NOVEMBER 1998 TAPIA ET AL.

1497

Estimation of Convective Rainfall from Lightning Observations

ALBERTO TAPIA AND JAMES A. SMITH
Department of Civil Engineering and Operations Research, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

MICHAEL DIXON
Research Applications Program, National Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado
(Manuscript received 27 January 1997, in final form 30 December 1997)

ABSTRACT
The objective of this study is to develop a technique to use lightning observations for estimating convective
rainfall. A framework for rainfall estimation is developed in which key elements are 1) the rainfalllightning
ratio, that is, the convective rainfall mass per cloud-to-ground lightning flash; 2) the spatial distribution of rainfall
relative to flash locations; and 3) the temporal distribution of rainfall relative to the time of lightning occurrence.
These three elements are examined through a study of 22 summer thunderstorms in the domain covered by the
Melbourne, Florida, WSR-88D radar during August of 1992 and 1993. The analyses are carried out by combining
lightning observations from the National Lightning Detection Network with storm parameters computed from
3D reflectivity observations using the Thunderstorm Identification Tracking and Nowcasting storm-tracking and
analysis algorithms. The effect of the prevailing convective regime on the variability of lightningrainfall
relationships is investigated. The rainfall estimation procedure is implemented and tested for a thunderstorm
that occurred on 20 August 1992. Striking similarities in the spatial distribution of rainfall estimates are observed
for the rainfall maps derived from lightning observations and those derived from WSR-88D reflectivity obser-
vations. Rainfall estimates derived from lightning observations are of potential use for short-term prediction of
flash floods, especially in regions of poor radar coverage. Potential uses of this method also include correction
of radar-estimated rainfall for range effects.

1. Introduction personal communication) make lightning data appealing

The link between lightning and rainfall has been doc-
umented by researchers for many years. [See Uman
(1987) for a historical review of lightning studies; also
Shackford (1960) and Marshall and Radhakant (1978).]
Techniques for directly estimating rainfall from cloud-
to-ground (CG) lightning observations have also been
explored by previous investigators (see, for example,
Piepgrass and Krider 1982; Buechler et al. 1990). The
objective of this study is to develop a method for es-
timating convective rainfall from lightning observa-
tions.
Lightning networks cover the whole of the contiguous
United States and are relatively inexpensive to install
and maintain. The short lag times between observation
and operational availability (35 s) (R. B. Pyle, 1996,
* The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by
the National Science Foundation.
Corresponding author address: Dr. James A. Smith, Department
of Civil Engineering and Operations Research, School of Engineer-
ing/Applied Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
E-mail: jsmith@radap.princeton.edu
for application in short-term forecasting of flash floods.
The potential for heavy rainfall detection from lightning
observations is augmented by satelliteborne sensors. Of
particular importance are the Lightning Imaging Sensor
(LIS) and the Lightning Mapping Sensor (LMS) (see
Christian et al. 1989). Lightning data could be used to
provide rainfall estimates in areas with poor radar cov-
erage. Lightning could also provide useful information
in mountainous regions where topography hinders the
use of radar. Rainfall estimation over the sea beyond
radar coverage but within lightning detection range
would be another application of this method. Potential
uses also include correction of radar-estimated rainfall
for range effects. Radar problems due to increasing sam-
pling volume size and beam height with range lead to
inaccurate rainfall estimates at long ranges. Lightning
data have no such range effects. If a method for rainfall
estimation based on lightning observations were proven
robust, it could be calibrated at ranges close to the radar
and then used to correct radar estimates at long ranges.
A framework for rainfall estimation is developed in
which the key elements are 1) the rainfalllightning ratio
(RLR), that is, the convective rainfall mass per CG light-
ning flash; 2) the spatial distribution of rainfall relative

