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Periode Demand Naive MA3 MA4 WMA3 WMA 4 DMA (n=3; m=1)

1996 25 s' s'' a


1997 30 25
1998 27 30
1999 29 27 27.33333 27.5 27.33333
2000 30 29 28.66667 27.75 28.6 28.66667
2001 35 30 28.66667 29 29.1 28.66667
2002 38 35 31.33333 30.25 32.3 31.33333 28.22222 34.44444
2003 45 38 34.33333 33 35.5 34.33333 29.55556 39.11111
2004 23 45 39.33333 37 40.9 39.33333 31.44444 47.22222
2005 26 23 35.33333 35.25 32.6 35.33333 35 35.66667
2006 26 31.33333 33 28.9 31.33333 36.33333 26.33333

Chart Title
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Dema nd Col umn L
MA (n=3; m=1)
b DMA

3.111111
4.777778 37.55556
7.888889 43.88889
0.333333 55.11111
-5 36

12
DMA (n=3;
periode demand naive MA3 MA4 WMA3 WMA 5
s'
1996 39,333.00
1997 37,755.70 39,333.00
1998 24,683.20 37,755.70
1999 20,322.20 24,683.20 33,923.97 31,534.91 33,923.97
2000 27,495.30 20,322.20 27,587.03 30,523.53 25,117.20 27,587.03
2001 25,490.30 27,495.30 24,166.90 27,564.10 24,780.95 27,862.44 24,166.90
2002 24,763.10 25,490.30 24,435.93 24,497.75 25,058.18 26,063.41 24,435.93
2003 24,939.80 24,763.10 25,916.23 24,517.73 25,527.70 24,817.22 25,916.23
2004 34,792.50 24,939.80 25,064.40 25,672.13 24,996.89 24,927.29 25,064.40
2005 40,243.20 34,792.50 28,165.13 27,496.43 29,830.81 28,198.40 28,165.13
2006 42,102.60 40,243.20 33,325.17 31,184.65 35,547.31 32,022.54 33,325.17
2007 52,540.60 42,102.60 39,046.10 35,519.53 40,082.76 35,867.36 39,046.10
2008 98,644.40 52,540.60 44,962.13 42,419.73 46,949.72 42,049.33 44,962.13
2009 77,848.50 98,644.40 64,429.20 58,382.70 73,504.90 60,664.72 64,429.20
2010 108,250.60 77,848.50 76,344.50 67,784.03 79,025.69 68,863.48 76,344.50
2011 136,734.10 108,250.60 94,914.50 84,321.03 97,208.73 83,757.54 94,914.50
2012 149,125.30 136,734.10 107,611.07 105,369.40 116,411.93 103,703.30 107,611.07
2013 102,321.60 149,125.30 131,370.00 117,989.63 137,233.00 122,112.95 131,370.00
2014 150,232.40 102,321.60 129,393.67 124,107.90 123,245.21 119,347.07 129,393.67
2015 112,312.30 150,232.40 133,893.10 134,603.35 135,637.74 131,810.36 133,893.10
2016 123,432.80 112,312.30 121,622.10 128,497.90 121,690.19 127,758.32 121,622.10
2017 123,432.80 128,659.17 122,074.78 125,456.57 125,415.17 128,659.17

300,000.00

250,000.00

200,000.00

150,000.00 Column L
Column B

100,000.00

50,000.00

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122
DMA (n=3; m=1)
DMA
s'' a b

28,559.30 20,312.57 (4,123.37)


25,396.62 26,435.84 519.61 16,189.20
24,839.69 25,289.11 224.71 26,955.46
25,138.86 31,191.41 3,026.28 25,513.82
26,381.92 40,268.41 6,943.24 34,217.69
28,851.57 49,240.63 10,194.53 47,211.66
33,512.13 56,412.13 11,450.00 59,435.17
39,111.13 89,747.27 25,318.07 67,862.13
49,479.14 103,209.86 26,865.36 115,065.33
61,911.94 127,917.06 33,002.56 130,075.21
78,562.73 136,659.40 29,048.33 160,919.61
92,956.69 169,783.31 38,413.31 165,707.73
111,298.52 147,488.81 18,095.14 208,196.62
122,791.58 144,994.62 11,101.52 165,583.96
131,552.26 111,691.94 (9,930.16) 156,096.14
128,302.96 129,015.38 356.21 101,761.79

