2013

k =n
= ) E (X x k f (x k )
k =1

B
A
A B
B \A
A \B

Probability
~~0


.

.

.

~~1


2................................................................................
4.................................................................................

5....................................... :
-- -- 5.........................................
10................................................................
11................................................................
--12.................................................................:
13...............................................................................
-- -- 15...........................................
19.........................................................................
20..................................................
21...................................................................
30..........................................

: 33.................................................
34.................................................................
40................................................................
43...................................................
48................................................................

: 53..............................................
53...........................................................
57................................................

~~2
 59..................
:
59.........................................................................

64.......................................................
( 66.....................................
)

71..................................................................
75..................................................................
77......................................
79...............................................................
80. ...........................................
82..........................................................................
83............................................................................
)(88..........................................
91..................................................................

92...........................................................................

~~3

-------------------------------------------------
:
) (
15 ) ( 15 0 0
.



.
100
85 15
15 85
100 100
.

.

.
.
1, 2, 3, 4,5, 6 :
1
.
6

1

6

1

6

~~4
 :

:
) (



) (
:
(1
(2
(3
:

) (
:
)( .

:
) (

} = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6
n ( ) = 6

~~5


} = {1, 2,3, 4
n ( ) = 4

} = {H ,T
T )( H )(
n ( ) = 2

H T

}) = {(H , H ), (H ,T ), (T , H ), (T ,T
n ( ) = 4
H T :
H T
T
H

H T

H ) (H , H ) ( H ,T

T ) (T , H ) (T ,T

T H :


= {(T ,T ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T ) , (T , H ,T ) , (T ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T ) ,
}) ( H ,T , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H , H , H
H T n ( ) = 8
H T
H T

H T H T H T H T

~~6
 n ( ) = 36 :

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ) (1, 1 ) (1, 2 ) (1, 3 ) (1, 4 ) (1, 5 ) (1, 6
2 ) (2 ,1 ) (2 , 2 ) (2 , 3 ) (2 , 4 ) (2 , 5 ) (2 , 6
3 ) (3 , 1 ) (3 , 2 ) (3 , 3 ) (3 , 4 ) (3 , 5 ) (3 , 6
4 ) (4 ,1 ) (4 , 2 ) (4 , 3 ) (4 , 4 ) (4 , 5 ) (4 , 6
5 ) (5 , 1 ) (5 , 2 ) (5 , 3 ) (5 , 4 ) (5 , 5 ) (5 , 6
6 ) (6 ,1 ) (6 , 2 ) (6 , 3 ) (6 , 4 ) (6 , 5 ) (6 , 6
! 21 !
& ) ! $ *+ & $
/0 &$ $ 2 * $
n ( ) = 16 :
1 2 3 4
1 ) (1, 1 ) (1, 2 ) (1, 3 ) (1, 4
2 ) (2 ,1 ) (2 , 2 ) (2 , 3 ) (2 , 4
3 ) (3 , 1 ) (3 , 2 ) (3 , 3 ) (3 , 4
4 ) (4 ,1 ) (4 , 2 ) (4 , 3 ) (4 , 4

: n

r :

r r ....... r = r n
n
:
:
n ( ) = 25 = 32

:
n ( ) = 63 = 216

:
n ( ) = 46 = 4096

~~7
 :

: a , b , c , d

a b c d
a ) (a , a ) (a , b ) (a , c ) (a , d
b ) (b , a ) (b , b ) (b , c ) (b , d
c ) (c , a ) (c , b ) (c , c ) (c , d
d ) (d , a ) (d , b ) (d , c ) (d , d

(1 :

n ( ) = 16

(2 :

n ( ) = 12

(3

) ( :

n ( ) = 6

) (

}} = {{a, b } , {a, c } , {a, d } , {b , c } , {b , d } , {c , d :

~~8
 : ) ( 1, 2,3, 4

) ( 1,1, 2,3, 4 :

) ( ) ( .

n ( ) = 4 5 = 20 :

1 1 2 3 4
) 1 (1,1) (1,1) (1, 2 ) (1,3) (1, 4
) 2 ( 2,1) ( 2,1) ( 2, 2 ) ( 2,3) ( 2, 4
) 3 ( 3,1) ( 3,1) ( 3, 2 ) ( 3,3) ( 3, 4
) 4 ( 4,1) ( 4,1) ( 4, 2 ) ( 4,3) ( 4, 4

= {(1,1) , ( 2,1) , ( 3,1) , ( 4,1) , (1, 2 ) , ( 2, 2 ) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 4, 2 ) , (1,3) ,

})( 2,3) , ( 3,3) , ( 4,3) , (1, 4 ) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 4,3

)(1,1) , ( 2,1) , ( 3,1) , ( 4,1

~~9

a
a
b
c
d
a :
b b
c
a d } {a , b , c , d
a
c b :
c
d
a
b
d c :
d
a
b
a c
d n ( ) = 64
a
b b
c
b d
a
c b
c
d
a
b
d c
d n ( ) = 4 4 4 = 64

a
b
a c
d !
a
b b
c
) n ( a
c d

b
c c :
d
a
b
d c
d
a
b :
a c
d
a n ( ) = 4 4 4 = 64
b b
c
d d
a
c b
c
d
a
b
d c ~ ~ 10
d
 b
c
:
d
a c
b
d
b n ( ) = 24 ) (
d c
a
c
d

b
a 4
c
d
a 3
d c

b

a
2
d
a
c
n ( ) = 4 3 2 = 24
b d
a
d b
:
b
a c (1 :
a
d b c
a
c
b :

n1
n 2 n 3
k :
n () = n1 n 2 ...... n k ) (

: 1, 2,5, 6, 7

(1
(2
(1 :

3 4 3 = 36

(2

3 5 5 = 75

~ ~ 11
 (2 :
n
r ) n , r ( n r 1
n
n 1 .....
n r + 1 r

r n
)P (n , r ) = n (n 1)...........(n r + 1 :
r n

: r n n r r
n ) P ( n , r :

)P ( n , r ) = n ( n 1)...........( n r + 1

: 10 :
) (
:
3 10
P (10,3) = 10 9 8 = 720 720

(3 : E n n E
E n

P ( n , n ) = n ( n 1)...........2.1

n n ! = n ( n 1)...........2.1 :
n :
! pn = p ( n , n ) = n

: } E = {a , b , c 3! = 3 2 1 = 6 :
(a , b ) , c ) , ( a , c , b ) , (b , a , c ) , (b , c , a ) , ( c , a , b ) , ( c , b , a

~ ~ 12
 ) () (
) ( } E = {a , b , c , d

} } = {{a , b , c } , {a , b , d } , {a , c , d } , {b , c , d

n () = 4 } E = {a , b , c , d

(a , b ) , c ) , ( a , c , b ) , (b , a , c ) , (b , c , a ) , ( c , a , b ) , ( c , b , a
)P (4, 3
= ) n ( = 4 : } {a , b , c
!3
(4 :

r : r n ) ( 0 r n
n ) C ( n , r :
)n (n 1)...........(n r + 1 ) p (n, r
= ) C (n , r = ) C (n, r
!r !r

r n n r r

) C ( n , r
n
)n (n 1)...........(n r + 1
= ) C (n , r :
!r
!n
= ) C (n, r :
!) r !(n r

C ( n, r ) = 0
(1 r > n r
(2 r = 0
C ( n, 0 ) = 1

! n ( n 1) .....2 1 n
= ) C ( n, n = =1 (3
!n !n
!n
= ) C ( n, r (4
! ) r !( n r

) ( C ( n , n r ) = C ( n , r ) (5

(6 ) C ( n, m ) = C ( n, r m = r : m + r = n

~ ~ 13
 ) n ( :

)n (

21 = 2

22 = 4

23 = 8


2n
n
n
61 = 6

62 = 36

n
n
n
6


41 = 4

42 = 16

n
n
n
4


nr n r

) ( n, r ) = n ( n 1)( n 2 ) ... ( n r + 1 r n
) (1 r n
)n ( n 1)( n 2 ) ... ( n r + 1 r n
= ) C ( n, r
!r
) (0 r n

~ ~ 14


.... H B A
: A ) ( A

:
A } A = {1,3,5


5 1 3
: A

" "
) ( x x A A
x A A
A ) ( A

:
A } A = {1,3,5


1 3 5

:
A A

) P ( . A A P ( ) :
) ) P ( (
n ( ) = m ) P ( n ( P ( ) ) = 2m

: } = {a , b , c }P ( ) = {, {a} , {b } , {c } , {a, b } , {a , c } , {b , c } ,

:
:
.

:


:
7 .

~ ~ 15
 :
A
A B
B A B
A B . A B
:
A B
B
A A B . A B
A B
B \A
:
A \B
A A =A , A A =A :
A ( B C ) = ( A B ) ( A C ) :

) A ( B C ) = ( A B ) ( A C

:
A B
B A B . A \ B

A : A B A B = A A B = B

B \A B \A B A \B =
)(:
A A . A
:

A A = A A = A = \ A A = \ A ( A ) = A

A B = (A B ) , A B = ( A B ) , A \ B = A B :

) ( :
B A A B =

~ ~ 16

}n ( ) = 6 = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6

..... {3} {2} {1} :
) ( }{1, 2} , {3,5, 6
} {1,3,5} , {4, 2, 6

H T



= {(T ,T ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T ) , (T , H ,T ) , (T ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T ) ,
}) ( H ,T , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H , H , H
A

: B
: C

: D
A
A D , A D , A B D \ A A \ D
:
A = { (T ,T ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T ) , (T ,T , H })
B = {( H , H , H ) , (T ,T ,T })
C = {( H , H ,T ) , ( H ,T , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H , H , H })
D = {( H ,T ,T }) ) , (T , H ,T ) , (T ,T , H
A C = A , C


A A = { (T , H ,T ) , ( H , H ,T ) , ( H ,T , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H , H , H )} :

}) A \ D = {(T ,T ,T
}) D \ A = {(T , H ,T
}) A B = {(T ,T ,T

~ ~ 17
 A B = {( H , H , H ) , (T ,T ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T ) }) , (T ,T , H
}) A D = { ( H ,T ,T ) , (T , H ,T ) , (T ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T ) , ( H ,T , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H , H , H
= \ {(T ,T ,T })

(1
(2 :
: A
: B H
: C T 5 .
: D H 3
1
2 : E A B
1
: F A D
3

4
(3 .
T

:
2
H

1 (1
2
3 = ( (1,1) , (1, 2) , (1,3) , (1, 4 ) , ( 3,1)( 3, 2 ) , ( 3,3) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 5,1) ,
3

4 }) ( 5, 2) , ( 5,3) , ( 5, 4) ( 2, H ) , ( 2,T ) , ( 4, H ) , ( 4,T ) , ( 6, H ) , ( 6,T

(2
T
4
H }) A = {(1, 2 ) , (1, 4 ) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 5, 2 ) , ( 5, 4

}) B = {( 2, H ) , ( 4, H ) , ( 6, H
1
2 C = {( 2,T ) , ( 4,T })
5
}) D = {( 6, H ) , ( 4, H ) ,} (1, 4) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 5, 4
3

4
}) E = A B = {(1, 2 ) , (1, 4 ) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 5, 2 ) , ( 5, 4) , ( 2, H ) , ( 4, H ) , ( 6, H
T
6
H ~ ~ 18
 }) F = A D = {(1, 4 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 5, 4

(3 :
) A A) (B C ) ( C (B

) C F ) ( D F ) ( B E ) (C (C

P ( )
:
P : P ( ) [ 0,1] ::
P () = 1 (1

P ( A B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) :
(2 A B

) ( , P (S ) , P

A1 , A2 , A3 ,...., An
) P ( A1 A 2 A3 ..... A n ) = P ( A1 ) + P ( A 2 ) + .... + P ( A n

A1 , A2 , A3 ,...., An

:
: (
)
) P ( A1 ) + P ( A 2 ) + .... + P ( A n ) = P (

P ( A1 ) + P ( A 2 ) + .... + P ( A n ) = 1

C B A

A B B
C

P (C ) = x P ( B ) = 2x P ( A ) = 4x A , B , C

P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P (C ) = 1
4 2 1
= ) P (A = ) P ( B = x 4x + 2x + x = 1 ) = P (C
7 7 7

