Subject: International Negotiations Date: November 25, 2017

Name: Cristy Lou B. Olboc Professor: Sir Jumel Estraero

Section: FS401

Title: China North Korea Bilateral Relations in the Midst of Nuclear Crisis
Abstract
North Korea and China has been allies dating back from the Korean War. China
has been a major trading partner for its ally. North Koreas nuclear activities have long
been driving a wedge between the two countries. Chinas protective policy over North
Korea is changing as DPRKs aggressive actions escalate its stakes. This paper aims
to identify the current condition of China and North Korea in the midst of nuclear crisis.
The first part of the study the author acquaints the readers of the historic relationship
between the two countries. Chinas mediator role proved to be a disadvantage as China
faces pressure on both North Korea and the international community particularly US.
The paper seeks to answer the following questions:

How is the current condition of the relationship between china and North Korea?
What is Chinas stand on the occurring nuclear practices that DPRK is
conducting? How is it affecting their relationship?
What are the contradicting analyses and forecasts concerning their future
relations?
Methodology
Chinese and North Korean relationship was greatly affected by North Korean
active practice of nuclear test and the escalation of conflicts towards the international
community. This research is an interpretative method that focuses on understanding past,
present and future relations of China and North Korea in the midst of nuclear crisis.
The beginning of the research acquaints the readers about the brief background
of the Chinese and North Korean relationship. The research also seeks to understand
nuclear conditions of the two countries and the analysis was conducted in an historical
approach up to its current situation. Facts are gathered purely through research and
organized for a better understanding of the phenomena.
The current relationship between the two countries in the midst of North Korean
nuclear crises is also analyzed and carefully scrutinized different opinions of political
analyst and researchers. Analyses of other researchers, analysts and columnist in major
media outlet are also featured solely for theoretical interpretation.
Background
The North Korean Nuclear crisis is slowly turning out to be the pre-world war II
dilemma, with Chinese and US cooperation to address a common goal: denuclearization
of North Korea. However, for China as North Korean long term ally, it possess greater
loss if the Kim regime would crumble. China will have to deal with a multitude of North
Korean refugees while US influence would be an inch closer to its borders. The
relationship of North Korean and China dates back to the post-Korean war where Chinese
communism led by Mao Zedong supported the North Korean regime led by Kim-Il Sung.
The two countries oppose the ideology of democracy pioneered by the US-supported
South Korea and the United States. The signing of the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid
and Cooperation Friendship Treaty in 1961 between Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and
Kim Il-sung after the Korean War signaled the start of the relationship between the two
countries. Part of the treaty said that China would offer military assistance by all means
against an outside attack. It also promoted peaceful cooperation in culture, economic and
technology between the China and North Korea. The treaty is automatically renewed
every 20 years, with the current version in effect until 2021. China has been providing
military assistance and aid to the north ever since.
Chinas so-called China responsibility theory encompasses not only its
responsibility to its citizen. Its responsibility towards North Korea their long time
communist ally also aligned with their national interest. Maintaining North Korean as a
buffer state could help avoid Korean refugees to cross the borders to China. According
to Mike Mullen, former chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, the presence of
hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees flooding into China will generate
Instability on the peninsula that could cascade into the country, making Chinas challenge
of providing for its own people that much more difficult
To avoid such instability to happen China has been providing North Korea with
most of its food and energy supplies since after the Korean War. Trade with China
accounts for more than 90 percent of North Koreas total trade volume. In the first half of
2017, China-North Korea trade totaled $2.6 billion, up 10 percent from the same period
in 2016. Figure one illustrates the trade volume that
China accounted for 92% of North Koreas trade in 2016. In 2015 China
established a high-speed rail route between the Chinese border city of Dandong and
Shenyang, the provincial capital of Chinas northeastern Liaoning province intention of
boosting bilateral economic linkages. An increase of North Korean export of coal is also
notable with both countries opening a bulk cargo and container shipping route. In the
same year opened border trade zone opened in Dandong. Dandong is North Korea's
gateway to the world - a place where the long alliance between the two countries takes
physical form. Dandong is a critical hub for trade, investment, and tourism for the two
neighborsexchanges with North Korea make up 40 percent of the citys total trade and
70 percent of trade in and out of North Korea is conducted via Dandong and Sinujiu.
Established informal trade along the Chinese -North Korean border also occur. Items
such as fuel, seafood, silkworms, and cell phones signal that despite stricter sanctions,
smugglers are likely to continue to operate. Beijing also provides aid directly to
Pyongyang, primarily in food and energy assistance. China, Japan, South Korea, and the
United States have provided more than 75 percent of food aid to North Korea since 1995,
but donations from all countries except for China have shrunk significantly since the
collapse of the Six Party Talks in 2009. (Albert, 2017)
Figure 1: China and North Korea Trade volume in years 2000 2016