Column L
Column B

22
minggu ke permintaan Naive MA4 WMA 3 DMA (N;4 M;1)
S' S'' a
1 153
2 137 153
3 112 137
4 150 112 134
5 130 150 133 138 403.1 138
6 141 130 130.6667 132.25 382.6 132.25
7 163 141 140.3333 133.25 334 133.25
8 125 163 144.6667 146 409.5 146
9 121 125 143 139.75 383.8 139.75 137.375 142.125
10 142 121 136.3333 137.5 393.4 137.5 137.8125 137.1875
11 126 142 129.3333 137.75 424 137.75 139.125 136.375
12 165 126 129.6667 128.5 357.3 128.5 140.25 116.75
13 157 165 144.3333 138.5 347.6 138.5 135.875 141.125
14 163 157 149.3333 147.5 404.3 147.5 135.5625 159.4375
15 159 163 161.6667 152.75 380 152.75 138.0625 167.4375
16 155 159 159.6667 161 458.6 161 141.8125 180.1875
17 175 155 159 158.5 442.4 158.5 149.9375 167.0625
18 146 175 163 163 451.2 163 154.9375 171.0625
19 155 146 158.6667 158.75 452 158.75 158.8125 158.6875
20 145 155 158.6667 157.75 435.5 157.75 160.3125 155.1875
21 190 145 148.6667 155.25 471.3 155.25 159.5 151
22 166 190 163.3333 159 411 159 158.6875 159.3125
23 193 166 167 164 448.5 164 157.6875 170.3125
24 182 193 183 173.5 430 173.5 159 188
25 198 182 180.3333 182.75 526.3 182.75 162.9375 202.5625
26 152 198 191 184.75 480.9 184.75 169.8125 199.6875
27 189 152 177.3333 181.25 539.6 181.25 176.25 186.25
28 199 189 179.6667 180.25 499.4 180.25 180.5625 179.9375
29 167 199 180 184.5 536.1 184.5 182.25 186.75
30 181 167 185 176.75 460.2 176.75 182.6875 170.8125
31 173 181 182.3333 184 521.2 184 180.6875 187.3125
32 180 173 173.6667 180 538.6 180 181.375 178.625
33 180 180 178 175.25 474.8 175.25 181.3125 169.1875
34 195 180 177.6667 178.5 503.9 178.5 179 178
35 197 195 185 182 490 182 179.4375 184.5625
36 195 197 190.6667 188 511.5 188 178.9375 197.0625
37 173 195 195.6667 191.75 517 191.75 180.9375 202.5625
38 231 173 188.3333 190 546.6 190 185.0625 194.9375
39 183 231 199.6667 199 539 199 187.9375 210.0625
40 193 183 195.6667 195.5 557.4 195.5 192.1875 198.8125
41 247 193 202.3333 195 506.8 195 194.0625 195.9375
42 182 247 207.6667 213.5 613.4 213.5 194.875 232.125
43 193 182 207.3333 201.25 547.4 201.25 200.75 201.75
44 226 193 207.3333 203.75 551.1 203.75 201.3125 206.1875
45 220 226 200.3333 212 645.1 212 203.375 220.625
46 194 220 213 205.25 534.9 205.25 207.625 202.875
47 230 194 213.3333 208.25 563.8 208.25 205.5625 210.9375
48 207 230 214.6667 217.5 615 217.5 207.3125 227.6875
49 249 207 210.3333 212.75 613.2 212.75 210.75 214.75
50 230 249 228.6667 220 560.5 220 210.9375 229.0625
51 220 230 228.6667 229 646.6 229 214.625 243.375
52 208 220 233 226.5 603.7 226.5 219.8125 233.1875
53 208 219.3333 226.75 677 226.75 222.0625 231.4375
N;4 M;1) DMA
b Peramalan Pemintaan dan DMA
300

