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INTRODUCTION TO VALUATION

C O N F I DEN T I AL

AN D

P R I VAT E

ST R I C T L Y

Overview of the session

Introduction

Trading multiples

Transaction multiples

VAL U AT I O N

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

1

What does the term value mean?1

the material or monetary worth of a thing; the amount at which it may be estimated in

terms of some medium of exchange or other standard of a like in nature

VAL U AT I O N

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

1 Extracts taken from The Valuation of Business, Shares and Other Equity; Wayne Lonergan

2 Gold Coast Selection Trust v. Humphrey; 1948

2

Why valuation is important?

Acquisitions Divestitures

How much should we How much should we

pay to buy the sell our

company? company/division for?

Fairness opinions

Research

Is the price offered for

Should our clients buy,

our company/division

sell or hold positions

fair (from a financial

in a given security?

point of view)?

Valuation

Public equity

Hostile defense offerings

Is our company For how much should

undervalued/vulnerable we sell our

to a raider company/division in

VAL U AT I O N

Debt offerings

New business What is the underlying

presentations value of the

business/assets

Various applications

against which debt is

being issued?

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

3

J.P. Morgan uses a number of valuation methodologies

Valuation

methodologies

comparable transactions cash flow buyout/recap Other

companies analysis analysis analysis analysis

Valuation Valuation business financial/LBO analysis

buyer

Value based on Value based on Present value of Break-up analysis

market trading multiples paid for projected free Value based on

multiples of comparable cash flows debt repayment Historical trading

comparable companies in sale and return on performance

companies transactions Incorporates both equity investment

VAL U AT I O N

Applied using Includes control long-term valuation

historical and premium expected Discounted future

prospective performance share price

multiples

Risk in cash flows

EPS impact

Does not include a and capital

different bet.

T O

trading premium & in discount rate model

I N T R O DU C T I O N

transaction

premium

4

The final recommended valuation is a triangulation of

each of the methodologies

Determining

Determining a

a final

final valuation

valuation recommendation

recommendation is

is a

a process

process of

of triangulation

triangulation using

using insight

insight from

from each

each of

of the

the relevant

relevant

valuation

valuation methodologies

methodologies

Utilises

Utilises market

market

Analyses

Analyses the

the trading multiples

trading multiples

present

present value of

value of aa 1. Discounted from

from publicly

publicly traded

traded

company's

company's free

free cash flow 2. Publicly Traded companies

companies to to derive

derive

cash

cash flow.

flow. Comparable value.

value.

Companies

Used

Used to

to determine

determine range

range

3. Comparable of

of potential value for aa

potential value for

Utilises

Utilises data

data from

from M&A Acquisition

VAL U AT I O N

M&A company

company based

based on

on

transactions

transactions involving

involving Transactions 4. Leveraged maximum leverage

maximum leverage

similar

similar companies.

companies. Buy Out capacity.

capacity.

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

5

The valuation summary is one of the most important

slides in a valuation presentation

The

The science

science is

is performing

performing each

each valuation

valuation correctly,

correctly, the

the art

art is

is using

using each

each method

method to

to develop

develop a

a recommendation

recommendation

Implied Implied

Adjusted Management

EBITDA EBITDA

Valuation range: A$240 $260mm multiples multiples

Multiple of management 09F EBITDA: 6.8x 7.3x

Multiple of X team 09F EBITDA: 7.3x 7.9x Jun-09F EBITA: A$33.0m1 A$35.5mm2

Discounted Cash Flow (base case) 250 265 7.6x 8.0x 7.0x 7.5x

- JPMorgan estimate

- Vendor expectations 270 300 8.2x 9.1x 7.6x 8.5x

VAL U AT I O N

First round bid range 220 240 6.7x 7.3x 6.2x 6.8x

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

2 Based on the management 30-Sep-08 presentation Jun-09F EBITDA of A$35.5mm

6

Overview of the session

Introduction

Trading multiples

Transaction multiples

VAL U AT I O N

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

7

DCF allows for rigorous analysis of value

DCF - mechanism used to estimate the value of an asset by discounting the estimated future

cash flows generated by the asset by a rate that reflects the risk of the cash flows

Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) model = present value of expected future cash flows

Forces an understanding of the value drivers of the asset (revenue and cost) of the underlying

business/unit

Can divide value into components

Value of various businesses, product lines or divisions (sum of the parts valuation)

Value of free cash flows versus terminal value (TV can be very important)

VAL U AT I O N

Various cases can be evaluated

what key dactors

Upside (favourable) versus downside (unfavourable) cases

need to do more

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

8

DCF has three key components

1.