~ ~ 19

T
= {(T ,T ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T ) , (T , H ,T ) , (T ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T ) ,
}) ( H ,T , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H , H , H
} {3, 2,1, 0
...
1
n ( ) = 8 ) n (
1 3 3 1
= )P ( 3 = ) P ( 2 ) = P (1) = P ( 0
8 8 8 8
:

1 3 3 1
= )P ( 0 ) + P (1) + P ( 2 ) + P ( 3 + + + =1
8 8 8 8
) (

} = {a1 , a2 ,...., an

1
= ) P (A a n ( ) = m }{a
m
1 r
P (A ) = r = A r
m m
A

A

A
= ) P (A

A
= ) P (A

) n (A
= ) P (A =
)n (

~ ~ 20
 :

P ( ) = 0

A A = A

) P ( A ) = P ( A

) P ( A ) + P ( ) = P ( A P ( ) = 0

A A ) P ( A ) = 1 P ( A

A A A A =

) P ( A A ) = P (

P ( A ) + P ( A ) = 1 ) P ( A ) = 1 P ( A

) P (A ) P (B A B A B

A B \ A
B A B = (B \ A ) A
B \A
) P ( B ) = P ( B \ A ) + P ( A

P ( B \ A ) 0 ) P ( A ) P ( B

~ ~ 21


P ( A \ B ) = P ( A ) P ( A B ) B A

B A B A / B
B \A
A
A = (A \ B ) (A B )
A \B
A B
P ( A ) = P ( A \ B ) + P ( A B )

P ( A \ B ) = P ( A ) P ( A B )

B
A
B A
A \B P (A B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) P (A B )

B A \ B
A B = ( A \ B ) B

P ( A B ) = P ( A \ B ) + P ( B )

= P (A ) P (A B ) + P (B )

= P (A ) + P (B ) P (A B )

A B C

:
P ( A B C ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P (C ) P ( A B ) P ( B C ) P ( A C ) + P ( A B C )
:
P ( A B C )
= P ( A ( B C ))
= P (A ) + P ( B C ) P ( A ( B C ) )
= P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P (C ) P ( B C ) P ( ( A B ) ( A C ) )
= P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P (C ) P ( B C ) P ( A B ) + P ( A C ) P ( A B A C )
= P ( A ) + P ( B ) + P (C ) P ( B C ) P ( A B ) P ( A C ) + P ( A B C )

~ 22 ~


10 4
A B
) P ( B ) P ( A H
.

10
10 9
= ) C (10, 2 n ( ) = 45 = 45
2 1

43
= ) C ( 4, 2 n ( A) = 6 =6
2 1

8 7
= ) C ( 8, 2 n ( B ) = 28 = 28
2 1
) n (A 6 2
= ) P (A = =
)n ( 45 15
) n (B 28
= ) P (B =
)n ( 45

H
28 17
P (H ) = 1 P (B ) = 1 =
45 45

12 5

(1
(2
(3

~ ~ 23

12 11 10
= ) C (12,3 12 = 220
3 2 1
n ( ) = 220

(1 12 5 = 7

A
765
= ) C ( 7, 3 = 35
3 2 1
)C ( 7,3 35 7
= ) P (A = =
)C (12, 3 220 44

(2 B ) (


C ( 5,1) C ( 7, 2 ) = 5 21 = 105
105 21
= ) P (B =
220 44
(3 H ) ( :
H ) (

A H = A :
7
P (H ) = 1 P (A ) = 1
44
37
= ) P (H
44
:
)C ( 5,1) C ( 7, 2 ) + C ( 5, 2 ) C ( 7,1) + C ( 5,3
= ) P (H
455
105 + 70 + 10 185 37
= ) P (H = =
220 220 44

~ ~ 24
 80%
60% . 50%
:
( 1 .
( 2 .
( 3
.
( 4 ) P ( A B ) = 1 P ( B ) + P ( A B

: A B

:
5 6 8
= ) P (A B = ) P (B = ) P (A
10 10 10
A B ( 1
) P ( A B ) = P (A ) + P ( B ) P ( A B
8 6 5 9
= = +
10 10 10 10
( 2 A
2 1
= ) P ( A ) = 1 P ( A =
10 5
( 3 A B = B \ A
6 5 1
= ) P (A B = ) P ( B \ A ) = P (B ) P ( A B
10 10 10
) P ( A B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) P ( A B ) = P (A ) + 1 P (B ) P (A \ B (4
) ) = P ( A ) + 1 P (B ) ( P (A ) P ( A B
) P ( A B ) = 1 P (B ) + P (A B

A B
) P ( A B ) = 1 P (B ) + P (A B
6 5 9
= 1 + =
10 10 10

~ ~ 25
 : B A
1 5 1
P (A B ) = P (B ) = P (A ) =
4 8 2
:
P ( A B ) P ( A ) P ( B ) P ( B A ) P ( A B ) P ( ) P ( )

:
P ( A B ) = P (A ) + P ( B ) P ( A B )
4 5 2 7
P (A B ) = + =
8 8 8 8
P (A ) = 1 P (A )
1 1
P (A ) = 1 =
2 2
P (B ) = 1 P (B )
5 3
P (B ) = 1 =
8 8
P (B A ) = P (B \ A ) = P (B ) P (A B )
5 2 3
P (B A ) = =
8 8 8
P (A B ) = P (A \ B ) = P (A ) P (A B )
1 1 1
P (A B ) = =
2 4 4
P (A B ) = P (A B ) = 1 P (A B )
7 1
P (A B ) = 1 =
8 8
P ( A B ) = P ( A B ) = 1 P ( A B )

1 3
P (A B ) = 1 =
4 4
: B A
1 1 3
P (A B ) = P ( A ) = P ( A B ) =
6 3 4
P ( ) P ( A B ) P ( B ) P ( A ) :

:
P ( A ) = 1 P ( A )
1 2
P (A ) = 1 =
3 3
~ 26 ~
 ) P (A B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) P (A B
3 2 1
= + P (B )
4 3 6
1
= ) P ( B
4
) P ( A B ) = P (A \ B ) = P (A ) P (A B
2 1 1
= )P ( A B =
3 6 2

) P ( ) = P ( A B ) = 1 P ( A B
3 1
P ( ) = 1 =
4 4

) (.
:

: A
: B 7

A B , A B , B A , A B , A B :

:
}) = {(1,1) , (1, 2 ) ,....., (1, 6 ) , ( 2,1) ,...,....,.... ( 6,6

n ( ) = 62 = 36

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ) (1, 1 ) (1, 2 ) (1, 3 ) (1, 4 ) (1, 5 ) (1, 6
2 ) (2 ,1 ) (2 , 2 ) (2 , 3 ) (2 , 4 ) (2 , 5 ) (2 , 6
3 ) (3 , 1 ) (3 , 2 ) (3 , 3 ) (3 , 4 ) (3 , 5 ) (3 , 6
4 ) (4 ,1 ) (4 , 2 ) (4 , 3 ) (4 , 4 ) (4 , 5 ) (4 , 6
5 ) (5 , 1 ) (5 , 2 ) (5 , 3 ) (5 , 4 ) (5 , 5 ) (5 , 6
6 ) (6 , 1 ) (6 , 2 ) (6 , 3 ) (6 , 4 ) (6 , 5 ) (6 , 6
}) A = {( 2,1) , (1, 2 ) , (2,3), ( 3, 2 ) , ( 4, 2 ) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 5, 2 ) , ( 2,5) , ( 6, 6 ) , ( 2, 2
}) B = {(1,1)( 2,1) , ( 3,1) , ( 4,1) , ( 5,1) , (1, 2 ) , (1,3), (1, 4 ) , (1,5 ) , ( 2,3) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 4, 2 ) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3,3 ) , ( 2, 2

~ ~ 27


7 :

1 2 3 4 5 6

1
n ( A ) = 10
2
n ( B ) = 15
3
n (A B ) = 6
4
5 n ( A B ) = 19
6 :
10 5
= ) P (A =
36 18
15 5
= ) P (B =
36 12
6 1
= ) P (A B =
36 6
19
= ) P (A B
36
) P (B A ) = P (B \ A ) = P (B ) P ( A B
9 1
= )P (B A =
36 4
) P (A B ) = P ( A B ) = 1 P ( A B
17
= )P (A B
36
) P (A B ) = P ( A B ) = 1 P ( A B
30 5
= )P (A B =
36 6

~ ~ 28
 ) (.
:

: A
5 : B
)( A B ) , ( A B ) , ( B A ) , ( A B ) , ( A B :

:
:
1 2 3 4
)1 (1,1 ) (1, 2 )(1,3 ) (1, 4
2 ) ( 2,1) ( 2, 2 ) ( 2,3) ( 2, 4
}) A = {(1, 2 ) , ( 3, 2 )( 4, 2 ) , ( 2,1) , ( 2,3) , ( 2, 4
3 ) ( 3,1) ( 3, 2 ) ( 3,3) ( 3, 4
4 ) ( 4,1) ( 4, 2 ) ( 4,3) ( 4, 4 )B = {( 3, 4 ) , ( 4, 2 ) , ( 4, 4 ) , ( 3,3) , ( 2, 4 ) ,} ( 4,3

n ( ) = 16 , n ( A ) = 6 , n ( B ) = 6 , n ( A B ) = 2 , n ( A B ) = 10

6 3
= ) P (A =
16 8
6 3
= = ) P (B
16 8
2 1
= = ) P (A B
16 8
10 5
= = ) P (A B
16 8
2 1
= )P (B A ) = P (B \ A ) = P (B ) P ( A B ) , P (B A =
8 4
) P (A B ) = P ( A B ) = 1 P ( A B
3
= ), P (A B
8
) P (A B ) = P ( A B ) = 1 P ( A B
7
= ), P (A B
8

~ ~ 29
 :
:
) (a + b = C ( n , 0) a n + C ( n ,1) a n 1 b 1 + C ( n , 2) a n 2 b 2 + ........... + C ( n , n ) b n
n

k =n
) (a + b
n
= C (n , k ) a n k b k
k =0

: n ( ) = 32 A
0 1 2 3 4 5 :
n (A ) 1 5 10 10 5 1

5 0
1 1 1 1
= C ( 5,5 ) :
2 2 32 32
4 1
1 1 5 5
= C ( 5, 4 ) :
2 2 32 32
3 2
1 1 10 10
= C ( 5,3) :
2 2 32 32
2 3
1 1 10 10
= C ( 5, 2 ) :
2 2 32 32
1 4
1 1 5 5
= C ( 5,1) :
2 2 32 32
0 5
1 1 1 1
= C ( 5, 0 ) :
2 2 32 32
5

+
1 1
2 2

:
n 0 , 1 , 2 , ......, n

P (0) + P (1) + ......... + P (n ) = 1 :

:
p q = 1 p n :
r n r > 0 A } A = {X = r

f (r ) = C (n , r ) p r q n r P (A ) = C (n , r ) p r q n r

~ ~ 30
 :
1
= x :
2
A
P (A ) = C (n , r ) x r (1 x ) n r
3 4
1 1 35
P (A ) = C (7,3) = :
2 2 96
7
10 :
10
(1 8
(2
(3
3 7
= 1 x : = x
10 10
} {x = r r
(1 } {x = 8 8
P (x = r ) = C (n , r ) x r (1 x ) n r
n = 10 , r = 8 :
8 2
7 3
P (x = 8) = C (10,8) :
10 10
8 2
7 3
) P (x = 8) = C (10, 2) = ( 45)( 7 ) ( 3) (10
8 2 10

10 10
P (x = 8) = 0.233474405

(2 } {x = 4 4
P (B ) = C (n , r ) x r (1 x ) n r n = 10 , r = 4 :
4 6
7 3
P (x = 4) = C (10, 4) :
10 10
) P ( x = 4) = ( 210 )( 2401)( 729 )(10 P ( x = 4) = 0.0367569090
10

