Académique Documents
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INVESTOR OUTLOOK:
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
H1 2017
Private Equity Hedge Funds Real Estate Infrastructure
Private Debt Natural Resources
CONTENTS
Foreword 2 5: INFRASTRUCTURE
Introduction 42
1: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS Satisfaction with Infrastructure 43
Keynote Address - Amundi 4 Evolution of the Investor Universe 44
Participation in Alternative Assets 6 Investor Activity in 2017 46
Performance Expectations 7 Key Issues in 2017 48
Fund Terms and Alignment of Interests 8 Appetite for Alternative Structures 49
Fund Selection and Marketing 10 How Investors Source and Select Infrastructure Funds 50
4: REAL ESTATE
Introduction 32
Satisfaction with Real Estate 33
Evolution of the Investor Universe 34
Investor Activity in 2017 36
Key Issues in 2017 37
Appetite for First-Time Funds and Alternative Structures 38
How Investors Source and Select Real Estate Funds 39
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1
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
FOREWORD
T he alternative assets industry is bigger than ever, with more than $7.7tn in hedge fund and private capital assets managed globally,
having grown by $300bn during 2016. Participation in multiple alternative asset classes is now the norm for the majority of
institutional investors, with alternatives portfolios becoming more and more diverse.
Institutional investors face a number of challenges today. While the performance of most private capital funds in 2016 met or exceeded
investors expectations, there are concerns about asset pricing and whether strong performance can be maintained. Returns from hedge
funds improved in 2016 but most investors still reported that hedge fund performance fell short of their expectations, with performance
and fees remaining key concerns. The more turbulent geopolitical landscape we see today only creates further uncertainty.
Most investors remain below their long-term target allocation to alternatives, and so have capital to put to work, but across alternative
asset classes respondents stated it is harder to find attractive opportunities now than a year ago. There are almost 18,000 alternatives
funds open for investment, but for investors, finding the true outperformers is a difficult prospect, particularly when the majority are
finding that the marketing documents they receive are not meeting their needs.
For fund managers, standing out amid the unprecedented level of competition is a challenging prospect, and it is more important than
ever to understand the changing requirements of the investor community. This report brings together the results of a series of in-depth
interviews with over 500 institutional investors, conducted by Preqins analysts for the latest editions of the Preqin Global Alternatives
Reports. We hope it helps provide insight into institutional investors portfolios and future plans, their confidence in different asset
classes and the challenges they face.
Preqins online services are indispensable fundraising and investor relations tools for any firm managing or looking to manage
institutional capital. Thousands of professionals use Preqin every day to source new investors, access exclusive information on new RFPs
and fund searches, monitor the market and track competing firms.
To find out how Preqins services can help your business in the coming months, please do not hesitate to contact at us at
info@preqin.com or at our New York, London, Singapore, Hong Kong or San Francisco offices.
7% INSURANCE COMPANY
7% ENDOWMENT PLAN
5% FOUNDATION
REST OF WORLD 5% INVESTMENT COMPANY
5% BANK
8%
13% OTHER
understanding of European assets and These local banks introduce asset local companies. The current low return
markets. managers to small and medium-sized environment is driving investor demand
enterprises looking for private debt for these high-yield, inflation-linked
The European market remains highly and equity investors. And if a family-run returns these deals provide. And supply
fragmented where local knowledge and business is looking for private financing to is growing, as companies look for a new
contacts are vital. Amundi is the largest fund an Asian expansion, then our global source of finance as banks are less able to
asset manager in the region and has long- reach helps the firm to achieve this goal. provide loans.
term business and banking connections
which give us access to assets and deals AIMING TO OVERCOME TRANSPARENCY Asset managers have a central role to play
that rivals struggle to find. AND SOURCING ISSUES in this trend, which we think will persist
Transparency and sourcing issues in over the medium term.
At the same time, covering a wide breadth private markets mean only asset managers
of asset classes creates synergies between that can take advantage of a global
our specialized teams, enabling us to scale and a local footprint can align their
discover new investment opportunities interests more closely with those of
and to source deals. For example, there are investors. Only glocal managers, rather
synergies between Amundis 500bn fixed than boutique specialist players, can
income and 9bn private debt businesses. ensure investors get access to good deals
at fair value, and soon after the capital is
A good illustration of this glocal ability is committed.
when asset managers benefit from deep
connections with a large network of local Asset managers with global scale and
banks throughout a region, for example, local knowledge are perfectly positioned
in Europe. to work with banks to provide finance to
AMUNDI
Publicly traded since November 2015, Amundi is the largest European Asset Manager in terms of AUM, with over 1,000bn worldwide
(*). Headquartered in Paris, France, Amundi has six investment hubs located in the worlds key financial centres, and offers a
combination of research depth and market experience that has earned the confidence of its clients. Amundi is the trusted partner of
100 million retail clients, 1,000 institutional clients and 1,000 distributors in more than 30 countries, and designs innovative, high-
performing products and services for these types of clients tailored specifically to their needs and risk profile.
End of September 2016 Amundi has created a dedicated platform for real and alternative assets. Real estate, private debt, private
equity, infrastructure and alternative multi-management are now all part of a single integrated business line, bringing together some
200 experts in origination, structuring and management of these asset classes worth more than 36bn in assets under management
(**). Through this new platform, Amundi offers institutional or individual investors the opportunity to directly invest in the full range
of real assets through dedicated or commingled vehicles (funds, co-investment, multi-management or advisory mandates).
www.amundi.com
(*) Amundi figures as of 30 September 2016. No.1 European asset manager based on global assets under management (AUM) and the main headquarters being based in Continental
Europe - Source IPE Top 400 asset managers published in June 2016 and based on AUM as at December 2015.
(**) As at 31 December 2016.
5
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
PARTICIPATION IN
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS BY NUMBER OF ALTERNATIVE ASSET CLASSES INVESTED IN
None One Two Three Four Five Six
Private Equity
Less than 5%
Hedge Funds
5-9.9%
Real Estate
10-14.9%
Infrastructure
15-19.9%
Private Debt
20% or More
Natural Resources
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Proportion of Respondents
PERFORMANCE EXPECTATIONS
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS GENERAL PERCEPTION OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR VIEWS ON ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
ALTERNATIVE ASSET CLASSES PERFORMANCE
Exceeded
Hedge Funds
12 Months
Met
Real Estate
Infrastructure
The 2017 Preqin Global Alternatives Reports are the most detailed and comprehensive
reviews of the alternative assets industry available, offering exclusive insight into the
alternative assets. intelligent data.
2017
PREQIN GLOBAL
latest trends and developments. REAL ESTATE
REPORT
Assembled by our dedicated teams of multilingual analysts based around the world, the 2017
PREQIN GLOBAL
HEDGE FUND 2017
alternative assets. intelligent data.
Reports feature expert commentary, key trends from recent years, historical data, league REPORT PREQIN GLOBAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
REPORT
tables, survey results and more, covering the private equity & venture capital, hedge ISBN: 978-1-907012-99-0
$175 / 125 / 150
www.preqin.com
fund, real estate and infrastructure asset classes. Also in this series: the 2017 Preqin 2017
alternative assets. intelligent data.
Global Private Debt Report and the 2017 Preqin Global Natural Resources Report are PREQIN GLOBAL
PRIVATE EQUITY &
VENTURE CAPITAL
due for release in March 2017.
