4.

7-Counting
In many probability problems, the big obstacle is finding the total number of outcomes, and this section
presents several methods for finding such numbers without directly listing and counting the possibilities.

The Fundamental Counting Rule:

For a sequence of two events in which the first event can occur m ways and the second event can occur n
ways, the events together can occur a total of m x n ways.

Example: What are the total number of possible outcomes of flipping a coin and rolling a die?

Solution: There are two possible outcomes to flipping a coin and 6 possible outcomes for rolling a die.
Therefore, there are a total of 2 x 6 = 12 possible outcomes.

Example: A history professor is creating a quiz with four questions but is not sure what order to put the
questions in on the quiz. How many possible ways can he arrange these questions (outcomes)?

Solution: The first question the professor selects can be in any of the four positions; 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. The
second question selected will then only have three options. The third question has two options and the last
question only has one option. Therefore, the total number of arrangements of the four questions is:

4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 24

This result is generalized in the following rule.

Factorial Notation:
The factorial symbol (!) denotes the product of decreasing positive whole numbers.
For example,
4!= 4 3 2 1 = 24

By special definition, 0! = 1.

Factorial Rule:
A collection of n different items can be arranged in order n! different ways. (This factorial rule reflects the
fact that the first item may be selected in n different ways, the second item may be selected in n 1 ways,
and so on.)

Example: During the summer, you are planning to visit six different national parks. You would like to plan
the moist efficient route and you decide to list all the possible outcomes. How many different routes are
there?

Solution: The six national parks can be arranged in 6! different ways.

6!= 6 5 4 3 2 1 = 720

Therefore, there are 720 different routes.

Example: A tourist in France wants to visit 7 different cities. If the route is randomly selected, what is the
probability that she will visit the cities in alphabetical order?

Solution: There are 7! Ways to arrange the routes.

7!= 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 = 5040

1
Because there is only one arrange that will be in alphabetical order, the probability is
5040

Permutations Rule: (when items are all different)

A permutation is an arrangement or sequencing of items. When using the term permutation we imply that
order is taken into account.

Requirements:
1. There are n different items available. (This rule does not apply if some of the items are identical to
others.)
2. We select r of the n items (without replacement).
3. We consider rearrangements of the same items to be different sequences. (The permutation of ABC
is different from CBA and is counted separately.)

If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number of permutations (or sequences) of r items selected
from n available items (without replacement) is

n!
Pr =
(n r )!
n

Example: Evaluate 5 P3

Solution: This is the permutations of 5 items taken 3 at a time.

5! 5! 5 4 3 2 1
P3 = = = = 5 4 3 = 60
(5 3)! 2! 2 1
5

Therefore, there are 60 ways that 5 items may be selected 3 at a time.

Example: How many ways can 4 people be chosen and arranged in a straight line if there are 8 people to
choose from?

Solution: The word arranged is key in this example. It implies that the order is important. Therefore, we
can use the permutations formula.

8! 8! 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
P4 = = = = 8 7 6 5 = 1680
(8 4)! 4! 4 3 2 1
8
Example: In horse racing, a bet on an exacta in a race is won by correctly selecting the horses that finish 1st
and 2nd and you must select the horses in the correct order. The 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby had a
field of 20 horses. If a bettor randomly selects two of the horses for an exacta bet, what is the probability of
winning?

Solution: Because the order of the horses selected is important, we can use the permutations formula to
determine the total possible outcomes.
20! 20!
P2 = = = 20 19 = 380
(20 2)! 18!
20

Therefore the probability is 1/380.

Permutations Rule: (when some items are identical to others)

Sometimes we need to find the number of permutations when some of the items are identical to others. The
following variation of the permutations rule applies to such cases.

Requirements:
1. There are n items available, and some items are identical to others.
2. We select all of the n items (without replacement).
3. We consider rearrangements of distinct items to be different sequences.

If the preceding requirements are satisfied, and if there are n1 alike, n2 alike, nk alike, the number of
permutations (or sequences) of all items selected without replacement is

n!
n1! n 2 ! n k !
Example: How many arrangements of 10 red, 4 blue and 3 yellow balls are possible.

Solution: Because each ball of a particular color is indistinguishable from other balls of the same color, we
must use the permutations rule for indistinguishable items.

n! 17! 17 16 15 14 13 12 11
= = = 680,680
n1! n2 ! nk ! (10! )( 4! )(3! ) ( 4 3 2)(3 2)
Combinations Rule:
If we intend to select r items from n different items but do not take order into account we are really
concerned with possible combinations rather than permutations.

When different orderings of the same items are counted separately, we have a permutation problem, but
when different orderings of the same item are not counted separately, we have a combination problem.

Requirements:
1. There are n different items available.
2. We select r of the n items (without replacement).
3. We consider rearrangements of the same items to be the same. (The combination of ABC is the same
as CBA.)

If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number of combinations of r items selected from n different
items is:
n!
Cr =
(n r )! r!
n

Example: There are 8 members on a board of directors. If they must form a subcommittee of 6 members,
how many different subcommittees are possible?

Solution: Because the order of the committee members is not important, we will use the combinations rule.

8! 87
8 C6 = = = 28
(2!)6! 2
Example: The library is to be given 4 books as a gift. The books will be selected from a list of 17 titles. If
each book selected must have a different title, how many possible selections are there?

Solution: Because the ordering of the books is not important, we should use the combinations rule.

17! 17 16 15 14
C4 = = = 2,380
4 3 2
17
(13!)4!
Example: 8 basketball players are to be selected to play in a special game. The players will be selected from
a list of 27 players. If the players are selected randomly, what is the probability that the 8 tallest players will
be selected?

Solution: Because the ordering of the books is not important, we should use the combinations rule to find
the total possible outcomes.
27!
27 C8 = = 2,220,075
(19)!8!

1
Therefore the probability that the 8 tallest players will be selected is
2,220,075
Permutations versus Combinations:
When different orderings of the same items are to be counted separately, we have a permutation problem,
but when different orderings are not to be counted separately, we have a combination problem.

Example: Given the three letters A, B and C, how many combinations and permutations can you make from
all three letters?

Solution: There is 1 combination and six permutations of the three letters.

Combinations Permutations
ABC ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA

Example: In a certain lottery, five different numbers between 1 and 20 inclusive are drawn. These are the
winning numbers. To win the lottery, a person must select the correct 5 numbers in the same order in which
they were drawn. What is the probability of winning?

Solution: Because order is important, we should use the permutations rule to find the total possible
outcomes.
20!
20 P5 = = 1,860,480
(15)!

1
Therefore, the probability of winning is
1,860,480

Example: The organizer of a television show must select 5 people to participate in the show. The
participants will be selected from a list of 30 people who have written in to the show. If the participants are
selected randomly, what is the probability that the 5 youngest people will be selected?

Solution: Because the ordering of the books is not important, we should use the combinations rule to find
the total possible outcomes.

30!
30 C5 = = 142,506
(25)!5!

1
Therefore, the probability of picking the 5 youngest people is
142,506