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Updatedon ###
CustomixedGeometricriskpremiumestimator
Whatisyourriskfreerate? LT Estimatesofriskpremiumsfrom1928,ov
Enteryourstartingyear 1929 areprovidedatthebottomofthistable.
Valueofstocksinstartingyear: 143.8111552
ValueofT.Billsinstartingyear: 103.08
ValueofT.bondsinstartingyear: 100.8354709
Estimateofriskpremiumbasedonyourinputs: 4.22%
AnnualReturnsonInvestmentsin CompoundedValueof$100
Year S&P 500 3-month T.Bill 10-year T. Bond Stocks T.Bills
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% $ 143.81 $ 103.08
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% $ 131.88 $ 106.34
1930 ### 4.55% 4.54% $ 98.75 $ 111.18
1931 ### 2.31% -2.56% $ 55.46 $ 113.74
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% $ 50.66 $ 114.96
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% $ 75.99 $ 116.06
1934 -1.19% 0.32% 7.96% $ 75.09 $ 116.44
1935 46.74% 0.18% 4.47% $ 110.18 $ 116.64
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% $ 145.38 $ 116.84
1937 ### 0.30% 1.38% $ 94.00 $ 117.19
1938 29.28% 0.08% 4.21% $ 121.53 $ 117.29
1939 -1.10% 0.04% 4.41% $ 120.20 $ 117.33
1940 ### 0.03% 5.40% $ 107.37 $ 117.36
1941 ### 0.08% -2.02% $ 93.66 $ 117.46
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% $ 111.61 $ 117.85
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% $ 139.59 $ 118.30
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% $ 166.15 $ 118.75
1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% $ 225.67 $ 119.20
1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% $ 206.65 $ 119.65
1947 5.20% 0.57% 0.92% $ 217.39 $ 120.33
1948 5.70% 1.02% 1.95% $ 229.79 $ 121.56
1949 18.30% 1.10% 4.66% $ 271.85 $ 122.90
1950 30.81% 1.17% 0.43% $ 355.60 $ 124.34
1951 23.68% 1.48% -0.30% $ 439.80 $ 126.18
1952 18.15% 1.67% 2.27% $ 519.62 $ 128.29
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14% $ 513.35 $ 130.72
1954 52.56% 0.96% 3.29% $ 783.18 $ 131.98
1955 32.60% 1.66% -1.34% $ 1,038.47 $ 134.17
1956 7.44% 2.56% -2.26% $ 1,115.73 $ 137.60
1957 ### 3.23% 6.80% $ 999.05 $ 142.04
1958 43.72% 1.78% -2.10% $ 1,435.84 $ 144.57
1959 12.06% 3.26% -2.65% $ 1,608.95 $ 149.27
Page 1
Returns by year
Page 2
Returns by year
Page 3
Returns by year
matesofriskpremiumsfrom1928,overthelast40yearsandoverthelast10years
providedatthebottomofthistable.
ndedValueof$100
T.Bonds Stocks - Bills Stocks - Bonds Historical risk premium
