Monte Carlo Simulation

Demand
Admin cost 400000 Mean
Advt Cost 600000 SD

cost of labour 450 per unit

cost of RM 1000 per unit
SP 3500 per unit

Random no for Values less

Trial No. demand Demand Cost Revenue Profit than mean
1 0.6024284441 513 1743850 1795500 51650 0
2 0.1900654871 457 1662650 1599500 -63150 8267855720
3 0.5992431756 513 1743850 1795500 51650 0
4 0.0624316052 424 1614800 1484000 -130800 25146902795
5 0.1142480875 440 1638000 1540000 -98000 15820042395
6 0.6584800184 521 1755450 1823500 68050 0
7 0.02229217 400 1580000 1400000 -180000 43171593395
8 0.7296212129 531 1769950 1858500 88550 0
9 0.0880856499 433 1627850 1515500 -112350 19635786320
10 0.4155597816 490 1710500 1715000 4500 541853645.1
11 0.1500276482 449 1651050 1571500 -79550 11519245920
12 0.7724624443 538 1780100 1883000 102900 0
13 0.8812334832 560 1812000 1960000 148000 0
14 0.6284179226 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
15 0.4103353031 489 1709050 1711500 2450 641494920.1
16 0.7051367373 527 1764150 1844500 80350 0
17 0.7489694983 534 1774300 1869000 94700 0
18 0.1778729947 454 1658300 1589000 -69300 9424089545
19 0.4908872006 499 1723550 1746500 22950 23307170.06
20 0.7517895626 535 1775750 1872500 96750 0
21 0.6891936338 525 1761250 1837500 76250 0
22 0.2701492917 470 1681500 1645000 -36500 4131629145
23 0.4163638562 490 1710500 1715000 4500 541853645.1
24 0.3781712124 485 1703250 1697500 -5750 1124110020
25 0.9294505355 574 1832300 2009000 176700 0
26 0.2569275673 468 1678600 1638000 -40600 4675516695
27 0.1054690416 438 1635100 1533000 -102100 16868229945
28 0.3249250595 478 1693100 1673000 -20100 2292278945
29 0.5771591514 510 1739500 1785000 45500 0
30 0.3386911665 480 1696000 1680000 -16000 1916491395
31 0.7742371756 538 1780100 1883000 102900 0
32 0.0034093236 365 1529250 1277500 -251750 78135763020
33 0.3367696234 479 1694550 1676500 -18050 2100182670
34 0.9889055294 615 1891750 2152500 260750 0
35 0.4330936564 492 1713400 1722000 8600 367786095.1
36 0.6645408527 522 1756900 1827000 70100 0
37 0.0714375531 427 1619150 1494500 -124650 23234218970
38 0.2380226005 465 1674250 1627500 -46750 5554385520
39 0.8878974205 561 1813450 1963500 150050 0
40 0.7964021992 542 1785900 1897000 111100 0
41 0.7000282193 527 1764150 1844500 80350 0
42 0.1131874816 440 1638000 1540000 -98000 15820042395
43 0.7232812091 530 1768500 1855000 86500 0
44 0.6534573879 520 1754000 1820000 66000 0
45 0.9909348682 619 1897550 2166500 268950 0
46 0.0442194761 415 1601750 1452500 -149250 31338824270
47 0.8664640082 556 1806200 1946000 139800 0
48 0.4024267194 488 1707600 1708000 400 749541195.1
49 0.3832882085 486 1704700 1701000 -3700 990848745.1
50 0.2307154068 464 1672800 1624000 -48800 5864151795
51 0.1895703946 457 1662650 1599500 -63150 8267855720
52 0.5203754007 503 1729350 1760500 31150 0
53 0.0490806187 418 1606100 1463000 -143100 29199205445
54 0.9301167031 574 1832300 2009000 176700 0
55 0.7663176632 537 1778650 1879500 100850 0
56 0.7053237962 527 1764150 1844500 80350 0
57 0.7942353941 542 1785900 1897000 111100 0
58 0.9276814625 573 1830850 2005500 174650 0
59 0.6284049725 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
60 0.306961176 475 1688750 1662500 -26250 2918997770
61 0.4802629726 498 1722100 1743000 20900 47303445.06
62 0.8970689652 564 1817800 1974000 156200 0
63 0.2930015908 473 1685850 1655500 -30350 3378835320
64 0.3195402417 477 1691650 1669500 -22150 2492780220
65 0.4099566429 489 1709050 1711500 2450 641494920.1
66 0.7854392287 540 1783000 1890000 107000 0
67 0.1174365313 441 1639450 1543500 -95950 15308556120
68 0.1763143991 454 1658300 1589000 -69300 9424089545
69 0.0212473663 399 1578550 1396500 -182050 44027684670
70 0.8439713696 551 1798950 1928500 129550 0
71 0.7888060408 541 1784450 1893500 109050 0
72 0.293437205 473 1685850 1655500 -30350 3378835320
73 0.1279514222 444 1643800 1554000 -89800 13824527295
74 0.407626391 489 1709050 1711500 2450 641494920.1
75 0.1785545549 454 1658300 1589000 -69300 9424089545
76 0.9731068515 597 1865650 2089500 223850 0
77 0.6390361036 518 1751100 1813000 61900 0
78 0.3719940247 484 1701800 1694000 -7800 1265776295
79 0.4852939745 499 1723550 1746500 22950 23307170.06
 80 0.495593726 500 1725000 1750000 25000 7715895.063
81 0.2869949562 472 1684400 1652000 -32400 3621361595
82 0.5418319589 506 1733700 1771000 37300 0
83 0.1172904575 441 1639450 1543500 -95950 15308556120
84 0.1722100349 453 1656850 1585500 -71350 9826310820
