Brazil is the worlds fifth-largest country.

This country is dominated by the Amazon River basin

and the worlds largest rain forest. The population of more than 200 million and they are heavily
concentrated on the coast. The current democratic constitution dates from 1988. Workers Party
President Dilma Rousseff, who sought to further the leftist and populist policy agenda begun by
her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was impeached and removed from office in 2016.
New President Michel Temer faces continuing corruption scandals and ongoing political chaos.
(2017 INDEX of Economic Freedom, 2017)

GDP:

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Brazil was worth 1796.19 billion US dollars in 2016. The
GDP value of Brazil represents 2.90 percent of the world economy. GDP in Brazil averaged
634.46 USD Billion from 1960 until 2016, reaching an all-time high of 2616.20 USD Billion in
2011 and a record low of 15.17 USD Billion in 1960. (Trading Economics, 2017). GDP reported
an annual decrease of 0.4% after declining 2.5% in the previous period and 5.4% a year earlier.
Seasonally adjusted GDP figures reported an increase of 1% in the first quarter from the previous
period. The GDP growth were continuously increasing from the year 2003 and onward except a
brief recession in the last quarters of 2008 which was faced by the country due to global
economic crisis. That was a crisis for global economy although Brazil did not suffer that much
and was able to recover that crisis soon, in the early 2009. And that quick recover was able to
attract foreign investors to Brazil. (Coutino, 2017)
GNP:
Gross National Product in Brazil decreased to 1560168.58 BRL Million in the first quarter of
2017 from 1589356.15 BRL Million in the fourth quarter of 2016. Gross National Product in
Brazil averaged 832973.57 BRL Million from 2000 until 2017, reaching an all time high of
1589356.15 BRL Million in the fourth quarter of 2016 and a record low of 264509.18 BRL
Million in the first quarter of 2000. (Trading Economics, 2017)
Inflation:
Basically the term Inflation refers a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value
of money. It is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and
services in a county and is measured as an annual percentage change. (Hayes, 2017). Inflation
measured by consumer price index (CPI) is defined as the change in the prices of a basket of
goods and services that are typically purchased by specific groups of households (OECD Data,
2017).

Consumer prices in Brazil increased 3 percent year-on-year in June of 2017, below 3.6 percent in
May and in line with market expectations of 3.06 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since
April of 2007, due to a slowdown in cost of food and a fall in electricity prices. Inflation Rate in
Brazil averaged 362.94 percent from 1980 until 2017, reaching an all-time high of 6821.31
percent in April of 1990 and a record low of 1.65 percent in December of 1998 (TRADING
ECONOMICS, 2017).

Interest Rate:

The Central Bank of Brazil unanimously cut its key Selic rate by 100 basis points to 9.25 percent
on July 26th of 2017, as widely anticipated. It was the seventh straight rate decline, bringing
borrowing costs to the lowest since September of 2013 amid slowing inflation and a sticky
contraction. The decision was unanimous and no bias was adopted. It follows a 100 bps cut in
the May 31st of 2017 meeting. Interest Rate in Brazil averaged 15.53 percent from 1999 until
2017, reaching an all-time high of 45 percent in March of 1999 and a record low of 7.25 percent
in October of 2012 (Trading Economics, 2017)

Unemployment Rate:

Unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force,
where the latter consists of the unemployed plus those in paid or self-employment. Unemployed
people are those who report that they are without work, that they are available for work and that
they have taken active steps to find work in the last four weeks. When unemployment is high,
some people become discouraged and stop looking for work; they are then excluded from the
labor force. (OECD Date, 2017).

The jobless rate in Brazil came in at 13.3 percent in the quarter ended May of 2017, well below
market expectations of 13.8 percent. The jobless rate declined for the second consecutive period
after reaching a record high of 13.7 percent in the first quarter of the year. Unemployment Rate
in Brazil averaged 8.61 percent from 2012 until 2017, reaching an all-time high of 13.70 percent
in March of 2017 and a record low of 6.20 percent in December of 2013 (Trading Economics,
2017).
For fostering economic growth and stability, financial development is essential. One of the key
components in this process is capital market development. For example, deepening the long-term
local bond market facilitates the reduction of currency and maturity mismatches on corporations
balance sheets. This also creates alternatives to bank financing that can support efficiency and
stability. However, the capital market of Brazil are still facing a number of challenges including
prevalent short-term indexation, investors risk aversion to long-term fixed rate bonds, still low
liquidity in the secondary market, and managing the role of BNDES. A Capital market
development in Brazil is a key policy issue going forward to foster savings, investment and
absorptive capacity in a context of prospects for sizable capital flows in the medium term