$ 100.84 40.73% 42.98%
$ 105.07 -11.46% -12.50%
$ 109.85 -29.67% -29.66%
$ 107.03 -46.15% -41.28%
$ 116.44 -9.71% -17.43%
$ 118.60 49.02% 48.13%
$ 128.05 -1.51% -9.15%
$ 133.78 46.57% 42.27%
$ 140.49 31.77% 26.93%
$ 142.43 -35.64% -36.72%
$ 148.43 29.21% 25.07%
$ 154.98 -1.14% -5.51%
$ 163.35 -10.70% -16.08%
$ 160.04 -12.85% -10.75%
$ 163.72 18.84% 16.88%
$ 167.79 24.68% 22.57%
$ 172.12 18.65% 16.45%
$ 178.67 35.44% 32.02%
$ 184.26 -8.81% -11.56%
$ 185.95 4.63% 4.28%
$ 189.58 4.68% 3.75%
$ 198.42 17.20% 13.64%
$ 199.27 29.63% 30.38%
$ 198.68 22.20% 23.97%
$ 203.19 16.48% 15.88%
$ 211.61 -3.10% -5.35%
$ 218.57 51.60% 49.27%
$ 215.65 30.94% 33.93%
$ 210.79 4.88% 9.70%
$ 225.11 -13.69% -17.25%
$ 220.39 41.94% 45.82%
$ 214.56 8.80% 14.70%
Page 4
Returns by year
Page 5
Returns by year
StocksT.Bonds
4.62%
3.33%
3.07%
Page 6
S&P 500 & Raw Data
Page 7
S&P 500 & Raw Data
Page 8
S&P 500 & Raw Data
Used estimated dividend for 2012, based upon Nov 2012 projected dividend yield from S&P
Page 9
T. Bill rates
Page 10
T. Bill rates
Page 11
T. Bill rates
Mar 0.11
Apr 0.10
May 0.11
June 0.12
july 0.12
Aug 0.13
Sept 0.10
Oct 0.09
Nov 0.28
Dec 0.33
Jan-42 0.27
Feb 0.25
Mar 0.25
Apr 0.32
May 0.37
June 0.37
july 0.38
Aug 0.38
Sept 0.38
Oct 0.38
Nov 0.38
Dec 0.38
Jan-43 0.38
Feb 0.38
Mar 0.38
Apr 0.38
May 0.38
June 0.38
july 0.38
Aug 0.38
Sept 0.38
Oct 0.38
Nov 0.38
Dec 0.38
Jan-44 0.38
Feb 0.38
Mar 0.38
Apr 0.38
May 0.38
June 0.38
july 0.38
Aug 0.38
Sept 0.38
Oct 0.38
Nov 0.38
Dec 0.38
Jan-45 0.38
Feb 0.38
Mar 0.38
Page 12
T. Bill rates
Apr 0.38
May 0.38
June 0.38
july 0.38
Aug 0.38
Sept 0.38
Oct 0.38
Nov 0.38
Dec 0.38
Jan-46 0.38
Feb 0.38
Mar 0.38
Apr 0.38
May 0.38
June 0.38
july 0.38
Aug 0.38
Sept 0.38
Oct 0.38
Nov 0.38
Dec 0.38
Jan-47 0.38
Feb 0.38
Mar 0.38
Apr 0.38
May 0.38
June 0.38
july 0.66
Aug 0.75
Sept 0.80
Oct 0.85
Nov 0.92
Dec 0.95
Jan-48 0.97
Feb 1.00
Mar 1.00
Apr 1.00
May 1.00
June 1.00
july 1.00
Aug 1.06
Sept 1.09
Oct 1.12
Nov 1.14
Dec 1.16
Jan-49 1.17
Feb 1.17
Mar 1.17
Apr 1.17
Page 13
T. Bill rates
May 1.17
June 1.17
july 1.02
Aug 1.04
Sept 1.07
Oct 1.05
Nov 1.08
Dec 1.10
Jan-50 1.07
Feb 1.12
Mar 1.12
Apr 1.15
May 1.16
June 1.15
july 1.16
Aug 1.20
Sept 1.30
Oct 1.31
Nov 1.36
Dec 1.34
Jan-51 1.34
Feb 1.36
Mar 1.40
Apr 1.47
May 1.55
June 1.45
july 1.56
Aug 1.62
Sept 1.63
Oct 1.54
Nov 1.56
Dec 1.73
Jan-52 1.57
Feb 1.54
Mar 1.59
Apr 1.57
May 1.67
June 1.70
july 1.81
Aug 1.83
Sept 1.71
