1
Evaluation of the Reliability of Wind Power
Generation in a Passive Redundant System
Abstract Wind power is steadily gaining popularity on account
of its eco-friendliness and very low operating cost. However, the
variability of wind is one aspect that needs to be worked on, as is
the reliability of supply of wind power generation. In this paper an
approach has been suggested to model the wind speed of Dhahran,
KSA, and based on that model, evaluate the reliability of supply of
a wind turbine generator. Statistical distributions are used to
model the wind speed. The failure rate and several other reliability
parameters and indices of the wind generation system are
evaluated, both as a stand-alone system and in a passive redundant
system with a grid as backup, using Monte Carlo Simulations. A
numerical case study of the whole method has been performed on
the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) with simulations being
carried out on MATLAB software.
Index Terms WTG, Reliability, Monte-Carlo Simulation,
Weibull Distribution, Passive Redundancy
I. INTRODUCTION
n the wake of the realizations that fossil fuels are depleting
I and may not be available for future generations, as well as the
environmental harm carbon emissions are causing, the focus of
the energy sector is slowly shifting toward renewable energy.
These are naturally occurring energy sources on the planet that
are not depleted by use. Over time, wind has proven to be an
effective renewable energy source and is gaining more and
more popularity.
However, the unpredictability of wind makes it difficult to
integrate wind generators in to the grid on a large scale to serve
the base load. The errors in forecasting wind power may lead to
very high commercial risks. Hence, there is a need for proper
and more accurate modeling of wind power behavior and
effective reliability analysis of wind generation systems in
order to facilitate their penetration into the electricity grid.
Considerable amount of work has been done in this area before.
Though all previous works have developed the wind speed
model based on previous historical data, the methodology to do
so has been varied. The subsequent development of the wind
power model can also be incongruent, for instance, the
development of the Markov model in which authors have
alternated between two- and three-state models and used
different techniques to calculate transition rates.
In [1], wind speed data is classified into a discrete number of
classes (4). These classes correspond to a range of values of
speed. After modeling the wind speed, a two-state Markov
model is used to evaluate reliability. Similar to this paper is [2]
in which clustering techniques are used to reduce the number of
Shaik Abdur Rehman Imran and Mohammad Al Muhaini are with the King
Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia and he can
be reached at muhaini@kfupm.edu.sa.
levels to be analyzed in wind speed. The figure below
demonstrates the same. The equation used for obtaining
transition rates is also given.
ij = (1)
In [3], the wind speed is modeled based on the Monte Carlo
Simulation technique and is seen to fit a Weibull distribution.
The wind speed model is then converted into the wind power
model. For the Markov process for reliability evaluation, a
three-state model of the wind turbine is used.
The paper [4] uses regression tools to forecast wind power
from available historical data. It applies Auto Regressive
Moving Average (ARMA), Moving Average (MA), Normal
Distribution, observed wind speed and mean observed wind
speed to model the behavior of wind. The reliability is indices
calculated on an RBTS are Loss Of Load Expectation (LOLE),
Loss Of Energy Expectation (LOEE) and Loss of Load
Frequency (LOLF). Historical data from three sites was used in
[5] to obtain a common wind speed model that fits all sites.
After modeling wind speed, a simplified six-step analytical
technique was developed to model a multistate wind turbine
generator (WTG) and perform reliability analysis.
The paper [6] developed a model for a wind farm, takes into
account the spatial and temporal dynamics of wind turbine
outputs. A finite-state Markov chain model was then developed
to forecast wind power.
The effect of stochastic renewable energy resources (such as
wind) on the power distribution system has been studied in [7].
The Markov model developed incorporates mechanical failure
and switching probabilities as well to develop an encoded
Markov cut-set algorithm to quantify the effects of DG on
reliability indices of the RBTS.
This paper aims at evaluating the reliability of supply of a
wind turbine generator. To do so, the variability of the wind
speed is the first aspect that needs to be dealt with. Historical
wind speed data is collected and a wind speed model is obtained
using statistical distributions. The wind speed model is utilized
to obtain a wind power model. The model is then put to use to
determine the reliability of the system. In this paper, Monte
Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the reliability of supply
and the failure rate for different load points on an RBTS for 1)
a wind generator operating as a stand-alone system and 2) a
wind generator operating in a passive redundant system with
the power grid as backup.

