Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 55

5-1

Chapter 5

Probability

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-2 Outline

l 5-1 Introduction
l 5-2 Sample Spaces and Probability
l 5-3 The Addition Rules for
Probability
l 5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
Conditional Probability

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-3 Objectives

l Determine Sample Spaces and find


the probability of an event using
classical probability.
l Find the probability of an event
using empirical probability.
l Find the probability of compound
events using the addition rules.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-4 Objectives

l Find the probability of compound


events using the multiplication
rules.
l Find the conditional probability of
an event.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-5 5-2 Sample Spaces and Probability

l A probability experiment is a process


that leads to well-defined results called
outcomes.
l An outcome is the result of a single trial
of a probability experiment.
l NOTE: A tree diagram can be used as a
systematic way to find all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-2 Tree Diagram for Tossing Two Coins
5-6
H

H
T

Second Toss

T H

First Toss T
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-7 5-2 Sample Spaces - Examples

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-2 Formula for Classical
5-8 Probability

l Classical probability assumes that


all outcomes in the sample space
are equally likely to occur.
l That is, equally likely events are
events that have the same
probability of occurring.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-2 Formula for Classical
5-9 Probability

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-10 5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

l For a card drawn from an ordinary deck,


find the probability of getting (a) a queen
(b) a 6 of clubs (c) a 3 or a diamond.
l Solution: (a) Since there are 4 queens
and 52 cards, P(queen) = 4/52 = 1/13.
1/13
l (b) Since there is only one 6 of clubs,
then P(6 of clubs) = 1/52.
1/52

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-11 5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

l (c) There are four 3s and 13


diamonds, but the 3 of diamonds is
counted twice in the listing. Hence
there are only 16 possibilities of
drawing a 3 or a diamond, thus
P(3 or diamond) = 16/52 = 4/13.
4/13

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-12 5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

l When a single die is rolled, find the


probability of getting a 9.
l Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9.
Hence, P(9) = 0/6 = 0. 0
l NOTE: The sum of the probabilities of all
outcomes in a sample space is one.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-13 5-2 Complement of an Event

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-2 Complement of an Event -
5-14 Example

l Find the complement of each event.


l Rolling a die and getting a 4.
l Solution: Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6.
l Selecting a letter of the alphabet and
getting a vowel.
l Solution: Getting a consonant
(assume y is a consonant).
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-2 Complement of an Event -
5-15 Example

l Selecting a day of the week and


getting a weekday.
l Solution: Getting Saturday or Sunday.
l Selecting a one-child family and
getting a boy.
l Solution: Getting a girl.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-16 5-2 Rule for Complementary Event

P ( E ) 1 P ( E )
or
P ( E ) = 1 P ( E )
or
P ( E ) + P ( E ) = 1.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-17 5-2 Empirical Probability
l The difference between classical and
empirical probability is that classical
probability assumes that certain
outcomes are equally likely while
empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the
probability of an outcome.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-2 Formula for Empirical
5-18 Probability

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-2 Empirical Probability -
5-19 Example

l In a sample of 50 people, 21 had


type O blood, 22 had type A blood,
5 had type B blood, and 2 had AB
blood. Set up a frequency
distribution.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-2 Empirical Probability -
5-20 Example

Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
50 = n

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-2 Empirical Probability -
5-21 Example

l Find the following probabilities for


the previous example.
l A person has type O blood.
l Solution: P(O) = f /n = 21/50.
l A person has type A or type B blood.
l Solution: P(A or B) = 22/50+ 5/50
= 27/50.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-3 The Addition Rules for
5-22 Probability

l Two events are mutually exclusive


if they cannot occur at the same
time (i.e. they have no outcomes in
common).

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-3 The Addition Rules for
5-23 Probability

A and B are mutually exclusive

A B

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-24 5-3 Addition Rule 1

When two events A and B are


mutually exclusive, the probability
that A or B will occur is
P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B )

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-25 5-3 Addition Rule 1- Example
l At a political rally, there are 20
Republicans (R), 13 Democrats (D),
and 6 Independents (I). If a person is
selected, find the probability that he or
she is either a Democrat or an
Independent.
l Solution: P(D or I) = P(D) + P(I)
= 13/39 + 6/39 = 19/39.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-26 5-3 Addition Rule 1- Example
l A day of the week is selected at
random. Find the probability that it
is a weekend.
l Solution: P(Saturday or Sunday)
= P(Saturday) + P(Sunday)
= 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-27 5-3 Addition Rule 2
When two events A and B
are not mutually exclusive, the
probabilityy that A or B will
occur is

P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B) P ( A and B)

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-28 5-3 Addition Rule 2
A and B (common portion)

A B

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-29 5-3 Addition Rule 2- Example
l In a hospital unit there are eight
nurses and five physicians. Seven
nurses and three physicians are
females. If a staff person is selected,
find the probability that the subject is
a nurse or a male.
l The next slide has the data.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-30 5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-31 5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example

l Solution: P(nurse or male)


= P(nurse) + P(male) P(male
nurse) = 8/13 + 3/13 1/13 = 10/13.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-32 5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example
l On New Years Eve, the probability that a
person driving while intoxicated is 0.32,
the probability of a person having a
driving accident is 0.09, and the
probability of a person having a driving
accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is
the probability of a person driving while
intoxicated or having a driving accident?