85 0.2714383763 470 1681500 1645000 -36500 4131629145
86 0.2597725211 468 1678600 1638000 -40600 4675516695
87 0.2987968434 474 1687300 1659000 -28300 3144714045
88 0.5620630413 508 1736600 1778000 41400 0
89 0.3234220523 478 1693100 1673000 -20100 2292278945
90 0.6476706205 519 1752550 1816500 63950 0
91 0.2567984808 468 1678600 1638000 -40600 4675516695
92 0.5065927137 501 1726450 1753500 27050 529620.0625
93 0.2679073851 470 1681500 1645000 -36500 4131629145
94 0.8267391309 548 1794600 1918000 123400 0
95 0.4493488651 494 1716300 1729000 12700 227338545.1
96 0.5568848392 508 1736600 1778000 41400 0
97 0.979439554 603 1874350 2110500 236150 0
98 0.3612576244 483 1700350 1690500 -9850 1415847570
99 0.7949589843 542 1785900 1897000 111100 0
100 0.5268592611 504 1730800 1764000 33200 0
101 0.982881502 606 1878700 2121000 242300 0
102 0.0135357836 390 1565500 1365000 -200500 52110731145
103 0.3724762958 484 1701800 1694000 -7800 1265776295
104 0.373711618 484 1701800 1694000 -7800 1265776295
105 0.8487420052 552 1800400 1932000 131600 0
106 0.7478727218 534 1774300 1869000 94700 0
107 0.7951192113 542 1785900 1897000 111100 0
108 0.4886397258 499 1723550 1746500 22950 23307170.06
109 0.8545547915 553 1801850 1935500 133650 0
110 0.0575368446 422 1611900 1477000 -134900 26464050345
111 0.2622180639 469 1680050 1641500 -38550 4399370420
112 0.2590973432 468 1678600 1638000 -40600 4675516695
113 0.2599511261 468 1678600 1638000 -40600 4675516695
114 0.0532877821 420 1609000 1470000 -139000 27814817895
115 0.2762196125 471 1682950 1648500 -34450 3872292870
116 0.4268941532 491 1711950 1718500 6550 450617370.1
117 0.9088755075 567 1822150 1984500 162350 0
118 0.3594086629 482 1698900 1687000 -11900 1574323845
119 0.2449536241 466 1675700 1631000 -44700 5253024245
120 0.1821398356 455 1659750 1592500 -67250 9030273270
121 0.5961114344 513 1743850 1795500 51650 0
122 0.1080261438 439 1636550 1536500 -100050 16339933670
123 0.900573681 565 1819250 1977500 158250 0
124 0.5103793912 502 1727900 1757000 29100 0
125 0.3210684748 477 1691650 1669500 -22150 2492780220
126 0.3572376299 482 1698900 1687000 -11900 1574323845
127 0.2660872561 469 1680050 1641500 -38550 4399370420
128 0.5683648763 509 1738050 1781500 43450 0
129 0.6953559497 526 1762700 1841000 78300 0
130 0.7595720955 536 1777200 1876000 98800 0
131 0.4507654586 494 1716300 1729000 12700 227338545.1
132 0.1003489146 437 1633650 1529500 -104150 17404931220
133 0.0748247 428 1620600 1498000 -122600 22613467695
134 0.6326676718 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
135 0.3474399395 481 1697450 1683500 -13950 1741205120
136 0.1117761933 440 1638000 1540000 -98000 15820042395
137 0.5389384348 505 1732250 1767500 35250 0
138 0.6175260991 515 1746750 1802500 55750 0
139 0.6661278165 522 1756900 1827000 70100 0
140 0.0133506515 390 1565500 1365000 -200500 52110731145
141 0.7207232036 530 1768500 1855000 86500 0
142 0.8603111143 555 1804750 1942500 137750 0
143 0.1840830526 456 1661200 1596000 -65200 8644861995
144 0.7895927394 541 1784450 1893500 109050 0
145 0.0435056554 415 1601750 1452500 -149250 31338824270
146 0.8650109041 556 1806200 1946000 139800 0
147 0.6053763791 514 1745300 1799000 53700 0
148 0.0170523991 395 1572750 1382500 -190250 47536099770
149 0.4588323518 495 1717750 1732500 14750 169722270.1
150 0.7542519895 535 1775750 1872500 96750 0
151 0.3657335009 483 1700350 1690500 -9850 1415847570
152 0.2356493256 464 1672800 1624000 -48800 5864151795
153 0.5312434445 504 1730800 1764000 33200 0
154 0.0402695961 413 1598850 1445500 -153350 32807261820
155 0.2735764078 470 1681500 1645000 -36500 4131629145
156 0.947892163 582 1843900 2037000 193100 0
157 0.2177309179 462 1669900 1617000 -52900 6508899345
158 0.7021933717 527 1764150 1844500 80350 0
159 0.2885808432 473 1685850 1655500 -30350 3378835320
160 0.5051446635 501 1726450 1753500 27050 529620.0625
161 0.0067206046 377 1546650 1319500 -227150 64988157720
162 0.2914226772 473 1685850 1655500 -30350 3378835320
163 0.2373466825 465 1674250 1627500 -46750 5554385520
164 0.5264791684 504 1730800 1764000 33200 0
165 0.6979437537 526 1762700 1841000 78300 0
166 0.6609097112 521 1755450 1823500 68050 0
167 0.2294787302 463 1671350 1620500 -50850 6182323070
168 0.0230591934 401 1581450 1403500 -177950 42323907120
169 0.0337085651 409 1593050 1431500 -161550 35844996920
170 0.5615188332 508 1736600 1778000 41400 0
171 0.0123331086 388 1562600 1358000 -204600 53999418695
