Proceedings of the 19th IAHR-APD Congress 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam

ISBN 978604821338-1

PSEUDO-GLOBAL WARMING EXPERIMENT AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE EVALUATION ON

FLOOD SCALE CHANGES

KENICHIRO KOBAYASHI(1), YUICHIRO OKU(2), EIICHI NAKAKITA(3), MASUO NAKANO(4)&KAORUTAKARA(3)

(1)
Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
e-mailkkobayashi@phoenix.kobe-u.ac.jp
(2)
Osaka City Institute of Public Health and Environmental Science, Osaka, Japan
(3)
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
(4)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan

ABSTRACT
This paper deals with a methodology to assess the variations of flood hazard due to a climate change. First, Isewan
Typhoon, a largest-ever Typhoon in Japan, is reproduced with JMA-NHM using observed atmospheric conditions as the
control run (ctl). Then the pseudo global warming (pgw) experiment is carried out by changing the atmospheric
conditions to those assuming a climate change. Thesesimulated rainfalls are given to a distributed rainfall-runoff/flood
inundation (DRR/FI) model to assess the climate change impact on flooding. As the result, the simulated rainfalls of the
control run (ctl) for the reproduction of the Isewan Typhoon as well as pgw experiment both by JMA-NHM exhibit that,
though the 48-hrs rainfall of ctl underestimates the observation, the maximum hourly rainfall of pgw becomes much
higher than the observation. Therefore, the simulated water level/discharge and inundation depth with pgw rainfall
becomes all worse than those of the Isewan Typhoon.

Keywords:pseudo-global warming experiment, Isewan Typhoon, distributed rainfall-runoff/flood-inundation model, JMA-NHM,

1959

1. INTRODUCTION Bogus method enables the ensemble simulations of the

This paper presents amethodology to evaluate a climate
change impact on flooding. The application site is the
Yodogawa river catchment, Japan. First we carried out a
meteorological numericalsimulationusing Japan
Meteorological Agency-Non Hydrostatic Model
(hereinafter JMA-NHM) with the observed atmospheric
conditions(control run, ctl)to reproduceIsewan Typhoon,
one of the largest-ever Typhoons in Japan. Thenits so-
called pseudo-global warming experiment (pgw)is
conducted by changing thectl run atmospheric conditions
to those assuming a climate change. Afterwards,the
simulated ctl and pgw rainfalls are given to a rainfall-
runoff/flood inundation simulation model of the
Yodogawa river catchment to assess the climate change
impact on flooding.
Japan is an island country within which high and steep
mountains exist. Thus, the river catchment size is oftennot
large enough to use prevail Global Circulation Models
(GCMs). Thus, ultimately 5km resolution meteorological
simulation is carried out in the paper. The impact
assessment is conducted not only for the river discharge
but also the river water level and flood inundation depth
inland.
Ishikawa et al.(2013) carried out a climate change impact
assessment based on a meteorological techniquecalled
Bogus method. Theirtarget was an extreme typhoon
approaching to Kanto region, Japan in the end of 21st
century within the simulation of Meteorological Research
Institute, Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-
AGCM) 3.1s, a super high resolution GCM with 20 km
resolutionfor the whole globe(Mizuta et al. 2012).The
extreme typhoon. Then, the various rainfalls of the
ensemble simulations are given to a rainfall-runoff model
of the Tonegawa river catchment. As the result, a series of
worst case river discharges is estimated. The climate
change impact in theirpaper is estimated by
changingtheSea Surface Temperature (SST).
On the other hand, the paper deals with the pseudo-global
warming experiment in which the climate change effects
on various atmospheric parameters (not only SST) are
considered, although the ensemble simulations are not
carried out. In the paper, we attempt to show a
methodologythat can be used even for the real river
planning of Japan.
2. OVERVIEW OF THE YODOGAWA RIVER
The Yodogawa river is an important river in the Kinki
region of Japan. The source of the river is 460 tributary
rivers starting from mountain area in Shiga
prefectureultimatelyflowing into the Lake Biwa. The
inflow circulates in the lake and flows out from only one
river, the Seta river through aweir. Then the Seta river
changes its name to the Ujigawa river. The
Ujigawarivermerges with two big tributaries the
Katsuragawa and Kizugawarivers. They thenbecome the
Yodogawa river. The Yodogawa river flows out to the
Osaka bay in the end. The main river channel length is 75
km. The catchment size is 8240km2. It is the 7th largest river
in terms of the catchment size. The catchment crosses over
6 prefectures, i.e. Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, Shiga, Nara and
Mie (Yodogawa River Bureau, 2013) Figure 1 shows the
river network

