Optimal occupancy

Launceston accommodation is currently at 69% annual occupancy

Northern Tasmania is at 64% annual occupancy (YT June 16)
Recommended optimal occupancy is 75%
Generally allows for profitable industry allowing for seasonality..
..while providing a more visitor friendly environment
Application
Additional supply required calculated for each accommodation option where
demand growth scenario growth would exceed 75% occupancy at current supply

36
 Launceston Supply & Demand
Hold share outlook Hold Share Outlook: Dec 20
Launceston nights by month
Room nights to lift to 432k and an average Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

occupancy of 82% at current supply Month

Monthly room night Average
demand (000s) Occupancy
Though many months would be at 90% occupancy, with
February Full Jan 42 94%

Optimal occupancy of 75% yields a Feb

Mar
42
43
Full
96%
requirement of 1,605 rooms to Dec 20 Apr 39 90%
a shortfall of 159 rooms May 34 77%
The vast majority of room requirements are for hotels / Jun 29 67%
Jul 28 63%
resort accommodation
Aug 28 62%
Sep 32 74%
Oct 35 79%
Nov 39 90%
Dec 40 89%

Year to Dec 20
Available room nights (000s) 528
Room nights (000s) 432
Average occupancy (%) 82%
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 1,605
Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 159

37
 1.5m T21 Tas visitor target by 2020
Hold share: Tas visitors Inter & Inbound trips to Tas
All purposes of trip (millions) - 12MMT
Inter & Inbound Commercial trips
to Launceston
reach 1.35m by 2020 Derived by BDA from TVS / BDA AUSMO
All purposes of trip (000s) - 12MMT
16% growth in inbound &
Derived by BDA from TVS / BDA AUSMO

Actuals Target of
Forecast Actuals Forecast
interstate trips 1.7
= 1.50m trips
(+29% growth
500 T21 Target impact
for Launceston
1.50m Tas T21 Visitor to D20)
450
= 399k trips
to Dec 20
Target by 2020 1.5 (+29% growth)

+29% trips growth, an

400

1.3
additional +341 trips 350
From YT Sep 16 to Dec 20
Assuming Launceston holds 1.1 Hold Share
= 1.35m trips
300

(+16% growth to D20)

share of Tas demand 250 Hold Share =

399k trips and 29%

0.9 361k trips
(+17% growth to
200 D20)
growth to Dec 20 0.7
150

0.5
100
Dec 10
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09

Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20

Dec 11
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10

Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels,
Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins

Charts on separate scales.

38
 1.5m T21 Tas visitor target by 2020
T21 Target Launceston Room Nights T21 Target: Dec 20
Launceston nights by month
Total Trips - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
466k room nights by 2020 Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / BDA AUSMO Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW

Assuming room nights per trip remain Month

Monthly room night Average
demand (000s) Occupancy
constant T21 Target impact for
550 Jan 45 Full
Rate well ahead of Hold Share

Thousands
Launceston = 466k room
Feb 45 Full
expectations nights to Dec 20

Optimal occupancy of 75%

(+29% growth from Jun 16 Mar 46 Full
500 to Dec 20) Apr 42 97%
Yields a requirement of 1,717 rooms May 37 83%
at Dec 20... Jun 31 72%
a shortfall of 271 rooms
450
Jul 30 68%
Aug 30 67%
Sep 35 80%
400
Hold Oct 38 85%
Share Nov 42 98%
350 Dec 43 96%

Year to Dec 20
300 Available room nights (000s) 528
Room nights (000s) 466
Average occupancy (%) 88%
250
Dec 15

Dec 16

Dec 17

Dec 18

Dec 19

Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 1,717
Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 271

39
 Launceston share scenario
Interstate scenario
Hold Share scenario = 0.9%
Launceston maintains current market
Launceston commercial Launceston commercial inbound
interstate performance performance
All purposes (% of Aus interstate trips) - 12MMT All purposes (% of Aus inbound trips) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO

share of national interstate demand

Actuals Forecast Actuals Forecast
Share gain scenario 1.4
1.4
Launceston lifts market share at
same rate over the past 3 years Share
Share
1.2 Scenario 1
= 0.97% to Dec 20 = 0.97% to
1.2 Scenario 1
= 0.98% to
Inbound scenario 1.0
Dec 20
Dec 20

Hold Share scenario = 0.7%

1.0

Launceston maintains current market 0.8 0.8

share of national inbound demand Hold Share =
Share gain scenario 0.6
Current interstate
0.86% to Dec 20
0.6
share = 0.86% to
Launceston lifts market share at Sep 16
Hold Share =
0.71% to Dec 20
same rate over the past 3 years
0.4 0.4
= 0.98% to Dec 20 Current inbound
share = 0.71% to
Sep 16
0.2 0.2

