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Oracle Demantra

Demand Management User Guide


Release 7.1.1
Part No. E05179-01

March 2007
Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide, Release 7.1.1

Part No. E05179-01

Copyright 2007, Oracle. All rights reserved.

Primary Author: Jason Lansdowne

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Contents

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Preface

1 Introduction to Demand Management


Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1-1
What is Demand Management?................................................................................................ 1-1
Why Manage Demand?............................................................................................................. 1-2

2 Demand Management Overview


Oracle Demantra Demand Management Overview................................................................. 2-1

3 Demand Management Worksheets


Worksheets Overview............................................................................................................... 3-1

4 Configuring Demand Management


Overview of the Configuration Process.................................................................................... 4-1
Configuring Demand Management Users................................................................................4-2
Configuring Approval Workflows........................................................................................... 4-5
Configuring the Base Time Unit and Time Bucket Start Day................................................4-12
Configuring the Item Short Name and Description...............................................................4-16
Controlling System and Engine Maximum Sales Dates........................................................ 4-17

A Demand Management Levels and Series


Demand Management Levels................................................................................................... A-1

iii
Demand Management Series.................................................................................................... A-3

Index

iv

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Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide, Release 7.1.1


Part No. E05179-01

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v

Preface

Intended Audience
Welcome to Release 7.1.1 of the Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide.
See Related Information Sources on page viii for more Oracle Applications product
information.

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Structure
1 Introduction to Demand Management
2 Demand Management Overview
3 Demand Management Worksheets
4 Configuring Demand Management
A Demand Management Levels and Series

Related Information Sources


This is the Release 7.1.1 of the Oracle Demantra Demand Management User's Guide.
This manual describes the features that are available when you access Oracle Demantra
Demand Management as a Demand Planner, Demand Plan Manager, or Demand
Administrator. If this guide refers you to other Oracle Demantra Applications
documentation, use only the 7.1.1 versions of those guides.
Documentation on OracleMetaLink can be found at http://metalink.oracle.com.

Online Documentation
All Oracle Applications documentation is available online (HTML). Online help is
available for end users of Oracle Demantra Demand Management. Online help patches
are available on OracleMetaLink.

Oracle Demantra User's Guide


This guide explains how to log in to Demantra, use worksheets, and navigate using the
Graphical User Interface (GUI) available with Oracle Demantra.

Oracle Demantra Foundations Implementation Guide


This guide provides information for a system administration who sets up the Oracle
Demantra application. This guide also includes reference information on key database
tables, client and server expressions, and configuring the various Demantra
applications.

Do Not Use Database Tools to Modify Oracle Applications Data


Oracle STRONGLY RECOMMENDS that you never use SQL*Plus, Oracle Data

viii
Browser, database triggers, or any other tool to modify Oracle Applications data unless
otherwise instructed.
Oracle provides powerful tools you can use to create, store, change, retrieve, and
maintain information in an Oracle database. But if you use Oracle tools such as
SQL*Plus to modify Oracle Applications data, you risk destroying the integrity of your
data and you lose the ability to audit changes to your data.
Because Oracle Applications tables are interrelated, any change you make using an
Oracle Applications form can update many tables at once. But when you modify Oracle
Applications data using anything other than Oracle Applications, you may change a
row in one table without making corresponding changes in related tables. If your tables
get out of synchronization with each other, you risk retrieving erroneous information
and you risk unpredictable results throughout Oracle Applications.
When you use Oracle Applications to modify your data, Oracle Applications
automatically checks that your changes are valid. Oracle Applications also keeps track
of who changes information. If you enter information into database tables using
database tools, you may store invalid information. You also lose the ability to track who
has changed your information because SQL*Plus and other database tools do not keep a
record of changes.

ix
1
Introduction to Demand Management

Introduction
Oracle Demantra Demand Management provides access to your historical sales data,
returns, and other reference data organized into multiple hierarchies that reflect the
needs of your organization. An underlying spreadsheet provides a set of calculated
(and input) values that you can use at any hierarchy level.
Within Demand Management, you work almost entirely within worksheets. A
worksheet retrieves a set of data associated with given hierarchy levels, optionally
filtered; the data generally includes historical sales data, the forecast, and intermediate
data.

What is Demand Management?


Demand Management is used to enable organizations to produce unconstrained
forecasts for future demand and generate tactical, operational, and strategic business
plans. Demand Management captures and processes information from multiple sources
and consolidates demand so that it can be summarized by item, product line, region,
time, and organization.
There are three key areas of focus in improving Demand Management processes. They
are: achieving consensus, improving accuracy, and reducing process cycle time. Getting
an entire organization to one expression of "the forecast" is the most important goal of a
good Demand Management process. This requires the ability to gather and consolidate
all the sources of demand information. It also requires providing secure, portal based
access to receive, analyze, and submit forecast data, and the ability to express the data
in the right format. For example, see forecast by region in dollars and forecast in units
by shipping facility and so on.

Introduction to Demand Management 1-1


Why Manage Demand?
While demand is inherently variable and some inaccuracy is inherent, improving
accuracy is also critical. Improving accuracy requires improvements in several areas.
For example, organizations use statistics to better estimate patterns, they consolidate
quantitative and qualitative judgment, and use performance management to drive
continuous improvement over time. Perhaps the most important area is reducing the
cycle time of the demand management process. The longer the process takes, the more
inaccurate it will be, the further in advance of actual events the prediction will be, and
the process will also become less frequent. Cutting time out requires powerful analytic
tools to quickly assess and understand demand and automating processes to allow for
management by exception.

