PROBABILITY

THE PROBABILITY CONCEPT AND SOME PROPERTIES

Probability analysis is based on the following simple postulates.

Postulate 1. 0 P(E) 1 for any simple event E.

Postulate 2. The probability for any event E is the sum of the probability of the simple events that
constitute E.
Postulate 3. P(S) = 1, where S is the sample space, and P() = 0, where is the null space.

Approaches to Assigning Probabilities

1. A Priori or Classical Probability probability is determined even before the experiment is

performed using the following rule:

If an experiment can result in any one of n(S) different equally likely outcomes, and if
exactly n(A) of these outcomes correspond to event A, then the probability of event
A is

. ()
() = =
. ()

2. A posteriori or Relative Frequency or Empirical Probability probability is determined by

repeating the experiment a large number of times using the following rule:

.
() =
.

3. Subjective Probability probability is determined by the use of intuition, personal beliefs, and
other indirect information.

Theorems on Probabilities of Events

Theorem. (Additive Rule) If A and B are any two events, the

 ( ) = () + () ( )

Corollary. If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

( ) = () + ()

Corollary. If A1, A2,,An are mutually exclusive, then

(1 2 ) = (1) + (2) + + ()

Theorem. If A and Ac are complementary events, then

() + ( ) = 1,

A or A the complement of an event A with respect to S contains all elements of S that are not in A
and is the event that A does not occur

Note: some relationship between events can be illustrated by means of a Venn diagram.

Examples:

1. If a card is drawn at random from a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability that the card is:
a. Red?
b. Red and face card?
c. Red or face card?
d. Jack or Ace?
e. King, Queen, or Jack?

2. If two dice are thrown and the sum of dots are noted, what is the probability that the sum is:
a. At least 10?
b. Even and a perfect square?
c. Even or a perfect square?
d. 5 and 6
3. A poker hand consists of 5 cards, the order is conventionally disregarded from a well-shuffled
deck of 52 cards. What is the probability of having
a. 3 Kings and 2 Queens
b. 4 red cards and 1 black card
c. 4 aces and a Jack

4. A hat contains 40 marbles, 16 of which are red and 24 are green. If one marble is randomly
selected out of this hat, what is the probability that this marble is
a. red?
b. green?
1. An experiment consists of asking 3 women at random if they wash their dishes with brand X
dishwashing liquid.
a.List the elements of the sample space using the letters Y for yes and N for no.
b. List the elements of S corresponding to the event A that at least two of the women use brand X.

2. An experiment involves tossing a pair of dice, one black and one red.
a. List the elements of the sample space
b. List the elements of the sample space that corresponds to:
A = event that the sum is less than 5
B = event that 6 occurs on either die
C = event that a number greater than 4 appears on the black die
D = event that the sum is greater than 8 and a number greater than 4 comes up on the black die.

3. Find the errors in each of the following statements:

a. The probabilities that an automobile salesperson will sell 0, 1, 2, or 3 cars on any given day in
February are 0.19, 0.38, 0.29, and 0.15, respectively.
b. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.40 and the probability that it will not rain tomorrow
is 0.52.
c. The probabilities that a printer will make 0,1, 2, 3, or 4 or more mistakes in printing a document
are, 0.19, 0.34, -0.25, 0.43, and 0.29, respectively.
d. On a single draw from a deck of playing cards, the probability of selecting a heart is , the
probability of selecting a black card is and the probability of selecting both a heart and a black card
is 0.

4 An organization sponsored a raffle where they were to sell all 500 tickets sequentially numbered
from 001 to 500. Find the probability that the winning number
a. Has the same three digits
b. Ends in 3
c. Contain the digits 1,2,3 (not necessarily in that order)

7. The geographical distribution of hometown of 80 students of CvSU-CBE is given as: 50 from Luzon,
10 from Visayas, and 20 from Mindanao. Suppose three students are selected. Find the probability
that
a. They all come from any of the three places
b. No student comes from Luzon and Mindanao

8.
9. The probability that a student will pass Statistics is 0.50 and the probability that he will pass English
is 0.80. The probability that he will pass both is 0.60. What is the probability that the student will pass
at least one of the two subjects?

10. What is the probability that an even number or a 3 will appear when a fair die is tossed?

11. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is 0.73. What is the probability that it will be sunny
tomorrow?

12. A box contains 6 red and 4 black balls. Two balls from the box are drawn one at a time without
replacement. What is the probability that the second ball is red if it is known that the first is red?

