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Highlights
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Table of Contents
Business Overview 3
Industry Overview 4
Investment Theses
Valuation
NAV Model 12
Comparables 13
Portfolio Implications 14
References 15
Appendices 16
EXHIBIT I
Management Overview
Position President, CEO, Director Chief Financial Officer Chief Operating Officer
Jewellery
Bar and Coin
ETFs & Similar
2016
EXHIBIT VI EXHIBIT V
Detour Lake Output vs. All-in Sustainable Costs Detour Lake & West Detour Map Outlines
800 $1,600
Gold Production (koz)
700 $1,400
Northern Pit
600 $1,200
Costs (US$/oz)
500 $1,000
400 $800 West Detour
300 $600
200 $400 Detour Lake Mine
100 $200
- $0
2013 2015 2017E 2019E 2021E
45 Days to distinguish
jurisdiction (Current
Stage)
Environmental
Assessment or Review Final Decision
Panel
$500
$610
$1,200 $450
$520 $400
$1,000 $350
$430
$300
$800 $250
$340
$250
2013 2014 2015 2016 Nov-17 AISC (RHS) Margin (LHS)
EXHIBIT IX
Market Capitalization and P/NPV of Acquirers
$20 4
$15
3
$10
2
$5
$0 1
Agnico Eagle Barrick Goldcorp Kinross Newcrest Newmont Detour
EXHIBIT X
NPV Accretion of Acquirers
25% 22%21%
19%
20% 17%
14% 15%
15% 11%
9% 9% 9%
10% 6% 6%
5%
0%
Agnico Eagle Barrick Goldcorp Kinross Newcrest Newmont
EXHIBIT XI
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Comparables P/NAV
Average P/NAV
2.5x
2.0x
1.5x 1.50
1.0x 1.07
0.5x
0.0x
The average P/NAV in a comparable set of companies is 1.5x. Detour Gold is currently trading at 1.07x. A
benchmark of 1.4x was selected as a conservative estimate.
NAV Output
NAV Summary Long-term Assumptions
Share Price (TSX:DGC) $17.07 Discount Rate 5.00%
FDSO 175.37 Gold (USD/oz) $1,200.00
Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) 1.35
Market Capitalization (CAD) $2,993.57 Implied Current P/NAV 1.07x
Adjustments (CAD) $57.91 2017E P/NAV 1.40x
Enterprise Value (USD) $3,051.47 Target Price $22.33
Comparables Analysis
Comparable Companies
Gold - Senior Producers Market Enterprise EV / EBITDA P/CF Dividend Price / Earnings Net Debt/EBITDA
Cap ($MM) Value ($MM) LTM 2016E 2017E LTM Yield P/NAV 2016E 2017E 2016E 2017E EV/Reserves EV/R+R
Barrick Gold Corp. $29,838 $40,476 7.2x 7.8x 8.0x 3.4x 0.6% 2.1x 23.1x 23.2x 1.4x 1.4x $269 $147
Goldcorp Inc. $18,532 $21,973 11.8x 11.1x 9.9x 7.3x 0.5% 2.0x 43.7x 32.6x 1.7x 1.5x $226 $148
Agnico-Eagle Mines $10,195 $10,763 12.5x 13.0x 11.3x 8.8x 0.9% 1.7x 73.3x 44.6x 0.7x 0.6x $106 $74
B2Gold Corp. $4,236 $4,671 12.1x 11.5x 15.5x 5.9x - 1.3x 26.0x nmf 1.1x 1.4x $383 $173
Alamos Gold $3,146 $3,198 17.0x 15.2x 12.2x 7.5x 0.2% 1.5x nmf 50.0x 0.2x 0.2x $249 $75
IAMGOLD Corp. $2,576 $2,418 6.0x 6.3x 5.5x 4.0x - 1.0x nmf nmf 2.3x 1.5x $132 $53
Endeavour Mining $2,504 $2,585 9.5x 8.6x 7.8x nmf - 1.4x 23.9x 18.5x nmf nmf $299 $227
NovaGold Resources $2,450 $2,423 nmf nmf 0.0x nmf - 2.3x nmf 0.0x nmf nmf $557 $256
Torex Gold $2,150 $2,556 15.8x 9.1x 8.2x nmf - 1.1x 22.6x 22.1x 0.6x nmf $651 $316
New Gold, Inc. $2,014 $2,959 8.0x 7.5x 4.9x 4.5x - 2.0x 57.3x 20.3x 1.1x 1.0x $134 $84
Centerra $1,920 $2,369 4.6x 4.3x 4.1x 2.5x 2.4% 0.7x 9.6x 9.3x 0.7x 0.8x nmf nmf
Semafo $1,436 $1,175 6.1x 6.0x 7.0x 5.0x - 0.8x 21.4x 26.7x nmf nmf $1,367 $300
Mean $6,750 $8,131 10.0x 9.1x 7.9x 5.4x 0.9% 1.5x 33.4x 24.7x 1.1x 1.1x $398 $168
Median $2,540 $2,772 9.5x 8.6x 7.9x 5.0x 0.6% 1.5x 23.9x 22.6x 1.1x 1.2x $269 $148
Detour Gold Corporation $2,980 $3,267 11.2x 10.9x 10.3x 15.9x - 1.1x nmf nmf 0.7x 0.7x $711 $323
Detour Gold Co rporation (TSX:DGC) is currently trad ing at a p remium on an EV/EBITDA basis in a LTM
(11.2x), 2016E (10.9x), and 2017E (10.3x) compared to an industry average of 10.0x, 9.1x, and 7.9x
respectively. The premium is due to the fact that the industry peer-set includes more stable, larger names
such as Barrick Gold and Goldcorp. On a P/NAV basis, DGC trades at a significant discount. For an asset-
centric firm like DGC, this discount is due to recent negative news events and is overplayed by the market
such as the West Detour problems. The asset has historically traded at 1.4x-1.5x P/NAV.