q 1998 American Meteorological Society

1498 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY VOLUME 37

to flash locations; and 3) the temporal distribution of

rainfall relative to the time of lightning occurrence.
These three elements are examined through intercom-
parisons of lightning observations from the National
Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) (Cummins et al.
1996) and 3D volume scan reflectivity observations for
22 summer thunderstorms in the domain covered by the
Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D)
(Crum and Alberty 1993) radar at Melbourne, Florida.
The 3D reflectivity observations are converted into
storm parameters using the TITAN (Thunderstorm Iden-
tification Tracking and Nowcasting) storm-tracking and
analysis algorithms (see Dixon and Wiener 1993).
The study was carried out in the Florida Peninsula,
a complex climatological region because of the inter-
actions between sea breezes and synoptic flow. The ef-
fects of the prevailing convective regime on the vari-
ability of lightningrainfall relationships are investi-
gated. These results are of importance for assessing the
potential variability of these relationships in Florida as
well as in other regions with complex interactions be-
tween topography and synoptic-scale flow.
The organization of the paper is as follows. A data
description is introduced in section 2. Climatological FIG. 1. Domain of study. The star indicates the location of the
summaries of lightning and rain gauge observations in WSR-88D Melbourne radar.
the Florida study region are presented in section 3, to
motivate the analyses in subsequent sections. Analyses
of 22 summer thunderstorms are presented in section 4. Climatological and rain observations from the National
The RLR and the assessment of storm-to-storm vari- Climatic Data Center taken from 187 U.S. cooperative
ability in RLR are discussed in section 5. The framework and National Weather Service sites in Florida spanning
for rainfall estimation from lightning observations is 25 years were used to calculate diurnal and annual rain-
presented in section 6. An example application to verify fall cycles.
the performance of the method is presented in section Figure 2 illustrates lightning and radar observations
7, and the summary and conclusions are presented in used in this study for a storm on 20 August 1992. Vol-
section 8. ume scan reflectivity observations are converted to a
3D grid with a 1-km resolution, using the nearest-neigh-
bor algorithm of Dixon and Wiener (1993). A 0.5-km
2. Data description CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) is
The domain of this study is an area covered by the shown in Fig. 2 for 2348 UTC. Crosses indicate loca-
WSR-88D radar at Melbourne, Florida. It is 460 km 3 tions of CG lightning flashes from 2346 to 2350 UTC.
460 km in size and is centered at the radar (Fig. 1). The Lightning observations are concentrated in the high re-
radar data used in this study comprise storm event vol- flectivity regions (reflectivity values greater than 40
ume scan reflectivity observations from the Melbourne dBZ). The stratiform rain area with reflectivity values
WSR-88D during 1992 and 1993. between 20 and 40 dBZ and located to the southwest
Cloud-to-ground lightning observations for the con- of the intense reflectivity area has a lower spatial flash
tiguous United States are available from the NLDN. density.
Observations consist of the location (latitude and lon-
gitude), polarity, and intensity of each CG lightning 3. Climatological analyses
flash detected by the network. The average detection
efficiency of the network is 85% (R. B. Pyle, personal Climatological analyses of NLDN lightning obser-
communication). The spatial resolution of the obser- vations and rain gauge observations illustrate further the
vations is 1/1000 of a degree of latitude and longitude, link between convective rainfall and lightning. Notable
and the temporal resolution is 1 ms (R. B. Pyle, personal features of the climatology of Florida are its annual and
communication). Data from the NLDN for the period diurnal cycles (Figs. 3 and 4). The annual cycles of
19901993 were used. rainfall and lightning (Fig. 3) exhibit sharp warm season
Rain gauge observations at 1-min time resolution peaks. Practically all of the lightning in Florida is linked
were obtained from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to summer thunderstorms. During the 4-month period
rain gauge network for the summers of 1992 and 1993. from June through September, approximately 85% of
NOVEMBER 1998 TAPIA ET AL. 1499

FIG. 2. Radar reflectivity at the 0.5-km CAPPI of the 20 August 1992 storm. The white crosses represent the location of CG lightning
flashes occurring between 2346 and 2350 UTC.

the total CG lightning occurs, with peak occurrence rates
in July.
The diurnal cycle of rainfall and lightning for the
warm season is shown in Fig. 4 (for related analyses,
see Lopez and Holle 1986; Maier et al. 1984; Schwartz
and Bosart 1979). Most of the rainfall occurs between
1300 and 1900 LST, peaking between 1600 and 1700
LST, 3 or 4 h after sea-breeze convergence is most in-
tense over the peninsula (Burpee 1979). There is a sharp
contrast between the diurnal cycle of rainfall over land
and surrounding coastal waters, as estimated using man-
ually digitized radar datasets. The rainfall maximum
takes place early in the day over the ocean, later in the
day at the coast, and even later inland (Baeck and Smith
1995). A significant lag between the diurnal cycles of
lightning and rainfall in late afternoon (Fig. 4) was seen
during the summer thunderstorms in 1992 and 1993. A
similar lag between rainfall and lightning was shown
by Watson et al. (1994) for precipitation in Arizona.
This lag is linked to the frequent development of a strat-
iform cloud area that persists during and after the dis-
sipating stage of the storms. These shields produce light-
to-moderate stratiform rainfall and little lightning. The
diurnal cycle of rainfall in the cold season is not as
pronounced as in the warm season due to the noncon-
vective origin of much of the precipitation.
1500 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY VOLUME 37

