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February 27, 2017

Q UIC RESEARCH REPO RT

Metals & Mining

Carmen Chen
Tracy Li
Charan Arulmani
Connor Steckly

Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Detour Gold Corporation is a Canadian gold producer headquartered


in Toronto. Their business is in the acquisition, exploration,
development, and operation of mines in Northern Ontario. Detour has
a 100% ownership interest in its flagship asset, the Detour Lake mine,
which is one of the largest gold-producing mines in the country.

Highlights

1. Investment Thesis I: Premium, High-Quality Asset

2. Investment Thesis II: Organic Growth Potential within Existing Assets

3. Investment Thesis III: Effective Cost Cutting and Deleveraging


Activities

4. Investment Thesis IV: Ideal Position for a Potential Acquisition

QUIC Research Reports focus on


emerging in vestment themes that
affect current portfolio companies
Current Price: $17.07 | Target Price: $22.33 | Stop Loss: $15 | Return: and companies under coverage.
30.8%

The information in this document is for EDUCATIONAL and NON-COMMERCIAL use only and is not intended to constitute specific legal, accounting,
financial or tax advice for any individual. In no event will QUIC, its members or directors, or Queens University be liable to you or anyone else for any loss
or damages whatsoever (including direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, exemplary or punitive damages) resulting from the use of this
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without the prior written consent of QUIC and Queens University.

QUIC is not in the business of advising o r holding themselves out as being in the business of advising. Many facto rs may affect the applicability of any
statement or comment that appear in our documents to an individual's particular circumstances.

Queens University 2017


QU IC Resear c h Repor t
February 27, 2017
Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Table of Contents

Business Overview 3

Industry Overview 4

Investment Theses

Investment Thesis I: Premium, High-Quality Asset 5

Investment Thesis II: Organic Growth Potential within Existing Assets 6

Investment Thesis III: Effective Cost Cutting and Deleveraging Activities 8

Investment Thesis IV: Ideal Position for a Potential Acquisition 9

Catalysts and Risks 11

Valuation

NAV Model 12

Comparables 13

Portfolio Implications 14

References 15

Appendices 16

February 27, 2017


QU IC Resear c h Repor t
February 27, 2017
Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Business Over view


Detour Gold Corporation is a Canadian gold company has plans in 2017 to trench along the
producer headquartered in Toronto. Their business identified mineralization to determine the location
is in the acquisition, exploration, development, and of unidentified gold.
operation of mines in Northern Ontario. Detour has
a 100% ownership interest in its flagship asset, the Detour holds a near-surface gold deposit located 1
Detour Lake mine, which is one of the larg est go ld- kilometer west of the main Detour Lake Mine that is
producing mines in the country. referred to as West Detour. The property is
estimated to contain a reserve of 1.5 million ounces.
Additionally, the company controls the Burntbush The company has plans to develop this land so it
property, which spans 494 squared kilometers and can produce gold and contribute to the overall
can be found 70 kilometers south of the Detour output of the Detour Lake Mine. Headwinds
Lake Mine. Detour has plans on performing regard ing obtaining the necessary permits to begin
electromagnetic surveys and field mapping to development have delayed the start of this project
explore this land in the future. from an original date of 2018 to an expected date
of 2021.
A primary focus for the company recently has been
in the area of exploration. In 2016, 36 holes were The company generated annual revenues of $563
drilled on the Lower Detour Trend, which is 25 million and incurred a net loss of $163 million in
kilometers of under-explored land on the Detour 2015. Detour has a market capitalization of $2.3
Lake mine property. Additionally, 19 holes were billion with a Total Debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.3, a 25%
drilled in the eastern section of the property; the reduction from 2014 levels.

EXHIBIT I
Management Overview

Paul Martin James Mavor Pierre Beaudoin

Position President, CEO, Director Chief Financial Officer Chief Operating Officer

Annual Compensation $3,439,211 $1,702,395 $2,235,662

25+ years experience in 20+ years experience in 28+ years experience of


precious metals mining mining. VP Finance at international operating
& development. Detour before & development mining
Previously CFO at becoming CFO. Was VP experience. SVP Capital
Detour between 2013- and Treasurer at Barrick Projects with Detour in
Experience
2014. CFO of New Gold Gold in the past. Earned the past. 16 years with
Inc. prior to joining bachelor of Electrical Barrick Gold prior to
Detour. Engineering at Queens joining Detour.
University and is a CA
charter holder.