ISBN: 978-1-907012-98-3
$175 / 125 / 150
REPORT
www.preqin.com
ISBN: 978-1-912116-00-3
$175 / 125 / 150
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For more information, to download sample pages or to order your copy, please visit:
ISBN: 978-1-907012-97-6
$175 / 125 / 150
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www.preqin.com/reports
7
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
66%
32%
69 %
61 %
63 %
59 %
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR VIEWS ON CHANGES IN PREVAILING FUND TERMS OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS
FREQUENCY WITH WHICH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS HAVE DECIDED NOT TO INVEST IN A FUND DUE TO THE PROPOSED
TERMS AND CONDITIONS
Private Equity
Hedge Funds Frequently
Real Estate
Occasionally
Infrastructure
Private Debt Never
Natural Resources
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Proportion of Respondents
With teams strategically based in industry hubs across the globe, Preqin offers unrivalled, round-the-clock customer service
and data request support through our Preqin Avail service.
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YOUR
INVESTMENT
MANAGER
YOUR
TRUSTED
PARTNER
amundi.com
Amundi perimeter - No. 1 European asset manager based on global assets under management (AUM) and the main headquarters being based in continental Europe - Source IPE Top
400 asset managers published in June 2016 and based on AUM as at December 2015. This material does not constitute an oer to buy or a solicitation to sell, nor does it constitute
public advertising for any product, nancial service or investment advice. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up and outcomes are not guaranteed.
Investors may not get back their original investment. Promotional material issued by Amundi Asset Management, Socit Anonyme with a registered capital of 746,262,615 - Portfolio
Manager regulated by AMF under number GP 04000036 - Registered oce: 90 boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris, France - 437 574 452 RCS Paris - amundi.com - January 2017. |
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR VIEWS ON THE FREQUENCY WITH WHICH MARKETING DOCUMENTS MEET THEIR NEEDS
SATISFACTION WITH
PRIVATE EQUITY
I nstitutional investors surveyed by Preqin
in December 2016 expressed a high level
of satisfaction with private equity: 84% of
In terms of longer-term performance,
investors are even more positive: 40%
reported that their private equity
ability of private equity to achieve
portfolio objectives was unchanged or had
increased over the past 12 months.
investors reported a positive view of the investments had exceeded expectations
asset class at present, up from 59% two over the past three years, second only to Investor satisfaction with private equity is
years earlier (Fig. 2.1). private real estate (42%). Despite this, the driving larger sums of capital to the asset
proportion of investors that reported that class as investors look to maintain and
Ninety-five percent of investors reported their confidence in the ability of private increase their allocations. Over the longer
that their private equity fund investments equity to achieve portfolio objectives term, almost half (48%) of respondents
had met or exceeded expectations in had fallen over the past year increased plan to increase their allocations to private
2016, including 24% for which they had from 9% to 14% (Fig. 2.3), possibly due to equity, while a further 46% will maintain
exceeded expectations (Fig. 2.2). The 5% concerns about whether fund managers their allocations these are some of the
that felt that their investments had fallen can continue to deliver strong returns at highest levels seen over the past six years
short of expectations was the smallest a time of high valuations. Nevertheless, (Fig. 2.4).
proportion in the past six years. the vast majority (86%) of fund managers
reported that their confidence in the
Fig. 2.1: Investors General Perception of the Private Equity Fig. 2.2: Investor Views on Private Equity Portfolio Performance
Industry, 2014 - 2016 over the Past 12 Months Relative to Expectations, 2011 - 2016
100% 100%
6% 11% 13% 17%
90% 90% 24%
30%
80% 80%
Proportion of Respondents
Proportion of Respondents
59% Exceeded
70% 70%
65% Positive Expectations
60% 60%
84% 75%
Neutral 74% Met
50% 50% 77%
75% Expectations
40% 40% 64% 71%
Negative
Fallen Short of
30% 30%
Expectations
33%
20% 29% 20%
52%
Proportion of Respondents
13
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
90%
6%
3%
80% 43% 40%
8%
Proportion of Respondents
70% Q1 2017
More Capital
60% 7% Q2 2017
50% Same Amount
of Capital Q3 2017
40%
45% 49% Less Capital Q4 2017
30%
Fig. 2.7: Number of Private Equity Fund Commitments Investors Fig. 2.8: Amount of Fresh Capital Investors Plan to Invest in
Plan to Make over the Next 12 Months Private Equity Funds over the Next 12 Months
13%
26% Less than $50mn
29% 1-2 Investments
7%
$50-99mn
3-4 Investments
52% $100-349mn
5-6 Investments
18%
$350-499mn
7 or More Investments
Source: Preqin Private Equity Online Source: Preqin Private Equity Online
STRATEGIES AND
GEOGRAPHIES TARGETED
A s investors seek to commit greater
sums of capital to private equity over
the coming year, they continue to identify
North America is considered the most
promising region for private equity
investment: 61% of investors believe it
21% of investors saw Asia as among the
most favourable regions for private equity
investment. Eighteen percent of investors
small to mid-market buyout funds as the presents the best opportunities at present, plan to increase their allocation to the
most attractive fund type, with 58% of followed by Europe (44%, Fig. 2.10). In region over the coming year, compared
investors believing they present the best terms of allocations, however, a greater with only 5% that plan to decrease it.
opportunities (Fig. 2.9). This is up from proportion of LPs plan to increase their
50% in the H2 2016 Investor Outlook, allocation to Europe (31%) than North Emerging markets and the Rest of World
but remains below the figure for H1 2016 America (25%) over the coming year, region were seen as offering the best
(61%). Venture capital followed, cited by with 4% and 7% planning to reduce their opportunities by 19% and 7% of investors
28% of respondents, although this has allocations to these regions respectively respectively. According to investors
fallen from 36% in June 2016, possibly due (Fig. 2.11). currently active in emerging markets, the
to investor concerns about overinflated most promising countries/regions are
prices for venture capital companies and Outside the established private equity Emerging Asia (41%), China (39%) and
their potential impact on future returns. markets of North America and Europe, India (20%, Fig. 2.12).
Fig. 2.9: Fund Types* that Investors View as Presenting the Best Fig. 2.10: Regions* Investors View as Presenting the Best
Opportunities Opportunities
70%
Small to Mid-Market Buyout 58%
61%
60%
Venture Capital 28%
Proportion of Respondents
50%
Large to Mega Buyout 24% 44%
40%
Growth 18%
30%
Fund of Funds 16%
21% 19%
20%
Secondaries 14%
10% 7%
Other 7%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% North Europe Asia Rest of World Emerging
Proportion of Respondents America Markets
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
Fig. 2.11: Investors Plans for their Private Equity Allocations Fig. 2.12: Countries and Regions* within Emerging Markets that
over the Next 12 Months by Region Investors View as Presenting the Best Opportunities
100%
Emerging Asia 41%
90% 18% 20%
25% China
31% 39%
80%
Proportion of Respondents
*Respondents were not prompted to give their opinions on each fund type/region individually but to name those they felt best fit these categories; therefore, the results display the fund
types/regions at the forefront of investors minds at the time of the survey.
15
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
70%
60% 5%
51%
50%
41% 39%
40% Harder to Find Attractive
33%
29% Opportunities
30% 25%
20% 15% 15% 45% No Change
10%
0%
50% Easier to Find Attractive
Deal Flow
Fees
Volatility/Uncertainty
Valuations
Performance
Regulation
Transparency
Exit Environment
Public Perception of
in Global Markets
Opportunities
Industry
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
19% 54%
70% 63%
Geopolitical Landscape 24%
26% 60% Public Market
17% +2.1% to +4%
Central Bank Intervention 50%
23%
Brexit Vote 10% 37% Public Market
8% 40% 49%
43% 30% +2%
China Economic Slowdown 7% 30% 29%
10%
25%
Commodity PriceVolatility 4% 20% Same as Public
5% 18% 15% Market
10% 9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 7% 11% 12%
5% 8% 5% 6%
Proportion of Respondents 0% 2% 3%
2016 2017 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2011 - December 2016
Lock-up
Management Fees
GP Commitment
Hurdle Rate
Performance Fees
Period
Performance Fees
to Fund
at Fund Level
Never Decided
Amount
Not to Invest
64%
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
17
alternative assets. intelligent data.