(3 A :
}A = {x = 0} {x = 1} {x = 2

~ ~ 31
 :
)P (A ) = P (x = 0) + P (x = 1) + P (x = 1
0 10 1 9 2 8
7 3 7 3 7 3
= C (10, 0) + C (10,1) + C (10, 2)
10 10 10 10 10 10
= 0.0000059049 + 0.0001377810 + 0.0014467005
P (A ) = 0.0015903864

P (A ) = 1 P (A ) :

P ( A ) = 1 0.0015903864 = 0.9984096136 :
9
:
10
7 10
1 9
= )P (A = ) P (A : A
10 10
10 B 7
7 3
9 1
P (B ) = C (10, 7)
10 10
) (120 )( 9
7

= = 0.057395628
) (10
10

1
:
100

:
1
= x :
100
99
= 1 x
100
A
1 99
0 4
1 99
1 0

P ( A ) = C (4, 0)
C )(1,1
100 100 100 100

P (A ) = 9.6 103

~ ~ 32
 :

A B

.
:
:

(1
(2
:
3 1
= ) P (A } = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6 } A = {2,3,5 = (1
6 2
(2 } B = {1,3,5
} X = { 3,5
2
P1 ( X =) : X B
3
2
= ) P1 ( X A B
3
2 2
= ) P (A | B = ) PB ( A
3 3
P1 P
X = A B
) n (A B
) n (A B )n ( ) P (A B
= ) P1 ( X ) = P ( A | B = = : P (B ) 0
) n (B ) n (B ) P (B
)n (

P1 :
) B P ( S P ( B ) 0
) ( , P (S ) , P
) P (A B ) P (A B
= ) PB ( A = ) P ( A | B :
) P (B ) P (B

~ ~ 33
 A B B : ) 0 P ( A B ) P ( B P ( B ) > 0
) P (A B
0 1
) P (B

)P ( A | B ) [ 0,1] ........................ (1

A1
) P ( B ) P (B
B = ) P ( | B = ) = 1 ...................... ( 2
) P (B ) P (B
A1 B
:
A1 , A 2
A2
A2 B P ( A1 A 2 ) B
= ) P ( ( A1 A 2 ) | B
) P (B
P ( A1 B ) ( A 2 B )
=
) P (B

A 2 B : , A1 B
A 2 , A1

) P ( A1 B ) + P ( A 2 B
= ) P ( ( A1 A 2 ) | B
) P (B
) P ( A1 B ) P ( A2 B
= ) P ( ( A1 A 2 ) | B +
) P (B ) P (B

)P ( ( A1 A 2 ) | B ) = P ( A 1 | B ) + P ( A 2 | B ) ..................... ( 3
) ( 3) , ( 2 ) , (1 P1
:

) ( , P ( ) , P
:
) P (A B
= ) P1 : P ( ) [ 0 , 1] : P1 ( A ) = P ( A | B , P (B ) 0
) P (B

. B

:
P1 :
1
)1 ) P (A | B ) = 1 P (A | B
)2 P ( ( A1 A 2 ) | B ) = P ( A 1 | B ) + P ( A 2 | B ) P (( A 1 A2)| B )

~ ~ 34
 2 B , A ) ( , P ( ) , P P ( B ) 0

:
:
= A B
) P (A B ) ( P
= ) P (A | B = =0
) P (B ) P (B

:
B A
) P (A B ) P (B
= ) P (A | B = =1
) P (B ) P (B

: % 75 % 40
% 35 . .
.
(1
.
(2
.
(3
:
: A
: B
75 40 35
= ) P (A = ) , P (B , = ) P (A B :
100 100 100
(1 ) P ( A | B
) P (A B
= ) P (A | B
) P (B
35
35 7
= P ( A | B ) = 100 =
40 40 8
100
(2 P ( B | A ) :
) P (A B
= ) P (B | A
) P (A
35
7
= P ( B | A ) = 100
75 15
100
~ ~ 35
 (3 P ( A | B ) :
)P ( A B
= )P ( A | B ).............. (1
)P ( B
) P ( A B ) = P ( A \ B ) = P ( A ) P ( A B
75 35 40
= = :
100 100 100
40 60
P ( B ) = 1 =
100 100
) (1:
40
P ( A | B ) = 100
60
100
2
= )P ( A | B
3

) :(2 ) ( ) ( :
O A B A B
80 138 142 97 457
130 180 172 100 582
210 318 314 197 1039

:
AB
(1
O
(2
A
(3
:
P ( A B ) 97
= ) P ( AB | = (1
)P ( 457
P (O ) 130 13
= ) P ( |O = = (2
) P (O 210 21

)P (A ) = P ( ) + P () P (A (3
318 457 138 637
= )P (A + =
1039 1039 1039 1039

~ ~ 36
 ):(3
9 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9

(1
.

(2 8
.

:
(1 : A .
: B .
P ( A | B ) :
) P (A B ) n (A B
= ) P (A | B = ) ( ........................
) P (B ) n (B

) n (B , n ( A B ) :

B ) (
) ( :
)n ( B ) = C ( 4, 2 ) + C ( 4,1) .C ( 5,1
= 6 + 4 5 = 26

A B :
n ( A B ) = C ( 4, 2 ) = 6

) ( :
6 3
= ) P (A | B =
26 13
(2 C 8 }C = {1 , 2 , 4 ,8

D
) P (C D ) n (C D
= ) P (C | D = ......... ........ ( ) :
) P (D ) n (D

~ ~ 37
 D
n ( D ) = C ( 5,1) .C ( 4,1) = 20

D C ) 1 ( 6
) } {2, 4 , 8 }( {3 , 5, 7 , 9

n ( D C ) = C (1,1) C (1,1) + C (3,1) C (4,1) = 13

13
= ) P (C | D ) ( :
20

):(4
A , B ) ( , P ( ) , P:
1 7 1
= ) P (A \ B = ) , P (A B = ) , P (B | A
8 8 2
:
)P ( B ) , P ( A B ) , P ( A ) , P ( A | B ) , P ( A | B ) , P ( A | B
)) P ( A B ) , P ( A | ( A B

:
1
= ) P (A \ B
8
1
= ) P (A ) P ( A B ).............. (1
8
7
= ) P (A B
8
7
) P ( A ) + P ( B ) P ( A B ) = ................... ( 2
8
1
= ) P (B | A
2
P (A B ) 1
=
) P (A 2

)P (A ) = 2P (A B )................... ( 3

) (1 ) ( 2 :
3
= ) P (B
4

~ ~ 38
 : ( 1) ( 3)
1
P (A B ) =
8
: ( 2)
1
P (A ) =
4
P (A B ) 1
P (A | B ) =
P (B ) 6
P (A | B ) = 1 P (A | B )
5
P (A | B ) =
6
P (A B )
P ( A | B ) =
P (B )
P (A \ B )
=
1 P (B )
1
1
=8=
1 2
4
P ( A B ) = P ( A B )
1
= 1 P (A B ) =
8
P ( A ( A B ))
P ( A | ( A B )) = :A A B
P (A B )
P (A )
=
P (A B )
1
P ( A | ( A B )) = 4 =
2
7 7
8

~ 39 ~
 :
) P (A B
: = ) P (A | B , P (B ) 0
) P (B

P ( A B ) = P ( B ) . P ( A | B ) , P ( B ) 0 ) A ( B
B A
) P (A B
= ) P ( A | B: , P (B ) 0
) P (B

P ( A B ) = P ( A ) . P ( B | A ) , P ( A ) 0 ) A ( B
A B

) A , B , C P ( P ( A ) 0 P ( A B ) 0
:
) ) P ( A B C ) = P ( ( A B ) C ) = P ( A B ) .P (C | ( A B
) ) P ( A B C ) = P ( A ) . P ( B | A ) . P (C | ( A B

) A C ( B A B C

) (

):(1

10 ) 5 3 2 (
.:
.
(1
) (.

( 2

:
(1 : A .
: B .
: C .

~ ~ 40
 P ( A B C ) :

) ) P ( A B C ) = P ( A ) . P ( B | A ) . P (C | ( A B
5 3 2 1
= =
10 9 8 24
(2 : D :
!P ( D ) = P ( A B C ) 3
1 1
= = ! 3
24 4

):(2
. A , B , C , D
) ( . .
.

: :

C 2 B 1 A 2

3 2 5
D D C 1 B A
1 3
1 2
3 5

:
2
= ) P (A
5
)P ( B ) = P (A ) P ( B | A
3 1 3
= = ) P (B
5 2 10
) )P (C ) = P (A ) P ( B | A ) P (C | ( A B
3 1 2 2
= = ) P (C
5 2 3 10
) )P ( D ) = P (A ) P ( B | A ) P (C | ( A B ) ) P ( D | ( A B C
3 1 1 1
= P ( D ) = 1
5 2 3 10

~ ~ 41
 ):(3
) ( 5
.
(1
(2

:
(1 :
) ( ) () (
A:
3 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 1
P (A ) = + +
5 4 3 5 4 3 5 4 3
3
= ) P (A
10
( 2 B
) P (A B
= ) P (B | A
) P (A
3 2 1 3 2 1
+
P (B | A ) = 5 4 3 5 4 3
3
3 2 10
5 5 = ) P (B | A
2
3

2
1
2 3
4 4
4 4

1 2 1 1
2 2
3 3 3 3
3 3

~ ~ 42
 :
A 1 , A 2 , A 3 ,...., A n

: (
)

B = B = ( A 1 A 2 A 3 ..... A n ) B :
) B P (
A1
A1 B
A2 A B :
12

i i ) B = ( A 1 B ) ( A 2 B ) ( A 3 B ) ..... ( A n B
i i
i i A 1 , A 2 , A 3 ,...., A n :
An An B
) (B A 1 ) , (B A 2 ) , (B A 3 ),....., (B A n

) ) P (B ) = P ( (A 1 B ) (A 2 B ) ..... (A n B
) = P (A 1 B ) + P (A 2 B ) + .... + P (A n B

) P ( B ) = P ( A 1 ) P ( B | A 1 ) + P (A 2 ) P ( B | A 2 ) + .................... + P ( A n ) P ( B | A n

k =n
P ( B ) = P (A k ) P ( B | A k ) :
k =1

) P ( Ah B
= ) P (A h | B P (A h B ) = P (A h ) P ( B | A h ) :
) P (B

) P ( Ah ) P ( B | Ah
= ) P (A h | B
) P (B
) P ( Ah ) P ( B | Ah
= ) P (A h | B
) P (A 1 B ) + P (A 2 B ) + .... + P (A n B

) P ( Ah ) P ( B | Ah
= ) P (A h | B k =n
} : h {1, 2,......., n
P (A k ) ) P ( B | Ak
k =1

~ ~ 43
 : :
A1 , A 2 , A3
) P ( B | A1
A1 B | A1 ) P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1
) P ( A1

) P (A2 ) P (B | A2
A2 B | A2 ) P (A2 ) P (B | A2

) P (A3 ) P (B | A3
A3 B | A3 ) P (A3 ) P (B | A3

) P (B ) = P (A1 ) P (B | A1 ) + P (A2 ) P (B | A2 ) + P (A3 ) P (B | A3

:
:
40 0 0 10 0 0
60 0 0 30 0 0 .
(a
(b

: A :
B
D
) D = (A D ) (B D (a
) P ( D ) = P ( A ) P (D | A ) + P ( B ) P (D | B

:
4 1 6 3 11
= ) P (D = +
10 10 10 10 50
(b ) : P (A | D
4 1 1
= ) P (A D =
10 10 25
P (A D ) 2
= ) P (A | D =
) P (D 11

~ ~ 44
 10 7 :
15 8 20 13
:
(a
(b

:
(a A1 , A 2 , A3

7
1 = )P( B | A1
= ) P ( A1 7
= ) P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1
10
3 A1 B | A1
30
8
= ) P ( B | A2
1
= ) P ( A2 8
3 A2 15 B | A2 = ) P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2
45
1
= ) P ( A3
13
= ) P ( B | A3 13
3 A3 20 B | A 3 = ) P ( A3 ) P ( B | A 3
60
P (B ) = P (A1 ) P (B | A1 ) + P (A2 ) P (B | A2 ) + P (A 3 ) P (B | A 3 ) :