0.0 0.0
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20

Dec 13
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12

Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial
accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments,
40 Rental Accommodation, Cabins. Market Share figures expressed as a share of total Aus demand.
 Launceston share scenario outcome
Launceston commercial Share Scenario: Dec 20
Should Launceston room nights
Total nights - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Launceston nights by month
Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW

continue to gain share Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 /
BDA AUSMO / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Monthly room night Average
At the same rate as over the
Share Scenario 1 Month
500 demand (000s) Occupancy
= 485k to Dec 20

Thousands
Jan 47 Full
past 3 years..
47 Full
..commercial room nights
480 Feb
Mar 48 Full
would climb to 485k 460 Apr 44 Full
Assuming commercial room nights / May 39 86%
440 Jun 33 75%
trip remain constant
Rooms shortfall would be 420
Jul
Aug
32
31
71%
70%
335, at optimal occupancy Hold share room Sep 36 84%
400
nights Oct 40 88%
= 432k to Dec 20 Nov 44 Full
380 (+19% from J16- Dec 45 Full
D20)
360
Year to Dec 20
340
Available room nights (000s) 528

320 Room nights (000s) 485

Average occupancy (%) 92%

300
Dec 15

Dec 16

Dec 17

Dec 18

Dec 19

Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 1,781

Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 335

Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope
commercial accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Note: All purposes demand refers to trips taken for any purpose of trip, including
Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins 41 holidays, visiting friends and relatives, business, conference and other purposes
 Launceston +1.5% growth scenario
Note: Charts on separate scales.

Tasmania: intrastate demand Tasmania: interstate demand Tasmania inbound demand

All purposes (visitors millions) - 12MMT All purposes (visitors 000s) - 12MMT All purposes (visitors 000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS Derived by BDA from TVS Derived by BDA from TVS 13.3%
+2.8%
1.6 +6.7%
+10.4% +0.1% 1050 +3.9% 190 +8.0
+20.8%
1.4 -1.0%
950 170

850 150
1.2

750 130
1.0
650 110

0.8 550 90
Mar 12

Mar 13

Mar 14

Mar 15

Mar 16
Sep 11
Dec 11

Sep 12
Dec 12

Sep 13
Dec 13

Sep 14
Dec 14

Sep 15
Dec 15

Sep 16
Jun 12

Jun 13

Jun 14

Jun 15

Jun 16

Mar 12

Mar 13

Mar 14

Mar 15

Mar 16
Dec 11

Dec 12

Dec 13

Dec 14

Dec 15
Sep 11

Sep 12

Sep 13

Sep 14

Sep 15

Sep 16
Jun 12

Jun 13

Jun 14

Jun 15

Jun 16
Mar 12

Mar 13

Mar 14

Mar 15

Mar 16
Sep 11
Dec 11

Sep 12
Dec 12

Sep 13
Dec 13

Sep 14
Dec 14

Sep 15
Dec 15

Sep 16
Jun 12

Jun 13

Jun 14

Jun 15

Jun 16
Intrastate Annual growth Interstate Annual growth Inbound Annual growth
3 year +1.5% 3 year +1.5% 3 year +1.5%
Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep 16
avg Scenario avg Scenario avg Scenario

-1.0% 10.4% 0.1% 3.1% 4.6% 3.9% 6.7% 2.8% 4.5% 6.0% 20.8% 8.0% 13.3% 14.0% 15.5%

Over the past 3 years, Tasmania has enjoyed solid growth overall, particularly from interstate & inbound, with annual growth
averaging 6% & 11.6% respectively. However, intrastate visitor growth to Tasmania has slowed to now be steady year on year.
The +1.5% Growth Scenario above the 3 year average results in +4.6% annual gains for intrastate demand, +6% for interstate &
+15.5% for inbound out to 2020.

42
 Launceston +1.5% growth scenario
Launceston commercial +1.5% Growth Scenario: Dec 20
An additional 1.5% room nights
Total nights - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Launceston nights by month
Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW

annual growth.. Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 /

BDA AUSMO / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Monthly room night Average
..in Tas demand (above the 550
Month
demand (000s) Occupancy
+1.5% Growth Jan 49 Full
3 year Tas average).. Scenario
.would result in 501k room = 501k to Dec 20 Feb 48 Full
500
Mar 50 Full
nights in Launceston Apr 45 Full
Assuming Launceston holds share of 450 May 40 89%
Tas and commercial room nights per Jun 34 77%
trip remain constant Jul 33 73%

387 additional rooms 400 Aug

Sep
32
37
72%
86%
required Oct 41 91%
At 75% optimal occupancy 350 Hold share Nights
= 432k to Dec 20
Nov 46 Full
Dec 46 Full
(+19% from J16-D20)
300
Year to Dec 20

