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Sinan Ülgen is the chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM (Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies). The
views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the German Marshall Fund of the
United States (GMF).
Analysis
enriched uranium and prevent countries like Iran from of carrying out their own enrichment has so far been champi-
becoming nuclear weapon states as a result of uranium oned essentially by the nuclear states. For Turkey, defending
enrichment activities. this approach, which is known to be supported by the IAEA,
would represent an important step. Until now, Ankara’s posi-
A number of countries in the vanguard of nuclear technol- tion was quite the opposite. Turkish policymakers have been
ogy, including the United States, are increasingly focusing careful not to undermine the country’s uranium enrichment
on the fundamental pillar of the NPT that allows uranium rights stemming from the NPT. The stated reason relates
enrichment for civilian purposes. The objective is to induce to the expected growth of civilian nuclear power in Turkey.
non-nuclear states to shy away from the “maligned” practice Nuclear energy is to have a significant role in the future of
of enrichment in return for a guarantee of nuclear fuel supply Turkey’s energy policies.
security to be underwritten by a multilateral fuel bank under
the management of an international body like the IAEA. Turkey’s nuclear fuel requirements will also grow commen-
surate with an increasing reliance on nuclear energy. Accord-
The current deal presented to Iran is in essence very similar ing to the Ministry of Energy, in the long term, one fourth of
to this approach. The international community is trying to total electricity production is to be generated from nuclear
convince the Iranian regime to end or at least to scale down energy. Installed capacity in Turkey is to reach 170,000 mega-
its own enrichment activities in return for a guaranteed watts in 2050. That will mean that at least nine other nuclear
supply of enriched uranium from external sources. The deal power facilities, akin to the 4,000 megawatt nuclear plant
involves the exchange of a large part of Iran’s low enriched currently being negotiated with Russia, are to be built in the
uranium for nuclear fuel rods to be supplied by France following four decades. The nuclear fuel that will be required
following the further enrichment of this material by Russia. by these plants will also have to be secured under the best
political and commercial terms.
The political problem that this approach raises is the percep-
tion that this solution has been devised for Iran and for Iran However, these concerns regarding the security of nuclear
only. Tehran refuses to accept this deal believing that it im- fuel supplies can best be overcome with an international
poses limitations only on Iran and arguing that it violates its agreement on nuclear fuel trade guaranteeing the supply of
sovereign rights under the NPT. The Iranian leadership will this sensitive material. The adoption of a strategy of actively
nonetheless need to decide on a course of action very soon supporting the enactment of such an agreement, in contrast
taking into consideration the increasingly volatile internal to Ankara’s traditional policy of focusing on safeguarding
political situation, the hardening stance of the international individual countries’ enrichment rights, would enable Turkey
community and the risks of stronger sanctions or even a to become a key player in the sphere of nuclear non-
military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. proliferation and nuclear energy.
The political opportunity for Turkey As a NATO member and a member of the Nuclear Suppliers
Group, Turkey is well positioned to shape these new rules. On
This leaves a significant political opportunity for Turkish the other hand, as a result of its growing sphere of influence
policy makers. Turkey can, on the one hand, continue its and its burgeoning “soft power,” Turkey is also well placed to
current policy of trying, somewhat ineffectually and under represent the interest of many of the countries in its region
a foreign policy cacophony raising concerns about its alle- intent on switching to nuclear power. It is on this basis that
giance to the Western alliance, to mediate between Iran and Turkey has played a substantial role in helping the United
the rest of the world. However, the eventual political gains to States with regional outreach activities for its Proliferation
be derived from this approach are highly uncertain. The real Security Initiative, an initiative to stop the trafficking of
political opportunity lies in adopting a different approach to weapons of mass destruction. Thus, there is an unalloyed
the issue of uranium enrichment. opportunity for Turkey to use its unique position to help bridge
the confidence gap between East and West on the modalities
Indeed the alternative for emerging nuclear states of purchas- of the transition to nuclear power. Achieving consensus on
ing their nuclear fuel from an international fuel bank instead the conclusion of such an international agreement would also
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Analysis