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Introduction
The establishment of a profitable and feasible plant is made possible with a good economic
evaluation whereby the economic potentials of the plant will be assessed. The output acquired
from the economic evaluation enables the investors to better evaluate their decision-making
pertaining to the acceptance or rejection of the proposal. A projects profitability is assessed based
on two important criteria namely the product cost as well as the cost of investment. Financial
planning is especially crucial in the development of a plant since its basis revolves around making
the right profit for the plant. Detailed and accurate cost estimation need to be performed by taking
into account all the contributing aspects including process equipment, raw material consumptions,
operating labor as well as capital investment, cost needed for manufacturing purpose, local taxes
and general expenses. The computation of discounted cash flow is performed following the cost
estimation process in order to evaluate the feasibility of the plant besides serving as a tool and
indicator of the plants payback period. The cost which is associated with the plant process is
comprised of
The total amount of cash inflow for this styrene monomer plant with the production
capacity of 231975.15 MT/year must be sustained at a high value in order to compensate for all
the cash outflow, thus hindering incurred losses at the end of this project. This chapter outlines the
rapid cost estimate as well the detailed estimate of the production of styrene monomers and the
calculations performed in United States Dollar (USD/$) and subsequently converted to Malaysian
Ringgit (MYR/RM) with the conversion rate of $1=RM 4.20. This plant is assumed to operate for
330days/year with a lifetime of 20 years.
Economic Potential
The economic potential (EP) analysis is done to evaluate the preliminary profitability of
styrene monomer production. The economic potential can be calculated as follow: The cost of
raw materials which are ethylene and benzene and the cost of product namely styrene are taken
as the basis to compute the economic potentials. The formulas of economic potential 1, 2 and 3
are shown in the following respectively:
The latest market price of the chemicals used in the styrene monomer plants are acquired
from reliable reference source as to ensure the precision of the economic analysis performed.
Ethylene:
350 330 24 28.05
= 77754.6
103
Benzene:
350 330 24 78.11
3
= 216520.92
10
4.2
Benzene = 740 216520.92 = 672,947,019.40 =
1
672.95
= 999.52
Total 999,516,339.40
The cost of product (styrene) and by-product (toluene) per year can be calculated as follow:
4.2
Styrene = 1250 231975.15 = 1,217.869
1
4.2
Toluene = 631.50 216520.92 = 33.36
1
= 1,251.23
Total 1,251,229,662.00
Table 43 shows the tariff rates for high voltage industries during peak and off-peak period provided
by Tenaga Nasional Berhad. This serves as the reference for the tariff rates of industries in
Kemamam, Terengganu.
million
= 405.88 year
million
= 209.13 year
The economic potentials of styrene monomers plant are assessed by taking into account the
sales revenue of the plant and the total capital investment in acquiring the raw materials. With that,
an insight into the gross earnings of the styrene monomer plant will be gained from the economic
analysis. The economic potentials calculated for the plant which is assumed to operate 330 days
per annum with 30 days of shutoff are summarized in table X. As the implementation of heat
integration leads to huge saving in the overall cost as indicated by the improved economic potential
3 after heat integration compared to before heat integration, it is recommended that the process of
this plant is to be carried out with heat integration.
million million
EP 1 = (1,217.87 999.52) = 218.35
year year
million million
EP 2 = (1,251,23 999.52) = 251.71
year year
million million
EP 3 (Before HI) = (251.71 405.88) = 154.17
year year
million million
EP 3 (After HI) = (251.71 209.13) = 42.58
year year
From the economic analysis performed through the computation of economic potentials
1,2 and 3 respectively, it can be deduced that the establishment and operation of styrene monomers
plant in Malaysia which utilizes ethylene and benzene as the raw materials is economically feasible
and beneficial.
Capital Investment
Capital investment is defined as the amount of expenditure needed to build the plant and
subsequently putting the plant into operation. It is equivalent to the sum of fixed capital investment
as well as the working capital. Fixed capital investment is expressed as the cost required to
construct the plant as well as equipping the plant with required manufacturing facilities. It is
constituted of two contributing components which are manufacturing as direct cost and
nonmanufacturing as indirect cost. On the other hand, working capital encompasses the necessities
for the normal plant operation. It includes the cost of raw materials and intermediates used in the
production process and the finished product inventories.