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-north-korea-relationship

North Koreas nuclear aggression partially affected the credibility towards its long
term ally China. Kim Jong Uns uncontrollable agenda tainted the way the international
community perceives China. On one side, Chinas pacifist attitude towards the effects of
nuclear activities conducted by DPRK questions Chinas priorities in maintaining its
concern towards humanitarian issues that may occur if Nuclear Test in North Korea went
in the wrong direction. In the other, does China as a superpower, only prioritize its national
interest rather than promote international peace.

China and North Korea as Communist States

Evidently, the two regimes share the military first policy (Songun/ ) in the
sense that political monopoly in both states is secured by the military. (Ikegami, 2012)
Chinas aggression on maritime disputes and North Koreas nuclear exercises are evident
example that both states exercise military muscle in handling crisis.
The Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty is the first
formal symbolism that both countries intend to cooperate with each other, despite them
fighting together in the Korean War It is bounded by the principle of Marxism-Leninism. It
states that both country should practice mutual respect for state sovereignty and territorial
integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality
and mutual benefit, and mutual assistance and support, to make every effort to further
strengthen and develop the fraternal relations of friendship, co-operation and mutual
assistance it was signed on July 11, 1961 by Chou En-lai (China) and Kim Il Sung (DPRK)
To ensure Chinas adherence to the treaty Kim Il Sung created the Juche
framework, limited Chinese influence in his country by exhorting Korean devotion to the
North Korean revolution as opposed to world-wide communist revolution. The North
Korean leadership has been successful in achieving a high degree of isolationism through
implementation of Juche. The word Juche refers to self-reliance and independence that
Kim Il sung is trying to achieve. This politico-philosophical ideology is a blend of
communism and Confucianism, and has been successful in justifying and legitimizing the
regime while isolating the state from significant foreign contacts. Under Mao Zedong
China followed the Soviet model of development through heavy industry with surpluses
extracted from peasants while consumer goods were left to secondary importance.
Maoists started a strong communist tradition, instituting the Great Leap Forward and the
Cultural Revolution. (Communism in China, n.d) The Great Leap Forward was instituted
to help transform China into a heavy industrialized society.
China and North Korea's mutual communist relationship started to drift apart when
China opened its market to the world. Deng Xiaoping emphasized the modernization of
the Chinese economy. This liberalization harbored negative sentiments for North Korean.
They perceived it as an act of abandonment from revolution for a place in the existing
international system. To make the cleavage even worst China recognized South Korea
as a state in 1992.

China and North Koreas Nuclear Programs

The North Korean Nuclear program has reached greater milestone in the past few
years. Various debates about how effective the UN sanctions and US diplomacy in
deterring the nuclear ambition has been conducted. However, there is definitely no
stopping the Kim regime in continuing its long time ambition.
The development of Nuclear Programs became a lesson the two countries learned
after their harsh experience in the war. This is based on the shared conviction of both
Pyongyang and Beijing that nuclear weapons are the absolute deterrence against the
threat of a US attack. This conviction originates from Mao Zedong and Kim Il-sungs
shared fear of a US nuclear attack during the Korean War. Consequently, Beijing and
Pyongyangs statements after their first nuclear tests, in October 1964 and October 2006,
respectively, are basically identical. Both claimed that the US nuclear threats compelled
us to develop nuclear weapons. 1(Ikegami,2012)

1
China-North Korea: Renewal of the Blood Alliance . April 5, 2012.
https://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/files/private/apb158_1.pdf .
 The table below shows a timeline of DPRK/PRC nuclear/missile development
milestones.