II. PROBLEM DEFINITION
Wind has a very unpredictable nature when compared to
other renewable sources of energy. This variability doesnt
necessarily make wind power extraction more difficult.
However, it puts a constraint on the amount of dependability on
wind power. A major difficulty arises in understanding the
behavior of winds. Highly irregular patterns make it a necessity
for wind speeds to be modeled using methods of stochastic
processes, regression analysis, artificial neural networks, etc.
The wind energy conversion systems (WECS) are well
equipped to deal with this variability in wind speeds. They are
designed to operate within specific ranges of wind speeds and
produce corresponding output powers. A typical wind turbine
characteristic plot is shown below.
Fig. 1 Wind speed-power curve for WTG
As observed in Fig.1, the WTG produces no power for wind
speeds lower than the cut-in speeds. For wind speeds higher
than the cut-in speed, the WTG power produced increases
exponentially till the wind speed reaches the value of rated
speed of the WTG. From this rated speed till the cut-out speed,
the WTG produces rated power. When wind speeds are higher
than the cut-off speed (during severe weather conditions), the
turbine blades are locked in place and prevented from rotating
to maintain stability of the tower. Understanding the working
of the WTG is of great significance in modeling the reliability
of the system, and the same will be demonstrated in the
following sections.
Though the WECS manages to operate with variable wind
speeds, the output power provided will still be stochastic in
nature. The sustainability of power is the most significant
criteria when choosing among power sources, and wind energy
is far behind conventional fossil fuels in this aspect. Hence, a
detailed study on reliability of supply when incorporating wind
power is required so as to assess its impacts and present options
to exercise that will lead to the integration of wind energy
systems without compromising the reliability of supply.
III. METHODOLOGY AND FORMULATION
In this section, the process of solving the problem will be
outlined and necessary mathematical formulations will be
provided. The first step in the process, as mentioned earlier, is
the modeling of the wind speed. The wind speed data used was
measured over a period of 5 years from 1998 to 2003 at
Dhahran, KSA. A histogram was plotted for the wind speed,
and the most suitable distribution found for it was the Weibull
distribution.
2
f(v) = (/) * v-1 * exp[-(v/)] (2)
In which v is wind speed, is shape parameter and is the
scale parameter. In general, wind speeds have a shape
parameter of 2. The wind power available to the turbine is
calculated as:
P=0.5**A*v3*Cb (3)
where is the air density, A is the area swept by the blades, v is
the velocity of the rotor and Cb is Betz constant. To plot the
WTG characteristics, the following formulas are used.
0 0 < v < vci
Power = Rated power *(v3 vci3)/(vr3-vci3) vci < v < vr (4)
Rated power vr < v < vco
where vci is the cut-in speed of the WTG, vr is the rated speed of
the WTG and vco is the cut-out speed of the WTG. This data,
along with the rated power of the wind turbine, is obtained from
the manufacturer.
By combining the PDF of wind speed and the power
characteristic, the probability distribution function of the wind
power is determined. These values obtained from this PDF will
be essential in performing the Monte Carlo simulation.
To perform Monte Carlo simulation, a fixed number of
random numbers and/or samples are generated. These samples
have a random distribution. Since the likelihood of each level
of wind power output is known, specific ranges of the random
samples are assigned to the power levels they are supposed to
represent accordingly. As the system is simulated over and
over, the number of instances occurring of each level of power
is determined. Having completed the Monte Carlo simulation,
we now check the reliability of supply of WTG. The load is
varied over the range of the rated capacity of the WTG. For each
interval, the number of failures and successes are counted to
determine the failure rate and the repair rate. Power produced
being higher than the required load is considered a success and
vice versa [8].
Failure rate () = (5)
.
Mean Time To Failure = 1/ (6)
Repair rate () = (7)
.
Mean Time To Repair = 1/ (8)
Reliability = e-t (9)
After computing the parameters for the wind generator as a
stand-alone system at each load point, its behavior in a passive
redundant system is studied. A block diagram of a passive
redundant system is shown in Fig. 2.
 3

The system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) is

the distribution system reliability index that is used for
reference in this paper. Mathematically it is represented as:

SAIFI =

Fig. 2. Block diagram of a passive redundant system IV. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
The Weibull parameters for the probability distribution of
In a passive redundant system, one component is considered hourly wind speeds obtained from Dhahran K.S.A, for the year
as the primary component, which operates alone. During failure 2013 are: Scale Factor = 5.304, Shape factor = 2.2810. The plot
of the primary component, the switch activates and connects for the Weibull distribution and histogram for the wind speed
with the secondary or back-up component while the primary data is represented in one plot as shown below in Fig.4.
component repairs. This results in an increased reliability of
supply. The reliability of a passive redundant system is given Weibull distribution of wind speed
as [9]:

R(t) = R1(t) + Rsw * (1/2-1)*( R1(t) R2(t)) (10) 0.25

where 1 is the failure rate of the WTG, which is the primary 0.2

Probability Density
supply while 2 is the failure rate of the supply from the grid,
0.15
which is being used as secondary or backup supply. RSW is the
reliability of the switch, and t is the time period of study.
0.1
The 11 kV side of Bus 2 of the RBTS is used to perform
reliability analysis. The description of the RBTS and system
0.05
data is obtained from [8] and [10], and the single line diagram
of the subsystem is shown in Fig.3. The source is assumed to
0
be 100% reliable. Using the available failure rates and minimal 0 2 4 6 8 10
Wind speed
12 14 16 18 20

tie-set method, we compute the equivalent reliability and failure

Fig. 4 Weibull distribution and histogram for the wind speed data
rate of the conventional grid supply at each load point. After
doing so, we install at each load point location a WTG (so as to
Next, the WTG characteristics are plotted as shown in Fig.5.
operate as a passive redundant system with the grid) and obtain
The cut-in speed of 3 m/s, rated speed of 6 m/s and cut-out
reliability parameters and indices.
speed of 20 m/s characterize the turbine of rated capacity 2
LP 4
MW. In Fig.5, the turbine power has been normalized to a scale
11
of 1 so that we may be able to plot it along with the wind speed
LP 7

6 10
PDF and draw conclusions about the behavior of the turbine
LP 3
9
LP 6 LP 9
15 when subjected to wind speed at the location in question.
5 7
8 Turbine Power Curve

4 14
100% Reliable Source
LP 5
1
LP 2 LP 8
3 1 12 13
2
0.8
Probability Density
Normalized power

F1 F2

LP 1
F4 F3 0.6
LP 18 LP 11

26 16
0.4
19
30
27 20
LP 19 LP 16 LP 12
31 29 18
28 17 0.2

21
32
LP 17 LP 10 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Wind speed
35 24 22
LP 20 LP 2 1 LP 13
33 34
36 25
Fig. 5 WTG power curve
23

To determine frequency of occurrence of each power level as

LP 22 LP 15 LP 14
explained previously, a 10,000 sample Monte Carlo simulation
Fig. 3 Single line diagram of the RBTS-Bus 2
was performed, and the results of which are displayed in Fig.6.
 4

4
Monte Carlo Simulation x 10 Variation of MTTR with increase in Load
5000 3.5

4500
3
4000
Frequency (or) Number of samples

Mean Time To Repair(hrs)

3500 2.5

3000
2
2500

2000 1.5

1500
1
1000

500 0.5
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Load in Watts 6
0 x 10
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Power in Watts 6
Fig. 9 Variation of MTTR with the increase in the load
x 10
Fig. 6 Frequency of occurrence of each power level To estimate the reliability of supply of the WTG when used
as a primary source in a passive redundant system with the
The next step is considering the WTG as a stand-alone power power grid as a secondary source, we use the data from the
supply and determining the variation of failure rate, repair rate, RBTS discussed above. The reliability and failure rate is
MTTF, MTTR and reliability over a load of 0 to the rated determined at each load point within the time period of 1 year.
capacity of the WTG which is 2 MW. The Figs. 7-9 below show The table below shows the failure and repair rates of the
the variation of reliability, time to failure and time to repair for transmission lines [10]. Using the method of minimal tie sets,
different levels of load. It is observed from the plots that the we reduce the network for each load point and obtain the
WTG as a stand-alone system will prove to be a very unreliable reliability and failure rate at each load point.
supply if used at the location in study; the reason behind this
being low wind speeds observed in that area. Therefore, it is Table I RBTS Reliability data
imperative that the WTG work in tandem with another source Failure Repair Rate Repair
Line
Rate(f/y) (r/y) time (h)
of supply in order to attain an efficient level of reliability. 2, 6, 10, 14, 17, 21, 25,
0.039 1752 5
28, 30, 34
Variation of Reliability with increase in Load 1, 4, 7, 9, 12, 16, 19, 22,
1 0.04875 1752 5
24, 27, 29, 32, 35
3, 5, 8, 11, 13, 15, 18, 20,
0.052 1752 5
0.9 23, 26, 31, 33, 36

0.8
The table below shows the average and peak demand at each
Reliability of supply

load point and the type of customer at each location. From Fig.
0.7
7, it is evident that unlike grid supply, which maintains a
constant reliability for all power levels, the WTG will have
0.6
different reliabilities for average and peak load.
Table II RBTS Customer data
0.5 Number of Average load Peak Load
Loads Type
customers (MW) (MW)
0.4 1 210 Residential 0.535 0.8668
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Load in Watts 6
2 210 Residential 0.535 0.8668
x 10
3 210 Residential 0.535 0.8668
Fig. 7 Variation of reliability with the increase in the load
4 1 Gov/Inst 0.566 0.9167
5 1 Gov/Inst 0.566 0.9167
4

3
x 10 Variation of MTTF with increase in Load 6 10 Commercial 0.454 0.75
7 10 Commercial 0.454 0.75
2.8 8 1 Small user 1 1.6279
2.6 9 1 Small user 1.15 1.8721
10 210 Residential 0.535 0.8668
Mean Time To Failure(hrs)