172 0.3616585764 483 1700350 1690500 -9850 1415847570
173 0.8235839858 547 1793150 1914500 121350 0
174 0.2576403432 468 1678600 1638000 -40600 4675516695
175 0.8851193202 561 1813450 1963500 150050 0
176 0.8888010117 562 1814900 1967000 152100 0
177 0.9801485694 603 1874350 2110500 236150 0
178 0.3597921231 483 1700350 1690500 -9850 1415847570
179 0.6966477892 526 1762700 1841000 78300 0
180 0.2955480085 474 1687300 1659000 -28300 3144714045
181 0.6283812406 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
182 0.9966920481 636 1922200 2226000 303800 0
183 0.7983096114 542 1785900 1897000 111100 0
184 0.5688263477 509 1738050 1781500 43450 0
185 0.5278076347 504 1730800 1764000 33200 0
186 0.91095206 568 1823600 1988000 164400 0
187 0.0212071452 399 1578550 1396500 -182050 44027684670
188 0.7747553209 538 1780100 1883000 102900 0
189 0.8332130307 549 1796050 1921500 125450 0
190 0.4870023321 499 1723550 1746500 22950 23307170.06
191 0.4032105419 488 1707600 1708000 400 749541195.1
192 0.7284503975 531 1769950 1858500 88550 0
193 0.5038929725 501 1726450 1753500 27050 529620.0625
194 0.4139335855 490 1710500 1715000 4500 541853645.1
195 0.2071255607 460 1667000 1610000 -57000 7187266895
196 0.7314454298 531 1769950 1858500 88550 0
197 0.3258534241 478 1693100 1673000 -20100 2292278945
198 0.131711805 445 1645250 1557500 -87750 13346661020
199 0.7768780337 539 1781550 1886500 104950 0
200 0.3546729821 482 1698900 1687000 -11900 1574323845
201 0.9655313376 591 1856950 2068500 211550 0
202 0.0503712973 418 1606100 1463000 -143100 29199205445
203 0.8845540494 560 1812000 1960000 148000 0
204 0.3102563078 476 1690200 1666000 -24200 2701686495
205 0.3247250058 478 1693100 1673000 -20100 2292278945
206 0.8906687493 562 1814900 1967000 152100 0
207 0.2801333033 471 1682950 1648500 -34450 3872292870
208 0.0147909369 392 1568400 1372000 -196400 50255663595
209 0.4621130334 496 1719200 1736000 16800 120510995.1
210 0.7362931354 532 1771400 1862000 90600 0
211 0.6424562159 519 1752550 1816500 63950 0
212 0.9580112448 587 1851150 2054500 203350 0
213 0.4167886251 490 1710500 1715000 4500 541853645.1
214 0.0372559388 411 1595950 1438500 -157450 34309319370
215 0.9468498956 581 1842450 2033500 191050 0
216 0.9097521856 567 1822150 1984500 162350 0
217 0.7820316596 539 1781550 1886500 104950 0
218 0.6229282269 516 1748200 1806000 57800 0
219 0.9686629687 594 1861300 2079000 217700 0
220 0.6350468169 518 1751100 1813000 61900 0
221 0.0696845631 427 1619150 1494500 -124650 23234218970
222 0.3367089144 479 1694550 1676500 -18050 2100182670
223 0.622694654 516 1748200 1806000 57800 0
224 0.2825150881 472 1684400 1652000 -32400 3621361595
225 0.1446460322 448 1649600 1568000 -81600 11963492195
226 0.4551728475 495 1717750 1732500 14750 169722270.1
227 0.1849968025 456 1661200 1596000 -65200 8644861995
228 0.3421598564 480 1696000 1680000 -16000 1916491395
229 0.2752591821 471 1682950 1648500 -34450 3872292870
230 0.635755778 518 1751100 1813000 61900 0
231 0.8005288913 543 1787350 1900500 113150 0
232 0.4944343721 500 1725000 1750000 25000 7715895.063
233 0.4608966608 496 1719200 1736000 16800 120510995.1
234 0.8029420222 543 1787350 1900500 113150 0
235 0.5086910742 502 1727900 1757000 29100 0
236 0.0297151033 406 1588700 1421000 -167700 38211550745
237 0.5558896588 508 1736600 1778000 41400 0
238 0.9419820611 579 1839550 2026500 186950 0
239 0.2222405641 462 1669900 1617000 -52900 6508899345
240 0.9081502483 567 1822150 1984500 162350 0
241 0.4127548642 489 1709050 1711500 2450 641494920.1
242 0.3862459648 486 1704700 1701000 -3700 990848745.1
243 0.3484985786 481 1697450 1683500 -13950 1741205120
244 0.8425823497 551 1798950 1928500 129550 0
245 0.0032240066 364 1527800 1274000 -253800 79286029295
246 0.7542489831 535 1775750 1872500 96750 0
247 0.1218962028 442 1640900 1547000 -93900 14805474845
248 0.2242759366 463 1671350 1620500 -50850 6182323070
249 0.7087985706 528 1765600 1848000 82400 0
250 0.6863295333 525 1761250 1837500 76250 0
251 0.934394921 576 1835200 2016000 180800 0
252 0.8538761606 553 1801850 1935500 133650 0
253 0.5764887661 510 1739500 1785000 45500 0
254 0.9891240325 615 1891750 2152500 260750 0
255 0.4951022973 500 1725000 1750000 25000 7715895.063
256 0.7216018066 530 1768500 1855000 86500 0
257 0.8650268169 556 1806200 1946000 139800 0
258 0.265968875 469 1680050 1641500 -38550 4399370420
259 0.9554025162 585 1848250 2047500 199250 0
