El model SLEUTH.

Un Automatisme Cellular
aplicat al creixement urb.
Conceptes Bsics

Robert Colombo
June 6th , 2005
What is all about?

Sleuth is a Cellular automata model based on Monte

Carlo methods (random values), that uses Brute Force
calibration methods to derive a set of coefficients to
predict future states based on known situations as
reference.

Cellular automata are mathematical models for complex

natural systems containing large numbers of simple
identical components with local interactions (Wolfram,
1984).

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What Does SLEUTH mean?

SLEUTH is the acronym for

Slope, (Pendent)
Land use, (s del sol)
Exclusion, (Exclusio)
Urban extent, (Extensio urbana)
Transportation, (Transportation)
Hill shade, ( Sombrejat)

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Who created the Model?

The model was created in 1992 from an early research work of Dr

Clarke (University of California, Santa Barbara, Department of
Geography) while visiting USGS as a research scientist

SLEUTH is written in C+ language and uses standard gnu libraries.

The model works under UNIX systems

The model has been applied in Cities around the world but basically
in USA. Organizations such as NASA use this software for their
predictions

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 A CA system usually consists of four basic elements:
Cells.
Set of states (occuppied/free, on/off,).
Neighborhoods defined by cells .
Rules.
Time periods.

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 Cells are the smallest units which must manifest some
adjacency or proximity .

Cells can be Pixels from Raster images.

The cell state is updated considering the close

environmental situations and states, not only a particular
theoretical rule (Automata).

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 The state of a cell can change according to transition
rules which are defined in terms of neighborhood
functions (Xia &Gar 1998 ).

This transition between one pixel state to another takes

place in discrete time steps according to fixed rules
(Wolfram 1986).

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 Neighborhoods can be configured in several ways :

agglomerations of adjacent distance-defined cells

clusters of cells
Von Neumann (5 cell)

5 x 5 Moore

3 x 3 Moore

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 Each time step in a model could be called Cycle or
Iteration or Generation.

A simulation is just a sum of Cycles that determine a

simulation for a specific time period.

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The SLEUTH model

SLEUTH is composed of 2 modules

Urban Growth Model:

prediction on how an urban area will grow
(extension and development)
prediction of the land cover change

Land Use Deltaron The LCD:

land use/cover transition model (Alive/dead
cells)

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 Every Growing Cycle in SLEUTH is based in :

Rules: they will allow the model to develop following

certain patterns, using the assigned coefficients.

Coefficient: set by the user every time but acquired

using statistical methods, represent the metrics of a
concrete behaviour (probaility, frequency,)

Ifthe results of this performance reach the Critical

high or Critical low values (selected by the user), the
self modification procedure will be applied to make
the growing model more real, adapted to a reality not
always linear.

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 Growing Cycle in SLEUTH

Initial conditions Computing Work

COEFFICIENTS IMAGES (GIF)

Diffusion (User defined Start-Step-Stop)
N Growing
Breed (User defined Start-Step-Stop)
cycles
Spread (User defined Start-Step-Stop) Slope
Slope (User defined Start-Step-Stop) Land Use (optional)
Road Gravity (User defined Start-Step-Stop) Excluded land Completed
Seed + +
+ Road gravity sensitivity (Definition optional) Urban Extent =
Number (1,..) simulation
Slope sensitivity (Definition optional) Transportation network
Critical Low (Definition optional) Hill shade
Critical High (Definition optional)
Critical Slope (Definition optional)
Boom (Definition optional)
Bust (Definition optional)

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 Growth Rules:
A set of decisions, or growth, rules applied to the data
to simulate urban driven land cover change.
The Exclude land and Slope input layers limit the
areas suitable for urbanization

The UGM model works with 4 basic growth dynamics

Spontaneous Growth
New Spreading Centers
Edge Growth
Road-Influenced Growth

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 Spontaneous Growth:

Defines the occurrence of random urbanization of

land. Any cell from the un-urbanized category has a
certain probability of becoming urban.

Existent Urban cells

Spontaneous Growth cell

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 New Spreading Center Growth:

Determines if a new urban center born from a

spontaneously growth, can become a center for
future urban spreading center (determined by the
Breed coefficient)

Existent Urban cells

New spreading center cell

Newly urbanized cells from a

new spreading center cell

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 Edge Growth:
if there is a urban cell that has at least three free
neighbor ready to urbanize cells, it has a probability
(controlled by the Spread coefficient and the slope
coefficient) to become urban.

