DAMODARAM SANJIVAYYA NATIONAL LAW

UNIVERSITY
VISAKHAPATNAM, A.P., INDIA

PROJECT TITLE: THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR.

SUBJECT: POLITICAL SCIENCE

NAME OF THE FACULTY: NIRMALA MA'AM

Name of the Candidate : V.Saketh Roy Vydyula

Roll Number : 2015106

Section B Semester 2

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 ACKNOWLEDMENT

This research was supported by Damodaram Sanjivayya Sational Law University. I thank our
colleagues from who provided insight and expertise that greatly assisted the research,
although they may not agree with all of the interpretations/conclusions of this paper.

We thank our professor Nirmala ma'am for assistance with [particular technique,
methodology], and for comments that greatly improved the manuscript.

We would also like to show our gratitude to our prestigious institution and our professor for
sharing their pearls of wisdom with us during the course of this research, and we thank
anonymous reviewers for their so-called insights. We are immensely grateful to our
professor Nirmala ma'am for his comments on an earlier version of the manuscript, although
any errors are our own and should not tarnish the reputations of these esteemed persons.

With regards;

SAKETH ROY VYDYULA

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

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 RESEARCH QUESTION:

1. What is the root cause for the break out of the war?
2. What are the effects and impact of the war on the people of the country and the
world?
3. How does the ongoing refugee crisis affect the situation further ?

HYPOTHESIS:

The war will lead to the strengthening of the regional conflict and weaken the state ultimately
leading to a breakup of the country.

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY:

The objective of the study is firstly to find out the reason under which the war broke out in
Syria and its impact on the world and its people. The objective is also to understand the
extension of the war for decades and the affect of the international involvement on this
uprising. The objective is also to formulate reliable and alternative solutions to assuage the
casualties of the war and bring peace to the state.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:

The researcher has opted the doctrinal method of research for this project.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY:

This project restricts its purview to the history of the war, causes of the war, an overview of
the current situation, impact of the war and international involvement.

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY:

The topic is quite significant as the Syrian conflict is in a state of war whose impact and
chaos is gradually going beyond the power of man. The situation needs immediate attention
and requires to be addressed at once in order to lessen the collateral damage and save the
country from total annihilation.

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 SYRIAN CIVIL WAR
What is a civil war?
There are over 30 definitions of civil war. While some differentiate by motive, others use the
number of causalities or the type of actors involved as criteria. One of the most
comprehensive definitions is that of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC),
which classifies non-international armed conflicts as a situation of violence involving
protracted armed confrontations between government forces and one or more organized
armed groups, or between such groups themselves, arising on the territory of a State. A civil
war is therefore different from isolated acts of terrorism, riots, civil unrest, genocide or a
revolution in that there is a minimum degree of organisation and resistance on the non-state
side (with at least 5% of casualties inflicted by the weaker party), and a minimal level of
intensity in the fighting. But it is chiefly the existence of an organised, nonstate armed group
(typically consisting of between 500 and 5000 members) which differentiates civil wars from
other forms of conflict: a reason why the large-scale violence which plagued Iraq from 2006
onwards does not fall into this category. In the case of Syria, however, the ICRC declared the
conflict to be a civil war in July 2012 based on a series of benchmarks, such as intensity of
armed clashes, the type and numbers of government forces involved, and the number of
casualties and damage caused. In its assessment of the level of organisation of non-state
forces, the ICRC looks at military criteria such as the existence of a chain of command, the
capacity to transmit and enforce orders, the ability to plan and launch coordinated military
operations, and the capacity to recruit, train and equip new fighters. This definition like
many others does not account for the motives for conflict. Indeed, there are different types
of civil wars, including wars of secession, anti-colonial struggles, or wars aiming at regime.1

1
http://www.iamsyria.org/conflict-background.html

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 INTRODUCTION TO THE SYRIAN WAR
As we all know Syria is in the centre of the world's attention now as its rich culture and
heritage are threatened and the country finds itself entangled in an ugliest warfare the
mankind has ever witnessed. The international media assumes the spark which caused this
fire is the Arab spring which represented the freewill revolt of the Arab world against their
oppressive and totalitarian governments. While the uprising was successful in parts of the
Arab world it failed to even plant its seed in the state of Syria. Unprecedented inflow of
finance, arms and intelligence from other countries turned the peaceful uprising into an armed
insurgency. Syria enjoyed peace and tranquillity for years until the regime of Bashar al-
Assad had begun, who at first seemed like a great leader. But the happiness obviously did not
last for long. He tightened the restrictions and isolated his economy; freedom and democracy
were out of the question. After 12 years of oppression the Syrians took to question the
government which was answered with guns and arrests. Any chance of a peaceful resolution
is dying with its demonstrators. The Syrian war extends for so long because the rebel groups
keep trying to overthrow the regime ignoring the fact that they didnt stand a chance against it
as they were scattered and lacked unity and a unifying cause. The civil war in Syria is a
mess; after four years of continuous conflict the war is now divided between 4 groups, with
each have their own foreign backers. The countries fail to give a rational explanation as to
who they are fighting for or who they are fighting against. In this process more than 250,000
Syrians have lost their lives and More than 11 million others have been forced from their
homes as forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and those opposed to his rule battle each
other - as well as jihadist militants from Islamic State.