FIG. 3. Annual distribution of CG lightning and rainfall in Florida. FIG. 4. Diurnal distribution of CG lightning and rainfall during the
warm season (MarchSeptember) for the domain shown in Fig. 1.
Lightning observations provide useful climatological
information on the spatial distribution of convective
rainfall, as seen in Fig. 5 (see also Orville and Silver 4. Storm-scale analyses
1997). Lightning frequency in units of CG flashes per Storm-scale assessments of rainfalllightning rela-
square kilometer during the warm season peaks in the tionships were performed through Lagrangian analyses
Cape Canaveral area, and although it is only partly vis- of lightning and radar observations from 22 storms dur-
ible in Fig. 5, a maximum exists at Tampa Bay, a lo- ing August of 1992 and 1993. The Thunderstorm Iden-
cation with one of the highest lightning frequencies in tification Tracking and Nowcasting (TITAN) storm-
the world (Orville and Silver 1994). These two maxima tracking algorithm (Dixon and Wiener 1993) was used
occur because areas of convex shoreline curvature tend
to favor intense sea-breeze convergence and thus con-
vection (Pielke 1974; Lopez and Holle 1986). A low
lightning frequency of six CG flashes per square kilo-
meter per warm season occurs at Lake Okeechobee. This
minimum is related to the subsidence caused by the lake-
breeze circulation. Breezes from the lake toward the
surrounding land create divergence at the surface and
convergence aloftconditions unfavorable for the de-
velopment of convection.
The geographic variability of lightning frequency
over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent coastal waters
is linked to the low-level wind pattern. Two main cir-
culation types play an important role in determining the
geographic pattern of convection (Blanchard and Lopez
1985; Hodandish et al. 1997). For the east coast, on
days of onshore flow, the sea breeze moves inland, aided
by the low-level wind in the early morning, while the
west coast sea breeze remains stationary near the coast,
typically a few kilometers inland (Reap 1994). This
causes the coastal gradient of lightning frequency on
the eastern side of the peninsula, seen in Fig. 5, and a
zone of high lightning frequency along the west coast.
On days of offshore flow on the eastern coast, the pattern
is reversed. The east coast sea-breeze convergence zone
tends to remain anchored at the coast with intense light- FIG. 5. Spatial distribution of CG lightning during the warm season
ning occurring there, while the low-level wind pushes (MarchSeptember) for the domain shown in Fig. 1. Units are CG
the zone of convergence along the west coast inland. flashes per square kilometer.
NOVEMBER 1998 TAPIA ET AL.
FIG. 6. Time series of CG lightning and convective (reflectivity
higher than 35 dBZ ) rainfall flux for a storm on 20 August 1992.
to compute storm parameters from volume scan reflec-
tivity observations. Storm parameters that are computed
for each volume scan include precipitation area, location
of the reflectivity centroid, storm top height, storm vol-
ume, rainfall flux, and spatially averaged rainfall rate.
Conversion of reflectivity to rainfall rate is based on the
standard WSR-88D ZR relationship (Z 5 300 3 R1.4 ).
A 55-dBZ reflectivity cap is used in ZR conversions
FIG. 7. Time series of CG lightning, cloud-top height (35-dBZ contour), and reflectivity
centroid height for the storm shown in Fig. 6.
1501
to mitigate the effects of hail (see Austin 1987; Smith
et al. 1996).
Figure 2 shows the spatial distribution of lightning
and reflectivity for the 20 August 1992 storm at the time
of peak lightning frequency. Figures 6 and 7 illustrate
the temporal evolution of the storm, as reflected in TI-
TAN analyses of storm properties, and the relation of
storm properties to lightning frequency. Figure 6 shows
a high correlation between the temporal evolution of
rainfall flux and lightning frequency. The peak lightning
frequency was 227 flashes per 5 min, while the peak
rainfall flux was 16 056 m 3 s21 , or 1.6 3 10 7 kg s21 .
The sharp increases in lightning frequency and rainfall
flux from 2240 to 2310 UTC coincide closely. Similarly,
rain flux and lightning frequency are closely related dur-
ing the 4-h dissipating phase from 0000 to 0400 UTC.
It was observed from the radar signature of each of
the storms that those with the tallest clouds produced
the highest lightning frequencies and rainfall flux rates.
These observations agree with those made by several
investigators (Battan 1965; Holle and Maier 1982; Wat-
son et al. 1995). In general, the period of highest light-
ning rates immediately follows the time when the cloud
reaches its maximum vertical development and the re-
flectivity centroid is highest within the cloud, as shown
in Fig. 7 for one of the storms. These two features are
closely associated with lightning frequency (see Uman
1987, for review of charge separation mechanisms).
For all of the storms, the initiation of lightning was
preceded by reflectivities greater than 35 dBZ at the
2108C level (usually around 6.5 km). The significance
of strong, midlevel reflectivity values was demonstrated
by Hondl and Eilts (1994) for the Florida Peninsula.
1502 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY VOLUME 37

TABLE 1. Table of parameters computed for the 22 storms studied. Date, duration, peak lightning frequency, peak rainfall flux, convective
rainfall mass, number of CG flashes, and RLR.