7 8 13
= ) P (B + +
30 45 60
42 + 32 + 39 113
= =
180 180
(b
) P ( A3 ) P ( B | A3
= ) P (A 3 | B
) P (B
13
39
= P (A 3 | B ) = 60
113 113
180

~ ~ 45


20 0 0 30 0 0
50 0 0
3 0 0 4 0 0

7 0 0

(a
(b

:
(a A1 , A 2 , A3
B

20 3
= ) P ( A1 = )P( B| A1
6
= ) P ( A1 ) P ( B | A 2
100 100
A1 B | A1
1000
30 4
= ) P ( A2 = ) P ( B | A2
12
100 A2 100 B | A2 = ) P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2
1000
50 7
= ) P ( A3 = ) P ( B | A3 35
100 A
3
100 B | A3 = ) P ( A3 ) P ( B | A 3
1000
P (B ) = P (A1 ) P (B | A1 ) + P (A2 ) P (B | A2 ) + P (A 3 ) P (B | A 3 ) :

6 12 35 53
= ) P (B + + =
1000 1000 1000 1000
) P ( A1 ) P ( B | A1
= ) P ( A1 | B
) P (B
6 (b
6
= = 1000
53 53
1000

~ ~ 46
 :
) 6 ) ( 5 (
) ( ) . (
) 8) ( 6 (


-1
) (

-2
:
: B :T :

B
6
= )P (B |
11

1
P ( ) = 5
2 = )P (T |
11 T

4 B
P ) ( =
1
= )P (B |
2 7

3
= )P (T |
7 T
1 6 1 4 43
= ) P (B = + (1
2 11 2 7 77
T (2
) P (T ) P ( ) P (T |
= ) P ( |T =
) P (T ) P ( ) P (T | ) + P ( ) P (T |
1 3

= ) P ( |T 2 7
1 5 1 3
+
2 11 2 7
3
33
= P ( |T ) = 7
3 4 61
+
7 11

~ ~ 47
 :

: :

=

: ) ( 365

31
: 31
365
: 1 , 1 , 1 , 2 , 2 , 3, 4
3 4
1
7 7
1
3
7
2
2
7
: :

) (

(1
) (.....

~ ~ 48
 ) n (A
= ) P (A (2 A :
)n (

) n (A ) , n (
(3
) (
A ) B A ( B
) ( A , B A B :
) P (A B ) = P (A ) . P (B | A , P (A ) 0

A ) B A ( B D A B

) P ( D ) = 2P ( A ) . P ( B | A : P (A ) 0 }) D = {( A , B ) , ( B , A :

) P ( D ) = 2P ( B ) . P ( A | B : P (B ) 0 :

A B ) C A B ( C
) ( A , B , C A B C :

)) P ( A B C ) = P ( A ) . P ( B | A ) P (C | ( A B : P (A ) 0 , P (B | A ) 0

A B ) C A B ( C
H A B C h

:
)) P ( H ) = h P ( A ) . P ( B | A ) P (C | ( A B : P (A ) 0 , P (B | B ) 0

h = 3! = 6 : A B C : :
) ( B , A ,C ) ( B ,C , A ) (C , A , B ) (C , B , A ) ( A ,C , B ) ( A , B ,C
h = 3 A B C A = C
) (B , A , A ) (A , A , B ) (A , B , A :

~ ~ 49
 3 : 9 1 9
:

(1
(2
(3

A ) (

4
5 } {2, 4, 6,8
} {1,3, 7,5,9

(1
n ( ) = C ( 9, 2 ) = 36
)C ( 5,1) C ( 4,1 20 5
= ) P (A = =
) C ( 9, 2 36 9

(2 :
5 4 4 5 5
= ) P (A = +
9 8 9 8 9
} ) (
) ( {
5 4 5
= ) P ( A ) = 2 2 (
9 8 9
(3
n ( ) = 92 = 81
5 4 4 5 40
= ) (A = +
9 9 9 9 81
) (
) (
5 4 40
= ) (A = 2
9 9 81

~ ~ 50
 : 8 0 , 0 , 2 , 2 , 3 , 3 , 3 , 4 :
.:

(1 0 3

(2 3

5
(3

3.
(4

(5
.

:
(1 A 0 B 3

: A B
2 3 3
= ) P (A B ) = P (A ) . P (B | A =
8 7 28
(2 C 3 A B 2
3
= ) P (C ) = 2P ( A ) . P ( B | A
14
(3 : D 5

: H
P ( H | D ) :
P (D H )
= ) P (H | D )............ (1
) P (D

D :
) ( 3 ) 4 }( {2,3
3 2 1 5 16
= P (D ) = + 2 :
8 7 8 7 56
D H ) 4 ( 3
1 3 6
= P (D H ) = 2 :
8 7 56

~ ~ 51
 6 3
= ) P (H | D = ) (1:
16 8
: G . 3 (4 : F .
P (G | F ) :
) P (G F
= ) P (G | F ) ............... ( 2
) P (F

F ) ( 0 ) ( 2
) ( 3:
5 2 1 2 1 3 2
= ) P (F P (F ) = + +
28 8 7 8 7 8 7
G F ) ( 3
3 3 2
= ) P (G F = ) P (G F
28 8 7
) ( 2:
3
= ) P (G | F
5
(5 : E .
: Z .
) P ( Z | E
) P (Z E
= ) P (Z | E )...................... ( 3
) P (E

F , E :
5 23
P (E ) = 1 = ) P ( E ) = 1 ( F
28 28
Z E ) 3 (
3 5 15
= P (Z E ) = 2
8 7 28

15
15
= P ( Z | E ) = 28 ) ( 3:
23 23
28

~ ~ 52
 :
P (A B ) = P (B ) . P (A | B ) , P (B ) 0
P (A B ) = P (A ) . P (B | A ) , P (A ) 0
) P ( A B ) = P ( A ) . P ( B ) P ( A | B ) = P ( A ) P ( B | A ) = P ( B
A , B
:

: ) ( , P ( ) , P A , B
P ( A B ) = P ( A ).P ( B ) :

: :
}A = {2, 4, 6} , B = {3, 6} , C = {3, 2, 4
3 1 2 1 3 1
= ) P (A = = ) , P (B = = ) , P (C = :
6 2 6 3 6 2
}C B = {3 }A C = {2, 4 } A B = {6
1 1 1
= ) P (C B = ) P (A C = ) P (A B
6 3 6
1
A , B = ) P (A B ) = P (A ).P (B
6
1 1
= ) P ( A C ) = , P ( A ) . P ( B A , C
2 4
1
= ) P (C B ) = P (C ) . P ( B C , B
6

:


: A : B .
A , B.

~ ~ 53
 :
= {( H , H , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T ) ,
}) (T , H ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T ) , (T ,T , H ) , (T ,T ,T
n ( ) = 8 , n ( A ) = 6 , n (B ) = 4 , n (A B ) = 3
6 3 4 1 3
= ) P (A = = ) , P (B = , = ) P (A B
8 4 8 2 8
) P ( A B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B

A , B.

) ( , P ( ) , P A , B
A , B .

P ( A B ) = P ( A \ B ) :
) = P (A ) P ( B
) = P ( A ) P ( ).P ( B
A , B (
) = P ( A ) 1 P ( B )
)= P ( A ) . P ( B

A , B .
:
) ( , P ( ) , P
A , B A , B.
A , B A , B

:
) P ( A B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B A , B

A , B.
) (

~ ~ 54
 :
A , B :

A B
.....
A
B ......
) (
) ) ( (

) P ( A B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B

):(1
7
( X )
) ( X ) , (Y .
10
9
. (Y )

10
(1 .
(2 .
) ( X .

(3
:
: A ) ( X
: B ) (Y
A B A B
(1 P ( A B ) ::
) P ( A B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B
7 9 63
= =
10 10 100

~ ~ 55
 (2 ) P ( A B:
) P (A B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) P (A B
7 9 63 97
= + =
10 10 100 100
A1 A B
(3 : A1 X A1 = A B
) ) P ( A1 | ( A B ( A B ) A1 = A1 = A B
P ( A B ) A1 )P ( A B
= ) ) P ( A1 | ( A B =
) P (A B ) P (A B
7 1
1 ) P ( A ) .P ( B
= )P ( B = = 10 10 = 7
10 ) P (A B 97 97
100

):(2
72
.
100
80
:
100
(1 .
(2 .

:
: A
: B .

(1 ) P ( A B
A , B )
:
(
) P ( A B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B
72 80 576
= =
100 100 1000
) P ( A B
(2

) P (A B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) P (A B
72 80 576 944
= + =
100 100 1000 1000

~ ~ 56

) ( , P (S ) , P ) :(1 A , B , C
A , B , C

: ) ( , P (S ) , P ) :(2 A , B , C

A , B ,C :
A , B ,C ........... . (1)

P ( A B C ) = P ( A ) . P ( B ) . P (C ) ........ ( 2 )

):(1
) ( 8 1 8 :
: A . 4
: B .
: C 2 . 7
A , B , C .

:
} = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7 ,8 , n () = 8
4 1
}A = {1, 2 ,3, 4 , n (A ) = 4 = ) , P (A
=
8 2
4 1
}B = {2,3,5, 7 = = ) , n (B ) = 4 , P (B
8 2
4 1
}C = {3, 4,5, 6 = = ) , n (C ) = 4 , P (C
8 2
2 1
} A B = {2,3 = = ) , P (A B
8 4
2 1
} A C = {3, 4 = ) , P (A C =
8 4
2 1
} B C = {3,5 = ) , P ( B C =
8 4
1
}A B C = {3 = ) , P ( A B C
8
~ ~ 57
 :
P ( A B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B )
P ( A C ) = P ( A ) .P (C )
P ( B C ) = P ( B ) .P (C )

A , B ,C
P ( A B C ) = P ( A ) .P ( B ) .P (C )

. A , B ,C

:(2)

A , B ,C ( , P ( S ) , P )
. A B , C :

:
P ( A B ) C = P ( A B ) . P (C )


1 = P ( A B ) C = P ( A C ) ( B C )
= P (A C ) + P (B C ) P (A C B C )
= P (A C ) + P (B C ) P (A B C )
= P ( A ) . (C ) + P ( B ) .P (C ) P ( A ) .P ( B ) .P (C )
= P ( A ) + P ( B ) P ( ) .P ( B ) .P (C )
= P ( A ) + P ( B ) P ( A B ) .P (C )
= P ( A B ) P (C )
= 2

~ 58 ~
 :


:
:
) (
) (
.