Source: Company Reports, Thomson One

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Industr y Over view


Introduction growth can be attributed to an increase in recycled
gold and net producer hedging (accelerated timing
The gold industry extracts minerals from the of sales). The rally in global gold prices caused
ground for its gold content and is then processed recycled gold to be more appealing, which justifies
into bars, called bullion, either on-site or elsewhere. the growth in its supply of 17%. This growth was
Gold is primarily demanded by investors, electronic offset by a stagnant growth in gold production.
manufacturing, jewelry, and central banks. However, higher gold prices is lik ely to increase
capital expenditure within the industry in the
Success Factors coming years, which will increase development and
eventually total production.
Rising inflation is beneficial for the gold industry as
it makes gold an attractive investment. Unlike In terms of the demand for gold, it grew at a
currencies, gold maintains its value in inflationary slightly slower rate of 2% in 2016. A surge in
environments, which acts as a hedge against demand for gold-backed ETFs lead the growth in
inflation. demand, while a slump in jewelry and central bank
demand offset growth. Demand from jewelry and
In Canada, the strength of the dollar relative to
central banks was at a 7 and 6 year low,
trading partners has an impact on the affordability
respectively. The increase in gold prices during
of products, meaning a weak Canadian dollar will
2016 reduced the demand for jewelry. This was a
generate greater sales for domestic gold producers.
detriment fo r the demand of gold given it is a
Global Supply & Demand primary input of jewelry.

The gold industry experienced overall gro wth in


global supply of 5% during the year of 2016. The

EXHIBIT II EXHIBIT III


Gold Price & Total Exploration Announcements 2016 Demand Growth by Segment

2,000 150 6,000


+660.2
5,000
1,500 -9.5 -17.9 -192.9
100 4,000 -347 +92.9
1,000 3,000
50 2,000
500 1,000
-
- -
Central Banks
Technology

Jewellery
Bar and Coin
ETFs & Similar

Net Change (2016 vs


2015

2016

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


2015)

Price of Gold ($/oz. LHS)

Significant Exploration Announcements

Source: World Gold Council

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Investment Thesis I: Long-life Premium Asset


With the scarcity in single-asset gold mines with opportunities to explore in the western and
multi-million ounce reserves, Detour has an northern sections of their main mine, and has
incredibly valuable asset. The substantial size of the already begun drilling holes to identify new
mine is superior to several smaller mines because it mineralization in the lower and eastern sections of
has the ability to deliver stable, predictable free the property. The overflow of potential pro jects to
cash flow for over 20 upcoming years given its long undertake within the Detour Lake asset is likely to
life. The mine has a reserve of 16.4 million ounces, uncover resources that were not originally
which is much larger than the flagship mines of accounted for, which will increase the value of this
other Canadian mines. Additionally, the 620 asset over time.
squared kilometer property is located in the
politically-stab le geographical reg ion of Northern As indicated in Exhibit VI, all-in sustainable costs
Ontario. (AISC) for the Detour Lake Mine have decreased
since inception and are expected to remain
Under the new Life of Mine (LOM) plan, the Detour stagnant into the future. Contrarily, gold production
Lake Mine is expected to produce an annual output has increased since inception and is expected to
of 617,000 ounces over the next three y ears. With remain at an annual output near the 600,000
operational p erfo rmance enhancements, the mine ounces per year figure into the future, which does
is estimated to have an annual production of not include the West Detour Mine. Overall, the
655,000 ounces over its 23-year useful life. fundamentals of the mine continue to improve,
meaning the value offered from this asset acts as a
Another advantage of owning a property as large hedge to any unforeseen risks to Detours balance
as the Detour Lake M ine is that it p rovides ample sheet.
exploration projects. Exploration projects are the
basis of production growth. Detour has identified

EXHIBIT VI EXHIBIT V
Detour Lake Output vs. All-in Sustainable Costs Detour Lake & West Detour Map Outlines

800 $1,600
Gold Production (koz)

700 $1,400
Northern Pit
600 $1,200
Costs (US$/oz)

500 $1,000
400 $800 West Detour
300 $600
200 $400 Detour Lake Mine
100 $200
- $0
2013 2015 2017E 2019E 2021E

Detour Lake (LHS) AISC (RHS)

