Table of contents

7.1.3 Africa ............................................................................................................. 87

7.1.4 US.................................................................................................................. 89
7.1.5 Latin America .................................................................................................... 92
7.1.6 Saudi Arabia ...................................................................................................... 93
7.1.7 Indian subcontinent ............................................................................................. 94
7.1.8 China .............................................................................................................. 97
7.1.9 Oceania .......................................................................................................... 103
7.2 Trade in Ammonium Phosphates ................................................................................... 104
7.3 Outlook for Ammonium Phosphates ............................................................................... 120
7.4 Main Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 128

Section 2: Outlook for Processed Phosphate Prices ................................................................. 129

Chapter 1: Diammonium Phosphate Prices ........................................................................... 129

1.1 Current Situation..................................................................................................... 129
1.2 Market Fundamentals and Price Outlook ......................................................................... 135

Chapter 2: Monoammonium Phosphates ............................................................................... 144

Chapter 3: TSP ............................................................................................................. 148

Chapter 4: SSP .............................................................................................................. 151

Chapter 5: Phosphoric Acid .............................................................................................. 153

Appendices .................................................................................................................. 156

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Figures

Figure 1: Normal Market Cycle Range: Morocco DAP fob Bulk ......................................................... 11
Figure 2: World Fertilizer Consumption 1961-2013 ...................................................................... 13
Figure 3: Major Crop Export Prices ......................................................................................... 13
Figure 4: World Grains Stock-to-Use Ratios ............................................................................... 14
Figure 5: Index of World Fertilizer Consumption 1998-2028 (1998=1) ................................................. 15
Figure 6: World Phosphate Fertilizer Consumption 1998-2028 ......................................................... 16
Figure 7: US renewable fuel requirement ................................................................................. 19
Figure 8: SSP in India: Major Producers and New Capacity ............................................................. 70
Figure 9: North American Ammonium Phosphates Capacity and Logistics ............................................ 90
Figure 10: Indian DAP Capacity by Phosphate Feedstock ............................................................... 94
Figure 11: China Incremental High-Analysis Phosphate Fertilizers Capacity, 2005-15 .............................. 99
Figure 12: Ammonium Phosphates Trade, 2000-11 ...................................................................... 104
Figure 13: Moroccan DAP and MAP Exports ............................................................................... 105
Figure 14: Chinese phosphates exports by product, 2005-13 .......................................................... 117
Figure 15: DAP fob Prices ................................................................................................... 129
Figure 16: Major Crop Export Prices ...................................................................................... 131
Figure 17: Sulphur Prices, cfr North Africa (contract) versus fob Vancouver (spot) ................................ 132
Figure 18: Yuzhnyy and Middle East Ammonia Prices ................................................................... 134
Figure 19: DAP Costs and Pricing (Morocco).............................................................................. 136
Figure 20: DAP Costs and Pricing (Morocco) 2004 Onwards ......................................................... 137
Figure 21: DAP: Phosphate Rock and Process Costs plus Margin ...................................................... 138
Figure 22: Normal Market Cycle Range: Morocco DAP fob Bulk ..................................................... 139
Figure 23: Morocco versus US Gulf DAP fob .............................................................................. 141
Figure 24: Baltic DAP versus MAP Prices .................................................................................. 144
Figure 25: Baltic DAP-MAP Differential ................................................................................... 145
Figure 26: Sulphur Prices, cfr North Africa (contract) versus fob Vancouver (spot) ................................ 146
Figure 27: TSP versus DAP prices .......................................................................................... 148
Figure 28: TSP versus DAP Prices: Nutrient Equivalent TSP Prediction ............................................... 149
Figure 29: TSP Nutrient Equivalent Prediction Differential ............................................................ 149
Figure 30: Phosphoric Acid Prices cfr India .............................................................................. 154

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