Oct 1.74
Nov 1.85
Dec 2.09
Jan-53 1.96
Feb 1.97
Mar 2.01
Apr 2.19
May 2.16
Page 14
T. Bill rates
June 2.11
july 2.04
Aug 2.04
Sept 1.79
Oct 1.38
Nov 1.44
Dec 1.60
Jan-54 1.18
Feb 0.97
Mar 1.03
Apr 0.97
May 0.76
June 0.64
july 0.72
Aug 0.92
Sept 1.01
Oct 0.98
Nov 0.93
Dec 1.15
Jan-55 1.22
Feb 1.17
Mar 1.28
Apr 1.59
May 1.45
June 1.41
july 1.60
Aug 1.90
Sept 2.07
Oct 2.23
Nov 2.24
Dec 2.54
Jan-56 2.41
Feb 2.32
Mar 2.25
Apr 2.60
May 2.61
June 2.49
july 2.31
Aug 2.60
Sept 2.84
Oct 2.90
Nov 2.99
Dec 3.21
Jan-57 3.11
Feb 3.10
Mar 3.08
Apr 3.07
May 3.06
June 3.29
Page 15
T. Bill rates
july 3.16
Aug 3.37
Sept 3.53
Oct 3.58
Nov 3.31
Dec 3.04
Jan-58 2.44
Feb 1.53
Mar 1.30
Apr 1.13
May 0.91
June 0.83
july 0.91
Aug 1.69
Sept 2.44
Oct 2.63
Nov 2.67
Dec 2.77
Jan-59 2.82
Feb 2.70
Mar 2.80
Apr 2.95
May 2.84
June 3.21
july 3.20
Aug 3.38
Sept 4.04
Oct 4.05
Nov 4.15
Dec 4.49
Jan-60 4.35
Feb 3.96
Mar 3.31
Apr 3.23
May 3.29
June 2.46
july 2.30
Aug 2.30
Sept 2.48
Oct 2.30
Nov 2.37
Dec 2.25
Jan-61 2.24
Feb 2.42
Mar 2.39
Apr 2.29
May 2.29
June 2.33
july 2.24
Page 16
T. Bill rates
Aug 2.39
Sept 2.28
Oct 2.30
Nov 2.48
Dec 2.60
Jan-62 2.72
Feb 2.73
Mar 2.72
Apr 2.73
May 2.69
June 2.73
july 2.92
Aug 2.82
Sept 2.78
Oct 2.74
Nov 2.83
Dec 2.87
Jan-63 2.91
Feb 2.92
Mar 2.89
Apr 2.90
May 2.93
June 2.99
july 3.18
Aug 3.32
Sept 3.38
Oct 3.45
Nov 3.52
Dec 3.52
Jan-64 3.52
Feb 3.53
Mar 3.54
Apr 3.47
May 3.48
June 3.48
july 3.46
Aug 3.50
Sept 3.53
Oct 3.57
Nov 3.64
Dec 3.84
Jan-65 3.81
Feb 3.93
Mar 3.93
Apr 3.93
May 3.89
June 3.80
july 3.84
Aug 3.84
Page 17
T. Bill rates
Sept 3.92
Oct 4.03
Nov 4.09
Dec 4.38
Jan-66 4.59
Feb 4.65
Mar 4.59
Apr 4.62
May 4.64
June 4.50
july 4.80
Aug 4.96
Sept 5.37
Oct 5.35
Nov 5.32
Dec 4.96
Jan-67 4.72
Feb 4.56
Mar 4.26
Apr 3.84
May 3.60
June 3.54
july 4.21
Aug 4.27
Sept 4.42
Oct 4.56
Nov 4.73
Dec 4.97
Jan-68 5.00
Feb 4.98
Mar 5.17
Apr 5.38
May 5.66
June 5.52
july 5.31
Aug 5.09
Sept 5.19
Oct 5.35
Nov 5.45
Dec 5.96
Jan-69 6.14
Feb 6.12
Mar 6.02
Apr 6.11
May 6.04
June 6.44
july 7.00
Aug 6.98
Sept 7.09
Page 18
T. Bill rates
Oct 7.00
Nov 7.24
Dec 7.82
Jan-70 7.87
Feb 7.13
Mar 6.63
Apr 6.51
May 6.84
June 6.68
july 6.45
Aug 6.41
Sept 6.12
Oct 5.91
Nov 5.28
Dec 4.87
Jan-71 4.44
Feb 3.70
Mar 3.38
Apr 3.86
May 4.14
June 4.75
july 5.40
Aug 4.94
Sept 4.69
Oct 4.46
Nov 4.22
Dec 4.01
Jan-72 3.38
Feb 3.20
Mar 3.73
Apr 3.71
May 3.69
June 3.91
july 3.98
Aug 4.02
Sept 4.66
Oct 4.74
Nov 4.78
Dec 5.07
