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PREDICTIVE CANBACK
ANALYTICS Boston, Massachusetts
INTEGRATORS www.canback.com
+1-617-399-1300
Introduction to Canback
C-GIDD Classic
C-GIDD extensions
Leveraging C-GIDD in consulting work
Appendix: C-GIDD geographic coverage
2
Canback is a global management consulting firm advising mainly consumer-facing clients
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Canback is the leader in management consulting based on predictive analytics
- Datasets at the
center of problem- Predictive
solving A new approach
analytics
- Repeatability and with higher
management
scalability for performance
consulting
efficiency
Performance
- Conceptually based
problem-solving Traditional Few, if any, break-
- Experience preferred management throughs since the
over hard analysis consulting early 1990s
4
Canback is often cited in the press, research reports, annual reports, and investor presentations
The Shifting Urban Economic Landscape: The Future of Retailer Brands (2010)
What Does it Mean for Cities? (2013)
5
Canback has worked on a large variety of projects, usually with a commercial focus
CANBACK PRACTICES
Addressing where to play and how to play across geographies and parts of
Commercial Strategy 52%
the value chain
6
Canback has worked on the ground in 84 countries
GLOBAL FOOTPRINT
Europe 8%
Global projects 21%
United States 7%
Africa 25%
Offices
Country projects
CANBACK OFFICES
OFFICE CAPABILITIES
Mexico City
Johannes-
Shanghai
Chicago
London
Jakarta
Boston
Beijing
burg
Management
consulting
Predictive
analytics
C-GIDD
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Canback practical and fact-based approach is appreciated by clients
In the words of Mauricio Leyva, CEO AB InBev Middle Americas, 45,000 employees
Top-line
expertise
9
Agenda
Introduction to Canback
C-GIDD Classic
C-GIDD extensions
Leveraging C-GIDD in consulting work
Appendix: C-GIDD geographic coverage
10
The Canback Global Income Distribution Database is the only commercial database of its kind in
the world
Televison sets
Oil consumption
C-GIDD
Cellphone subscribers
income C-GIDD
economic, Internet users
distribution
data demographic, C-GIDD Personal computers
social and benchmark McDonald's restaurants
Available as a psychographic products and Milk consumption
commercial data services data Cash machines (ATMs)
service at Insurance premiums
cgidd.com Internal to Internal to
Canback Bank deposits
Canback
Electricity consumption
Airline passengers
0.00 0.50 1.00
R2
11
C-GIDD was launched in 2008. Here are some of our repeat customers
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C-GIDD draws on more than 1,600 data sources which are harmonized and econometrically
analyzed to extract the most information as possible at the city or subdivision level
FROM DISCRETE AND INCOMPLETE SOURCES THROUGH PROPRIETARY TO UP-TO-DATE, HARMONIZED AND
HARMONIZATION AND PROJECTION COMPREHENSIVE DATABASE WITH A
TECHNIQUES SIMPLE AND INTUITIVE INTERFACE
Proprietary purchasing
UN and US Census Bureau power and cost-of-living
adjustments
Population projections
PPP data
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C-GIDD contains detailed income distribution data at varying geographic levels, including 1,000
cities. It allows the user to analyze populations and households in specific cities and at certain
income levels today, in the past, and in the future
Total GDP in PPP$ trillions Millions of households with income higher than PPP$ 20,000
2005 constant values 2005 constant values
Millions of middle-class households by location in 2014 Income per household in Egypt in 2014
Socioeconomic levels A, B, C+ and C Egyptian Pounds, 2014 current values
We use an international definition developed by AMAI to define socioeconomic levels (SEL) and apply it consistently to all countries
Socioeconomic
(regardless of a countrys own SEL definition). This allows for comparability between countries, subdivisions and cities. The
Levels (SEL)
international definition is the most well defined scheme and is independent of climate and culture.
100 +64.6%
90 55.0
80
70
33.4
60 Marginalized
50
Lower middle
40 Lower
Upper middle
30
Middle
20 Upper
2014 2024
10 forecast
Healthcare consuming class is statistically
0 demonstrated to comprise middle class and
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 above
COUNTRY DECKS
In progress
Egypt
Indonesia
Kenya
Saudi Arabia
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Agenda
Introduction to Canback
C-GIDD Classic
C-GIDD extensions
Leveraging C-GIDD in consulting work
Appendix: C-GIDD geographic coverage
18
The first type of C-GIDD extension are customized web portals where we adapt C-GIDD to the needs
to large corporate customers. This may mean adding category data, age brackets, and adding
organizational cuts to the dataset
We work closely with enterprises, including some of the worlds largest corporations, to create customized web portals with seamless access
to C-GIDD/customer data. We provide a dedicated support team to meet their needs. Such customers include:
We provide subscription-based C-GIDD access and full support to In addition to providing data to large corporations on a subscription
companies of various sizes to meet their needs on an ongoing basis, we also work with smaller entities who have occasional data
basis. Corporate account customers include: needs.