Available room nights (000s) 528

250
Room nights (000s) 501

Average occupancy (%) 95%

200
Dec 15

Dec 16

Dec 17

Dec 18

Dec 19

Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 1,833

Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 387

43
 Launceston Summary
Launceston Trips Launceston Room Nights
Hold Share base Total Trips - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS / BDA AUSMO
Total nights- All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

scenario for Launcn 650

Thousands
+1.5% Growth +1.5% Growth
+14% growth in trip demand 600
Scenario
Share 500
Scenario
Share
Scenario
to yield 432k room nights Scenario

Strongest growth from 550

T21 Target 1.5m 450 T21 Target 1.5m
+1.5% Growth Scenario visitors visitors
500
Lifts
room nights by +33% from
Sep 16 to Dec 20 to 1.22m 400
450 Hold Share Hold Share

350
400

350 300
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20

Dec 18
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18

Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20
Trips (000s) Sep 16 Dec 20 Growth Room Nights Growth
(S16-D20)
Sep 16 Dec 20
(000s) (S16-D20)

Hold Share 441 505 14.4% Hold Share 378 432 14.2%
Tas 1.5m Visitor Target 544 23.1% Tas 1.5m Visitor Target 466 23.2%
Share Gains 569 28.8% Share Gains 485 28.4%

+1.5% 3 year growth 589 33.4% +1.5% 3 year growth 501 32.6%

44
 Launceston room requirement 75%
More rooms required Launceston Room Requirement 75%
Under all scenarios
Room numbers at 75% occupancy - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

To accommodate optimal occupancy 2,000

of 75% +1.5% Growth Scenario
Share Scenario
For strongest scenario..
1,900
1,800 T21 Target 1.5m visitors
+1.5% growth above the 3 year
growth average 1,700
Hold Share
.. an additional 387 rooms is 1,600
Current supply
required to meet demand 1,500

If Tas gains share as it has in 1,400

the last 3 years.. 1,300

..335 rooms are required 1,200

Dec 16

Dec 17

Dec 18

Dec 19

Dec 20
Jun 16

Jun 17

Jun 18

Jun 19

Jun 20
For the T21 Target, 271
rooms are required
For hold share 159 rooms Rooms Required
Current
supply
Dec 20 Addition

are required Hold Share 1,446 1,605 +159

T21 Target 1,717 +271

Share Gains 1,781 +335

+1.5% 3 year growth 1,833 +387

45
 Launceston room / type requirement
Launceston room requirements x accommodation type 75% optimal occupancy
Room requirements x accommodation type
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

Hotels/resorts represent Hold Share Outlook Share Scenario Outlook

J16 D18 D20 J16 D18 D20
majority of requirement Type Type

With up to +324 hotel rooms at D20 Hotel / Resort +0 +102 +152 Hotel / Resort +0 +165 +285
Motel +0 +0 +0 Motel +0 +0 +0
for +1.5% Growth Scenario
Little or no additional requirement
Serviced Apart. +0 +0 +4 Serviced Apart. +0 +6 +18
Rental +0 +0 +1 Rental +0 +3 +19
for more motels & cabins Cabin +0 +0 +0 Cabin +0 +0 +3
B&B +0 +0 +1 B&B +0 +2 +11
TOTAL +0 +102 +159 TOTAL +0 +176 +335

T21 Target Outlook +1.5% Growth Scenario Outlook

Type J16 D18 D20 Type J16 D18 D20

Hotel / Resort +0 +136 +236 Hotel / Resort +0 +167 +324

Motel +0 +0 +0 Motel +0 +0 +0

Serviced Apart. +0 +3 +13 Serviced Apart. +0 +6 +21

Rental +0 +0 +13 Rental +0 +4 +24

Cabin +0 +0 +2 Cabin +0 +1 +4

B&B +0 +0 +7 B&B +0 +2 +14

TOTAL +0 +139 +271 TOTAL +0 +179 +387

Room split by accommodation type assumes current

demand breakdown by Type is maintained. 46
 Launc: Impact of additional supply
108 hotel rooms are currently Launceston Room Requirement 75%
Room numbers at 75% occupancy - 12MMT
under construction (Silos) Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

Further additional development is 2,000 +1.5% Growth

required to meet all scenario demand Scenario
1,900
out to 2020 Share
Scenario
Minimum of an additional +51 rooms for 1,800
T21 Target
the Hold Share Scenario Supply already under 1.5m visitors

Largest requirement for +1.5% 3 year

1,700 construction or DA
Approved
growth scenario of +279 rooms 1,600 Hold Share

1,500 Current supply

1,400

1,300

Dec 20 Room Current Required New Devt

Supply Gap 1,200
Requirements supply supply Supply Gap

Hold Share 1,446 1,605 +159 +51

1,100 Jun 16

Dec 16

Jun 17

Dec 17

Jun 18

Dec 18

Jun 19

Dec 19

Jun 20

Dec 20
T21 Target 1,717 +271 +163

Share Gains 1,781 +335 +227

+1.5% 3 year growth 1,833 +387 +279

47
Northern Tasmania supply & demand

Hold Share outlook

Supply & demand
Scenario development
Demand outlook summary
Trips, room nights & additional room requirements
Accommodation requirements x type