Non urbanized cells (no edge

growing procedure)

(t+1)

Urbanized cells. Edge Urban cells product of Edge

growing centers Growing

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 Road-Influenced Growth:
If a road is found in a radius (road gravity coeff) of
a new urbanized cell (Breed coef), a temporary
urbanized cell is placed in the point where the road
network is close to the urban cell.
This temporary cell randomly moves across the
urban network (moves defined by Dispersion
coeff). The final location of this new urban cell then
acts as a new urban spreading center. Possible in
more than one cell at the time

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 Self modification rules:
The coefficient values in a simulation do not have to
remain static. Due to rapid or to low growth rates
the coefficients may be increased or decreased by
the system.
The limits Critical high and Critical Low have
effect in three of the growth control parameters:
dispersion, breed, and spread, increasing or
decreasing the values.

Quoted from Project Gigalopolis Website

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 Coefficient:

Affect how the growth rules are applied. These values

are calibrated by comparing simulated land cover
change to a study area's historical data. (reference
input images).

Dispersion
Breed

Spread

Slope resistance

Road gravity

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 Dispersion coefficient:

In spontaneous growth type, controls the number

of times a pixel will be randomly selected for
possible urbanization.

Possibly influenced by Road weighting, controls

how many "steps", or pixels, make up a random
walk along the transportation network on a road trip.

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 Breed coefficient:

In New spreading center growth type: determines

the probability of a spontaneous growth pixel
becoming a new spreading center.

In Road influenced growth the breed coefficient

determines the number of times a road trip will be
taken.

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 Spread coefficient:

In Edge growth type: determines the probability

that any pixel that is part of a spreading center (a
cluster of urban pixels > 2 in 3x3 neighborhood) will
generate an additional urban pixel in its
neighborhood.

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 Slope coefficient:

Building in lower slopes is easier than in higher

slopes. The Critical Slope coefficient shows where
building its impossible. The proportion of flatland
has a very big influence of the pressure to build in
upper slopes. The slope coefficient acts as a
multiplier. If the slope coefficient is high,
increasingly steeper slopes are less likely to
urbanize.

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 Road gravity coefficient:

In Road influenced growth type the maximum

search distance for a road from a pixel selected for
a road trip is determined as some proportion of the
image dimensions. (Project Gigalopolis USGS 2005

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 Coefficient Selection:

Subjectivity aspect in the SLEUTH results due to the

coefficient selection methods used.

The coefficient values are derived from the intensive

calibration process in which each coefficient is tested
individually

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 Coefficient Selection:

Example of UNIX terminal message while Example of statistical results obtained in SLEUTH in original format (txt file, and
computing Sleuth. treated in Office-like program. Brute force method means All possible
combination will be tried, even if they are non realistic
Lee Salee Weighted sum
Best Run Diffusion Breed Spread Slope Road Gravity Best Run Diffusion Breed Spread Slope Road Gravity
Corase 90 1 1 75 75 1 298 1 50 25 100 100
Fine 341 1 11 70 70 40 893 1 41 25 90 70
Final 550 1 22 61 66 64 1317 6 10 25 78 58
Different results obtained using 2 different Coefficient value selection

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 Coefficient Selection:
file name created in mode flag dependent
LOG_# T, C, P yes
avg.log T, C, P yes
coeff.log T, C, P yes
control_stats.log T, C no T=Test
restart_file.data# T, C, P no C=Calibration
std_dev.log T, C, P yes P=Prediction

List of available statistical output files available in Sleuth

Metrics available in the control_stats.log statistical files, used for coefficient selection and for image information.
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Model Inputs

Images:
The input images for SLEUTH need to follow some
requirements to be analyzed in the model:

Grey scale images (8 bit ranging from a pixel

value of 0 to 255 where 0 means no-data and
255 means data filled).
Same number of rows and columns and pixel
size for all images.
Named following certain rules.
Gif format.
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 The model needs to work at least 9 layers:
4 Urban extent layers (one for a different time period,
derived for classified satellite images).
1 Excluded land layers (locate the non urbanizable areas)
2 Transportation network layers (from two different years)
1 Slope layer (derived from a DEM),
1 Hill shade layer (Derived from a DEM),
Naming rules for GIF images and example for Project Atlanta
Urban data GIFs
format: <location>.urban.<date>.[<user info>].gif
Atlanta200.urban.1983.gif
Atlanta200.urban.1987.gif
Atlanta200.urban.1992.gif
Atlanta200.urban.1997.gif
Road data GIFs
format: <location>.roads.<date>.[<user info>].gif
Atlanta200.roads.1992.gif
Atlanta200.roads.1997.gif
Landuse data GIFs
format: <location>.landuse.<date>.[<user info>].gif
Atlanta200.landuse.1983.gif
Atlanta200.landuse.1997.gif
Excluded data GIF
format: <location>.excluded.[<user info>].gif
Atlanta200.excluded.gif
Slope data GIF
format: <location>.slope.[<user info>].gif
Atlanta200.slope.gif
Background data GIF
format: <location>.hillshade.[<user info>].gif 29
Atlanta200.hillshade.gif
*Atlanta 200: Input origin folder
 Input image Examples

b c d

e f

Three sets of urban layers 1983, 1987 1992 and 1997 100*100 b)200*200 c)400*400 all of them 30
reduced to the same size (not used in SLEUTH)
 Excluded Hillshade

Roads Slope

Input data layers used in the Atlanta metro area. The colors are exaggerated. Note the binary code. 31
 Excluded Hillshade

Roads Slope
Original Layers with original color codes.
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Model Application

Scenario Files:
The Scenario files are
regular text files that
contain a specific
commands, basically
coefficient ranges, image
layer paths, color legend
patterns, output image
file flags (numeric or
alphanumeric choosing
values), and all the basic
information for a SLEUTH
model .
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 SLEUTH simulation Scheme:

Model inputs
1 Test phase
Error

Correct

2 Calibration phase

Coarse Calibration

Fine Calibration

Final Calibration

Deriving Calibration

Prediction 3
phase
Error

Correct

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END
 Model Phases and modes:

Test:
The phase was created as a way to generate
a set of historical data simulations, for a single
coefficient set without requiring a Start or Stop
coefficients to be set. Its now use, as the
name shows to run simple simulations to test
the images

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 Model Phases and modes:

Calibration:
The user will have to set the coefficients and
refine the selection for them several times to
acquire finally some coefficient values valid for
prediction mode, using Brute force methods.

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 Model Phases and modes:

Calibration:
Coarse: the range of the coefficient values to
derive is set to the maximum values (0-100)
using large increments (typical steps of 25). The
resolution of the data is normally of the total
resolution .

Fine: The selection of the values comes from

the control_stats.log from the coarse
calibration output folder. The value range will be
narrowed. The data used will be of the total
resolution (the resolution is being incremented).
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 Model Phases and modes:

Calibration:
Final: using the best fit values from the
control_stats.log in the fine calibration, the
range of coefficients will be narrowed again.

Derive: with the coefficients obtained from the

final calibration another calibration process
will be run to obtain more robust coefficients
for prediction phase. The number of Monte
Carlo iteration for this calibration method is set
to 100 or greater.

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 Model Phases and modes:

Prediction:
This phase will lead to predict how an urban
area will grow with the coefficients derived
from the Calibration process. All the previous
phases are just processed to be able to get
the coefficient values for this final step

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 Model Phases and modes:
Coefficients obtained from calibrations for Project Atlanta
Test Coarse Fine Final Derive
Image Resolution 400 400 200 100 100
Seed 1 1 1 1 1
Monte Carlo Iterations 1 5 7 9 100
Diffusion Start 1 0 0 1 1
Diffusion Step 1 25 5 2 1
Diffusion Stop 1 100 25 10 1
Breed Start 1 0 25 1 1
Breed Step 1 25 10 5 1
Breed Stop 1 100 75 25 1
Spread Start 1 0 50 55 63
Spread Step 1 25 5 4 1
Spread Stop 1 100 75 70 63
Slope Resistance Start 1 0 25 55 55
Slope Resistance Step 1 25 15 4 1
Slope Resistance Stop 1 100 100 70 55
Road Gravity Start 1 0 25 25 40
Road Gravity Step 1 25 15 15 1
Road Gravity Stop 1 100 100 100 40
Time 0.5h 18h 25h 40h 0.25h

Example of coefficient result, time of computation and data used in every phase for the 1st
Colombo simulation of the Atlanta MA.

