Forces of Urban Centralization and Decentralization

Author(s): Homer Hoyt

Source: The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 46, No. 6 (May, 1941), pp. 843-852
Published by: The University of Chicago Press
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2769393
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 FORCES OF URBAN CENTRALIZATION AND
DECENTRALIZATION
HOMER HOYT

ABSTRACT
Urban concentralization may signifyeitherthe settlementofa largepercentageofa
nation's populationin metropolitanareas or the concentrationof the dwellersof any
city into a compactmass with highpopulationdensityper acre. The termis used in
thisarticlein bothsenses. The urbanfunctionsthat oncecontributedto urbancentrali-
zation,namely,(i) centralizedgovernmental power,(2) defense,(3) religion,(4) amuse-
ment, (5) trade, (6) industry,(7) transportation,(8) financeand banking,and (9)
utilities,are now promotingurban decentralizationin the formof the exodus of the
residentialpopulationfromcentralareas to the peripheryof cities. A historicalreview
ofurbandevelopmentshowsthat the originalsmallnationsin the Mediterraneanbasin
were finallymergedinto the Roman Empire,with the apex of ancienturban civiliza-
tion at Rome itself. The disintegrationof the Roman Empire caused urban decen-
tralizationin the sense of the breaking-upof large cities. The small feudal states of
the early Middle Ages could supportonly villagesor small townsin Europe. The rise
of modernurban communitiesbegan withthe growthof commerceand the discover-
ies of the Portugueseand Spanish navigators.England became the firstgreatcommer-
cial manufacturingnation and became highlyurbanized by the middle of the nine-
teenthcentury.The United States and Germanymade rapidprogressin industrializa-
tion and urbanizationfromI851 to I89I. The competitionbetweenrival industrial-
urban nationswas one of the chiefcauses ofWorld War I. After1920, Russia, Italy,
and Japan endeavoredto develop self-sufficing industrial-military
systems,thereby
increasingthe populationof theirgreatcitiesbut also heighteningthe tensionleading
to WorldWar II. The prospectsforcontinuedurban centralizationin all thesepowers
are not favorable,forthe victoryofone groupofnationswill tendto inhibitthe growth
of urbanismin the defeatedstates.

The term"urbancentralization" mayhave a twofoldmeaning.First,

it maysignify theconcentration ofa considerable
proportion ofthepopu-
lationof a nationintogreatcities. Second,it may meanthatthe work-
shopsand residencesof any givenurbancommunity in
are concentrated
a compactmass ratherthanspreadthinlyoverits metropolitan region.
Conversely, thephrase"urbandecentralization" maysignify thebreaking-
up oflargecitiesintowidelyseparatedsmalltowns,oritmaydenotemove-
mentof the industries and the residentialpopulationfromthecenterto
the periphery of the same urbanmass. It is proposedin thisarticleto
discussthefunctions urbancentralization
affecting and decentralization
in both thesesenses.First,what are thesecentripetaland centrifugal
urbanforces?
The following whichmaybe regardedas theprimarycauses
functions,
of theassociationofpeoplein citiesand whichserveto explainwhythe
cityis possibleand desirable,may be enumerated:(i) centralizedgov-
843
844 THE AMERICAN JOURNALOF SOCIOLOGY

ernmental power,(2) defense,(3) religion,(4) amusement,(5) trade,(6)

industry,(7) transportation, (8) financeand banking,and (9) utilities.
Citiescan comeintoexistenceonlywhenthereis an agricultural sur-
plus whichcan be transported to a populationwhichdoes not raise its
fooddirectly.It is truethatlargeagricultural villagesmay be simplya
clusterof farmhouses, groupedtogetherforcommunity living,but the
greatcity,withits government officials,
merchants, industrialists,
etc.,
is a community dependingupontheexchangeofitsservicesfortheprod-
ucts of the soil. Hence theremustbe a basis forexchangebetweenthe
cityand its tributaryruralarea, whetherit be exchangeof goods and
servicesor a levyby thecityfortaxesor tribute.Theremustbe means
of transportation forbringingfoodto the city,and theremustbe a gov-
ernmentalauthoritycapable of protecting the supplylinesfromseizure
by hostilenationsor robbers.