Timeline of DPRK/PRC nuclear/missile development milestones.

(Highlighted numbers represent achievements only attained to date by the PRC.)
Image: https://thediplomat.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/thediplomat_2016-
11-09_15-34-58-790x395.jpg

. In North Korean perspective, it is clear that the development of a nuclear weapons

strategy has occurred within an environment that is based upon a set of overriding
strategic principles that inform and influence all aspects of life within the nation, especially
political decision making. These principles are: 1) the survival and continued leadership
of the Kim family dynasty; 2) deterrence of the United States and its allies; 3) elimination
of internal threats; 4) economic development of the nation; and 5) reunification of the
Fatherland. (Bermudez,2015)2 China not yet a superpower after the war, first saw nuclear
weapons as paper tigers with little military value. Shortly after the Korean War, China
decided to embark on a nuclear weapons program. This decision was not a contradiction

Consequently, Beijing and Pyongyangs statements after their first nuclear tests, in October 1964 and October
2006, respectively, are basically identical. Both claimed that the US nuclear threats compelled us to develop
nuclear weapons.
2
Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr. "North Korean Thinking about Nuclear Strategy (1950-2014)." North Koreas
Development of a Nuclear Weapons Strategy: 8. http://www.38north.org/wp-
content/uploads/2015/08/NKNF_Nuclear-Weapons-Strategy_Bermudez.pdf.
in terms. Maos tune remained unchanged: the bomb was still a paper tiger, but there was
political and security value in getting it. It promised greater recognition on the world stage.
The framework above incorporates four key events: 1) commencing nuclear
development; 2) conducting an initial nuclear test; 3) developing the means to deliver a
nuclear payload; and 4) attaining recognition as a nuclear weapons state. (Lee,2016). 3
The aftermath of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki left an impact to as to how powerful
weapons of mass destruction are. Their mutual understanding about the possible effects
of acquiring Nuclear weapons stimulated them to produce their own. For North Korea,
what started out as a simple defense unit or what was called ABC (atomic, biological and
chemical) which lay the foundations for the development of its own rudimentary nuclear
scientific infrastructure. Through sending prominent individuals in USSR to be trained as
scientists and technicians, the regime initiated their first phase in developing its nuclear
program in 1962. Two atomic energy research centers were established at Pakchon and
Yongbyon where the Norths first nuclear research reactor and a 0.1 MWt critical facility
for the production of medical and industrial isotopes as well as basic research were
installed. Like its ally, China signed a secret agreement with Moscow in 1951, through
which China provided uranium ores in exchange for Soviet assistance in nuclear
technology. China began developing nuclear weapons in the late 1950s with substantial
Soviet assistance .China made remarkable progress in the 1960s in developing nuclear
weapons. The first Chinese nuclear test was conducted at Lop Nur on October 16, 1964.
It was a tower shot involving a fission device with a yield of 25 kilotons. Uranium 235 was
used as the nuclear fuel. In less than 32 months, China detonated its first hydrogen bomb
on June 14, 1967.
4Kim Jong Ils unstoppable nuclear ambitions appears to be glorifying his rule as a
dictator and his regime too much that even Donald trumps recent assessment on the
North Korean leader is a "madman" who is "on a suicide mission for himself It is compared
to Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos who initiated the creation of nuclear facilities in
the Philippines. Nuclear facilities in Bataan should supply atleast 10% of Luzon, the
countrys largest island. 5 But It is clear to local opponents states that the reactor is not in
their interest. As one told a visiting priest, This nuclear plant is not really for electricity. It
is so our president will be powerful.6 ." However, CIA officials view Kims actions are not
those of a maniacal provocateur but a "rational actor" who is motivated by clear, long-
term goals that revolve around ensuring regime survival.