Source: Desjardins Capital Markets Source: Company Reports

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QU IC Resear c h Repor t
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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Investment Thesis II: Organic Growth Potential within Existing Assets


The West Detour satellite deposit located 1 Rainy River mine, took 815 days to be issued a
kilometre from the Detour Lake mine, was b eing verdict.
developed to start pre-stripping in early 2018 for a
2019 start up. The development has 1.5MM ounces However, besides the increased timeline there are
of gold in reserves. However, one of Detour Golds relatively few d rawbacks of pursuing the
aboriginal partners has requested that the assessment at the federal level. The Agency had
permitting process for the project be conducted advised the company in 2015 that a federal process
through the Federal Environment Assessment would not be required, but is now obligated to
process. After consideration of this request, Detour review the decision due to the request from the
has postponed production from the West Detour indigenous band. A comprehensive study
Pit until after 2021. The Canadian Environmental completed by the CEAA in 2011 concluded that the
Assessment Agency (CEAA) has 45 days from the Detour Project would not cause significant adverse
filing of the request to decide if the assessment will environmental effects and since then the project
fall under provincial o r federal ju risdiction. The has not changed significantly. Detour Gold is
difference between federal and provincial preparing a new life-of-mine (LOM) plan that
jurisdiction will be: timeline of the project, public incorporates the deferring of mining in the West
participation, and increased ministry scrutiny. The Detour Pit to 2021, that is expected to effectively
timeline for a federally overseen project is more utilize the mine. We believe the markets are over
than two years a similar Ontarian project, the exaggerating how detrimental the new LOM plan
will be to the mine.
EXHIBIT VI

Overview of Federal Environment Assessment

45 Days to distinguish
jurisdiction (Current
Stage)

Determination of Environmental Impact Environmental Impact


necessity of EA statement guidelines Statement

Environmental
Assessment or Review Final Decision
Panel

Source: Government of Canada

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Investment Thesis II: Organic Growth Potential within Existing Assets


The incorporation of West Detour into the 2016 As part of the new LOM plan, Detour will be
LOM plan was important but does not negate the focused on optimizing their 2019 to 2021
value of the companys assets or the growth production, including an option to start p roducing
pipeline that currently exists. The actual NAV impact from the North satellite pit in the Detour Lake mine.
of the project was modest and the main benefit of The companys objectives are to optimize the strip
the operation was it helped de-risk the mine plan ratio, take advantage of the 60,000 tonnes per day
by allowing for lower mining rates. The 2014 mine processing plant, and not change the cut-off grade.
plan called for aggressive mining rates, and West Detour Gold plans to increase its 2017 truck fleet by
Detour added a second source of ore while one to 28, to increase the tonnes per annum from
boosting free cash flow by improving head grades 100MM to 112MM. In addition, the company is
and lowering the strip ratio. However, West Detour undergoing a 30,000-metre infill d rilling prog ram in
only represents 9% of total reserves at the Detour FY 2017 which will occur 250-450 meters below
Lake property and the company will still generate surface. The company has also identified Zone 58N
strong free cash flow without the project. in the Lower Detour region of its mine, which has
the potential to be a high-grade underground
EXHIBIT V mine.
Detour Lake Pit (2018E and 2038E)
EXHIBIT VI

Detour Lake Growth Prospects

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Investment Thesis III: Effective Cost Cutting and Deleveraging Activities


Year to date, Detour Gold has repurchased terms of sustaining capital expenditures, 45% of the
$142MM convertible notes, in face value, reducing spending will be used on the mine in FY 2017. The
the amount due at maturity in November 2017 to next largest area of spending will be mining
$358MM. Management has highlighted they aim to equipment (23%). Improvements to the mill and the
reduce the outstanding amount by $58MM prior to capital expenditures at the West Detour
maturity, which is a realistic target per the development will be 3% each. The firm has also
companys estimated cash flows. In 2016, been steadily cutting cash and production costs
management had repaid $142MM of debt and the YoY which has helped increase margins and cash
company had a Net Deb t/EBITDA multiple of 1.4x. flows. With a lower than planned capital
~65% of Detour Golds costs are in Canadian expenditure in FY 2017 and a high 2016 cash
dollars which acts a natural hedge against currency balance of $129MM, Detour Gold will have enough
price fluctuations. The firm ended FY 2016, with liquidity for the foreseeable future. These initiatives
$129MM of debt in their balance sheet. that the company has partaken in will alleviate
concerns of an imminent capital raise. In addition,
The company expects to have $160-$180MM in the firm has exceptionally high recovery rates that
capital expenditures in FY 2017, in which $23MM often are more than 90%. This allows the firm to
will be paid in 2018. At the end of Q3 2016, the firm effectively extract gold from the ore that it mines
had ~$116MM in cash and cash equivalents. In and mills.