250

200

150

100

2.375
50
-0.3125 136.875
-1.375 135 0
-11.75 105 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55
2.625 143.75 permi ntaan DMA
11.9375 171.375
14.6875 182.125
19.1875 199.375
8.5625 175.625 Permintaan dan MA4
300
8.0625 179.125
-0.0625 158.625 250
-2.5625 152.625
200
-4.25 146.75
0.3125 159.625 150
6.3125 176.625
100
14.5 202.5
19.8125 222.375 50
14.9375 214.625
0
5 191.25 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55
-0.3125 179.625
2.25 189 permi ntaa n MA4

-5.9375 164.875
3.3125 190.625
-1.375 177.25
permintaan
-6.0625 163.125
-0.5 177.5
2.5625 187.125
9.0625 206.125
10.8125 213.375
4.9375 199.875
11.0625 221.125
3.3125 202.125
0.9375 196.875 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
18.625 250.75 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
0.5 202.25 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
2.4375 208.625 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56
8.625 229.25
-2.375 200.5
DAFTAR PERMINTAAN MINGGUAN SELAMA SATU TAHUN
1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15
2.6875 213.625 DAFTAR PERMINTAAN MINGGUAN SELAMA SATU TAHUN
10.1875 237.875 1 2 3 4 5
2 216.75 6 7 8 9 10
9.0625 238.125 11 12 13 14 15
14.375 257.75 16 17 18 19 20
6.6875 239.875 21 22 23 24 25
4.6875 236.125 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35
36 37 38 39 40
41 42 43 44 45
46 47 48 49 50
51 52 53
39,333.00
37755.7
24683.2
20322.2
27495.3
25490.3
24763.1
24939.8
34792.5
40243.2
42102.6
52540.6
98644.4
77848.5
108250.6
136734.1
149125.3
102321.6
150232.4
112312.3
123432.8
SES DES ( alfa = 0,5 m= 1 )
PERIODE DEMAND KONSTAN SES 0,4 0.7 s' s" a b DES
1 36 50.63636364 36 36 36 36
2 42 50.63636364 36 36 39 37.5 40.5 1.5
3 41 50.63636364 38.4 40.2 40 38.75 41.25 1.25 42
4 39 50.63636364 38 40.76 39.5 39.125 39.875 0.375 42.5
5 45 50.63636364 37.2 39.528 42.25 40.6875 43.8125 1.5625 40.25
6 47 50.63636364 39.6 43.3584 44.625 42.65625 46.59375 1.96875 45.375
7 53 50.63636364 40.4 45.90752 48.8125 45.73438 51.89063 3.078125 48.5625