The approximation of the capital cost of chemical process plants is performed by estimating
the purchased cost of equipment for the designed process while the gauging of other costs can be
done as factors of the equipment cost (Sinnott, 2005). Peters & Timmerhaus stated that the
accuracy of the estimation method based on the knowledge pertaining to the major equipment
items is estimated up to 25%. This is attributed to the incomplete characterizations constituting the
correlations making up the cost equations as well as the market conditions, qualities of construction
and the variations among manufacturers. The capital cost of
Purchased Equipment
The cost of purchased equipment including distillation column, heat exchangers, coolers,
packed bed reactors, mixer and storage tanks are approximated using the purchased and installed
cost of equipment equations which utilize the information pertaining to general dimensions of
equipment such as diameter, height and heat exchange area. Marshall and Swift equipment cost
index (M&S) of year 2011 is employed to perform the estimation of purchased equipment cost.
The value of M& S is 1536.5 during 2011.Table X shows the cost of all purchased equipment
needed for the styrene monomer production plant.
Distillation Column
where
= diameter (m)
= height (m)
where
A = heat exchanger area in m2 (20 < A < 500 m2 /shell)
Fm = correction factor for material
Fd = correction factor for design type
Fp = correction factor for design pressure
Cooler
Purchased cost ($) = (M&S/280)(474.7 A0.65 Fc )
Installed cost ($) =(M&S/280)(474.7 A0.65 )(2.29 + Fc )
Fc = Fm (Fd + Fp )
where
A = heat exchanger area in m2 (20 < A < 500 m2 /shell)
Fm = correction factor for material
Fd = correction factor for design type
Fp = correction factor for design pressure
where
A = heat exchanger area in m2 (20 < A < 500 m2 /shell)
Fm = correction factor for material
Fd = correction factor for design type
Fp = correction factor for design pressure
where
both D(diameter) and H(height) are expressed in meter
P is expressed in bar
Fm = correction factor for material
Fp = correction factor for design pressure
Purchased cost ($) Installed cost ($) Total cost ($) Total cost (RM)
663522.9825 968398.5451 1631921.528 6854070.416
686967.4436 1002615.268 1689582.712 7096247.388
586637.3271 903305.3406 1489942.668 6257759.204
540464.8435 883622.5236 1424087.367 5981166.942
511942.1881 837603.0614 1349545.249 5668090.048
Total cost of packed bed reactors 31857334.00
Pump
Purchased cost ($) = (M&S/280)(517.5)(BHP)0.82 Fc
Installed cost ($) =(M&S/280(517.5)(BHP)0.82 (2.11 + Fc )
Fc = F d
where
BHP = brake horsepower; 30<BHP<10000
Fd = correction factor for design type
Gael D. Ulrich (1984), A Guide to Chemical Engineering Process Design and Economics,John Wiley and Sons, Inc.,
New York
Table X: Purchased Cost Equipment
Equipment Amount Purchased Cost of
Equipment (RM)
Heat exchanger 7 3,905,924.70
Heater 3 1,674,706.12
Cooler 3 1,259,436.75
Distillation column 6 1,672,748.12
Three phase separator 1 631,180.00
Packed bed reactor 5 31,857,334.00
Pump 10 63,642.53
Compressor 1 2,208,315.81
Mixer 6 240,793.21
Splitter 3 114,867.3
Storage tank 3 879,899.58
Total 44,508,848.12
All of the cost of major and minor equipment installed for the styrene monomer production
plant is computed as shown in Table X and the total purchased cost of equipment is RM
44,508,848.12 with the currency rate of $ 4.20 to RM 1. The purchased cost of equipment (PCE)
can be used to calculate the fixed capital investment and the working capital.
Working Capital
Working capital is defined as the supplemental capital required, over and above the fixed
capital, to begin operating the plant up to the stage in which profit is acquired. Sinnott (2005)
stated that the working capital of a project is computed as 15% of the total fixed capital cost.
i) Fixed charges which indicates expenses that are remain relatively constant throughout the
operation period and are independent of the rate of production of the plant.
ii) Variable production cost which is the cost directly associated with the manufacturing
operation.
iii) Plant overhead cost which are the expenses similar to the fixed charges which do not vary
despite the changes in the production rate of plant.
According to Sinnott (2005), the maintenance and repair of a plant is calculated as 5 10% of the
fixed capital investment. The factor of 10% is assumed for this styrene monomer plant.
= 0.1 x RM 219,428,621.2
= RM 21,942,862.12
Operating Supplies
Douglas (1988) stated that the rough estimation of operating supplies cost is computed as 10% of
the total maintenance and repair cost.
= 0.1 x RM 21,942,862.12
= RM 2,194,286.212
Operating Labor
Peters and Timmerhaus (1991) stated that 40 workers are needed per day in a process plant by
taking into account the basis of the typical labour requirements for process equipment whereby 2
working shifts are implemented and 10 workers/day are required for each shift. This is equivalent
to 20 workers/day. According to Malaysia Industrial Development Authority, MIDA, (2013), a
semi-skilled labourer has salary scheme of approximately USD 463/month.