I. CENTRALIZED POWER
Whenancientempiresextendedtheirswayoverrivalterritories as in
the case ofancientPersiaor Rome,theyincreasedthe tributary area of
thecapitalcityand enabledit to becomea greatmetropolis.Conversely,
a seriesof smallfeudalstateswillhave hinterlands of limitedscopeand
willconsequently be characterized by a villageor small-town economy.
In thegreatcitythepalace of thekingor emperoris the centerof au-
thorityand theapex of social desirability.Near by is thegoldhoardor
the treasury, thepalaces ofnobles,and thetemplesof thegods.
In theUnitedStatestodaythegrowthofthefederalpowerhas acceler-
ated theexpansionofWashington, D.C., and itsenvirons.A factoraiding
the decentralization of cities,on the otherhand, is the maintenanceof
numerous independent politicalsubdivisions,townsand citiesin thesame
metropolitan area withdifferences in tax rates,zoning,and municipal
regulations.The centralcity in the metropolitan communitymay be
the chiefworkshopof the regionand may bear the chiefcostsof water
supply,portfacilities, schools,etc.,but its workersmay seek to escape
fromthe municipalcostsof the highlyintegratedcentersby takingup
theirresidencein suburbantownsor countrydistrictswhosetax rates
are lowerbecausetheydo nothave to bearthecostsofthecomplexfunc-
tionsof the centralcity. In thiscase centralization of municipalpower
by incorporating all the satellitetownsand suburbancommunities into
onemetropolitan community wouldsimplify thegovernmental procedure
and resultin a moreequitabledistribution ofthetaxburdenamongthose
whosharein thebenefitofthemetropolitan region.One ofthecausesof
 URBAN CENTRALIZATIONAND DECENTRALIZATION 845

urbandecentralization
withinthemetropolitan
communityis themove-
mentofpeopleworkingin the cityto communities
withlowertaxes on
thefringeof themetropolitan
region.

II. DEFENSE

The patternoftheancientcitywas compactbecauseit was surrounded

by a wall. Protectionoflifeand propertywas oncethemostvitalreason
forurbancentralization. In earlyAmericathe settlersgatheredbehind
the walls of a stockadeor fortduringIndian raids. Ancientcitieswere
builtarounda hilllikethe AcropolisofAthensor the CapitolineHill of
Rome,whichweretheirchiefstronghold. Walls inclosedan area ofland
aroundthiscitadellargeenoughto housethepopulationofthetributary
area in case ofinvasionand evento provideforemergency gardens.The
walls of citieson a flatplain weresometimesveryimposing,reputedly
being72 feethighin thecase ofancientBabylon.
The citypopulationlivedina verycompactarea intheseancientwalled
cities.The streetsofRomewereonly7-IO feetwide;tenamentsreached
a heightofio stories;and a populationofi,ooo,ooO at thetimeofAugus-
tus was compressed within6 or 7 squaremiles.
Whena nationmaintainedarmieson itsfrontiers and establishedpeace
and orderovera widearea, walls inclosingthe citieswereunimportant,
even in ancienttimes.Cnossusin Creteevidentlydependedforsecurity
on a navyand was notwalled. In ancientEgyptthecitieswereprotected
by the desertand theircomparativeisolationin the Nile Valley. When
Augustusestablishedorderin the ancientworld,suburbsgrewbeyond
thewallsofRomeand Carthage.The internalstructure ofthecitycould
thenshowexpansionof villason theperiphery.Marco Polo likewisere-
portsthatthemaincityofKubla Khan had twelvesuburbsbeyondeach
oftheprincipalgates,becausetheKhan maintainedpostroadsand mili-
tarypowerovera vast territory. Nevertheless, a walledcitylike Con-
stantinoplewas a stronghold in an emergency, and the soldiersof the
ByzantineEmpirewereforcedto retreatmanytimesbehindthe fortifi-
cationsof theirprincipalcity.
Modern artilleryand airplanes,however,have made the compact
walledcityan easy targetforlong-range shellsand bombs. Modernmili-
tarydefenseinsteadofbeinga centralizing is a decentralizing
urbanforce.
Airplanefactories are moresecurefromhostileattackwhendecentralized
or dividedintosmallbranchesprotectedby a screenof trees.Peopleare
safestwhenscatteredin ruralhomes.Thus thefunctionof defensenow
846 THE AMERICAN JOURNALOF SOCIOLOGY