Peak lightning
frequency Peak Convective Lightning RLR
Duration (CG flashes/ rainfall flux rainfall mass counts (106 kg/
Date (Min) 5 min) (m3 s21) (106 kg) (CG flashes) CG flash)
2 Aug 1992 a 64 45 3600 11.3 371 30
2 Aug 1992 b 117 82 7600 32.6 988 33
2 Aug 1992 c 106 67 6500 23.3 719 32
2 Aug 1992 d 98 87 8800 41.7 1077 39
2 Aug 1992 e 189 147 15 700 90.7 2642 34
2 Aug 1992 f 80 93 3900 14.6 474 31
2 Aug 1992 g 99 64 5900 21.3 575 37
12 Aug 1992 a 100 70 6100 21.3 739 29
20 Aug 1992 a 340 227 16 100 109.7 3557 31
13 Aug 1993 a 87 65 14 000 50.4 573 88
13 Aug 1993 b 92 32 5300 21.6 352 61
13 Aug 1993 c 87 81 11 600 38.8 706 55
22 Aug 1993 a 51 104 14 800 38.6 801 48
22 Aug 1993 b 66 73 5400 7.7 216 36
22 Aug 1993 c 124 48 11 300 47.1 581 81
22 Aug 1993 d 56 88 4900 12.5 530 24
24 Aug 1993 c 178 49 8500 54.5 704 77
24 Aug 1993 d 101 38 8400 35.9 352 102
26 Aug 1993 a 51 48 44 400 115.8 317 365
26 Aug 1993 b 62 46 13 000 35.3 261 135
26 Aug 1993 a 293 114 25 300 172.1 1288 134
28 Aug 1993 b 51 73 6400 13.3 204 65

Buechler and Goodman (1990) proposed an algorithm
for the forecasting of electrical activity based on the
presence of 40-dBZ reflectivities at the 2108C level in
clouds exceeding 9 km in height. These two features
were systematically present in the radar signature of the
thunderstorms of this study.
Peak lightning frequencies for the 22 storms ranged
from 32 to 227 flashes per 5 min. The total number of
CG flashes ranged from 204 to 3557. It was observed
that thunderstorms that produce the highest number of
CG discharges have the highest lightning frequencies
(with a correlation coefficient of 0.92). No correlation
was found between storm duration and peak lightning
frequency. A similar lack of correlation had been ob-
served by Peckham et al. (1984) in the Tampa Bay area.
The convective rain mass increased significantly with
the peak rain-flux rates, giving a correlation of 0.79 for
the set of storms. Table 1 shows storm parameters ob-
tained for the 22 storms. For the 22 storms studied, time
series of CG lightning frequencies and convective rain
flux were compared. The average correlation coefficient
between the lightning frequency and rainfall-flux time
series was 0.6.
5. Rainfalllightning ratio analyses
For each of the 22 storms, the total convective rainfall
mass was divided by the total number of CG flashes to
obtain an estimate of the RLR, that is, the convective
rainfall mass per CG flash. RLR values ranged from 24
to 365 3 10 6 kg per flash, being highly skewed toward
low values. Only three storms had RLR values above
100 3 10 6 kg per flash. For the 22 storms, the median
RLR was 43 3 10 6 kg per flash.
Table 2 gives information on the atmospheric con-
ditions for the days on which the storms occurred. The

TABLE 2. Sounding and lightning data for the storm days studied. Date and hour of sounding (UTC), mean wind vector (310 km MSL)
direction and speed, CAPE, average RLR, and daily CG lightning counts for the domain shown in Fig. 1.