8 62 50.63636364 42.8 50.87226 55.40625 50.57031 60.24219 4.835938 54.96875
9 55 50.63636364 46.4 58.66168 55.20313 52.88672 57.51953 2.316406 65.07813
10 68 50.63636364 43.6 56.0985 61.60156 57.24414 65.95898 4.357422 59.83594
11 69 50.63636364 48.8 64.42955 65.30078 61.27246 69.3291 4.02832 70.31641
12 50.63636364 49.2 67.62887 32.65039 46.96143 18.33936 -14.311 73.35742
DES ( alfa = 0,6 m= 1 )
PERIODE DEMAND KONSTAN SES 0,4 s' s" a b
1996 39333 69,207.79 39,333.00 39,333.00 39,333.00
1997 37756 69,207.79 39,333.00 38,386.62 38,765.17 38,008.07 (567.83)
1998 24683 69,207.79 38,702.08 30,164.57 33,604.81 26,724.33 (5,160.36)
1999 20322 69,207.79 33,094.53 24,259.15 27,997.41 20,520.88 (5,607.40)
2000 27495 69,207.79 27,985.60 26,200.84 26,919.47 25,482.21 (1,077.94)
2001 25490 69,207.79 27,789.48 25,774.52 26,232.50 25,316.53 (686.97)
2002 24763 69,207.79 26,869.81 25,167.67 25,593.60 24,741.73 (638.90)
2003 24940 69,207.79 26,027.12 25,030.95 25,256.01 24,805.89 (337.59)
2004 34793 69,207.79 25,592.19 30,887.88 28,635.13 33,140.63 3,379.12
2005 40243 69,207.79 29,272.32 36,501.07 33,354.69 39,647.45 4,719.56
2006 42103 69,207.79 33,660.67 39,861.99 37,259.07 42,464.91 3,904.38
2007 52541 69,207.79 37,037.44 47,469.16 43,385.12 51,553.19 6,126.05
2008 98644 69,207.79 43,238.71 78,174.30 64,258.63 92,089.97 20,873.51
2009 77849 69,207.79 65,400.98 77,978.82 72,490.74 83,466.90 8,232.11
2010 108251 69,207.79 70,379.99 96,141.89 86,681.43 105,602.35 14,190.69
2011 136734 69,207.79 85,528.23 120,497.22 106,970.90 134,023.53 20,289.47
2012 149125 69,207.79 106,010.58 137,674.07 125,392.80 149,955.33 18,421.90
2013 102322 69,207.79 123,256.47 116,462.59 120,034.67 112,890.50 (5,358.13)
2014 150232 69,207.79 114,882.52 136,724.47 130,048.55 143,400.40 10,013.88
2015 112312 69,207.79 129,022.47 122,077.17 125,265.72 118,888.62 (4,782.83)
2016 123433 69,207.79 122,338.40 122,890.55 123,840.62 121,940.48 (1,425.11)
2017 69,207.79 122,776.16 49,156.22 79,029.98 19,282.46 (44,810.64)
DES