THE CLANS INVOLVED2:

Tens of thousands of people have been killed and millions displaced in Syrias civil war. A
popular uprising against President Bashar al-Assad that began as peaceful street protests in
March 2011 gradually evolved into civil war after a fierce government crackdown. The
conflict initially pitted rebels against government forces, but has since fragmented with rival
rebel groups fighting each other for control over rebel-held areas. Syria comprises a sectarian

2
Clarion Project Research Fellow Elliot Friedland.

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and ethnic mix of Sunnis, Alawites, Kurds, Christians and Druze. Assad's strategy has been
to cling to power and save his Alawite clan, which has ruled Syria since 1970 and is a
minority in a country of 21 million with a Sunni Muslim majority. The Alawite sect is an
offshoot of Shi'ite Islam. His military is better equipped and better trained than even the most
powerful rebel groups. Although relatively powerless within the country, the National
Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces is internationally recognised as the
legitimate representative of the Syrian people. The coalition comprises Syrians in exile and
has little influence on the ground. Islamist militias have refused to join it. Rebels control
much of the north and east of the country, including some of eastern Syrias main oil-
producing areas, starving the government of a major source of hard currency. However,
Assads military has retained bases in every major northern city, except Raqqa. Rebels also
control southern areas close to the Jordanian border and the Golan Heights near Israel. But
they have lost Syrias third-largest city, Homs, as well as territory along the main highway
from Homs to Damascus, and some of the capitals suburbs. Assads forces now have a
strong hold over the heart of the country. The ideal solution, analysts say, would be an
internationally sponsored transitional government that would represent all sides. This idea
was enshrined in a peace plan agreed by foreign powers in Geneva in June 2012, which is the
basis of Geneva II peace talks which began in January 2014 between Assads government
and some of its opponents. The conflict, which has been joined by al Qaeda-style fighters, has
drawn in Syria's neighbours. Lebanons Shi'ite Hezbollah militants are fighting alongside
Assad's forces. And fighters from Iraq are supporting different sides of Syrias war. The most
powerful rebel group in Syria Islamic State originates in Iraq where it also controls
swathes of territory. Iran and Russia are supporting Assad, and Saudi Arabia, Qatar and
Turkey support some of the rebels. Many reports from Syria cannot be independently verified
as the authorities restrict rights groups and journalists access to the country.

WHO'S WHO ?
THE REGIME

Who: Forces fighting for President Bashar al-Assad. His core supporters are from the
Alawite minority to which he belongs.
Ideology: Baathist, Secularist, Arab Nationalist
Supporting States: Russia, Iran

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Goals: Preserving Assads regime
President Bashar al-Assad inherited Syria from his father, Hafez al-Assad in 2000.
Resentment at his autocratic rule boiled over during the Arab Spring protest of 2011. After he
refused to heed calls to step down, protestors and deserters from his army began an open
insurrection, beginning the war. He has remained steadfast in his position that he is the
legitimate President of Syria and that his enemies are terrorists.

REGIME AFFILIATED ARMED GROUPS

SYRIAN ARMED FORCES

Commander: Fahd Jassem al-Freij
What: The National Armed forces of the state of Air Power (Russian MiGs)
Strengths / Tactics: Dropping barrel-bombs on civilian areas in Syria
Goal: Preserving Assad regime
Side: Regime
Component Groups: Infantry, Artillery, Tanks, Air Force
Estimated Strength: 220-280,000, Artillery,

Those of the Syrian armed forces that have remained loyal to Assad. At the start of the war
their strength was estimated at 178,000 with 314,000 reservists. Estimates are harder to
measure now, but their strength is estimated as being between 220-280,000 men. The main
advantage of the Syrian Armed Forces is their complete domination of the air. It has been
sharply criticized for perpetrating human rights abuses. The Syrian Air force is mostly made
up of Russian supplied MiGs.3

AL-QUDS FORCE AND BASIJ MILITIA (IRAN)

Commander: Qasem Soleimani
What: Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Special Forces and Paramilitary Support Units
Goal: Iranian regional hegemony
Side: Regime
Ideology: Shi'ite Islamist, Iranian Nationalist
Component Groups: Al-Quds Force, Basij Militias

3
http://migs15.com/en/

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Estimated Strength: Quds Force 15,000 total, Basij militias unknown
Strengths / Tactics: Elite infantry force, superior training and military intel

