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Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Craig Harrington - Electric Power Research Institute
Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the _ ....
U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE- Frederick Brust Robert Kurth Engineering Mechanics Corporation
AC04-94AL85000. SAND No. 2015-XXXXXX of Columbus
xLPR within a Regulatory Framework
10CFR50 Appendix A, General Design Criterion -4:
" ... dynamic effects associated with postulated pipe ruptures in
nuclear power units may be excluded from the design basis when analyses
reviewed and approved by the Commission demonstrate that the probability
of fluid system piping rupture is extremely low ... "
SRP 3.6.3 does not allow for assessment of piping systems with active
degradation such as Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking (PWSCC)
However, subsequent to the approval of LBB at most US PWRs, PWSCC
growth has been observed in many weld locations
Industry implemented an enhanced inspection and mitigation program
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xLPR V2.0 - Conceptual flow
Probabilistic fracture mechanics in a weld
I Nozzle
Material Properties
t=t
Initiation
Leakage Inspection/
^ligation
Steel Pipe
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xLPR V2.0 - Model flow chart
Input and option reading Mitigation
User inputs Mechanical Stress
Chemical
Improvement Process
(zinc and hydrogen)
Pre-processing Materials | M SIP >
Stress intensity properties and
Leak rale CDFs database Weld inlay Weld overlay
(change in crack length, (change in WRS,
materials, WRS) materials, wall thickness)
Sampling structure
Epistemic Aleatory
sampling sampling
Crack propagation
Crack growth Critical flaw
K-field
module module
Initiation COO module
Crack type: axial vs. Weld residual
Load Crack Crack initiation circumferential stress (WRS)
module location module Leak rate
Surface vs through wall Crack coalescence module
cracks stability module
Inspection
module
Sampiii sa
Statistical
loop analysis
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xLPR V2.0 - Framework
Input
Distributions Circ_Crack_Type
Circ_Crack_Growth
Tip_material_cc
i_ServiceJnspection m| ] ra| i
Circ_Crack_StabiI ity
Circ_Crack_Leak_Rate Circ_Crack_COD
Approximately 500 G ET STARTED WELD TYPE DATABASE MATERIAL DATABASE AXIAL WR5 DATABASE HOOP WRS DATABASE SHARE TOOLS HELP WEB.BUILD85
inputs, most of
which may be
Weld Type Edit Save New Duplicate Delete General. Weld Operating. Mitigation Cracks Inspection/Leak Correlations
Selector v Options Conditions Options Detection
defined as xLPR Sim Editor is currently a Development (Beta) version of the software. Development versions of this software should NOT be distributed,
distributions DM-RCV (P) | View or update the General Weld Options properties in the Weld Type database.
directly read by
Weld Material: {inconel 182 (P)
Geometry
Weld Type
GoldSim but
learning curve for
Data Source: Constant : Distribution: NORMAL
I
'D.
[Min:
h
e;----------------------
I Max]:
Importance Value:
SimEditor-tool to
help users fill in Geometry
Pipe Outer Diameter
spreadsheet and
0.885825 Mean: |o.34
Importance Value:
no
0.5
0.066675 Means
Importance Sampling: no
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xLPR V2.0 - Sampling strategy
Two loops are considered (one can be ignored by setting the sampling
size to 1). For each loop, the user can select from the following
options:
Simple random sampling (Monte Carlo) or Latin Hypercube Sampling
(LHS)
Discrete Probability Distribution (DPD)
Importance sampling applied to selected values
Possibility of creating 8 sampling combination:
[LHS vs. RS]x[DPD vs. no DPD]x[No importance vs. importance] for
each loop (totaling 8 epistemic X 8 aleatory = 64 combinations)
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Representation and Interpretation of Results
Parameters selected either as aleatory or epistemic: guidance needed
Aleatory uncertainty represents the risk. Epistemic uncertainty represent the level of
Not simply [probability]x[consequence] knowledge we have with respect to this risk
but probability and consequence related Sandia
POWER
to randomness i INSTITUTE
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Laboratories
Deterministic Model within xLPR
Inspection
Repair & Mitigation
Modular - enables future updates to
physical models
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Results Available form xLPR Runs
GoldSim Player - xLPR-2.0 Beta2.1_R5 Probabilistic 2015-06-18.gsp
General Results
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Effect of Including Axial Cracks
Circ. Only vs. Circ. & Axial
1.0E+00
1.0E-01
<D
U
c
<D
3
u
1.0E-02
u
O
> 1.0E-03
!E
ro
.Q
o
Q
1.0E-04
C
ro
<u
1.0E-05
1.0E-06
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (yr)
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Effect of Including Fatigue
PWSCC & Fatigue vs. PWSCC Only
1.0E+00
1.0E-01
<u
u
c
<D
3u
u
O 1.0E-02
O
<4-
1.0E-05
30
Time (yr)
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Effect of ISI Interval
ISI Interval 10 yr vs. 20 yr
1.0E+00
1.0E-01
<u
3
u
u
O
o
1.0E-02
!E
So
c
ro ----- Occurr. Of Crack - 20 yr ISI
<u 1.0E-03 -----Occurr. Of Crack - 10 yr ISI
----- Occurr. Of Leak - 20 yr ISI
-----Occurr. Of Leak - 10 yr ISI
----- Occurr. Of Rupture - 20 yr ISI
-----Occurr. Of Rupture - 10 yr ISI
1.0E-04
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (yr)
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Effect of Chemical Mitigation
No Mitigation vs. Zn and H2 at 20 yrs
1.0
0.9
0.8
DO
0.7
JO
0.6
I
O
M
0.5
0.4
si
o
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
10 20 30 40
Time (yr)
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Effect of Mechanical Mitigation
No Mitigation vs. Weld OverLay (WOL) at 20 yrs
1
0.9
0.8
<D
U
c
<D 0.7
3u
u
O 0.6
> 0.5
!E
ro
.q 0.4
o
Q
C
ro 0.3
<u
0.2
0.1
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Time (yr)