: ) . ( , P ( ) , P

X : X

. X
) X (

X ( ) = {x 1 , x 2 ,......, x n } : n


: :
= {( H , H , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T ) ,
}) (T , H ,T ) , (T ,T , H ) , ( H ,T ,T ) , (T ,T ,T
: X

) ( H

{3, 2,1, 0} : X

) (H , H , H
) (T , H , H
) (H ,T , H 3
) (H , H ,T 2
) (T , T , H 1
) (T , H , T 0
) (H ,T ,T
}X ( ) = {3, 2,1, 0
) (T , T , T

~ ~ 59


X 1
( 3) = {( H , H , H )} : 3

X 1
( 2 ) = {(T , H , H ) , ( H ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T )} : 2

X 1
1 (1) = {(T ,T , H ) , (T , H ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T )} :
X 1
( 0 ) = {(T ,T ,T )} : 0

{X X } = x k 1
: ) ( x k
) } P ({X = x k ) P (X = x k

: . X
Y 3
2 1

(1

(2 .
(3 } {X = 1} , {Y = 3

:
(1

5 X
5
6
6 Y
5 5
3 4 4
3 3 3
4 4
2
2 2 2
1 1
1 0 1
0

X () = {1,2,3,5 } } Y ( ) = {1, 2,3

(2 : X
{X = 1} = {1, 2} , {X = 2} = {4} , {X = 3} = {3, 6} , {X }= 5} = {5

:Y
{Y }= 1} = {1} , {Y = 2} = {4, 6} , {Y = 3} = {2,3,5

~ ~ 60
 {X }= 1} {Y = 3} = {2 {Y }= 3} = {2,3,5 {X = 1} = {1, 2} (3
1 1
= ) P (Y = 3 = ) P ( X = 1
2 3

= ) }P ({X = 1} {Y = 3
1 1 1 1
= = )P ( X = 1) P (Y = 3
3 2 6 6
)P ({X = 1} {Y = 3} ) = P ( X = 1) P (Y = 3

} {X = 1} , {Y = 3
:

: ) ( , P ( ) , P X

} X ( ) = {x 1 , x 2 ,....., x n

(1

{X = x 1 } , {X = x 2 } ,............. , {X = x n } :

(2 ) X ( 1

P ( X = x 1 ) + P ( X = x 2 ) + ............. + P ( X = x n ) = 1
k =n

P (X = xk ) =1 :
k =1

~ ~ 61
 :
. X
:

(1
(2 3
(3 7

(1
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

}X ( ) = {2,3, 4,5, 6, 7 ,8,9,10,11,12

X 3 3
(2

{X = 3} = {(1, 2 ) , ( 2,1)} :

2 1
= )P ( X = 3 = :
36 18

X 7 .7
(3

{X })= 7} = {(1, 6 ) , ( 6,1) , ( 2,5) , ( 5, 2 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 4,3

6 1
= )P (X = 7 = :
36 6

~ ~ 62
 :
. X
:

(1
(2 1
(3 4

(1
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 2 2 3 4 5 6
3 3 3 3 4 5 6
4 4 4 4 4 5 6
5 5 5 5 5 5 6
6 6 6 6 6 6 6

}X ( ) = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6

{X X 1 } )= 1} = {(1,1
(2
1
= )P ( X = 1
36
X 4
(3
{X }) = 4} = {(1, 4 ) , ( 4,1) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 4, 2 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 4,3) , ( 4, 4
7
= )P ( X = 4
36

~ ~ 63
 : ) (

) ( , P ( ) , P : X

} X ( ) = {x 1 , x 2 ,....., x n
:
} f : X ( ) [ 0 ,1] ; f ( x k ) = P ( X = x k ) ; k {1, 2,..., n

:
:
= {( H , H , H ) , (T , H , H ) , ( H ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T ) ,
}) (T , H ,T ) , (T ,T , H ) , ( H ,T ,T ) , (T ,T ,T
X ) ( H
XX ( ) = {3, 2,1, 0} :

:
X

}) = 3} = {( H , H , H
1
= )f (3) = P ( x = 3 {X
8

= 2} = {(T , H , H ) , ( H ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T })
3
= ) f (2) = P ( X = 2 {X
8

= 1} = {(T ,T , H ) , (T , H ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T })
3
= )f (1) = P ( X = 1 {X
8

= 0} = {(T ,T ,T })
1
= ) f (0) = P ( X = 0 {X
8
:
X

. x 1 , x 2 ,......, x n

) f ( x 1 ) , f ( x 2 ) ,......, f ( x r
xk x1 x2 ........ xn
:
f (x k ) f ( x 1 ) f ( x 2 ) ......... ) f (x n

xk 0 1 2 3

1 3 3 1
) f (x k
8 8 8 8

~ ~ 64
 : X:

) x k X ( f (x k ) 0 1
k =n

P ({X
k =1
= x k }) = 1 2

k =n

f (x ) = 1
k
k =1

x 1 , x 2 ,......, x n N

x 1 , x 2 ,......, x n N 1 , N 2 ,......, N n:

N = n ( ) = N 1 + N 2 + ....... + N n

N1 N Nn
2 .........
N N N
{X = x 1 } , {X = x 2 } ,............. , {X } = x n
N1 N N
= ) f (x 1 , f (x 2 ) = 2 ,..............., f (x n ) = n
N N N
X
} X ( ) = {x 1 , x 2 ,......, x n

:
x 1 N 1 + x 2 N 2 + ........... + x n N n N N N
= x = x 1 1 + x 2 2 ........... + x n n
N N N N
) x = x 1 f (x 1 ) + x 2 f (x 2 )........... + x n f (x n
k =n
= x x k f (x k ) :
k =1

~ ~ 65
 ( :
)
:
k =n
E (X ) X
x k f (x k )

k =1

k =n k =n
= x k f (x k
k =1
) E ( X ) = x k f ( x k )
k =1
:

: . X
:
. X
(1
(2 . X
. X
(3

:
(1
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 2 2 3 4 5 6
}X ( ) = {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6 3 3 3 3 4 5 6
4 4 4 4 4 5 6
5 5 5 5 5 5 6
6 6 6 6 6 6 6

: })= 1} = {(1,1
1
{X = )f (1) = P ( X = 1 (2
36

= ) : f ( 2 ) = P ( X = 2 }) {X = 1} = {(1, 2 ) , ( 2,1) , ( 2, 2
3
36
9 7 5
= )f ( 5) = P ( X = 5 = )f ( 4) = P ( X = 4 = ) f ( 3) = P ( X = 3
36 36 36
11
= )f ( 6) = P ( X = 6
36
~ ~ 66
 X:

xk 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 3 5 7 9 11
f (x k )
36 36 36 36 36 36
k =6
E (X =) x k f (x k ) (3
k =1

1 3 5 7 9 11
E (X ) = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6
36 36 36 36 36 36
161
E (X ) =
36

5 ) 3 2 (
. X .
. X
X

}X ( ) = {0 , 1 , 2 :
)C ( 3,3 1
= )f ( 0) = P ( X = 0 = {X = 0} :
)C ( 5,3 10

{X = 1} :
)C ( 3, 2 ) .C ( 2,1 6
= )f (1) = P ( X = 1 =
)C ( 5,3 10

{X = 2} :
) C ( 3,1) .C ( 2, 2 3
= )f ( 2) = P ( X = 2 =
)C ( 5,3 10

xk 0 1 2
X:

1 6 3
f (x k ) 10 10 10
3
E (X ) = x k f (x k ) :
k =1

6 6 12
E (X ) = 0 + = +
10 10 10
6
= ) E (X
5

~ ~ 67
 : 0 , 0 , 0 , 0 , 0 ,1,1,1,1

. X
X
X
.
.

:
}X ( S ) = {0 , 1 , 2 , 3

{X = 0} : 0
)C ( 5,3 10 5
= )f (0 = = :
)C ( 9,3 84 42

{X = 1} : 0 1
)C ( 5, 2 ) .C ( 4,1 40 20
= )f (1 = = :
)C ( 9,3 84 42

{X = 2} : 1 0
) C ( 5,1) .C ( 4, 2 30 15
= )f ( 2 = = :
)C ( 9,3 84 42

{X = 3} : 1
)C ( 4,3 4 2
= )f ( 3 = = :
)C ( 9,3 84 42

X:

xk 0 1 2 3
5 20 15 2
f (x k )
42 42 42 42
4
20 30 6
E (X ) = x k f (x k ) = 0 + + + :
k =1 42 42 42
4
= ) E (X
3

~ ~ 68
 :
.
8 6
.
10 10
5 3 .
4 5 .

X

X
X
:
A B :
= {A B , A B , A B , A B }
{X = 8} = A B
5 + 3 = 8 :
{X = 1} = A B
:
4 + 3 = 1
{X = 0} = A B
:
5 5 = 0
{X = 9} = A B
4 5 = 9 :

X ( ) = {9 , 1 , 0 , 8 } :

: ) ( A , B ) , ( A , B ) , ( A , B ) , ( A , B
) f ( 9 ) = P ( A B
) = P ( A ) .P ( B
4 2 8
= =
10 10 100
4 8 32
= ) f ( 1) = P ( A B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B =
10 10 100
)f ( 0) = P ( A B
6 2 12
= ) = P ( A ) .P ( B =
10 10 100

~ ~ 69
 ) f ( 8) = P ( A B
6 8 48
= ) = P ( A ) .P ( B =
10 10 100
:
xk 9 1 0 8
8 32 12 48
f (x k )
100 100 100 100

:

4
E ( X ) = x k .f ( x k )
k =1

72 32 384
= + +0+
100 100 100
280
= ) E (X = 2,8
100

: 12

m 6 . X
X
.
m m ) E ( X ) = 0 (.

}X ( ) = {12 , m , 6 : :

= 12} = {(T ,T ,T })
1
= ) f (12) = P ( X = 12 {X
8

= m } = {(T ,T , H ) , (T , H ,T ) , ( H ,T ,T })
3
f (m ) = P ( X = m ) = {X
8
{X }) = 6} = {(T , H , H ) , ( H ,T , H ) , ( H , H ,T ) , ( H , H , H
4
= ) f ( 6) = P ( X = 6
8
X:

xk 12 m 6
1 3 4
f (x k )
8 8 8
3
12 3m 24 3m 12
= ) E (X ) = x k f (x k + + =
k =1 8 8 8 8

E ( X ) = 0 m = 4

~ ~ 70
 :

E (X ) ( , P ( ) , P ) X :

: a,b
E (aX + b ) = aE ( X ) + b E (a ) = a E (aX ) = aE ( X )

E (X E ( X )) = 0) E ( E ( X )) = E ( X )

E (aX ) = aE ( X )

:
n
E ( aX ) = ( a x k ) f (x k )
k =1
n
= a (x k f (x k ))
k =1
n
= a x k f ( x k )
k =1

= aE ( X )
E (a ) = a

:
n n
E ( a ) = a f ( x k ) =a f ( x k ) = a (1) = a
k =1 k =1

E (aX + b ) = aE ( X ) + b

:
n
E ( aX + b ) = ( a x k + b ) f ( x k )
k =1
n
= ((a x k ) f ( x k ) + bf ( x k ) )
k =1
n n
= (a x k ) f ( x k ) +b f (x k )
k =1 k =1
n n
= a ( x k f ( x k )) +b f ( x k )
k =1 k =1

= aE ( X ) + b (1)
= aE ( X ) + b

~ 71 ~
 ) E ( E ( X )) = E ( X

:
E ( X ) = a 2 ) E (E ( X )) = E (a ) E (E ( X )) = E (X

)E (X E ( X )) = 0

:
)) E (X E ( X )) = E (X ) E (E (X
= E (X ) E (X ) = 0

: X , Y ) ( , P ( ) , P
) E ( X ) , E (Y ) E ( X Y ) = E ( X ) E (Y ) E ( X Y ) = E ( X ) E (Y

: 0 , 0 ,1,1,1, 2 , 2 , 2 , 2

. X
.
.
:
X 1 X 2
X 2
} X 1 ( ) = X 2 ( ) = X 3 ( ) = {0,1, 2
xk 0 1 2
2 3 4
f (x k )
9 9 9
) E (X 1 ) = E (X 2 ) = E (X 3
3
0 3 8
= ) = x k f (x k + +
k =1 9 9 9
11
=
9
) E ( X ) = E ( X 1 + X 2 + X 3 ) = E ( X 1 ) + E ( X 2 ) + E (X 3
11
= ) E ( X ) = 3E ( X 1 E ( X ) = 11 + 11 + 11 = 11
3 9 9 9 3

~ ~ 72
 }X ( ) = {1, 2, 3, 4,5, 6 :
{X })= 1} = {( 0, 0,1
C (2, 2) C (3,1) 3
= )f (1) = P ( X = 1 = :
)C (9,3 84

}) {X = 2} = {( 0, 0, 2 ) , (1,1, 0 :
C (2, 2) C (4,1) + C (2,1) C (3, 2) 10
= )f ( 2) = P ( X = 2 =
)C (9,3 84

}) {X = 3} = {(1,1,1) , ( 0,1, 2 :
C (3,3) + C (2,1) C (3,1)C (4,1) 25
= )f ( 3) = P ( X = 3 =
)C (9,3 84

}) {X = 4} = {(1,1, 2 ) , ( 0, 2, 2 :
C (3, 2)C (4,1) + C (2,1) C (4, 2) 24
= )f ( 4) = P ( X = 4 =
)C (9,3 84
C (3,1) C (4, 2) 18
= )f ( 5 ) = P ( X = 5 = }) {X = 5} = {( 2, 2,1 :
)C (9,3 84

