92% of sales are "automotive".

Price
8% of sales are "services and other". Shares
MC
Gigafactory? Cash
Model 3? Debt
Model X = SUV? EV
Autonomous driving?

Model S
Roadster
208.00
127
26,446
1,191
2,620
27,875
Main
$ in million Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 2012 2013
Industry Revenue 125,488 130,005 132,156 173,215 0 402,589 635,340
Ford Auto Revenue 31,800 35,105 35,818 35,818 126,567 139,369
Toyota Revenue 59,324 58,230 59,198 59,198 214,099
GM Revenue 34,364 36,670 37,140 37,140 150,295 152,092
DCX Revenue 41,059 125,727 129,780
 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
656,687 662,665
135,782 138,541
226,954 235,951
151,092 145,314
142,859 142,859
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Main
IS Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214
WW Auto Production/Deliveries
US Auto Production/Deliveries
Ford US Deliveries
Ford ASP
Ford NA Revenue
Ford WW Revenue

Autopilot
Production
Deliveries

Automotive 610,851 588,871 727,829

Services 4,368 31,671 41,520
Revenue 615,219 620,542 769,349
Automotive COGS 453,578 436,254 519,811
Services COGS 5,051 29,160 36,543
Total COGS 458,629 465,414 556,354
Gross Profit 156,590 155,128 212,995
R&D 68,454 81,544 107,717
SG&A 101,489 117,551 134,031
Operating Expenses 169,943 199,095 241,748
Operating Income -13,353 -43,967 -28,753
Interest Income -1,553 -5,024 -31,997
Pretax Income -14,906 -48,991 -60,750
Taxes 1,358 809 1,150
Net Income -16,264 -49,800 -61,900
EPS -0.13 -0.40 -0.50
Shares 122,802 123,473 124,250

ASP

Automotive Growth
Revenue Growth
Gross Margin 25% 25% 28%

Net Cash 481,328 333,135

Cash 2,591,170 2,693,871

A/R 72,380 96,607
Inventory 450,730 596,927
Prepaids 48,869 61,536
Operating Lease Vehicles 451,729 531,226
PP&E 849,389 1,035,822
Other 36,143 38,474
Assets 4,500,410 5,054,463

A/P 375,778 443,548

Accrued Liabilities 128,674 161,437
D/R 323,557 374,416
Capital Lease 20,969 23,799
Resale Guarantee 290,617 345,192
Deposits 198,006 228,017
Debt 2,109,842 2,360,736
OLTL 70,969 98,902
Liabilities 3,518,412 4,036,047
SE 981,998 1,018,416
L+SE 4,500,410 5,054,463

DSO 8 10

Model NI -49,800 -61,900

Reported NI -49,800 -61,902
D&A 44,268 54,715
SBC 37,038 35,784
Amort on Convert 8,493 23,609
Inventory Write Down 1,578 2,272
Fixed Asset Disposal 0 6,305
Other Non-Cash Operating Activities 2,562 1,100
FX Loss -807 597
A/R -23,800 -24,131
Inventories -197,734 -260,398
Prepaid Expenses -11,427 -12,780
Other Assets 149 -606
A/P 97,757 87,954
D/R 50,282 50,977
Customer Deposits 35,026 29,920
Resale Value Guarantee 54,318 54,914
OLTL 12,738 8,090
CFFO 60,641 -3,580

Capital Expenditures -141,364 -175,685

Increase in Restricted Cash 1,295 321
Acquisition 0 0
Purchases of ST -189,111 177,974
CFFI -329,180 2,610

Collateralized Lease Borrowing 0 0

Stock Offering 0 0
Convertible & Debt Offering 2,000,000 300,000
Options Exercise 35,726 17,389
Capital Lease Principal Payments -2,545 -3,101
Common Stock/Debt Issuance -30,302 -4,848
Warrant Issuance 338,400 50,760
Convertible Note Hedges -524,720 -78,708
CFFF 1,816,559 281,492
ForEx 0 479
Reported CIC 1,548,020 281,001

FCF -80,723 -179,265

CIC -148,193

Model S Deliveries (Cumulative)

Model S Deliveries
 Q314 Q414 Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316

641,814
36,927
23,700,000
32,779,000 35,818,000

40,000
11,160 12,807 13,091 16,000 21,000 26,000 31,000
10,045 11,532 11,603 18,000