Capital Market:
Capital market is a market where share and bonds are trading. Here we can buy and sale equity.
Here equity means shareholders who are the owner of the business. On the other hand, debt
means people who issue bond. They are the lender of a company. So, its a liability for a
company.
Equity Market
Brazils capital market remains focused on short term instruments. Brazils equity market has
grown rapidly in terms of both market capitalization and transaction volumes. Total equity
market capitalization was about 55 percent of GDP in 2016 with a diversified investor base
including individuals, institutional investors, financial institutions, and foreign investors. This
growth has been fueled by a combination of strong market performance and a steady increase in
the total quantity of shares. Despite these gains, the Brazilian equity market still has a small
number of listings. Following a record 76 offerings (IPO and follow on) in 2012, the number of
offerings in the past three years has stabilized at lower levels. The growth in market
capitalization and the number of listed companies has slowed in the recent years. Cross-country
comparisons show that the number of listed companies is still lower than in advanced economies
and Brazils peers in Asia. Indeed, the share of the top 10 companies in market capitalization
has remained over 50 percent in the recent years.

Debt Market
The private bond market remains much smaller than that for the government. The outstanding
issuance of corporate bonds has risen to almost 10 percent of GDP in 2016, but the market is still
very concentrated in short duration rates, with a limited investor base and less diversified issuers.
This suggests that the private fixed income market is not a significant long-term financing source
for non-financial corporations. Indexation: Around 90 percent of private bonds are linked to the
DI rate, resulting in little incentive for active trading. The share of fixed rate bonds still remains
very low at about 1 percent of total private bonds, suggesting that investors remain reluctant to
take interest and credit risk in the private corporate sector. Investor base: about 70 percent of
private bonds were purchased by banks in 2016. Their participation has increased further
recently partly because they have faced constraints in expanding consumer loans given increased
risk and higher cost in the sector, and therefore have sought alternative higher yield investment
instruments. Liquidity in the secondary market is very limited as many banks tend to hold private
bonds until maturity. (Park, 2017)

Money Market:

The Central Bank of Brazil unanimously cut its key Selic rate by 100 basis points to 9.25 percent
on July 26th of 2017, as widely anticipated. It was the seventh straight rate decline, bringing
borrowing costs to the lowest since September of 2013 amid slowing inflation and a sticky
contraction. The decision was unanimous and no bias was adopted. It follows a 100 bps cut in
the May 31st of 2017 meeting. Interest Rate in Brazil averaged 15.53 percent from 1999 until
2017, reaching an all-time high of 45 percent in March of 1999 and a record low of 7.25 percent
in October of 2012. (TRADING ECONOMICS, 2017)

Monitory policy:
We are changing our call for the Selic rate in the short term from 14.25% p.a. to 15.25% p.a. The
latest monetary authority communication (The Open Letter to the Minister of Finance) increased
the possibility of the monetary tightening cycle being resumed in 2016, but also indicated that an
additional monetary tightening cycle should be incremental. The real ex-ante interest rate is
already higher than the neutral level, and a number of other factors tends to lead to a decline in
inflation expectations in the months ahead.

Fiscal policy:
The easier the fiscal stance, the tighter monetary policy would have to be. With the government
running a primary deficit, the fiscal policy stance remains expansionary, in our view, even
considering the primary result adjusted by the economic cycle (known as the structural primary
result). (Molan, 2016)

Ahmed Najin Khan Chowdhury

ID: 13204022

Brazil Indices
Broad Indexes
IBovespa (BVSP): The Bovespa Index (IBovespa) is the main indicator of the average performance
of the BM&FBovespa exchange. The IBovespa covers more than 80% of the trades and
approximately 70% of the market capitalization of the exchange. This index uses the market
capitalization method with 59 securities for calculating the index level. (Investing.com, 2017)

Bovespa Brazil 50 (IBrX50): The IBrX 50 is designed to measure average stock performance
tracking changes in the prices of the 50 most actively traded and best representative stocks of the
Brazilian stock market. This index uses the market capitalization method with 50 securities for
calculating the index level (BM&FBOVESPA, 2014).
Brazil Index 100 (IBrX100): It has the same purpose of IBRX 50, but embracing the 100 most traded
equities.