3
Lee, 38 North / Charles. "North Korean and Chinese Nuclear Weapons Development: Two Peas in a Pod?" The
Diplomat. November 10, 2016. Accessed November 21, 2017. https://thediplomat.com/2016/11/north-korean-
and-chinese-nuclear-weapons-development-two-peas-in-a-pod/.
4
Kim Jong Ils unstoppable nuclear ambitions appears to be glorifying his rule as a dictator and his regime too
much that even Donald trumps recent assessment on the North Korean leader is a "madman" who is "on a suicide
mission for himself." However, CIA officials view Kims actions are not those of a maniacal provocateur but a
"rational actor" who is motivated by clear, long-term goals that revolve around ensuring regime survival.
5
Op. Bataan Nuclear Power Plant. Accessed November 22, 2017. http://www.napocor.gov.ph/index.php/bataan-
nuclear-power-plant.
6
Bello, Walden, John Harris, and Lyuba Zarski. "The Philippine Reactor Controversy." Review of Radical Political
Economics: 52. http://nautilus.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Nuclear-Philippines.pdf.
 Today, North Korea is way ahead of China in producing WMDs despite it being an
isolationist state. According to analysts, there are five sources of North Korea's nuclear
funds. Their primary source of funding comes from its richest ally: China. Three fourths
of its total trade comes from its communist neighbor China and this is according to the
U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Scott Snyder, director of the Program on U.S.-
Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, stated that China has enormous
leverage to influence stability in North Korea, however they are reluctant to utilize it due
to the adverse consequences of Chinese interests in North Korea. Due to the
authoritarian nature of government North Korea has, they are ranked as one of the worst
humanitarian states in the world. By forcing North Korean laborers in china and Russia,
Pyongyang was able to accumulate funds to keep their nuclear ambition afloat. Other
exports such as coal and minerals also bring in hard currency, in the form of Chinese
yuan, U.S. dollars and euros. Aside from forced slave labor, North Korea also run their
economy through trading armaments. According to Anwita Basu, a lead analyst for The
Economist Intelligence Unit, "The North Korean economy is basically being run by its
arms deals," She pointed to export deals North Korea has made with African countries;
other political analysts have speculated that there is cooperation between North Korea
and Iran on nuclear weapons development. North Korea also have their own a large illicit
drug industry. The Atlantic Council's Robert Manning said that he have seen samples of
North Korean pirated Viagra that looks very authentic. It has been a significant source of
hard currency. North Korea has a long history of state-sponsored production and
smuggling of narcotics, including heroin from poppies grown on farms and synthetic drugs
prepared in university laboratories.(Ryall,2017)7 Starting in the late 1990s
methamphetamine was used as a medication in the North, which helped to fuel its spread.
The regime began exporting to China, with the Chinese government confirming in 2004
that it had a problem with drugs smuggled over the border from North Korea. As sanctions
are being imposed to North Korea Cyber-crime is now a billion-dollar industry. Hard
currency generated from cyber-crime is undermining global efforts to impose economic
pressure on Pyongyang. As sanctions are imposed against its formal economy, North
Korea has increased the scale of its illegal businesses. The massive criminal
operation may be equivalent in size to the annual budget of the North Korean nuclear
weapons program. (Flatgard,2017)8
Despite China being the first to initiate Nuclear Programs, North Korea has
surpassed its ally in developing weapons of mass destruction. China has a total of 260
nuclear weapons with none being operational as of today. However, according to
Federation of American Scientists all of its nuclear weapons are in stockpile. They have
conducted approximately a total of 45 nuclear test starting from October 16 1964 until its
most recent in July 29, 1996. North Korea, as an emerging Nuclear power has conducted