799,915 956,661 893,320 878,090 852,555 1,042,004 1,367,631 1,693,257 2,018,884

51,889 0 46,560 76,886 84,234 88,446 92,868 97,511 102,387
851,804 956,661 939,880 954,976 936,789 1,130,450 1,460,499 1,790,769 2,121,271
552,987 694,964 631,745 666,386 628,729
46,966 0 48,062 75,220 76,564
599,953 694,964 679,807 741,606 705,293 847,838 1,095,374 1,343,076 1,590,953
251,851 261,697 260,073 213,370 231,496 282,613 365,125 447,692 530,318
135,873 139,565 167,154 181,712 178,791 140,961 168,826 183,529 180,579
155,107 196,970 195,365 201,846 236,367 198,940 197,319 203,864 238,731
290,980 336,535 362,519 383,558 415,158 339,900 366,144 387,394 419,310
-39,129 -74,838 -102,446 -170,188 -183,662 -57,288 -1,019 60,299 111,008
-31,852 -29,072 -48,695 -10,872 -44,412 -44,412 -44,412 -44,412 -44,412
-70,981 -103,910 -151,141 -181,060 -228,074 -101,700 -45,431 15,887 66,596
3,727 3,719 3,040 3,167 1,784 0 0 0 0
-74,708 -107,629 -154,181 -184,227 -229,858 -101,700 -45,431 15,887 66,596
-0.60 -0.86 -1.22 -1.45 -1.78 -0.79 -0.35 0.12 0.52
124,911 125,497 125,947 126,689 129,006 129,006 129,006 129,006 129,006

80,047 68,563 65,125 65,125 65,125 65,125 65,125

57% 52% 21% 7% 9% 53% 93% 137%

55% 51% 24% 10% 18% 55% 88% 126%
30% 27% 28% 22% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

12,895 -473,050 -964,767 -1,429,213 -1,659,071 -1,760,771 -1,806,202 -1,790,316 -1,723,720

2,397,156 1,935,034 1,544,615 1,191,038 1,477,614

156,889 226,604 200,052 138,648 119,964
752,492 953,675 1,054,840 1,212,279 1,293,717
65,467 94,718 135,756 106,430 133,855
617,743 766,744 912,061 1,120,246 1,360,725
1,404,326 1,829,267 2,224,191 2,646,017 3,103,811
43,460 43,209 48,515 53,527 57,811
5,437,533 5,849,251 6,120,030 6,468,185 7,547,497

649,362 777,946 732,331 771,637 824,861

194,571 268,884 353,768 345,401 373,859
415,891 483,922 539,324 623,155 710,378
 22,398 21,799 20,887 17,367 28,033
397,742 487,879 606,221 793,177 1,038,309
227,056 257,587 249,476 272,848 269,545
2,384,261 2,408,084 2,509,382 2,620,251 2,605,170
125,997 173,244 228,367 258,142 336,505
4,417,278 4,879,345 5,239,756 5,701,978 6,186,660
1,020,255 969,906 880,274 766,207 1,360,837
5,437,533 5,849,251 6,120,030 6,468,185 7,547,497

15 22 19 13 10

-74,708 -107,629 -154,181 -184,227 -229,858

-74,709 -107,629 -154,181 -184,227 -229,858
64,972 67,976 77,112 91,389 110,366
39,158 44,516 43,026 43,301 56,032
23,532 14,100 17,941 15,771 17,664
10,645 1,114 5,901 10,049 7,353
4,747 3,126 2,753 2,238 3,809
841 2,968 2,862 3,220 4,929
-2,497 816 27,977 -11,206 18,812
-61,241 -74,486 2,175 60,657 15,541
-214,531 -377,601 -307,209 -399,011 -385,162
-5,310 -31,120 -43,475 40,090 -32,577
-5,214 1,178 -6,055 -2,300 -5,942
68,184 160,961 47,493 13,768 27,977
41,235 67,187 50,729 66,083 69,443
6,197 35,087 -3,012 22,585 741
52,550 87,710 62,712 80,504 106,332
23,445 17,695 41,457 -12,427 11,200
-27,996 -86,402 -131,794 -159,516 -203,340

-284,175 -368,661 -426,060 -405,165 -392,403

-1,905 -3,560 -6,284 -5,412 -11,687
0 0 0 -12,260 0
-5,563 -10 0 0 0
-291,643 -372,231 -432,344 -422,837 -404,090

0 0 77,961 118,574 163,416

0 0 0 0 750,000
0 0 77,661 90,585 15,726
36,810 10,530 35,218 23,653 35,155
-3,056 794 -3,726 -10,175 -59,005
0 0 -958 -4,286 -11,314
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
33,754 11,324 186,156 218,351 893,978
-18,290 -17,714 -17,655 4,599 -11,185
-304,175 -465,023 -395,637 -359,403 275,363