Brazil broad-Based (IBrA): The IBrA is designed to gauge the stock markets average performance
tracking changes in the prices (by round lots) of all stocks actively traded on the cash market
operated by BM&FBOVESPA (as long as certain minimum liquidity and active trading criteria
are met), so as to offer a broad-based view of the stock market as a whole. This index uses the
market capitalization method with 123 securities for calculating the index level
(BM&FBOVESPA, 2014).

Corporate Governance Indices

Bovespa Tag Along (ITAG): The Tag Along Index is composed of 180 equities that offer minority
shareholders better tag-along rights protection than required by law in the event of a disposition
of control (BM&FBOVESPA, 2014).

Corporate Governance Trade Index (IGCT): The IGCT is designed to measure average stock
performance tracking changes in the prices of 114 stocks selected as constituents of the Special
Corporate Governance Equity Index (IGC) to the extent they meet certain additional membership
eligibility criteria, as set forth herein.

Novo Mercado Corporate Governance Equity Index (IGC-NM): The New Market Index congregates all
listed companies in the New Market portion of the BOVESPA known as Novo Mercado, where
issuers undertake to adopt higher-level corporate governance standards. Currently it is made up
of 123 securities (Investing.com, 2017)

Special Corporate Governance Stock Index (IGCX): The IGC is designed to measure average stock
performance tracking changes in the prices of stocks listed for trading on the special corporate
governance segments of BM&FBOVESPA known as Level 1, Level 2 and Novo Mercado which
includes 184 securities (Investing.com, 2017).

Sector Indices
BM&FBOVESPA Basic Materials Index (IMAT): Basic Materials Index (representing raw materials,
pulp & paper, packaging, steel, etc.) to gauge average stock performance of 14 securities specific
to the basic materials sector (BM&FBOVESPA, 2014).
BM&FBOVESPA Consumer Stock Index (ICON): It is designed to measure 48 securities average
stock performance tracking changes in the prices of the more actively traded and better
representative cyclical and non-cyclical consumer stocks (Investing.com, 2017).

BM&FBOVESPA Electric Utilities Index (IEE): The BM&FBOVESPA IEE is designed to

measure average performance tracking changes in the prices of the more actively traded and
better representative electricity sector stocks (BM&FBOVESPA, 2014). This index currently
includes 17 securities (Investing.com, 2017).

BM&FBOVESPA Financials Index (IFNC): Represents Financial Index (comprising banks,

credit card processors, insurance companies, etc.), so as to gauge average stock performance
specific to the financial sector, particularly as encompassing banking and diversified financial
services, investment intermediation, and insurance and private pension subsector stocks. This
index currently includes 14 securities (Investing.com, 2017).

BM&FBOVESPA Industrials Index (INDX): Designed to track changes in the prices of the more
actively traded and better representative industrials stocks of 49 constituents, so as to gauge
average stock performance specific to the industrials sector.

BM&FBOVESPA Public Utilities Index (UTIL): Represents utilities stocks, so as to gauge

average stock performance specific to the public utilities sector (electric utilities, water supply
and sanitation utilities, gas utilities). This index currently includes 20 securities (Investing.com,
2017).

BM&FBOVESPA Real Estate Index (IMOB): Represents real estate sector stocks, so as to gauge
average stock performance of 15 securities specific to the real estate sector, as encompassing
stocks representative of the real estate intermediation and wider real estate exploitation
subsectors, as well as the civil engineering and construction industry.

Segment Indices
Mid-Large Cap Index (MLCX): Designed to measure average stock performance tracking price
movements within a universe of large and medium capitalization stocks. The Mid-large Cap
Index shows the performance of 58 securities that are most relevant companies at the exchange,
responding for at least 85% its total market value.
Small Cap Index (SMLL): The Small Cap Index comprises relevant companies who don't apply
for the MLCX listing, i.e., heavily traded companies which does not fill the 85% market share
criteria. Designed to measure average stock performance tracking price movements within a
universe of small capitalization stocks, this index currently includes 63 securities

Dividend Index (IDIV): Represents 31 companies with the highest dividend yield values in the
market, along with strong trading session participation. Dividend yields refer to income
distributions in the form of both dividends and interest on shareholders equity.

