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EXPLORACION, PRODUCCION Y PRECIOS DE HIDROCARBUROS

EN AMBIENTES DE INCERTIDUMBRE
Quijada, Rodolfo
Universidad Central de Venezuela
Especializacin en Poltica y Comercio Petrolero Internacional
Noviembre 2017.
EXTRACTO: La evaluacin adecuada de los riesgos e incertidumbres representan
herramientas para ayudar a las compaas petroleras y gasferas a mantener ventajas
competitivas, y para ello utilizan los clculos tradicionales del denominado paradigma
aleatorio, donde la aproximacin probabilstica ha sido siempre considerada la ms
importante para la toma de decisiones. Sin embargo, la adecuada utilizacin del paradigma
aleatorio exige conocer suficiente informacin histrica que permita ajustar la distribucin
de probabilidad o utilizar un criterio experto que posibilite definir probabilidades subjetivas
a los escenarios de las variables consideradas. La investigacin realizada muestra que las
tcnicas utilizadas en este paradigma no siempre logran captar los movimientos adversos de
los factores asociados con el mismo, ya sea por la incertidumbre inherente a los datos, por
la imposibilidad de cuantificarlos, o por no asimilar a la nocin de probabilidad otras
nociones utilizadas para la medida de la incertidumbre, como confianza, credibilidad,
confirmacin o creencia, no as otras, como por ejemplo las de sorpresa y plausibilidad.
Unido a lo anterior, a medida que transcurre el tiempo, la fenomenologa petrolera y
gasfera va cambiando con mayor rapidez y esto hace que la direccin de los
acontecimientos no sea siempre en el mismo sentido, sino que se producen movimientos en
zig-zag. Resulta cada vez ms difcil tomar los datos del pasado como base para estimar las
realidades esperadas del futuro. Consecuencia de todo ello es la aparicin de toda una gama
de hechos y fenmenos que resultan de difcil explicacin formal y que van siendo
aparcados en lo que se ha llamado rincn de las anomalas. Es por esta problemtica
planteada, en el marco de este trabajo se propone el paradigma difuso, basado en la lgica
difusa con el que se aporta un conocimiento vago, un conocimiento verdadero e inexacto
por difusin ( en un intervalo de confianza que se espera contenga el verdadero valor de la
variable), en donde la informacin histrica aporta muy poca o ninguna informacin,
adaptado a una realidad con situaciones ciertas, simples, estables (estacionarias),
reversibles y que pueden ser analizadas de forma aislada y alternativamente, enfrentar
situaciones inciertas, complejas, inestables e irreversibles en el tiempo y que adems tiene
su basamento en el nuevo "principio de la simultaneidad gradual", cuyo enunciado es el
siguiente: "Una proposicin puede ser verdadera y falsa a la vez, a condicin de asignar un
grado a la verdad y un grado a la falsedad".Visto de esta manera, la tcnica de la lgica
difusa est emergiendo ahora como el nuevo paradigma en el anlisis de la incertidumbre y
se aborda aqu como la panacea para manejar los riesgos y las incertidumbres en la toma de
decisiones realizadas por las compaas en la explotacin de los yacimientos petrolferos y
gasferos.
PALABRAS CLAVE: paradigma aleatorio, probabilidades subjetivas, paradigma difuso, lgica difusa,
fenomenologa petrolera y gasfera.
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