1-2 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


2
Demand Management Overview

Oracle Demantra Demand Management Overview


Oracle Demand Management is a configurable web-based product to help your
organization perform demand planning and forecasting. Demand Management is built
around collaboration, and takes advantage of workflows to automate the Demand
Management process.
The process of demand planning generally consists of studying historical sales data and
trying to predict future demand as closely as possible. The goal is to achieve an
appropriate balance between meeting customer demands as quickly as possible and
making or buying only as much of each product as required.
A demand plan is based on a forecast, which in turn is a prediction of tendencies in the
supply chain over a period of time, influenced by seasonal and other predictable factors.
The result of a forecast is a projected curve that has been smoothed to show tendencies
and de-emphasize the exceptional variations.
In general, the demand plan and forecast are used in downstream operations such as
production planning. Depending on how your system has been configured, it either
exports such data automatically or contains reports that you use for that purpose.

The Demand Management Process


Demand Management is an iterative process, that typically takes place in the weekly,
biweekly or monthly cycles. This process includes:
1. Collecting the appropriate data from an ERP or other system of record.

2. Downloading the appropriate data to the Demantra database.

3. Generating a forecast and then sending a notification to demand analysts.

4. Demand analysts work with the forecast and making any corrections or

Demand Management Overview 2-1


adjustments.

5. Demand manager or designated forecast owner approves the forecast.

6. The approved forecast is uploaded to your ERP system.

Collect and Download Data


Most businesses have a regularly scheduled Demand Management process that can be
monthly, weekly or, in a few cases, daily. During this period, data from various sources
are loaded into the Demand Management system for use in forecasting future demand.
The source systems can be an ERP system, legacy system or another Oracle APS
(Advanced Planning Suite) module such as Advanced Supply Chain Planning,
Inventory Optimization, Global Order Promising or Collaborative Planning.
Once loaded, the administrator ensures that planners have access to the data they
require. For example, each planner may be responsible for planning the demand for a
particular region or product line. Although planners can view data for all lines of
business they are given access to, they are only able to modify data for which they have
permissions.

Generate the Forecast and Send Notifications


After the download is complete, the administrator (or an automated process) runs the
forecast and resets the approval series. After successful calculation of the forecast, the
appropriate users are automatically notified that their forecast is available for review.
The forecast, forecast accuracy measures and Demand Priority information are available
in predefined worksheets for analysis for all users.

2-2 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Note: In the event of an unsuccessful download or forecast generation,
the Administrator can check the batch log for information on problems
that arose during processing and forecast generation.

Manage and Approve the Forecast


The approval process is built around two user-types: the Demand Administrator and
Demand Analyst. During implementation, Demand Administrators configure the
approval process by specifying a reviewer who has final approval of the forecast. Each
group of Demand Analysts should have one final approver.
At the start of the approval process, a notification appears in the My Tasks window
informing Demand Analysts that a forecast is available for the current planning cycle.
Analysts can review their planning data (including the forecast) using one of the
pre-seeded worksheets:
Waterfall Analysis: Product Category and Zone

Waterfall Analysis: Product Category and Organization

Demand Analysis: Product Category and Organization

Demand Analysis: Product Category and Zone

Demand Analysis: Item and Organization

Demand Analysis: Item and Zone

Using the graphs and reports found in these worksheets, analysts view and adjust their
forecast data. They analyze history to understand shipped, booked and customer
orders, inventory levels and other factors. For example, an analyst may consider any
upcoming events or promotions that may impact the demand as well as their customer
and sales forecast.
Based on this information, analysts modify the forecast and can run a simulation that
repopulates the worksheet with the changed data. Once their analysis and
modifications are complete, the analyst saves the changes and selects Done for the
relevant notification in the Collaborator Workbench's My Tasks view, which notifies the
demand plan manager or administrator.
These changes to the forecast are available for review by an approver. One or more
people can do the review. For example, if the analysts are responsible for demand by
region, a regional manager may approve or change the analyst's changes. Or, if an
analyst's responsibility is broken down into product lines, then the product line
manager may have final approval. Demand Management's pre-seeded approval process
is setup for one level of review. Additional levels of review require changes to the
pre-seeded Approval workflow.
The final approver can lock the forecast at any time by checking the Final Approval

Demand Management Overview 2-3


column. After review, the final approver accepts the forecast by selecting the Done
button in My Tasks for the forecast notification.

Upload the Forecast


Once approved, the Demand Administrator uploads the consolidated forecast for use in
other systems (for example, Oracle Advanced Supply Chain Planning) where the
unconstrained demand is used to drive the constrained demand.

Demand Management for Multiple Lines of Business


An organization's data is typically divided into several Lines of Business (LOB). For
example, a printer manufacturer may have Printers and Copiers lines of business.
Different lines of business generally have different demand management processes. The
difference in the planning process may be due to the following reasons:
Each line of business may have different planning cycles (such as weekly or
monthly) and may use different calendars (such as manufacturing or fiscal).

Each line of business may have different business requirements, such as


model-options forecasting, product family level forecasting, service parts
forecasting, and so on.

The lines of business may be in different geographical locations or may otherwise


have varying business practices.

Each line of business may have its separate group of planners who need to look at
the demand data pertaining to their respective line of business only.

A line of business demand plan refers to limiting the scope of a demand plan to
include only those level values (such as items, organizations, customers' ship to
locations, sales representatives) that pertain to the line of business.

When an organization has multiple LOBs, the data is often assigned to specific users
(for example based on product line or region), and the analyst is responsible for
determining the demand for that slice of data. When each analyst has reviewed and
approved his or her forecast, a master approver is notified and approves the forecast as
a whole.
The following diagram illustrates the demand management process with multiple lines
of business:

2-4 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Demand Management Overview 2-5
3
Demand Management Worksheets

Worksheets Overview
To manage or view forecasts and demand, you start in the Collaborator Workbench and
launch any of the relevant Demand Management worksheets. Worksheets with the
necessary series for analysis and modification of the forecast are available for the
analyst at the beginning of each cycle.