}) {X = 6} = {( 2, 2, 2 :
C (4,3) 4
= )f ( 6) = P ( X = 6 =
C (9,3) 84

X:

xk 1 2 3 4 5 6

3 10 25 24 18 4
f (x k )
84 84 84 84 84 84
k =6
= ) E (X x k f (x k )
k =1

3 10 25 24 18 4
= 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6
84 84 84 84 84 84
308 11
= ) E (X =
84 3

~ ~ 73
 : x
X X : , x 3x + 1

:
k =6
= ) E (T x k f (x k T ) :
k =1

1 1 1 1 1 1
E (T ) = (1) + ( 2 ) + ( 3) + ( 4 ) + ( 5 ) + ( 6 )
6 6 6 6 6 6
1 7
= ) = (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6
6 2

:
)E ( X ) = E ( 3x + 1
= 3E (T ) + 1
7
= 3 + 1
2
19
E (X ) =
2
:
}X ( ) = {2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17
k =6
= ) E (T x k f (x k )
k =1

1 1 1 1 1 1
= ( 2 ) + ( 5) + ( 8) + ( 11) + ( 14 ) + ( 17 )
6 6 6 6 6 6
1 57 19
= ( 2 5 8 11 14 17 ) = =
6 6 2

~ ~ 74


: p q ) ( p + q = 1
n np
n
E (X ) = x k : f ( x k ) :
k =1

xk = r f (r ) = C (n , r ) p r q n r :
n
E ( X ) = r C (n , r ) p r q n r
r =1
n
!r
= r p r q n r !): r ! = r (r 1
r =1 !) r !(n r
n
!n
= r p r q n r
r =1 !) r (r 1)!(n r
n
!n
= ) p r q ( n 1) ( r 1
r =1 !] )(r 1)![ (n 1) (r 1
n
!)n (n 1
= ) p p r 1 q ( n 1) ( r 1
r =1 !])(r 1)![ (n 1) (r 1
n
!)(n 1
= n p ) p r 1 q ( n 1) ( r 1
r =1 !] )(r 1) ![ (n 1) (r 1
n
)= n p C (n 1, r 1) p r 1 q ( n 1) ( r 1
k =1

= n p ( p + q ) n 1 : p +q =1
E (X ) = n p

: 50

:
X X
1
= p n = 50 E ( X ) = n p
2

) = ( 50 )
1
E (X = 25
2

~ ~ 75
 : 50

: X X

:
p q p = 2q p + q = 1
1 2
=q = p
3 3

n = 50
E ( X ) = n p :

) = ( 50 )
2 100
E (X =
3 3

E ( X ) = n q :

) = ( 50 )
1 50
E (X =
3 3

30 :
(1
(2 3

:
(1 X
X
5 1
= q n = 30 = p
6 6
E ( X ) = n p :

) = ( 30 )
1
E (X =5
6
E ( X ) = n q :

) = ( 30 )
5
E (X = 25
6

~ ~ 76
 (2 X
3 X
1
=p 3 } {3, 6
3
2
} {1, 2, 4, 5 = q
3
3 n = 30
1
E ( X ) = ( 30 ) = 10 : E (X ) = n p
3
3
2
E ( X ) = ( 30 ) = 20
3

) ( , P ( ) , P : X

} X ( ) = {x 1 , x 2 ,....., x n
:
r
) F : X ( ) [ 0 ,1] ; F ( x k x r ) = f ( x k
k =1

F ( x k ) = P (x k r ) : :
{X } = x 1 } , {X = x 2 } ......................{X = x r

) F ( x k x r ) = P ( X = x 1 ) + P ( X = x r ) + ..................... + P ( X = x r

: . X
| X ( x , y ) =| x y

X
X

X

) F ( 2 x k 4

~ ~ 77
 :
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2 1 0 1 2 3 4
} X ( ) = {0,1, 2,3, 4,5 3 2 1 0 1 2 3
4 3 2 1 0 1 2
5 4 3 2 1 0 1
6 5 4 3 2 1 0

(2
10 6
= )f (1) = P ( X = 1 = )f ( 0) = P ( X = 0
36 36
6 8
= )f ( 3) = P ( X = 3 = )f (2) = P (X = 2
36 36
2 4
= )f ( 5) = P ( X = 5 = )f ( 4) = P ( X = 4
36 36
X:

xk 0 1 2 3 4 5

6 10 8 6 4 2
f (x k )
36 36 36 36 36 36
k =6
= ) E (X x k f (x k )
k =1

6 10 8 6 4 2
= 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5
36 36 36 36 36 36
70 35
= ) E (X =
36 18
X:

xk 0 1 2 3 4 5

6 16 24 30 34
) F (x k x r 1
36 36 36 36 36

8 6 4
= )F ( 2 x k 4 + +
36 36 36
3
= )F ( 2 x k 4
6

~ ~ 78
 : :
X
} X () = {x 1 , x 2 ,......, x r :

r r
E ( X ) = x k f ( x k ) = x k f ( x k )
k =1 k =1

X
: variance
X )( ) V ( X
r
= ) V (X (x E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2
k
k =1

X :
V (X ) = E (x k ) 2
Standard Deviation :
x
r
x = E (x k ) 2 = x (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k
2
x ) = V (X )
k =1

)(

:
xk 0 1 2 3
1 3 3 1
f (x k )
8 8 8 8

:
4
E (X ) = x k f (x k )
k =1

0 4 6 9 19
=
+ + + =
12 12 12 12 12
0+3+6+3 3
= ) E (X =
8 2
:

~ ~ 79
 f (x k ) x k f (x k ) (x k E (X ) ) (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2 2
xk
1 9 9
0 8 0 4 32
3 3 1 3
1 8 8 4 32
3 6 1 3
2 8 8 4 32
1 3 9 9
3 8 8 4 32
r

k =1 1 E (X ) V (X )
4
V (X ) = (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2

k =1

9 + 3 + 3 + 9 24 3
V (X ) = = =
32 32 4
3
x = V (X ) =
2
:

q A p :
x2 = V (X ) = n p q n

: :
xk =r f (r ) = C (n , r ) p r q n r
n
E ( X ) = r C (n , r ) p r q n r = n p
r =1
n
E (X 2 ) = r 2C (n , r ) p r q n r :
r =0
n
r 2 n ! p r q n r
E (X 2 ) = : r = r (r 1) + r :
r = 0 r !( n r )!

E (X 2 ) =
n
[ r (r 1) + r ] n !p r q n r
r =0 r !(n r )!
n
r (r 1)n ! r n r n r n!
= p q + p r q n r
r = 0 r !( n r )! r = 0 r !( n r )!
n
r (r 1)n (n 1)(n 2)! r n r n
E (X 2 ) = p q + r C ( n , r ) p r q n r
r = 0 r ( r 1)( r 2)!( n r )! r =0

~ 80 ~
 n
n (n 1)(n 2)!
E (X 2 ) = p 2 p r 2 q n r + E (X )
r = 0 ( r 2)![ ( n 2) ( r 2) ]!
n
(n 2)!
E (X 2 ) = n (n 1) p 2 p x 2q ( n 2) ( r 2) + n p
r = 0 ( r 2)![ ( n 2) (r 2) ]!
n
E (X ) = n (n 1) p
2 2
C (n 2, r 2)p q ( n 2) ( r 2) + n p
r 2

r =0
n
E (X 2 ) = n (n 1) p 2 C (n 2, r 2)p r 2q (
n 2 ) ( r 2)
+np
r =0

= n (n 1) p 2 ( p + q )
n 2
+np : p +q =1
= n2 p2 n p2 + n p
:
x2 = E (X 2 ) [ E (X )]
2

x2 = n 2 p 2 n p 2 + n p n 2 p 2
= n p n p 2 = n p (1 p )
x2 = n p q

10
5 n , p :
3

:
E (X ) = n p , V (X ) = n p q
5 = n p ........... (1)
10
= n p q .... ( 2 )
3
2
q = ( 2 ) ( 1)
3
1
p = p = 1 q
3
n = 15 (1)

~ 81 ~
 ) ( , P () , P :
} X () = {x 1 , x 2 ,......, x n
n
= ) E (X x k f ( x k ) =
k =1

n
= x (x ) f (x k )
2
k
k =1

:
x k
xk
= z
x

: 5 :
3 10
2 7

:


xk
= z
x

xk 53
= z1 = = 0.2
x 10

:
xk 52 3
= z2 = = = 0.43
x 7 7

z 1 < z 2

~ ~ 82
 :

E ( X ) = np

:
.
:

) (1
) ( 2
) ( 3
) ( 4
) ( 5
) ( 6
) ( 7

:
:

x 1 2
e :
= e

= + + + .......
x =0 !x ! 0! 1! 2
e x
e x
x
= ) f (x n ] [ 0,1 =1 1 = e
!x x =0 !x x =0 !x

: X ..........4,3, 2,1, 0

e x
= ) f (x ) = P ( X = x
!x

e = 2, 7183 x = 0,1, 2........... :

= np
) (

~ ~ 83
 :
..........4,3, 2,1, 0
:
) (1
) ( 2

) ( 3

5
(1
(2

:
X
e x
= ) f (x 5
!x
e 5 50
= )f (0 (1 = 0.006737
!0
(2

)f ( x 2) = f (0) + f (1) + f (2
e 5 50 e 5 51 e 5 52
= )f (x 2 + +
!0 !1 !2
f (x 2) = 0.006737 + 0.016844 + 0.028074
f (x 2) = 0.0516548

~ ~ 84
 4m 2
4m 6m

(1
(2
(3

:
X

e x 1
= ) f (x 4 6 = 6
!x 4
e 6 6 0
= )f (0 (1 = 0.00247865
!0
(2

)f ( x 1) = f (0) + f (1
e 6 60 e 6 61
= )f (x 1 +
!0 !1
f (x 1) = 0.00247865 + 0.01487192
f (x 1) = 0.01735

(3
)f (x 2) = 1 f (x 1
f (x 2) = 1 0.01735
f (x 2) = 0.98265

5
(1 20
(2 15

:
X
e x
= ) f (x
!x
(1 20
~ ~ 85
 2
= 20 = 8
5
) e 8 ( 8
0

= )f (0 = 0.00035 :
!0
(2 15
2
= 15 = 6
5
) e 6 ( 6
4

= )f (4 = 0.1309 :
!4

:

x 1 2
= e = + + + ....... ][1
x =0 !x !0! 1! 2

e x
x
x=0
= ) p (X = x
x=0 !x
= e
x=0 ! x
= e e = 1

] [ 2
) p 0 ( = n p ) n (
E ( X ) = V ( X ) = ] [3
:

) E (X ) = xf (x
x =0

e x
E (X ) = x
x =0 !x

e x 1
= ) E (X
x =1 !)(x 1

e x 1
E (X ) = e
x =1 !)(x 1

x 1 2
x 1
= e = + + = + .......
x =0 !x !0! 1! 2 !)x =1 ( x 1

E (X ) = e e = :
E (X ) = = :

~ ~ 86
 V ( X ) =

V (X ) = 2 = E (X 2 ) [ E (X )]
2

e x
E (X 2 ) = x 2f (x ) = x 2
x =0 x =0 x!

x 2 = x (x 1) + x

e x
E (X 2 ) = [ x (x 1) + x ]
x =0 x!

e x
e x
= [ x (x 1)] + x
x =0 x! x =0 x!

e x
= + E (x ) :
x = 0 ( x 2)!