1. Estimate

Estimate the

the cash

cash flows

flows

n

FCFFt FCFFn +1

V = t

+ n

t =1 (1 + WACC ) (WACC g )(1 + WACC )

FCFF = EBIT (1 + ) + Depreciation Capital expenditure Working capital

Attempt to move from accounting profit to cash flows

Minus outflows of cash that do not appear on the income statement (e.g. capital expenditure)

VAL U AT I O N

n n

Dt Terminal value Dt Dt +1

E = t

+ t

E = t

+ t

T O

t =1 (1 + re ) (1 + re ) t =1 (1 + re ) ( re g )(1 + re )

I N T R O DU C T I O N

usuful for financial Need to forecast the entire income statement to get to expected dividends

institution. e.g.)

bank, what is the Not used as much in practice but commonly used to value financial institutions

maximum dividend

however

maintaining the 9

sustaining growth

Projecting cash flows requires in-depth understanding of

the business and the industry

Industry

Major opportunities and risks

outlook

How does this impact on the company in question?

Pricing flexibility

Competitive

Possible market share changes

position

Cost structure

reinvestment Required capital expenditures

needs Discretionary investments

Expansion

VAL U AT I O N

Development costs

opportunities

Economies of scale

T O

Sources of

Equity research analyst reports and industry sector reports

information

I N T R O DU C T I O N

10

Use of financial statement analysis in practice

For valuation, remember that our focus is primarily on future not past performance

what is the driver

of the perfomance However, the past can be useful in assessing the reasonableness of future forecasts

in the past, is it

going to last? Example: a pharmaceutical company versus an infrastructure company

Profitability ratios

Risk analysis ratios (e.g. financial risk ratios)

e.g. if the inerest

coverage below 2 Gearing and interest coverage

times? more

VAL U AT I O N

garentee required Can impact on a firms credit rating which can in turn impact on the cost of capital

Efficiency ratios

T O

sponsor firm

I N T R O DU C T I O N

11

DCF has three key components

2.

2. Estimate

Estimate the

the appropriate

appropriate discount

discount rate

rate

n

FCFFt FCFFn +1

V = t

+ n

t =1 (1 + WACC ) (WACC g )(1 + WACC )

E D

WACC = re + rd (1 + )

V V

The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) should be commensurate with the riskiness of

the project

More advanced definitions of WACC (imputation credits, hybrids)

VAL U AT I O N

n

Dt Terminal value

E = t

+ t

t =1 (1 + re ) (1 + re )

T O

re = rf + e MRP

I N T R O DU C T I O N

Always remember to be consistent in your cash flow definition and the discount rate applied

12

The cost of equity is a major component of the WACC

The cost of equity represents the long-term return expected by the market for this project

Extremely difficult to estimate an appropriate beta (e.g. data issues, length of estimation

period, benchmark rate of return)

Sometimes include a country risk premium

Australia

Australia discount

discount rate

rate

Cost of equity = Risk free rate + Beta x Equity risk premium

VAL U AT I O N

Long

Long term

term risk

risk Adjustment

Adjustment for

for Appropriate

Appropriate extra

extra

Long

Long term

term return

return on

on

= free

free rate of

rate of + correlation

correlation to

to x return above

return above

equity investment

equity investment return

return stock

stock market

market returns

returns risk

risk free

free rate

rate

Estimated using

T O

various techniques

I N T R O DU C T I O N

13

Cost of debt calculation

rd = (b + s) x (1 - t)

Debt

Debt

Cost

Cost of

of Benchmark

Benchmark Marginal

Marginal

spread

spread //

debt

debt rate

rate tax

tax rate

rate

premium

premium

Domestic debt

VAL U AT I O N

Benchmark rates include BBSW, 10-year government bonds

Adjusted for tax-deductibility of interest expense

Check this against the approximate borrowing costs associated with a companys corporate

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

14

DCF has three key components

3.