The Al-Quds force is the elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,set up after 1979 to
safeguard theIslamic Republic. It has been sent to secure Iranian interests in propping up
Assad. Aside from battlefield support, Iran also supplies weapons, intelligence, training and
strategic advice. They do not merely serve as soldiers, but have input on a higher strategic
level, although it is not known to what extent. Little is known about the secretive force, but
its strength is estimated at around 15,000 men in total. How many are in Syria is unknown.
They are supported by the Basij, fiercely loyal paramilitaries that serve under the
Revolutionary Guard

HEZBOLLAH

Estimated Strength: 20,000-30,000

Commander: Hassan Nasrallah
What: Lebanese Shi'ite terrorist group formed to fight Israel
Goal: Supporting Iran/Assad strategic alliance
Side: Regime, Iran
Ideology: Shiite Islamism
Component Groups: None (25% full-time active)
Strengths / Tactics: Well-trained, disciplined fighting force which turned the tide for the
Regime at Qusayr and Yabroud battles

Originally founded to fight Israel in southern Lebanon, the Shiite militia force
joined the conflict in 2013. Its name translates to "Party of God." Assad has long been a
backer of Hezbollah and allows Iran to ship weapons to the terrorist group through Syria.
Hezbollah forces provided much needed reinforcements which have been instrumental in
recent regime gains, in particular in recapturing the strategically important town of Qusayr in
2013, and recently Yabroud. It is widely regarded as being more powerful than the Lebanese
army. There are fears that Hezbollah's involvement will drag heavily divided Lebanon into
the war. The US State Department has classified the group asa foreign terrorist organization.

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 THE REBELS

Who: Forces fighting against President Bashar al-Assads regime. A combination of Sunni
Islamists, secularist forces as well as Kurdish and other militias.
Supporting States: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, (to a lesser extent the USA and some
European countries)
Goals: Removing Assad from power, many groups aim for the creation of an Islamic state,
Kurds aim for autonomy

There are a myriad of different factions fighting Assad. Protests against his rule spread across
the country in 2011 and were met with heavy repression. At the beginning of the war, most of
them were, at least officially, secularist and democratic in outlook. As the war has progressed
the rebels have become increasingly Islamist.

REBEL AFFILIATED ARMED GROUPS4

ISLAMIC FRONT
Commander: Ahmed Issa al-Sheik (from Suqour al-Sham)
What: A coalition of Islamist brigades
Goal: The removal of Assad and later creation of an Islamic State, Jihad
Side: Rebels, Islamists. Cooperates with Jabhat Al-Nusra
Ideology: Sunni Islamism
Component Groups: Ahrar as-Sham, Suquor al-Sham Brigades, The Tawhid Brigade,
The Haq Brigade, The Ansar al-Sham Battalions, The Islam Army
Estimated Strength: 40,000 to 70,000 (March 5th)
Strengths / Tactics: Syria's most powerful insurgent bloc, slightly more moderate
Salafi Islamism than Nusra or ISIS

"Syria's most powerful insurgent bloc" was formed as a merger between various Islamist
factions that share the goal of establishing an Islamic State. It is a coalition of Islamist
brigades that has a semi-unified command. Tensions have existed between the Islamic Front
and ISIS Groups were rankled by ISIS's brutal application of Islamist principles and extreme

4
Clarion Project Research Fellow Elliot Friedland.

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violence. In particular, a series of high profile murders, especially the murder of a
commander from Ahrar as-Sham and seizures of weapons depots by ISIS fighters provoked
fellow jihadis. The coalition fights variously against ISIS, Assad's force and factions of the
Free Syria Army (FSA). On and off it has cooperated with FSA banner coalitions such as the
Syrian Revolutionary Front (SRF). Frequently, however, battalions have refused to fight their
fellow jihadis in ISIS, and have allowed FSA banner brigades such as those in the SRF to
bear the brunt of the fighting.

JABHAT AL-NUSRA
Commander: Abu Mohammed al-Joulani
Estimated Strength: 15,000-20,000
Strengths / Tactics: Suicide bombings
What: Al Qaeda's official affiliate in the Syrian conflict
Goal: Global Islamic caliphate, Jihad
Side: Rebels, Islamists.
Ideology: Sunni Islamism
Component Groups: None

n the Syrian War, Nusra is one of the most effective and feared fighting forces in the war.
They swear loyalty personally to al-Qaeda leader Sheik Zawahiri. They have (officially)
prioritized defeating the regime over creating an Islamic state, leading to disagreements with
ISIS, which does the opposite. It still maintains the long term Islamist goal of establishing in
Islamic Caliphate in the Levant. Their fighters are a combination of guerilla fighters from
Iraq with experience fighting American soldiers and local Jihadists. Better funding and
resources allowed Nusra to gain recruits at the expense of them cashstrapped Free Syria
Army. ISIS and Nusra split in mid-2013 when Zawahiri called on ISIS to disband and they
refused. They are allied with the Islamic Front and work together occasionally with FSA
units such as the SRF.