7
(www.dw.com), Deutsche Welle. "North Korea 'ramps up manufacture of illegal drugs' amid sanctions | Asia |
DW | 21.08.2017." DW.COM. Accessed November 21, 2017. http://www.dw.com/en/north-korea-ramps-up-
manufacture-of-illegal-drugs-amid-sanctions/a-40169753.
8
"Cyber crime: North Korea's billion-dollar soft spot." The Interpreter. Accessed November 21, 2017.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/cyber-crime-north-korea-s-billion-dollar-soft-spot-0.
a total of approximately 6 nuclear tests with the first test conducted in October 2006 and
its most recent test: was in September 3, 2017 (Kimball, 2014)
China started to mediate on the Korean nuclear issue and host talks in 2003. From
April 2003 to October 2007, China hosted one round of Three-Party Talks together with
representatives from the U.S. and North Korea, and six rounds of Six-Party Talks adding
representatives from South Korea, Japan, and Russia. But the talks, didnt produce any
progressive outcome because in reality the so-called Three-Party Talks were no more
than separate talks between the Chinese and North Korean delegations, and the Chinese
and U.S. delegations. Through Chinese persuasion on both US and DPRK to agree to
conduct another round of talks and in August 27-29 2003 and was held in Beijing. The
Six-Party Talks produced three documents, including the September 19 Joint Statement
(in 2005), the February 13 Joint Document (in 2007), and the October 3 Joint Document
(also in 2007)laying an important political basis for peacefully resolving the Korean
nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiation. Regrettably, however, these agreements,
which brought about hope for removing the nuclear problem from the Peninsula, were
never implemented. However, it had failed again despite US providing $1.35 billion in
assistance.

In 2016, North Korea conducted more nuclear and long-range missile tests in
defiance of U.N. resolutions, earning widespread condemnation. The regime continues
to threaten nuclear attacks on the United States and its allies and is augmenting its
nuclear and missile-delivery capabilities. Philippines North Koreas fifth-largest trade
partner with the main exports of computers, integrated circuited boards, bananas and
womens undergarments. Cayetano said the country imposed a trade ban of raw
computer chips from the Philippines on September 2017.9

Presentation
Stakes:
Long-range missiles: First, North Korea is more advanced in her nuclear
weapons program. She has bombs and is working tirelessly to make more. In addition,
North Korea is developing long-range missiles which can deliver a nuclear bomb. It is
one thing to have short-range missiles that can target South Korea or Japan. Yet it is
another to have missiles that can reach Guam, Alaska, possibly the US mainland and
even Darwin, Australia. The risk of a rogue state having that kind of capability is simply
too much to bear.

The Trump factor: Second, the United States under President Donald Trump is
taking a whole new approach. Instead of practicing strategic patience, as earlier
administrations have done, Trump says the time of patience is over. He has spoken of

9
Mogato;, Manuel. "Philippines suspends trade with North Korea to comply with U.N. resolution." Reuters.
September 08, 2017. Accessed November 22, 2017. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-
northkorea/philippines-suspends-trade-with-north-korea-to-comply-with-u-n-resolution-idUSKCN1BJ10K.
the possibility of military action, even pre-emptively, if necessary, to stop North Korea
from advancing its nuclear and missile program.

ANZUS: Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has invoked the ANZUS
Treaty, with the support of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Formed in the 1950s,
ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand, and the US) means that if one ally is attacked, the
others will come to its defense. The only other time ANZUS was triggered was in 2001
by former Prime Minister John Howard just after the September 11th terrorist attacks.
This means that if America goes to war, Australia goes with it.

China: To add to the mix, China has weighed into the fray. As a neighbor to
North Korea, they have a great stake in stability. Yet they have given this warning: if
North Korea attacks the United States, they will remain neutral. If America attacks first,
they will stop them. Lets not forget that during the Korean War of 1950, that Mao
Zedong sent Chinese troops to North Korea. They like having a buffer state and do not
want North Korean refugees flooding its border.10

Moves:
North Korea has conducted six nuclear weapon tests - including last September 3
2017. Its nuclear ambitions started as a means of protection for North Korea and the Kim
regime, but now with its High-end nuclear missiles it is clear that they trying to establish
themselves as a nuclear state.