260 0.4213643315 491 1711950 1718500 6550 450617370.1
261 0.9667153974 592 1858400 2072000 213600 0
262 0.3704352677 484 1701800 1694000 -7800 1265776295
263 0.466041927 496 1719200 1736000 16800 120510995.1
264 0.4250167937 491 1711950 1718500 6550 450617370.1
265 0.1610057313 451 1653950 1578500 -75450 10655968370
266 0.6711648944 523 1758350 1830500 72150 0
267 0.7781569694 539 1781550 1886500 104950 0
268 0.632256908 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
269 0.7252736853 530 1768500 1855000 86500 0
270 0.4001602026 488 1707600 1708000 400 749541195.1
271 0.7160876784 529 1767050 1851500 84450 0
272 0.9034503723 566 1820700 1981000 160300 0
273 0.7445512691 533 1772850 1865500 92650 0
274 0.9905586182 618 1896100 2163000 266900 0
275 0.9519510344 584 1846800 2044000 197200 0
276 0.6620657438 521 1755450 1823500 68050 0
277 0.8510982015 553 1801850 1935500 133650 0
278 0.387819544 486 1704700 1701000 -3700 990848745.1
279 0.5000432204 501 1726450 1753500 27050 529620.0625
280 0.5188259517 503 1729350 1760500 31150 0
281 0.2481498741 466 1675700 1631000 -44700 5253024245
282 0.8802508069 559 1810550 1956500 145950 0
283 0.7567296789 535 1775750 1872500 96750 0
284 0.2888684254 473 1685850 1655500 -30350 3378835320
285 0.0397935827 413 1598850 1445500 -153350 32807261820
286 0.4892629244 499 1723550 1746500 22950 23307170.06
287 0.0037749188 367 1532150 1284500 -247650 75860445470
288 0.1794630259 455 1659750 1592500 -67250 9030273270
289 0.6126950945 515 1746750 1802500 55750 0
290 0.3434402936 480 1696000 1680000 -16000 1916491395
291 0.3044342996 475 1688750 1662500 -26250 2918997770
292 0.8951993554 563 1816350 1970500 154150 0
293 0.9702745113 595 1862750 2082500 219750 0
294 0.5327368921 505 1732250 1767500 35250 0
295 0.3828449511 486 1704700 1701000 -3700 990848745.1
296 0.4073208883 489 1709050 1711500 2450 641494920.1
297 0.3881705067 486 1704700 1701000 -3700 990848745.1
298 0.8595828328 554 1803300 1939000 135700 0
299 0.7967168385 542 1785900 1897000 111100 0
300 0.9841280803 608 1881600 2128000 246400 0
301 0.0153750824 392 1568400 1372000 -196400 50255663595
302 0.1147815422 440 1638000 1540000 -98000 15820042395
303 0.6065153365 514 1745300 1799000 53700 0
304 0.8719928085 557 1807650 1949500 141850 0
305 0.9352017245 576 1835200 2016000 180800 0
306 0.7756626624 538 1780100 1883000 102900 0
307 0.5999625468 513 1743850 1795500 51650 0
308 0.8107398593 545 1790250 1907500 117250 0
309 0.4891607522 499 1723550 1746500 22950 23307170.06
310 0.6096381207 514 1745300 1799000 53700 0
311 0.9351122344 576 1835200 2016000 180800 0
312 0.8019778606 543 1787350 1900500 113150 0
313 0.7926712493 541 1784450 1893500 109050 0
314 0.6046040238 514 1745300 1799000 53700 0
315 0.2169648866 461 1668450 1613500 -54950 6843880620
316 0.4295969117 492 1713400 1722000 8600 367786095.1
317 0.4331213401 492 1713400 1722000 8600 367786095.1
318 0.2344363312 464 1672800 1624000 -48800 5864151795
319 0.3301911407 479 1694550 1676500 -18050 2100182670
320 0.4089007571 489 1709050 1711500 2450 641494920.1
321 0.3109460717 476 1690200 1666000 -24200 2701686495
322 0.8607026252 555 1804750 1942500 137750 0
323 0.630244679 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
324 0.0963827192 435 1630750 1522500 -108250 18503548770
325 0.1591172439 451 1653950 1578500 -75450 10655968370
326 0.3835237508 486 1704700 1701000 -3700 990848745.1
327 0.8605642371 555 1804750 1942500 137750 0
328 0.9384371619 578 1838100 2023000 184900 0
329 0.2724722679 470 1681500 1645000 -36500 4131629145
330 0.0253981825 403 1584350 1410500 -173850 40653749570
331 0.0689626349 426 1617700 1491000 -126700 23863375245
332 0.3697116788 484 1701800 1694000 -7800 1265776295
333 0.4556818768 495 1717750 1732500 14750 169722270.1
334 0.1099681794 439 1636550 1536500 -100050 16339933670
335 0.0454697541 416 1603200 1456000 -147200 30617212995
336 0.1935708566 457 1662650 1599500 -63150 8267855720
337 0.3294573221 478 1693100 1673000 -20100 2292278945
338 0.9362831566 577 1836650 2019500 182850 0
339 0.1666216429 452 1655400 1582000 -73400 10236937095
340 0.1545078324 450 1652500 1575000 -77500 11083404645
341 0.5923895123 512 1742400 1792000 49600 0
342 0.5700593431 509 1738050 1781500 43450 0
343 0.4319651954 492 1713400 1722000 8600 367786095.1
344 0.7412936975 533 1772850 1865500 92650 0
345 0.7872436747 540 1783000 1890000 107000 0
346 0.5785340091 510 1739500 1785000 45500 0
347 0.0641314561 424 1614800 1484000 -130800 25146902795
