Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 13

Ao Ventas

1 242
2 235
3 232
4 178
5 184
6 140
7 145
8 152
9 110
10 130
11 152
12 206
13 263
14 238
15 247
16 193
17 193
18 149
19 157
20 161
21 122
22 130
23 167
24 230
25 282
26 255
27 265
28 205
29 210
30 160
31 166
32 174
33 126
34 148
35 173
36 235
Forecasting results for Ventas Date Observation Forecast Error
1 242.000
Moving averages 2 235.000
3 232.000
Span 3 4 178.000 236.333 -58.333
5 184.000 215.000 -31.000
Estimation period 6 140.000 198.000 -58.000
7 145.000 167.333 -22.333
MAE 39.2626 8 152.000 156.333 -4.333
RMSE 48.5394 9 110.000 145.667 -35.667
MAPE 21.21% 10 130.000 135.667 -5.667
11 152.000 130.667 21.333
12 206.000 130.667 75.333
13 263.000 162.667 100.333
14 238.000 207.000 31.000
15 247.000 235.667 11.333
16 193.000 249.333 -56.333
17 193.000 226.000 -33.000
18 149.000 211.000 -62.000
19 157.000 178.333 -21.333
20 161.000 166.333 -5.333
21 122.000 155.667 -33.667
22 130.000 146.667 -16.667
23 167.000 137.667 29.333
24 230.000 139.667 90.333
25 282.000 175.667 106.333
26 255.000 226.333 28.667
27 265.000 255.667 9.333
28 205.000 267.333 -62.333
29 210.000 241.667 -31.667
30 160.000 226.667 -66.667
31 166.000 191.667 -25.667
32 174.000 178.667 -4.667
33 126.000 166.667 -40.667
34 148.000 155.333 -7.333
35 173.000 149.333 23.667
36 235.000 149.000 86.000
37 185.333
38 197.778
39 206.037
40 196.383
41 200.066
42 200.829
43 199.092
44 199.996
45 199.972
46 199.687
47 199.885
48 199.848
Time series of Ventas
300.000

250.000

200.000

150.000

100.000

50.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 3
Time

Time series of Ventas with forecasts superimposed


300.000

250.000

200.000

150.000

100.000

50.000

0.000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Time

Forecast errors for Ventas


120.000

100.000

80.000

60.000

40.000

20.000

0.000
100.000

80.000

60.000

40.000

20.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 3
-20.000

-40.000

-60.000

-80.000
Time
s

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

sts superimposed

Observation
Forecast

33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

as
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Forecasting results for Ventas Date Observation SmLevel SmTrend SmSeason
1 242.000 1.379
Winters' exponential smoothing 2 235.000 1.339
3 232.000 1.322
Smoothing constant(s) 4 178.000 1.014
Level 0.056 5 184.000 1.048
Trend 0.784 6 140.000 0.798
Seasonality 0.366 7 145.000 0.826
8 152.000 0.866
Estimation period 9 110.000 0.627
10 130.000 0.741
MAE 3.7785 11 152.000 0.866
RMSE 6.1931 12 206.000 175.500 1.000 1.174
MAPE 1.95% 13 263.000 177.296 1.624 1.417
14 238.000 178.853 1.572 1.336
15 247.000 180.784 1.853 1.338
16 193.000 183.066 2.189 1.029
77.639 17 193.000 185.189 2.138 1.046
187.639 0.4137675796 18 149.000 187.296 2.114 0.797
19 157.000 189.444 2.141 0.827
20 161.000 191.266 1.891 0.857
21 122.000 193.241 1.956 0.628
22 130.000 194.096 1.093 0.715
23 167.000 195.056 0.989 0.862
24 230.000 196.040 0.985 1.174
25 282.000 197.134 1.071 1.422
26 255.000 197.795 0.749 1.319
27 265.000 198.516 0.727 1.337
28 205.000 199.243 0.727 1.029
29 210.000 200.013 0.761 1.048
30 160.000 200.774 0.761 0.797
31 166.000 201.487 0.724 0.826
32 174.000 202.255 0.758 0.858
33 126.000 202.872 0.647 0.626
34 148.000 203.717 0.803 0.719
35 173.000 204.300 0.630 0.857
36 235.000 204.668 0.425 1.164
0.0114856757 37 295.000
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast Error

Time series of Ventas


300.000

250.000

200.000

150.000

243.379 19.621
100.000
239.578 -1.578
238.511 8.489
50.000
185.239 7.761
194.227 -1.227
149.434 -0.434 0.000
156.492 0.508 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
165.931 -4.931 Time
121.067 0.933
144.590 -14.590
169.052 -2.052
230.116 -0.116
279.215 2.785
264.799 -9.799 Time series of Ventas with forecasts
265.685 -0.685 350.000
205.000 0.000
209.198 0.802 300.000
160.001 -0.001
166.697 -0.697 250.000
173.333 0.667
127.583 -1.583
200.000
145.469 2.531
176.390 -3.390
150.000
240.503 -5.503
291.650 3.350
100.000
271.050
275.339
50.000
212.330
216.621
165.135 0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
171.500
178.590 Time
Observation Forecast
0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Time
Observation Forecast
130.464
150.224
179.349
244.230
Forecast errors for Ventas
25.000

20.000

15.000

10.000

5.000

0.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2
-5.000

-10.000

-15.000

-20.000
Time
ries of Ventas

6 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Time

Ventas with forecasts superimposed

8 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Time
vation Forecast
8 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Time
vation Forecast

ast errors for Ventas

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Time