THE ISLAMIC STATE (AKA: ISIS, ISIL, DAASH)

Commander: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi
What: Terrorist group establishing state, formed from Islamic State of Iraq
Goal: An Islamic state in parts of Iraq and Syria, Global Islamic caliphate
Side: Rebels, Islamists

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Ideology: Sunni Islamism
Component Groups: None
Estimated Strength: Reliable estimate unavailable
Strengths / Tactics: Brutality, implementation of sharia

The most notorious of Syria's many factions, this Sunni Islamist group seeks to establish an
independent state in western Syria and northern Iraq, and has declared itself as such. Formed
out of al-Qaeda in Iraq, called the Islamic State of Iraq, they initially entered the Syrian Civil
War to support the Islamist cause there. Extreme violence and brutality in enforcing Sharia
law have been the hallmarks of its presence. For example, in one incident they displayed the
crucified bodies of their enemies in Raqqa. Its Emir, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had a personal
dispute with the leader of Jabhat al-Nusra and with al-Qaeda head Sheik Zawahiri which
resulted in the group being expelled from al-Qaeda. ISIS then stopped providing Iraqi oil
revenues to Nusra. It has also engaged in fighting Kurdish militias, Nusra and other brigades
flying FSA banners. ISIS is comprised mostly of foreigners and very few ethnic Syrians. It
has been accused of betraying the revolution to further its own ends andof collaborating with
the regime. They are propped up by a local ansar network (helpers) that provides logistical
and local support. See our ISIS factsheet.

FREE SYRIAN ARMY

Commander: Various, officially Abdul-Ilah alBashir. Syrian Revolutionary Front (SRF)-

Jamal Ma'aruf
What: Umbrella of broadly secularist rebel forces formed mainly from Syrian army deserters
Goal: End of the Assad regime, democratic state
Side: Rebels
Ideology: Broadly secularist, some Islamist elements/sympathies
Component Groups: Supreme Military Council, Syrian Revolutionary Front (SRF),
Euphrates Islamic Liberation Front, others
Estimated Strength: Reliable estimate unavailable
Strengths / Tactics: Western backed official opposition, comparatively poor funding
The oldest of the Syrian rebel factions, formed in the early days of the war primarily out of
defectors from the Syrian army. They do not operate as a unified army rather they are a loose

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group of battalions and coalitions that fight under the broad banner of the FSA. They have
suffered heavy losses both to regime forces and ISIS, whom they have been fighting but still
remain a central component of the rebel forces. Their exact numbers are unknown. Fresh
defections from the Syrian army have bolstered their ranks over the course of the war.
Defections are estimated in the 'tens of thousands.' Some FSA brigades swear loyalty to the
Supreme Military Council. They have received limited aid from the west. In response to the
merger of the Islamic Front, a loosely western aligned coalition called the Syrian
Revolutionary Front formed under the FSA banner, commanded by Jamal Ma'aruf. The
Euphrates Islamic Liberation Front is another FSA banner coalition. On occasion these
groups have fought the Islamic Front and Jabhat al-Nusra and have joined both against ISIS
and the regime.

THE ROLE OF TERROR IN THE SYRIAN CONFLICT

The discussion of terrorism in Syria ought not to be confined to an administratively ordained

order of battle. The emergence of contemporary international terrorism in the late 1960s
prompted an international effort aimed at preventing terrorist tactics from becoming a mode
of political expression or a legitimate component of armed conflict. This effort achieved a
measure of success in reducing some terrorist tactics, but the fact is that terrorism has become
a component of contemporary warfare, and I suspect that terrorism will be a growing feature
of the Syrian conflict. The rebels cannot seem to make the transition from a resistance
movement to a field force capable of challenging the governments forces on the battlefield.
For the time being, the rebels are able to take and hold smaller towns. They can infiltrate the
periphery of larger cities, forcing the government to use its airpower and heavy weapons to
drive them out, thereby causing heavy civilian casualties and collateral damage. The rebels
can carry out spectacular terrorist attacks, principally large-scale bombings, to gain attention
and demonstrate that the government cannot guarantee security, hoping that these actions will
create an untenable situation that eventually brings about a change of regime from within or
provokes intervention from abroad. With less concern about tactics that offend Western
sensitivities, jihadists thrive in this kind of warfare.5

5
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Syria Regional Refugee Response, November 17, 2013,
http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php, and United Nations, Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs, No Country for Syrias IDPs, July 19, 2013, http://www.wfp.org/content/no-countrysyrias-
idps.