348 0.5299255085 504 1730800 1764000 33200 0
349 0.7785454283 539 1781550 1886500 104950 0
350 0.6695829775 522 1756900 1827000 70100 0
351 0.8360590238 549 1796050 1921500 125450 0
352 0.4586871268 495 1717750 1732500 14750 169722270.1
353 0.2447056587 466 1675700 1631000 -44700 5253024245
354 0.2223382236 462 1669900 1617000 -52900 6508899345
355 0.3982998918 488 1707600 1708000 400 749541195.1
356 0.1044195152 438 1635100 1533000 -102100 16868229945
357 0.8923622383 562 1814900 1967000 152100 0
358 0.5108517759 502 1727900 1757000 29100 0
359 0.0021182614 358 1519100 1253000 -266100 86364131945
360 0.1707171655 453 1656850 1585500 -71350 9826310820
361 0.691451449 525 1761250 1837500 76250 0
362 0.1963428385 458 1664100 1603000 -61100 7899254445
363 0.9523551859 584 1846800 2044000 197200 0
364 0.8057744804 544 1788800 1904000 115200 0
365 0.6942867855 526 1762700 1841000 78300 0
366 0.3283657508 478 1693100 1673000 -20100 2292278945
367 0.6413975249 519 1752550 1816500 63950 0
368 0.4205429946 490 1710500 1715000 4500 541853645.1
369 0.5089195651 502 1727900 1757000 29100 0
370 0.1321055921 445 1645250 1557500 -87750 13346661020
371 0.6231400459 516 1748200 1806000 57800 0
372 0.7935380694 541 1784450 1893500 109050 0
373 0.6437218275 519 1752550 1816500 63950 0
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753 0.0792940973 430 1623500 1505000 -118500 21397180145
754 0.4418256213 493 1714850 1725500 10650 293359820.1
755 0.8784309119 559 1810550 1956500 145950 0
756 0.699455113 527 1764150 1844500 80350 0
757 0.6292375326 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
758 0.6764073606 523 1758350 1830500 72150 0
759 0.8696266213 557 1807650 1949500 141850 0
760 0.6721044314 523 1758350 1830500 72150 0
761 0.4884222707 499 1723550 1746500 22950 23307170.06
762 0.1437036497 447 1648150 1564500 -83650 12416143470
763 0.7615756832 536 1777200 1876000 98800 0
764 0.8293836321 548 1794600 1918000 123400 0
765 0.8796894513 559 1810550 1956500 145950 0
766 0.4778470736 498 1722100 1743000 20900 47303445.06
767 0.782548279 540 1783000 1890000 107000 0
768 0.4246443885 491 1711950 1718500 6550 450617370.1
769 0.4818821197 498 1722100 1743000 20900 47303445.06
770 0.7309353169 531 1769950 1858500 88550 0
771 0.4733477992 497 1720650 1739500 18850 79704720.06
772 0.3336209851 479 1694550 1676500 -18050 2100182670
773 0.0989435823 436 1632200 1526000 -106200 17950037495
774 0.9265919339 573 1830850 2005500 174650 0
775 0.9803918393 604 1875800 2114000 238200 0
776 0.2947537836 474 1687300 1659000 -28300 3144714045
777 0.4457822737 494 1716300 1729000 12700 227338545.1
778 0.6939094197 526 1762700 1841000 78300 0
779 0.1265970808 443 1642350 1550500 -91850 14310798570
780 0.5028671649 501 1726450 1753500 27050 529620.0625
781 0.2427885533 466 1675700 1631000 -44700 5253024245
782 0.5434701886 506 1733700 1771000 37300 0
783 0.3673161045 484 1701800 1694000 -7800 1265776295
784 0.7027541276 527 1764150 1844500 80350 0
785 0.5113289078 502 1727900 1757000 29100 0
786 0.9338027705 576 1835200 2016000 180800 0
787 0.2491077416 467 1677150 1634500 -42650 4960067970
788 0.2024856405 459 1665550 1606500 -59050 7539058170
789 0.0911299834 434 1629300 1519000 -110300 19065465045
790 0.8703594861 557 1807650 1949500 141850 0
791 0.5228623103 503 1729350 1760500 31150 0
792 0.9921216713 621 1900450 2173500 273050 0
793 0.6783093278 524 1759800 1834000 74200 0
794 0.8073693195 544 1788800 1904000 115200 0
795 0.2182903907 462 1669900 1617000 -52900 6508899345
796 0.9265103535 573 1830850 2005500 174650 0
797 0.6871571443 525 1761250 1837500 76250 0
798 0.4668163168 496 1719200 1736000 16800 120510995.1
799 0.784323323 540 1783000 1890000 107000 0
800 0.4920685078 500 1725000 1750000 25000 7715895.063
801 0.4024463714 488 1707600 1708000 400 749541195.1
802 0.2694991169 470 1681500 1645000 -36500 4131629145
803 0.9880992195 614 1890300 2149000 258700 0
804 0.5694578511 509 1738050 1781500 43450 0
805 0.8763472777 558 1809100 1953000 143900 0
806 0.4400273291 493 1714850 1725500 10650 293359820.1
807 0.0134577865 390 1565500 1365000 -200500 52110731145
808 0.0191851219 397 1575650 1389500 -186150 45765082220
809 0.4399797568 493 1714850 1725500 10650 293359820.1
810 0.8465991661 552 1800400 1932000 131600 0
811 0.1676808496 452 1655400 1582000 -73400 10236937095
812 0.5083803008 502 1727900 1757000 29100 0
813 0.0356431733 410 1594500 1435000 -159500 35072955645