18
SAMPLE PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTORS TO WATCH IN 2017
NEW MEXICO STATE INVESTMENT COUNCIL (SIC) VARMA MUTUAL PENSION INSURANCE COMPANY AP-FONDEN 2
Type: Sovereign Wealth Fund Type: Insurance Company Type: Public Pension Fund
Location: Santa Fe, US Location: Helsinki, Finland Location: Gothenburg, Sweden
Total Assets: $20.6bn Total Assets: 42bn Total Assets: SEK 305bn
Current/Target PE Allocation: 7.9%/12.0% Current/Target PE Allocation: 7.5%/7.5% Current/Target PE Allocation: 5.0%/5.0%
Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: $550-650mn Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: 700mn Amount Investing in Next 12 Months: SEK 1.68-3.36bn
Plans to invest in 5-8 funds across buyout, distressed Will target buyout funds with a focus on North America, Will invest in buyout, fund of funds, growth and venture
debt, fund of funds, growth and venture capital strategies Northern Europe and Asia. capital vehicles on a global scale (except emerging
specifically, in North America, Europe and Asia. markets).
DATA SOURCE:
Preqins Private Equity Online tracks over 6,400 institutional investors in private equity, providing detailed information on their plans for investment, allocations, full contact
information for key decision makers and more.
16%
Through internal
26%
Mainly internal
43%
Mix of internal
14%
Mainly approaches
1%
Solely from external
investment team or consultant and external from GPs or marketers, approaches
recommendations, some recommendations some internal
external approaches recommendations
180
fund proposals each year INVESTORS PLANS FOR THEIR NEXT
FUND COMMITMENT:
2018+
MOST IMPORTANT FAC TORS INVESTORS
6%
CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING FOR A PRIVATE
H2 2017
58%
of investors feel they get
EQUIT Y FUND MANAGER:
11%
insufficient information on track TEAM TRACK RECORD
record.
TEAM STRATEGY H1 2017
50% EXPERIENCE
8%
of proposals, on average, are sent
3
commitments to private equity
through for a second round of screening. funds each year.
19
alternative assets. intelligent data.
alternative assets. intelligent data.
2017
PREQIN GLOBAL
ALTERNATIVES
REPORTS
alternative assets. intelligent data.
2017
PREQIN GLOBAL
REAL ESTATE
REPORT
Data, intelligence and
insights on fundraising,
alternative assets. intelligent data.
2017
investor appetite, PREQIN GLOBAL
alternative assets. intelligent data.
classes:
alternative assets. intelligent data.
2017
PREQIN GLOBAL
PRIVATE EQUITY & PRIVATE EQUITY &
VENTURE CAPITAL
VENTURE CAPITAL
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HEDGE FUNDS
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REAL ESTATE
INFRASTRUCTURE
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Also in this series: The 2017 Preqin Global Private Debt Report and the 2017 Preqin Global Natural
Resources Report are due for release in March 2017.
SECTION THREE:
HEDGE FUNDS
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
73%
64%
SATISFACTION WITH
HEDGE FUNDS
T here are widespread levels of
dissatisfaction with returns: two out of
every three of the investors Preqin spoke
emerging markets investments meet their
expectations, which is unsurprising given
the Preqin Emerging Markets Hedge Fund
and discretionary CTA holdings
respectively did not meet expectations,
with the Preqin All-Strategies CTA
to revealed that hedge funds had not lived benchmark returned 9.96% in 2016 the benchmark returning seven percentage
up to their performance expectations second best performing top-level region points below that of the Preqin All-
in 2016 (Fig. 3.1) this is twice the level behind only North America (+10.20%). Strategies Hedge Fund benchmark in 2016.
reported in December 2015. This represents a sharp reversal from 2015,
when 91% of investors reported that their While some institutions have seen their
However, the term hedge fund emerging markets investments fell short hedge fund investments perform as
encompasses a broad array of fund types of expectations. The majority (69%) of expected in 2016, almost half (47%) of
and strategies, with managers using a investors also saw credit strategies the investors reported that their level of
myriad of instruments and trading styles second best performing top-level strategy confidence in hedge funds ability to
to generate returns for their investors. of 2016 meet their expectations over the achieve portfolio objectives had fallen
Therefore, the negative sentiment towards course of the year. (Fig. 3.3). Despite these concerns, more
hedge funds as a whole is not seen across respondents believe that the asset class
all hedge fund strategies (Fig. 3.2). Three- In contrast, 58% and 73% of surveyed will perform better in 2017 (28%) than
quarters of investors surveyed saw their investors in CTAs reported that systematic worse (19%, Fig. 3.4).
Fig. 3.1: Investor Views on Hedge Fund Portfolio Performance Fig. 3.2: Investor Views on Hedge Fund Portfolio Performance in
over the Past 12 Months Relative to Expectations, 2008 - 2016 2016 Relative to Expectations by Strategy
100% 3% 3% 100%
8%
Proportion of Respondents
Exceeded 50%
70% 57% Expectations 40%
53% 49% 57% 58% 71% 73% Fallen Short of
60% 30% 60%
62% 50% 53% 58% 58% Expectations
20% 40%
53% Met 31% 40%
50%
63% Expectations 10% 25%
0%
40%
Credit Strategies
Systematic CTAs
Event Driven Strategies
Activist
Fund of Hedge Funds
Emerging Markets
Macro Strategies
Relative Value Strategies
Equity Strategies
Discretionary CTAs
Multi-Strategy
Fig. 3.3: Investors Change in Confidence in the Ability of Hedge Fig. 3.4: Investors Performance Expectations for Hedge Funds in
Funds to Achieve Portfolio Objectives over the Past 12 Months 2017 Compared with 2016
10%
19%
Increased Confidence 28%
Will Perform Better
No Change in
47% Will Perform About
Confidence
the Same
Reduced Confidence
43% Will Perform Worse
53%
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
23
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
Fig. 3.5: Investor Views on the Macroeconomic Factors that Had the Biggest Impact on Their Hedge Fund Portfolios in 2016 vs.
Predictions for 2017
80%
70% 68%
Proportion of Respondents
60%
54% 52% 50% 48%
50% 45% 2016
39%
40%
32% 34%
2017
30% 25% 23% 25% 25%
20% 18%
14% 13%
10%
0%
StockMarket Low Interest Central Bank Currency Commodity Geopolitical UK's EU Slowdown in
Volatility Rates Intervention Market PriceVolatility Landscape Referendum China's
Volatility Economy
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
redeemed certain hedge fund holdings Fig. 3.6: Investor Views on the Key Issues Facing Hedge Funds in 2017
to allocate to other hedge funds in an
Performance 73%
attempt to rebalance their hedge fund
portfolio, some respondents planned to Fees 64%
allocate the redeemed capital elsewhere in
Perception of Industry by Public 49%
their portfolio. Fifteen percent of investors
said when they issued redemption Volatility/Uncertainty in Global Markets 42%
requests that they would allocate the Regulation 29%
returned capital to other areas of their
portfolio; a further 8% reported it was Governance 19%
specifically to direct this redeemed capital Transparency 18%
to other alternative assets such as private
Portfolio Management 18%
equity.