2.4
11 210 Residential 0.535 0.8668
2.2 12 200 Residential 0.45 0.7291
2 13 1 Gov/Inst 0.566 0.9167
14 1 Gov/Inst 0.566 0.9167
1.8
15 10 Commercial 0.454 0.75
1.6 16 10 Commercial 0.454 0.75
1.4
17 200 Residential 0.45 0.7291
18 200 Residential 0.45 0.7291
1.2
19 200 Residential 0.45 0.7291
1 20 1 Gov/Inst 0.566 0.9167
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
Load in Watts 6
x 10
21 1 Gov/Inst 0.566 0.9167
Fig. 8 Variation of MTTF with the increase in the load 22 10 Commercial 0.454 0.75
 5

The table below shows the computed values of reliabilities Failure Rates for Commercial Loads
0.5
for five cases of operation. The period under consideration is 1
0.45
year. When wind is integrated with the power grid, the grid is
assumed to be the backup system and the reliability is 0.4
Grid only
calculated using (10). The reliability of the switching system is 0.35 WTG only
Grid and WTG
assumed to be 100%.

Failure rate (f/y)

0.3

0.25
Table III Reliability of load points
0.2
Reliability
Grid Grid 0.15
WTG WTG
Grid and and
Loads only only 0.1
only WTG WTG
(Avg) (Peak)
(Avg) (Peak) 0.05
1 0.9806 0.62 0.565 0.9960 0.9953
0
2 0.9769 0.62 0.565 0.9952 0.9944 6 7 15 16 22
Load points/locations
3 0.9717 0.62 0.565 0.9941 0.9932
4 0.9754 0.618 0.557 0.9948 0.9939 Fig. 12 Failure rate for commercial loads
5 0.9706 0.618 0.557 0.9939 0.9928
6 0.9715 0.636 0.583 0.9943 0.9935 Failure Rates for Government/Institutional Loads
7 0.9725 0.636 0.583 0.9945 0.9937 0.5

8 0.9769 0.5495 0.495 0.9942 0.9934 0.45

9 0.9725 0.535 0.4785 0.9929 0.9919
0.4
10 0.9742 0.62 0.565 0.9946 0.9938 Grid only
11 0.9615 0.62 0.565 0.9920 0.9907 0.35 WTG only
12 0.9615 0.636 0.583 0.9924 0.9912 Grid and WTG

Failure rate (f/y)

0.3
13 0.9573 0.618 0.557 0.9911 0.9895
14 0.9562 0.618 0.557 0.9908 0.9892 0.25

15 0.9586 0.636 0.583 0.9918 0.9905 0.2

16 0.9701 0.636 0.583 0.9941 0.9931
0.15
17 0.9735 0.636 0.587 0.9947 0.9940
18 0.9647 0.636 0.587 0.9930 0.9920 0.1
19 0.9604 0.636 0.587 0.9921 0.9910
0.05
20 0.9555 0.618 0.557 0.9908 0.9891
21 0.9554 0.618 0.557 0.9907 0.9890 0
4 5 13 14 20 21
22 0.9543 0.636 0.583 0.991 0.9895 Load points/locations

Fig. 13 Failure rate for industrial loads

Figs. 10-12 display the failure rates obtained for different
categories of loads (i.e. residential, commercial, industrial and The index SAIFI was calculated for multiple scenarios and
government institutions) at average load functioning during the the results are displayed in Fig. 14. It is observed that SAIFI is
aforementioned cases of operation. The failure rates are considerably low for commercial and industrial customers and
observed to be lowest for grid-integrated wind energy systems. government institutions. This is due to the comparatively lesser
number of customers in these categories compared to
0.5
Failure Rates for Residential Loads residential loads. The SAIFI for residential loads operating
upon wind energy only, owing to a high number of customers
0.45
and low reliability, has a substantially high value of 0.4528
0.4
Grid only failures per year per customer and is thus out of the scope of the
0.35 WTG only graph.
Grid and WTG
Failure rate (f/y)

0.3 SAIFI for different scenarios

0.25 0.03 Residential

Commercial
0.2
Institutional
0.025 Industrial
0.15

0.1
0.02
0.05
SAIFI

0 0.015
1 2 3 10 11 12 17 18 19
Load points/locations

Fig. 10 Failure rate for residential loads 0.01

0.005

0
Wind only Grid only Wind and Grid
Type of supply

Fig. 14 SAIFI for different scenarios

 6

V. CONCLUSIONS
In conclusion, it can be said that wind power is not an
efficient source of energy when used as a stand-alone system to
serve load. However, if integrated along with the existing grid
of conventional generation, the reliability indices are bound to
improve. The passive redundancy approach was adopted in this
paper to integrate the WTG and the grid. The location in
question was found not to hold much promise as far as
extraction of wind power goes. Since Dhahran is a coastal city,
an analysis based on offshore locations nearby can prove to be
more fruitful since wind speeds have been observed to be higher
offshore.

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