Worksheet Description

Demand Management Worksheets 3-1


Waterfall Analysis: Product Compare actual versus forecast demand, aggregated by
Category and Organization product category and organization, to determine prior
periods forecast accuracy.

Waterfall Analysis: Product Compare actual versus forecast demand, aggregated by


Category and Zone product category and zone, to determine prior periods
forecast accuracy.

Demand Analysis: Product Compare history and demand data in weekly time
Category and Organization buckets, aggregated by product category and
organization. Use this worksheet to manage and approve
the forecast.

Demand Analysis: Product Compare history and demand data in weekly time
Category and Zone buckets, aggregated by product category and zone. Use
this worksheet to manage and approve the forecast.

Demand Analysis: Item and Compare history and demand detailed data in weekly
Organization time buckets, by item and organization. Use this
worksheet to manage and approve the forecast.

Demand Analysis: Item and Zone Compare history and demand detailed data in weekly
time buckets, by item and zone. Use this worksheet to
manage and approve the forecast.

3-2 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Waterfall Analysis Worksheet

The first step in the Demand Management process is to look at your previous cycle and
determine how accurate your forecasts were. Using the Waterfall Analysis worksheets
you can compare actual versus forecast demand for individual product categories,
organizations, and regions (zones). By comparing actuals to forecast, demand planners
can identify problem areas, and deduce why forecast demand did better (or worse) than
planned.
For example, a retailer notices that some of their seasonal product categories did not
perform well during December. Using this data, your demand analyst deduces that an
unseasonably mild winter was to blame. Since this anomaly was restricted to December,
the demand analyst decides to not make any changes in future demand for those
products. Based on the results in the Forecast Accuracy worksheet, demand analysts
can make the required adjustments and take those lessons learned and apply them to
the next forecast.
The Waterfall Analysis worksheet is aggregated to the following levels, which allows
you to view and slice data depending on the details in which you're interested:
Product Category and Zone

Product Category and Organization

Demand Management Worksheets 3-3


The following archived forecasts are used in these worksheets:
4 Week Lag Forecast: The forecast series for the four weeks prior to the current
week.

8 Week Lag Forecast: The forecast series for the eight weeks prior to the current
week.

12 Week Lag Forecast: The forecast series for the 12 weeks prior to the current
week.

4, 8, and 12-Week Lag Absolute Percentage Error: A measure of forecast accuracy,


which is calculated as actual demand minus forecast demand, and displayed as a
percentage.

4, 8, and 12-Week Lag Absolute Deviation: A measure of forecast accuracy, and


represents the average amount that the actual demand varies from forecast
demand.

About the Forecast and Metrics View


The Forecast and Metrics view displays a table showing demand and forecast values for
individual products, broken down by weekly time buckets.

About the Absolute Deviation View

The Absolute Deviation view graphically represents the amount of deviation that exists
in your forecast at the four, eight and 13-week level, represented as total units. Use the
Absolute Deviation view to determine how much real demand differs from the forecast.

3-4 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


About the Forecast Percentage Error View
The Forecast Percentage view graphically represents the amount of deviation that exists
in your forecast at the four, eight and 13-week level, represented as a percentage of the
demand. Use the Forecast Percentage view to determine how much real demand differs
from the forecast.

Demand Management Worksheets 3-5


Reference
Basics:

Accessing this Worksheet Do one of the following:


1. In My Worksheets (in Collaborator Workbench), click
either DM: Waterfall Analysis Product Category and Org
or DM: Waterfall Analysis Product Category and Zone.

2. If a worksheet is currently open, click either DM:


Waterfall Analysis Product Category and Org or DM:
Waterfall Analysis Product Category and Zone and then
click Open.

Levels you can select Either:

Product Category and Zone

Product Category and Organization

3-6 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Time Aggregation Weekly

Business Data:

Series Group Series Description

Forecast Accuracy 4 Week Lag Forecast for the four weeks prior to the current
Forecast time bucket.

8 Week Lag Forecast for the eight weeks prior to the current
Forecast time bucket.

13 Week Lag Forecast for the 13 weeks prior to the current time
Forecast bucket.

4 Week Lag Absolute Deviation for the four weeks prior to the
Absolute Deviation current time bucket.

4 Week Lag Absolute percentage error for the four weeks prior
Absolute % Error to the current time bucket.

4 Week Lag % Percentage error for the four weeks prior to the
Error current time bucket.

8 Week Lag % Percentage error for the eight weeks prior to the
Error current time bucket.

13 Week Lag % Percentage error for the 13 weeks prior to the


Error current time bucket.

8 Week Lag Absolute percentage error for the eight weeks prior
Absolute % Error to the current time bucket.

8 Week Lag Absolute Deviation for the eight weeks prior to the
Absolute Deviation current time bucket.

13 Week Lag Absolute Deviation for the 13 weeks prior to the


Absolute Deviation current time bucket.

13 Week Lag Absolute percentage error for the 13 weeks prior to


Absolute % Error the current time bucket.

Demand Management Worksheets 3-7


Historical Demand Demand Unconstrained demand. Purple if out of stock.

Sales Demand Unconstrained demand. Purple if out of stock.

Demand Analysis Worksheet

Once you have reviewed your forecast from previous cycles to determine how accurate
it was, the next step is to review the forecast for the current planning cycle. The
Demand Analysis worksheets are available at the start of the planning cycle, and
display historical data, forecasted demand accuracy statistics and demand priority at
various levels of aggregation.
You can use the Demand Analysis worksheets to view, edit, and approve the forecast
for individual weekly time buckets. The Demand Analysis worksheet is aggregated to
the following levels, which allows you to view and slice data depending on the details
in which you're interested:
Product Category and Organization

Product Category and Zone

3-8 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Item and Organization

Item and Zone

About the Demand Tracking Table


The Demand Tracking table compares sales and demand figures, at your chosen
aggregation level, in weekly time buckets. It gives analysts a side-by-side view of their
actual sales, demand and forecasted sales, along with Absolute Deviation and Absolute
Percentage Error for comparison.