Notable Investors Exiting the Asset Class 10%
decisions to issue
redemptions in 2016 Fig. 3.7: Reasons Why Investors Have Issued Redemption Requests in 2016
40%
Proportion of Respondents
35%
35%
With performance disappointing two- 30% 27%
thirds of investors in 2016, as well as being 25%
25%
a driving factor behind redemptions, 20%
15% 15%
Preqin turned its attention to the length 15%
10%
of time investors would tolerate the 10% 8%
underperformance of a fund before 5%
issuing redemptions. The majority of 0%
Fund Underperformance
Reducing Number of
respondents reported that they would
Relationships within
Reducing Size of Hedge
Relative to Benchmark
Alternatives Portfolio
Other Areas of Wider
Moving Capital from
Other Areas of
Portfolio
Fund Target
5%
2%
0%
0%
Less than 3
More than 18
On a Case-by-
6 Months
3-5 Months
12 Months
7-11 Months
13-18 Months
Months
Case Basis
Months
25
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
be burdensome, those that are willing to Fig. 3.11: Investor Views on the Areas of Fund Terms and Conditions that Have
incur the costs to meet these transparency Changed over the Past 12 Months and that Need to Improve Further in 2017
demands either internally or through 80% 76%
outsourcing may be rewarded with both 70%
57% 57% 59%
inflows from institutions as well as capital 60% 55%
Proportion of
Respondents
48%
50%
that is invested for longer. 39% 39%
40% 30% 30%
30%
The majority (52%) of fund managers 18% 18% 15% 15%
20%
surveyed by Preqin believe that making a 10%
commitment to their own fund is the most 0%
Lock-up Period
Hurdle Rate
More Transparency
Manager Commitment
Management Fees
Fees Amount
Performance
Performance Fees
at Fund Level
interests with investors; however, just 18%
to a Fund
of investors reported that they had seen
an improvement in managers having skin
in the game over the course of 2016. With
39% of investors seeking improvement
on this front, fund managers may need
Have Seen Change Need to Improve Further
to re-evaluate how much of their own
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
capital they have tied up in their fund
and whether this is appropriate to both
encourage better performance without
taking excessive or indeed too little
risk.
27
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
of the trend we saw in our December 2015 Fig. 3.15: Number of Hedge Funds Institutional Investors Expect to Add to Their
investor interviews, and may indicate Portfolios over the Next 12 Months, 2012 - 2016
that these funds will see outflows in 100% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1%
4% 4%
2017, particularly as both systematic and 9% 8%
90% 10% 13%
discretionary CTAs have disappointed the 16%
majority of investors (see page 23). 80% 21% 20%
0% 10% 20%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Proportion of Respondents
OUTLOOK
Increase Exposure Maintain Exposure Decrease Exposure
As we move into 2017, it will be the
twin issues of fees and performance Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
29
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
16%
Through internal
31%
Mainly internal
35%
Mix of internal
16%
Mainly approaches from
2%
Solely from external
investment team or consultant and external managers or marketers, approaches
recommendations, some recommendations some internal
external approaches recommendations
234
fund proposals each year ACTIVE INVESTORS PLANS FOR THEIR
NEXT FUND COMMITMENT:
2018+
MOST IMPORTANT FAC TORS INVESTORS
17%
CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING FOR A
H2 2017
53%
of investors feel they get
HEDGE FUND MANAGER:
10%
insufficient information on TEAM TRACK RECORD
track record.
TEAM STRATEGY H1 2017
60% EXPERIENCE
8%
of proposals, on average, are sent
2
commitments to hedge funds
through for a second round of screening. each year.
8.9%
SATISFACTION WITH
REAL ESTATE
I n December 2016, Preqin interviewed Fig. 4.1: Investor Views on Real Estate Portfolio Performance over the Past 12 Months
over 150 institutional investors to Relative to Expectations, 2014 - 2016
determine their appetite for and attitudes 100%
towards the real estate asset class, as well 90%
as their concerns and investment plans for 26%
33%
80% 39%
2017. Half of the investors surveyed have a
Proportion of Respondents
positive perception of the asset class, with 70% Exceeded Expectations
only 7% viewing it negatively. 60%
Met Expectations
50%
Over the past
67% Fallen Short of Expectations
three years, real 40%
60% 51%
estate performance 30%
alternatives
of over two-fifths (42%) of surveyed INVESTORS GENERAL PERCEPTION OF
Encouragingly, almost all (93%) investors investors, the largest proportion of any THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY
we interviewed at the end of 2016 felt that alternative asset class (Fig. 4.2).
their real estate investments had met or
exceeded their expectations over the past Investors remain confident in the ability
Positive
12 months (Fig. 4.1). However, given real of real estate to fulfil portfolio objectives,
estate returns falling to 8.6% in the year to with over three-quarters (77%) of investors Neutral
June 2016, down from 15.0% in the year to interviewed reporting there has been no Negative
June 2015, it is unsurprising that only 26% change in their level of confidence in the
of those surveyed felt the asset class had asset class (Fig. 4.3). However, compared to
exceeded expectations, compared with those interviewed at the end of 2015, the
39% the previous year. By contrast, the proportion of investors surveyed that have Dec-15 Dec-16
performance of real estate over the past increased confidence in the asset class has
three years has exceeded the expectations fallen by six percentage points.
10%
13% 13%
0%
Dec-15 Dec-16
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016
33
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
and wealth managers accounting for a 60% 57% 57% Direct Investment
54%
combined 17% of all institutional investors. 48%
50%
Listed Funds
ROUTE TO MARKET 40% 34% 37%
While the exact composition of any 30% Unlisted Funds
24% 25%
investors portfolio is dependent on
20%
its unique needs, three-quarters of all
real estate investors globally utilize 10%
private real estate funds as a route to
0%
market, most likely due to the benefits North America Europe Asia Rest of World
fund managers can provide in terms of
Location
diversification and expertise in a range of Source: Preqin Real Estate Online
markets. Unlisted funds are typically the
investment of choice in North America, remaining an attractive alternative to
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS PREFERRED while 62% of Asia-based investors have traditional asset classes at a time when
ROUTE TO MARKET a preference for direct investment (Fig. institutional investors are looking for ever
4.5). In some European markets, such greater diversification in their portfolios.
as Switzerland, direct investment in real Real estate has continued to offer
estate has historically been favoured over competitive risk-adjusted returns, with low
indirect fund commitments. The $232bn correlation to equity and bond returns.
insurance company Swiss Re, for example,
has invested over $3bn in direct property Public pension funds have the least
holdings, equating to 94% of its allocation disparity between their average current
to the asset class. and target allocations (Fig. 4.7). Of these
investors, 88% utilize private real estate
ALLOCATIONS funds as a route to market, favoured by
Investor allocations to real estate have long-term investors due to their long lock-
Unlisted Direct Listed
grown since 2012 (Fig. 4.6), with real estate up periods.