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Use of Importance Sampling
Comparison of Importance Sampling
1.0E-02
c
ro
<u Used to estimate very low probability events with
less realizations (for example the early life mean
rupture probabilities due to SSE)
Will converge to random sampling with large
enough simulations
1.0E-04
30
Time (yr)
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xLPR V2.0 Status
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Acknowledgements
Code Development Leads David Rudland - US NRC, Craig Harrington - EPRI
The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan (SRP) 3.6.3 describes Leak-Before-Break (LBB)
assessment procedures that can be used to assess compliance with the 10CFR50 Appendix A, GDC-4 requirement
that primary system pressure piping exhibit an extremely low probability of rupture. SRP 3.6.3 does not allow for
assessment of piping systems with active degradation mechanisms, such as Primary Water Stress Corrosion Cracking
(PWSCC) which is currently occurring in systems that have been granted LBB approvals. A cooperative effort between
the NRC and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) through a memorandum of understanding, conducted a
multi-year project that focused on the development of a viable method and approach to address the effects of
PWSCC in primary piping systems approved for LBB. This project, called extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR),
leverages existing fracture mechanics-based models employed to model the physical cracking behavior of piping
systems and a variety of computational options are provided to characterize, categorize and propagate problem
uncertainties. The xLPR code is modular and flexible to permit analysis of a variety of in-service situations, and
adaptable to accommodate evolving and improving knowledge. This presentation provides an overview of the code
structure, fracture-mechanics-based models, computational framework, treatment and propagation of uncertainties.
An example of PWSCC in piping systems will exercise different functionalities of the xLPR code to demonstrate its
application to assess compliance with 10CFR50 Appendix A, GDC-4. A comparison between the leak and rupture
probabilities will be made as a function of: with and without inclusion of axial cracks; with and without the inclusion
of fatigue loading; variations on the in-service inspection (ISI) intervals, with and without different chemical and
mechanical mitigation applied, and with and without importance sampling on selected inputs. The resulting
probabilities will qualitatively demonstrate which options have the most significant effect on the structural integrity
of the weld.
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Deterministic Model Backup Slides
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Deterministic Model - Crack Initiation
PWSCC 3 available LE+04 v/ dp con n err 1/3 3
1 = Ae-Q/RTon a >ari
Direct model 1 [1, 2, 3] tINI ,nom X A
D-z
Direct model 2 [4, 5] t,Ni = BGeQ'RT In
-z
ys
1/p
Weibull model 1 INI, nom e((-In (Uini ))
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Deterministic Model - Weld Residual Stress (WRS)
Post-mitigation hoop
WRS stress values may be
deterministic or normally
distributed.
Can importance sample
on inner diameter value.
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Deterministic Model - Stress Intensity Factors (SIF)
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Deterministic Model - Crack Growth
Only applicable to
circumferential cracks
Cracks assumed to be
in the same plane
Rule based to
determined if two
xLPR-SRD-Coalescence V2.2
cracks are close enough
to interact
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Deterministic Model - Inspection
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Deterministic Model - Crack Stability
Circumferential cracks
Surface Crack (SC) - Net Section Collapse
Through Wall Crack (TWC) - Net Section Collapse and/or
elastic-plastic tearing instability
Axial cracks
SC - limit load analysis in Ductile Fracture Handbook [21]
TWC - limit load and elastic-plastic tearing instability
For Dissimilar Metal (DM) welds material properties
used in stability modules are a combination of the
base metal material properties
Stability checked with/without SSE loads
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Deterministic Model - Crack Transition
xLPR-MVR-K CTM V1
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Deterministic Model - Crack Opening
Displacement (COD)
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Deterministic Model - Leak Rates
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Deterministic Model - Mitigation
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1.
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PVP2012-78180, July 2012, Toronto, Canada
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Piping Conference, PVP2014-28049, July 2014, Anaheim, CA, USA.
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22. Shim, D.J., Rudland, D., Harris, D., Modeling of Subcritical Crack Growth Due to Stress Corrosion Cracking - Transition from Surface Crack to Through- Wall Crack," Proceedings of the 2011 ASME Pressure Vessels
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Structures, Vol. 31(2), pp.197-209, 2008.
24. Scott, P., Olson, R. and Wilkowski, G.; Development of Technical basis for Leak-Before-Break Evaluation Procedures"; NUREG/CR-6765, May 2002.
25. B. A. Young, R. Olson, and M. Kerr, Advances in COD Modeling: Circumferential Through-Wall Cracks", ASME International, PVP 2012, PVP2012-78181, Toronto, ON, Canada, July 2012.
26. Michael L. Benson, Bruce A. Young, Do-Jun Shim, and Frederick W. Brust, Crack Opening Displacement Model for Through-Wall Axial Cracks in Cylinders," PVP2013- 98008, Proceedings of the 2013 ASME
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