37,440.24
21,563.96
14,913.48
24,404.27
24,629.56
24,102.84
24,468.29
36,519.75
44,367.01
46,369.28
57,679.24
112,963.48
91,699.01
119,793.03
154,313.00
168,377.23
107,532.37
153,414.28
114,105.79
120,515.37
PERIODE DEMAND konstan ses 0,2 DES ( a= 0,2 m= 1
s' s" a b DES
1 153 177.75 153 153 153
2 137 177.75 153 149.8 152.36 147.24 -0.64
3 112 177.75 149.8 142.24 150.336 134.144 -2.024 146.6
4 150 177.75 142.24 143.792 149.0272 138.5568 -1.3088 132.12
5 130 177.75 143.792 141.0336 147.4285 134.6387 -1.59872 137.248
6 141 177.75 141.0336 141.0269 146.1482 135.9056 -1.28032 133.04
7 163 177.75 141.0269 145.4215 146.0028 144.8402 -0.14533 134.6253
8 125 177.75 145.4215 141.3372 145.0697 137.6047 -0.93313 144.6948
9 121 177.75 141.3372 137.2698 143.5097 131.0298 -1.55999 136.6716
10 142 177.75 137.2698 138.2158 142.4509 133.9807 -1.05878 129.4698
11 126 177.75 138.2158 135.7726 141.1153 130.43 -1.33566 132.9219
12 165 177.75 135.7726 141.6181 141.2158 142.0204 0.100568 129.0944
13 157 177.75 141.6181 144.6945 141.9116 147.4774 0.69573 142.121
14 163 177.75 144.6945 148.3556 143.2004 153.5108 1.288804 148.1731
15 159 177.75 148.3556 150.4845 144.6572 156.3118 1.456819 154.7996
16 155 177.75 150.4845 151.3876 146.0033 156.7719 1.346076 157.7686
17 175 177.75 151.3876 156.1101 148.0246 164.1955 2.021358 158.118
18 146 177.75 156.1101 154.0881 149.2373 158.9388 1.212684 166.2169
19 155 177.75 154.0881 154.2704 150.2439 158.2969 1.006625 160.1515
20 145 177.75 154.2704 152.4164 150.6784 154.1543 0.434482 159.3036
21 190 177.75 152.4164 159.9331 152.5294 167.3368 1.850932 154.5888
22 166 177.75 159.9331 161.1465 154.2528 168.0402 1.723422 169.1877
23 193 177.75 161.1465 167.5172 156.9057 178.1287 2.652879 169.7636
24 182 177.75 167.5172 170.4137 159.6073 181.2202 2.701616 180.7816
25 198 177.75 170.4137 175.931 162.872 188.99 3.264743 183.9218
26 152 177.75 175.931 171.1448 164.5266 177.763 1.654555 192.2547
27 189 177.75 171.1448 174.7158 166.5644 182.8672 2.037852 179.4176
28 199 177.75 174.7158 179.5727 169.1661 189.9793 2.601649 184.9051
29 167 177.75 179.5727 177.0581 170.7445 183.3718 1.578412 192.5809
30 181 177.75 177.0581 177.8465 172.1649 183.5281 1.420404 184.9502
31 173 177.75 177.8465 176.8772 173.1074 180.6471 0.942463 184.9485
32 180 177.75 176.8772 177.5018 173.9862 181.0173 0.878882 181.5895
33 180 177.75 177.5018 178.0014 174.7893 181.2136 0.803035 181.8962
34 195 177.75 178.0014 181.4011 176.1116 186.6906 1.322372 182.0166
35 197 177.75 181.4011 184.5209 177.7935 191.2483 1.681852 188.013
36 195 177.75 184.5209 186.6167 179.5581 193.6753 1.764646 192.9302
37 173 177.75 186.6167 183.8934 180.4252 187.3616 0.867048 195.44
38 231 177.75 183.8934 193.3147 183.0031 203.6263 2.577903 188.2286
39 183 177.75 193.3147 191.2518 184.6528 197.8507 1.649734 206.2042
40 193 177.75 191.2518 191.6014 186.0425 197.1603 1.389717 199.5004
41 247 177.75 191.6014 202.6811 189.3703 215.992 3.327717 198.55
42 182 177.75 202.6811 198.5449 191.2052 205.8846 1.834929 219.3197
43 193 177.75 198.5449 197.4359 192.4513 202.4205 1.246147 207.7195
44 226 177.75 197.4359 203.1487 194.5908 211.7067 2.139481 203.6667
45 220 177.75 203.1487 206.519 196.9765 216.0615 2.385635 213.8461
46 194 177.75 206.519 204.0152 198.3842 209.6462 1.407748 218.4472
47 230 177.75 204.0152 209.2122 200.5498 217.8745 2.165591 211.0539
48 207 177.75 209.2122 208.7697 202.1938 215.3457 1.643987 220.0401
49 249 177.75 208.7697 216.8158 205.1182 228.5134 2.9244 216.9897
50 230 177.75 216.8158 219.4526 207.9851 230.9202 2.866889 231.4378
51 220 177.75 219.4526 219.5621 210.3005 228.8237 2.315406 233.7871
52 208 177.75 219.5621 217.2497 211.6903 222.809 1.389841 231.1391
53 177.75 217.2497 173.7997 204.1122 143.4873 -7.57811 224.1989
54
DATA PERMINTAAN SELAMA SATU TAHUN
300