Valor BM&FBOVESPA Index (IVBX 2): The IVBX 2 is designed to measure average
performance tracking changes in the prices of 50 stocks selected by liquidity (as measured in
descending order by individual Tradability Ratio over a period comprising the three previous
portfolio cycles), except that stocks ranking in the top ten positions by liquidity (Tradability
Ratio) or market capitalization are not included in the index universe, therefore not to be
classified as blue chips. Nevertheless, most of its members are highly relevant companies,
needing to comply with high traded volume and market capitalization (BM&FBOVESPA, 2014).

SPDJI/BVMF Index
Commodity Index: The Dow Jones/BM&F Commodity Index is designed to be a broad measure
of the Brazilian commodity futures market. The index emphasizes diversification through a
simple, straightforward, equal-weighted approach.

Fixed Income Indices: S&P/BM&F Inflation-Linked NTN-B Index - tracks the performance of
the most liquid real-denominated inflation-linked series B securities publicly issued by the
Brazilian government for the domestic market.

Future Indices: S&P/BM&F BRL-USD Futures Index - The S&P/BM&F Futures Index is
designed to measure the performance of a hypothetical portfolio holding one currency futures
contract that rolls monthly.

BOVESPA Non-State Owned Enterprises Index: The S&P/BOVESPA Non-State Owned

Enterprises Index seeks to track the performance of equities listed on B3 that are not controlled,
directly or indirectly, by public entities such as labor unions, states, the Federal District, or
municipalities.

Sustainability Indices
Carbon Efficient Index (ICO2): This index comprises the shares of 27 companies participating in
the IBrX-50 index that have agreed to join this initiative, by adopting transparent practices with
respect to their greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). The index takes into consideration in its
composition, not only the free float of stocks of participating companies, but also the efficiency
levels of GHG emissions of these same companies.

Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE): The ISE is a tool for comparative analysis of the
performance of 38 companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA from the standpoint of corporate
sustainability, based on economic efficiency, environmental equilibrium, social justice and
corporate governance. It also enhances public understanding of companies and groups committed
to sustainability, differentiating them in terms of quality, level of commitment to sustainable
development, equity, transparency and accountability, and the nature of their products, as well as
business performance in the economic, financial, social, environmental and climate change
dimensions.

Other Indices
BM&FBOVESPA Real Estate Fund Index (IFIX): The BM&FBOVESPA IFIX is designed to
measure the average performance of 71exchange-traded and OTC-traded real estate funds
admitted for trading on the stock exchange or organized over-the-counter market operated by
BM&FBOVESPA.

Unsponsored BDR Index-GLOBAL (BDRX): Unsponsored Brazilian Depositary Receipt Index

reflects the valuation of those equities which are not freely distributed at the stock exchange but
limited to qualified investors, as defined by Brazilian regulations. This index includes 118
securities (Investing.com, 2017).

Regulators

The Brazilian financial system, including the capital markets, is overseen by the following:
National Monetary Council (Conselho Monetario Nacional) (CMN): Responsible for setting
monetary and credit policies. The CMN approves regulations proposed by the Central Bank (BC)
and the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) regarding financial institutions operations.
It also oversees financial institutions and other entities regulated by the Central Bank and the
CVM (Pedras & Venceslau, 2010).

Brazilian Central Bank (Banco Central do Brasil) (BACEN/BC): The monetary authority of the
country responsible for the implementation of monetary and credit policies enacted by the CMN.
By regulating banks and establishing norms for the financial system Central Bank (BC) directly
influences the amount of resources each financial institution can invest (Pedras & Venceslau,
2010).

Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (Comisso de Valores Mobilirios) (CVM): The
federal agency responsible for monitoring the activities and services performed in the capital
markets. For example: Investment funds, where most domestic savings are invested, are
regulated by the CVM, which determines the different types of funds and ceilings for the assets
in which each can invest its resources (Pedras & Venceslau, 2010).
The National Private Insurance Council (CNSP) and the Complementary Social Security
Management Council (CGPC), which set general guidelines for the regulatory agencies and
evaluate/approve the standards they establish. While the Complementary Social Security
Secretariat (SPC) regulates the closed complementary social security entities (pension funds).
The Private Insurance Superintendence (SUSEP) regulates insurance companies, open social
security entities (private) and capitalization companies. The Secretariat for Social Security
Policies (SPS) oversees actions related to both the General Social Security Regime and the one
for civil servants at the Federal, state, Federal District and municipal levels. The Re-insurance
Institute of Brazil (IRB) is responsible for standards in this area, and the Federal Revenue
Secretariat (SRF), although not a regulatory agency of the financial system, issues tax rules that
influence the decisions of economic agents in the financial market (Pedras & Venceslau, 2010).