This table tracks the following on a weekly basis:


History

History Override

Adjusted History

Baseline Forecast

Simulation

Base Override

% Chg to Base

Final Forecast

Absolute Deviation

Absolute Percentage Error

Demand Priority

This table also enables users to track final approval for each line in the forecast. For
more information, see Approving the Forecast, page 3-11.

Demand Management Worksheets 3-9


About the Demand Tracking Graph
The Demand Tracking graph displays the Sales, Demand, Sales Forecast, Simulation,
and Final Forecast values for the chosen product category over time.

About the Detail Demand Analysis Embedded Worksheet


The Detail Demand Analysis table is an embedded worksheet that compares sales and
demand figures for your chosen aggregation level, in weekly time buckets. It gives
analysts a side-by-side view of their historical sales, and forecasted sales, along with
Absolute Deviation and Absolute Percentage Error for easy comparisons.
Use this worksheet to look at the item level detail for the category. Analysts often look
at a higher level first and if the data is not what they expect, they drill down to lower
levels to see the detail. As you click on different categories, the detail level worksheet
reflects the items for the category, allowing you to review details for that particular
item.

Modifying Sales Override Values


1. In My Worksheets (in Collaborator Workbench), click Demand Analysis. Or if a
worksheet is currently open, click File > Open. Click Demand Analysis and then
click Open.

3-10 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


2. If the worksheet does not show data immediately, click Data > Rerun. Or click the
Run button.
This launches the Demand Analysis worksheet.

3. Enters data in the History Override field for history or base override and/or the %
Chg to Base field for the Forecast.
The results are shown in the Adjusted History and Final Forecast columns.

Note: You can select and edit multiple cells.

4. From the Data menu, choose Save Data. Or click the Save Data button.

5. From the Data menu, choose Rerun.


The worksheet updates to display the edited values.

Setting the Demand Priority


Note: This setting is only applicable for Demantra integrations with
EBS.

1. In My Worksheets (in Collaborator Workbench), click Demand Analysis. Or if a


worksheet is currently open, click File > Open. Click Demand Analysis and then
click Open.

2. If the worksheet does not show data immediately, click Data > Rerun. Or click the
Run button.
This launches the DM: Demand Analysis worksheet.

3. In the Demand Priority field, double-click the cell for which you want to set a
demand priority.

4. Enter the desired (numerical) priority.

5. From the File menu, choose Save Worksheet.

Approving the Forecast


Approvers are notified in the My Tasks window that a new forecast is available for the
current planning cycle.
1. In My Tasks (in Collaborator Workbench), click Demand Analysis. Or if a
worksheet is currently open, click File > Open. Click Demand Analysis and then
click Open.

Demand Management Worksheets 3-11


2. If the worksheet does not show data immediately, click Data > Rerun. Or click the
Run button.
This launches the Demand Analysis worksheet.

3. Do one of the following:


To approve a line item in the forecast, click the appropriate check box in the
Approve column.

To final approve a line item in the forecast, click the appropriate check box in
the Final Approve column.

4. From the File menu, choose Save Worksheet.

5. In My Tasks (in Collaborator Workbench), select the Demand Analysis worksheet


and then click Done.
Demand Management notifies the final approver when all analysts have approved
the current forecast.

Reference
Basics:

Accessing this Worksheet Do one of the following:


1. In My Worksheets (in Collaborator Workbench), click the
relevant worksheet.

2. If a worksheet is currently open, click File >Open. Click


on the relevant worksheet.

Levels you can select One of:

Product Category and Zone

Product Category and Organization

Item and Organization

Item and Zone

Time Aggregation Weekly unless Oracle Demantra was implemented with a


monthly or daily time period.

Business Data:

3-12 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Series Group Series Description

EBS Input Demand Priority The allocated demand priority (note that this is
series is only applicable for EBS integrations).

Forecast % Change to Base Factor override on sales forecast.

Base Override Manual override on sales forecast.

Final Forecast Final forecast (this appears in yellow if the


difference between final forecast and final partner
forecast does not meet the requirements of sales
forecast tolerance).

Baseline Forecast Analytical sales forecast including user simulations.

Simulation Analytical re-forecast triggered by a user simulation.

Forecast Accuracy Abs Deviation Absolute deviation for the fit forecast.

Abs % Error Absolute percentage error for the fit forecast.

Final Approval When checked indicates that the forecast has


received final approval.

Final Approved By User who final approved the forecast.

Historical Adjusted History Shipment History Request Date is the default.


Demand

History Historical actual sales/shipments. Shipment History


Request Date is the default.

History Override Manual override of historical actual sales/shipments.

Sales Adjusted History Unconstrained demand. Purple if out of stock.

History Historical actual sales/shipments.

History Override Manual override of historical actual sales/shipments.

Demand Management Worksheets 3-13


4
Configuring Demand Management

Overview of the Configuration Process


Demand Management works with supply chain planning data from external systems.
Ultimately, those systems own most of the data; and Demand Management is
responsible only for producing unconstrained forecasts for future demand and for
generating tactical, operational, and strategic business plans.
Demand Management is designed for minimum amount of configuration, and comes
with pre-seeded worksheets, users and groups, and workflows. To configure Demand
Management, the general steps are as follows:
1. Demand Management utilizes users and user groups to facilitate the forecast review
process. Pre-seeded users are provided in the Business Modeler. The Administrator
should modify these users to reflect the names of the analysts, forecast approver
and administrator. Forecasts from each analyst require approval from the final
approver.
In deployments using multiple lines of business, the Administrator should also
assign product lines, families, and so on to analysts using Demantra User Security
settings in the Demantra Business Modeler.
For more information, see Configuring Demand Management Users, page 4-2.