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On the other side, the Syrian governments approach to counterinsurgency is informed by its
own historical experience in suppressing Muslim revolts and by Soviet/Russian doctrine as
displayed in the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya. It is a strategy of terror characterized by
the static defence of major population centres and strategic lines of communication in Syria;
this will translate into the defence of Damascus, Aleppo, and other large cities, ethnically
friendly enclaves, and the major highways that connect them. Offensive operations are
marked by intensive aerial and artillery bombardment, razing entire neighbourhoods and
towns, the deliberate targeting of bakeries (an important component of food production) and
hospitals, and the destruction of commerce in rebel-held zones. These brutal tactics serve the
dual purpose of terrorizing supporters of the rebels and binding Assads forces to the regime
by making them accomplices in actions that foreclose any other future for them. Local
militias, backed by airpower and armoured units, root out rebel fighters and carry out ethnic
cleansing. They are the now Syrias weapons of mass destruction. These tactics generate
civilian casualties and vast numbers of refugees. Over time, the Syrian army will cease to be
national institution, while militias will become the primary protectors and enforcers of the
regime.This has implications for any future foreign military intervention. Neutralizing Syrias
armed forceswill not end the fighting. Nor will there be any national army to subsequently
maintain orderwarcrimes will make what remnants survive undesirable allies. Instead, the
occupying forces willhave to confront a host of autonomous military formations and criminal
groups, defeating and disarming them piecemeal while providing protection to local
communities until new security institutions are created6.

CAUSES OF THE WAR IN BRIEF

GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE
Bashar al-Assad, the son of Syria's former president, was not elected to his position of such
great power. His near omnipotence in his country was a result of inheritance. Because Assad
was never elected by the will of the Syrian people, his opponents argue that he has no right to
rule them, and must leave. Unfortunately, Assad disagrees with this idea. Assad believes that

6
Data for 2012 provided to the author by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Response
to Terrorism (START), University of Maryland.

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he does have a right to rule Syria, for he has dedicated a majority of his life to doing just that.
Assad and the ruling Ba'ath party have been in control of Syria for such a long time that other
groups feel like their voices are not represented in their own government. The opposition
calls for an end to the Ba'ath rule, including an end to Assad's reign. This huge divide in
opinion is believed by many to be the main cause of the Syrian Civil War. Of course, Assad
is vehemently opposed to that idea.

THE ARAB SPRING MOVEMENT

The Arab Spring Movement has swept across Middle East in recent years, causing dramatic
positive change in some countries and dramatic negative impacts in others. The Syrian people
saw what was possible through the Arab Spring movement, and, in order to have what they
believe would be a better life, Syrians followed in the footsteps of so many other nations that
endeavoured to produce change through mass protests and demonstrations.7 The movement
has been so influential in Syria because social networking and the internet in general has
made a plethora of information and support available for so many Syrians who had, in the
past, minimal contact with the outside world. Once Syrians saw that so much was changing in
their own region of the world, they were inspired and encouraged to seek reform in their own
country.

THE RIGHTS OF SYRIANS

Many believe that the conflict in Syria would not have led to a war if the two sides could
have reached a compromise. Instead, Assad's reaction to the protests that raged in Syrian
cities was to attack to protesters. This enraged the already irate demonstrators, and, because
they claimed that Assad should be removed because of his dictatorial nature, Assad's actions
actually added momentum to their cause.Since the start of the conflict, the cost of food and
fuel has spiralled, while people have lost their homes and livelihoods. Millions of people in
Syria need aid, and many are out of reach of aid agencies, the United Nations
says. Government restrictions, fighting, roadblocks and criminal activities such as kidnapping
have limited aid agencies' ability to reach parts of the country. Many aid workers have been
killed while delivering aid. Humanitarian laws have been intentionally and flagrantly
violated by all parties in the war, the United Nations top official for emergency operations

7
https://sites.google.com/site/thesyriancivilwar/causes-of-the-war

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Valerie Amos has said. U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon has accused warring parties of denying
people aid as a tactic of war. People in rebel areas are among the most vulnerable. The
government does not allow humanitarian agencies to deliver aid across international borders,
although it has approved the delivery of some aid from Damascus to opposition areas. Still,
the journey from Damascus is dangerous and involves passing many checkpoints manned by
either government or opposition forces. In July 2014, the United Nations sent its first
humanitarian aid convoy into rebel-held areas without government consent, after the U.N.

ECONOMIC WOES
Syria's economy before the Syrian Civil War was far from perfect. Because of high
unemployment and the inability of many Syrians to provide for their family's basic needs,
much animosity was felt towards the government, for they should have done something to
improve the economy. What the Assad government could have done to ameliorate the
situation is unclear, but the fact that the Syrian people were not content caused unrest and
contributed to starting the Syrian Civil War.8

INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT9

THE MIDDLE EAST

Turkey: Turkey, one of Syria's border countries, has felt the impacts of the Syrian Civil War
more than any other country involved. Refugees have flooded over Turkey's borders en
masse. This dramatic influx in population has been hard on Turkey's economy and morale.
To add to the problem, some of the fighting from the Syrian Civil War has overflowed into
Turkey, causing some Turkish casualties. Because of this, Turkey is a staunch supporter of
the opposition and wants to see Bashar al-Assad removed from power.