Insurance companies are the furthest based family offices or wealth managers
behind their target allocations, suggesting Private wealth that invest in real estate.
there is still a sizeable amount of capital firms investing
that may enter the asset class in the in real estate are Single- and multi-family offices have
coming years as these institutions look to predominantly based in similar preferences in terms of route
move closer to their long-term strategic to market, favouring direct real estate
North America, although
targets. investment (79% and 63% of each group
their presence in Asia is respectively) and unlisted funds (50% and
The proportion of institutional investors growing 59%) over listed real estate (15% and 28%).
below their target allocation has gradually Wealth managers on the whole have a
decreased over the past five years (Fig. 4.8). wealth managers, single- and multi- more balanced portfolio in terms of route
However, with almost half the institutional family offices) provide a significant to market, with a stronger preference for
investors with a real estate allocation source of capital to the real estate market. listed real estate (40%) than family offices.
below their long-term weighting, there Unsurprisingly, North America is home to
remains a sizeable amount of capital that the majority (55%) of private wealth firms
is likely to continue to enter the asset class (Fig. 4.9). While there are still relatively
in the medium and longer term. few of these investors based in Asia, this
is an area that has been growing rapidly
PRIVATE WEALTH FIRMS in recent years as the family office model
Representing 17% of all real estate becomes more widely used. Preqins Real
investors, private wealth firms (comprising Estate Online profiles more than 100 Asia-
Fig. 4.6: Institutional Investors Current and Target Allocations to Fig. 4.7: Institutional Investors Current and Target Allocations to
Real Estate, 2012 - 2016 Real Estate by Type
12% 12%
10.4%
Average Allocation to Real Estate
10.3% 10.4%
9.8%
10% 9.7% 9.1%
9.7% 9.8% 10.0%
10% 9.5% 9.6% 8.3% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0%
Average Allocation to Real Estate
7.7%
(As a % of AUM)
Average Current
Allocation Average Target
4%
6% Allocation
Average Target 2%
Allocation
4%
0%
Private Sector
Sovereign Wealth
Endowment
Company
Foundation
Superannuation
Insurance
Public Pension
Pension Fund
2%
Plan
Scheme
Fund
Fund
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Preqin Real Estate Online Source: Preqin Real Estate Online
Fig. 4.8: Proportion of Investors that Are At, Above or Below Fig. 4.9: Private Wealth Firms Investing in Real Estate by
Their Target Allocation to Real Estate, 2013 - 2017 Location
100%
10%
0%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: Preqin Real Estate Online Source: Preqin Real Estate Online
35
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
Fig. 4.11: Strategies Targeted in the Next 12 Months by Private Fig. 4.12: Regions Targeted in 2017 by Private Real Estate
Real Estate Investors, 2014 - 2016 Investors by Investor Location
60% 55% 56% 70%
51% 55%
50% 47% 50%
Proportion of Fund Searches
51% 52%
40% North America-
Dec-14 50%
32% Based Investors
28% 40% 42%
30% 25% Dec-15 40%
21% 32% Europe-Based
20% 15% 17% 30% Investors
Dec-16
10% 23%
10% 21%
10% 5% 20% 17% 18%
14% Asia-Based
0% Investors
10% 6%
Opportunistic
Value Added
Debt
Core
Core-Plus
Distressed
0%
North Europe Asia Global
America
Strategy Targeted Region Targeted
Source: Preqin Real Estate Online Source: Preqin Real Estate Online
No Change
Asset valuations
remain a key 41% 53%
Easier to Find Attractive
issue for investors, as Opportunities
does sourcing attractive
investment opportunities
in the current real estate
market
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
In terms of the key macroeconomic factors and fixed income continues to make real
affecting the asset class in 2017, over two- estate attractive to many investors despite
thirds (68%) of surveyed investors believe the competitive pricing. Central bank
low interest rates will have the greatest intervention (23%) and current market
impact on their real estate portfolio in volatility (17%) were also named as key
the coming year an issue that was seen factors for the next 12 months.
by 76% of respondents to have had the
biggest impact on real estate portfolios
over 2016 (Fig. 4.15). Continued low
interest rates make borrowing cheap,
and the spread between real estate yields
37
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
70% 9% 7%
15% 7% 7% 6%
funds in 2016 (18%) from 2015 (15%, Fig. Will Consider
60% 16%
4.16). Institutional investor appetite also Investing in First-
15% 11% Time Funds
varies significantly depending on AUM: the 50%
larger the investor, the more likely they are 40% 16%
Will Only Invest in
to invest in first-time funds. These larger 16%
66% 67% Spin-offs
30% 63% 62% 63%
institutions are more likely to have the staff
48%
and resources to conduct the additional 20%
34% Will Not Invest in
due diligence that may be required to 28%
10% First-Time Funds
invest with an emerging manager.
0%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16
The ability of an investor to allocate capital
Source: Preqin Real Estate Online
through separate accounts, joint ventures
and co-investments is also closely linked sizeable internal teams (often in multiple
to its size, with larger institutions having Larger institutions locations), are very likely to be active
the resources and the experience needed are more likely through these routes. Other groups
to source, review and monitor these to invest in first-time such as family offices or asset managers,
investments. Around 60% of investors which are typically more experienced in
funds, separate accounts,
with assets of $10bn or more will invest, or making direct real estate investments, are
consider investing, through these routes
joint ventures and co- also more likely to make co-investments
to market, while less than one-quarter of investments or separate account commitments.
those that manage up to $1bn in AUM will Investors such as endowment plans and
consider these structures. co-investments and separate accounts foundations, which in many cases have
changes with investor type. Sovereign smaller AUM and smaller investment
Fig. 4.17 and Fig. 4.18 show how the wealth funds, which typically have large teams, are less likely to consider these
likelihood of allocating capital through amounts of capital to put to work and routes to real estate.
Fig. 4.17: Investor Appetite for Real Estate Co-Investments by Fig. 4.18: Investor Appetite for Real Estate Separate Accounts by
Type Type
100% 100%
90% 20% 15% 15% 14% 90% 14% 12%
31% 29% 28% 26% Make Separate
80% 38% 34% 10% 11% 10% Make 80% 41% 10% 8% Account
Proportion of Investors
Proportion of Investors
Asset Manager
Public Pension
Endowment
Foundation
Company
Pension Fund
Wealth Fund
Company
Private Sector
Endowment
Foundation
Asset Manager
Family Office
Insurance
Public Pension
Pension Fund
Sovereign
Sovereign
Plan
Plan
Fund
Fund
Source: Preqin Real Estate Online Source: Preqin Real Estate Online
22%
Through internal
29%
Mainly internal
35%
Mix of internal
13%
Mainly approaches
1%
Solely from external
investment team or consultant and external from GPs or marketers, approaches
recommendations, some recommendations some internal
external approaches recommendations
207
fund proposals each year INVESTORS PLANS FOR THEIR NEXT
FUND COMMITMENT:
2018+
MOST IMPORTANT FAC TORS INVESTORS
11%
CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING FOR A PRIVATE
H2 2017
53%
of investors feel they get
REAL ESTATE FUND MANAGER:
8%
insufficient information on track TEAM TRACK RECORD
record.
TEAM STRATEGY H1 2017
55% EXPERIENCE
8%
of proposals, on average, are sent
2
commitments to private real
through for a second round of screening. estate funds each year.
39
alternative assets. intelligent data.
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3.9%
SATISFACTION WITH
INFRASTRUCTURE
W hile the largest proportion (44%)
of investors surveyed still have a
positive attitude towards the asset class,
expectations over the past 12 months,
an increase from 77% in December
2015. Indicative of the level of investor
in confidence (Fig. 5.3). Mirroring the
wavering positivity among investors in the
asset class, this may also reflect concerns
this is a smaller proportion compared satisfaction with the asset class, the over asset pricing and deal flow in an
with 56% in December 2015 (Fig. 5.1). proportion of respondents that felt their increasingly competitive market.