On October 2006, Pyongyang carried out its first nuclear explosion in a tunnel in a
remote northeast mountainous area of Punggye-ri. The United Nations imposed
sanctions on trade, travel and other sanctions as a response. On the other hand, China
cautioned that all parties must avoid any acts that may cause escalation of tension. Wang
Guangya, U.N. ambassador for China stated, "I think that all sides have to exercise
restraint, No more provocation. And also the important thing is that in the face of such
crisis, I think it is all the more important for the international community to reinvigorate
diplomatic efforts to find a solution for the nuclear issue on the Korea Peninsula." China
stood as a mediator for its ally North Korea and US by hosting the Six-Party Talks. The
talks somehow delivered some results: North Korea agreed to close its main nuclear
reactor in exchange for an aid package worth $400 million and signed an agreement
stating it will begin disabling its nuclear weapons facilities. But the talks break down over

10
22, 2017 August, ShareGet LinkFacebookTwitterPinterestGoogle EmailOther Apps, AustraliaAustralian
PMChinaCubaDonald TrumpDr KameelGuamKameel MajdaliKim Jong UnMalcolm TurnbullNikita KrushchevNorth
KoreaTANTeach All NationsTeach All Nations IncUSA, Labels:AustraliaAustralian PMChinaCubaDonald TrumpDr
KameelGuamKameel MajdaliKim Jong UnMalcolm TurnbullNikita KrushchevNorth KoreaTANTeach All
NationsTeach All Nations IncUSA, 2017 June 03, 1. Comment, Read More, 2016 December 29, and Post A.
Comment. "Kameel Majdali's Road Ahead." NORTH KOREA: What Is At Stake? Accessed November 21, 2017.
http://majdali.blogspot.com/2017/08/north-korea-what-is-at-stake.html.
North Korea's refusal to allow international inspectors unfettered access to suspected
nuclear sites.

In May 2009, Pyongyang carries out its second nuclear weapon test. The Chinese
Foreign Ministry expressed its condemnation and stated: "The DPRK ignored universal
opposition of the international community and once more conducted the nuclear test. The
Chinese government is resolutely opposed to it". The statement also strongly demanded
that North Korea "return to the tracks of the six-party talks".

In February 2013 North Korea conducted its third and first test under new
leader, Kim Jong-un. China summoned the North Korean ambassador in Beijing to
express that the country was strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposed to the test.
China urged North Korea to stop any rhetoric or acts that could worsen situations and
return to the right course of dialogue and consultation as soon as possible. Analyst said
that said the test was a major embarrassment to China, which is a permanent member of
the Security Council and North Koreas sole major economic and diplomatic ally.

In January 2016 - North Korea says it conducted a fourth test - a miniaturised

hydrogen bomb. Chinas foreign ministry statement said that it is firmly opposed to North
Koreas nuclear test. It strongly urged the DPRK to honor its commitment to
denuclearization and stop taking actions that worsen the situation. The statement also
underscored Chinas resolve to deal with the North Korean nuclear issue within the
framework of the Six Party talks. This language is virtually identical to the wording that
Chinas foreign ministry used after the Norths February 2013 test. A sentence from the
2013 statement that was not included this time called on all parties to respond in a cool-
headed manner. The exclusion of any reference to other parties suggests that Beijing is
putting the onus on North Korea to act and views a strong international response as
acceptable.

September 2016 - A seismic activity of magnitude 5.3 was registered after an

explosion of about 10 kilotons - 10 times stronger than what Pyongyang was able to test
a decade earlier. China denounced the test, A statement from the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs quoted by AP said that China resolutely opposes the test and criticized
Pyongyang for its disregard for international sanctions. The statement also included a
plea to North Korea to not do anything that worsens the situation. Its response however,
shows the countrys stance as hesitant. Many in Beijing see American steps to neutralize
the North Korea nuclear issue as a "cover" for pushing ahead with another objective:
containing China. (Vinograd, 2016)

September 2017, the sixth nuclear test of North Korea was conducted. The timing
is significant as it signals Kim Jong-un's willingness to provoke China North Korea's sixth
nuclear test was conducted as leaders from Russia, Brazil, India, and South Africa flew
into China for the much-heralded BRICS summit of emerging economies, at which
Chinese President Xi Jinping was due to give a speech. It is the second time this year
North Korea has spectacularly disrupted Beijing's attempt to highlight its place on the
world stage. Xi's One Belt One Road forum, with 30 world leaders in attendance, was
punctuated by a North Korean missile test.