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Figure 1 The river network, water Figure 3 The rainfall observatories and
level/discharge observatories and dam Figure 2 The land use of the Yodogawa Thiessen polygon in the Yodogawa river
positions of the Yodogawa river river catchment catchment

Table 1 Historical flood events in the yodogawa river catchment during 1953-1982
CA Rainfall Maximum discharge Above design water level
Year Month/day Occurrence reason
(mm) at Hirakata (m3/s) Above design discharge
1953 9.25 Typhoon5313 249 7,800
1956 9.21 Typhoon5615 176 5,025
1958 8.27 Typhoon5817 171 3,990
1959 8.14 Front/Typhoon5907 272 6,800
1959 9.27 Typhoon5915 215 7,970
1960 8.3 Typhoon6016 179 3,775
1961 10.28 Depression/front/Typhoon 251 7,206
1965 9.17 Typhoon6524 203 6,868
1972 9.17 Typhoon7220 200 5,228
1982 8.2 Typhoon8210 231 6,271
climatechange effect for the pseudo-global warming
water level/discharge observatories; and dam positions experiment. The specification is summarized in Table 2.
processed with MLIT DNLI (MLIT, 2014). Figure 2 shows In the pgw experiment, monthly mean difference of the
the land use of the catchment. Figure 3 shows the rainfall wind, pressure, temperature and water vapor between the
observatories and Thiessen polygon based on the future (2076-2099) under SRES-A1B scenario and present
positions of the observatories. The catchment is occupied (1979-2003) climates simulated by MRI-AGCM 3.2S are
with the forest by 60%. There exist large cities like Osaka, added to the ctl run initial/boundary conditions. The
Kyoto and Otsuin the catchment. resolution of the simulation is 5 km obtained by nesting 20
Table 1 shows the record of the historical flood events in km resolution simulation. The ctl and pgwrainfall output
Yodogawa during 1953-1982 (Yodogawa River Bureau, is later in the paper given to the rainfall-runoff/flood-
2014). The river has experienced 10 large floods for 30 inundation model.
years. In 5 out of 10, the design river water level or The best track of the Isewan Typhoon by JMA, the tracks
discharge was exceeded. Among these large flood events, of ctl and pgwexperiments and those central pressures are
in the paper, Typhoon in 27 Sep. 1959 of Table 1, so-called shown in Figure 4.The minimum central pressure of the
the Isewan Typhoon was selected. pgw Typhoon is lower than the ctl run, thus it is implied
In the Isewan Typhoon, the total catchment average that theIsewan Typhoon would become harder under a
rainfall was 215mm and the river discharge at Hirakata, climate change condition.
the river planning point, was 7970 m 3/s. Although the 4. YODOGAWA RAINFALL-RUNOFF/FLOOD
total rainfall was not the maximum among 10 flood INUNDATION MODEL
events, the discharge at Hirakata was the largest since
1953. Thus, this Iswan Typhoon is chosen for pgw The authors have developed a Distributed Rainfall-
experiment to see a worst case scenario. Runoff/Flood Inundation Model (hereinafter DRR/FI)
model in order to simulate flood movement in large
3. ISEWAN TYPHOON PSUEDO- catchments in a seamless/integrated manner. The details
GLOBALWARMING EXPERIMENT are explained in Kobayashi et al.(2012) (2014). With the
The Isewan Typhoon is first reproduced with JMA-NHM DRR/FI model, the flow movement inland is simulated
as the control run (ctl) using JRA 55. Then theinitial and with a 2D shallow water equation and the river flow is
boundary conditions of ctl are changed to those with a routed with a 1D dynamic wave equation. The operational
rules of the dams are also incorporated at dam locations in

2
the model. The equations applied are summarized as
follows:
4.1 One dimensionaldynamic wave simulation for the
river network
The river flow is simulated with the following 1D
dynamic wave equation. St. Venant equation with
Mannings formula for the resistance is used as the
momentum equation.
Continuity equation:

A Q Dike
+ =q
t x in /out [1]
Momentum equation
2
1 u u u h n u|u|
+ + =s 0 4/3
g t g x x R [2] Figure 4 Tracks and central pressures of theIsewan Typhoon per
6hrs. Best track by JMA (black line),ctl (water color) and pgw
Dike (peach color) are shown. The color of the symbol represents the
qin /out=0. 35 h1 2gh 1 or 0. 91h 2 2 g(h1 h2 ) central pressure. Big symbol indicates 12 UTC, 24 Sep. 1959.
[3]
whereA is the cross sectional area of the river, Q the river elevation and dike crown height. h1 is the larger value
qinDike from these two heights (a) and (b). The dike crown height
discharge, /outthe lateral in/outflow (inflow is is considered only along with the Yodogawa main
positive) per unit length in the x-direction, gthe channel. The first equation of Eq. [3] is the unsubmerged
acceleration due to the gravity, u=Q/Athe cross section overflow and second one the submerged overflow. The
average velocity, sothe slope gradient, n the mannings characteristic curve method is used for the numerical
roughness coefficient, Rthe hydraulic radius. simulation.
Eq. [3] is the overland formulae. h1, h2 are either (a) the 4.1 Two dimensional runoff/inundation simulation
river water depth minus dike crown height or (b) the
inland water depth minus the distance between inland The following 2D shallow water equation is used for the
runoff/inundation simulations in the structured grid.
Table 2 Specification of ctl and pgw experiment Continuity equation:
JMA-NHM (Nakano et al, 2012)
Simulation time 1959/9/20 00:00 ~ 9/28 00:00
h M N q Dike Dx Dike
(20km) (1 ) + + = in/out
1959/9/20 06:00 ~ 9/28 00:00 t x y ACell
(5km)
Number of nodes 34134150 (20km)
+(rainrainLoss )+qadd
83393950 (5km) [4]Momentum equation:
lateral boundary JRA-55(Ebita et al. 2011)

climate change component monthly mean difference
between the future (2076-2099)
under SRES-A1B scenario and
present (1979-2003) climates
simulated by MRI-AGCM 3.2S
radiation clear-sky radiation scheme
(Yabu et al. 2005)
cloud radiation scheme
(Kitagawa 2000)
microphysics single moment scheme for Qv,
Qc, Qt, Qi, Qs, Qg
double moment scheme for Qi
cumulus parameterization Kain-Fritsch scheme
(parameters revised)
turbulence Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-
Niino Level 3 scheme
surface SiB model (heat capacity
1.25105 Jm-2K-1)
exchange coefficient of Louis-Kondo surface boundary
momentum flux layer scheme
FDDA spectral nudging (SN) method
modified from the spectral
boundary coupling (SBC)
method (Yasunaga et al. 2005)
=gh gn 2 u 1/ 3
M uM vM H u 2 +v 2
+ +
t x y x h
[5]
N uN vN
+ + =gh
H u2+v 2
gn 2 v 1/ 3
t x y y h
[6]
whereh the inland water depth, the building
occupation ratio, i.e., the ratio of the building area to the
2D grid cell area ACell 250m250m, M = uh, N = vh the
discharge fluxes in x- and y- directions, respectively.u, v
the velocities in x- and y-direction, H the water level.
DxDike is the distance of two adjacent nodes in the 1D river
simulation. The first term on the right hand side of the Eq.
[4] represents the total water exchange between 2D grid
cells and corresponding river node. rain is the rainfall
intensity (converted from mm/hr to m/s interpolated
using 5km data to 250m). h, M, N are located on the
staggered grids. The explicit solver, leap frog method is
used for the temporal discretization. For the further
details, see Kobayashi et al. (2012) (2014).
Moreover, we received a sewage constructioncompletion
rate from Osaka prefecture (Osaka, 2012). According to

3
the data, the sewage construction completion rate of 2009 hourly rainfalls of the observation are 215mm and 19.9
in Osaka prefecture was 93.7 %, while that of 1959, when mm/hr respectively. On the other hand, those of the

Figure 5 Catchment average rainfalls of the observation, ctl and

pgw experiments

Figure 8 Inundation depth with observed rainfall using

1959 parameter

Figure 6 Simulated discharges with observation, ctl and pgw

using 1959 and 2009 parameters

Figure 9 Inundation depth with pgw rainfall using 1959

parameter

Figure 7 Simulated water levels with observation, ctl and pgw

using 1959 and 2009 parameters

Isewan Typhoon came, was 16.8%. Thus, the

sewageparameter of 1959 was set as the 16.8/93.7 of the
2009 parameter.

