PROYECTO

Duracin de la Inversin 1 ao
Inversin 50,000 $
Momento 0 60%
Momento 1 40%
Duracin de operacin 3 aos (Despus de Inversin)
Costos fijos 12000 $/ao
Costos variables 2 unidad
Cantidad de Unidades 9000 unidad/ao
Precio del bien generado 6 $/unidad
Tasa de Descuento 8% anual
PROYECTO
Duracin de la Inversin 1 ao
Inversin 50,000 $
Momento 0 60%
Momento 1 40%
Duracin de operacin 3 aos
Costos fijos 12000 $/ao
Costos variables 2 unidad
Cantidad de Unidades 9000 unidad/ao
Precio del bien generado 6 $/unidad
Tasa de Descuento 8% anual
 SIMULAR CON DISTRIBUCIN NORMAL

Duracin de la Inversin 1 ao
Inversin 50,000 $
Momento 0 60%
Momento 1 40%
Duracin de operacin 3 aos (DESPUS DE INVERSIN)
Costos fijos 12000 $/ao
Costos variables 2 unidad
Cantidad de Unidades 9000 unidad/ao Desv.Stand. 6.00
Precio del bien generado 6 $/unidad Desv.Stand. 0.30
Tasa de Descuento 8% anual

0 1 2 3 4
INGRESOS
VENTAS 57297.6862 57297.6862 57297.6862

EGRESOS
INVERSION 30,000.00 20,000.00
C.FIJOS 12000 12000 12000
C.VARIABLES 17990 17990 17990
TOTAL DE EGRESOS 30,000.00 20,000.00 29990 29990 29990

FLUJO (30,000.00) (20,000.00) 27,307.69 27,307.69 27,307.69

V.A.N 16,643.11

ITERACION VAN
1 16,643.11 PROBABILIDAD QUE NO SE GANE HOY
2 16,643.11 VECES<=0 0
3 16,643.11 TOTAL 500
4 16,643.11
5 16,643.11 P(VAN<=0) 0
6 16,643.11
7 16,643.11
8 16,643.11 BENEFICIO ESPERADO
9 16,643.11
10 16,643.11 PROMEDIO E 16,643.11
11 16,643.11 DESV ESTAND7.28326E-11
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 SIMULADA
8995
6.37

OBABILIDAD QUE NO SE GANE HOY