2. Demand Management uses the Archive Forecast, Demand Forecast, and Planning
Group workflows to facilitate approval process. These workflows must be
configured to include the user names of your Demand Analysts, Demand Manager,
and Demand Administrators.
For more information, see Configuring Approval Workflows, page 4-5.

3. By default, Demand Management uses a weekly base time resolution with a 4-4-5
weekly fiscal calendar hierarchy. This time resolution is fully configurable and may
be changed to either days or months. As well, you can configure forecast start day,
which is set to Monday by default.

Configuring Demand Management 4-1


For more information, see Configuring the Base Time Unit and Time Bucket Start
Day, page 4-12.

4. You can optionally configure the Demand Management worksheets to display item
short names and descriptions.
For more information, see Configuring the Item Short Name and Description, page
4-16.

5. You can configure how Demantra handles future data using the MaxSalesGen
parameter. This parameter determines how data after the end of history is
populated. Demand Management uses a configurable MaxSalesGen parameter to
control how the EP_LOAD process loads future data.
For more information, see Controlling System and Engine Maximum Sales Dates,
page 4-17.

6. Demand Management uses automated workflows to import sales and other


referenced data from external corporate systems. These workflows provide
integration to external systems such as Oracle EnterpriseOne and EBusiness Suite.
The actual workflows used depend on your ERP system configuration, and must be
modified. As well, you may be required to make certain changes within your ERP
environment.

Configuring Demand Management Users


During installation, Demand Management adds pre-seeded users and user groups that
are required by the application and used for the approval process. During the
configuration process, administrators should modify these users and groups to reflect
the analysts and approvers who will be performing approval tasks. The Administrator
also edits a pre-seeded Planning Group Workflow to specify the ID of the Final
Approver who will be notified when the Analysts forecasts are ready for review. For
more information on modifying user details, see Creating or Modifying a User in the
Demantra User Guide.
Demand Management adds the users Analyst 1-5, to the system; these users belong to
the new user group Demand Analyst. Admin1 and Manager1 are also added. These
users are used within the Demand Management workflows. For more information on
configuring these workflows, see Configuring Approval Workflows, page 4-5.

Filtering User Data


Note: Predefined users come with the ability to see all the data loaded
into the system. If there is a requirement to limit this, a data filter can be
applied to the users. For more information on filtering user data, see "
Creating or Modifying a User" in the Demantra Implementation Guide.

4-2 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


1. Log on to the Business Modeler.

2. From the Security menu, choose Create/Modify User.


The Create/Modify User dialog box appears.

3. Double-click the user icon for which you want to filter user data.

4. The User wizard appears.

5. Click the Next button until the Select User Filters dialog box appears. This dialog
box lets you filter the data that the user can see; specifically, you control which
levels and members the user can see.

Configuring Demand Management 4-3


6. Filter the data that the user can see, as follows:
Click a level in the left side of the dialog box and drag it to the box on the right.
Or double-click a level in the left side.

Now specify which members of this level the user can see. To do so, click a
member in the list, and then click the right arrow button. Or double-click the
member you want to filter out.

The system moves the selected members to the box on the lower right side, as in
this example:

7. Repeat the preceding steps for each filter you want to add. Each filter automatically
limits the choices available in subsequent filters.

4-4 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


8. When you have appropriately filtered data for the user, click Finish.

Configuring Approval Workflows


Oracle Demand Management uses the Archive Forecast, Demand Forecast and
Planning Group workflows to automate the approval process. These workflows are
pre-seeded to manage batch forecasting and facilitate the forecast approval process.
The workflows should be scheduled to run regularly by the Administrator. Specifically,
the workflows:
Reset the Final Approval and Final Approve By series to null.

Run the Analytical Engine to generate a statistical forecast.

Notifies all users in the Demand Analyst group that the forecast is available.

Notifies the Manager (the final approver), when all analysts have approved the
forecast or when the process has exceeded an allotted time.

Periodically rolls forecast data, based on engine profiles that are configured and
activated in the Business Modeler.

Although these workflows do not generally require customization, the Administrator


must ensure the Demand Analyst group contains the user names of the users who
modify the forecast and the Manager1 and Admin1 users have also been specified.

Note: Before configuring your approval workflows, you should


configure the users you plan to use for approvals.

Configuring the Demand Forecast Workflow


The Demand Forecast workflow runs when the EP_LOAD process has completed, and
resets the forecast approval status, generates a new forecast, and initiates the approval
process.
1. Log into the Workflow Manager.

2. Locate the Demand Forecast workflow, and click the corresponding Edit button.
The Edit Schema window opens, showing the Demand Forecast definition.

Configuring Demand Management 4-5


3. Double-click the NotifyForecastFinalApproved user step.
The User Step's Properties dialog box appears.

4-6 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


4. In the User drop-down list box, choose the Demand Management Administrator
account that you want to notify when the forecast has been approved. The default is
Admin1.

5. Click OK.

6. In the Workflow Editor, click the Save button.

Configuring the Planning Group Workflow


The Planning Group workflow is responsible for sending notifications to Demand
Analysts and Demand Managers when forecasts have been approved or a set time-out
condition is met.
1. Log into the Workflow Manager.

2. Locate the Planning Group workflow, and click the corresponding Edit button.
The Edit Schema window opens, showing the Planning Group definition.

3. Double-click the NotifyForecastComplete group step.


The User Step's Properties dialog box appears.

Configuring Demand Management 4-7


4. Do one of the following:
From the Users list, select the users that you want to notify when the forecast is
generated. To select more than one user, press and hold the Ctrl key while
clicking users.

From the Groups list, select the user group that you want to notify when the
forecast is generated. To select more than one user, press and hold the Ctrl key
while clicking groups.