3. Terminal

Terminal value

value

careful the assat of

the cor., to

Terminal value is the portion of a companys total value that can be attributed to cash flows

determine how expected in the period beyond the specific forecast horizon

many years into

perpeturity

Terminal value should be estimated when the company reaches steady state

&terminal value Long-term assumptions have been stabilised

Length of explicit forecast period is company specific

Terminal value is typically based on some measure of the performance of the business in the

terminal year of the projection (which should depict the business operating in a steady-

state/normalised manner)

Growth in perpetuity method

E.g. g = (1 DPR ) E ( ROE )

VAL U AT I O N

Since an exit multiple has an implied growth rate and vice versa, cross check for

reasonableness

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

15

JPMorgans approach to free cash flow and valuation

Free cash flow is the cash that remains after all necessary reinvestments have been made, e.g.

capital expenditure and working capital

Free cash flow is measured prior to any debt service (interest and debt repayment), but after

cash taxes

Free cash flow therefore is the amount of cash that can be distributed to shareholders and debt

holders (also known as the unlevered cash flow)

Cash flows discounted at the weighted-average cost of capital to calculate firm value

VAL U AT I O N

Sometimes we calculate cash flows after interest expense/income (levered cash flow)

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

16

Summary presentation of DCF results

Free cashflow summary11

Free cashflow summary

how sesitive the

value is to the Year end 30 June 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total sales 277.0 290.9 305.4 320.7 336.7 350.2 364.2 375.1 386.3 397.9 409.9

assumption?

% growth -- 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

EBIT 24.8 30.5 42.9 46.2 50.2 52.1 53.4 54.7 56.1 57.5 59.2

% margin 8.9% 10.5% 14.0% 14.4% 14.9% 14.9% 14.7% 14.6% 14.5% 14.4% 14.4%

Taxes 9.2 9.1 12.9 13.8 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.8

% rate 36.9% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

Deprecn &

17.8 16.1 7.5 8.4 8.7 8.5 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.5

Amortisation

Less: Capex (9.8) (9.8) (9.8) (10.5) (10.5) (11.0) (11.0) (11.0) (11.5) (11.5) (10.4)

Less: NWI change 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

Free cashflow2 25.6 28.1 28.2 30.6 33.8 34.4 35.7 36.3 36.5 37.3 39.8

Key valuation outputs

Firm value (A$mm) Equity value (A$mm) Equity value per share (A$)

VAL U AT I O N

9.3% 472.1 492.8 517.1 9.3% 462.7 483.4 507.7 9.3% $4.63 $3.83 $5.08

9.8% 440.0 457.1 477.0 9.8% 430.6 447.7 467.5 9.8% $4.30 $4.48 $4.68

WACC

WACC

WACC

10.3% 412.0 426.3 442.7 10.3% 402.6 416.9 433.3 10.3% $4.03 $4.17 $4.33

T O

10.8% 387.3 399.4 413.1 10.8% 377.9 390.0 403.7 10.8% $3.78 $3.90 $4.04

11.3% 265.5 375.8 387.4 11.3% 356.1 366.4 378.0 11.3% $3.56 $3.66 $3.78

I N T R O DU C T I O N

2 Calculated as per J.P. Morgan base case DCF model; figures may not add due to rounding

17

Overview of the session

Introduction

Trading multiples

Transaction multiples

VAL U AT I O N

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

18

Firm value and equity value are two different concepts . . .

(also referred to as enterprise value or asset value)

The value of the total enterprise: market value of equity + net debt

Equity value = Market value of the shareholders equity

(also referred to as offer value)

The market value of a companys equity (shares outstanding x current stock price)

Equity value = Firm value - net debt2

VAL U AT I O N

Net debt

Enterprise Enterprise

value Value

Equity value

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

1 The value of debt should be a market value. It may be appropriate to assume book value of debt approximates the market value as long as the companys credit profile has

not changed significantly since the existing debt was issued.

2 Net debt equals total debt (short and long-term) + minority interest + preferred equity + capitalized leases - cash and cash equivalents.