48
 Northern Tasmania commercial outlook
Commercial demand to Northern Tasmania commercial visitor demand
lift in line with total trips Interstate, intrastate & Inbound demand All purposes (millions) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / BDA AUSMO / Tiger Tour / ATDW

Assuming that Northern Tas Northern Tasmania Commercial Northern Tasmania

commercial demand holds Trip Demand Room nights
share national demand 0.7 Total Trips
= 589k to Dec 20

Thousands

Thousands
That is, share that Northern Tasmania (+14% growth) 800 722k room nights to Dec 20
commercial trips take of forecast 0.6 (+23% from J16-D20)
national demand is held constant Total Trips
= 515k to Sep 16
Current Northern Tasmania share*: 0.5 700
Interstate = 1.02%,
Inbound = 0.80%, 0.4
Intrastate = 0.25% Interstate & 600

The outlook is for 14% trips

inbound
0.3 588k room nights
growth to Dec 20 Interstate
500 to Jun 16
(ABS 8635.0)
Lifting from 515k to 589k trips to D20 0.2
Intrastate
Room nights assumed to 400
0.1
grow at the same rate
i.e.assumes nights in Northern Tas 0.0
Inbound
300
per trip remains constant
Dec 14
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13

Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20

Dec 15

Dec 16

Dec 17

Dec 18

Dec 19

Dec 20
Outlook is for 722k Northern
Tas room nights by 2020 Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs,
Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins.

Note: Interstate share derived by dividing Interstate trips Northern Tasmania from the TVS by
Aus interstate trips from the NVS. Inbound share derived by dividing Inbound trips to Northern
49 Tasmania from the TVS by Aus inbound trips from the IVS. Intrastate share derived by dividing
Intrastate trips in Northern Tasmania from the NVS by Aus intrastate trips from the NVS.
Northern Tasmania Supply & Demand
Hold share outlook Hold Share Outlook: Dec 20
Northern Tasmania nights by month
Room night demand to grow to 722k Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

=79% occupancy at current supply Monthly room night Average

2,688 rooms would be required to
Month
demand (000s) Occupancy

Jan 72 93%
accommodate this demand.. Feb 71 Full
..at 75% occupancy Mar 74 95%
Hence, the additional requirement is188 Apr 66 88%
May 57 73%
rooms 2020 Jun 46 61%
Jul 47 61%
Aug 45 58%
Sep 53 71%
Oct 60 77%
Nov 65 86%
Dec 66 85%

Year to Dec 20
Available room nights (000s) 913
Room nights (000s) 722
Average occupancy (%) 79%
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 2,688
Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 188

50
 1.5m Tas visitor target by 2020
Hold share: Tas visitors
reach 1.35m by 2020
16% growth in inbound &
Inter & Inbound trips to Tas
All purposes of trip (millions) - 12MMT
Inter & Inbound commercial trips to
Northern Tasmania
Derived by BDA from TVS / BDA AUSMO
All purposes of trip (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / BDA AUSMO

Target of 550 Tas T21 Visitor Target

interstate trips 1.7
= 1.50m trips
(+29% growth
impact for Northern Tas =
467k trips to Dec 20
500
1.50m Tas T21 Visitor to D20) (+29% growth)

Target by 2020 1.5 450

+29% trips growth, an 400

1.3
additional +341 trips Hold Share =
350
From YT Sep 16 to Dec 20 421k trips

Assuming Northern Tas 1.1 Hold Share (+17% growth to

= 1.35m trips 300 D20)
(+16% growth to D20)
holds share of Tas demand
467k trips and 29%
0.9 250

growth to Dec 20 0.7

200

150

0.5
100
Dec 10
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09

Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20

Dec 15
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14

Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels,
Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins

51
 1.5m Tas T21 visitor target by 2020
Tas T21 Visitor Target Northern Tasmania Room Nights Tas T21 Visitor Target: Dec 20
Northern Tasmania nights by month
Total Trips - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
781k room nights by 2020 Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO / ABS 8635.0 Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW

Assuming room nights per trip remain Month

Monthly room night Average
demand (000s) Occupancy
constant Tas T21 Visitor Target impact
Rate well ahead of Hold Share for Northern Tasmania Jan 78 Full
850 = 781k nights to Dec 20 Feb 77 Full
expectations

Thousands
(+33% growth from Jun 16)
Optimal occupancy of 75%
Mar 80 Full
800 Apr 72 96%
Yields a requirement of 2,886 rooms May 61 79%
at Dec 20... 750
Jun 49 66%
a shortfall of 386 rooms 700 Jul 51 66%
Aug 49 63%
650 Sep 57 77%
Hold Oct 65 84%
600 Share
Nov 70 93%
Dec 71 92%
550
Year to Dec 20
500
Available room nights (000s) 913