5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Figure 5 shows the catchment average rainfalls of the

observation (Figure 3), ctl and pgw experiments above
Hirakata observatory. Only 48 hrs around the peak of the
Isewan Typhoon is considered here (from 10:00 25 Sep.
1959 to 10:00 27 Sep. 1959). The 48-hr cumulative and max
Figure 10 Inundation depth with pgw rainfall using 2009
parameter

4
 Kobayashi.K., Takara, K., Sano, H., Tsumori, H. and Sekii,
control run become 139mm and 15.6mm/hr; and of the K. (2014). A High Resolution Large Scale Flood Hazard
pgw 173mm and 42.3mm. Thus, with regard to the and Economic Risk Model for the Property Loss
totalrainfall, the observation becomes maximum, while it Insurance in Japan, Journal of Flood Risk Management
was the pgw in the hourly rainfall. The pgw rainfall shows ,DOI:10.1111/jfr3.12117
that the rainfall becomes apparently stronger due to a Mizuta, R.,Yoshimura, H., Murakami, M., Matsueda, H.,
climate change. Moreover, the pgw rainfall becomes very Endo, T.,Ose, K.,Kamiguchi, M.,Hosaka, M., Sugi,
intensive. S.,Yukimoto, S.,Kusunoki, A.,Kitoh, A. (2012).Climate
Simulations Using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km Grid, J.
The simulated dischargeand water level at Hirakata with
Meteor. Soc. Jpn., pp. 233-258
thosectl and pgw rainfalls are shown in Figures 6 and 7. In
MLIT (2014). Digital National Land Information download
Figure 6, the discharge reproduced with the observed
service, http://nlftp.mlit.go.jp/ksj/(accessed on 12
rainfall using 1959 parameter shows relatively good
June 2014)
agreement with the recorded discharge. The discharge
Nakano, M., Kato, T., Hayashi, S., Kanada, S., Yamada, Y.
becomes smaller with ctl rainfall than the observed
and Kurihara, K (2012).Development of a 5-km-mesh
discharge. Note that the water level record at Isewan
cloud-system-resolving regional climate model at the
Typhoon time is not remained so that it is difficult to
Meteorological Research Institute, J. Meteor. Soc. Jpn,
evaluate the water level simulation results objectively. On
90A, 339-350, doi: 10.2151/jmsj.2012-A19
the other hand, the maximum discharge and water level
Osaka Prefecture (2012). Neyagawa flood inundation
with pgwand 1959 parameter become 11613 m3/s and 12.5
record, personal communication
m. These values are close to the design level 12000 m 3/s
Yodogawa River Bureau
and 13.2 m at Hirakata.
(2013).Yodogawa http://www.yodogawa.kkr.mlit.g
Figures 8, 9 and 10 show the simulated inundation depth o.jp/index.html (accessed on 12June 2014)
with observation and pgw rainfalls. As there is no
inundation record by municipal government at the time of
Isewan Typhoon, these simulation results are considered
more for the evaluation of relative changes of the
inundation depth due to a climate change.Since the
rainfall observation is sparse as shown in Figure 3, the
inundation depth in Figure 8 is not necessarily
comparable to the inundation depths simulated with 5km
resolution pgwrainfalls in Figures 9 and 10. At any rate,
the inundation depths with pgw rainfall using both 1959
and 2009 parameters (Figures 9 and 10) become bigger
than the depth with observation (Figure 8).
As shown in the paper, we can evaluate a climate change
impact on flooding using the pseudo-global warming
method presented. This method is useful when
conducting a climate change assessment for a specific
catchment. In the future, it is considered that the
probability of the Typhoon occurrence can be added by
increasing the number of pgw simulations for different
typhoons.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to thank MLIT, Osaka and Shiga
prefectures for their support. This research is in part the
result of the research project between Kobe, Kyoto
Universities and SJNK risk management, Japan.

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