tendsto cause dispersionof the urbanmass insteadof its increasedcon-

centration.
III. RELIGION

Religionwas at firsta centralizing

force.The templeof the god was
the seat of authorityor a sanctuaryfromenemies.Conqueringnations
of the ancientworldnot onlyoverthrew the kingsof small statesbut
also theirlocalgodsand establishedone paramountdeityfortheempire,
withthetemplein thecapitalcity. Thus Bel was enshrinedin Babylon,
Assurin Nineveh,Ammonin Thebes. When worshipersof numerous
local deitiesmetin a commoncenter,as at Mecca, thewaywas prepared
forunitingArabia underone god withMohammedas his prophet.The
prestigeof ancientRome as an imperialcityled to its emergenceas the
dominating seatofpapal authority.The cathedralwas themostimposing
edificein the medievaltown. With the rise of the numeroussects of
Protestantism and thedeclinein theemphasisuponthephysicaltempleor
cathedralas the centerof religiousauthority,religionhas declinedas a
factorin urbancentralization.

IV. AMUSEMENT

The theaterof PericleanAthensor of ElizabethanEngland,thepag-

eantryoftheretinueofa greatlordpassingthrough thestreetsofLondon,
the religiousfestivalswitha parade fromthe principalgate of the city
to the templeof the god-all theseattractpeopleas the flameattracts
moths.It is in thecapitalcitywherethegreatestamphitheater, themost
elaborategladiatorialgames,and the are
bestperformers found.Cham-
pionshipprizefights,major-league baseball,are magnetsforthemodern
urbancrowd.The sightsof the metropolis, whetherit be the Acropolis
of Athens,the HangingGardensof Babylon,the Forumof Rome, St.
Paul's in London,NotreDame or theEiffelTowerin Paris, theWashing-
tonMonumentor theEmpireState Building,are marvelsto thecountry
bumpkin.The citybrightlights,nightclubs,and thetheaterdrawpeople
to a centralarea in the metropoliswherethe mostfamousperformers
appear.
In the centralbusinessdistrictsof our greatcitiesthe stageformerly
exerteda centralizing urban influence.Now the advent of the motion
pictureand theradiohaveprovedpowerful factorsbecause
decentralizing
thebestmotionpicturecan be seenat theoutlyingneighborhood theater
and thePresidentof theUnitedStatescan be heardin a fireside chat at
everyfarmhome.
 URBAN CENTRALIZATION AND DECENTRALIZATION 847