-312,171 -455,063 -557,854 -564,681 -595,743

-320,240 -485,945 -491,717 -464,446 -229,858
 Q416 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2,567,256

94,800,000
143,272,000

36,000 0 53,058 114,000 171,000

2,344,510 385,699 1,997,786 3,073,276 3,455,417 7,424,282 10,579,601

107,506 27,557 15,710 125,080 296,126 400,273 440,300
2,452,016 413,256 2,013,496 3,198,356 3,751,543 7,824,554 11,019,901
371,658 1,543,878 2,204,016 1,926,860 0
11,531 13,356 112,669 199,846 0
1,839,012 383,189 1,557,234 2,316,685 2,974,544 5,868,416
613,004 30,067 456,262 881,671 776,999 1,956,139 2,865,174
142,370 273,978 231,976 464,699 668,618 675,304 682,057
200,929 150,372 285,569 603,659 832,518 840,843 1,009,011
343,299 424,350 517,545 1,068,358 1,501,135 1,516,147 1,691,068
269,705 -394,283 -61,283 -186,687 -724,136 439,992 1,174,106
-44,412 -1,794 -10,143 -97,945 -148,391 -177,648 0
225,293 -396,077 -71,426 -284,632 -872,527 262,344 1,174,106
0 136 2,588 9,405 7,991 0 0
225,293 -396,213 -74,014 -294,037 -880,518 262,344 1,174,106
1.75 -3.69 -0.62 -2.37 -6.90 2.03 9.10
129,006 107,349 119,421 123,859 127,662 129,006 129,006

65,125 65,125 65,125 61,869

125% 418% 54% 12% 115% 43%

117% 387% 59% 17% 109% 41%
25% 7% 23% 28% 21% 25% 26%

-1,498,427 -1,498,427 -324,321

56,768
 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

256,500 384,750 423,225 465,548 512,102 563,312 619,644

15,075,932 21,483,203 22,449,947 23,460,194 24,515,903 25,619,119 26,771,979

484,330 532,763 586,039 644,643 709,107 780,018 858,020
15,560,262 22,015,966 23,035,986 24,104,838 25,225,011 26,399,137 27,629,999

4,045,668 5,944,311 6,219,716 6,749,355 7,063,003 7,655,750 8,012,700

688,877 695,766 702,724 709,751 716,849 724,017 731,257
1,210,814 1,452,976 1,467,506 1,482,181 1,497,003 1,511,973 1,527,093
1,899,691 2,148,743 2,170,230 2,191,932 2,213,852 2,235,990 2,258,350
2,145,977 3,795,568 4,049,486 4,557,422 4,849,151 5,419,759 5,754,350
0 0 0 231,159 338,902 455,634 587,830
2,145,977 3,795,568 4,049,486 4,788,581 5,188,054 5,875,393 6,342,180
136 948,892 1,012,372 1,197,145 1,297,013 1,468,848 1,585,545
2,145,841 2,846,676 3,037,115 3,591,436 3,891,040 4,406,545 4,756,635 4,709,068
16.63 22.07 23.54 27.84 30.16 34.16 36.87
129,006 129,006 129,006 129,006 129,006 129,006 129,006

58,776 55,837 53,045 50,393 47,873 45,479 43,205

43% 43% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
41% 41% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
26% 27% 27% 28% 28% 29% 29%

1,821,520 4,668,196 7,705,310 11,296,746 15,187,787 19,594,331 24,350,966

 2026 2027

4,661,978 4,615,358 4,569,204 4,523,512 4,478,277 4,433,494 4,389,159 4,345,268 4,301,815

ROIC 3%
Maturity -1%
Discount 11.5%
NPV 26,353,524
Share 207.28
Difference 0%
4,258,797 4,216,209 4,174,047 4,132,306 4,090,983 4,050,074 4,009,573 3,969,477 3,929,782 3,890,484
3,851,580 3,813,064 3,774,933 3,737,184 3,699,812 3,662,814 3,626,186 3,589,924 3,554,025 3,518,484
3,483,300 3,448,467 3,413,982 3,379,842 3,346,044 3,312,583 3,279,457 3,246,663 3,214,196 3,182,054
3,150,234 3,118,731 3,087,544 3,056,669 3,026,102 2,995,841 2,965,882 2,936,224 2,906,861 2,877,793
2,849,015 2,820,525 2,792,319 2,764,396 2,736,752 2,709,385 2,682,291 2,655,468 2,628,913 2,602,624
2,576,598 2,550,832 2,525,324
Main
Name Model S
4-dour, 5-passenger premium sedan
Release 6/2012 -- 2nd vehicle after the Roadster