Philippine Equity Research

Nov 9, 2017
Focus Items
Issue Highlight Page
Decision time A challenge to resistance highs 2
DOW Hold (watch support stop) 3
PSEi Range Trade or Hold to stop 4
MSCI Phils EPHE Range Trade or Hold to stop 5
Issue Previous Current Change % YTD % PHI Range Trade (to resistance) 6
Philippines 8,522 8,508 (13.32) (0.16) 24.38
Peso-$ 51.33 51.3 (0.030) (0.06) 3.18 DAYS HIGLIGHTS
MSCI Phils 37.42 37.67 0.25 0.67 16.27 US market were little higher; Europe was mixed
PLDT US 32.94 32.88 (0.060) (0.18) 19.35 Asia was mostly lower; smog embattled India slides again
DJIA 23,557 23,563 6.13 0.03 19.23 The US Dollar inches down, Gold rallies but Oil slip
SP500 2,591 2,594 3.74 0.14 15.88
The Philippine PSEi edges down 13-pts; the Peso-Dollar swings
Nasdaq 6,768 6,789 21.34 0.32 26.12 to 51.30
England 7,513 7,530 16.61 0.22 5.42
Nikkei 22,938 22,914 (23.78) (0.10) 19.88 PSEi Trend Watcher: Up
Hong Kong 28,994 28,908 (86.74) (0.30) 31.39
Notes: PSEi narrows its daily range, setting up for a decision
China 3,414 3,415 1.89 0.06 10.05
The PSEi ducked in 13-pts and had daily range narrow in the last
US 30yr Bond 153.76 153.46 (0.30) (0.20) 2.44
two days. This points to price compression which may be telling
10-Yr Yield 2.307 2.325 0.018 0.78 (4.95)
us that a fresh swing out of its range in the last few days is
Dollar Indx 94.8 94.77 (0.03) (0.03) (7.35)
imminent. As such we have to be aware of the possibilities a
Gold 1,275.80 1,283.70 7.90 0.62 11.46 push over resistance may allow for a little more continuation
Oil 57.2 56.81 (0.39) (0.68) 5.75 swings. A shift below its 2-3 day lows would herald more
CRB Index 191.85 191.81 (0.04) (0.02) (0.36) pullbacks and corrective drives. This should keep traders on the
edge of their seats once again. Look over issues sporting descent
Authored by:
technical patterns and make sure setups propose good risk-
Juanis G. Barredo
reward. We continue to be watchful of US market action despite
VP; Chief Technical Analyst
some upward swings continuing. The Volatility index ($VIX from
COL Financial Group Inc.
www.stockcharts.com) coming from its lows showing
Juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com
complacency along with the diverging swing of the Dow Transport
Disclaimer: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COLs Equity Research Dept as of the
index ($TRAN) and the Russell 2000 index ($RUT) should be
date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The report is for informational purposes only raising some degree of concern
and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.
 Tech Spotlight --- Page 2
Decision time: A challenge to resistance highs
All wound up, will we Push or Pullback?
Its high time for some stocks as they
come to work on challenging resistance
bands
A push over such resistance areas may
inspire some brief upside action and
may open some jab space for traders;
this is more especially seen if the issue
sported some winding motions before
the possible resistance break (as some
issues shown like AC, BD, MPI, SMPH
and PXP)
Those that have swung up to
resistance and show some stretch (like
ALI) may have a little harder time and
could be why it was sold off
The PSEi as well is also winding in just
below its recent highs and may have to
make a similar decision on whether to
push or pull; in fact the last two days
have seen the intraday range narrow
which also drives the point of
compacted area ready to make a
decision
If resistance wins then pullbacks may
be in store for many more issues
playing out an important decision into
the next few days
Keep yourself on the watch as the calls
of these first runners may lead
sentiment for others to do the same
 Tech Spotlight --- Page 3

US: Dow Jones

Recommendation: Hold (watch support stop)
Support: 23,400 - 23,042 Resistance: 23,500 - 24,080
The Dow inched up 6-pts as the index proceeds to climb
along a sharp channel extending its overbought condition
MACD readings warn of some momentum slowdown in the
Dow but its stand over support renders a Hold up until stops
are broken
Prepare for volatility to rise once again as suggested by a
rebounding VIX (which comes from its lows)
Support stop raised to 23,400 followed by 23,042
The index is also climbing along two upward channels, one
seen in its very short term daily chart and its weekly chart,
projecting next resistance between 23,500 (hit)-24,080
 Tech Spotlight --- Page 4

Philippines: PSEi
Recommendation: Range trade or Hold to stop
Support: 8,209 - 8,100 Resistance: 8,570-8,605 / 8,766
The PSEi paused, edging down 13-pts (-0.16%) but still
stands close to resistance offering some challenge
Also after a 50% Fibonacci retracement, it may add some
supportive value but would first suggest a rally into a range
to wind in
MACD readings have improved and may draw in a new
attempt to push & continue its weekly advancing channel
But until a new high can be scored, a range trade is
maintained
Resistance is adjusted to first at 8,570-8,605 if this is
broken then next estimate is running at 8,766
While prices are in a assumed box, we shall keep support
at its recent low of 8,209; it can be raised to its short term
averages if prices manage to break over its highs
 Tech Spotlight --- Page 5

US iShares MSCI Philippines: EPHE

Recommendation: Range Trade or Hold to stop
Support: 37.15 - 36.20 Resistance: 38.25-38.40 / 39.45
EPHE rallied $0.25 (+0.67%) and tries to make its way back
to its recent highs
A possible new channel may be in the works, if so it would
see next resistance at $38.25-$38.40 then $39.45
The target of $38.40 holds the resistance line of a large
Symmetrical Triangle (shown below) and would need to
break this to free it from its almost 3-yr consolidation
MACD has fixed itself and aides in the upliftment of price
Support levels are now far and may make entries a little
more difficult to control risk use MAs for stops now that
prices have punched over its recent high
 Tech Spotlight --- Page 6

PLDT-US (PHI)
Recommendation: Range trade (to resistance)
Support: 32.30 30.87 Resistance: 34.50 36.53
PLDT-US was down $0.06 (-0.18%) but proceeds to zigzag
within a consolidation range (upward channel)
An earlier push out of its down trendline maneuvered it
back to a wider horizontal range and now the rally within in
it can be traded thru its channel bounds
It would be preferential to keep seeing higher-lows to lever
up closer to major resistance ($34.50) it needs to break
this to finally restore a medium to longer term advance
Support is upped to $32.30 then $30.87 (good stop points)