13. The balls used in selecting the numbers for bingo carry the numbers 1,2,3,75. If one of the balls
is selected at random, what is the probability that it is a number less than or equal to 15?
14. If three of twenty tires are defective and four of them are randomly chosen for inspection, what is
the probability that one of the defective tires will be included?

15. If an airlines records show that 468 of 600 of its jets from San Francisco to Phoenix arrived on
time, what is the probability that any one of the airlines jets from San Francisco to Phoenix will not
arrive on time?

16. Harry Potter is faced with the problem of opening a safe with 10 buttons numbered from 0 to 9
without using his magic. The safe can be opened by pressing three buttons, not necessarily distinct, in
correct order.
a. What is the probability that Harry will hit the right combination?
b. Realizing that the probability of getting the right combination is too small Harry thought of a way
of swinging the odds in his favor. He pulverized the lead from a pencil and blew the powder onto
the buttons, revealing three buttons that have been pressed many times before. What is the
probability that Harry will be able to open the safe in a single trial?

17. A bowl contains 15 red beads, 30 white beads, 20 blue beads, and 7 black beads. If one of the
beads is drawn at random, what are the probabilities that it will be
a. Red beads
b. White or blue beads
c. Black beads
d. Neither white nor black

18. If the probabilities are respectively, 0.92, 0.33 and 0.29 that a person vacationing in Boracay, will
visit Palawan, or both, what is the probability that a person vacationing there will visit at least one of
the two areas?

19. The probabilities that a student will get an A or a B or a C in a Math course is 0.09, 0.15, and 0.53.
What is the probability that a student will get a grade lower than C?

20. If the probability of passing Statistics is 0.65, what is the probability of failing the subject?

21 A jeepney driver buys spare part X and Y for his vehicle at a bargain shop. The probability that X is
defective is 0.10 and the probability that Y is defective is 0.05. Determine the following probabilities:
a. Both parts are defective
b. Both parts are good
c. X is good, Y is defective

23. A box contains 12 black balls and 8 white balls. Two balls are drawn in succession.
a. Find the following probabilities if the balls are drawn with replacement:
a.1. A black ball is drawn then another black ball is drawn.
a.2 A black, then a white ball is drawn.
a.3 Two white balls are drawn.
a.4 Both balls are of the same color.
b. Answer the questions in (a) if the balls are drawn without replacement.
5.
6. The probability that a student passes Stat 101 is 0.60, and the probability that he passes Comm II
is 0.85. If the probability that he passes at least one of the two courses is 0.95, what us the
probability that he will pass both courses? Fail both Stat 101 and Comm II?

7. An oil-prospecting firm plans to drill two exploratory wells. Past evidence shows that the
probability that neither well produces oil is 0.8; the probability that exactly one well produces oil
is 0.18; and the probability that both wells produce oil is 0.02. What is the probability that at most
one well produces oil? At least one?

8. In the toss of a fair coin 4 times, what is the probability of no head in the toss? At least one head?

PROBABILITY STATISTICS

Definition. The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has
occurred is called a conditional probability. It is defined by the equation

P( A B)
P( B \ A) if P( A) 0
P( A)

P(BA) is read as probability of B given A.

Examples:

1. A random sample of 100 insurance claims are classified below according to the type of policy and
whether the claim is fraudulent or not.

a. Find the probability of a fraudulent claim given that such a claim is for a fire policy.

b. Find the probability that a claim for a fire policy is selected given that such a claim is fraudulent.

Categorization of Insurance Claims

Type of Policy
Category Fire Auto Others Total
Fraudulent 6 1 3 10
Nonfraudulent 14 29 47 90
Total 20 30 50 100
2. The probability that a student passes Stat 101 is 0.60, the probability that he passes Comm II is
0.85, the probability that he passes both subjects is 0.5. If the student passes Stat 101, what is the
probability that the student will pass Comm II?

Definition. Two events A and b are said to be independent if anyone of the following
conditions is satisfied:

(a) P(A|B) = P(A) if P(B)>0

(b) P(B|A) = P(B) if B(A)>0
(c) P(AB) = P(A) P(B)

Otherwise, the events are said to be dependent.

Example:

1. Consider the following events in a toss of a single dice:

A. Observe an odd number

B. Observe an even number

Are A and B independent events?

2. The probability that Robert will correctly answer the toughest question in an exam is . The
probability that Ana will correctly answer the same question is 4/5. Find the probability that
both will answer the question correctly, assuming that they do not copy from each other.