Israel: Israel, like Turkey, has seen the Syrian Civil War come into their country. Syrians in
the west of Syria have bombed areas of Israel, and, in retaliation, Israeli forces fired back into
Syria. The fighting between the two countries is minimal compared to the fighting

8
http://www.britannica.com/event/Syrian-Civil-War
9
https://sites.google.com/site/thesyriancivilwar/international-involvement

17
experienced in Syria amongst its own people, but it is still substantial enough to have turned
Israel to support the opposition forces in order to see an end to the conflict.

Iraq: Iraq, a country similar to Syria in that it is somewhat unstable, wishes to see Assad
remain in power. Assad has allied himself with Iraq in many instances, and Iraq fears that, if
the opposition takes control of the country, then Iraq will lose a valuable ally in the Middle
East.
EUROPE

France: France has supported the efforts of the opposition forces since the start of the Syrian
Civil War. The French people were at the forefront of pursuing international resolutions to
force Assad from his position of power and to install a permanent government in Syria
consisting of the people who have been fighting against the Assad regime, and they have also
recognized the opposition as the true government of the Syrian people.

Great Britain: Like France, Great Britain has been in support of the opposition forces for a
long while. The British government has formally recognized opposition forces as the true
government of Syria instead of the Assad regime. They have also endeavored to talk to the
opposition forces to see what assistance their country can provide to ensure that the
opposition wins the Syrian Civil War.

Germany: Germany, following its fellow European countries, has recognized the opposition
as Syria's real government instead of the Assad regime. The country is open to military
involvement in Syria through international cooperation with the United States. Germany is
ready to take any action to ensure that the opposition defeats Bashar al-Assad.

Russia: Russia, unlike most other European countries, has supported Bashar al-Assad. Russia
has been a primary force in international organizations for the halting of resolutions that
would put pressure of the Assad regime and had support of a majority of the international
community. This is most likely attributable to Russia's interests in the region. Assad is
Russia's, and, if he is removed from power, then Syria will most likely abandon that
partnership. Though Russia is beginning to become open to the idea of supporting opposition

18
forces as the Assad regime is becoming more desperate, the country is still a long way from
accepting the opposition.10

ASIA

China: China has partnered with Russia in its efforts to keep Bashar al-Assad in power. The
country has stood up against almost the entire international community in this stance because
of its economic ties to the region. China believes, like Russia, that, if Bashar al-Assad is
removed from power, then China will lose a valuable economic alliance.

THE AMERICANS

The United States: Because the United States is in the process of wrapping up two wars in the
Middle East, they were hesitant to involve themselves in the conflict in Syria. However,
because of the country's strong views about democracy, the American government has
supported international actions condemning Assad's actions 11. Military involvement was a
third-rail in election politics, but, now that the election is over, the United States has taken
more decisive action. They have formally recognized the Syrian opposition as the
government of the country, and they are beginning to consider military action in the region.

Canada: Canada has joined the other superpowers in the world in recognizing the Syrian
opposition as the rightful government of the country of Syria. They have supported
international resolutions against the Assad regime and have shown their willingness to take
harsher actions.

INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS

The United Nations: The United Nations (U.N.) has been at the forefront of the international
debates about who to support in the Syrian Civil War since its start in 2011 12 . As an
international organization dedicated to ensuring a peaceful, just world, the U.N. had to decide
which side of the conflict was in the right. At the forefront of the support for Bashar al-Assad
were Russia and China, who both had personal interests in seeing Assad stay in power. On
the other hand, France, Great Britain, and the United States to some extent, were dedicated to

10
http://www.iamsyria.org/conflict-background.html
11
http://news.trust.org//spotlight/Syrias-civil-war/?tab=briefing
12
https://sites.google.com/site/thesyriancivilwar/international-involvement

19
helping opposition forces. They met at the U.N. to discuss resolutions and sanctions to
impose on Syria, but they were never very successful because every pro-opposition proposal
was shot down by Russia and China, and every pro-Assad proposition never made it to the
final planning stages because of overwhelming opposition in the U.N. Because of this, the
U.N. is only a bureaucratic figure in the Syrian Civil War that does not have a large impact.
However, in the few resolutions that have been passed, every action was dedicated to helping
the opposition, and agreement is becoming more feasible as Syrian forces are becoming more
desperate.

The Arab League: The Arab League has come out in overwhelming support of the
opposition forces since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War. Their condemnation of Bashar
al-Assad's actions have shown that the Middle East in general is not in support of
governments that mistreat their citizens, as the Arab League claims Assad has done. This idea
reflects a growing trend in Arab mentalities since the Arab Spring movement.