EXHIBIT VII EXHIBIT VIII


Debt Reduction ($MM) 2013 to 2017E AISC and Margins ($/oz)

$700 $1,400 $550

$500
$610
$1,200 $450

$520 $400

$1,000 $350
$430
$300

$800 $250
$340

$250
2013 2014 2015 2016 Nov-17 AISC (RHS) Margin (LHS)

Source: Company Reports

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Investment Thesis IV: Ideal Position for a Potential Acquisition


The prime suspects for a takeover of Detour Go ld companys significant exposure to Penasquito in
include: Agnico-Eagle, Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, Mexico and provide another long-life open-pit
Kinross, Newcrest, and Newmont. According to asset in the portfolio. Barrick could also afford to
CIBC World Markets, Goldcorp is the most likely to acquire Detour and the transaction would
benefit from the acquisition of the company. strengthen Barricks near-term production profile.
Detour Gold provides Go ldcorp with a health All six acquirers could benefit in terms of
improvement in asset mix, a meaningful production production profile and net present value, even with
transformation, and fits its new strateg ic initiatives. a 50% premium in an all-share transaction. The
A main aspect of the 2016 strategic shift for the long-life nature of the Detour Lake mine results in a
company was investment in juniors. Detour has the growing importance within the p roduction mix for
potential to lift Goldcorps production by 15%-25% all potential acquires and could offset possible
from 2018E to 2027E. Detour could also dilute the production decline in the future.

EXHIBIT IX
Market Capitalization and P/NPV of Acquirers
$20 4
$15
3
$10
2
$5
$0 1
Agnico Eagle Barrick Goldcorp Kinross Newcrest Newmont Detour

Market Cap ($B) (LHS) P/NPV (RHS)

EXHIBIT X
NPV Accretion of Acquirers
25% 22%21%
19%
20% 17%
14% 15%
15% 11%
9% 9% 9%
10% 6% 6%
5%

0%
Agnico Eagle Barrick Goldcorp Kinross Newcrest Newmont

30% Premium 50% Premium


Source: CIBC World Markets, Company Reports, Capital IQ

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Investment Thesis IV: Ideal Position for a Potential Acquisition


Goldcorp (TSX:G) is one of the most p rominent potential acquisition QUICS Metals and Mining
holdings for the Metals and Mining sector. With the sector would dually benefit. Detour has the
leadership of David Garofalo, Goldcorp aimed to potential to lift Goldcorps production by 15-25%
have a strateg ic shift into focusing on: 1) NAV during 2018E to 2027E, while representing 21% of
accretion, 2) decentralization and cost-cutting, 3) the company using a 30% premium. The mining
reinvestment of FCF, and 4) investment in junior expertise found at Goldcorp appears to be
miners. A case study was completed to investigate compatible for Detour. Detour also helps dilute
how accretive and lucrative an acquisition of Detour Goldcorps significant exposure to Penasquito in
could be for Goldcorp. As aforementioned, even Mexico and provides another long-life open-pit
with a 50% p remium the acquisition would be asset in the portfolio.
accretive to Goldcorp shareholders. Hence, in a

EXHIBIT XI

Goldcorp Gold Production after Acquisition of Detour (MM oz)

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Canada Mexico Guatamala USA Dominican Republic Argentina Other Detour