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 SLEUTH simulation Scheme:
Model inputs
Test phase
Error

Correct

Calibration phase

Coarse Calibration

Fine Calibration

Final Calibration

Deriving Calibration

Prediction
phase
Error

Correct

END 41
 Results:

Depending on the coefficient selection the results of

the simulation will vary. Also the method of coefficient
selection during the calibration process can derive on
false values

The model can help when trying to predict future

situations and scenarios not only related on land
consumption but taking care of human effects on
newly developed areas, (transportation, water
demand,)

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 Results:

The possible output available contains:

Graphic images
Growth type

Land use change

Urban Growth probability

Deltatron Aging image

Statistical files (derived from images)

file name created in mode flag dependent
LOG_# T, C, P yes
avg.log T, C, P yes
coeff.log T, C, P yes
control_stats.log T, C no
restart_file.data# T, C, P no
std_dev.log T, C, P yes

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 Results:

1998 2005 2010 2015 2020

1998 2005 2010 2015 2020

1998 2005 2010 2015 2020

Coefficients Used
Colombo Yand&Lo Samples Gif images resulting from the different SLEUTH simulations a) 1st
Diffusion 2 55 1 Colombo b) Samples, c) Yang&Lo coefficients
Bread 72 8 6 The images can be easily imported in a GIS software to analyze the
Spread 1 25 27 results
Slope 25 53 1 44
Road Grav 45 100 20
 Graphic Output:

Output image representing, prediction of urban growth in 2015 for Atlanta Metro. A succession 45
of images creating an animation is also available.
 New Urban pixels
1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

3rdColombo coef
600,000 1st Colombo coeff.
Samples coeff
Yang&Lo coeff
400,000

200,000

1st Colombo Yang&Lo Samples 2nd Colombo 3rd Colombo

Diffusion 2 55 1 1 6
Breed 72 8 6 46 10
Spread 1 25 27 69 25
Slope 25 53 1 9 70
Road
Gravity 45 100 20 88 58

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Questions and Future job to develop:

Is SLEUTH a valid model for European urban structures?

Is it valid for the Barcelona Metro Area? How does the

urban planning need to be referred in the model?

Can we predict real and complex scenarios (planning,

economic crisis, demographic explosion,)?

Can de model be suitable for Regressive urban areas?

What is the weight of Public transport in models?

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Questions and Future job to develop:

Are there other types of dynamic growth not represented in

the present model?

Can the coefficient selection method be improved?

Is this model useful for small urban areas.

What's the best resolution to use in the input layers.

Comparative analysis between SLEUTH and other CA

(Dinamica framework, DUEM,).
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References and further reading (selection):

Xiaojun Yang, (2000) Integrating image analysis and dynamic spatial modeling
with GIS in a rapidly suburbanizing environment, Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of
Georgia, 2000. Dir. C.P. Lo
Yang, X., and Lo, C.P. 2003. Modeling urban growth and landscape change in
the Atlanta metropolitan area. International Journal of Geographical Information
Science 17:463488.
Torrens, P M & O'Sullivan, D, 2001, "Cellular automata and urban simulation:
where do we go from here?", Environment and Planning B 28 163-168
Dietzel, Ch. and Clarke K. (2004)Determination of Optimal Calibration Metrics
through the use of Self-Organizing Maps. Presentation for the Integrated
assessment of the land system: The future of land useInstitute for Environmental
Studies, Amsterdam October 30th, 2004
Clarke K. and Dietze Ch.l (2005)A Decade of SLEUTHing: Lessons Learned
from Applications of a Cellular Automaton Land Use Change Model, Department of
Geography, University of California,Santa Barbara, USA
Benenson, I. & Torrens, P.M. (2004). "Geosimulation: object-based modeling of
urban phenomena". Ed Wiley. 49
Web sites:
http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/project_gig.htm
http://www.mirwoj.opus.chelm.pl/ca/ca_links.html
www.geosimulation.com
www.sprawlsim.org

Gracies!!
Robert.colombo@upc.edu

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