IMPACTS OF THE WAR

NATIONAL
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The Syrian Civil War has devastated Syria and its people. The death toll is not easily
confirmed, but the deadliest single day of the Syrian Civil War was estimated to have seen
397 Syrians killed. Overall, the death toll sits somewhere around 50,000 casualties.
Considering Syrians small population, the death toll is a huge blow to the nation. The
remaining Syrians have lost all faith in their country, and many of them have fled to
neighboring countries to find safety. The U.N. reports that 408,464 refugees have been
registered under their refugee program, and, because some refugees do not have the
opportunity to register with the program, the actual number of refugees is probably much
higher. The human impacts match the destruction that has been witnessed by many Syrian
cities. The war strategies of both sides involve capturing key strategic areas, and cities like
Damascus and Homs have been pounded by incessant bombing and fighting. Entire
neighborhoods, and, in some cases, entire cities no longer exist. That equates to thousands of
Syrians having no home and no possessions to sustain them in these difficult

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https://sites.google.com/site/thesyriancivilwar/impacts

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times. Whenever such a horrific event happens in a country, the people and their belongings
suffer, but lesser-known impacts include the economy. Of course, the Syrian people are not
concerning themselves with economic issues at present, but, when the Syrian Civil War
finally ends, the Syrian people will face a devastated economy and decimated resources
available to rebuild it. Syrians will have a long road ahead of them to rebuild their country to
its former state when the war is over, for the death, desertion, and decimation of their country
has already left a huge scar.

REGEIONAL

Syria is located in the Middle East. Already, that region has been the world's most tumultuous
region throughout at least the past century, and, according to some, throughout all of history.
The recent Arab Spring movement that has swept across the region has caused many
uprisings. In fact, the Syrian Civil War was partly caused by inspiration gleaned from other
countries that successfully ousted their old, dictatorial regimes. The Syrian Civil War has
been another source of inspiration for the region. Although the Syrian opposition has not yet
won, their efforts are gaining every day, and the fact that they have been able to experience
this much success thus far has shown the region that, despite the seemingly unhopeful
situation of opposition forces, success is possible for the lesser party. Unfortunately, that
positive message is contrasted by the myriad of negative effects in the region. The thousands
of Syrians who have fled their country have gone primarily to neighboring countries. The
population influx has severely crippled these countries, for they were experiencing economic
woes before the addition of so many mouths to feed. If not for international assistance, the
many Middle Eastern countries that have accepted the Syrian refugees would not have the
capacity to care for them. In addition, the conflict in Syria has presented a problem for
leaders of other countries in the region. They have been forced to decide whether they want
to be loyal to Bashar al-Assad or the Syrian opposition. Assad, despite his flaws, has been a
valuable ally for Middle Eastern countries to have, and, despite the opposition's appeal as a
champion of democracy, human rights, and progress, some Middle Eastern countries are still
reluctant to disavow their previous ties to Assad. The shift in alliances that has been
experienced throughout the Middle East because of the Syrian Civil War has further
catapulted the region into turmoil, which is the last thing anyone there needs. The Syrian

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Civil War is an ideological step in the right direction for the region, but its negative impacts
have seemed to outweigh the positive ones for other countries.14

GLOBAL

Though geographically distant, the problems experienced in Syria are of upmost importance
to the entire world, and, without solving the problem of Syria's Civil War, the entire world
will be harmed. As the world has already witnessed in Egypt and Tunisia, among other
nations, unstable governments act as catalysts for harmful terrorist organizations like al
Qaeda and Hamas. If Syria's government remains in disarray, then these terrorist
organizations will have a strong foothold in the country, and their hegemony over the Middle
East will spread. This occurrence would directly cause the collapse of global markets that
depend on Middle Eastern resources, like the oil market, because investors will not trust the
stability of the oil resources when under the control of terrorist organizations or regimes that
support them. The hike in prices this could cause would have crippling effects on all
economies. Another detrimental impact of the Syrian War is the morphing of Syrian culture.
This does not pose as much of a threat as other aspects of the Syrian Civil War, but it is still
important to preserve Syrian culture as a tribute to humanity as a whole. Cultural heritage and
recognition for every culture in the world is becoming increasingly important as the world
becomes more unified, thus becoming similar. Every group is invaluable to the world because
of the insights the particular culture gives on the human condition. Without Syria's precious
culture, the world would have a piece missing in its own global culture. Though culture is
important, the most important and pressing reason why the Syrian Civil War needs to be
resolved is the fact that crisis in Syria is a human rights violation. The acceptance of the
actions of Bashar al-Assad by the international community is unacceptable. By refusing to
take definitive action, the international community has communicated the message of their
own indifference to similar regimes all around the world. Now, various other countries that
experience uprisings will be impelled to take action comparable to the perverse actions taken
by the Assad regime. This will cause pandemonium for international affairs, potentially
leading to wars that could have been prevented had the countries involved taken decisive

14
https://sites.google.com/site/thesyriancivilwar/impacts
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Syria Regional Refugee Response, November 17, 2013,
http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php, and United Nations, Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs, No Country for Syrias IDPs, July 19, 2013, http://www.wfp.org/content/no-countrysyrias-
idps.

