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Solve using Nave, Simple Mean, Weighted Moving Average and Exponential Smothing Average Method
Note: For the weighted average method, the following weights will be followed: most recent year (0.6), year prior to
For the exponential smoothing method, the value of alpha is 0.4
Given:
YEAR ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST
1 111 100
2 123
3 234
4 324
5 345
Solution:
YEAR ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST(Nave) FORECAST (Simple Mean)
100 100
111 104.4
123 111.84
118.2 160.704
189.6 226.0224
Problem:
Solve using Nave, Simple Mean, Weighted Moving Average and Exponential Smothing Average Method
Note: For the weighted average method, the following weights will be followed: most recent year (0.6), year prior to
For the exponential smoothing method, the value of alpha is 0.4
Given:
YEAR ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST
1 116 102
2 132
3 143
4 153
5 167
Solution:
YEAR ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST(Nave) FORECAST (Simple Mean)
102 102
116 107.6
132 117.36
125.6 127.616
138.6 137.7696
Problem:
Solve using Nave, Simple Mean, Weighted Moving Average and Exponential Smothing Average Method
Note: For the weighted average method, the following weights will be followed: most recent year (0.6), year prior to
For the exponential smoothing method, the value of alpha is 0.4
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 205 203
2 212
3 232
4 245
5 256
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 213 211
2 234
3 278
4 289
5 300
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 244 215
2 267
3 287
4 296
5 301
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 312 311
2 325
3 342
4 351
5 363
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 455 345
2 475
3 480
4 489
5 501
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 284 246
2 289
3 299
4 306
5 311
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 678 567
2 698
3 709
4 723
5 758
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 690 634
2 734
3 756
4 789
5 800
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 1345 1045
2 1354
3 1389
4 1390
5 1401
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 356 345
2 378
3 390
4 399
5 407
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 900 897
2 933
3 945
4 950
5 961
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 805 802
2 813
3 828
4 834
5 845
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 589 567
2 595
3 603
4 611
5 621
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 467 444
2 489
3 494
4 500
5 511
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 370 359
2 381
3 394
4 400
5 413
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 659 645
2 684
3 693
4 700
5 708
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 905 890
2 925
3 947
4 960
5 971
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 2120 2115
2 2134
3 2145
4 2159
5 2167
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 800 790
2 834
3 847
4 869
5 875
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 501 490
2 516
3 537
4 545
5 564
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 911 902
2 926
3 934
4 945
5 967
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 1010 1006
2 1026
3 1035
4 1038
5 1043
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 21123 21100
2 21131
3 21145
4 21159
5 21167
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 3220 3200
2 3234
3 3240
4 3251
5 3267
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 478 445
2 489
3 500
4 512
5 516
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 505 500
2 513
3 518
4 523
5 530
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 523 515
2 534
3 546
4 550
5 561
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 621 610
2 634
3 645
4 650
5 657
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 660 650
2 678
3 698
4 713
5 745
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 812 800
2 823
3 834
4 845
5 867
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 423 400
2 435
3 456
4 478
5 489
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 1045 1000
2 1056
3 1078
4 1090
5 1100
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 267 250
2 289
3 300
4 309
5 315
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 578 555
2 585
3 596
4 600
5 613
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 890 887
2 895
3 900
4 905
5 910
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 665 654
2 678
3 689
4 700
5 712
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)
Given:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST
1 214 209
2 218
3 224
4 228
5 307
Solution:
YEARACTUAL DEMAND
FORECAST(Nave)
FORECAST
FORECAST
(Simple
(Weighted
FORECAST
Mean) Moving
(Exponential
Average)
Smoothing)