2.

1 Market Analysis of Non-Needle Injector in Indonesia

For determining the production capacity of our plant, we have to consider and
calculate the demand and supply of our product first. This calculation is based on
survey and market analysis also the needs of vaccination in Indonesia.

2.1.1 Demand of Non-Needle Injector for Vaccination in Indonesia

Our product is influenza vaccine patch. Our main target of customers are
customers with recommendation based on regulations of Indonesia Minister Of
Health, number 42, year 2013 about implementation of immunization are as follow:
1. All people aged 65 years
2. Children with chronic illnesses such as asthma, diabetes, kidney disease and
weak immune system
3. Children and adults who suffer from chronic metabolic diseases, including
diabetes, renal dysfunction, haemoglobinopathies and immunodeficiency
4. People who can transmit influenza virus to someone who has high risk of
having complications associated with influenza, such as health workers
5. Influenza immunization can be given to healthy children aged 6-23 the

Government recommended to the list above to conduct an influenza vaccination

every year. Based on Sensus Penduduk, Indonesia population based on gender
and age in 2010 is shown this figure below.
 Figure 2.1 Year-Based population of Indonesian people
(Source: Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia, 2010)

Because we cannot get the population data for 2015 until our plant lifetime, which
is 2027, we have to forecast the population based on data in 2010. Badan Pusat
Statistik Indonesia stated that rate of population growth in Indonesia is 1.49% /
year. So, the population of Indonesian people in 2015 can be calculated and listed
in Table 2.1. Influenza vaccine is also mandatory for healthworkers, Hajj and
Umroh pilgrims by government of Indonesia. The data of pilgrims are available in
Ministry of Religion website. The number of pilgrims are reduced from 2012-2020
due to expansion of Masjidil Haram. After 2020, the capacity will be increased until
50 percent.

Table 2.1 The estimation number of Indonesian Citizen by own customers

WHO RECOMMENDATION Pilgrims
YEAR
65 Years 6-11 Years 6-45 Years < 2 Years Healthworkers Hajj Umroh
2010 4694031 32321912 156909021 11339351 No data 211000 1375000
2011 4763972 32803509 159246965 11508307 No data 211000 1375000
2012 4834955 33292281 161619745 11679781 No data 168800 1100000
2013 4906996 33788336 164027879 11853810 No data 168800 1100000
2014 4980110 34291782 166471895 12030432 No data 168800 1100000
2015 5054314 34802730 168952326 12209685 104712 168800 1100000
 2016 5129623 35321291 171469716 12391609 106272 168800 1100000
2017 5206055 35847578 174024614 12576244 107856 168800 1100000
2018 5283625 36381707 176617581 12763630 109463 168800 1100000
2019 5362351 36923794 179249183 12953808 111094 168800 1100000
2020 5442250 37473959 181919996 13146820 112749 316500 1100000
2021 5523339 38032321 184630604 13342708 114429 316500 1375000
2022 5605637 38599002 187381600 13541514 116134 316500 1375000
2023 5689161 39174127 190173586 13743283 117864 316500 1375000
2024 5773930 39757822 193007172 13948058 119621 316500 1375000
2025 5859961 40350214 195882979 14155884 121403 316500 1375000
2026 5947275 40951432 198801635 14366806 123212 316500 1375000
2027 6035889 41561608 201763780 14580872 125048 316500 1375000
(Source: Reproduced from Data Source)

We will take 2027 as our basis to calculate the total demand. We choose this year
because we want to estimate the highest demand of influenza vaccines due to
population growth. The total demand of influenza vaccination in Indonesia for 2027
is 5939900 vaccines per year or we can round it up to 6000000 vaccines.

2.1.2 Supply of Non-Needle Injector for Vaccination in Indonesia

After finding data, we found a journal, Journal Plos Influenza Vaccination
Guidelines And Vaccine Sales In Southeast Asia: 2008-2011 that gives data for
supply of influenza vaccines in several countries in Asia, including Indonesia. The
data also includes formula to predict the future value of the supply. The forecast
will be done until year 2027.
Table 2.3 Supply data
PERSON
YEAR INJECTED/100000 POPULATION
PERSON
2010 152 237600000
2011 181 241140240
2012 193 244733300
2013 209,2 248379900
2014 225,4 252080800
2015 241,6 255836900
2016 257,8 259648900
 2017 274 263517700
2018 290,2 267444200
2019 306,4 271429200
2020 322,6 275473500
2021 338,8 279578100
2022 355 283743900
2023 371,2 287971700
2024 387,4 292262500
2025 403,6 296617300
2026 419,8 301036900
2027 436 305522400
(Source: Plos, 2011)

The total supply of influenza vaccines in Indonesia on 2027 is around 1337208,

rounded up 1350000 vaccines.

2.1.3 Production Capacity of Non-Needle Injector for Vaccination Plant

The gap between the demand and supply will be used as our base calculation
to determine our plant capacity. Based on supply and demand analysis, Indonesia
still needs around 4650000 vaccines per year.
We would like to manufacture our product with production capacity of 45%
from the differences of supply and demand in Indonesia. We believe that our
product is interesting for the target customers. However, we decided not to produce
the entire margin of demand and supply, because our plant is still new and we want
to see the market response after we produce the product. The calculation of
influenza vaccine patch capacity is shown in table below:

Table 2.4 Production capacity calculation

45% of the margin of demand 2010000 packages per year
and supply
335 days per year
Working Time
24 hours per day
Production Capacity 6000 patches per day
(Source: Authors personal data)
We also did benchmarking with the second largest transdermal patch in Europe,
Doyen Medipharm. They produce 16 million patches per year, or around 50000
patches per day while our production capacity is 6000 per day. Because we are still
new player in patch industry, taking around 10% of production capacity of second
largest transdermal patch in Europe is considerably logic.