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1.Production
Manufacturing:Chinesegovernmentlaunchedanairplanemanufacturing )ROORZHUV
businessnamedCOMAC.Within10years,we'llseeChinamadebigplanesflying
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alloverChina'ssky.Theaerospaceindustrytogetherwithotherheavyindustries
couldliftChinauptheinternationalmanufacturingvaluechain.Theindustrial 9LHZV

roboticsindustryalsostartedtotakeoffinrecentyearswithChinabecomingthe 9LHZ0RUH
largestbuyerofindustrialroboticsin2014.
Services:Chinahasaflourishinginternetindustry.Educatingmorepeopleon 5HODWHG4XHVWLRQV
howinternetmodelworkscreatesmoreentrepreneursandinnovations.Chinese
governmentlaunchedtheInternet+initiativetoencouragethemasspublicto :KDWFDQ$PHULFDQ\RXWKGRWRUHYLYHWKHHFRQRP\"
buildtheirownstartups.Chinaisalsoagloballeaderinquantum
telecommunications.In2016,Chinaplanstolaunchthefirstquantum (FRQRP\RI&KLQD:KDWDUHWKHUHDVRQVRIWKDW
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telecommunicationssatelliteintheworld.Estimatedlyby2030,afullfledgedQT
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marketwillbeformedwhichmightrevolutionizethewaypeoplecommunicate
witheachother. &KLQD&XUUHQF\'HYDOXDWLRQ  :KDWZLOO
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2.Consumption
OneproblemwithIndia'ssoftwareindustryisitistotallyoutsourcingbasedand &KLQD&XUUHQF\'HYDOXDWLRQ  'RHV
ithasnodomesticmarket.Tosomeextent,thesamestoryistruewithChinese %HLMLQJ
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manufacturing.iPhonesarestillconsideredluxuriesinChinawheremostpeople
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buycellphonesat$100$300.Toclimbuptheinternationalvaluechain,China
needsalargerdomesticmarketforconsumergoodswithhigheraddedvalues. (FRQRP\RI,QGLD,QGLDLVVDLGWRKDYHKLJKHUJURZWK
Chineseconsumptiongrowsatanannualrateof15%.Thisisastaggeringspeed, UDWHLQUHFHQWWLPHVFRPSDUHGWR&KLQD+RZGRHVLW
butIguessiftheChineserealestatebubbleiskilledthegrowthratecouldbeeven DIIHFWWRDFRPPRQPDQLQ,QGLD"
higher.
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3.Investment
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Economyisallabouttheallocationofresources.Chinesegovernmentgaugetheir
officialsbasedontheGDPgrowth.Sinceinfrastructurebuildingandrealestate &KLQD:KDWDUHVRPHPLQGEORZLQJIDFWVDERXW
areeasywaystoboostGDPandmakemoney,theyhavebecometwomajor &KLQD"
venuesofgovernmentdirectedfunding.Rethinkingtheofficialevaluationsystem
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couldhelpbetterallocateeconomicresources.
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WhileChina'seconomicgrowthhasslowedconsiderablyfromthedoubledigitratesthat
characterizedthebeginningofthe21stcentury,itisbynomeanssluggish.Itisstillthe 0RUH5HODWHG4XHVWLRQV
fastestgrowinglargeeconomyintheworld,aheadofanyoftheBRICcountriesataround
7percentannually. 7RS$QVZHUVLQ\RXU)HHG 9LHZ0RUH

Whatismoreimportantthanthenumberassignedtoitsgrowthisthecharacterofthat
growthandhowitischanging,frominvestmentledgrowthtoconsumptionledgrowth. &DQ\RXJLYHPHDVKRUWLQVSLUDWLRQDO
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Beforenow,China'sgrowthwasspearheadedbymassiveinvestmentsinconstructionand
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infrastructure,whichiswhyitnowhastheworld'ssecondlargesthighwaynetworkinthe
world(over4millionkilometers,behindonlytheU.S.,whichhasover6millionkilometers)
andahighspeedrailnetworkthatliterallydwarfsthatoftherestoftheworldcombined
(lookhereListofhighspeedrailwaylines ).

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Duringthisperiodoftime,factories,powerplants,andhousingdevelopmentsroseupata
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scaleandpacetheworldhadneverseenbeforeandChina'sappetitefornatural
resourcesgrewaccordingly.Muchofthereasonoilpricesrosesomuchduringcertain
periodsinthepastdecadewasbecauseofthisinsatiableappetiteitneededtofuelnew
jetliners,cargoships,andautomobilesinthemillions.
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Butacountryof1.4billionpeopleisravenouslyhungryfornotjustfood. OHDUQHUFRXQVHOORUSROLWLFDODQDO\VHUDJQRVWLF

Thateconomicgrowthsawhundredsofmillionsliftedoutofpoverty.GDPpercapitarose
tremendouslyandanewmiddleclass,thelargestintheworld,appearedalongwithit.
Withnewdisposableincome,thesemiddleclassfamiliesbegantopurchaseiPhones,cars,
Tvs,camerastheybegantogoonvacationtoParis,SoutheastAsia,andAmericain
short(andveryquickly),theconsumeristsideofChinawasunleashed.