450 Room nights (000s) 781

Average occupancy (%) 86%
400
2,886
Dec 15
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy
Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 386

52
 Northern Tasmania share scenario
Interstate scenario
Hold Share scenario = 1.0%
Northern Tas holds current market %
Northern Tasmania commercial Northern Tasmania commercial
interstate performance inbound performance
All purposes (% of Aus interstate trips) - 12MMT All purposes (% of Aus inbound trips) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO

Share gain scenario Actuals Forecast Actuals Forecast

Northern Tas lifts market share at
1.5 1.4
same rate over the past 3 years
= 1.13% to Dec 20 Share

Inbound scenario 1.3

Share
Scenario 1 1.2
Scenario 1
= 1.06% to
Hold Share scenario = 0.8% = 1.13% to
Dec 20
Dec 20

Northern Tas holds current market % 1.0

Share gain scenario 1.1
Northern Tas lifts market share at 0.8
same rate over the past 3 years
= 1.06% to Dec 20 0.9 Hold Share = Hold Share =
1.02% to Dec 20 0.80% to Dec 20
0.6
Current interstate
Current inbound share =
share = 1.02% to
0.7 0.80% to Sep16
Sep 16
0.4

0.5 0.2
Dec 15
Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14

Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20

Dec 07
Dec 08
Dec 09
Dec 10
Dec 11
Dec 12
Dec 13
Dec 14
Dec 15
Dec 16
Dec 17
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial
accommodation i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments,
53 Rental Accommodation, Cabins. Market Share figures expressed as a share of total Aus demand.
 Northern Tas share scenario outcome
Northern Tasmania commercial Share Scenario: Dec 20
Should Northern room nights
Total nights - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Northern Tasmania nights by month
Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW

continue to gain share Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / BDA AUSMO /
Tiger Tour / ATDW
Monthly room night Average
At the same rate as over the 900 Month
demand (000s) Occupancy

Thousands
Share Scenario 1 Jan 81 Full
past 3 years.. 850 = 807k to Dec 20 79 Full
..commercial room nights
Feb
Mar 82 Full
800
would climb to 807k Apr 74 99%
Assuming commercial room nights / May 63 82%
750
trip remain constant Jun 51 68%

Rooms shortfall would be 700

Jul
Aug
53
50
68%
65%
472, at optimal occupancy 650 Hold share Nights
Sep 59 79%
= 722k to Dec 20 Oct 67 86%
600 (+23% from J16-D20) Nov 72 97%
Dec 74 95%
550
Year to Dec 20
500
Available room nights (000s) 913

450 Room nights (000s) 807

Average occupancy (%) 88%

400
Dec 15

Dec 16

Dec 17

Dec 18

Dec 19

Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 2,972

Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 472

Note: Commercial trips refer to those trips where the visitor stays in any in scope commercial accommodation i.e.
Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins All
purposes demand refers to trips taken for any purpose of trip, including holidays, visiting friends and relatives,
business, conference and other purposes
54
 Northern Tas +1.5% growth scenario
Northern Tasmania commercial +1.5% Growth Scenario: Dec 20
An additional 1.5% room nights
Total nights - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Northern Tasmania nights by month
Derived by BDA from ABS 8635.0 / TVS / NVS / Tiger Tour / ATDW

annual growth.. Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 /

BDA AUSMO / Tiger Tour / ATDW
Monthly room night Average
..in Tas demand (above the 900 +1.5% Growth
Month
demand (000s) Occupancy

Thousands
Jan 85 Full
3 year Tas average).. Scenario
= 843k to Dec 20 83 Full
.would result in 501k room
850 Feb
Mar 86 Full
nights in Norther Tas 800 Apr 77 Full
Assuming Northern holds share of May 66 85%
750 Jun 53 71%
Tas and commercial room nights per
trip remain constant Jul 55 71%
700
592 additional rooms
Aug 52 68%
Sep 62 83%
650
required Hold share Nights
= 722k to Dec 20
Oct 70 90%
At 75% optimal occupancy 600 (+23% from J16-D20) Nov 76 Full
Dec 77 Full

550
Year to Dec 20
500
Available room nights (000s) 913

450 Room nights (000s) 843

Average occupancy (%) 92%

400
Dec 15

Dec 16

Dec 17

Dec 18

Dec 19

Dec 20
Required rooms at 75% occupancy 3,092

Rooms Shortfall at 75% occupancy 592

55
 Northern Tasmania Summary
Hold Share base
Northern Tasmania Trips Northern Tasmania Room Nights
Total Trips - All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / BDA AUSMO
Total nights- All purposes (000s) - 12MMT
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour /

scenario for North Tas 800

ATDW / BDA AUSMO

Thousands
+14% growth in trip demand
900 +1.5% Growth
750 +1.5% Growth Scenario Share
Scenario Share Scenario
to yield 722k room nights 700
Scenario
800
Strongest outlook for +1.5% Tas T21 Visitor
Target 1.5m
Tas T21
Visitor Target
650
Growth Scenario visitors
700
1.5m visitors