250

200
DEMAND
konstan
DEMAND

150

100

50

0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53

DATA PERMINTAAN SELAMA SATU TAHUN


300

250

200
DEMAND
ses 0,2
DEMAND

150

100

50

0
1 4 7 1 0 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55

DATA PERMINTAAN MINGGUAN SELAMA SATU TAHUN


300

250

200
Column B
150 Column I
DEMAND

100
250

200
Column B
150 Column I

DEMAND
100

50

0
UN

DEMAND
konstan

UN

DEMAND
ses 0,2

U TAHUN

Column B
Column I
Column B
Column I
PERIODE DEMAND t2 dt a b FORCASTING
1 36 1 36 30.727273 3.318182 34.045454545
2 42 4 84 37.363636364
3 41 9 123 40.681818182
4 39 16 156 44
5 45 25 225 47.318181818
6 47 36 282 50.636363636
30.727273
7 53 49 371 53.954545455
8 62 64 496 57.272727273
9 55 81 495 60.590909091
10 68 100 680 63.909090909
11 69 121 759 67.227272727
66 557 506 3707 61.454545 3.318182
'(t)2 4356 FORCASTING 12 70.545454545

80

70
f(x) = 3.3181818182x + 30.7272727273
60

50

40 Column C
Linear (Column C)
30

20

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
FORCASTING QUADRATIC
37.2097
38.6294
40.4711
42.7348
45.4205
48.5282
52.0579
56.0096
60.3833
65.179
70.3967

DEMAND
80
70 f(x) = 0.210955711x^2 + 0.7867132867x + 36.2121212121

60
mn C 50 DEMAND
(Column C) Polynomial (DEMAND)
40
30
20
10
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
ND
mial (DEMAND)
minggu ke permintaan t2 dt a b FORCASTING

1 153 1 153 128.34842 1.864211 130.212626996


2 137 4 274 128.34842 1.864211 132.076837702
3 112 9 336 133.941048408
4 150 16 600 135.805259114
5 130 25 650 137.66946982
6 141 36 846 139.533680526
7 163 49 1141 141.397891232
8 125 64 1000 143.262101938
9 121 81 1089 145.126312644
10 142 100 1420 146.99052335
11 126 121 1386 148.854734056
12 165 144 1980 150.718944762
13 157 169 2041 152.583155468
14 163 196 2282 154.447366174
15 159 225 2385 156.31157688
16 155 256 2480 158.175787586
17 175 289 2975 160.039998292
18 146 324 2628 161.904208999
19 155 361 2945 163.768419705
20 145 400 2900 165.632630411
21 190 441 3990 167.496841117
22 166 484 3652 169.361051823
23 193 529 4439 171.225262529
24 182 576 4368 173.089473235
25 198 625 4950 174.953683941
26 152 676 3952 176.817894647
27 189 729 5103 178.682105353
28 199 784 5572 180.546316059
29 167 841 4843 182.410526765
30 181 900 5430 184.274737471
31 173 961 5363 186.138948177
32 180 1024 5760 188.003158883
33 180 1089 5940 189.867369589
34 195 1156 6630 191.731580295
35 197 1225 6895 193.595791001
36 195 1296 7020 195.460001708
37 173 1369 6401 197.324212414
38 231 1444 8778 199.18842312
39 183 1521 7137 201.052633826
40 193 1600 7720 202.916844532
41 247 1681 10127 204.781055238
42 182 1764 7644 206.645265944
43 193 1849 8299 208.50947665
44 226 1936 9944 210.373687356
45 220 2025 9900 212.237898062
46 194 2116 8924 214.102108768
47 230 2209 10810 215.966319474
48 207 2304 9936 217.83053018
49 249 2401 12201 219.694740886
50 230 2500 11500 221.558951592
51 220 2601 11220 223.423162298
52 208 2704 10816 225.287373004
SUM 1378 9243 48230 266775
'(t)^2 1898884 FORCASTING 53 227.15158371

permintaan
300

250

200 f(x) = 1.8642107061x + 126.4842055835


permintaan
Linear (permintaan)
150

100

50

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
FORCASTING QUADRATIC

129.369
131.1222
132.8796
134.6412
136.407
138.177
139.9512
141.7296
143.5122
145.299
147.09
148.8852
150.6846
152.4882
154.296
156.108
157.9242
159.7446
161.5692
163.398
165.231
167.0682
168.9096
170.7552
172.605
174.459
176.3172
178.1796
180.0462
181.917
183.792
185.6712
187.5546
189.4422
191.334
193.23
195.1302
197.0346
198.9432
200.856
202.773
204.6942
206.6196
208.5492
210.483
212.421 permintaan
214.3632
216.3096 300
218.2602
250
220.215
222.174 f(x) = 0.0021329577x^2 + 1.7468980335x + 127.6168061129
200
permintaan
224.1372
Polynomial (permintaan)
150
226.1046
100

50

0
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