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Confidence interval
The term confidence interval is widely used in statistics and probability. The term
actually denotes a range bound by two values, in which specified percentage of the parameter
under consideration is bound to be. For example, if you are having a data which is about the
obtained marks of a class of students and the data specifies a 95% confidence interval according
to distribution of the probability, then the confidence interval will be that interval bound by two
values (calculated according to type of probability distribution) in which there are 95% chances
Applied Social Psychology (BASP). In this method a null hypothesis is set first and the
is set and Null Hypothesis is tested using conventional levels of probability i.e. 5% or 1% etc. If
the value of P comes out to be equal or lower than the conventional level, Null Hypothesis is
However, there has been objections upon the effectiveness of NHSTP by some circles
associated with BASP. For example, one of the objections upon NHSTP is that a confidence
interval greater than 95% is too big for a research work to be designated as high quality research
work as a confidence interval larger than 95% will contain more values than it ought to be in a
standard research datas distribution. For this reason, BASP circles have been demanding the ban
of NHSTP and hence the ban of confidence intervals, consequently (Trafimow & Marks, 2015)
Strategy choice
The important steps of the strategy which I have chosen from Bazerman and
1. In the first step a comparison group containing values of the parameter under
consideration from the past is selected. Current decision or forecast is compared with this
2. As all the values of the comparison group are known, its mean as well as standard
deviation is calculated. From these two values, the distribution type of the data is
3. In this step, a forecast is made by the experts based on the decision which has been taken.
4. This step is quite difficult as well as critical in nature. In this step the results of the
forecast are assessed. This assessment may be done in more than one ways. One way to
assess the result of the forecast in many cases is to compare it with the past data i.e. the
comparison group.
5. In this step, the initial decision which is based on the intuition, is improved by adjusting
certain factors which are calculated after comparing the results of the forecast with that of
the comparison group or with that of some other analytical tool. In this way bias error of
The above guidelines are sufficient for anyone looking to adjust his intuition and a bias which
http://wikiofscience.wikidot.com/pseudoscience1:null-hypothesis-significance-testing
David Trafimow & Michael Marks. (2015). Editorial. Basic and Applied Social
Psychology. 37:1-2