Lifts
room nights by +34% from 600
Hold Share
Sep 16 to Dec 20 to 843k 550 Hold Share 600

500
500
450

400 400
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19
Dec 19
Jun 20
Dec 20

Dec 19
Jun 16
Dec 16
Jun 17
Dec 17
Jun 18
Dec 18
Jun 19

Jun 20
Dec 20
Trips (000s) Sep 16 Dec 20 Growth Room Nights Growth
(S16-D20)
Sep 16 Dec 20
(000s) (S16-D20)

Hold Share 515 589 14.3% Hold Share 629 722 14.8%
Stakeholder Target 635 23.1% Stakeholder Target 781 24.2%
Share Gains 654 26.9% Share Gains 807 28.3%
+1.5% 3 year growth 686 33.1% +1.5% 3 year growth 843 34.0%

56
 Northern Tasmania Summary 75%
occ. Northern Tasmania Room Requirement 75%
Room supply currently Room numbers at 75% occupancy - 12MMT
meeting demands 3,500
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

Supply constraints take 3,300 +1.5% Growth Scenario

effect in 2017 3,100 Share Scenario

For strongest scenario.. 2,900 T21 Target 1.5m visitors

+1.5% growth above the 3 year 2,700
Hold Share
growth average 2,500

an additional 592 rooms is 2,300 Current supply

2,100
required to meet demand 1,900
If Tas gains share as it has in 1,700
the last 3 years.. 1,500

..472 rooms are required

Dec 20
Jun 16

Dec 16

Jun 17

Dec 17

Jun 18

Dec 18

Jun 19

Dec 19

Jun 20
For the T21 Target, 386
rooms are required Rooms Required
Current
supply
Dec 20 Supply Gap

For hold share 188 rooms Hold Share 2,500 2,688 +188

are required T21 Target 2,886 +386

Share Gains 2,972 +472

+1.5% 3 year growth 3,092 +592

57
 Northern Tas room / type requirement
Northern Tasmania room requirements x accommodation type 75% optimal occupancy
Room requirements x accommodation type
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

Hotels/resorts represent Hold Share Outlook Share Scenario Outlook

J16 D18 D20 J16 D18 D20
majority of requirement Type Type

With up to +432 hotel rooms at D20 Hotel / Resort +0 +91 +167 Hotel / Resort +0 +179 +354
Motel +0 +0 +0 Motel +0 +0 +0
for +1.5% Growth Scenario
Rentals next highest category,
Serviced Apart. +0 +0 +0 Serviced Apart. +0 +1 +12
Rental +0 +0 +10 Rental +0 +13 +52
though well behind hotels / resorts Cabin +0 +0 +4 Cabin +0 +5 +23
No additional requirements for B&B +0 +0 +6 B&B +0 +7 +31
motels within Northern Tasmania TOTAL +0 +91 +188 TOTAL +0 +206 +472

T21 Target Outlook +1.5% Growth Scenario Outlook

Type J16 D18 D20 Type J16 D18 D20

Hotel / Resort +0 +143 +298 Hotel / Resort +0 +191 +432

Motel +0 +0 +0 Motel +0 +0 +0

Serviced Apart. +0 +0 +9 Serviced Apart. +0 +2 +17

Rental +0 +5 +40 Rental +0 +16 +70

Cabin +0 +2 +17 Cabin +0 +7 +30

B&B +0 +3 +23 B&B +0 +9 +41

TOTAL +0 +152 +386 TOTAL +0 +225 +592

Room split by accommodation type assumes current

demand breakdown by Type is maintained. 58
 Nth Tas: Impact of additional supply
108 hotel rooms are currently Northern Tasmania Room Requirement 75%
Room numbers at 75% occupancy - 12MMT
under construction (Silos) 3,500
Derived by BDA from TVS / NVS / ABS 8635.0 / Tiger Tour / ATDW / BDA AUSMO

Region still requires additional rooms to +1.5% Growth

3,300
2020 under all scenarios Scenario

Share
3,100 Scenario
Supply already under
construction or DA T21 Target 1.5m
2,900
Approved visitors