5. Click the Time tab.

6. The Group Step's Properties dialog box appears.

4-8 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


7. In the Manager field, specify the user to notify if analysts' reviews are not
completed on time. The default user is Manager1.
By default, the workflow's timeout is set to five days and the alert is set to four
days. Depending on your planning cycle, you may want to increase or decrease this
value.

8. In the Timer section, enter a value (in days) at which point the workflow expires.
When this time is reached, the user specified in the
NotifyForecastAnalysisNotComplete step is initiated and the manager is notified
that some of the Analysts have not reviewed their forecasts.

9. In the Alert Time section, enter a value (in days) at which point the workflow
should send a reminder.

10. Click OK.

Configuring Demand Management 4-9


11. Double-click the NotifyForecastAnalysisComplete User Step.

The User Step's Properties dialog box appears.

12. In the User drop-down list box, choose the user that you want to notify when all
approvals are completed; the default is Manager1.

13. Click OK.

14. Double-click the NotifyForecastAnalysisNotComplete User step.

The User Step's Properties dialog box appears.

15. In the User drop-down list box, choose the user that is to be notified that the
Analysts' reviews are complete before the specified timeout. The default value is
Manager1.

16. Click OK.

17. In the Workflow Editor, click the Save button.

4-10 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Configuring the Approve Forecast Workflow
The Approve Forecast workflow rolls forecast data, based on the engine profiles
configured and activated in the Business Modeler. For more information, see
Configuring Rolling Data in the Demantra Implementation Guide.
1. Log in to the Workflow Manager.

2. Locate the Approve Forecast workflow, and click the corresponding Edit button.
The Edit Schema window opens, showing the Approve Forecast definition.

3. Double-click the User step.

4. In the User drop-down list box, enter the user name for the Demand Administrator
that you want to notify when the forecast is rolled; the default is Admin1.

5. Click OK.

6. In the Workflow Editor, click the Save button.

Configuring Approval Workflows for Multiple User Groups


If there is more than one group of Analysts and Managers (Final Approver) that review
and modify the forecast, then the Administrator must change the pre-seeded workflows
to handle the additional groups. Specifically, you must:
1. Duplicate Planning Group workflow with the following modifications for each
additional group:
1. Log in to the Workflow Manager.

2. Edit the Planning Group workflow.

3. In the Planning Group workflow's Group Step dialog box, add the additional
group and users that are part of the approval process.

4. Click the Time tab.

5. Check the Manager check box and select the Manager's ID from the list of
values.

6. Modify Timeout settings, if required.

7. Click OK.

2. Modify the Demand Forecast workflow to add additional ApproveForecast steps:


1. Log in the Workflow Manager.

Configuring Demand Management 4-11


2. Edit the Demand Forecast workflow.

3. Double click the Custom Step icon to add an additional custom step.

4. In the Class Name field, enter the class name. This should be the same as in the
original step. (For example,
com.demantra.workflow.step.WorkflowLauncherStep).

5. In the Parameters section, click Add.

6. Add the schema_id parameter, and assign it the same value as the schema_id
parameter in the duplicate Planning Group workflow created in step 1.

7. Add the user_id parameter, and assign it the same value as the user_id
parameter in the duplicate Planning Group workflow created in step 1.

8. Add the sync parameter, and assign it the same value as the sync parameter in
the duplicate Planning Group workflow created in step 1.

9. Click OK.

Configuring the Base Time Unit and Time Bucket Start Day
The default Demand Management time hierarchy is a 4-4-5 (week) fiscal calendar. You
can change this configuration to suit your business needs. If you change the base time
unit from Week to either Day or Month, then all worksheets and integration profiles
need to be re-configured. The data model must be upgraded for the changes to take
effect.
The base time bucket start day is Mondays by default, with the week ending Sunday.
The Demand Administrator may change this base time unit after initial installation
using the Business Modeler's Data Model wizard.

Note: This change will affect all users in the system and should be
coordinated through the Demantra system administrator. In addition,
changing this setting will clear all time dependant information in the
system and require a full historical refresh.

If the time bucket is changed from weekly to either daily or monthly, then the
corresponding series has to be created for the lagged forecast series used in the
Waterfall Analysis worksheets. For example, it may no longer be appropriate to use the
last 13 lagged forecast cycles as a base for the worksheet.

Changing the Base Time Unit and Time Bucket Start Day
1. Log into the Business Modeler. If you do not have access to this, contact your

4-12 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Demantra system administrator.

2. From the Data Model menu, choose Open Data Model.


The Open Existing Data Model/Template dialog appears

3. Double-click the Demand Management model icon.


The Data Wizard appears.

4. Click the Next button twice.


The Select Time Bucket dialog box appears.

Configuring Demand Management 4-13


5. In the Time Bucket field, choose the level at which you want your time buckets.

6. In the First Day of Week field, choose the day of the week on which you want to
start the time bucket.

7. Click the Next button until you reach the Finish Wizard dialog box.

8. Click the Build Model button.


The Build/Upgrade Model dialog box appears.

4-14 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


9. Now you can select whether to completely replace the existing data model or just
modify it:
If you want to completely replace the existing data model, choose Build New
Model and select one of the, following options:
Replace Series: Click this to completely replace the existing series
definitions.

Keep Series: Click this if you do not want to make any changes to the
existing series. This option is suitable if you are in the process of working
on the data model but do not want to spend the time updating the series
definitions right now.

Note: This option will delete all worksheets, integrations


and other aspects of the Demand Management application.

Alternatively, if you are just modifying an existing data model, select Upgrade
Existing Model. In this case, if you have made changes to the base time unit,
select Run Time Bucket.

10. Click OK.

The process of building the data model begins. This may take a few minutes.

Configuring Demand Management 4-15


Demantra highly recommends upgrading an existing model, rather
than building a new model. For more information, see
Building/Upgrading Models in the Demantra Implementation
Guide.