Daily lightning
Wind direction Wind speed CAPE Average RLR counts
Date (Deg north) (m s21) (J kg21) (106 kg/CG flash) (CG flashes)
1000 UTC 2 Aug 1992 169 1.2 2155 33 18 900
2200 UTC 12 Aug 1992 201 7.6 3740 29 12 489
1400 UTC 20 Aug 1992 231 5.6 1051 31 20 844
1500 UTC 13 Aug 1993 81 0.1 2747 68 6874
1500 UTC 22 Aug 1993 324 4.3 2367 47 11 935
1500 UTC 24 Aug 1993 59 5.1 1875 89 4604
2200 UTC 26 Aug 1993 62 1.9 2629 135 8807
2200 UTC 28 Aug 1993 253 0.6 2236 99 11 861
NOVEMBER 1998 TAPIA ET AL.
sounding chosen to characterize a day was the one re-
leased at the KSC before the period of deep convection
and thunderstorm activity had taken place. The after-
math of this period was usually marked by a pronounced
decrease in convective available potential energy
(CAPE) relative to the value from the sounding of the
preconvective environment.
For the study of RLR variability with convective re-
gime, the criteria used by Lopez et al. (1991) were
adopted. In their study, the convective regimes of central
Florida are classified according to the direction of the
prevailing synoptic wind. A mean wind vector, calcu-
lated between 3 and 10 km MSL, is used to divide the
flow regime into five categories: SW, NW, NE, SE, and
calm. Southwest is defined as a mean wind vector be-
tween 1588 and 2488. The direction windows for NW,
NE, and SE flow regimes are 24883388, 3388688, and
6881588, respectively.
All nine storms that occurred on SW-type days (2,
12, and 20 August 1992) had RLR values below the
median, ranging from 29 to 37 3 10 6 kg per flash.
These days also had the three highest lightning counts.
On the eastern coast, SW-type days have offshore
flow. These days are convectively intense due to the
opposing directions of the sea breeze and the synoptic
flow that increases the convergence (at the surface)
and thus forces lifting. Another reason is the energy
contributed by the warm, moist air coming from the
Gulf of Mexico. These two factors favor the devel-
opment of strong updrafts and lightning, thereby low-
ering the RLR.
The four storms that took place during days with
NE-type conditions (24 and 26 August 1993) had RLR
values above the median, ranging from 77 to 365 3
10 6 kg per flash. One of the two NE days had the
lowest lightning count, while the other had the third
lowest. Northeast-type days have onshore flow and
tend to be less convectively active on the eastern coast
because sea-breeze and synoptic wind flow have the
same direction. Another reason is the lower energy
contributed by the cold air coming from the Atlantic
Ocean. These conditions are less favorable for light-
ning than those of offshore flow; thus, a higher RLR
is expected.
The RLR for days with flows parallel to the coast and
for days of calm conditions varied greatly. The con-
vective activity in this setting is highly variable and can
lead to the enhancement or suppression of convergence.
These are frequently synoptically disturbed days that
produce irregular spatial patterns of convection (Blan-
chard and Lopez 1985).
The variability of the RLR and of the relationship
between peak lightning frequency and convective rain-
fall mass can be significantly reduced when looking just
at days with the same convective regime (Fig. 8). This
shows that under similar environments the amount of
rainfall required for a discharge to occur remains rel-
atively constant. The RLR for a given convective regime
1503
could be estimated experimentally through statistical
analyses of a set of storms taking place under this par-
ticular regime.
Variability within a given convective regime can
be partly explained in terms of storm intensity. Intense
storms (high lightning frequencies and rainfall-flux
rates) tend to produce lower RLR values than mod-
erate storms. It was also observed that shallow storm
systems produce low lightning frequencies and high
amounts of rainfall per flash. The reflectivity values
aloft in these systems were significantly lower than
in storms with lower RLR values. In general, these
storms did not reach cloud-top heights beyond 14 km,
and in most cases they were part of large-scale dis-
turbances and not a consequence of the colliding
boundary mechanism responsible for the development
of many summer airmass thunderstorms in Florida.
[See Cooper et al. (1982) for a detailed explanation
of this mechanism.]
The RLR also changes within the lifetime of a storm.
For all of the storms analyzed, the RLR reaches a min-
imum when lightning frequency peaks. Following this
peak, lightning frequency decreases more rapidly than
rainfall does, producing higher RLRs as the storm de-
cays. In general, lightning ends before the stratiform
rain stage, leading to a poor correlation between light-
ning frequency and rain flux toward the end of the dis-
sipating stage.
Several studies have shown an inverse correlation
between RLR and CAPE, including Williams et al.
(1990, 1992) for hot towers in Darwin, Australia,
and Buechler et al. (1990) for Tennessee Valley region
storms. Both of these studies maintain that decreases
in RLR are due to increases in updraft strength ob-
served on days of higher CAPE [maximum updraft
speed is proportional to the square root of CAPE; see
Weisman and Klemp (1986)]. Similar features are not
observed for the 22 Florida storms. The 20 August
1992 storm had very high peak lightning frequency
(227 flashes/5 min) and flash total (3557) but the low-
est value of CAPE (1051 J kg21 ). The 12 August 1992
storm had the highest prestorm environment CAPE
(3739 J kg21 ) but lower than average peak lightning
frequency. Similar results were obtained by Lopez et
al. (1991), who found that on the eastern coast of
Florida, SW-type days are the most electrically active,
although they have the lowest CAPE values. The op-
posite result was found for NE-type days, which are
the least electrically active but have the highest CAPE
values. In Florida, the interplay of synoptic-scale, me-
soscale, and storm-scale processes preclude a simple
relationship between prestorm CAPE and the RLR of
a thunderstorm.
6. Proposed model for estimating convective
rainfall
The estimation of convective rainfall from lightning
observations is based on the following model of the
1504 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY VOLUME 37