x 2
= e 2 + E (x )
x =0 (x 2)!
= e 2 e + E (x )
E (X 2 ) = 2 +

V (X ) = 2 = E (X 2 ) [ E (X )]
2

V (X ) = 2 + [ ] :
2

V (X ) =

~ 87 ~
 )( ) : (
) (






: 250
:

]]0, 2] ]2, 4 ] ]4, 6] ]6,8] ]8,10] ]10,12

10 25 60 70 80 5
10 24 60 70 80 5
250 250 250 250 250 250

) 5 20(

] ]4, 6
60
=P
250

]]0,12


) (
) 5 20(

~ ~ 88


:
) ( , P () , P X
] X ( ) = [a , b
f : X ( ) [ 0,1] : X

x =d
: x [c , d ] [a , b ] : ) P (c x d ) = f (x
x =c
x =b
P ( ) = f (x ) = 1
x =a

y
:
] x X ( ) = [a, b f (x ) 0

] x [c , d ) A
k =d

x
= ) P (A ) f (x
k =c
a c d b

d
P ( A ) = f ( x )dx
c

f x x x = c , x = d
b
P ( ) = lim f ( x )dx
b +
X () = = 1
a a

b
P ( ) = f ( x )dx = 1 ] X () = [a , b
a

:
b
] X () = [a , b E ( X ) = xf ( x )dx =
a

b
X () = E ( x ) = lim xf ( x )dx =
b +
a a

~ ~ 89
 f ( x ) = x 0 x 2 ) E (X
: X
2
2 2
1
E (X ) = x 3 = ) E (X x dx = ) E (X xf (x )dx :
2

3 0 0 0

2
2
1 2 2
( E (X ) = 3 20 f (x )dx = 2 x = 1 ) :
0

1
) E (X 1 x e = ) f (x : X
x
e
1
E (X ) = [x ]1 = e 1 = ) E (X x x dx :
e

1
e e
1
( = f (x )dx dx = [ln x ]1 = 1 ) :
e

1 1
x

:
:
] X () = [a , b
b
E ( X ) = : = ) V (X ) (x
2
f ( x )dx
a

X () =
b
V ( x ) = lim ( x ) f ( x )dx E ( X ) =
2

b +
a a
= ) V (X
:

] [1
.
] [ 2 .
] [3


.

~ ~ 90


X
1 x 2
1
= ) f (x e 2
:
2

3.1416 , e 2.7183

V (X ) = 2 E (X ) =
X

1 x 2
1
= ) f (x e 2

f (x 2

)( B A )(
x
+

x = ] [1 )(
] [ 2 x x
] [3 x = 2

] [ 4 :
1 1
+ , ,
2 e 2 e
] [5
] [ 6 :
68.27 0 0 x = , x = +
95.5 0 0 x = 2 , x = + 2
99.7 0 0 x = 3 , x = + 3

~ ~ 91

1 6
x +y
x y X :
2
x y
)(0 x , y . x , y .
2
. X
X

:

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0 0 1 0 2 0
2 0 2 0 3 0 4
3 1 0 0 0 1 0
4 0 3 0 4 0 5
5 2 0 1 0 0 0
6 0 4 0 5 0 6

}X ( ) = {0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5, 6
X:

xk 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
21 4 3 2 3 2 1
f (x k ) 36 36 36 36 36 36 36

7
E (X ) = x k f (x k )
k =1

4 6 6 12 10 6
E (X ) = 0 + + + + + +
36 36 36 36 36 36
44 11
= ) E (X =
36 9

~ ~ 92
 : ) ( ) ( 3
1 , 2 , 3 ) ( ) ( 4 2 , 3 , 4 , 5
) ( ) ( :
(1 .
3 (2 : A
5 : B
A , B .
) ( x (3 ) (
X : y
x + y
x , y :
X (x , y ) = 2
| | x y x , y :

X
X
:
= {(1, 2 ) , (1,3) , (1, 4 ) , (1,5) , ( 2, 2 ) , ( 2,3) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 2,5 ) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3,3) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 3,5)} (1

})A = {(1,3), (2,3), (3,3), (3, 2), (3, 4), (3,5

})B = {(2, 4), (3, 4), (3,3), (1,5), (2,5)(3, 5
3 1 6 1 6 1
= ) P (A B = = ) P (B = ) = P (A = (2
12 4 12 2 12 2
B A P ( A B ) = P ( A ) .P ( B ) :
(3
X 2 3 4 5

} X ( ) = {0,1, 2,3
1 1 2 3 3
2 0 1 2 3
3 1 0 1 2

xk 0 1 2 3
X:

2 4 3 3
f (x k ) 12 12 12 12
4
= ) E (X x k f (x k )
k =1

0 4 6 9 19
= + + + =
12 12 12 12 12

~ ~ 93
 :
1 1

6 12
A B
:
2
= ) P (A : A
3
3
B = ) P ( A
4
(1
(2
(3
(4 X .
X
X

:
} = {A B , A B , A B , A B
: A B A B A B
1
= )P ( A B ) = P ( A ) P ( B )........ (1
12
1
) P ( A B ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) = ........... ( 2
6
1 1
= )P ( A ) P ( B ) + P ( A ) P ( B + ) (1 ) ( 2
12 6
3 1 1
= ) P (B = ) (P (A ) + P (A ))P (B P (A ) + P (A ) = 1 = ) P (B
4 4 4
2 1 1 1
= ) P ( A = ) P ( A = ) P (B ) ( 2
3 4 6 4
:
(1 A B : } {A B , A B , A B
) P ( A B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) P (A B
11 2 3 2 3
= ) P (A B = ) P (A B +
12 3 4 3 4
(2 ) ) P ( A | ( A B

~ ~ 94
 )) P ( A ( A B
= )) P ( A | ( A B
)) P (( A B
) P (A
= )) P ( A | ( A B
8
= A A B
) P (A B 11
(3 H H = {( A B ) , ( A B )} :

) P (A H
= ) P (A | H :A H = A B
) P (H
)P ( A B
=
) P ( A B ) + P ( A B
) P ( A ) P (B
=
) P ( A ) P (B ) + P ( A ) P (B
2 1

3 4 2
= =
2 1 1 3 5
+
3 4 3 4
X ( ) = {0,1.2} (4
1
= )f (0 {X = 0} = A B
12
5
= ) f (1) = P (H {X = 1} = {A B , A B } = H
12
2 3 6
{X = 2} = A B = = )f (2
3 4 12
X:

3 xk 0 1 2
E (X ) ) = x k .f ( x k
k =1 1 5 6
f (x k ) 12 12 12
0 + 5 + 12 17
= ) E (X =
12 12

~ ~ 95
 f (x k ) x k f (x k ) (x k ) ) E (x (x k E (x ) ) f ( x k )
2 2
xk
1 289 289
0 12 0 144 1728
5 5 25 125
1 12 12 144 1728
6 49 294
2 12 1 144 1728
3
708 59

k =1 1
= ) E (x
17
12
= ) V (X =
1728 144
3
V (X ) = (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2

k =1

59
= ) V (X
144
59
= x ) x = V ( X
12

) (10 ) 5 3 2 ( .
:
(1
(2

(3
.
X . X
(4
X

:
(1 A
) (
5 3 2 3
= ) P (A =
10 10 10 100
(2 B

B
) (

~ ~ 96
 3 3 3
5 3 2 4
= P (B ) = + +
10 10 10 25
C (3 D
) D (
C D : ) ( ) (
3
7 657
= P ( D ) = 1 P ( D ) = 1
10 1000
) P (C D
= ) P (C | D
) P (D
2
5 2 3 3 2
6 + 3 234
= 10 10
10 10 10
3
=
7 657
1
10
X ( ) = {0 , 1 , 2,3} (4
3
8 64
= f ( 0) = } : {X = 0
10 125
2
2 8 48
= f (1) = 3 } : {X = 1
10 10 125
2
2 8 12
= f ( 2) = 3 } : {X = 2
10 10 125
3

f ( 3 ) =
2
=
1 } : {X = 3
10 125
X:

xk 0 1 2 3
64 48 12 1
f (x k )
125 125 125 125
4
E (X ) = xk f (x i )
k1

48 24 3 75 3
E (X ) =0+ + + = =
125 125 125 125 5

~ ~ 97
 : n 1 . 2
. :
(1 A
1
= ) P (A . n (a
2
2
= ) P (A (b n
3
(c n ) P (A n ) P (A
(2 ) ( n = 6 X
X
X
.
:
(1

1
= ) P (A A 1 2 (a
2
:
)C ( n , 2) + C (9 n , 2
= ) P (A
)C (9 , 2
) n (n 1) (9 n )(8 n
+
= ) P (A 2 2
36
n 2 9n + 36
=
36
:
n 9n + 36 1
2
= }: n {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7,8,9
36 2
n 2 9n + 18 = 0 :
(n 6)( n 3) = 0 : n = 6 , n = 3
n 2 9n + 36 2 2
= = ) P (A (b
36 3 3
n 2 9n + 12 = 0 :
9 33
= n {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7,8,9} : n
2

~ ~ 98
 ) P (A ) = f (n (c

) f : {n1 , n 2 ,................, n r } , n k f (n k : : n k Z

) x f (x ] [ n1 , n r f

] f (a) : a [ n1 , n r f n k a
f ) ( a
} n k {n1 , n 2 ,................, n r

] f (b ) : b [ n1 , n r f n k b
f ) ( b
} n k {n1 , n 2 ,................, n r

n 2 9n + 36
) = f ( n
36
x 2 9x + 36
= ) f (x ]: x [1,9
f(n 36
4 ][1,9 f
2x 9 7
3
= ) f ( x = ) f (1 , f (9) = 1
36 9
2
9 7 9
=) ( f ) f (x x = = 4.5
1
2 16 2
n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 9
-1 x 1 2 9
-2

) f (x 0 +
7 7 1
) f (x 9 16
1 n = 9 } {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7,8,9
) P ( A 1 n = 9
9 7
= x } {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7,8,9
2 16
9 9
= x } {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7,8,9 n = 4 , n = 5 = x
2 2
4
= ) f (4) = f (5) = P (A ) P (A
9
~ ~ 99
 n 2 9n + 36
}n {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7,8,9 : ) = f ( n
36


9 63 9 81
(n )2 + (n )2 + 36
2 ) 4 = f ( n 2 4 ) = f (n
36 36
9 63
(n ) 2 = 36 f ( n )
2 144
n = 9
2
9 9
=n } n = {1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6, 7,8,9 } n {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7,8,9
2 2
4
n = 5 , n = 4 ) P ( A = ) P ( A
9
7
= )f (1 , f (9) = 1
9
n ) P ( A n = 9 f (9) = P ( A ) = 1
) P ( A } n {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6, 7,8,9 n
) P ( A
}{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
) n (
(2 ) X ( ) = {2,3, 4} ( n = 6
) C ( 6, 2 5
= )f ( 2 = } : {X = 2 : 1
) C ( 9, 2 12
} : {X = 3 1 : 2
)C ( 6,1) .C ( 3,1 6
= )f ( 3 =
) C ( 9, 2 12
) C ( 3, 2 1
= )f ( 4 = : } : {X = 4 2
) C ( 9, 2 12
X:

xk 2 3 4
:
5 6 1
f (x k ) 12 12 12
3
E (X ) = x k .f (x k ) :
k =1
10 + 18 + 4 8
= ) E (x =
12 3
~ ~ 100
 : 30 0 0
60 0 0 10 0 0
A B
100 200

(1 300
(2 ) (
(3
(4 X
X

9 :
= ) P (B | A
10 B | A
7
= ) P (A (1 300
10 A 1
= ) P (B | A A B
10 B | A
)P ( A B ) = P (A ) P (B | A
3 6 9
4 = =
= )P ( B | A 10 10 50
10 B | A
3
(2
= )P ( A
10
A
A B
= )P ( B | A
6 ) P ( A B ) = P (A ) P (B | A
10 B | A
7 9 63
= =
10 10 100
) P (A ) P (B | A
= )P (A | B (3 :
)P (A ) P (B | A ) + P (A ) P (B | A
7 1