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The second type of extension is to build more detailed datasets. Our sub-Saharan Africa
database (sold separately) illustrates this
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (SSA) DATABASE
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The third type of extension is to use C-GIDD together with customer category data from various
syndicated sources to model the size of markets today and into the future
In 2005, we were commissioned by a client to analyze the manual and Using the oral care database, we were able to estimate demand,
rechargeable toothbrush market. Forecasting models, a specialized C-GIDD measured by disposable income per capita, price, and population.
dataset, and analysis of market dynamics formed the basis for our This in turn was used to explain growth with a high degree of
recommendations accuracy
R2=0.97
Market research data from
Nielsen and Euromonitor
Predicted
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Economic, demographic, and
C-GIDD social indicators provided by
the UN, IMF, and World Bank
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Agenda
Introduction to Canback
C-GIDD Classic
C-GIDD extensions
Leveraging C-GIDD in consulting work
Appendix: C-GIDD geographic coverage
22
Canback leverages a variety of statistical methods to model demand growth, calculate
elasticities and analyze commercial opportunities
Using C-GIDD in combination with other data (from client, local statistics agency, etc.) enables powerful analysis. Our analysts regularly create
advanced statistical models in our consulting services, and C-GIDD provides the foundation for many of these predictive analytics
The pooled cross-sectional time series is the Classic regression study with standard Collect and compare results from different
hybrid of two traditional methods of correction for autoregressive or lagged time analyses. Meta analysis constitutes an
comparative research; time series analysis variable errors. The Prais-Winsten approach is important scientific approach to elasticity
and cross-sectional analysis. A pooled cross- most often the choice for explanatory time calculation. By analyzing results, and not only
sectional time series is a dataset which has series analysis data, a broader understanding of market
observations of multiple cross-sectional units movements is achieved
such as countries (X) over time (T)
A combination of regression and time series. Predicts the future based on the past behavior A choice model to determine which attributes
Armax works best for predictions, but the of the dependent variable. Time series do not are most influential on respondent choices.
inclusion of time series methods distorts the work on explanatory models since they have Conjoint analysis models trade-offs that are
elasticities. No autoregressive problems no independent variables only loosely linked to elasticities
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In one project, Canback leveraged C-GIDD and our management consulting practice for a
market sizing and product launch effort in healthcare
PRIMARY DRIVERS
22,508
DISPOSABLE 17,700
13,364 12,188 Disposable income per
INCOME
Household-equivalent in
2005 PPP$
32%
23% 23%
17%
MATERNAL % of women with tertiary
EDUCATION education
PARASITIC WORM
SECONDARY DRIVERS
PREVALENCE 96% 98%
87% 79%
ACCESS TO HEALTH
% of children getting
CARE
DPT3 vaccination
55% 65%
QUALITY 36% 41% % of population living
OF HOUSING with durable floors, walls,
and roofs; water, and
electricity
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Canback identified three clear stages of parasite prevention and visited four countries for
consumer insights, health perspectives, and to understand distribution capabilities.
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Finally, Canback delivered specific recommendations for a distribution and marketing strategy as
well as provided to-be market projections for each country
RECOMMENDATIONS
Possible
Product Distribution Marketing Price
Outcome
A: Extension of pre- Skewed to modern Social network- 20-30% premium above $100M in retail
existing product trade driven: Word-of- current product price revenue 4-6 years
mouth after launch
Initial focus on
B: Milk-centric product
greater Shanghai Address believability Contribution to brand
area where modern issues image + distribution
Small pack sizes for
trade is well- footprint
affordability and large
developed
pack sizes to give lower
unit cost with sustained Shelved with regular
use food
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Agenda
Introduction to Canback
C-GIDD Classic
C-GIDD extensions
Leveraging C-GIDD in consulting work
Appendix: C-GIDD geographic coverage
27
Appendix A
C-GIDD countries
Updated September 2017
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C-GIDD subdivisions, continued
30
C-GIDD subdivisions, continued
31
C-GIDD subdivisions, continued
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Appendix C
C-GIDD cities
Updated September 2017
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C-GIDD cities, continued
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C-GIDD cities, continued
35
C-GIDD cities, continued
36
C-GIDD cities, continued
37
C-GIDD cities, continued
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C-GIDD cities, continued
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C-GIDD contact information
C-GIDD
Boston Canback
210 Broadway, Suite 303
Cambridge MA 02139
+1-617-399-1300 ext. 210
Bobo Shen
bshen@canback.com
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Canback contact information
AMERICAS
Boston Canback Headquarters Alyssa Vergun Mexico City Canback Mexico Francisco Maciel Morfin
210 Broadway, Suite 303 avergun@canback.com Bosque de Ciruelos 194, PH3 fmaciel@canback.com
Cambridge MA 02139 Bosques de las Lomas
+1-617-399-1300 11700 Ciudad de Mxico, D.F.
+52-55-4164-8500
ASIA
Beijing Canback China Alex van Kemenade Jakarta Canback SE Asia Teddy Purnomo
Unit 1711, 17/F, Block 1 alexandervankemenade@eiu.com Jl. Tiang Bendera 5 no. 2A tpurnomo@canback.com
Taikang Financial Tower DKI Jakarta 11230
38 East 3rd Ring Rd. North +62-812-8743 7578
Chaoyang District 100026
+86-10-8571-2188
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