Source: CIBC World Markets, Company Reports, Capital IQ

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Catalysts & Risks


Catalysts 2) West Detour Development Issues

1) Exploration Program An important factor for Detours g rowth in


production moving forward is the development of
Detour Gold has begun significant exploration their West Detour mine. Recently, the Company was
projects in 2016 that will continue into the coming denied a permit that was necessary to proceed with
years. Activ ities include drilling over 50 holes on development, delaying the project start date from
their Detour Lake Mine property and surveying land 2018 to an expected date of 2021. Abo riginal
on the Burntbush property. Plans to trench areas partners have requested the permit application to
where mineralization was found could uncover be considered at the fed eral level instead of the
resources that were not accounted for, which would provincial level, which takes 2-3 years as opposed
increase the reserve of the mine and increase its to one year. Inability to obtain permits will hinder
value. Detours p rojected annual production of 655,000 oz
from the Detour Lake mine.
2) Operational Improvements
3) Currency Volatility
The opportunity to implement Continuous
Improvement Projects and optimize processes over Being a Canadian company, Detours revenues have
the 23-year life of its Detour Lake mine has the benefitted from a weak Canadian Dollar in
potential to lower the overall costs of production, comparison to the US Dollar. American buyers are
which would grow margins. attracted to buying from Detour because of the
economical exchange rate. If this relation changes
3) West Detour Ore Softness and the Canadian Dollar strengthens, revenues will
decrease because Detour will not export as much of
The ore that is will be extracted once the West
its gold to its trading partners.
Detour mine is in operation is softer than ores
currently being mined. Soft o res can be processed
faster, which will result in lower costs and higher EXHIBIT XII
outputs at Detours plant.
Historical Price of Gold ($/oz)
Risks 2,000
1) Price of Gold
1,500
The profitability of the Company depends heavily
on the world price of gold. The nature of gold
prices are volatile, and fluctuate for reasons beyond 1,000
Detours control. Factors influencing the price of
gold include: inflation, consumer confidence, and
exchange rates. Significant devaluation of gold 500
could force the Company to liquidate assets and/or
record an impairment on the value of its assets, -
thus reducing the value of the company. 2007 2009 2011 2013

Source: World Gold Council

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Comparables P/NAV
Average P/NAV

2.5x
2.0x
1.5x 1.50
1.0x 1.07

0.5x
0.0x

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Average Detour

The average P/NAV in a comparable set of companies is 1.5x. Detour Gold is currently trading at 1.07x. A
benchmark of 1.4x was selected as a conservative estimate.

NAV Output
NAV Summary Long-term Assumptions
Share Price (TSX:DGC) $17.07 Discount Rate 5.00%
FDSO 175.37 Gold (USD/oz) $1,200.00
Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) 1.35
Market Capitalization (CAD) $2,993.57 Implied Current P/NAV 1.07x
Adjustments (CAD) $57.91 2017E P/NAV 1.40x
Enterprise Value (USD) $3,051.47 Target Price $22.33

NAV based on after-tax UFCF


Ownership Discount NAV (USD NAV per
Asset
Interest Rate MM) share
Detour Lake 100.0% 5.0% 1,808.76 10.31

Gross Asset Value 1,808.76 10.31


- Debt 102.72 0.59
+ Cash and investments 160.63 0.92
NAV (USD) 2,072.11 11.82
NAV (CAD) 2,797.35 15.95

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Comparables Analysis
Comparable Companies
Gold - Senior Producers Market Enterprise EV / EBITDA P/CF Dividend Price / Earnings Net Debt/EBITDA
Cap ($MM) Value ($MM) LTM 2016E 2017E LTM Yield P/NAV 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E EV/Reserves EV/R+R
Barrick Gold Corp. $29,838 $40,476 7.2x 7.8x 8.0x 3.4x 0.6% 2.1x 23.1x 23.2x 1.4x 1.4x $269 $147
Goldcorp Inc. $18,532 $21,973 11.8x 11.1x 9.9x 7.3x 0.5% 2.0x 43.7x 32.6x 1.7x 1.5x $226 $148
Agnico-Eagle Mines $10,195 $10,763 12.5x 13.0x 11.3x 8.8x 0.9% 1.7x 73.3x 44.6x 0.7x 0.6x $106 $74
B2Gold Corp. $4,236 $4,671 12.1x 11.5x 15.5x 5.9x - 1.3x 26.0x nmf 1.1x 1.4x $383 $173
Alamos Gold $3,146 $3,198 17.0x 15.2x 12.2x 7.5x 0.2% 1.5x nmf 50.0x 0.2x 0.2x $249 $75
IAMGOLD Corp. $2,576 $2,418 6.0x 6.3x 5.5x 4.0x - 1.0x nmf nmf 2.3x 1.5x $132 $53
Endeavour Mining $2,504 $2,585 9.5x 8.6x 7.8x nmf - 1.4x 23.9x 18.5x nmf nmf $299 $227
NovaGold Resources $2,450 $2,423 nmf nmf 0.0x nmf - 2.3x nmf 0.0x nmf nmf $557 $256
Torex Gold $2,150 $2,556 15.8x 9.1x 8.2x nmf - 1.1x 22.6x 22.1x 0.6x nmf $651 $316
New Gold, Inc. $2,014 $2,959 8.0x 7.5x 4.9x 4.5x - 2.0x 57.3x 20.3x 1.1x 1.0x $134 $84
Centerra $1,920 $2,369 4.6x 4.3x 4.1x 2.5x 2.4% 0.7x 9.6x 9.3x 0.7x 0.8x nmf nmf
Semafo $1,436 $1,175 6.1x 6.0x 7.0x 5.0x - 0.8x 21.4x 26.7x nmf nmf $1,367 $300
Mean $6,750 $8,131 10.0x 9.1x 7.9x 5.4x 0.9% 1.5x 33.4x 24.7x 1.1x 1.1x $398 $168
Median $2,540 $2,772 9.5x 8.6x 7.9x 5.0x 0.6% 1.5x 23.9x 22.6x 1.1x 1.2x $269 $148