10 10 7
= )P (A | B =
7 1 3 6 25
+
10 10 10 10
(4
} X ( ) = {0,100, 200,300

~ ~ 101
 63
= ) f ( 0 ) = P (A ) P ( B | A
100
7
= ) f (100 ) = P (A ) P (B | A
100
12
= )f ( 200 ) = P (A ) P (B | A
100
18
= )f ( 300 ) = P (A ) P (B | A
100

xk 0 100 200 300

63 7 12 18
f (x k ) 100 100 100 100
4
E (X ) = x k f (x k )
k =1

0 + 7 + 12 + 18
= ) E (X = 0.37
100
1, 2,3, 4,5, 6 :
1
P1 , P2 , P3 , P4 , P5 , P6
12
(1 P1 , P2 , P3 , P4 , P5 , P6
(2 A
B A B
3 (3 X
5

2 1
4
6 X

:
: U n = U 1 + (n 1)r :
n
= Sn n U 1(U 1 + U n ) :
2
1 1
= Un = U 1 + 5r , n = 6 (1
12 12

~ ~ 102
 6 1
= S6 ) ( +U n : S 6 = P ( ) = 1
2 12
1 1
3( + + 5r ) = 1
12 12
1
+ 15r = 1
2
1
=r
30
1 5 1 1 7 1 2 9
= P1 = = , P2 = + , = P3 = + :
12 60 12 30 60 12 30 60
1 3 11 13 15
= P4 = + , = P5 , = P6
12 30 60 60 60
}A B = {3,5 B = {1,3,5} }A = {2,3,5 (2
9 29
= P (B ) = P1 + P3 + P5 = P (A ) = P2 + P3 + P5
20 60
29 9 87 11
= = ) P (A ) P ( B = P (A B ) = P3 + P5
60 20 400 30
A , B ) P (A B ) P (A ) P (B
X () = {1, 2,3,5} (3
12
= f (1) = P1 + P2 }: {X = 1} = {1, 2
60
11
= f ( 4 ) = P4 }: {X = 2} = {4
60
24
= f ( 3) = P3 + P6 }: {X = 3} = {3, 6
60
13
= f ( 5 ) = P5 }: {X = 5} = {5
60

xk 1 2 3 5
12 11 24 13
f (x k ) 60 60 60 60
4
E (X ) = x k f (x k )
k =1

12 22 72 65
=+ + +
60 60 60 60
171 57
= ) E (X =
60 20
:

~ ~ 103
 f (x k ) x k f (x k ) (x k ) ) E (X (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2 2
xk
12 12 1369 16428
1 60 60 400 24000
11 22 289 3179
2 60 60 400 24000
24 72 9 216
3 60 60 400 24000
13 65 1849 24037
5 60 60 400 24000
r
57

k =1 1
= ) E (X
20 ) V (X
4
V (X ) = (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2

k =1

16428 + 3179 + 216 + 24037

= ) V (X = 1.8275
24000
x = V ( X x 1.35 )

1, 2,3, 4 :
1
P1 , P2 , P3 , P4
2
3 (1 P1 , P2 , P3 , P4
1
2 (2
(3 X
m
3
4
2 m m
34
= ) E ( X
15

: V n = V 1 q n 1 :
1 q n
S n =V 1 n
1q
S n = P () = 1

~ ~ 104
 15
1 4
16 1
2
1 = V 1 1 = V 1
1 1
1 2
2
1 2 4 8
= V4 = V3 = V2 = V1 :
15 15 15 15
: A }. A = {1,3
: B }. A B = {3
) P (B | A
) P (A B
= ) P (B | A
) P (A
2
1 8 2 10
= P ( A ) = + = P (B | A ) = 15
10 5 15 15 15
15
} X () = {1,3, m
8
= f (1) = P12 }: {X = 1} = {1
15
2
= f ( 3) = P3 }: {X = 3} = {3
15
5
= f ( 5 ) = P2 + P4 }: {X = m } = {2, 4
15

xk 1 3 m
8 2 5
f (x k ) 15 15 15
3
E (X ) = x k . f ( x k ) :
k =1

8 + 6 + 5m
= ) E (X
15
14 + 5m
= ) E (X
15

34
= ) E (X :
15
14 + 5m 34
m =4 =
15 15

~ ~ 105


f (x k ) x k f (x k ) (x k ) ) E (x (x k E (x ) ) f ( x k )
2 2
xk
8 8 49 392
1 15 15 225 3375
2 6 1521 3042
3 15 15 225 3375
5 20 1600 8000
4 15 15 225 3375
3
34 11434

k =1 1
= ) E (x
15
= ) V (X
3375
3
V (X ) = (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2

k =1

11434
= ) V (X 3,39
3375
x = V ( X x 1,84 )

n

: A B
3
= ) P ( B | A . n
5
: n X
X
X
.

~ ~ 106
 :
) P (A B
= ) P (B | A
) P (A
2
n +4 2 1

3 = 5 6
5 ) ( n + 2 n +2
3

2 2 1
+
n +4 5 n +4 5 6
1
1
= ) P (B | A 3
2

6 1
6
5 +
5 n +4 3
6
3n + 12
=
22 + 3n

3
2 = ) P ( B | A
5 5
3n + 12 3
3 =
5 ) ( 3 22 + 3n 5
3
5
15n + 60 = 66 + 9n
1
2
n = 1

6
5

:
5
6

}X () = {0,1, 2
3 2 6 18
= )f (0 = =
5 5 25 75
3 3 2 1 32
= f (1) = +
5 5 5 6 75
2 5 1 25
= = = )f (2
5 6 3 75

xk 0 1 2
18 32 25
f (x k ) 75 75 75

~ ~ 107
 3
E (X ) = xk f (x k )
k =1

32 50
=0+ +
75 75
82
= ) E (X
75

) (7 } {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7
:
(1 2
(2
2 .
(3 X .
X
X

(4
:
A (1 2
A 2
)C ( 6, 2 )C (1,1 15 3 1 6 5 3
= ) P (A = = = P ( A ) = 3 2
)C ( 7 , 3 35 7 7 6 5 7
) P (A B
= ) P (A | B B (2
) P (B

B ) (
) (

) C ( 4,3) + C ( 4,1)C ( 3, 2 16 4 3 2 3 2 4 16
= ) P (B = = ) P (B = + 3
)C (7,3 35 7 6 5 7 6 5 35

A B 2
2

~ ~ 108
 )C (1,1) C ( 2,1) C ( 4,1 8 1 2 4 8
= ) P (B = = P ( A B ) = 6
)C (7,3 35 7 6 5 35
8
1
= P ( A | B ) = 35
16 2
35
X ( ) = {3 , 4 ,5 , 6, 7} (3

}{1,2 {X = 3} : 3
C (1,1)C (2,2) 1 1 2 1 1
= )f (3 = = f (3) = 3
)C (7,3 35 7 6 5 35

}{1,2,3 {X = 4} : 4
C (1,1)C (3,2) 3 1 3 2 3
= )f (4 = = f (4) = 3
)C (7,3 35 7 6 5 35

}{1,2,3,4 {X = 5} : 5
C (1,1)C (4,2) 6 1 4 3 6
= )f (5 = = f (5) = 3
)C (7,3 35 7 6 5 35

{X = 6} : 6
C (1,1)C (5,2) 10 1 5 4 10
= )f (6 = = f (6) = 3 } {1,2,3,4,5
)C (7,3 35 7 6 5 35

{X = 7} : 7
C (1,1)C (6,2) 15 1 5 4 15
= )f (7 = = f (7) = 3 } {1,2,3,4,5,6
)C (7,3 35 7 6 5 35

xk 3 4 5 6 7
1 3 6 10 15
) f (x k 35 35 35 35 35
5
E (X ) ) = x i .f ( x i
k =1

3 + 12 + 30 + 60 + 105
= ) E ( X E ( X ) = 6
35

~ ~ 109
 f (x k ) x k f (x k ) (x k ) ) E (X (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2 2
xk
1 3 9
3 35 35 9 35
3 12 12
4 35 35 4 35
6 30 6
5 35 35 1 35
10 60
6 35 35 0 0
15 105 15
7 35 35 1 35
5

k =1 1 E (X ) = 6 ) V (X
4
V (X ) = (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2

k =1

9 + 12 + 6 + 0 + 15 6
V (X =) =
35 5
6
= x ) x = V ( X
5

(4 :
A 2

A 2

2 2

: )(2

1 6 6 1 1 6 1 1 1 127
= ) P (A = 3+ 3+
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 343

A 2

)P ( A ) = 1 P (A
3
6 216 127
P (A ) = 1 = 1 =
7 343 343
~ ~ 110
 ) P (A B
= ) P (A | B B
) P (B

4 4 4 3 3 4 172
= ) P (B = + 3
7 7 7 7 7 7 343

A B 2

2 2

1 2 4 1 1 4 60
= ) P (A B = 6 + 3
7 7 7 7 7 7 343

60
15
= P ( A | B ) = 343
172 43
343

}X ( ) = {1.2,3 , 4 ,5 ,6, 7
1 1 1 1
= = )f (1 {X = 1} : 1
7 7 7 343

{X = 1} : 2 1

2 1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
= f (2) = 3 + 3 +
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 343

}{1,2 {X = 3} : 3

}{1,2 3

~ ~ 111
 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 19
= f (3) = 3 + 3 +
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 343

}{1,2,3 {X = 4} : 4

}{1,2,3 4

1 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 1 37
= f (4) = 3 + 3 +
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 343

}{1,2,3,4 {X = 5} : 5

}{1,2,3,4 5

1 4 4 1 1 4 1 1 1 61
= f (5) = 3 + 3 +
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 343

{X = 6} : 6

} {1,2,3,4,5 6

} {1,2,3,4,5 6

1 5 5 1 1 5 1 1 1 91
= f (6) = 3 + 3 +
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 343

{X = 7} : 7

} {1,2,3,4,5,6 7

} {1,2,3,4,5,6 7

1 6 6 1 1 6 1 1 1 127
= f (7) = 3 + 3 +
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 343

~ ~ 112
 xk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 7 19 37 61 91 127
f (x k ) 343 343 343 343 343 343 343

7
E (X ) = x i .f ( x i )
k =1

1960 40 1 + 14 + 57 + 148 + 305 + 546 + 889

E (X )= = E ( X )=
343 7 343

f (x k ) x k f (x k ) (x k E (X ) ) (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2 2
xk
2
1 1 40 1089 1089
1 =
1 343 343 7 49 16807
2
7 1 40 676 4732
2 =
2 343 343 7 49 16807
2
19 1 40 361 6859
3 =
3 343 343 7 49 16807
2
37 1 40 144 5328
4 =
4 343 343 7 49 16807
2
61 1 40 25 1225
5 =
5 343 343 7 49 16807
2
91 1 40 4 364
6 =
6 343 343 7 49 16807
2
127 1 40 81 10287
7 =
7 343 343 7 49 16807
7

k =1 1
E (X ) =
40
7
V (X ) =
29884
16807
4
V (X ) = (x k E (X ) ) f ( x k )
2

k =1

9 + 12 + 6 + 0 + 15
V (X )= = 1.778
35
x = 7.9 x = V ( X )

~ 113 ~
 40 0 0

8 :

: p q :

3 2
= q n = 8 = p
5 5

A :

2 3
8 0
256
= P (A) = C (8, 0)
5 5 390625

2 3
1 7
34992
P (B ) = C (8, 1)
5 = 390625
5

2
3 2 3 2 3 2 3
5 3 6 2 7 1 8 0
P (C ) = C (8, 3)
+ C (8, 2) + C (8, 1) + C (8, 0)
5
5 5 5 5 5 5 5
48384 16128 3072 256
= + + +
390625 390625 390625 390625
67840
= ) P (C = 0.1736704
390625

~ ~ 114


2
E (X ) = n p = 8 = 3.2
5
48
= V (X ) = n p q
25
4
= ) x = V (X 3
5

2013 \ 8 \ 5 1434 27

:
1951
1975
2002
2011

963 15 220723 0965728199 0933337384 : :

~ ~ 115