Concerns regarding asset pricing, deal infrastructure investments had fallen short
flow and the ability of fund managers to of expectations was substantially lower at Despite investors having somewhat less
put large amounts of dry powder to work 11% in 2016 (from 23% in 2015). confidence in infrastructure than a year
may be the influencing factors in this ago, they continue to have a positive
change in sentiment. Fifty-five percent of As of the end of 2016, a greater proportion outlook on the asset class. Fig. 5.4 shows
respondents felt that the current pricing of (68%) of investors had experienced that 53% of investors surveyed intend
infrastructure assets was expensive. no change in their confidence in to increase their allocation to the asset
infrastructure to achieve their portfolio class over the longer term. A further 37%
As shown in Fig. 5.2, 89% of institutional objectives over the past year than in of investors expect to maintain their
investors felt that their infrastructure fund December 2015 (64%). However, a smaller allocation to infrastructure.
investments had met or exceeded their proportion (17%) have seen an increase
Fig. 5.1: Investors General Perception of the Infrastructure Fig. 5.2: Investor Views on Infrastructure Portfolio Performance
Industry, 2015 vs. 2016 over the Past 12 Months Relative to Expectations, 2015 vs. 2016
100% 100%
12%
90% 90% 18%
56% Exceeded
70% 70%
Expectations
Positive
60% 60%
50% 50% 59% Met
Neutral 77%
Expectations
40% 40%
39%
30% 29% Negative 30% Fallen Short of
Expectations
20% 20%
10% 17% 10% 23%
14% 11%
0% 0%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-15 Dec-16
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016
20% 20%
10% 10%
14% 15% 11%
9%
0% 0%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-15 Dec-16
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016
43
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
Proportion of Investors
independent asset class in recent years, 17% 17%
15% 15% Jan-13
with the size of the market and availability 15%
12%
of opportunities increasing as many 10% 10%
governments seek private funding for 10% 9% 9% 8% Jan-17
7% 8%
6% 6% 7%
public infrastructure projects.
5% 3%
The number of 0%
investors in the Public Pension
Other
Company
Bank/Investment
Private Sector
Asset Manager
Private Wealth
Foundation
Insurance
Endowment
Pension Fund
Plan
Fund
Bank
by more than 116% since
2013
Source: Preqin Infrastructure Online
MAKE-UP OF INVESTORS a smaller proportion of the overall total in active investors in unlisted infrastructure:
Preqins Infrastructure Online service 2017 compared with 2013. 17% of investors have total AUM of $100bn
tracks over 2,900 institutional investors or more. This is a larger proportion than in
across the globe that are investing, or are Infrastructure continues to hold previous years, indicating the increasing
considering investing, in the asset class, substantial appeal for large institutional interest and activity in the asset class from
with extensive profiles of investment investors attempting to manage long- the largest sovereign wealth funds, public
plans, preferences and existing portfolios. term liabilities in a low-interest rate pension funds and insurance companies.
The number of institutional investors in environment, where yields remain at
the infrastructure asset class has increased historically low levels. However, it is also ALLOCATIONS TO INFRASTRUCTURE
by over 116% between 2013 and 2017, notable that private wealth investors make Average current and target allocations to
an indication of the increasing depth of up 12% of the investor universe in 2017, infrastructure have decreased slightly from
the investor universe. Fig. 5.5 shows that up from 3% in 2013. 2016 and stand at 3.9% and 5.2% of AUM
pension funds continue to account for in 2017 respectively, reversing the upward
around a third of infrastructure investors, Fig. 5.6 illustrates that large investors trend from 2013 to 2015 (Fig. 5.7). New
although public pension funds make up represent a substantial proportion of investors entering the industry in large
Fig. 5.6: Institutional Investors in Infrastructure by Assets under Fig. 5.7: Institutional Investors Current and Target Allocations to
Management Infrastructure, 2013 - 2017
40% 6% 5.7% 5.7%
36%
35% 5.2%
5.0% 5.1%
Proportion of Investors
5%
Average Allocation to Infrastructure
30%
25% 4.3% 4.3%
4% 3.9%
20% 3.6% Average Current
(As a % of AUM)
$10-49.9bn
$50-99.9bn
or More
$500-999mn
$1-9.9bn
$100bn
$500mn
1%
0%
Assets under Management Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: Preqin Infrastructure Online Source: Preqin Infrastructure Online
numbers are likely to have contributed to Fig. 5.8: Institutional Investors Current and Target Allocations to Infrastructure by Type
this, with fresh entrants typically allocating 9%
smaller proportions of their total assets 7.7%
8%
Average Allocation to
regarding the pricing of infrastructure Average Current
6%
assets and the availability of assets for 5.0% 5.0% Allocation
5% 4.6% 4.4%
deals may also have contributed to the 4.3% 4.0%
4% 3.7% 3.4%
reduction in average allocations to the 3.2%
asset class in 2016. 3% Average Target
2% Allocation
1%
0%
Superannuation
Private Sector
Foundation
Endowment
Public Pension
Insurance
Company
Pension Fund
Plan
Scheme
Fund
Source: Preqin Infrastructure Online
63%
of investors are below their target Fig. 5.9: Proportion of Investors At, Above or Below Their Target Allocation to
allocation to the asset class. Infrastructure, 2013 - 2017
100%
11% 12% 10% 11%
90% 19%
Superannuation schemes, which
are typically based in the developed 80%
27% 26% 27% 26% Above Target
infrastructure market of Australia, continue
Proportion of Investors
70% Allocation
to have the highest average current 28%
and target allocations at 6.8% and 7.7% 60%
respectively (Fig. 5.8), a reflection of their 50% At Target
experience and expertise in the asset class. Allocation
40%
Significant allocations are also maintained
30% 62% 62% 63% 63%
by endowment plans and foundations, as 53%
Below Target
well as other long-term investors including Allocation
20%
insurance companies and public and
10%
private sector pension funds.
0%
The majority (63%) of infrastructure Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
investors are below their target allocation Source: Preqin Infrastructure Online
to infrastructure, indicating the availability
of capital and the continued growth Fig. 5.10: Infrastructure Investors by Source of Allocation, 2013 - 2017
prospects in the asset class (Fig. 5.9).
100%
45
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
60%
The proportion of surveyed investors that
Same Amount of
expect to commit the same amount of 50%
Capital
capital in the next 12 months compared 40% 26% 50%
to the previous year has almost doubled Less Capital
30%
from 26% in December 2015 to 50%
in December 2016 (Fig. 5.11). This 20%
proportional increase coincides with a 10%
26%
decrease in the proportion of investors 12%
that expect to commit more capital as well 0%
Dec-15 Dec-16
as those that expect to commit less in the
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016
next 12 months.
Fig. 5.12: Sectors* Investors View as Presenting the Best Opportunities
INVESTOR PREFERENCES
As shown in Fig. 5.12, renewable energy Renewable Energy 64%
is favoured by the largest proportion of
investors, with 64% believing that these Energy (excl. Renewables) 43%
assets present attractive opportunities.
Demand for renewable energy Transport 34%
infrastructure has been bolstered by
political support for alternative sources Utilities 21%
of energy that are sustainable for the
environment and cost-effective over the Telecommunications 21%
longer term. Private infrastructure capital
Social 17%
therefore has sought to capitalize on these
opportunities, with investors attracted to
Waste Management 9%
the stable, long-term risk-adjusted returns
available. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Proportion of Respondents
The largest Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
Fig. 5.15: Routes to Market Targeted in the Next 12 Months by Infrastructure Investors,
2013 - 2017
100%
91%
90%
80% 76%
73%
Proportion of Fund Searches
20% 14%
7% 9%
10% 6% 6%
0%
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: Preqin Infrastructure Online
*Respondents were not prompted to give their opinion on each sector/strategy/region individually but to name those they felt best fit these categories; therefore, the results display the
sectors/strategies/regions at the forefront of investors minds at the time of the survey.