Detour Gold Corporation $2,980 $3,267 11.2x 10.9x 10.3x 15.9x - 1.1x nmf nmf 0.7x 0.7x $711 $323

Detour Gold Co rporation (TSX:DGC) is currently trad ing at a p remium on an EV/EBITDA basis in a LTM
(11.2x), 2016E (10.9x), and 2017E (10.3x) compared to an industry average of 10.0x, 9.1x, and 7.9x
respectively. The premium is due to the fact that the industry peer-set includes more stable, larger names
such as Barrick Gold and Goldcorp. On a P/NAV basis, DGC trades at a significant discount. For an asset-
centric firm like DGC, this discount is due to recent negative news events and is overplayed by the market
such as the West Detour problems. The asset has historically traded at 1.4x-1.5x P/NAV.

Target Price

Credit Suisse $21.00

Desjardins $21.50

QUIC $22.33

BMO Capital $23.00 Target Price


Current Price $17.07
CIBC $24.00 12-Month Target Price $22.33
Price Return 30.8%
National Bank $25.00
Dividend Yield -
Canaccord Genuity $26.50 Total Implied Return 30.8%

Paradigm Capital $27.50

Average $29.67

RBC Capital Markets $35.00

Based on a NAV with a target P/NAV of 1.4x the implied share p rice is $22.23 which has an implied return
of 30.8%. Compared to the analyst average of $29.67, QUICs model is very conservative.

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Portfolio Implications
EXHIBIT XIII

Pro-forma Portfolio

Lundin Mining Goldcorp


Corporation Inc. Franco-Nevada Goldcorp
Franco-
10% 8% Corporation, Tahoe Inc.
Nevada
28% Resources 11%
Corporation,
Inc. 24%
11%

Tahoe
Resources
CCL
Inc. Industries
9% Inc.
CCL Teck 14%
Industries Silver Resources Silver
Detour Gold
Inc. Wheaton Limited Wheaton
24%
14% Corp. 18% Corp.
13% 16%

Source: Capital IQ

The Metals and Mining secto r see Detour Gold as a Following these trades, the QUIC M&M portfolio
potentially significant fit in the po rtfolio. We plan to will be composed of 6 different names, down from
sell our holdings in Lundin Mining Corporation 11 at the beginning of fiscal 2016. We believe
(TSX:LUN) as we believe the marg in of safety for the further consolidation is necessary as suggested in
company has depreciated. Using proceeds from the the strategic plan for FY 2016. However, we believe
sale, we will purchase a stake in Detour Go ld that our other holdings still have room to
(TSX:DGC) and complete rebalancing trades to appreciate. The next move would be to sell off
decrease the weight of Franco-Nevada Corporation either Goldcorp or F ranco-Nevada and dispose
(TSX:FNV). Franco-Nevada is one of QUICs legacy either Tahoe Resources or Silver Wheaton. CCL
holdings. We have conviction in the companys industries has been an excellent performer and
management team, current assets, and future further analysis must be taken to see if the
royalty/streaming deals. company is overvalued and should be sold.

In addition, QUIC will sell one of our top holdings in


FY 2016 Teck Resources. Teck is currently trading
at $27.16, and has made a tremendous comeback
from its single dig it share price in 2015 due to the
commodity downturn.