2,700 Hold Share

2,500
Current supply
2,300

2,100

Dec 20 Room Current Required New Devt 1,900

Supply Gap
Requirements supply supply Supply Gap

Hold Share 2,500 2,688 +188 +80

1,700
T21 Target 2,886 +386 +278

Share Gains 2,972 +472 +364 1,500

Dec 18
Jun 16

Dec 16

Jun 17

Dec 17

Jun 18

Jun 19

Dec 19

Jun 20

Dec 20
+1.5% 3 year growth 3,092 +592 +484

59
Key indications (1)

Tourism demand growing strongly at a national level

Inbound demand is particularly strong but domestic demand is also growing
solidly and competing more strongly now with outbound travel
Tas and Launceston / Northern Tasmania have also grown very
strongly in the last 3-4 years
Huge growth in interstate holiday demand has delivered the biggest volume lift
Rapid growth rate starting to slow now
Inbound demand is very strong, in line with national demand
Intrastate demand has turned down in recent times
Strong growth has also been observed from high spending visitors
to Tasmania and Launceston / Northern Tasmania
Visitors to Launceston / Northern Tas who spend more than $2k in Tas have
grown by ~50% in the last 3 years
Much stronger growth than lower spending groups

60
Key indications (2)
Demand for accommodation in Launceston and Northern Tas is
growing strongly with overall regional visitation
Northern Tasmania is up to 64% annual occupancy, Launceston at 69% (YT June 16)
Revenue per room night available is also increasing rapidly
More rooms are required in Launceston / Northern Tasmania
Under all demand growth scenarios and allowing for occupancy to lift further to 75%
The achievement of the T21 Target (if the region holds share) would see an
additional 386 rooms required by 2020 in Northern Tas, 271 in Launceston
More rooms required under other demand scenarios
Recent growth +1.5% would require an additional 592 rooms in Northern Tas & 387 in Launceston
Continued share gains would require 472 rooms in Northern Tas and 335 in Launceston

The vast majority of the requirement is in hotel accommodation

108 rooms are currently under construction / DA approved in
Launceston / Northern Tasmania
This additional supply will not meet the requirements at 2020, especially for the
stronger demand scenarios

61
Appendix

Return on investment
Northern Tasmania room supply
Scope
Room night demand
Determining regional room nights
Hold Share outlook
Demand scenarios
Data sources

62
 Aus hotel returns
Aus hotel returns = 17.2% to Sep 16 Total returns for Australia Hotel Property Index
Small decline over the past year now just Annualised returns Source: MSCI
levelling off to Sep 16
Income return has remained relatively
steady at around 8%
Capital return more variable, though still well
up on levels seen in 2013

Note: Chart is sourced from the report: The Property Council / IPD
Australia Quarterly Hotel Property Index. The index is described as
tracking investment performance of 60 hotel assets worth ~$4b.

63
Northern Tasmania definitions
Classification of Launceston and Northern Tasmania regions:
Launceston
TVS: Launceston City & Lilydale
NVS: Invermay, Kings Meadows Punchbowl, Launceston, Maybray, Newnham
Mayfield, Newstead, Norwood, Prospect Vale Blackstone, Ravenswood, South
Launceston, Summerhill Prospect, Travallyn Waverley St Leonards, West
Launceston, Youngtown - Relbia
Northern Tasmania Region
Defined in TVS as Total Northern Tasmania. Defined in the NVS as Launceston,
Tamar and the North

64
Northern Tasmania room supply
Accommodation supply data provided by Tourism Tasmania via the
Australian Tourism Data Warehouse (ATDW) & Tiger Tour
Operators within the Northern Tasmania & Launceston regions were identified within
the ATDW data, in accordance to regional the definitions
ATDW didnt provide the number of rooms, as previously reported within Tiger Tour
To derive room supply volumes, accommodation reported within the ATDW database was aligned to the
Tiger Tour database (to March 2016)
For those properties within the ATDW database that could not be identified within Tiger Tour, an
independent internet search was undertaken to derive room volumes for each property and to confirm the
type of accommodation provided (hotel, motel, apartment etc.)
In some cases, some of properties reported in 2016 Tiger Tour were not reported within the ATDW. Where
these variations were identified, each property was investigated to determine if they were still available for
booking and if so, were subsequently added to the final room volume

65
Accommodation scope
Accommodation scope
To allow for a volume of rooms required to be provided as the primary output of
the analysis..
..accommodation included is Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest
Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rental Accommodation, Cabins
Backpackers, Caravan Park sites and Residential Colleges were excluded
As these properties have a different room structure
Some duplications existed in the data where a property was classified under
various different accommodation types
Duplications were resolved by referring to the property name
Property type is derived from property name, for example The Beach Apartments is classified as
Apartments not Self Contained accommodation
Any property including backpacker was classified accordingly, for example The Brunswick Hotel
The Tassie Backpackers = backpacker accommodation and therefore was not included
Any subsequent duplication was dealt with on a case by case basis, with reference to property
website and/or booking websites