You will need to redefine integration profiles and worksheets if the


time levels specified therein are now invalid.

Configuring the Item Short Name and Description


Use the following procedure to configure your worksheets to display item short names
(for example, AS63311) and descriptions (for example, Vision Pad Gold Item 1).
1. Log on to the Collaborator Workbench.

2. In My Tasks, click the worksheet to which you want to add item short names and
descriptions.
Or if a worksheet is currently open, click File > Open. Click the worksheet to which
you want to add item short names and descriptions, and then click Open.

3. From the Worksheets menu, choose Layout Designer.


The Worksheet Designer appears.

4. Click the Aggregation button.

4-16 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


5. Do one or more of the following to add item short names and descriptions to the
worksheet:
To display the item short name, select Item.

To display the item description, select Item Description.

6. Click the Filters button.

7. Do one or more of the following to add item short names and descriptions to the
worksheet:
To display the item short name, select Item.

To display the item description, select Item Description.

8. Click OK.

9. From the Data menu, choose Rerun.

Controlling System and Engine Maximum Sales Dates


Traditionally, only historical information was loaded into Demantra using the
EP_LOAD process. All future information (that is, forecast data) is loaded using
integration profiles or other loading mechanisms. This mechanism controlled the dates

Configuring Demand Management 4-17


marked as end of history for the Forecasting Engine and the Collaborator Workbench.
With the addition of the MaxSalesGen parameter, you can now use the EP_LOAD
process to load future dates into Demantra. This parameter determines how data after
the end of history is populated.

Note: When populating the MaxSalesGen parameter, its important to


enter all dates in the MM-DD-YYYY 00:00:00 format.

Populating the MaxSalesGen Parameter


1. Log into the Demantra Business Modeler.

2. From the Parameters menu, choose System Parameters.


The System Parameters dialog box appears.

3. Click the System tab.

4. In the MaxSalesGen field, enter one of the following values:


Null: If you leave this parameter blank, Demantra compares the last date
loaded into the system to the current last system date. The latest of the two
dates is set to the last date of history.
Use this setting when only historical dates are being loaded.

Sysdate: Use this value to base the last date of history on the period containing
today's date. For example, in a weekly system with weeks beginning Monday, if
run on Feb 16th 2007 the last date of history would be set to the previous

4-18 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Monday 2/12/2007. For a monthly system run on the same date the end of
history would be set to 2/1/2007.
Use this value where the system date should match current date while allowing
future information to be loaded.

01-01-1900 00:00:00: Use this date to set the end of history to the last date in the
sales_data table where the actual_quantity column>0.
Use this value in production environments where future information is being
loaded but there is a lag in historical information availability. It is critical that
the data used to drive the engine be stored in the actual_quantity column. Note
that using this setting can potentially increase loading times for large
deployments.

Any date other than 01-01-1900 00:00:00: Any other date will cause the last date
of history to be based on the entered date. In a weekly system with weeks
beginning Monday, if date entered is Jan 16th 2007 the last date of history
would be set to the previous Monday 1/15/2007. For a monthly system run with
the same parameter setting the end of history would be set to 1/1/2007.
Use this value to test systems where the desired end of history date does not
match executed date. Allows users full control on dates assigned as end of
history and beginning of forecast.

5. Click the Save button.

Configuring Demand Management 4-19


A
Demand Management Levels and Series

Demand Management Levels


The following is a list of the available levels in the Demand Management application:

Available EBS Levels


For Item dimensions:
Demand Class

Item
Product Category

Product Description

Product Family

For Location dimensions:


Organization
Legal Entity

Operation Unit
Business Group

Sales Channel

Site
Account

Demand Management Levels and Series A-1


Customer
Customer Class

Trading Partner Zone


Zone

Available EnterpriseOne Levels


For Item dimensions:
Item
Item Category Code 1

Item Category Code 2

Item Category Code 3

Item Category Code 4

Item Category Code 5

Item Category Code 6

Item Category Code 7

Product Description

For Location dimensions:


Organization
Item Category Code 1

Item Category Code 2

Item Category Code 3

Item Category Code 4

Item Category Code 5

Branch City

Branch Country

A-2 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


Branch State

Site
Account

Customer Category Code 1

Customer Category Code 2

Customer Category Code 3

Customer Category Code 4

Customer Category Code 5

Customer Category Code 6

Customer Category Code 7

Customer City

Customer Country

Customer State

Trading Partner Zone

Demand Management Series


The following is a list of series used by the Demand Management application:

Series Description

% Change to Base Factor Override on Sales Forecast

1 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 1 Week ago.

10 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 10 Weeks ago.

11 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 11 Weeks ago

12 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 12 Weeks ago

Demand Management Levels and Series A-3


13 Week Lag Absolute Absolute Deviation of 13 Week Lagged Forecast
Dev
(abs(13 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History))

13 Week Lag Absolute Absolute Pct Error of 13 Week Lagged Forecast


Pct Err
(abs(13 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History)/ Adjusted History)

13 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 13 Weeks ago

13 Week Lag Pct Err Pct Error of 13 Week Lagged Forecast

((13 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History)/Adjusted History)

2 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 2 Weeks ago

3 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 3 Weeks ago

4 Week Lag Absolute Absolute Deviation of 4 Week Lagged Forecast


Dev
(abs(4 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History))

4 Week Lag Absolute Absolute Pct Error of 4 Week Lagged Forecast


Pct Err
(abs(4 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History)/ Adjusted History)

4 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 4 Weeks ago

4 Week Lag Pct Err Pct Error of 4 Week Lagged Forecast

((4 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History)/Adjusted History)

5 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 5 Weeks ago

6 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 6 Weeks ago

7 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 7 Weeks ago

8 Week Lag Absolute Absolute Deviation of 8 Week Lagged Forecast


Dev
(abs(8 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History))