There are also self-regulatory authorities that contribute to a stable and more confident
environment for trading activities in the capital markets, which are the:

BM&FBOVESPA: The main equity market in Brazil.

BM&FBOVESPA Market Supervision, responsible for supervising the transactions carried out
on the BM&FBOVESPA and ensuring their compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.

ANBIMA: It is responsible overseeing the capital markets intermediaries' financial and ancillary
institutions and self-regulate their products, activities and best practices (Brazilian Financial and
Capital Markets Association (ANBIMA), 2016).

Fahadul Islam Antu

ID: 13204021

Evolution of Fiscal and Monetary policy in the Brazilian Academy in

the years 2015 and 2016

According to the article Fiscal Discipline Critical to Restoring Growth in Brazil, by Troy
Matheson, Brazil is said to be exiting from a deep depression. The international monetary fund
focuses on Brazil about the fact that growth is projected to resume the steady economic standard,
starting from November 15, 2016. Evidently the IMF has stated that long-term fiscal
sustainability should be restored. Brazil had a new president elected in the year 2015, therefore
while there were signs that the recession was at its end, Brazils economic prospects and future
were hinged on the new governments ability to implement structural reforms to restore the fiscal
policy of the economy.

The IMF annual report stated that Latin America had suffered one of the deepest recessions,
which is why the economy fell drastically in a very short period of time. This recession occurred
in the beginning of 2015, when the unemployment rate had doubled to more that 11 percent,
which meant 2.7 million jobs were lost. Resulting it to a gradual recovery expected by the
government. Eventually when the economy was starting to grow in the second half of 2016,
political uncertainty among the union and the government started to diminish, and the other
economic shocks ran their course. This led IMF to project an output growth of 3.3 percent in
2016 and 0.5 percent in 2017, which meant positive signs were in sight. However, the IMF also
projected that risks showed a potential to dominate the outlook of the economy. They found out
that the key domestic risk will be if the new government fails to deliver on its fiscal
consolidation strategy and provide a lasting boost to confidence. Other factors such as extended
period of slower growth in advanced and emerging economies, or declines in exports commodity
prices, and tighter financial conditions, were considered as external risks.

The new government focuses to control fiscal spending growth by imposing a cap on spending in
real terms and reforming the social security system. The government also tried to limit spending
by implementing other measures like improving the allocation of public funds, ending revenue
earmarking and containing payroll growth. Expenditure control at the regional level should be a
priority for Brazil as stated by the reporters in IMF. In economic perspective, spending caps
usually takes several years to stabilize after which it becomes possible to reduce public debt by
the government. Therefore, given the risks associated with such a prolonged period of fiscal
adjustment, the IMF will need to call for more measures to speed up fiscal consolidation and for
greater results, to boost potential output growth over the medium term. These were the points
that were summarized by the IMF:

Priorities for boosting potential growth:

 Make the infrastructure concessions program more attractive to boost investment and
competitiveness.

Reduce the cost of doing business by simplifying the tax code.

Reduce tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, revising domestic content requirements, and
pursuing free-trade negotiations.

Improve the allocation of savings by reviewing credit earmarking rules and other distortions.

Facilitate productive employment and reduce incentives for informality to promote job
creation, investment, and growth.

While the Brazilian banking system and the government kept trying to rectify its fiscal policy,
inflation has been above the central banks target for a longer period of time. Given the
uncertainty about the output gap and the pricing cap, the IMF found it hard to maintain current
monetary policy. They argued that current monetary policy settings would depend on movements
on exchange rates. Hence, the IMF found it appropriate to welcome the governments intention
to strengthen the inflation targeting framework by enhancing the independence of the central
bank and improving central bank communication. The IMF said that those steps will help boost
institutional credibility. The annual report of the IMF also stated that the use of exchange rate
flexibility should be used as the first line of defense against shocks. Other measures the IMF
mentioned were, interventions in foreign exchange markets should remain limited to periodic
occurrences of disorderly market conditions.

On 20th January, the Central Banks Monetary Policy Committee sat a meeting and decided to
leave a mark on interest rates so that it remains unchanged, which was 14.25%. Market analysis
was torn over the confusion if the Central Bank would hike or hold rates. The Bank decided to
remain consistent with its assessment of the current balance of risks and uncertainties.
Brazilian Monetary Policy Chart

Anupoma Biswas

ID: 14104076

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