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

References
1. CIBC World Market

2. S&P Capital IQ

3. Paper Report

4. Wells Fargo

5. Jeffries

6. Grandview Research

7. BMO Capital Markets

8. TD Securities

9. Morningstar

10. PriceWaterCooper

11. Deloitte

12. IBIS World

13. Bloomberg

14. RBC Capital Markets

15. Credit Suisse

16. Desjardins

17. Canaccord Genuity

18. Paradigm Capital

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Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Appendix I: Net Asset Value Model Assumptions

Toggle Active Bear Base Bull


Commodity Price Assumptions
Gold 2 $ 1,200 $ 1,100 $ 1,200 $ 1,300

Financial Assumptions
Discount Rate 2 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0%
Tax Rate 2 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Depreciation & Amortization 2 20.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0%
TSX:DGC 2017-02-24
Working Capital Assumptions
Cash and Equivalents $ 160.63
Current Assets $ 275.07
Current Liabilities $ 61.08
Revenues $ 563.02
Working Capital (WC) $ 53.37
WC (% of Revenue) 9.48%

February 27, 2017 16


QU IC Resear c h Repor t
February 27, 2017
Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Appendix II: Net Asset Value Model (2016E-2023E)

NAV Model (2016E-2023E)


2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
Payable Metals
Total Ore Milled (k oz) 2,140 2,140 2,140 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300
Ore Grade (Au g/t) 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.89 0.89 0.89 1.06 1.06
Gold Recovery 91.5% 91.5% 91.5% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92%
Gold Production (k oz) 617.00 617.00 617.00 605.52 605.52 605.52 721.18 721.18
Total Mined (k oz) 1,048 1,048 1,048 1,194 1,194 1,194 1,180 1,180
Total Au Production (oz) 617.00 617.00 617.00 605.52 605.52 605.52 721.18 721.18
Net Smelter Royalty to FNV 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Gold Available for DGC 604.66 604.66 604.66 593.41 593.41 593.41 706.76 706.76

Revenue $ 755,820 $ 786,053 $ 816,286 $ 712,089 $ 712,089 $ 712,089 $ 848,106 $ 848,106


Operating costs ($/oz) $812.00 $812.00 $812.00 $803.00 $803.00 $803.00 $632.00 $632.00
Operating costs $ 501,001 $ 501,001 $ 501,001 $ 486,231 $ 486,231 $ 486,231 $ 455,785 $ 455,785

Operating Income $ 254,819 $ 285,052 $ 315,285 $ 225,858 $ 225,858 $ 225,858 $ 392,321 $ 392,321
Less: D&A $ 151,164 $ 157,211 $ 163,257 $ 142,418 $ 142,418 $ 142,418 $ 169,621 $ 169,621
EBIT $ 103,655 $ 127,842 $ 152,028 $ 83,440 $ 83,440 $ 83,440 $ 222,700 $ 222,700
Less: Income Taxes -$ 3,000 $ 6,000 $ 46,000 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 $ 65,000 $ 65,000
NOPAT $ 106,655 $ 121,842 $ 106,028 $ 72,440 $ 72,440 $ 72,440 $ 157,700 $ 157,700

Operating Income

Total CAPEX $ 170,000 $ 105,000 $ 105,000 $ 62,000 $ 62,000 $ 62,000 $ 28,000 $ 28,000
Less: Change in WC $ 71,641 $ 74,507 $ 77,372 $ 67,496 $ 67,496 $ 67,496 $ 80,388 $ 80,388
Less: Taxes -$ 3,000 $ 6,000 $ 46,000 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 $ 65,000 $ 65,000
After Tax UFCF $ 16,178 $ 99,546 $ 86,913 $ 85,362 $ 85,362 $ 85,362 $ 218,933 $ 218,933

PV of FCF $ 15,788 $ 92,521 $ 76,933 $ 71,962 $ 68,535 $ 65,272 $ 159,434 $ 151,842

February 27, 2017 17


QU IC Resear c h Repor t
February 27, 2017
Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Appendix III: Net Asset Value Model (2024E-2030E)

NAV Model (2024E-2030E)


2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Payable Metals
Total Ore Milled (k oz) 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300
Ore Grade (Au g/t) 1.06 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.87 0.87 0.87
Gold Recovery 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92% 92% 92% 92%
Gold Production (k oz) 721.18 605.52 605.52 605.52 591.91 591.91 591.91
Total Mined (k oz) 1,180 1,232 1,232 1,232 1,181 1,181 1,181
Total Au Production (oz) 721.18 605.52 605.52 605.52 591.91 591.91 591.91
Net Smelter Royalty to FNV 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Gold Available for DGC 706.76 593.41 593.41 593.41 580.07 580.07 580.07