8 Week Lag Absolute Absolute Pct Error of 8 Week Lagged Forecast


Pct Err
(abs(8 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History)/ Adjusted History)

A-4 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide


8 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 8 Weeks ago

8 Week Lag Pct Err Pct Error of 8 Week Lagged Forecast

((8 Week Lag Forecast - Adjusted History)/Adjusted History)

9 Week Lag Forecast Forecast as of 9 Weeks ago

Abs % Error Absolute % Error for Fit Forecast

Abs Deviation Absolute Deviation for Fit Forecast

Adjusted History Final History data including adjustments

Base Override Manual Override on Sales Forecast

Baseline Forecast Analytical Sales Forecast Including User Simulations

Booking - Req Qty - Booking History - Requested Quantity - Requested Date


Req Date

Booking - Book Qty - Booking History - Booked Quantity - Booked Date


Book Date

Booking - Book Qty - Booking History - Booked Quantity - Requested Date


Req Date

Booking - Req Qty - Booking History - Requested Quantity - Booked Date


Book Date

Demand Class Demand Class Destination Key


Destination Key

Demand Priority Demand Priority

EBSPRICELIST0 to Price lists


EBSPRICELIST129

Final Approval Final Approved if Checked

Final Approved By User who finally approved the forecast

Final Forecast Final Forecast

Demand Management Levels and Series A-5


History Historical Actual Sales/Shipment

History Override Historical Manual Override on Sales

Item Destination Key Item Destination Key

Mean Absolute Pct Err Mean Absolute Pct Err

Organization Organization Destination Key


Destination Key

Pct Bias Pct Bias

Relative Err Relative Err

Return History Returns History

Return History Site Returns History Site Source Key


Source Key

Root Mean Squared Root Mean Squared Err


Err

Sales Channel Sales Channel Destination Key


Destination Key

Shipping - Req Qty - Shipping History - Requested Quantity - Requested Date


Req Date

Shipping - Ship Qty - Shipping History - Shipped Quantity - Requested Date


Req Date

Shipping - Ship Qty- Shipping History - Shipped Quantity - Shipped Date


Ship Date

Simulation Analytical Re-Forecast Triggered by a User Simulation

Site Destination Key Site Destination Key

A-6 Oracle Demantra Demand Management User Guide



Index

Detail Demand Analysis embedded


A worksheet, 3-10
Demand Analyst, 2-3
Absolute Deviation view, 3-4
Demand Forecast workflow, 4-1, 4-5, 4-5
approval workflows, 4-5, 4-11
Demand Management
approving forecasts, 3-11
configuring, 4-1
Archive Forecast workflow, 4-1, 4-5
description, 1-1
overview, 2-1
B
process overview, 1-1
base time unit Demand Management administrator, 2-2
configuring, 4-12 demand management process, 2-1
Business Modeler, 4-1, 4-3, 4-18 demand priority, 2-2, 3-11
Demand Tracking graph, 3-10
C Demand Tracking table, 3-9
Collaborator Workbench, 2-3, 3-1, 4-16 Detail Demand Analysis Embedded Worksheet,
collecting and downloading data, 2-2 3-10
configuration steps, 4-1
configuring E
approval workflows, 4-5, 4-11 EBS Input series group, 3-13
base time unit, 4-12 Eight week lag forecast, 3-4
item short name, 4-16 EP_Load process, 4-2
configuring Demand Management, 4-1 EP_LOAD process, 4-17
configuring users, 4-2
controlling maximum sales dates, 4-17 F
filtering user data, 4-2
D
Final Approval series, 4-5
Demand Administrator, 2-3 Final Approve By series, 4-5
Demand Analysis group, 4-5 Forecast Accuracy series group, 3-7, 3-13
Demand Analysis worksheet, 2-3, 3-2, 3-8 forecast and metrics view, 3-4
business data, 3-12 Forecast Percentage Error view, 3-5
Demand Tracking graph, 3-10 forecasts, 3-4
Demand Tracking table, 3-9 approving, 3-11

Index-1
generating, 2-2 security, 4-1
managing and approving, 2-3 sending notifications, 2-2
uploading, 2-4 series, 3-7, A-3
Forecast series group, 3-13 system parameters, 4-18
Four week lag forecast, 3-4
T
G time bucket start day, 4-12
generating forecasts, 2-2 time resolution, 4-1
Twelve week lag forecast, 3-4
H
Historical Demand series group, 3-8, 3-13 U
uploading forecasts, 2-4
I user configuration, 4-2
user groups, 4-1
integration profiles, 4-17
users, 4-1
item description, 4-16
item short name, 4-16
W
L Waterfall Analysis worksheet, 2-3, 3-3
Absolute Deviation view, 3-4
levels, A-1
business data, 3-7
LOB. See multiple lines of business, 2-4
Forecast and Metrics view, 3-4
Forecast Percentage Error view, 3-5
M
Waterfall Analysis workshset, 3-2
maximum sales dates, 4-17 Workflow Manager, 4-7
MaxSalesGen parameter, 4-2, 4-18 workflows, 4-11
modifying sales override values, 3-10 Archive Forecast, 4-1
multiple lines of business, 2-4 configuring, 4-5
Demand Forecast, 4-1
O Planning Group, 4-1
Oracle Advanced Planning Suite, 2-2 worksheets, 3-1
Oracle Collaborative Planning, 2-2 Demand Analysis, 2-3, 3-8
Oracle Demantra Demand Management. See Waterfall Analysis, 2-3, 3-3
Demand Management, 1-1
Oracle Global Order Promising, 2-2
Oracle Inventory Optimization, 2-2
overview of Demand Management, 2-1
overview of the configuration process, 4-1

P
Planning Group workflow, 4-1, 4-5, 4-7
process, demand management, 2-1

S
Sales series group, 3-8, 3-13

Index-2