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action earlier on. Refusing to act on this problem is a fickle solution, and, if the international
community continues on their current path, then Syria, and the rest of the world, will turn to
chaos.

AN END AT SIGHT!

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Possible Ends to the War

1) Bashar al-Assad resigns

If Bashar al-Assad resigns, then the Syrian government will be seized by the opposition,
which is what the opposition wanted to begin with. However, due to the animosity that the
Syrian people have accumulated against Bashar al-Assad, it is likely that they will wish to
seek revenge by killing him or making him leave the country. This outcome is ideal for the
opposition, but not for Bashar al-Assad. It will lead to instability as Syria strives to create a
new government.

2) Bashar al-Assad flees

If Assad flees, then the Syrian government will be seized by the opposition. However, unlike
the option above, the opposition will be almost powerless to seek revenge against Bashar al-
Assad. If extradition is possible, then they will probably have Assad on the terms that he
receives a fair trial. The more likely outcome of Assad fleeing is that he will live the rest of
his life in secrecy in another country and will never return to Syria. This outcome will create
instability because the opposition will have to create a completely new government.

3) Bashar al-Assad is killed

If Assad is killed, then the opposition will take control of Syria's government. This is ideal
for the opposition, and it will be considered an outcome of strategic military victory. Assad's
killers will most likely be venerated in Syria as the new government will be anti-Assad. This
will cause instability because the opposition will need to create a new government.

4) The Syrian opposition gives up

If conditions for the Syrian opposition forces become too difficult and they believe that they
have no chance to achieve victory, then they may give up fighting. This entails that the
Syrian people will again be ruled by Bashar al-Assad. Opposition fighters will be considered

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to have committed treasonous acts, and, more likely than not, many rebel fighters will be
killed or punished with imprisonment for their actions during the Syrian Civil War. This
outcome would be difficult, but more stable that the other outcomes above because they same
government that Syria has had for decades will remain in place.

5) The Syrian opposition captures Bashar al-Assad

Though similar to outcome number four, this outcome merely has Assad captured. Although
it is more likely that the opposition will kill Bashar al-Assad as soon as they can, there is still
a possibility that Assad will be captured. However, after being captured, Assad will probably
be killed by a rogue opposition member of by decree of a court in Syria. In any case, this
outcome leads to the opposition taking control of the Syrian government and will likely cause
instability as they will be required to establish a completely new government to govern the
country.

6) The Syrian opposition gains control of the country

Taking Assad completely out of the picture, it is still possible that the Syrian opposition can
gain control of the country through military actions, thus making Assad inconsequential. This
makes Syrian opposition the new controllers of government, and will likely lead to instability
as a new government is formed.

7) The Syrian opposition and Bashar al-Assad reach a compromise

Although unlikely, it is still possible that the war can be ended by Assad and the opposition
reaching a compromise. The terms of such a compromise are unknown, but it would most
likely keep Assad in office and take away most of his power. By giving power to the people,
the opposition would be satisfied, and Assad would be satisfied because he would be able to
remain president.

What Will Happen

Both sides of the conflict have made is clear that they will only accept total victory. Assad
will accept nothing less that Syria as it was before the war with himself as president. The
opposition wants Assad to be completely out of the picture so that a new, democratic

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government can be created for the people of Syria. Unfortunately, no side has been able to
come close to realizing that ideal, which is why the Syrian Civil War continues. Without the
involvement of the international community, death, destruction, and decimation will continue
to plague Syria for years to come. The people of Syria will be hurt more the longer this war
drags on, for the impacts of the war will be felt in Syria long after its end. It is therefore
immensely important that the international community interposes its beliefs in the conflict so
that they can see the party who they believe is right emerge as the true victor in Syria.

CONCLUSION
It is of the upmost importance that the international community do whatever they think is
right to end the Syrian Civil War. A united front behind one group has to be presented in
order to stop the conflict. Because a majority of countries have already gotten behind the
opposition, it is reasonable to implore that the entire international community support
opposition forces in Syria. That way, Bashar al-Assad will no longer be in control of Syria,
and, despite the potential instability of a new government, Syria will be bettered. It is now
vital that diplomats in charge of deciding international involvement in Syria demand action.
The U.N. is a perfect place to start putting pressure on Assad. In addition, countries can make
and encourage donations to the following organizations that support humanitarian efforts in
Syria while the war continues.

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