66
Room night demand
ABS accommodation survey applied as the primary source of demand
The data is sourced directly from accommodation providers
The survey includes room numbers, room nights and occupancy rates for Hotels,
Motels and Serviced Apartments in Launceston and Northern Tasmania
The survey includes establishments with 15 rooms or more, though splits for accommodation types are
not provided for the Launceston area
This survey is now reported annually, YT June 2016 is the last data point available
The room supply numbers from the ABS for YT June 2016 are 1,126 for
Launceston and 1,803 for Northern Tasmania
This represents a 78% of Launceston room supply and 72% of Northern Tasmania
room supply (as per the total rooms reported in the ATDW & Tiger Tour data)
Launceston defined as Launceston (no further splits available in the data)
Northern Tasmania data was defined as Launceston, Tamar and the North

67
 Determining regional room nights
Applying the ABS data
While the rooms volume (and therefore room nights) are understated due to
incomplete coverage of the entire market..
..the occupancy is representative of a large proportion of total accommodation supply
Hence, these occupancy rates can be applied to Tiger Tour supply volumes to
provide an estimate of total room nights
Assumptions
That average occupancy rates at all establishments reported in the ATDW & Tiger
Tour data are consistent with those reported in the ABS accommodation survey
That the ATDW & Tiger Tour data supplied is applicable to ABS data for the
YT June 2016
Resulting room nights
Average annual occupancy as reported by ABS is 64% for Northern Tasmania and
69% for Launceston in YT June 16
Applied to 2,500 rooms in Northern Tasmania = 912,500 annual room nights
Applied to 1,446 rooms in Launceston = 527,790 annual room nights

68
 Hold share outlook
Hold share outlook
The hold share outlook for Tasmania assumes that the state holds its current market
share of national demand as forecast by BDAs AUSMO model
The AUSMO model is an econometric forecasting model which applies historical relationships of economic
factors to tourism demand and projects these relationships into the future on the basis of economic forecasts
in order to forecast national tourism demand
Tasmanias current share of national demand is 3.4% of interstate, 2.8% of inbound, 2.1% of Intrastate

The hold share outlook for Northern Tasmania and Launceston applies the same
process where the regional demand outlook is projected on the basis of holding
current share of national demand
For the purposes of this analysis Launceston demand has been expressed in terms of commercial trips,
this refer to those trips where the visitor (non-edu visitor) stays in any in scope commercial accommodation
i.e. Hotels, Motels, Resorts, B&Bs, Lodges, Guest Houses, Serviced Apartments, Rentals, Cabins
Commercial trips to Northern Tasmania currently account for the following shares of total national demand:
1.02% of interstate, 0.8% of inbound, 0.25% of Intrastate
Commercial trips to Launceston currently account for the following shares of total national demand: 0.86%
of interstate, 0.71% of inbound, 0.21% of Intrastate
Where noted in the report All purposes demand refers to trips taken for any purpose
Including holidays, visiting friends and relatives, business, conference and other purposes

69
 Demand scenarios

Hold share scenario Share gain scenario

Demand outlook for Launceston / Demand outlook for Launceston /
Northern Tas if the region holds share of Northern Tas if growth in share
national forecast tourism demand observed over the last 3 years
As per explanation on slide 69 continues to 2020
Assumes Launceston / Northern Tas share
T21 Visitor Target
of national interstate and inbound trips
Demand outlook for Launceston / continues to grow at the same rate of the last
Northern Tas if demand for the region 3 years
grows in line with Tasmanias T21 Target 1.5% growth scenario
Assumes commercial demand in Launceston /
Northern Tas grows at the same rate required for
Demand outlook for Launceston /
Tasmania to grow to 1.5m visitors by 2020 Northern Tas if annual growth rate to
2020 is equivalent to average
annual growth in the last 3 years +
1.5%
Note: Reference to trips throughout this report refers to a
single visit to Launceston / Tasmania. A single individual may
make multiple trips within an observed period.

70
 Sources
Sources
Throughout the report the following sources are used:
Interstate and Inbound demand for Tasmania is sourced from the Tasmanian Visitor Survey
Intrastate demand for Tasmania and Interstate and Interstate and Intrastate demand for Australia is
sourced from the National Visitor Survey
Inbound demand for Australia is sourced from the International Visitor Survey and the Australian Bureau of
Statistics
Accommodation demand is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics

Regional accommodation supply data is sourced from the ATDW and room supply is matched to Tiger Tour
to Mar 16
Hotel return on investment data is sourced from IPD

Economic data is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia and
Australian Stock Exchange
Consumer confidence data is sourced from Roy Morgan Research

Airline supply data is sourced from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics

Tourism Tasmania has also supplied T21 Visitor Target volumes, future international air access & future
accommodation development

71
 BDA MARKETING PLANNING PTY LTD. ABN 31 572 250 601
LEVEL 6, 607 ST KILDA ROAD, MELBOURNE, VICTORIA 3004, AUSTRALIA
TEL +61 3 9514 1400 FAX +61 3 9525 2199 bda@bdamarketing.com.au www.bdamarketing.com.au