19

. . . and are used for different multiples

The defining difference lies in the treatment of debt and its associated cost (interest expense)

A multiple that has debt in the numerator must have a statistic before interest expense in the

denominator

Equity value Firm value

Value for owners of business (after interest expense) Value available to all providers of capital (before

interest expense)

VAL U AT I O N

Multiples of:

Multiples of:

net income

sales

after tax cash flow

EBITDA

T O

book value

EBIT

I N T R O DU C T I O N

20

A broad range of trading multiples are typically used

Multiple Comment

Firm value / sales (LTM, FY1, FY2) Generally not very accurate although essential for high-tech companies

Firm value / EBITDA (LTM, FY1, FY2) Generally most accurate multiple to use (watch out for interest income)

Good ratio in cyclical industries

Good for cross-country comparisons

Independent of leverage

Firm value / EBIT (LTM, FY1, FY2) Most useful when assessing a capital intensive business

Market cap. / Net income

Forward looking P/E actively used by Wall Street analysts; forward

(also known as P/E)

looking avoids problems with different fiscal years

VAL U AT I O N

Market cap. / book value

multiples in particular

Firm value / total assets Useful when assessing utilities and other fixed-asset based companies

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

21

Example trading comparables page

Trading comparables

Market cap Ent. Value

Company (A$mm) (A$mm) 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E 2008E 2009E

Ausenco 1,248 1,211 4.0x 3.3x 21.0x 15.6x 22.2x 16.5x 28.1x 21.5x 3.1% 4.0%

Monadelphous 1,260 1,186 1.2x 1.1x 12.2x 10.8x 14.1x 12.4x 20.4x 18.2x 6.3% 7.2%

Walter Diversified 276 325 1.1x 1.0x 7.6x 6.4x 10.9x 8.9x 15.9x 13.4x 3.4% 3.9%

Sedgman 555 560 2.5x 2.2x 10.7x 9.2x 13.8x 11.9x 18.6x 15.5x 3.5% 4.4%

Industrea 521 514 4.1x 2.9x 19.9x 14.2x 21.3x 15.0x 24.8x 20.1x 1.9% 1.9%

Cardno 454 497 1.3x 1.1x 10.9x 8.9x 12.2x 10.0x 16.5x 13.2x 4.6% 5.9%

Coffey 444 493 1.1x 1.0x 10.0x 9.0x 11.8x 10.4x 16.6x 14.3x 6.6% 7.3%

RCR Tomlinson 283 304 0.6x 0.5x 5.5x 4.8x 7.0x 6.1x 9.5x 8.0x 3.5% 4.1%

VAL U AT I O N

AJ Lucas 208 238 0.8x 0.5x 9.3x 5.6x 13.3x 7.9x 16.6x 11.0x 0.7% 0.0%

Lycopodium 178 167 1.5x 1.4x 11.1x 9.6x 11.7x 10.1x 16.6x 13.8x 6.4% 7.3%

Mean 1.8x 1.4x 11.4x 9.1x 13.6x 10.7x 18.1x 14.8x 4.1% 4.7%

Median 1.2x 1.1x 10.7x 9.0x 12.2x 10.1x 16.6x 13.8x 3.5% 4.4%

T O

Note: Calendarised to 30 June; Market data as at 4-Dec-07

I N T R O DU C T I O N

22

Why trading values can differ from DCF

DCF exclude real Market may view the firms outlook differently (different implied forecast)

option value

Discounts (eg. lack of liquidity, conglomerate)

Option value

Acquisition speculation

Event risk

VAL U AT I O N

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

23

Some important points to remember when calculating

trading multiples

Need to understand in detail the industry segments that competitors operate in

Must identify and explain significant differences in multiples across the peer group

EBIT and other figures shown in annual reports and sources such as equity research reports

are often inconsistent with J.P. Morgan definitions

Deducting material profits on sale of assets

Adding back abnormal losses

Generally focus on forward-looking multiples

VAL U AT I O N

Mean often skewed by outliers due to poor / outdated estimates

As a general rule of thumb, multiples always run lowest to highest from EBITDA, EBIT and P/E

