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# 5-1

Chapter 5

Probability

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5-2 Outline

l 5-1 Introduction
l 5-2 Sample Spaces and Probability
l 5-3 The Addition Rules for
Probability
l 5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
Conditional Probability

5-3 Objectives

## l Determine Sample Spaces and find

the probability of an event using
classical probability.
l Find the probability of an event
using empirical probability.
l Find the probability of compound
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5-4 Objectives

## l Find the probability of compound

events using the multiplication
rules.
l Find the conditional probability of
an event.

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5-5 5-2 Sample Spaces and Probability

## l A probability experiment is a process

that leads to well-defined results called
outcomes.
l An outcome is the result of a single trial
of a probability experiment.
l NOTE: A tree diagram can be used as a
systematic way to find all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
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5-2 Tree Diagram for Tossing Two Coins
5-6
H

H
T

Second Toss

T H

First Toss T
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5-7 5-2 Sample Spaces - Examples

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5-2 Formula for Classical
5-8 Probability

## l Classical probability assumes that

all outcomes in the sample space
are equally likely to occur.
l That is, equally likely events are
events that have the same
probability of occurring.

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5-2 Formula for Classical
5-9 Probability

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5-10 5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

## l For a card drawn from an ordinary deck,

find the probability of getting (a) a queen
(b) a 6 of clubs (c) a 3 or a diamond.
l Solution: (a) Since there are 4 queens
and 52 cards, P(queen) = 4/52 = 1/13.
1/13
l (b) Since there is only one 6 of clubs,
then P(6 of clubs) = 1/52.
1/52

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5-11 5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

## l (c) There are four 3s and 13

diamonds, but the 3 of diamonds is
counted twice in the listing. Hence
there are only 16 possibilities of
drawing a 3 or a diamond, thus
P(3 or diamond) = 16/52 = 4/13.
4/13

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5-12 5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

## l When a single die is rolled, find the

probability of getting a 9.
l Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9.
Hence, P(9) = 0/6 = 0. 0
l NOTE: The sum of the probabilities of all
outcomes in a sample space is one.

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5-13 5-2 Complement of an Event

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5-2 Complement of an Event -
5-14 Example

## l Find the complement of each event.

l Rolling a die and getting a 4.
l Solution: Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6.
l Selecting a letter of the alphabet and
getting a vowel.
l Solution: Getting a consonant
(assume y is a consonant).
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5-2 Complement of an Event -
5-15 Example

## l Selecting a day of the week and

getting a weekday.
l Solution: Getting Saturday or Sunday.
l Selecting a one-child family and
getting a boy.
l Solution: Getting a girl.

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5-16 5-2 Rule for Complementary Event

P ( E ) 1 P ( E )
or
P ( E ) = 1 P ( E )
or
P ( E ) + P ( E ) = 1.

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5-17 5-2 Empirical Probability
l The difference between classical and
empirical probability is that classical
probability assumes that certain
outcomes are equally likely while
empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the
probability of an outcome.

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5-2 Formula for Empirical
5-18 Probability

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5-2 Empirical Probability -
5-19 Example

## l In a sample of 50 people, 21 had

type O blood, 22 had type A blood,
blood. Set up a frequency
distribution.

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5-2 Empirical Probability -
5-20 Example

Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
50 = n

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5-2 Empirical Probability -
5-21 Example

## l Find the following probabilities for

the previous example.
l A person has type O blood.
l Solution: P(O) = f /n = 21/50.
l A person has type A or type B blood.
l Solution: P(A or B) = 22/50+ 5/50
= 27/50.
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5-22 Probability

## l Two events are mutually exclusive

if they cannot occur at the same
time (i.e. they have no outcomes in
common).

5-23 Probability

A B

## When two events A and B are

mutually exclusive, the probability
that A or B will occur is
P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )

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5-25 5-3 Addition Rule 1- Example
l At a political rally, there are 20
Republicans (R), 13 Democrats (D),
and 6 Independents (I). If a person is
selected, find the probability that he or
she is either a Democrat or an
Independent.
l Solution: P(D or I) = P(D) + P(I)
= 13/39 + 6/39 = 19/39.
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5-26 5-3 Addition Rule 1- Example
l A day of the week is selected at
random. Find the probability that it
is a weekend.
l Solution: P(Saturday or Sunday)
= P(Saturday) + P(Sunday)
= 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7.

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When two events A and B
are not mutually exclusive, the
probabilityy that A or B will
occur is

P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B) P ( A and B)

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A and B (common portion)

A B

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5-29 5-3 Addition Rule 2- Example
l In a hospital unit there are eight
nurses and five physicians. Seven
nurses and three physicians are
females. If a staff person is selected,
find the probability that the subject is
a nurse or a male.
l The next slide has the data.

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5-30 5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example

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5-31 5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example

## l Solution: P(nurse or male)

= P(nurse) + P(male) P(male
nurse) = 8/13 + 3/13 1/13 = 10/13.