814 0.0160566487 393 1569850 1375500 -194350 49340737320
815 0.3452462686 481 1697450 1683500 -13950 1741205120
816 0.3150265226 476 1690200 1666000 -24200 2701686495
817 0.4514734226 494 1716300 1729000 12700 227338545.1
818 0.658183469 521 1755450 1823500 68050 0
819 0.7276237675 531 1769950 1858500 88550 0
820 0.2938239194 473 1685850 1655500 -30350 3378835320
821 0.5199017497 503 1729350 1760500 31150 0
822 0.7638638366 536 1777200 1876000 98800 0
823 0.8453708466 551 1798950 1928500 129550 0
824 0.182205747 455 1659750 1592500 -67250 9030273270
825 0.4571105194 495 1717750 1732500 14750 169722270.1
826 0.2303207186 464 1672800 1624000 -48800 5864151795
827 0.3404943803 480 1696000 1680000 -16000 1916491395
828 0.8644082086 556 1806200 1946000 139800 0
829 0.2672568762 469 1680050 1641500 -38550 4399370420
830 0.2304613555 464 1672800 1624000 -48800 5864151795
831 0.6137539019 515 1746750 1802500 55750 0
832 0.6462266643 519 1752550 1816500 63950 0
833 0.935621803 576 1835200 2016000 180800 0
834 0.245780335 466 1675700 1631000 -44700 5253024245
835 0.6292618839 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
836 0.2887483563 473 1685850 1655500 -30350 3378835320
837 0.3006524092 474 1687300 1659000 -28300 3144714045
838 0.0325111329 408 1591600 1428000 -163600 36625443195
839 0.5143207298 502 1727900 1757000 29100 0
840 0.8666710362 556 1806200 1946000 139800 0
841 0.5167125335 503 1729350 1760500 31150 0
842 0.2961866274 474 1687300 1659000 -28300 3144714045
843 0.1236539897 443 1642350 1550500 -91850 14310798570
844 0.7985972143 542 1785900 1897000 111100 0
845 0.2197709929 462 1669900 1617000 -52900 6508899345
846 0.2847255038 472 1684400 1652000 -32400 3621361595
847 0.6268815769 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
848 0.9284087561 574 1832300 2009000 176700 0
849 0.3951573206 487 1706150 1704500 -1650 865992470.1
850 0.3447587252 481 1697450 1683500 -13950 1741205120
851 0.4953281323 500 1725000 1750000 25000 7715895.063
852 0.7235816521 530 1768500 1855000 86500 0
853 0.2235581204 462 1669900 1617000 -52900 6508899345
854 0.7211926427 530 1768500 1855000 86500 0
855 0.3532669951 482 1698900 1687000 -11900 1574323845
856 0.4616763042 496 1719200 1736000 16800 120510995.1
857 0.3603252962 483 1700350 1690500 -9850 1415847570
858 0.6416237296 519 1752550 1816500 63950 0
859 0.5888508729 512 1742400 1792000 49600 0
860 0.0286241206 405 1587250 1417500 -169750 39017212020
861 0.0968506809 436 1632200 1526000 -106200 17950037495
862 0.7869680242 540 1783000 1890000 107000 0
863 0.5276823551 504 1730800 1764000 33200 0
864 0.9316171996 575 1833750 2012500 178750 0
865 0.9567503123 586 1849700 2051000 201300 0
866 0.5658399546 509 1738050 1781500 43450 0
867 0.6855901073 525 1761250 1837500 76250 0
868 0.7018515094 527 1764150 1844500 80350 0
869 0.8649849781 556 1806200 1946000 139800 0
870 0.2410485708 465 1674250 1627500 -46750 5554385520
871 0.9667523828 592 1858400 2072000 213600 0
872 0.0178665704 396 1574200 1386000 -188200 46646388495
873 0.7105006393 528 1765600 1848000 82400 0
874 0.0963050401 435 1630750 1522500 -108250 18503548770
875 0.832198163 549 1796050 1921500 125450 0
876 0.57798843 510 1739500 1785000 45500 0
877 0.6863227656 525 1761250 1837500 76250 0
878 0.8470147608 552 1800400 1932000 131600 0
879 0.1894004946 456 1661200 1596000 -65200 8644861995
880 0.5147034207 502 1727900 1757000 29100 0
881 0.6783655137 524 1759800 1834000 74200 0
882 0.8707556715 557 1807650 1949500 141850 0
883 0.0333433734 409 1593050 1431500 -161550 35844996920
884 0.3090026472 476 1690200 1666000 -24200 2701686495
885 0.336558307 479 1694550 1676500 -18050 2100182670
886 0.3516641795 481 1697450 1683500 -13950 1741205120
887 0.3986556786 488 1707600 1708000 400 749541195.1
888 0.5935941094 512 1742400 1792000 49600 0
889 0.473131226 497 1720650 1739500 18850 79704720.06
890 0.0090134155 382 1553900 1337000 -216900 59867201345
891 0.4002543979 488 1707600 1708000 400 749541195.1
892 0.6736041238 523 1758350 1830500 72150 0
893 0.9294941442 574 1832300 2009000 176700 0
894 0.3242294999 478 1693100 1673000 -20100 2292278945
895 0.1153230384 441 1639450 1543500 -95950 15308556120
896 0.5752342974 510 1739500 1785000 45500 0
897 0.3575658482 482 1698900 1687000 -11900 1574323845
898 0.8756272324 558 1809100 1953000 143900 0
899 0.6742055818 523 1758350 1830500 72150 0
900 0.1785030869 454 1658300 1589000 -69300 9424089545
901 0.2804901391 471 1682950 1648500 -34450 3872292870