Jan-73 5.41
Feb 5.60
Mar 6.09
Apr 6.26
May 6.36
June 7.19
july 8.01
Aug 8.67
Sept 8.29
Oct 7.22
Page 19
T. Bill rates
Nov 7.83
Dec 7.45
Jan-74 7.77
Feb 7.12
Mar 7.96
Apr 8.33
May 8.23
June 7.90
july 7.55
Aug 8.96
Sept 8.06
Oct 7.46
Nov 7.47
Dec 7.15
Jan-75 6.26
Feb 5.50
Mar 5.49
Apr 5.61
May 5.23
June 5.34
july 6.13
Aug 6.44
Sept 6.42
Oct 5.96
Nov 5.48
Dec 5.44
Jan-76 4.87
Feb 4.88
Mar 5.00
Apr 4.86
May 5.20
June 5.41
july 5.23
Aug 5.14
Sept 5.08
Oct 4.92
Nov 4.75
Dec 4.35
Jan-77 4.62
Feb 4.67
Mar 4.60
Apr 4.54
May 4.96
June 5.02
july 5.19
Aug 5.49
Sept 5.81
Oct 6.16
Nov 6.10
Page 20
T. Bill rates
Dec 6.07
Jan-78 6.44
Feb 6.45
Mar 6.29
Apr 6.29
May 6.41
June 6.73
july 7.01
Aug 7.08
Sept 7.85
Oct 7.99
Nov 8.64
Dec 9.08
Jan-79 9.35
Feb 9.32
Mar 9.48
Apr 9.46
May 9.61
June 9.06
july 9.24
Aug 9.52
Sept 10.26
Oct 11.70
Nov 11.79
Dec 12.04
Jan-80 12.00
Feb 12.86
Mar 15.20
Apr 13.20
May 8.58
June 7.07
july 8.06
Aug 9.13
Sept 10.27
Oct 11.62
Nov 13.73
Dec 15.49
Jan-81 15.02
Feb 14.79
Mar 13.36
Apr 13.69
May 16.30
June 14.73
july 14.95
Aug 15.51
Sept 14.70
Oct 13.54
Nov 10.86
Dec 10.85
Page 21
T. Bill rates
Jan-82 12.28
Feb 13.48
Mar 12.68
Apr 12.70
May 12.09
June 12.47
july 11.35
Aug 8.68
Sept 7.92
Oct 7.71
Nov 8.07
Dec 7.94
Jan-83 7.86
Feb 8.11
Mar 8.35
Apr 8.21
May 8.19
June 8.79
july 9.08
Aug 9.34
Sept 9.00
Oct 8.64
Nov 8.76
Dec 9.00
Jan-84 8.90
Feb 9.09
Mar 9.52
Apr 9.69
May 9.83
June 9.87
july 10.12
Aug 10.47
Sept 10.37
Oct 9.74
Nov 8.61
Dec 8.06
Jan-85 7.76
Feb 8.27
Mar 8.52
Apr 7.95
May 7.48
June 6.95
july 7.08
Aug 7.14
Sept 7.10
Oct 7.16
Nov 7.24
Dec 7.10
Jan-86 7.07
Page 22
T. Bill rates
Feb 7.06
Mar 6.56
Apr 6.06
May 6.15
June 6.21
july 5.83
Aug 5.53
Sept 5.21
Oct 5.18
Nov 5.35
Dec 5.53
Jan-87 5.43
Feb 5.59
Mar 5.59
Apr 5.64
May 5.66
June 5.67
july 5.69
Aug 6.04
Sept 6.40
Oct 6.13
Nov 5.69
Dec 5.77
Jan-88 5.81
Feb 5.66
Mar 5.70
Apr 5.91
May 6.26
June 6.46
july 6.73
Aug 7.06
Sept 7.24
Oct 7.35
Nov 7.76
Dec 8.07
Jan-89 8.27
Feb 8.53
Mar 8.82
Apr 8.65
May 8.43
June 8.15
july 7.88
Aug 7.90
Sept 7.75
Oct 7.64
Nov 7.69
Dec 7.63
Jan-90 7.64
Feb 7.74
Page 23
T. Bill rates
Mar 7.90
Apr 7.77
May 7.74
June 7.73
july 7.62
Aug 7.45
Sept 7.36
Oct 7.17
Nov 7.06
Dec 6.74
Jan-91 6.22
Feb 5.94
Mar 5.91
Apr 5.65
May 5.46
June 5.57
july 5.58
Aug 5.33
Sept 5.22
Oct 4.99
Nov 4.56
Dec 4.07
Jan-92 3.80
Feb 3.84
Mar 4.04
Apr 3.75
May 3.63
June 3.66
july 3.21
Aug 3.13
Sept 2.91
Oct 2.86
Nov 3.13
Dec 3.22
