impossible to occur. Thus, we refer as an
impossible event.

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EXAMPLE 1:
Consider the experiment and the sample
space for this experiment is
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}

A = {numbers less than 7} = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

B = {numbers divisible by 3} = {3, 6, 9}
C = {numbers between 5 and 10} ={6, 7, 8, 9}
D = {numbers greater than 10} = { } =

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EXAMPLE 2:
A pair of coin is tossed once. What were the
sample points?

SOLUTION 2:
The sample points are:
S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
where H and T are head and tail, respectively.

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 In some experiments, it will be helpful to list
the elements of the sample space systematically
by means of a TREE DIAGRAM.

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 Sample spaces with infinite number of
sample points are described by using the rule
method.
For example, if the possible outcome of an
experiment is the set of universities in the world
offering business courses, our sample space is
written as:
S = {x|x is a university in the world offering
business courses}
The sample space is read as x such that x is a
university offering business courses.

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 SIMPLE AND COMPOUND EVENTS

If an event is a set containing only one

sample space, then it is called a simple event.

A compound event is one that can be

expressed as the union of simple events.

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EXAMPLE 3:
Consider the experiment of drawing a card
at random from an ordinary deck of 52 cards.
Let us consider some sets that may be served
as simple or compound events.
a.) The event of drawing a diamond
simple event
b.) The event of drawing a red card
compound event

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SOLUTION 3:
Let the sample space be:
S = {club, diamond, heart, spade}
a.) A = {diamond}
is a subset of the sample space and is
considered as a simple event.
b.) B = {diamond, heart}
is a compound event which is the union of
two simple events.

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 The rectangle represents the sample space
and circles as events. These events are subsets
of the sample space S. See the illustration
below.

Events of a Sample Space S

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 OPERATIONS WITH EVENTS
As you can see, we sometimes consider
more than one event in a single experiment.
Operations with events will form new events that
are subsets of the sample space as the given
events.
Union of Events. The union of two events A
and B, denoted by the symbol A U B, consists of
all sample points that are in event A, or in event
B, or in both A and B.
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 When referring to the union, we can also
write A or B.
The sample points of A U B may be listed as
in roster method or defined by the rule method.
It can also be illustrated using the Venn diagram
as shown in the figure below. The shaded area
represents A U B.

Union of A
and B

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EXAMPLE 4:
Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and
B = {3, 5, 7, 9}; then
AUB=?

SOLUTION 4:
A U B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9}

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EXAMPLE 5:
Consider S = {a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i}
Let A = {a, b, c, d} and B = {e, f}; then
AUB=?

SOLUTION 5:
A U B = {a, b, c, d, e, f}

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 Intersection of Events. The intersection of
two events A and B, denoted by A B represent
the simultaneous occurrence of both A and B,
and therefore must be those sample points that
are common to both A and B. These sample
points may either be listed or defined in a set
notation. This operation can be illustrated using
the Venn diagram as shown in the next slide.
The shaded region corresponds to the event
A B.
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 Intersection of A and B

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EXAMPLE 6:
Let S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and
B = {3, 5, 7, 9}; then
AB=?

SOLUTION 6:
A B = {3, 5}

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EXAMPLE 7:
Let S = {a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j}
A = {a, b, c, d} and
B = {a, d, g, j}; then
AB=?

SOLUTION 7:
A B = {a, d}

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EXAMPLE 8:
Let S be the set of all letters from the English
alphabet;
A is the set of all vowels letters; and
B is the set of all consonant letters, then
AB=?
SOLUTION 8:
A B have no sample points in common.
Therefore, A B = .

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 Mutually Exclusive Events. Two events A
and B are mutually exclusive if they have no
sample points in common. In symbols,
A B = .
Two mutually exclusive events A and B are
illustrated in the Venn diagram. When we shade
the areas corresponding to the events A and B,
we find no overlapping shaded area
representing the event A B. Hence, it is
empty.
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 Events A and B are mutually exclusive

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EXAMPLE 9:
Let S = {1, 2, 3, , 10}
A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} and
B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}; then
AB=?

SOLUTION 9:
A B = since the two sets have no
sample points in common.

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 Suppose the set of all the students enrolled
in the University San Jose-Recoletos will be our
sample space. Let the subset A corresponds to
the students who are taking statistics subject.
Then the set of all the students who are not
taking the subjects is called the complement of
the set of students taking statistics.
Complement of an Event. The complement
of an event A with respect to S is the set of all
sample points that are not in set A. It is denoted
by Ac.
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 Complement of Event A

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EXAMPLE 10:
Let A be the event that diamond card is
drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards
and let S be the entire deck. What is Ac?

SOLUTION 10:
Then Ac is the event that the card drawn
from the deck that is not diamond.

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 In many cases, the wording of a problem
identifies the appropriate operation of sets.
Remember, when the conjunction or is used, the
union of two or more sets is involved. The
conjunction and (or but) entails a set
intersection; and the word not calls for a set
complement.

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EXAMPLE 1:
In a survey, 100 students were asked to
answer the following questionnaire:
Have you joined any math contests this year?
Have you joined any writing contests this year?
If 68 students circled Y for math, 42 circled Y for
writing, and 27 circled Y for both subjects, how
many students circled N for both questions?
17 students

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SOLVING PROBLEMS USING VENN DIAGRAMS
EXAMPLE 2:
In a survey of 120 people, 55 said they had
bread for breakfast that morning, 40 said they
had coffee for breakfast, and 70 said they had
bread or coffee for breakfast.
a.) How many had both bread and coffee for
breakfast? 25 people
b.) How many had bread but no coffee? 30 people
c.) How many had neither bread nor coffee for
breakfast? 50 people

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SOLVING PROBLEMS USING VENN DIAGRAMS
EXAMPLE 3:
In a survey of 500 people, pet food
manufacturer found that 200 owned a dog but
not a cat, 150 owned a cat but not a dog, and
100 owned neither a dog nor a cat.
a.) How many owned both a dog and a cat?
50 people
b.) How many owned a dog? 250 people

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SOLVING PROBLEMS USING VENN DIAGRAMS
EXAMPLE 4:
In a survey, students were asked about their favorite subjects.
The results are as follows:
132 students like Math
163 students like Science
73 students like English
51 students like Science and English
36 students like Math and Science
38 students like Math and English
22 students like all three subjects
Determine:
a.) the number of students who like Math only; 80 students
b.) the number of students who like Science only; 98 students
c.) the number of students who like English only; 6 students
d.) the total number of students in the survey. 265 students

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SOLVING PROBLEMS USING VENN DIAGRAMS
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