902 0.9597086718 588 1852600 2058000 205400 0
903 0.887814474 561 1813450 1963500 150050 0
904 0.3145640443 476 1690200 1666000 -24200 2701686495
905 0.9569530999 586 1849700 2051000 201300 0
906 0.9180032748 570 1826500 1995000 168500 0
907 0.6240784913 516 1748200 1806000 57800 0
908 0.1535852403 449 1651050 1571500 -79550 11519245920
909 0.2487618692 467 1677150 1634500 -42650 4960067970
910 0.0161844712 394 1571300 1379000 -192300 48434216045
911 0.836681622 550 1797500 1925000 127500 0
912 0.5295948423 504 1730800 1764000 33200 0
913 0.1736101577 454 1658300 1589000 -69300 9424089545
914 0.2739964783 470 1681500 1645000 -36500 4131629145
915 0.4618533015 496 1719200 1736000 16800 120510995.1
916 0.3504015727 481 1697450 1683500 -13950 1741205120
917 0.9927235892 623 1903350 2180500 277150 0
918 0.7466241722 534 1774300 1869000 94700 0
919 0.8489578516 552 1800400 1932000 131600 0
920 0.5036133501 501 1726450 1753500 27050 529620.0625
921 0.0420652595 414 1600300 1449000 -151300 32068840545
922 0.9244358661 572 1829400 2002000 172600 0
923 0.4279197832 491 1711950 1718500 6550 450617370.1
924 0.8082278402 544 1788800 1904000 115200 0
925 0.2939074236 473 1685850 1655500 -30350 3378835320
926 0.7130551201 529 1767050 1851500 84450 0
927 0.2031103684 459 1665550 1606500 -59050 7539058170
928 0.9037670651 566 1820700 1981000 160300 0
929 0.2518229059 467 1677150 1634500 -42650 4960067970
930 0.6940175196 526 1762700 1841000 78300 0
931 0.6548076655 520 1754000 1820000 66000 0
932 0.6328202081 517 1749650 1809500 59850 0
933 0.397584753 488 1707600 1708000 400 749541195.1
934 0.3200908205 477 1691650 1669500 -22150 2492780220
935 0.5020581319 501 1726450 1753500 27050 529620.0625
936 0.6461526716 519 1752550 1816500 63950 0
937 0.2672989668 469 1680050 1641500 -38550 4399370420
938 0.0026292436 361 1523450 1263500 -259950 82787258120
939 0.5645211011 509 1738050 1781500 43450 0
940 0.2330039267 464 1672800 1624000 -48800 5864151795
941 0.1635016218 451 1653950 1578500 -75450 10655968370
942 0.582883319 511 1740950 1788500 47550 0
943 0.8293249995 548 1794600 1918000 123400 0
944 0.2474410787 466 1675700 1631000 -44700 5253024245
945 0.8001696402 543 1787350 1900500 113150 0
946 0.2685373858 470 1681500 1645000 -36500 4131629145
947 0.1015832682 437 1633650 1529500 -104150 17404931220
948 0.3406411278 480 1696000 1680000 -16000 1916491395
949 0.6453017487 519 1752550 1816500 63950 0
950 0.7522213752 535 1775750 1872500 96750 0
951 0.5619991106 508 1736600 1778000 41400 0
952 0.9359609861 577 1836650 2019500 182850 0
953 0.96467279 591 1856950 2068500 211550 0
954 0.3181292474 477 1691650 1669500 -22150 2492780220
955 0.6647741373 522 1756900 1827000 70100 0
956 0.2659337305 469 1680050 1641500 -38550 4399370420
957 0.8135018783 545 1790250 1907500 117250 0
958 0.2666775193 469 1680050 1641500 -38550 4399370420
959 0.1326278743 445 1645250 1557500 -87750 13346661020
960 0.9558887086 586 1849700 2051000 201300 0
961 0.3407620172 480 1696000 1680000 -16000 1916491395
962 0.4972302996 500 1725000 1750000 25000 7715895.063
963 0.9907362769 618 1896100 2163000 266900 0
964 0.5238773447 503 1729350 1760500 31150 0
965 0.6972642697 526 1762700 1841000 78300 0
966 0.2978509617 474 1687300 1659000 -28300 3144714045
967 0.1014421572 437 1633650 1529500 -104150 17404931220
968 0.1959899522 458 1664100 1603000 -61100 7899254445
969 0.1017519515 437 1633650 1529500 -104150 17404931220
970 0.1384469843 446 1646700 1561000 -85700 12877199745
971 0.8215526187 547 1793150 1914500 121350 0
972 0.5881161731 512 1742400 1792000 49600 0
 973 0.0840234889 432 1626400 1512000 -114400 20214512595
974 0.9371848042 577 1836650 2019500 182850 0
975 0.0779920953 430 1623500 1505000 -118500 21397180145
976 0.6122470874 515 1746750 1802500 55750 0
977 0.5330917562 505 1732250 1767500 35250 0
978 0.6687021752 522 1756900 1827000 70100 0
979 0.0842214488 432 1626400 1512000 -114400 20214512595
980 0.5948536163 513 1743850 1795500 51650 0
981 0.6579373448 521 1755450 1823500 68050 0
982 0.7119320218 528 1765600 1848000 82400 0
983 0.9544052971 585 1848250 2047500 199250 0
984 0.7420022875 533 1772850 1865500 92650 0
985 0.417756354 490 1710500 1715000 4500 541853645.1
986 0.4146424212 490 1710500 1715000 4500 541853645.1
987 0.4854494128 499 1723550 1746500 22950 23307170.06
988 0.6141845292 515 1746750 1802500 55750 0
989 0.3916319175 487 1706150 1704500 -1650 865992470.1