Target Price
Desjardins $21.50
QUIC $22.33
Average $29.67
Based on a NAV with a target P/NAV of 1.4x the implied share p rice is $22.23 which has an implied return
of 30.8%. Compared to the analyst average of $29.67, QUICs model is very conservative.
Portfolio Implications
EXHIBIT XIII
Pro-forma Portfolio
Tahoe
Resources
CCL
Inc. Industries
9% Inc.
CCL Teck 14%
Industries Silver Resources Silver
Detour Gold
Inc. Wheaton Limited Wheaton
24%
14% Corp. 18% Corp.
13% 16%
Source: Capital IQ
The Metals and Mining secto r see Detour Gold as a Following these trades, the QUIC M&M portfolio
potentially significant fit in the po rtfolio. We plan to will be composed of 6 different names, down from
sell our holdings in Lundin Mining Corporation 11 at the beginning of fiscal 2016. We believe
(TSX:LUN) as we believe the marg in of safety for the further consolidation is necessary as suggested in
company has depreciated. Using proceeds from the the strategic plan for FY 2016. However, we believe
sale, we will purchase a stake in Detour Go ld that our other holdings still have room to
(TSX:DGC) and complete rebalancing trades to appreciate. The next move would be to sell off
decrease the weight of Franco-Nevada Corporation either Goldcorp or F ranco-Nevada and dispose
(TSX:FNV). Franco-Nevada is one of QUICs legacy either Tahoe Resources or Silver Wheaton. CCL
holdings. We have conviction in the companys industries has been an excellent performer and
management team, current assets, and future further analysis must be taken to see if the
royalty/streaming deals. company is overvalued and should be sold.
References
1. CIBC World Market
2. S&P Capital IQ
3. Paper Report
4. Wells Fargo
5. Jeffries
6. Grandview Research
8. TD Securities
9. Morningstar
10. PriceWaterCooper
11. Deloitte
13. Bloomberg
16. Desjardins
Financial Assumptions
Discount Rate 2 5.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0%
Tax Rate 2 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Depreciation & Amortization 2 20.0% 22.0% 20.0% 18.0%
TSX:DGC 2017-02-24
Working Capital Assumptions
Cash and Equivalents $ 160.63
Current Assets $ 275.07
Current Liabilities $ 61.08
Revenues $ 563.02
Working Capital (WC) $ 53.37
WC (% of Revenue) 9.48%
Operating Income $ 254,819 $ 285,052 $ 315,285 $ 225,858 $ 225,858 $ 225,858 $ 392,321 $ 392,321
Less: D&A $ 151,164 $ 157,211 $ 163,257 $ 142,418 $ 142,418 $ 142,418 $ 169,621 $ 169,621
EBIT $ 103,655 $ 127,842 $ 152,028 $ 83,440 $ 83,440 $ 83,440 $ 222,700 $ 222,700
Less: Income Taxes -$ 3,000 $ 6,000 $ 46,000 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 $ 65,000 $ 65,000
NOPAT $ 106,655 $ 121,842 $ 106,028 $ 72,440 $ 72,440 $ 72,440 $ 157,700 $ 157,700
Operating Income
Total CAPEX $ 170,000 $ 105,000 $ 105,000 $ 62,000 $ 62,000 $ 62,000 $ 28,000 $ 28,000
Less: Change in WC $ 71,641 $ 74,507 $ 77,372 $ 67,496 $ 67,496 $ 67,496 $ 80,388 $ 80,388
Less: Taxes -$ 3,000 $ 6,000 $ 46,000 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 $ 11,000 $ 65,000 $ 65,000
After Tax UFCF $ 16,178 $ 99,546 $ 86,913 $ 85,362 $ 85,362 $ 85,362 $ 218,933 $ 218,933
Operating Income
Operating Income $ 392,321 $ 392,321 $ 392,321 $ 425,632 $ 425,632 $ 425,632 $ 314,565 $ 314,565
Less: D&A $ 169,621 $ 169,621 $ 169,621 $ 184,023 $ 184,023 $ 184,023 $ 136,003 $ 136,003
EBIT $ 222,700 $ 222,700 $ 222,700 $ 241,609 $ 241,609 $ 241,609 $ 178,562 $ 178,562
Less: Income Taxes $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000
NOPAT $ 139,700 $ 139,700 $ 139,700 $ 158,609 $ 158,609 $ 158,609 $ 95,562 $ 95,562
Operating Income
Total CAPEX $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000 $ 53,000
Less: Change in WC $ 80,388 $ 80,388 $ 80,388 $ 87,214 $ 87,214 $ 87,214 $ 64,456 $ 64,456
Less: Taxes $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000 $ 83,000
After Tax UFCF $ 175,933 $ 175,933 $ 175,933 $ 202,418 $ 202,418 $ 202,418 $ 114,109 $ 114,109