V. TRADE
The necessityofmeetingat a commonplace fortheexchangeofgoods
at someport or crossroadsis a centripetalurbanforce.The Forumof
Rome was the centralmarketof the Empire. In medievaltimestrade
was sporadicwithfairsand marketsat statedintervals,but in modern
timesit has becomea regularand systematicoccurrence.Daily crowd
movements alongcertainstreetshave createdshoppinghabits. The de-
partmentstore,offering manyspecialtiesunderone roof,was a central-
izinginfluence in theretailtrades.Hence buildingsliketheMerchandise
Mart in Chicagolikewiseconcentrated a considerablepart of thewhole-
sale tradeof thecityundera singleroof.
The mail-order house,thechainstore,and the specialtyshopsin out-
lyingcentershave beendecentralizing retailfactors,however.Difficulty
in finding parkingplaces forautomobileshas acceleratedthegrowthof
satelliteloopswithbranchesofthecentraldepartment stores.Similarly,
directbuyingfromfactorieshas decentralized wholesaletrading.
VI. INDUSTRY
The modernindustrial citywas usheredin by thesteamengine.Con-
centration ofworkersin factorieswas necessitatedby thefactthatsteam
powerhad to be used nearitspointofgeneration.In daysofslowtrans-
portationthatlikewisemeantconcentration ofhomesnearthe factories.
Electricpoweris decentralizingbecauseelectriccurrentcan be distributed
over a wide area. Automobileshave likewiseincreasedthe mobilityof
theworker.Whilefactories are stillpredominantlylocatedin greatmet-
ropolitanareas,theyare nowat thefringeof thoseareas ratherthanat
the center,because the advantageof cheap land, permitting one-story
factoriesand continuityofindustrial operations, serv-
railroadfreight-car
ice to thefactory,and low taxes,can best be servedon theperiphery of
thecity,wheretheouterrailroadbeltlines,theauto truck,and theauto-
mobilefurnish transportationforgoodsand forlabor.
VII. FINANCE AND BANKING
Brokersnecessarilymeet in a centralplace to constitutea common
marketforsecuritiesand commodities.Cable lines,telegraphwires,tele-
phonelines,cometo a focusat a commonpointand relaytheminute-to-
minutechangesin pricesto all partsof theworld.Stockexchangesand
commodity exchangesare centripetal
forces.Yet the declinein security
tradingin the UnitedStateshas lessenedthe importance of thistypeof
financialcentralization.Branch bankingalso dispersesconcentrated
banking-power to someextent.
848 THE AMERICAN JOURNALOF SOCIOLOGY

VIII. TRANSPORTATION
Transportation permitsgreatcitiesto comeintoexistenceby tapping
a sufficiently
wide agricultural
area to supplythemwithfood. It like-
wisepermitsa largepopulationto workand tradein a centralcityby
expandingthe radiuswithinwhichtheycan live and commuteto the
metropolis.Yet swifttransportationby automobilehas beena greatde-
centralizing
factorin the internalpatternof cities,forit permitsthe
urbanpopulationto spreadout in a patternofdiffusesettlementrather
thanto gatherin a concentratedmass.
IX. UTILITIES

Utilities,such as paved streetsand sewerage,are centralizing forces

and once constitutedone of the chiefattractionsof the city. Priorto
I900, afterthe cityline was passed, a quagmireof mud or a cloud of
dustwas encountered.Cityconveniences and modernbathtubswerenot
to be found.
First the telephone,then electriclights,the concretehighwayand
automobile,the septictank,and the radio gave the advantagesof the
cityto therural-urban fringe.The citydwellercan nowhave hisgarden
in the country,in a community of curvingstreetsand cul-de-sacs,and
stillretainthe comforts of the cityin his home. Thus utilitieslikewise
have becomea centrifugal urbanforce.
Such has been the separateeffectof each of the functionsaffecting
urbancentralization or decentralization.
How have theseforcesoperated
to producethe rise and fall of greatcitiesover the periodof recorded
history?A completeanalysisof urbanismwould,of course,requirean
encyclopedia, but a briefreviewofsomeofthesignificant turning-points
may directtheway to further studies.
In ancientEgyptin thevalleyoftheNile oneofthefirsturbanciviliza-
tionsdeveloped.At firstin theperiodpriorto 4000 B.C., theNile Valley
was dividedintoapproximately twentyfeudalstatesor nomes,each with
smallvillages.The consolidation ofEgyptintotwokingdomsand finally
intoone,withthetriumph ofonekingand onegod,led toa centralization
ofauthorityin one greatmetropolis-Memphis, in thedelta of theNile.
The advantagesofunifiedadministration of theirrigationsystemof the
Nile facilitatedtheriseof thiscentralpower.
The surplusfoodoftheNile Valleysupportedthepharoahand priests,
theriverNile was themediumoftransportation, thedesertson bothsides
oftheNile protectedthecountryfromexternalinvasion,and a powerful
rulermaintainedinternalorder.The structure of thesecitieswas in the
formof longand narrowsettledareas along themarginbetweenthe in-
 URBAN CENTRALIZATIONAND DECENTRALIZATION 849