990 0.0065205602 376 1545200 1316000 -229200 66037563995
991 0.1944180167 457 1662650 1599500 -63150 8267855720
992 0.7537981935 535 1775750 1872500 96750 0
993 0.0997522679 436 1632200 1526000 -106200 17950037495
994 0.6963023511 526 1762700 1841000 78300 0
995 0.0603825537 423 1613350 1480500 -132850 25801274070
996 0.7941280101 542 1785900 1897000 111100 0
997 0.3722827841 484 1701800 1694000 -7800 1265776295
998 0.7455365817 534 1774300 1869000 94700 0
999 0.5788966064 510 1739500 1785000 45500 0
1000 0.281486053 472 1684400 1652000 -32400 3621361595
 Profit
Average 27777.75
500 SD 104595.8 Downside risk measures: 1. semi variance
50 Number of 383 2. semi SD
P(loss) 0.383

Value at Risk (VaR) @5% -153350

CVaR (conditional Value at Risk) -198450
1. semi variance 11397007963
2. semi SD 106756.7701
 cost of buying 1.5 Demand uniform
selling price 2.5 between 40 70
scrap 0.5

trial no. demand cost revenue profit

1 61 91.5

rand
number
for
trial numb demand demand
1 0.95 60
2 0.896861 55
3 0.281706 40
4 0.543637 50
5 0.074164 40
6 0.617308 50
7 0.426464 45
8 0.151007 40
9 0.54037 50
10 0.576463 50
11 0.157334 40
demand prob cumulativelower limitupper limitdemand
40 0.3 0.3 0 0.3 40
45 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 45
50 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.8 50
55 0.15 0.95 0.8 0.95 55
60 0.05 1 0.95 1 60
damage if cumulative lower upper
accident probability probability limit limit damage policy
2000 0.3 0.3 0 0.3 2000 premium
4000 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 4000 deductible
8000 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.6 8000
Probability
12000 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 12000 of accident
20000 0.2 1 0.8 1 20000

Random random total total

no for no for damage if payout in payout in
trial no. accident accident? damage accident policy 1 policy 2
1 0.6850297 NO 0.424888 0 820 1500
2 0.3027373 NO 0.769888 0 820 1500
3 0.2422337 YES 0.122851 2000 2820 3500
4 0.5182926 NO 0.133947 0 820 1500
5 0.3965239 NO 0.518903 0 820 1500
6 0.3234934 NO 0.807777 0 820 1500
7 0.4376189 NO 0.138178 0 820 1500
8 0.6642005 NO 0.535865 0 820 1500
9 0.657338 NO 0.982601 0 820 1500
10 0.8649359 NO 0.557704 0 820 1500
11 0.5611329 NO 0.734314 0 820 1500
12 0.6040721 NO 0.0612 0 820 1500
13 0.0524573 YES 0.034817 2000 2820 3500
14 0.3569752 NO 0.641064 0 820 1500
15 0.4719834 NO 0.303746 0 820 1500
16 0.949519 NO 0.124413 0 820 1500
17 0.7284294 NO 0.571713 0 820 1500
18 0.7096874 NO 0.297006 0 820 1500
19 0.7499039 NO 0.407146 0 820 1500
20 0.4582892 NO 0.421816 0 820 1500
21 0.3049251 NO 0.922911 0 820 1500
22 0.9712649 NO 0.466662 0 820 1500
23 0.7442777 NO 0.208676 0 820 1500
24 0.7585106 NO 0.947207 0 820 1500
25 0.2288188 YES 0.924005 20000 10820 6500
26 0.8121694 NO 0.2874 0 820 1500
27 0.48139 NO 0.398275 0 820 1500
28 0.7301607 NO 0.23238 0 820 1500
29 0.5207818 NO 0.513548 0 820 1500
30 0.0383176 YES 0.207055 2000 2820 3500
31 0.5393791 NO 0.170659 0 820 1500
32 0.5460741 NO 0.481387 0 820 1500
33 0.1385926 YES 0.171669 2000 2820 3500
34 0.7926897 NO 0.278066 0 820 1500
35 0.8669491 NO 0.518339 0 820 1500
36 0.9733304 NO 0.054707 0 820 1500
37 0.3290014 NO 0.546466 0 820 1500
38 0.7833298 NO 0.420732 0 820 1500
39 0.8355288 NO 0.829681 0 820 1500
40 0.6281197 NO 0.25501 0 820 1500
41 0.7203601 NO 0.023897 0 820 1500
42 0.3465637 NO 0.023591 0 820 1500
43 0.0241754 YES 0.421679 4000 4820 5500
44 0.5499153 NO 0.024955 0 820 1500
45 0.1601333 YES 0.767919 12000 10820 6500
46 0.5392348 NO 0.918545 0 820 1500
47 0.4048988 NO 0.674234 0 820 1500
48 0.1547461 YES 0.801461 20000 10820 6500
49 0.2001575 YES 0.930015 20000 10820 6500
50 0.3295787 NO 0.948871 0 820 1500
51 0.4746124 NO 0.576237 0 820 1500
52 0.4180243 NO 0.324166 0 820 1500
53 0.411285 NO 0.935849 0 820 1500
54 0.3105885 NO 0.878715 0 820 1500
55 0.4175228 NO 0.573064 0 820 1500
56 0.2812474 YES 0.495885 4000 4820 5500
57 0.9446836 NO 0.070064 0 820 1500
58 0.4484409 NO 0.590212 0 820 1500
59 0.6623416 NO 0.233889 0 820 1500
60 0.4274433 NO 0.026019 0 820 1500
61 0.7212619 NO 0.456057 0 820 1500
62 0.3265665 NO 0.852311 0 820 1500
63 0.4004099 NO 0.126447 0 820 1500
64 0.963117 NO 0.432366 0 820 1500
65 0.2474986 YES 0.92716 20000 10820 6500
66 0.7278823 NO 0.073448 0 820 1500
67 0.7806124 NO 0.789319 0 820 1500
68 0.6155636 NO 0.11418 0 820 1500
69 0.4293308 NO 0.208539 0 820 1500
70 0.3014714 NO 0.46498 0 820 1500
 1 2
820 1500
10000 5000

0.3