47
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
PriceVolatility
Central Bank
Geopolitical
StockMarket
Low Interest
MarketVolatility
China's Economy
Intervention
Landscape
Commodity
Slowdown in
Volatility
Rates
Currency
10% 10%
7% 4%
4% 0% 6%
0%
Separate Accounts Co-Investments Separate Accounts Co-Investments
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
49
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
11%
Through internal
31%
Mainly internal
36%
Mix of internal
20%
Mainly approaches
2%
Solely from external
investment team or consultant and external from GPs or marketers, approaches
recommendations, some recommendations some internal
external approaches recommendations
155
fund proposals each year INVESTORS PLANS FOR THEIR NEXT
FUND COMMITMENT:
2018+
MOST IMPORTANT FAC TORS INVESTORS
10%
CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING FOR AN
H2 2017
48%
of investors feel they get
INFRASTRUC TURE FUND MANAGER:
16%
insufficient information on track TEAM TRACK RECORD
record.
TEAM STRATEGY H1 2017
53% EXPERIENCE
10%
of proposals, on average, are sent
2
commitments to unlisted
through for a second round of screening. infrastructure funds each year.
to the systematic retreat of banks from the Strong levels of investor satisfaction are North America and Europe remain
commercial lending space. Institutional certainly welcomed by fund managers home to the majority of active private
investors have continuously poured capital raising new funds in 2017, which will debt investors, with 83% of allocators
commitments into the asset class, which compete for commitments from the 57% headquartered in the two regions. It is
now holds $594bn in AUM, and includes of respondents that plan to commit more likely that 2017 will see modest upticks
strategies spanning the risk/return capital to the asset class in the coming in private debt activity outside these two
spectrum. Preqin currently tracks more year. At the time of Preqins December areas, as investors and fund managers
than 2,400 institutional investors that are 2016 investor interviews, just 8% of alike feel the effects of greater market
actively investing or planning their maiden existing investors planned to decrease saturation and competition. Quite a few
commitment to the asset class. their private debt allocations in the long investors perceive Africa, Asia and South
term, while nearly two-thirds intended to America as promising areas of opportunity
The positive outlook for the asset class is increase their allocations. Looking forward, for private lending funds in the near
largely a product of the hugely positive investors will be keeping a close eye on future.
investor sentiment: 93% of investors we interest rates and potential issues within
+
26% $5.4bn 11%
of investors typically commit to three or Current allocation to private debt of of investors invest in private debt from a
more private debt funds per year. KB Insurance, the largest Asia-based dedicated allocation.
institutional private debt investor.
SATISFACTION WITH
PRIVATE DEBT
P reqin interviewed more than 80 Fig. 6.1: Investor Views on Private Debt Portfolio Performance over the Past 12 Months
institutional private debt investors Relative to Expectations
at the end of 2016 to ascertain how their
investments have performed in the past
year and where they see the industry 7%
heading in 2017. The results indicate
27%
that investor appetite for the coming Exceeded Expectations
year should be stronger than it was in
the past 12 months. Continued interest
Met Expectations
from investors is welcome news for
emerging managers as well as established
Fallen Short of Expectations
fundraisers heading into 2017 with
optimistic fundraising targets.
66%
Overall, investors agree that their private
debt investments lived up to their initial
performance expectations. As a result,
investors retain a generally positive
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
perception of the asset class. The vast
majority (93%) of respondents stated While almost all institutional investors the goals of the fund and the underlying
that the performance of their private interviewed share a positive or at borrowers must be clearly aligned, which
debt portfolios either met or exceeded least neutral view of private credit as generally occurred over 2016 according
expectations in 2016 (Fig. 6.1), an increase a whole heading into 2017, sentiment to the satisfaction scores reported by
from 86% in December 2015. More on the quality of opportunities within investors.
investors also have a positive view of the a given strategy can vary. For example,
asset class: 68% of respondents maintain the prominence of the direct lending Fund terms have continued an evolution
a positive perception of private debt, segment has certainly made private debt towards becoming more investor friendly,
compared with 54% at the end of 2015 investing more accessible being at the as transparency has become a uniform
only 4% view the asset class negatively relatively lower-risk end of the alternatives mandate from the alternative investor
(Fig. 6.2). Furthermore, investor confidence spectrum. Strategies that sit higher on the community, which continues to gain
in the asset class remains high, with 29% risk/return spectrum, such as distressed traction at the negotiating table. The
reporting an increase in confidence over and venture debt, still offer the potential majority (54%) of investors have seen
the past 12 months, while just 10% are less for impressive returns targeted by some changes in management fees over the past
confident in the ability of private debt to investors. In order for fund managers to year, while 27% have experienced more
meet portfolio objectives. match or surpass investor expectations, transparency at fund level (Fig. 6.3).
Fig. 6.2: Investors General Perception of the Private Debt Fig. 6.3: Investor Views on Areas of Fund Terms and Conditions
Industry that Have Changed over the Past 12 Months
Hurdle Rate 8%
53
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
sti
of its $23bn in AUM to the asset class, and 5% tutional
year. The Laughren Group is looking to Fig. 6.6: Proportion of Aggregate Capital Currently Invested in Private Debt by Investor
invest in opportunities in Asia, while Type
Interventure Capital Group is targeting
new distressed debt funds over the
coming year.
Private Sector
Pension Fund
Public and private sector pension funds, 24%
which together make up the largest
proportion of investors, are both looking Public Pension
to increase their allocations to private Fund Wealth Manager
32% Private Wealth 3% 2.0%
debt. Public pension funds in particular Family Office 1.2%
have an average target allocation that
Asset Foundation
is two percentage points higher than Manager 1.7%
their current allocation, which would 6% Endowment Plan
account for an additional $128bn in capital Insurance Fund of Funds 1.7%
Company Managers
commitments. 11% 9%
Average Current
number, and constitute 3% of aggregate 15% Allocation
12.2%
capital currently committed to the asset 10.7% 10.7%
class. On average, private wealth investors 10% 8.7% Average Target
6.1% Allocation
are significantly under-allocated to private 5.8% 5.2% 4.7% 5.1%
5% 4.2% 4.5%
debt: the average current allocation to the 3.5% 3.2% 2.8% 2.6%
asset class among private wealth investors
is 8.3% of AUM, while the average target 0%
Public Pension
Company
Wealth Manager
Asset Manager
Endowment Plan
Private Sector
Family Office
Foundation
Insurance
Pension Fund
Fig. 6.8: 10 Largest Public Pension Funds by Current Allocation to Private Debt (As at January 2017)
Assets under Management Current Allocation to Private Debt
Investor
($bn) ($bn)
New York State Teachers' Retirement System 109.5 8.8
California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) 303.4 5.0
Arizona State Retirement System 34.5 4.1
Oregon State Treasury 69.3 3.6
Texas County & District Retirement System 25.6 3.1
Washington State Investment Board 84.1 3.0
San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association 8.7 2.9
Florida State Board of Administration 178.5 2.7
New Mexico Educational Retirement Board 11.7 2.3
Maryland State Retirement and Pension System 46.3 2.1
Source: Preqin Private Debt Online
55
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
past few years, North America and parts Fig. 6.9: Private Wealth Investors Current and Target Allocations to Private Debt by
of Europe remain highly concentrated Type
regions of investor activity in the asset 25%
class. It is unclear when or if the types of
(As a % of AUM)
investment base in sizeable markets 15.7% Average Current
such as China, but given the amount 15% Allocation
of potential capital available there
will certainly be continued efforts by 10.7% 10.7% Average Target
managers. 10% Allocation
8.3%
11% 0%
All Private Wealth Family Wealth
Office Manager
Source: Preqin Private Debt Online
28%
Fig. 6.10: Private Wealth Investors Outlook on Private Debt
61% 100%
90%
80% 40%
47%
Proportion of Investors
70% 54%
North America Increase
Europe 60%
No Change
Asia & Rest of World 50%
40%
OUTLOOK 47%
40% Decrease
30%
According to our December 2016
20% 46%
interviews with institutional investors in
private debt, 89% of respondents plan to 10%
13% 13%
either maintain or increase the amount of 0%
capital they invest in private debt in the No. of Fund Manager Private Debt Capital Allocated
next 12 months compared to the previous Relationships in the Allocations in to Private Debt:
year. A similar proportion (92%) plan to Next Two Years the Long Term 2017 vs. 2016
maintain or increase their allocations in Source: Preqin Private Debt Online
53%
Part of Opportunistic Allocation
Other
Valuations 31%
40%
11% Deal Flow 27%
36%
Performance 25%
More Capital 33%
Regulation 11%
28%
Same Amount Volatility/Uncertainty 10%
32% of Capital in Global Markets 26%
57% Availability/Pricing 9%
Less Capital of Debt Financing 22%
Transparency 10%
7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Proportion of Respondents
2016 2017
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
Fig. 6.14: Investors Intentions for Their Private Debt Allocations Fig. 6.15: Number of Private Debt Fund Commitments Investors
over the Long Term Typically Make Each Year
8% 2%
10% 16%
Less than 1
Increase Allocation
14% 1-2
7 or More
59%
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2016
57
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
planning to decrease their allocation is a Fig. 6.16: Investor Views on the Difficulty of Identifying Attractive Investment
useful gauge with which to measure the Opportunities Compared to 12 Months Ago
projections and confidence of institutional
investors in relation to private debt fund
commitments. 9%
Brexit Vote
PriceVolaitilty
Central Bank
StockMarket
Geopolitical
US Economy
Currency Market
China's Economy
Intervention
Landscape
Commodity
Slowdown in
Volatility
59
CAISSE DE PENSIONS DE LTAT DE
WOODMAN ASSET MANAGEMENT VAUD WEGA SUPPORT
Type: PD Fund of Funds Manager Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Family Office
Location: Zug, Switzerland Location: Lausanne, Switzerland Location: Munich, Germany
AUM: $2.6bn AUM: CHF 11bn ($11bn) Considering investing in distressed,
Targeting direct lending, special situations Will commit 10-20 CHF in the next 12 mezzanine, direct lending and special
and distressed debt vehicles, on a global months, with a strong preference for situations funds focused on Europe and
scale. private debt fund of funds vehicles on a North America.