undatedarea and the desert.Compact circularwalled citieswere not

necessarybecauseofEgypt'srelativeisolation.
In Mesopotamia,on the otherhand,greatwalledcitieslike Babylon
arosebecauseof theproximity ofmaraudingtribes.Citiesin theTigris-
EuphratesValleystruggled withone anotherformastery,and Babylon
was the metropolis of the conqueringkingand god. Similarly,Nineveh
becamea greatcapitalwhentheconstantwarsof the Assyrianshad re-
duced hundredsof pettykingdomswithsmallertownsinto submission.
Thus, as a resultof innumerable blitzkriegs by ancientmilitarystates,
the Near East was consolidatedintofourgreatkingdoms-Egypt,As-
syria,Babylon,and Lydia. The Persiansblottedout Assyriaand con-
queredLydia,Babylon,and Egypt. Consequently, the Persiankingsac-
quiredoneconsolidated empireembracing all theseancientkingdoms, and
thetributeofthisancientworldwas sentto thenew capitalswhichtheir
kingsestablished.Alexanderthe Greatin turnwon the PersianEmpire
and the accumulatedgold hoardof the ancientworldin a fewdecisive
battles.
Meanwhilein thewesternMediterranean, the cityof Rome was con-
tendingfirstwithothersmallcitiesin Italy and finallywithCarthagefor
thesupremacy ofthewesternMediterranean.Spain and Gaul werethen
in a tribalstage. WhenRome had finallycrushedCarthage,the petty
tribalstatesofSpainhad likewisebeenbrokendownby superiormilitary
power. Caesar latersmashedthetribalfederations in Gaul. Thus Rome
pulverizedthe tribaleconomyin the West and preparedthe way for
urban centralization. Into the lap of the disciplinedlegionsof Rome,
withouta seriousstruggle, fellthe East, whereEgyptians,Babylonians,
Assyrians,Persians,and Macedonianshad previouslybrokenup local
autonomyand establishedcentralized authority.Thus,Romeby thetime
ofAugustusbecametheheiroftheancientMediterranean world.At the
beginning oftheChristianEra peace and orderhad beenestablishedover
the entirebordersof thisgreatinlandsea. Urbanismreachedits peak
up to thattime. The populationof Rome reacheda million,and it was
supportedby importsofgrainfromSicily,Egypt,or NorthAfricalevied
as taxes.
Hundredsof othercitiesconnectedby hard-surfaced roadsflourished
in the Roman Empire.These citieswereprotectednot by theirwalls
but by theRomanlegionsstationedon thefrontiers. Hence theoriginal
compactwalledcitycould expandinto the suburbs.Rich Romanshad
theirvillasin thecountry.OutsideofrebuiltCarthagewerehortior large
estateswithgardens.
These greatcitiesof the Roman Empiredid not existprimarilybe-
850 THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY

cause of manufacturingor even because of trade. Centralized govern-

mental authority with power to collect a surplus from the country dis-
trictsto support a city population made great Roman cities possible, and
amusements in the form of gladiatorial games, circuses, theaters, and
baths made these urban centers attractive and desirable.
The internal decay of the Roman Empire in the third century A.D.
and its finaldisintegrationin the West by the fifthand sixthcenturies
of our era destroyedthe basis of this great urban civilization.Trade
routeswerebrokenup by invadingtribesso thatfoodcouldno longerbe
shippedto thecities,and theauthority was lackingto collectthesurplus
productsof the provinces.The populationof Rome declinedfromthe
millionofthetimeofAugustusto 5o,ooo by thesixthcenturyA.D. Only
Constantinople remainedas thegreatfortified cityof thisancientworld.
Urbandecentralization in thesensethattherewerethousandsof vil-
lagesand fewgreatcitiesreacheditspeak in theDark Agesor theninth
or tenthcenturiesA.D. At that time therewere ninehundredfeudal
statesin Francealone,and constantwarfarewas wagedbetweenthou-
sands ofpettybarons.The size oftownswas limitedby theagricultural
area near by whichcould be protectedby the powerof the local lord.
Graduallyconsolidation oftheauthority ofthekingor thecentralpower
beganin France,and it was achievedin Englandquicklyby Williamthe
Conquerorin A.D. io66.
The citiesthatbeganto risein theMiddleAgeswerebased on trade,
whichwas at firstsmallin volumeand limitedto a fewnecessitiessuch
as salt, iron,or wool. These citiesprotectedtheircommerceby force,
and, whennationalstatesweresmalland thepowerof the kingor em-
perorweak,a citycouldhold a relativelystrongposition.
By meansof its navy,Venice,actingas intermediary in the tradebe-
tweenEurope and the Orientin spices and silk, rose to prominence.
PortuguesenavigatorsencircledAfricaand tapped the richspice trade
at its source,makingLisbon forthetimethe centerofworld-commerce.
Spain,withthebestarmyin Europeand a greatarmada,discoveredand
tookoverthenewworldwithitsgoldand silver. Holland conqueredthe
Portugueseand becametheheirsof theEast Indies.
It was England,however,whofinallyemergedas thechieftradingna-
tion,beginning withtheconquestoftheSpanishArmadain I588. Laying
thebasisbycolonization oftheAmericas, byconquering India,bysettling
in Africaand Australia,by acquiringkey positionsin Gibralter,Suez,
Singapore,Hong Kong,etc.,and by thesupremacy ofhernavy,England
establishedfreeworld-commerce. This tradeengendereda demandfor
Englishmanufactured goods,whichled to the inventionof thespinning
 URBAN CENTRALIZATIONAND DECENTRALIZATION 851

jenny,thesteamengine,and all theothermechanicaldevicesformaking

goodscheaperand faster.
The tremendous expansionofurbanismin thepast centurywas made
possibleby steampowerappliedto manufacturing, forit permittedan
industrialnation to draw food and materialsfromall the agricultural
raw material-producing nationsto keep its factoriesgoingand to sup-
portconcentrated populationin its cities.
Englandfirsthad a monopolyon thenewmanufacturing and
processes,
thenurbanismmademostrapidstrides.Even by i8oi, I7 percentofits
populationlived in citiesof 20,000 or over,and by I85I over halfof its
populationlived in such cities.In I85I the UnitedStates and Prussia
werein theirindustrialinfancy, and only6 per centof thepopulationof
the UnitedStates,3 per cent of the populationof Prussia,and i.6 per
centofthepopulationofRussia livedin citiesof ioo,ooo or over.
AftertheCivilWar in theUnitedStatesand aftertheFranco-Prussian
War boththeUnitedStatesand Germanyforgedahead as industrial na-
tionsand competedwithEnglandforthemarketsoftheworld.Urbanism
grewwith industrialism as the percentageof people livingin citiesof
I00,000 andoverincreased from 6 to I5.5 percentin theUnitedStates,
and from3 to I3 per centin Prussiafromi85I to I89I. The industrial
rivalrybetweenGreatBritainand Germanywas one of theoutstanding
causesofWorldWar I.
In I914, Russia, Italy, and Japan were relativelybackwardindus-
trially;but,sincethefirstworldwardemonstrated thatindustrialization
and consequently urbanizationwas a prerequisite to militarypower,all
thesenationshastenedto buildup self-sufficing factorysystems.Conse-
quently,the proportionof personslivingin citiesof ioo,ooo and over
between i89I and I93I increased from7 percentto I7 percentinItaly
and from6 per centto 22 per centin Japan. Russia,underits five-year
plans, hastenedto expand its basic industries, and fromI926 to I939
its urbanpopulationincreasedfromI7 percentto 33 percentofits total
population.Thus, as a resultof competitionbetweengreat industrial
nations,theproportion ofthepopulationlivingin greatcitiesin thepast
centuryand a halfgreatlyincreasedfirstin England,thenin theUnited
Statesand Germany,and finallyin Italy,Russia,and Japan. Urbaniza-
tionalso proceededrapidlyin Australiaand in thegreatseaporttrading
citiesofBuenosAires,Rio de Janeiro,Shanghai,Calcutta,and Bombay.
In theperiodfromi8oo to I940, thirty-eight citiesgainedi,ooo,ooopopu-
lationforthefirsttime.
Notwithstanding theserapidstridesof urbanism,the Orientremains
predominately in thestageofvillageeconomy.Five-sixths oftheworld's
852 THE AMERICAN JOURNALOF SOCIOLOGY