Players:
On the international stage, the main players are nation states who enjoy sovereign
rights endowed by the U.N. Charter and international law. Powerful states may have
greater influence over the international situation, but they should also bear the
consequences of what they say or do. China, although a superpower, may find its interest
at risk while assuring North Korean denuclearization. Smaller or weaker states may
counter or respond to pressure from powerful states, but there is a price to pay for doing
so. Like North Koreas retaliation opposing UN sanctions is risking its economic support
and aid from its ally. Contradictory to its main goal, Pyongyang seems to be driving a
cleavage between its country and its longtime ally China, earning the ire of the
international community, plunging its citizens to hunger and increasing the possibility of
its looming collapse. The international situation often evolves as the result of actions and
counteractions by states over specific issues, whereby tension between states can rise
and even intensify, leading the situation in an unexpected direction.

Outcomes:
According to Fu Ying (2017) there are three possibilities where the Korean nuclear
issue is heading:
First possibility: The vicious cycle of U.S. and U.N. sanctions followed by North
Korean nuclear and missile tests goes on until reaching a tipping point. For an isolated
and relatively independent country such as North Korea, sanctions may exert huge
pressure, but the country can hold up and will not give up nuclear development just
because of them. As a matter of fact, North Korea started nuclear testing after sanctions
started, and it has conducted five tests against the background of intensified sanctions.
So it is not hard to see that this situation could make the issue drag on into a spiral of
intensified sanctions and continued nuclear testing until Korean nuclear and missile
technologies reach a tipping point. At that point, those who oppose North Korea
possessing nuclear weapons would be faced with the hard choice of taking extreme
action with unknown consequences, or tolerating it. This pattern is difficult to change
because of two factors: First, North Korea is determined to possess nuclear capabilities
in order to ensure its own security. This has been its policy choice, and has been
increasingly reinforced over recent years. North Korea has perceived external security
pressure and has not been successful at acquiring a security guarantee, despite having
attended different forms of peace talks. The events in other countries like Libya have
also affected Pyongyangs thinking. Secondly, the United States is unwilling to make any
compromise and refuses to make a deal with North Korea, and this has become a
politically correct view, especially in the military and strategic circles. In the meantime, the
U.S. is also making use of the tension to invest heavily in strategic deployment and
military activities in Northeast Asia and, therefore, cannot focus itself on resolving the
nuclear issue. Given its political habits, any adjustment in policy toward North Korea
would meet strong resistance. Whether President Donald Trump can free himself from
the old inertia and find a way out remains to be seen. In the U.S., there is often talk about
the military option. Every time this is seriously considered, the analysis invariably shows
that, given the heavily deployed conventional and strategic weaponry across the
Peninsula, military action, big or small, would cause huge civilian casualties and results
that are hard to control. Keeping the military option on the table also threatens stability
and is a source of mistrust among the countries involved. As the situation gets closer to
a tipping point, it is all the more important for the U.S. to carefully calculate its moves and
for China and the U.S., as well as other countries concerned, to better coordinate on
future steps.
Second possibility: The North Korean regime collapseswhich is what the U.S.
and the South Korea want the most. The U.S. has long taken a stance of non-recognition
and hostility toward North Korea, with regime change as its main goal. This was also one
of the fundamental principles of President Obamas policy of strategic patience. To a large
extent, the persistence of the U.S. in intensifying sanctions while giving no chance for
talks had the intention of pushing North Korea to undergo internal changes. In the U.S.,
contact and dialogue with North Korea are often regarded as helping the regime and
hindering changes. That is why North Korea firmly believes that the U.S. will not change
its hostile policy and, therefore, that it should take a strong position to resist. The reality
is that the Korean economy has already passed through its most difficult time. Kim
Jongun, after taking up the mantle as North Koreas top leader, has stabilized the
domestic situation. Though North Koreas domestic policy and behavior have caused
wide resentment, the expectation of regime collapse as a solution to the Korean nuclear
issue may not be realistic in the short term.
Third possibility: Talks and serious negotiations restart, which may ease or even
resolve the nuclear issue. Admittedly, this is harder now as mistrust between the U.S.
and North Korea has grown deeper over the years, and the ups, downs, and many
setbacks throughout multilateral negotiations have undermined the parties confidence in
dialogue. But past experience shows the obvious benefits of talking: First, talks helped
stabilize the situation and created conditions for addressing mutual concerns. Second,
talking opened the way to reaching various agreements. The September 19 Joint
Statement, February 13 Joint Document, and October 3 Joint Document, which were
achieved through the Six-Party Talks, represent the maximum consensus among all
parties and together provide a roadmap for a political solution to the Korean nuclear issue.
The disruption of the talks was due to a failure to implement the agreements, and the
nuclear issue has escalated in the absence of talks. It should be noted that, after years
of escalation, the ground has shifted and the basis for negotiation has changed
significantly since 2003. If talks are resumed, whether all parties can accept such a reality
and whether they can restart negotiations without preconditions remains an open
question. In other words, if some parties assume nothing has happened or try to return to
the past without considering changes, it will be hard for the new talks to succeed.
Currently, one realistic starting point may be a double suspension.11
Interpretation:

The Kim regime was able to maintain its power solely because of its well-
orchestrated government propaganda, long term manipulation and its isolationist policy.
Removing the shell of the Hermit Kingdom will weaken his regime and the unification of
the two Koreas could be possible. But that scenario is still far from sight. The Kim regime
is still adamant in maintaining its position while the international community have had
enough of the threat that it possess for international peace. So what can be done?
External Pressures such as coercive Diplomacy and tighter economic sanctions have
proved to have little effects in swaying the dictators mind or at the very least persuade
him to negotiate. The regime is still able to thrive through its illicit dealing and black
markets. Chinese pressure could have possible effects but China is not ready to risk its
own national security or the very least prepare for the aftermath of the regimes collapse.
Mr. Park Se Jun, a North Korean defector, has suggested that Internal Methods should
be considered. An internal revolution could pave the way of removing Kim Jong Un but
that would not be possible if the people inside the walls couldnt be reached by liberated
ideas.

Recommendations and Suggestions

Only on the collapse of the Kim regime the threat of Nuclear would be gone and
liberation or possible reunification would be possible.

On the international level of analysis, the international community should create a

solid monolithic coalition, including China to pressure North Korea into the negotiation
table. China should join the bandwagon of countries opposing North Koreas nuclear
aggression. With concerns to the aftermath, North Korean refugees should be taken care
of all the countries instead of making China take the entire burden.

Both in state and individual level, liberalization is only the first step for a revolution
and to its transition to reunification with the south. A government will only be legitimate if
the people agree to its establishment. For liberated ideas, the first channel to be
considered is the North Korean Elites who have a contact with the outside world. They
should be assured that a unified Korea will benefit them and their family. And for them to
be able to do that, according to Bruce Bennett North Korean elites need a guarantee that
their safety and overall security will never be threatened; that their positions would be
maintained; that their families' safety and privileges be secure; and that they would have

11
Ying, FU. "The Korean Nuclear Issue: Past, Present, and Future A Chinese Perspective." April & may 2017.
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/north-korean-nuclear-issue-fu-ying.pdf.
some sort of meaningful role in a new, united Korea. Filipino elites like our national hero
Rizal believe that the necessity of education in the achievement of liberties. Most
importantly he believed that reforms to be fruitful must come from above.

Television signals can also spread liberalized idea. When the volume of North
Korean trade with China began to increase, Chinese television sets capable of receiving
signals from borders of China and South Korea.

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