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-33 5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example
l Solution:
P(intoxicated or accident)
= P(intoxicated) + P(accident)
P(intoxicated and accident)
= 0.32 + 0.09 0.06 = 0.35.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-34 Conditional Probability

l Two events A and B are independent


if the fact that A occurs does not
affect the probability of B occurring.
l Example: Rolling a die and getting a
6, and then rolling another die and
getting a 3 are independent events.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-35 5-4 Multiplication Rule 1

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 -
5-36 Example

l A card is drawn from a deck and


replaced; then a second card is drawn.
Find the probability of getting a queen
and then an ace.
l Solution: Because these two events
are independent (why?), P(queen and
ace) = (4/52)(4/52) = 16/2704 = 1/169.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 -
5-37 Example

l A Harris pole found that 46% of


Americans say they suffer great stress
at least once a week. If three people are
selected at random, find the probability
that all three will say that they suffer
stress at least once a week.
l Solution: Let S denote stress. Then
P(S and S and S) = (0.46)3 = 0.097.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 -
5-38 Example

l The probability that a specific medical


test will show positive is 0.32. If four
people are tested, find the probability
that all four will show positive.
l Solution: Let T denote a positive test
result. Then P(T and T and T and T) =
(0.32)4 = 0.010.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-39 Conditional Probability

l When the outcome or occurrence of the


first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in such
a way that the probability is changed,
the events are said to be dependent.
l Example: Having high grades and
getting a scholarship are dependent
events.
The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-40 Conditional Probability

l The conditional probability of an event B


in relationship to an event A is the
probability that an event B occurs after
event A has already occurred.
l The notation for the conditional probability
of B given A is P(B|A).
l NOTE: This does not mean B A.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-41 5-4 Multiplication Rule 2

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-42 Conditional Probability - Example

l In a shipment of 25 microwave ovens,


two are defective. If two ovens are
randomly selected and tested, find the
probability that both are defective if the
first one is not replaced after it has
been tested.
l Solution: See next slide.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-43 Conditional Probability - Example

l Solution: Since the events are


dependent, P(D1 and D2)
= P(D1)P(D2| D1) = (2/25)(1/24)
= 2/600 = 1/300.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-44 Conditional Probability - Example

l The WW Insurance Company found that


53% of the residents of a city had
homeowners insurance with its company.
Of these clients, 27% also had automobile
insurance with the company. If a resident
is selected at random, find the probability
that the resident has both homeowners
and automobile insurance.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-45 Conditional Probability - Example

l Solution: Since the events are


dependent, P(H and A)
= P(H)P(A|H) = (0.53)(0.27)
= 0.1431.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-46 Conditional Probability - Example

l Box 1 contains two red balls and one


blue ball. Box 2 contains three blue
balls and one red ball. A coin is tossed.
If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected and
a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2
is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the
probability of selecting a red ball.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Tree Diagram for Example
5-47 P(R|B1) 2/3 Red (1/2)(2/3)

P(B1) 1/2
Box 1 Blue (1/2)(1/3)
P(B|B1) 1/3

P(R|B2) 1/4
Box 2 Red (1/2)(1/4)
P(B2) 1/2

P(B|B2) 3/4 Blue (1/2)(3/4)


The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000
5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
5-48 Conditional Probability - Example

l Solution: P(red) = (1/2)(2/3) +


(1/2)(1/4) = 2/6 + 1/8 = 8/24 + 3/24
= 11/24.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-49 Formula

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-50 Example

l The probability that Sam parks in a no-


parking zone and gets a parking ticket is
0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot
find a legal parking space and has to park
in the no-parking zone is 0.2. On Tuesday,
Sam arrives at school and has to park in a
no-parking zone. Find the probability that
he will get a ticket.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-51 Example

l Solution: Let N = parking in a no-


parking zone and T = getting a
ticket.
l Then P(T |N) = [P(N and T) ]/P(N) =
0.06/0.2 = 0.30.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-52 Example

l A recent survey asked 100 people


if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted
to participate in combat. The
results are shown in the table on
the next slide.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-53 Example

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-54 Example

l Find the probability that the respondent


answered yes given that the respondent
was a female.
l Solution: Let M = respondent was a male;
F = respondent was a female;
Y = respondent answered yes;
N = respondent answered no.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000


5-4 Conditional Probability -
5-55 Example

l P(Y|F) = [P( F and Y) ]/P(F) =


[8/100]/[50/100] = 4/25.
l Find the probability that the respondent
was a male, given that the respondent
answered no.
l Solution: P(M|N) = [P(N and M)]/P(N) =
[18/100]/[60/100] = 3/10.

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000