Jan-93 3.00
Feb 2.93
Mar 2.95
Apr 2.87
May 2.96
June 3.07
july 3.04
Aug 3.02
Sept 2.95
Oct 3.02
Nov 3.10
Dec 3.06
Jan-94 2.98
Feb 3.25
Mar 3.50
Page 24
T. Bill rates
Apr 3.68
May 4.14
June 4.14
july 4.33
Aug 4.48
Sept 4.62
Oct 4.95
Nov 5.29
Dec 5.60
Jan-95 5.71
Feb 5.77
Mar 5.73
Apr 5.65
May 5.67
June 5.47
july 5.42
Aug 5.40
Sept 5.28
Oct 5.28
Nov 5.36
Dec 5.14 5.49
Jan-96 5.00
Feb 4.83
Mar 4.96
Apr 4.95
May 5.02
June 5.09
july 5.15
Aug 5.05
Sept 5.09
Oct 4.99
Nov 5.03
Dec 4.91 5.01
Jan-97 5.03
Feb 5.01
Mar 5.14
Apr 5.16
May 5.05
June 4.93
july 5.05
Aug 5.14
Sept 4.95
Oct 4.97
Nov 5.14
Dec 5.16 5.06
Jan-98 5.04
Feb 5.09
Mar 5.03
Apr 4.95
Page 25
T. Bill rates
May 5.00
June 4.98
july 4.96
Aug 4.90
Sept 4.61
Oct 3.96
Nov 4.41
Dec 4.39 4.78
Jan-99 4.34
Feb 4.44
Mar 4.44
Apr 4.29
May 4.50
June 4.57
july 4.55
Aug 4.72
Sept 4.68
Oct 4.86
Nov 5.07
Dec 5.20 4.64
Jan-00 5.32
Feb 5.55
Mar 5.69
Apr 5.66
May 5.79
June 5.69
july 5.96
Aug 6.09
Sept 6.00
Oct 6.11
Nov 6.17
Dec 5.77 5.82
Jan-01 5.15
Feb 4.88
Mar 4.42
Apr 3.87
May 3.62
June 3.49
july 3.51
Aug 3.36
Sept 2.64
Oct 2.16
Nov 1.87
Dec 1.69 3.39
Jan-02 1.65
Feb 1.73
Mar 1.79
Apr 1.72
May 1.73
Page 26
T. Bill rates
June 1.70
july 1.68
Aug 1.62
Sept 1.63
Oct 1.58
Nov 1.23
Dec 1.19 1.60
Jan-03 1.17
Feb 1.17
Mar 1.13
Apr 1.13
May 1.07
June 0.92
july 0.90
Aug 0.95
Sept 0.94
Oct 0.92
Nov 0.93
Dec 0.90 1.01
Jan-04 0.88
Feb 0.93
Mar 0.94
Apr 0.94
May 1.02
June 1.27
july 1.33
Aug 1.48
Sept 1.65
Oct 1.76
Nov 2.07
Dec 2.19 1.37
Jan-05 2.33
Feb 2.54
Mar 2.74
Apr 2.78
May 2.84
June 2.97
july 3.22
Aug 3.44
Sept 3.42
Oct 3.71
Nov 3.88
Dec 3.89 3.15
Jan-06 4.24
Feb 4.43
Mar 4.51
Apr 4.60
May 4.72
June 4.79
Page 27
T. Bill rates
july 4.95
Aug 4.96
Sept 4.81
Oct 4.92
Nov 4.94
Dec 4.85 4.73
Jan-07 4.98
Feb 5.03
Mar 4.94
Apr 4.87
May 4.73
June 4.61
july 4.82
Aug 4.20
Sept 3.89
Oct 3.90
Nov 3.27
Dec 3.00 4.35
Jan-08 2.75
Feb 2.12
Mar 1.26
Apr 1.29
May 1.73
June 1.86
july 1.63
Aug 1.72
Sept 1.13
Oct 0.67
Nov 0.19
Dec 0.03 1.37
January 09 0.13
Feb 0.30
Mar 0.21
Apr 0.16
May 0.18
June 0.18
July 0.18
Aug 0.17
Sept 0.12
Oct 0.07
Nov 0.05
Dec 0.14 0.16
Page 28
T. Bond return
Page 29
T. Bond return
Page 30
T. Bond return
Page 31
T. Bond return
thepromisedcouponatthestartoftheyearandthepricechangeduetointerestratechanges.
theendof1927)Pricechangeonabondwithacouponrateof3.17%,whentheinterestrategoesto3.45%.
Page 32
Summary for ppt
Page 33
Summary for ppt
- T. Bonds
Page 34