Revenue $ 848,106 $ 712,089 $ 712,089 $ 712,089 $ 696,087 $ 696,087 $ 696,087


Operating costs ($/oz) $632.00 $632.00 $632.00 $632.00 $632.00 $632.00 $632.00
Operating costs $ 455,785 $ 382,687 $ 382,687 $ 382,687 $ 374,088 $ 374,088 $ 374,088

Operating Income $ 392,321 $ 329,402 $ 329,402 $ 329,402 $ 322,000 $ 322,000 $ 322,000


Less: D&A $ 169,621 $ 142,418 $ 142,418 $ 142,418 $ 139,217 $ 139,217 $ 139,217
EBIT $ 222,700 $ 186,984 $ 186,984 $ 186,984 $ 182,782 $ 182,782 $ 182,782
Less: Income Taxes $ 65,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000
NOPAT $ 157,700 $ 103,984 $ 103,984 $ 103,984 $ 99,782 $ 99,782 $ 99,782

Operating Income

Total CAPEX $ 28,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000


Less: Change in WC $ 80,388 $ 67,496 $ 67,496 $ 67,496 $ 65,979 $ 65,979 $ 65,979
Less: Taxes $ 65,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000
After Tax UFCF $ 218,933 $ 125,906 $ 125,906 $ 125,906 $ 120,020 $ 120,020 $ 120,020

PV of FCF $ 144,611 $ 79,204 $ 75,433 $ 71,840 $ 65,221 $ 62,115 $ 59,158

February 27, 2017 18


QU IC Resear c h Repor t
February 27, 2017
Detour Gold: The Simple, One-Asset Mine We Need

Appendix IV: Net Asset Value Model (2031E-2038E)

NAV Model (2031E-2038E)


2031E 2032E 2033E 2034E 2035E 2036E 2037E 2038E
Payable Metals
Total Ore Milled (k oz) 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 2,300 1,810 1,810
Ore Grade (Au g/t) 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.08 1.08
Gold Recovery 92.0% 92.0% 92.0% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92%
Gold Production (k oz) 721.18 721.18 721.18 782.41 782.41 782.41 578.24 578.24
Total Mined (k oz) 885 885 885 515 515 515 194 194
Total Au Production (oz) 721.18 721.18 721.18 782.41 782.41 782.41 578.24 578.24
Net Smelter Royalty to FNV 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Gold Available for DGC 706.76 706.76 706.76 766.76 766.76 766.76 566.68 566.68

Revenue $ 848,106 $ 848,106 $ 848,106 $ 920,115 $ 920,115 $ 920,115 $ 680,016 $ 680,016


Operating costs ($/oz) $ 632 $ 632 $ 632 $ 632 $ 632 $ 632 $ 632 $ 632
Operating costs $ 455,785 $ 455,785 $ 455,785 $ 494,484 $ 494,484 $ 494,484 $ 365,451 $ 365,451

Operating Income $ 392,321 $ 392,321 $ 392,321 $ 425,632 $ 425,632 $ 425,632 $ 314,565 $ 314,565
Less: D&A $ 169,621 $ 169,621 $ 169,621 $ 184,023 $ 184,023 $ 184,023 $ 136,003 $ 136,003
EBIT $ 222,700 $ 222,700 $ 222,700 $ 241,609 $ 241,609 $ 241,609 $ 178,562 $ 178,562
Less: Income Taxes $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000
NOPAT $ 139,700 $ 139,700 $ 139,700 $ 158,609 $ 158,609 $ 158,609 $ 95,562 $ 95,562

Operating Income

Total CAPEX $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000
Less: Change in WC $ 80,388 $ 80,388 $ 80,388 $ 87,214 $ 87,214 $ 87,214 $ 64,456 $ 64,456
Less: Taxes $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000
After Tax UFCF $ 175,933 $ 175,933 $ 175,933 $ 202,418 $ 202,418 $ 202,418 $ 114,109 $ 114,109

PV of FCF $ 82,587 $ 78,655 $ 74,909 $ 82,082 $ 78,173 $ 74,451 $ 39,972 $ 38,068

February 27, 2017 19

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