Thissidewillbeveryimportantinthecomingdecades.Chinesegrowthisslowingdownat
themoment,formanyreasons.Risingincomeshavemeanthigherwagesandcostsof
living,whichmeanspreviouslyprofitablefactories(operatingonrazorthinmargins)now
mustclosedown,andstillprofitablefactoriesseeadecreaseintheirreturnoninvestment.
TheseindustrieswillseemoreandmoreworkshifttoSoutheastAsia,tocountriessuchas
VietnamandThailand.Additionally,therateofinfrastructureandhousingconstruction
hasslowedassomeplacesexperienceaglutinsupplyandthecosteffectivenessofeach
newprojectdecreases.ThisdoesnotmeananendtoChina'sgrowth,though,butrathera
changeofgears.

Aslowendmanufacturingshiftstoothercountriesandconstructionslows,China's
manufacturingsectormustmoveintohigherendindustries.Thismeansjetturbinesand
highprecisioninstruments,siliconchipsandmoreindustriesthathavebeentraditionally
dominatedbytheU.S.,Taiwan,andotherprominentmanufacturersofhightechgoods.It
isalreadypartwaythereafterall,theydomaketheiPhone(albeitunderaTaiwanese
company).

Butmorethanthat,China'sconsumermarketmustalsopickuptheslackwhereits
investmentledgrowthleftoffthismeansdomesticfirmsoughttoriseupandservicethe
needsofChina's1.4billionconsumersbyprovidingbabyformula,entertainment,life
insurance,etc.

Thecentralgovernmentrecognizestheneedforthischangetooccurandismakingefforts
toencouragesuchashifttighterregulationsonfoodproducts,forexample,whichisone
ofthemostcontroversialissuesinthenationandonethatnearlyeveryaverageChinese
personisawareof.Butthereareheavilyentrenchedinterestgroupsthatstilldependon
constructiontofilluptheirpocketbooks,sotheprocessisnotsospickandspan.ButIdo
believethisshiftwilloccursuccessfully.Andno,Chinawillnotsomehowplummetback
intotheStoneAgeaftersomehowstumblingintoarecessionbecausethepropertybubble
popped(thoughthatbubbleisprettyscarytolookat).Itisanecessaryshiftandonethat
willhopefullyhelpitcontinuetoraiseitslivingstandardswithoutaccompanyingrisesin
pollutionandfoodcontaminationscares.Itwillalsoinfluencethecharacteroftheworld
economyasfirmsacrosstheglobeshifttheirowngearstomeetthegrowingdemandofthe
world'slargestconsumermarket(notthattheyhaven'talreadybeendoingsoforyears).
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IfyousimplelookfromaGDPperspective,wecanroughlydivideGDPintosectorsof
agriculture,industry,andservices.
AccordingtotheCIAHandbookthisisChina'sGDPcomposition:
agriculture:9.2%
industry:42.6%
services:48.2%
(2014est.)
ThisistheU.S.GDPcomposition:
agriculture:1.6%
industry:20.7%
services:77.7%

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(2014est.)
IfyoulookatotherlargeGDPeconomies,ormoredevelopedcountriesliketheUS,theyall
havehigherservicesectorcomposition.
Japan:
agriculture:1.2%
industry:24.5%
services:74.3%(2013est.)
UnitedKingdom agriculture:0.6%
industry:20.6%
services:78.8%
(2014est.)
ofcoursetherearesomeoutliers,likeGermanyorSouthKoreaintermsofindustrysector
percentages,butwecanagreethatwecannotpindownaneconomyjustbasedon3
variables.
ChinaasadevelopINGcountryhasbeentryingtomodernizeitscitiesforawhile,but
becauseofthevastpopulation,itstillneedstocontinuetobuildandmanufacture.
However,inordertomovetowardadevelopEDcountry,itwouldneedtotransfersome
industrialactivitiesintoservicesectoractivities.WiththeChinesecurrencyappreciating
comparedtolesserdevelopingcountries,itisfacingpressuretomovefromlowskilled
labortohigherskilledlaborcommoninservicesectors.
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Ithinkit'sveryhardanditwilltakealongtime.Chinaeconomyhadbeendrivenbyexport
andinvestmentinthepastthreedecades,butnowbothofthemareunlikelytobounce
backinnearfuture.Thecountryistryingtomakedomesticconsumptionitsmajor
economicengine,butittakestimeforittogrowstrongenoughtooffsetdecliningofexport
andinvestment.
VisitthesiteforChina'sEconomyandFinancialMarkets
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