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5-32 5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example
l On New Years Eve, the probability that a
person driving while intoxicated is 0.32,
the probability of a person having a
driving accident is 0.09, and the
probability of a person having a driving
accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is
the probability of a person driving while
intoxicated or having a driving accident?

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5-33 5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example
l Solution:
P(intoxicated or accident)
= P(intoxicated) + P(accident)
P(intoxicated and accident)
= 0.32 + 0.09 0.06 = 0.35.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-34 Conditional Probability

## l Two events A and B are independent

if the fact that A occurs does not
affect the probability of B occurring.
l Example: Rolling a die and getting a
6, and then rolling another die and
getting a 3 are independent events.

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5-35 5-4 Multiplication Rule 1

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5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 -
5-36 Example

## l A card is drawn from a deck and

replaced; then a second card is drawn.
Find the probability of getting a queen
and then an ace.
l Solution: Because these two events
are independent (why?), P(queen and
ace) = (4/52)(4/52) = 16/2704 = 1/169.

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5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 -
5-37 Example

## l A Harris pole found that 46% of

Americans say they suffer great stress
at least once a week. If three people are
selected at random, find the probability
that all three will say that they suffer
stress at least once a week.
l Solution: Let S denote stress. Then
P(S and S and S) = (0.46)3 = 0.097.
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5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 -
5-38 Example

## l The probability that a specific medical

test will show positive is 0.32. If four
people are tested, find the probability
that all four will show positive.
l Solution: Let T denote a positive test
result. Then P(T and T and T and T) =
(0.32)4 = 0.010.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-39 Conditional Probability

## l When the outcome or occurrence of the

first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in such
a way that the probability is changed,
the events are said to be dependent.
l Example: Having high grades and
getting a scholarship are dependent
events.
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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-40 Conditional Probability

## l The conditional probability of an event B

in relationship to an event A is the
probability that an event B occurs after
l The notation for the conditional probability
of B given A is P(B|A).
l NOTE: This does not mean B A.

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5-41 5-4 Multiplication Rule 2

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-42 Conditional Probability - Example

## l In a shipment of 25 microwave ovens,

two are defective. If two ovens are
randomly selected and tested, find the
probability that both are defective if the
first one is not replaced after it has
been tested.
l Solution: See next slide.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-43 Conditional Probability - Example

## l Solution: Since the events are

dependent, P(D1 and D2)
= P(D1)P(D2| D1) = (2/25)(1/24)
= 2/600 = 1/300.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-44 Conditional Probability - Example

## l The WW Insurance Company found that

53% of the residents of a city had
homeowners insurance with its company.
Of these clients, 27% also had automobile
insurance with the company. If a resident
is selected at random, find the probability
that the resident has both homeowners
and automobile insurance.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-45 Conditional Probability - Example

## l Solution: Since the events are

dependent, P(H and A)
= P(H)P(A|H) = (0.53)(0.27)
= 0.1431.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-46 Conditional Probability - Example

## l Box 1 contains two red balls and one

blue ball. Box 2 contains three blue
balls and one red ball. A coin is tossed.
If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected and
a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2
is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the
probability of selecting a red ball.

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5-4 Tree Diagram for Example
5-47 P(R|B1) 2/3 Red (1/2)(2/3)

P(B1) 1/2
Box 1 Blue (1/2)(1/3)
P(B|B1) 1/3

P(R|B2) 1/4
Box 2 Red (1/2)(1/4)
P(B2) 1/2

## P(B|B2) 3/4 Blue (1/2)(3/4)

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-48 Conditional Probability - Example

## l Solution: P(red) = (1/2)(2/3) +

(1/2)(1/4) = 2/6 + 1/8 = 8/24 + 3/24
= 11/24.

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5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-49 Formula

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5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-50 Example

## l The probability that Sam parks in a no-

parking zone and gets a parking ticket is
0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot
find a legal parking space and has to park
in the no-parking zone is 0.2. On Tuesday,
Sam arrives at school and has to park in a
no-parking zone. Find the probability that
he will get a ticket.

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5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-51 Example

## l Solution: Let N = parking in a no-

parking zone and T = getting a
ticket.
l Then P(T |N) = [P(N and T) ]/P(N) =
0.06/0.2 = 0.30.

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5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-52 Example

## l A recent survey asked 100 people

if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted
to participate in combat. The
results are shown in the table on
the next slide.

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5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-53 Example

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5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-54 Example

## l Find the probability that the respondent

answered yes given that the respondent
was a female.
l Solution: Let M = respondent was a male;
F = respondent was a female;

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5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-55 Example

## l P(Y|F) = [P( F and Y) ]/P(F) =

[8/100]/[50/100] = 4/25.
l Find the probability that the respondent
was a male, given that the respondent