populationstilllive in severalmillionagricultural villages.This village

societyis thematrixout ofwhichthegreatcityrosein thepast and into
whichit will disintegrate if our highlyinterrelated urban civilization
shouldevercollapse.
Greatcitieshave thusexpandedwiththeriseof competingindustrial
nations,each of whichhas sufficient manufacturing capacityto supply
most of the world.In the secondworldwar two groupsof industrial
powersare in a life-and-death strugglewitheach other.Bothcannotwin.
To maintainthepresentpopulationofLondon,Liverpool,and Birming-
ham,Englandmusthave a world-wide trade. If England'straderoutes
are disrupted, hergreatcitieswilldecline.On theotherhand,by seizing
Vienna,Warsaw,Prague,Copenhagen,Oslo,Brussels,Amsterdam, Ant-
werp,and Paris, Germanyhas subordinated thesecitiesto hereconomy.
If Germancitiesexpandas a resultofdomination oftheEuropeanconti-
nent,theseothercontinental citieswillprobabledwindle.If theGerman
poweris smashed,Berlinand Hamburgwill shrink.The cities in the
UnitedStates,like New York, whichweredependentforpart of their
supportupon the greatflowof commercebetweenNorthAmericaand
Europe,maylikewisebe adverselyaffected by theclosingof marketsin
Europe,Africa,and Asia by hostilepowers.
It thusappearsthat the spectaculargrowthof urbanismof the past
centuryand a halfhas come to at least a temporary halt. The world-
population,whichincreasedfrom8oo,ooo,ooo to over 2,000,000,ooo in
thatperiod,cannotcontinueto gainat thesame rate. The declinein the
birthrate in the UnitedStatesand westernEurope,the damming-up of
the streamof immigration, the disruptionof traderoutesby wars and
government control,and thebombingofgreatcitiesfromtheair are all
tending torestrictthesourcesofgrowth ofgreataggregations ofpopulation.
The breakupof thelargemetropolitan area has notyet come to pass
withintheUnitedStates. The populationofeightofourlargestcitiesdid
failto gain fromI930 to I940, whichwas thefirstdecade in ourhistory
in whichthelargestcitiesdid not increasetheirnumbers.However,the
suburbsof theseeightcitiesare stillgrowing.Innerdecay at the city's
centeris takingplace, because of the decentralizing trendsin manufac-
turing,trade,religion,amusements,transportation, and utilitieswhich
have alreadybeen noted. A greaterdangerlurksahead, that the whole
supporting bases ofourgreatmetropolitan areas willbe so weakenedby
war,hightaxes,and class conflicts that the structure of our highlyspe-
cializedurbansocietyoftodaywillbeginto crackand willfinallycollapse
as did theurbancivilizationof theRomanEmpire.
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