FIG. 8. Peak CG lightning frequency and total number of CG lightning flashes vs convective
rainfall mass for the 22 storms studied. The open circles represent those storms that occurred
under a convective regime characterized by offshore synoptic flow on the eastern coast. The solid
line is a least squares fit of these storms. The solid circles represent all other storms.

spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall rate for a In the proposed model, the median RLR (43 3 10 6
storm: kg) of the 22 Florida storms analyzed was used as an

O Z f (t, T )g(x, X ),
Nt estimate of Z. A more accurate model would incorporate
R(t, x) 5 C i i (1) different RLRs as a function of the prevailing convec-
i51 tive regime. This is beyond the scope of this model.
Another reason to use the median RLR is that lightning
R(t, x) 5 rainfall rate at time t and spatial location x
data will likely be used in areas of poor radar and gauge
(mm h21),
coverage. Consequently, sounding information to de-
N t 5 number of flashes until time t 1 Dt/2, termine the prevailing convective regime might not be
readily available. Further improvements of the model
T i 5 time of the ith flash, would involve the tuning of the RLR as a function of
X i 5 spatial location of the ith flash, peak lightning frequency. A lower RLR should be as-
signed to lightning-intense storms, and a higher RLR
Z 5 RLR for the storm (kilograms per CG flash), to moderate storms.
and Analyses of the Florida storms (see Figs. 4 and 6)
C 5 units conversion factor, showed less than 1-h lag between lightning and rainfall.
Consequently, rainfall is assumed to be uniformly dis-
where g(x, X i ) specifies the rainfall flux at spatial lo- tributed during a Dt time period centered on the light-
cation x from a lightning flash at X i , and f (t, T i ) specifies ning occurrence time; that is,
the temporal distribution of rainfall at time t from a