T O

Expected given use of depreciable equipment in typical business (EBITDA to EBIT multiple)

I N T R O DU C T I O N

Expected given most businesses generate a higher rate of capital return on capital employed

than the after-tax cost of debt (EBIT to P/E multiple)

24

Overview of the session

Introduction

Trading multiples

Transaction multiples

VAL U AT I O N

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

25

Comparable deals analysis is usually problematic

Transaction multiples - estimate of value based on what buyers have paid for a similar asset in

the past

Dated information

stock market has changed

business has changed

financing has changed

bidders have changed

Missing data

earnings usually unavailable on subsidiary transactions

VAL U AT I O N

Hard-to-find data

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

26

Why bother with comparable transactions?

our clients typically want to know deal history within their industry

our competition will certainly provide this

premium needed in the past to win bidding (control premium)

valuation techniques used by buyers

list of likely bidders

possible bidding strategies

VAL U AT I O N

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

27

Sources used to locate comparable transactions

Identifies transactions based on hostile vs. friendly, transaction size, announcement date, and several other deal elements

The Comprehensive Summary Report is very helpful in hand-picking transactions since it includes a synopsis of the deal in addition

to general information regarding both parties and the transaction

Ensures you do not exclude any landmark deals or other deals they would specifically like to include

Fairness opinions of financial advisors disclose the comparable transactions used in their valuation of the target

VAL U AT I O N

News runs

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

28

Indicative presentation of transaction comps

Domestic equipment rental transaction summary (A$mm)

Domestic equipment rental transaction summary (A$mm)

EBIT multiple

Target Acquirer Ann. date EV (A$mm) Historical Forecast EV/NTOA multiple

Coates National Hire 10/02/2007 1,645 12.4x 11.2x NA

PCH Group Ltd Cape Australia Pty Ltd 16/10/2007 $268.1 18.2 13.2 2.4x

Concept Hire Ltd Cape Australia Pty Ltd 11/09/2007 128.7 12.6 9.8 2.4

Prime Industrial Rentals Coates 29/08/2007 39.7 5.0 4.5 1.1

United Rentals Inc Cerberus Capital Management 23/07/2007 US$6,600.0 9.6 9.0 1.5

Allplant Coates 30/11/2006 72.4 NA 7.6 1.3

Hirequip NZ Ltd Nikko 28/11/2006 189.1 12.6 10.2 2.1

Hirepool Ltd Next Capital 1/07/2006 172.0 10.4 NA NA

Allied Equipment Coates 1/07/2005 135.7 NA 5.9 1.4

AH Plant Hire National Hire 21/10/2005 106.5 8.4 8.2 1.9

Sherrin Hire Pty Ltd Boom Logistics Ltd 27/06/2005 130.0 7.2 NA 1.3

Allight Holdings Pty Ltd National Hire 1/11/2004 82.5 12.5 7.2 1.6

The Cat Rental Store WA National Hire 1/11/2004 46.9 12.7 6.2 1.0

Australian Oil and Gas Ensign Ltd 12/04/2002 149.9 13.2 12.0 1.1

Median 12.5x 8.6x 1.5x

Mean 11.2x 8.8x 1.6x

Source: Coates Hire Scheme Booklet, Independent Experts Report

Note: NTOA is NTA + net debt surplus assets

VAL U AT I O N

EM EC O

29

Anatomy of a takeover premium

Highest

final

offer

Must win!

Defensive /

Cost of building from scratch vs. purchase

greenfield /

platform / option Potential value of ownership, either due to high return investments or unforeseen

Potential control premium

events

Outlook Buyers perception of the future is different from the markets view

Synergies

revenue enhancements

Cost of capital (sometimes viewed as a synergy)

VAL U AT I O N

Target trades at a discount to DCF value (eg. Diversified holdings; industry out of

Under-valuation favour, poor communications with investors, etc.)

Trading price

Target before

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

30

When can transaction values differ from DCF?

revenue enhancements

cost savings

Cross border

buyer may have a dramatically different view of the future than the market

VAL U AT I O N

defensive acquisition

T O

I N T R O DU C T I O N

31

I N T R O DU C T I O N T O VAL U AT I O N

Welcome to the team!

32

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