How to Calculate the Output of a Solar Photovoltaic System - A Detailed Guide

The purpose of this article is to describe a detailed procedure that can be carried out to calculate the
energy output obtained from a solar photovoltaic array, considering the following factors:

Photovoltaic array area

Conversion efficiency of the solar modules
Geographic location
Tilt angle of the photovoltaic array
Operating temperature

There are many possible photovoltaic system configurations. This procedure is valid for a system
with the following characteristics:

Fixed system - no tracking

Tilted directly towards the north or south (depending on hemisphere)

For more complex configurations, such as an array located at a angle to the north-south axis or a
tracking PV system, the analysis includes much more variables and requires specialized software.

STEP 01 - DETERMINE THE PHOTOVOLTAIC ARRAY

AREA

This step is straightforward, it is only important to note that only the specific array area must be
taken into account. If the array is split into sections due to positioning issues, the individual areas of
each section must be added up, instead of considering the total area which includes the spaces in
between.

For this example, an array area of 20 square meters will be considered.

STEP 02 - DETERMINE THE TILT ANGLE OF THE

ARRAY

When determining the tilt angle, there are two possibilities:

 If the array will be fixed on an existing surface, such as a roof, the angle of the roof must be
measured.
If positioning is free, it is recommendable to determine the optimal tilt angle that will maximize
energy output.

For this example, a roof with a 15 slope will be considered.

STEP 03 - DETERMINE GEOGRAPHIC COORDINATES

AND CORRESPONDING SOLAR RADIATION

The NASA ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE DATA CENTER is an excellent web resource to

determine this information. The following wiki page provides a detailed guide on how to use the
resource:

http://thegrid.rexel.com/topics/energy_efficiency/w/solar_renewable_and_energy_efficiency/70.nasa
-atmospheric-science-data-center-solar-power-potential-according-to-location

The same coordinates of the example found in the link will be considered:

Latitude: 15.5149204
Longitude: -87.9922684

The corresponding levels of solar radiation are the following:

 The above table shows the monthly average radiation in kWh/m2/day. The row labeled "Tilt
15" specifies the values that should be used for this analysis. It is important to note that the optimal
tilt angle for the location in this example is 18.6, which means a system tilted at 15 should provide
an energy output close to the maximum. The yearly available insolation at 15 is 5.17 kWh/m2/day.

The table displays average radiation on a monthly and yearly basis. Any can be used depending on
the required analysis.

If the production profile throughout the year is required, photovoltaic system output should be
calculated on a month-by-month basis and then added up.
If only the yearly production value is required, the annual average solar radiation in the last column
can be used.

STEP 04 - OBTAIN THE CONVERSION EFFICIENCY OF

THE SOLAR PV MODULES

This value varies by type of solar panel, so the value used should be the one provided by your PV
module provider. Module efficiency may range from below 10% to about 20% depending on the
provider and technology. Thin-film modules tend to provide the lowest output per square meter,
poly-crystalline silicon modules are intermediate, and mono-crystalline silicon modules offer the top
efficiency. It is important to note that efficiency is correlated with price.

For this example, an efficiency of 16% will be considered, which is typical of poly-crystalline
modules. The installed capacity of the project in direct-current kilowatts would be:

CAPACITY (kW DC) = (1 kW/m2) x (20 m2) x 16% = 3.2 kW DC

For AC capacity, this value must be multiplied by the inverter efficiency, which is typically above
95%.

CAPACITY (kW AC) = 3.2 kW x 95% = 3.04 kW AC

STEP 05 - CONSIDER THE EFFECT OF

TEMPERATURE
 Solar PV module specifications include a temperature coefficient, typically expressed as percentage
per Celsius degree. The reference temperature is 25C, which is used as a standard for solar PV
module laboratory tests.

For example, if a 150-watt module has a temperature coefficient of -0.40% / C, operation at 40C
would result in an output reduction of:

Output reduction = (150 W) (15C) (-0.40%/C) = -6% or -9 w

Real output = (150 W) (94%) = 141 W

Notice the negative sign of the coefficient - this means that for temperatures below 25C the output is
actually increased above the rate value. Consider, for instance, 17C (8C difference).

Output increase = (150 W) (8C) (0.40%/C = 3.2% or 4.8 W

Real output = (150 W)(103.2%) = 154.8 W

To determine how conversion efficiency is affected, the same approach can be used. For instance, if
this solar panel has a conversion efficiency of 15% under standard conditions (25C), it would be
13.65% at 40C and 15.72% at 17C.

STEP 06 - CALCULATE ENERGY OUTPUT ON A

MONTHLY OR YEARLY BASIS

For this step, the following formula can be used:

ENERGY OUTPUT (kWh/month) = SOLAR ARRAY AREA (m2) x CONVERSION EFFICIENCY

x SOLAR RADIATION FOR THE MONTH (kWh/m2/day)

Here we are assuming:

Area = 20 m2
Conversion efficiency = 16%
Solar radiation according to NASA table
This process can be simplified by setting up a spreadsheet in Microsoft Excel.

The project will yield a yearly production of 6,034 kWh (DC), with higher production in the summer
months due to the increased solar radiation available. If inverter efficiency is considered, AC output
is 5,732.30 kWh.

Since the analysis is monthly, it is possible to set up a bar graph for a visual representation of output
throughout the year:
This system will allow a building with an average monthly energy consumption of 500 kWh or
below to become a net-zero energy building, since it is possible to meet 100% of energy needs with
the PV array. It is important to note that a net-zero energy building is not necessarily "off the grid" -
it simply means that energy exported to the electric utility grid is equivalent to energy drawn.

STEP 07 - CARRY OUT A FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

With the steps above, the technical analysis can be carried out. The following wiki pages provide
some guidance on financial analysis:

PAYBACK PERIOD

http://thegrid.rexel.com/topics/energy_efficiency/w/solar_renewable_and_energy_efficiency/69.esti
mating-payback-period-of-a-solar-pv-system-a-simplified-method
PV SYSTEM WITH A LOAN

http://thegrid.rexel.com/topics/energy_efficiency/w/solar_renewable_and_energy_efficiency/73.micr
osoft-excel-analysis-can-my-pv-system-pay-a-loan-with-its-savings

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atmospheric-science-data-center-solar-power-potential-according-to-location