5 if |t 2 T i | , Dt/2,
lightning flash at time T i . The model can be used for 1,
estimating convective rainfall from lightning observa- f (t, T i ) 5 (2)
0, otherwise.
tionsthat is, the occurrence times T i and spatial lo-
cations X iprovided that the following components can For this model a Dt of 5 min was adopted. Rela-
be completely specified: 1) the RLR, 2) the spatial dis- tively little is known, in quantitative terms, about the
tribution of rainfall about a lightning flash, and 3) the spatial distribution of lightning within a storm. (See
temporal distribution of rainfall about a lightning flash Fig. 2 for a graphical representation of the spatial
time. distribution of lightning for the 20 August storm.)
NOVEMBER 1998 TAPIA ET AL.
Kuettner (1950) found that most lightning occurs
within the area of heaviest precipitation. Carte and
Kidder (1977) observed that the area of highest CG
flash density occurs in the vicinity of heaviest pre-
cipitation, but it does not coincide with the reflectivity
core of the storm. Several investigators (Dye et al.
1986; Lopez et al. 1990; Watson et al. 1995) found
that lightning tends to avoid the region of highest
reflectivity, being more likely to occur just outside of
it. The lightning core is not always collocated with
the reflectivity core. The area of highest lightning
frequency varies its position with respect to the core
of maximum reflectivity within the lifetime of the
storm. This behavior can be partly explained in terms
of the advection of positive and negative charges
within the cloud as well as by the 5-min radar sam-
pling interval. For the 20 August storm illustrated in
Fig. 2, the location of most flashes is close to the area
of highest reflectivity, although it does not coincide
with it exactly.
This variability of the spatial correlation between
lightning and rainfall within the storm area suggests the
use of a uniform distribution of rainfall about lightning
flashes. For the proposed model, rainfall is distributed
uniformly within a 10-km diameter circle around the
location of the lightning flash; that is,
g(x, X i ) 5 51,
0,
if |x 2 X i | , 5,
otherwise.
(3)
Accordingly, a single flash produces a rainfall ac-
cumulation of 0.55 mm [43 3 10 6 kg 3 1023 m 3 kg21
3 (25p)21 km22 3 1026 km 2 m22 3 10 3 mm m21 ] that
is constant over a circle of 10-km diameter centered on
the location of the flash. The effective area 25 3 p was
chosen to reflect the characteristic size of storms. From
the time series of the precipitation area of the storms
studied, it was observed that this value can vary from
10 km 2 in the cumulus and dissipating stages to more
than 1000 km 2 in the mature stage.
7. Verification of performance
A test period was selected from 2200 UTC 20 Au-
gust 1992 to 0400 UTC 21 August 1992. Convection
was intense, and many thunderstorms occurred. A
very intense thunderstorm produced high rainfall ac-
cumulations northwest of the radar, while the re-
mainder were moderate storms that produced signif-
icantly lower accumulations. One of the storms passed
over the KSC gauge network, allowing for compari-
son of rainfall rates derived from lightning and radar
reflectivity with those observed by the gauges. This
comparison also made possible the analysis of the
radar reflectivitygauge rain-rate bias. A ZR relation
was derived from the radar reflectivity and 1-min rain
gauge data such that the rain mass accumulated at the
20 KSC gauges equaled that estimated from reflec-
1505
tivity observations at the bin closest to the gauges.
The unbiased ZR (Z 5 144 3 R1.4 ) was applied to
the radar data in order to obtain a spatial distribution
of rainfall.
Rainfall-rate maps were computed for the Melbourne
WSR-88D radar area of coverage on a 1-km grid scale
(460 3 460 1-km 2 bins) and 5-min timescale using the
procedure outlined above. At each bin, the number of
CG flashes falling within a 10-km diameter circle cen-
tered at the bin were counted at 5-min time intervals.
This was translated into a 5-min rainfall accumulation
at each bin. A map of rainfall accumulations was ob-
tained for each 5-min interval and for the entire 6-h
period. The time resolution of both radar- and lightning-
derived rainfall accumulations is the same, 5 min. The
spatial resolution of the radar reflectivityderived rain
map and that of the lightning-derived map are also the
same, 1 km 3 1 km.
The spatial distribution of rainfall accumulation cal-
culated from reflectivity and lightning observations are
shown in Fig. 9. In the area of highest accumulations
located northwest of the radar, the maximum rainfall
accumulation observed by the radar is 152 mm, while
that derived from lighting observations is 221 mm.
Comparisons with rain gauge observations in the area
of highest rainfall accumulations were not possible be-
cause no gauges are located there. The mean areal rain-
fall for the event is 3.7 mm, as derived from radar, and
2.6 mm, as derived from lightning. The rainy area, de-
fined as the area with positive rainfall accumulation,
occupies 23% of the total area for radar and 22% for
lighting.
The storm that passed over the KSC area was in its
dissipating stage. From 0045 to 0350 UTC 21 August
rainfall was recorded by the gauges. The maximum
lightning frequency at this time for this storm was 18
flashes per 5 min, while at its mature stage, it reached
a maximum lightning frequency of 227 flashes per 5
min (2348 UTC 20 August). For the three KSC gauges
that recorded the highest rainfall, the accumulations de-
rived from lightning and radar observations, and the
rainfall recorded by the gauges were, respectively, the
followingat gauge site 14: 14, 28, and 24 mm; at
gauge site 16: 11, 15, and 20 mm; and at gauge site 26:
11, 15, and 12 mm.
To evaluate the overall match between both maps
in terms of rainfall accumulations, the contingency
table approach (Donaldson et al. 1975; Stanski et al.
1989) was used. For each map, a specific bin was
declared active or inactive if the rainfall accumulation
at that bin was higher than a given threshold. On each
map the total number of 1 km 3 1 km bins is 211 600
(460 3 460). A success occurs when corresponding
bins on each map are active; a failure occurs when
the bin from the radar-derived map is active and the
one from the lightning-derived map is inactive; and
the opposite leads to a false alarm. For a 25-mm
threshold, there were 4323 successes, 5563 failures,
1506 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY
FIG. 9. Spatial distribution of rainfall derived from radar reflectivity observations (left) and CG lightning observations (right) for a 6-h
period (2200 UTC 20 August 19920400 UTC 21 August 1992) in the area covered by the WSR-88D Melbourne radar.
1300 false alarms, and 200 414 inactive paired bins.
These figures lead to a probability of detection (POD)
of 44%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 23%, and a critical
success index (CSI) of 39%, where these indices are
computed as follows:
nsuccess
POD 5 , (4)
nsuccess 1 nfailure
nfalse alarm
FAR 5 , (5)
nsuccess 1 nfalse alarm
and
nsuccess
CSI 5 . (6)
nsuccess 1 nfailure 1 nfalse alarm
Figure 9 demonstrates that a lightning-derived map
can accurately determine the location of the areas of
heavy rainfall. In spite of this, significant differences
in rainfall accumulation exist between the radar- and
lightning-derived estimates. Overestimation occurs at
the location of the most intense storm NW of the radar,
while underestimation occurs at the location of the
other moderate storms. The presence of a number of
these moderate storms leads to underestimation of to-
tal rainfall for the entire domain of study. These dif-
ferences show the limitations of the proposed model.
The RLR used was 43 3 10 6 kg per flash, the median
RLR for the 22 storms studied. This value is likely
an overestimation of the RLR for this day, given that
VOLUME 37
this 6-h storm period occurred in a day of southwest
synoptic flow. Therefore, for reasons stated in section
5, storms with high lightning frequencies are likely
to produce less rainfall per flash than the median RLR.
In the storm analyses, it was observed that shallow
storm systems and moderate storms with low light-
ning frequencies produce higher RLRs than average.
This is the cause for underestimation at the location
of the other moderate storms. The difference in size
of the rainy area at low accumulations may be ac-
counted for by the rainfall produced in the stratiform
part of the storms, where little or no lightning occurs.
Accumulations higher than 70 mm occur only at the
site of the intense storm, where the model overesti-
mates rainfall accumulation and, thus, rainy area with
respect to the radar estimates. The storm was in its
dissipating stage and lightning had practically ceased
by the time the storm crossed the KSC, causing the
underestimation of the lightning-derived rainfall es-
timates at the gauge sites.
The same studies were carried out for 5-min maps to
analyze the match at a higher temporal resolution. Fig-
ure 10 shows the accumulation for the 5-min interval
of highest lightning frequencies. The maximum rainfall
accumulation observed by the radar is 20 mm, while
that derived from lightning observations is 29 mm. Dis-
crepancies similar to the 6-h map analysis are found in
this map.
The preceding results illustrate the potential utility of
NOVEMBER 1998
FIG. 10. Spatial distribution of rainfall derived from radar reflectivity observations (left) and CG lightning observations (right) for a 5-
min period (23462350 UTC 20 August 1992) in the area covered by the WSR-88D Melbourne radar.
the modeling system for rainfall estimation problems.
Model parameters will clearly vary geographically, and
model structure will potentially exhibit significant de-
pendence on storm type. A southern plains supercell
thunderstorm, for example, will likely differ signifi-
cantly from the Florida thunderstorms in terms of the
spatial pattern of rainfall distribution surrounding a CG
strike. Implementation and elaboration of the model pre-
sented in section 6 would benefit from detailed studies
of the interrelated spatial patterns of CG strikes and
surface rainfall (see, for example, Smith and Krajewski
1987).
8. Conclusions
The main conclusions of this study are as follows.
1) Seasonal and diurnal analyses of rainfall and light-
ning climatology in Florida illustrate the strong cor-
relation between lightning occurrence and convec-
tive rainfall.
2) Analyses of 22 Florida thunderstorms were carried
out to assess the relationship between lightning and
rainfall. It was concluded that rainfall flux and light-
ning frequency are well correlated for a given storm.
3) The median RLR for the 22 storms is 43 3 10 6 kg
per flash. The RLR varies with convective regime.
This variability can be considerably reduced when
storms are partitioned by convective regime. RLRs
for each regime can be estimated through statistical
TAPIA ET AL. 1507
analysis of a number of storms. The RLR also varies
with storm lightning intensity. High lightning fre-
quencies lead to lower RLR values.
4) Using lightning observations and a simple model
based on an RLRa temporal and a spatial distri-
bution of rainfall around a flash time and location
it is possible to derive estimates of precipitation in
space and time for heavy rainfall events. These es-
timates can be very useful for locations lacking radar
coverage and in the correction of radar-estimated
rainfall for range effects.
5) The model pinpoints and delineates accurately the
areas of heavy rainfall. Several sources of error exist
in the model, leading to discrepancies in the mag-
nitude of lightning-derived estimates of rainfall. Of
these, the most important seems to be the adoption
of a unique RLR. Better model performance could
perhaps be achieved by incorporating different RLR
values as a function of the prevailing convective re-
gime. Tuning of the RLR in terms of storm lightning
intensity could also improve the model results.
6) Finally, lightning, as a predictor of intense localized
convection, could become a valuable tool in the
short-term prediction of flash floods and in the hy-
drological analyses of the spatial distribution of rain-
fall in regions where radar coverage is poor.
Acknowledgments. This research was funded in part
by the U.S. Army Research Office (Grant DAAH04-95-
1508 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY
1-0113), the National Science Foundation (Grant CMS-
9408730 and EAR-9528886), and the National Aero-
nautics and Space Administration (NASA). This support
is gratefully acknowledged. Mary Lynn Baeck and Mat-
thias Steiner made many interesting suggestions and
helped with data analysis. Steve Goodman and Dennis
Buechler provided lightning data. Dave Wolff, NASA/
Goddard Space Flight Center, provided WSR-88D data
from Melbourne. Cathy Kessinger and Daryl Fletcher
made many helpful comments in their review of the
paper.
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