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Solution to Ordinary and Universal Kriging Equations

Meredith Franklin

February 6, 2014

1 Lagrange Multipliers
Lagrange multipliers are used for finding the maxima/minima of multivariate func-
tions that are subject to a constraint. The function f (x1 , x2 , ..., xn ) and constraint
g(x1 , x2 , ..., xn ) = 0 are continuous, have continuous first partial derivatives and Og 6= 0.
The two functions meet where their tangent lines are parallel. This is equivalent to say-
ing that f and g meet when their gradients are parallel (since the gradient of a function
is perpendicular to the function). Thus, Of = Og, where the constant is called
the Lagrange multiplier. The extremum is found by solving the n+1 gradient equations
(extremum are when all partials are set equal to 0). For example:

f (x, y) = x2 + y 2 and g(x, y) = x2 y 16 = 0


Minimize L(x, y, ) = x2 + y 2 + (x2 y 16)

L
0= = 2x + 2xy (1)
x
L
0= = 2y + x2 (2)
y
L
0= = x2 y 16 (3)

Equation (1) gives 2x(1 + y) = 0 which requires x = 0 or y = 1/. Equation (2) gives
x2 = 2y/. When plugged back into the constraint equation, we find = 2. Thus the
minima under the constraint g = 0 occurs when y = 1/2 and x = 1/ 2.

2 Ordinary Kriging Equations


Given spatial data Z(si ) that follows an intrinsically stationary process, i.e. having
constant unknown mean , known spatial covariance function C(h) for spatial lags h =
si sj , and can be written as Z(si ) = + (si ), we typically want to predict values of the

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process at unobserved locations, s0 D. Kriging is a method that enables prediction
of a spatial process based on a weighted average of the observations. In the case of
an intrinsically stationary process with constant unknown mean, we use the ordinary
kriging (OK) method.
N
X
Z(s0 ) = i Z(si ) (4)
i=1

We want to find the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) by minimizing the variance
of the interpolation error (i.e. minimize mean square prediction error), V ar(Z(s0 )
Z(s0 )) = E[(Z(s0 )Z(s0 ))2 ]. For the predictor to be unbiased, E[Z(s0 )] = E[Z(s0 )] =
is required. Given (4) this means:

N
X
E[Z(s0 )] E[Z(s0 )] = E[ i Z(si )] E[Z(s0 )]
i=1
N
X
= i E[Z(si )] E[Z(s0 )]
i=1
XN
= i
i=1
XN
= ( i 1)
i=1

Thus N
P
i=1 i = 1 for unbiasedness to hold and we have a minimization problem with a
constraint that can be solved using Lagrange multipliers. We minimize

XN
2
L(i , ) = E[(Z(s0 ) Z(s0 )) ] + 2( i 1)
i=1
N
X XN XN
= V ar[ i Z(si )] + V ar[Z(s0 )] 2Cov[ i Z(si ), Z(s0 )] + 2( i 1)
i=1 i=1 i=1
N X
X N N
X XN
= i j Cov[Z(si ), Z(sj )] + V ar[Z(s0 )] 2 i Cov[Z(si ), Z(s0 )] + 2( i 1)
i=1 j=1 i=1 i=1

N
P N P
P N
Recall the variance of a linear combination V ar[ i Z(si )] is i j Cov[Z(si ), Z(sj )]
i=1 i=1 j=1
Differentiate with respect to i and and set equal to 0
N
L(i , ) X
= 2 j Cov[Z(si ), Z(sj )] 2Cov[Z(si ), Z(s0 )] + 2 = 0
i
j=1

2
Which gives:
N
X
j Cov[Z(si ), Z(sj )] + = Cov[Z(si ), Z(s0 )]
j=1

And
N
L(i , ) X
= 2 i 2 = 0

i=1

Which gives:
N
X
i = 1
i=1

In matrix notation, this can be written as


Cw = D
Where C is the covariance matrix of the observed values and the row and column for the
constraint, w is the vector of weights and the Lagrange multiplier, and D is the vector
of covariances at the prediction location. Solving for the weights,
w = C 1 D
1
1 C11 C12 ... C1N 1 C10

2 C21 C22
... C2N 1
C20



.. .. .. .. .. ..
= .


. . ... . . .



N CN 1 CN 2 . . . CN N 1 CN 0
1 1 ... 1 0 1
We see that C only needs to be calculated (and inverted) once but D is found for every
prediction location. The inversion operation can be quite computationally intensive
for large N. With the weights we can solve for expected value at the new location
N
P
Z(s0 ) = i Z(si ).
i=1
The variance of the prediction is found via the MSE:
N X
X N XN
M SE = i j Cov[Z(si ), Z(sj )] + V ar[Z(s0 )] 2Cov[ i Z(si ), Z(s0 )]
i=1 j=1 i=1

Where
N X
X N N
X N
X
i j Cov[Z(si ), Z(sj )] = i j Cov[Z(si ), Z(sj )]
i=1 j=1 i=1 j=1
N
X
= i (Cov[Z(si ), Z(s0 )] )
i=1

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So, the MSE gives us the ordinary kriging variance,
N
X
2 2
OK = i (Cov[Z(si ), Z(s0 )] )
i=1
Which in matrix form is
2
OK = 2 w0 D

3 Universal Kriging Equations


When we do not have a constant unknown mean in our spatial process, we must
expand the above approach to account for a variable mean (i.e. linear or polynomial
trend, spatially varying covariates) when making kriging predictions. For example we
can define a spatial regression model, Z(s) M V N (X, ) where under instrinsic
stationarity, is our spatial covariance function C(h) for spatial lags h = si sj .
X represent the k = 1, . . . , p covariates. Another way of expressing the model is
Z(si ) = (si ) + (si ) where
p
X
(si ) = k xk (si )
k=1
As above, we wish to find the BLUP, where we (4) becomes
N
X p
X
Z(s0 ) = i k xk (si )
i=1 k=1

XN p
X p
X
E[Z(s0 )] E[Z(s0 )] = E[ i k xk (si )] k xk (s0 )
i=1 k=1 k=1
N
X p
X p
X
= i E[k xk (si )] k xk (s0 )
i=1 k=1 k=1
We require
N
X
i = 1
i=1
N
X
i xk (si ) = xk (s0 ), k = 1, . . . , (p 1)
i=1

So there are p constraints in our minimization problem (sum of weights is equal to 1


and the p-1 covariates). We apply the same method as above with Lagrange multipliers
k . Minimize:
p
X XN
L(i , ) = E[(Z(s0 ) Z(s0 ))2 ] + 2 k ( i xk (si ) 1)
k=1 i=1

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As above, we obtain the result w = C 1 D which expands to:
1
1 C11 C12 ... C1N x11 ... x1p C10

2
C21 C22
... C2N x21 ... x2p

C20

..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

.
.
. . . . . .
.


N = CN 1 CN 2 . . . CN N xN 1 . . . xN p CN 0

1 x11 x12 . . . x1N 0 ... 0 x10

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
. . . . . . . . .
p xp1 xp2 . . . xpN 0 ... 0 xp0

And the universal kriging variance is represented by

U2 K = 2 w 0 D