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to point to differences over Iran as a sign of Turkish divergence territory from proliferation trends around the region. So far,
on one of the few foreign policy issues where there has been a considerations of Turkey’s own exposure to these trends has
concerted European approach. This would signal an important been largely absent from the Turkish debate, which has been
departure from the pattern of recent years, in which, with the more about politics and trade, than defense per se.
important exception of Cyprus, Ankara has been essentially in
the European mainstream on most international issues, from The hard security implications of nuclear and missile develop-
Afghanistan to the Middle East peace process. A visible rift ments on Turkey’s borders may be more difficult to side step
on Iran policy could pose new challenges for Turkey’s already in the months ahead, and this could encourage convergence
troubled EU candidacy. Turks, too, could find an increasingly in apparently divergent Turkish and Euroatlantic approaches
“hawkish” European stance on Iran at odds with the country’s to Iran. Indeed, other issues and developments may push this
changing worldview. In this sense, Iran may be the most criti- evolution along, including the coming NATO debate over
cal near-term test of the proposition that Turkey’s new regional nuclear weapons and strategy, new approaches to arms control
activism is compatible with an evolving EU neighborhood and missile defense, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
policy. review. The Nuclear Security Summit should be seen as the
start of a series of high-level international interactions in which
Third, Turkey’s decision to pursue a more active and indepen- Turkey will have distinctive stakes, and will need to remain
dent diplomatic approach, in cooperation with Brazil, also says present at the table.
a good deal about the new Turkish foreign policy. The debate
over the new look in Turkish strategy has focused overwhelm-
Dr. Ian O. Lesser, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, GMF
ingly on the question of the balance between Turkey’s Western
and Middle Eastern orientations. But Turkey’s new interna- Dr. Lesser is a GMF senior transatlantic fellow in Washington, DC,
tional policy vocabulary also has strong echoes of non-align- where he focuses on Mediterranean affairs, Turkey, and international
ment and references to the global south, along the lines of the security issues. Prior to joining GMF, he was vice president of the
discourse in Brazil, India, China, and South Africa. The choice Pacific Council on International Policy and spent over a decade at the
of Brazil as a partner in alternative diplomacy on the Iran issue RAND Corporation. From 1994 to 1995, Dr. Lesser was a member of
may well have strategic as well as tactical significance. Both the U.S. State Department’s Policy Planning staff.
countries hold rotating seats on the UN Security Council, and
both share the perspective, voiced by Foreign Minister Ahmet About GMF
Davutoğlu in Washington, that an Iran sanctions package is The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) is a nonpartisan
being negotiated among the five permanent members, without American public policy and grantmaking institution dedicated to pro-
much input from others on the Council. It seems that Turkey, moting greater cooperation and understanding between North America
like Brazil, is beginning to see these and other issues through and Europe. Founded in 1972 through a gift from Germany, as a per-
the lens of global governance, and not simply regional dynam- manent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong
ics. This, too, may say a lot about the evolving Turkish world- presence on both sides of the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in
view—and Ankara’s aspirations. Washington, DC, GMF has seven offices in Europe: Berlin, Bratislava,
Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, and Bucharest.
With the experience of Iraq in the 1990s firmly in mind, there
can be little question that Turkey sees costs flowing from new About the On Turkey Series
international sanctions on Iran. The protracted international
containment of a nuclear or “near-nuclear” Iran clearly will GMF’s On Turkey is an ongoing series of analysis briefs about Turkey’s
not fit well with Turkey’s commercially-driven neighborhood current political situation and its future. GMF provides regular analysis
policy. If allegations of Syrian transfers of Scud missiles to briefs by leading Turkish, European, and American writers and intellec-
Hezbollah in Lebanon turn out to be accurate, the Western tuals, with a focus on dispatches from on-the-ground Turkish observers.
opening to Damascus may also be thrown into reverse. But To access the latest briefs, please visit our web site at
Turkey has security as well as political and economic stakes www.gmfus.org/turkey or subscribe to our mailing list at
in these settings. Even against a backdrop of greatly improved http://database.gmfus.org/reaction.
Turkish-Iranian ties, the Turkish leadership—and the Turk-
ish public—will remain sensitive to physical threats to Turkish