= RM 466,704
According to Sinnott (2005), the cost of direct supervision and clerical labour required for a plant
is calculated as 30% of operating labor cost.
Direct supervision and clerical labour cost = 0.3 x Operating labor cost
= 0.3 x RM 466,704
= RM 140,011.20
Laboratory Charges
Laboratory charges is estimated to be 20% of the operating labor cost (Sinnott, 2005).
= 0.2 x RM 466,704
= RM 93,340.80
Plant Overheads
Sinnott (2005) indicated that plant overheads can be calculated as 50% of the operating labor
cost.
= 0.5 x RM 466,704
= RM 233,352
Capital Charges
Sinnott (2005) suggested that capital charges constitute 10% of the fixed capital investment.
= 0.1 x RM 219,428,621.2
= RM 21,942,862.12
Local Taxes
= 0.02 x RM 219,428,621.2
= RM 4,388,572.424
Insurance
= 0.01 x RM 219,428,621.2
= RM 2,194,286.212
Similarly to the insurance cost a process plant, royalties and license fees is computed as 1% of
the fixed capital investment.
= 0.01 x RM 219,428,621.2
= RM 2,194,286.212
The table below summarizes the computation of total fixed operating cost of the styrene
monomer plant.
Variable operating cost is dependent on the rate of production and includes the cost of
raw materials, miscellaneous and utilities.
The raw material cost for styrene monomer plant is approximately estimated to be MYR
999,516,339.40.
Miscellaneous Materials
Miscellaneous materials are the materials utilized in the plant operation aside from the raw
materials and maintenance materials. These materials encompass
i) Cleaning material
ii) Accessories and instrument charts
iii) Pipe installation gaskets
iv) Personal protective equipment
The cost of miscellaneous materials is approximated to be 10% of maintenance and repair cost
(Sinnott, 2005).
Miscellaneous materials cost = 0.1 x Maintenance and repair cost
= 0.1 x RM 21,942,862.12
= RM 2,194,286.21
Utilities
Utilities are used in the styrene monomer plant for cooling and heating purposes. The cost of
utilities is estimated as 10% of fixed capital investment calculated earlier.
= 0.1 x RM 219,428,621.2
= RM 21,942,862.12
Variable operating cost = Cost of raw material + Cost of Miscellaneous + Cost of utilities
= RM 1,023,653,487.73
The tabulation of variable operating cost is summarized in Table X.
= RM 1,023,653,487.73 + RM 55,790,563.3
= RM 1,079,444,051.03
The general expenses of a plant consist of the administrative costs, distribution and marketing
expenses and expenses for research and development (R&D). The table below shows the
tabulation for the general expenses of the styrene monomer plant.
Annual operating expenditure, OPEX = Direct operational cost + Indirect operational cost
= RM 1,079,444,051.03 + RM 35,169,250.91
= RM 1,114,613,301.94
Estimation of Total Revenue
The revenue generated from the selling of the main product, styrene as well as the by-
product, toluene is the source of cash inflow for the styrene monomer plant. Assuming that the
plant operated for 330 days per year with 30 days of shut-off, the total revenue generated is
calculated using the equation shown below.
Annual sales revenue = [ () ( ]
The total revenue generated for the styrene monomer plant is summarized in table X.
Since the total annual revenue of the plant is not equivalent to the gross earning attributed
to the expenditures which must be deducted from the revenue, the gross earning is calculated as
following.
= RM 1,251,229,662.00 RM 1,114,613,301.94
= RM 136,616,360.06
Profitability Analysis
Assumptions:
Start-up Period
Depreciation
, =
Where,
B- Total capital investment
SV- Salvage value (2% of fixed capital cost)
N- Total plant life
270,151,559.90 (0.02 216,121,248)
= = 13,183,396
20
Cumulative Cash Flow
2733804574
= 100% = 27.34%
20 500000000
The ROR=27.34% which is greater than the minimum attractive rate of return (MARR=15%)
and between 25% to 30%. Therefore, the project is economically feasible to be built.
Payback Period
The payback period of the styrene production plant is 2 years, and 5 years from the initial startup.
The payback period of this plant is less than 5 years and it is proven that it is profitable to build
the styrene plant.
Tabulation of Net Present Worth (NPW)
Net present worth is calculated to determine the total value that could be obtained over a period.
This would help to provide a better understanding and accurate results on the payback period. The
final net present worth is positive value indicate that the project is profitable.
=
=
(1 + )
=1
Where,
- estimated cash net flow in year n
- interest rate
- project life, year
Based on table X, the project can be considered as profitable as the total net present worth of the
project is RM 1,205,704,900.80 at the end of the project.