global scale.
HELABA INVEST
Type: Investment Company
Location: Frankfurt, Germany DIC CORPORATION PENSION FUND
AUM: 160bn ($168bn) Type: Private Sector Pension Fund
Seeking direct lending funds within Location: Tokyo, Japan
Europe. The investment company typically AUM: JPY 117bn ($995mn)
commits up to 20mn per investment. Focusing on senior debt vehicles across
the US and Europe.
FTLIFE INSURANCE COMPANY
TREA CAPITAL PARTNERS Type: Insurance Company
Type: PE Fund of Funds Manager Location: Hong Kong
Location: Barcelona, Spain AUM: $3.0bn
AUM: 41mn ($43mn) Looking to make its maiden private debt
Looking to commit 5mn to a Spain- commitment. Will consider opportunities
focused direct lending fund in the next 12 globally, targeting USD-denominated
months. funds.
WHITMAN COLLEGE ENDOWMENT PRI PENSIONGARANTI CHRISTIAN SUPER
Type: Endowment Plan Type: Private Sector Pension Fund Type: Superannuation Scheme
Location: Walla Walla, Washington, US Location: Stockholm, Sweden Location: Sydney, Australia
AUM: $500mn AUM: SEK 3.0bn ($324mn) AUM: AUD 1.1bn ($832mn)
20%
Through internal
31%
Mainly internal
33%
Mix of internal
13%
Mainly approaches
3%
Solely from external
investment team or consultant and external from GPs or marketers, approaches
or consultant recommendations, some recommendations some internal
recommendations external approaches recommendations
2018+
10%
H2 2017
MOST IMPORTANT FAC TORS INVESTORS
CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING FOR A
15%
52%
of investors feel they get
PRIVATE DEBT FUND MANAGER: H1 2017
75%
insufficient information on track TEAM TRACK RECORD
record.
FIRM TRACK
Q1 2017
58% RECORD
7%
of proposals, on average, are sent
2
commitments to private debt
through for a second round of screening. funds each year.
?
22% 23% 41%
of investors believe it is currently easier of investors will reduce their natural of investors believe volatility/uncertainty
to find attractive opportunities than resources allocation over the longer in global markets is the key issue in the
12 months ago, the largest proportion term, compared to 19% that will natural resources industry for 2017 an
among investors in all alternative asset increase it. equal proportion believe performance is
classes tracked by Preqin. the key concern.
SATISFACTION WITH
NATURAL RESOURCES
T he natural resources asset class has
faced sustained challenges over
recent years, the repercussions of which
Despite this improvement in the
perception of the asset class, the majority
(54%) of investors surveyed felt the
market volatility and the fall in oil prices on
their natural resources portfolios; nearly
two-thirds of surveyed investors felt that
have been felt by institutional investors performance of their natural resources the performance of their natural resources
allocating to the asset class. portfolios had fallen short of their investments over the past three years had
expectations over the past year only fallen short of expectations, although a
A fifth of surveyed investors have a 10% saw their expectations exceeded (Fig. third found that investments had met
negative view of the asset class at present 7.2). Of all alternative asset classes tracked expectations.
the second largest proportion among by Preqin, only hedge fund investors
all alternatives albeit this represents an (66%) were more disappointed with their Unless performance improves, the industry
improvement on 33% of investors at the investments. could see a reduction in assets a greater
end of 2015 (Fig. 7.1). Correspondingly, proportion of institutions surveyed are
there has been a rise in the proportion of Despite improved perception of and looking to reduce (23%) their allocation
investors with a positive view of natural satisfaction with natural resources over the to the asset class over the long term than
resources, up from 17% in December 2015 past 12 months, investors are concerned increase it (19%, Fig. 7.4).
to 29% at the end of 2016. over the potential impact of commodity
Proportion of Respondents
0% 0%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-15 Dec-16
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016
Proportion of Respondents
Increased Increase
70% 70%
Confidence Allocation
60% 60%
58% 68%
50% No Change in 50% 58% Maintain
Confidence 49% Allocation
40% 40%
0% 0%
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-15 Dec-16
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016 Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016
63
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
Fig. 7.5: Investor Views on the Key Issues Facing Natural Fig. 7.6: Investor Views on the Pricing of Natural Resources
Resources in 2017 Assets by Strategy
100% 5% 4% 4%
Volatility/Uncertainty in Global Markets 41% 10% 9% 6%
90% 6%
Performance 41% 17%
80% 29% 28% Very Expensive
Proportion of Respondents
20% 26%
Exit Environment 30%
70%
Valuations 23% Expensive
60%
Regulation 22% 69%
50% 63% About Right
Fees 19% 50%
40% 57% 60% 52%
Public Perception of Industry 16% Cheap
30%
Availability/Pricing of Debt 14% 20% Very Cheap
Deal Flow 14% 10% 17% 20% 19%
10% 8% 13%
Commodity Pricing 11% 0%
Metals &
Agriculture
Renewable
Timberland
Water
Energy (excl.
Mining
Renewable
Governance 11%
Energy
Energy)
INVESTOR ACTIVITY
IN 2017
I t appears surveyed investors are taking
a wait-and-see approach towards
investment in natural resources funds
INVESTOR PREFERENCES
Active natural resources investors will
predominantly seek exposure to the asset
As expected, energy funds are sought
by the largest proportion (88%) of active
natural resources investors (Fig. 7.12),
over 2017. Just over half are planning class through unlisted funds (86%, Fig. with other strategies registering interest
to commit the same amount in 2017 as 7.10), a reflection of the relative youth of from 20-25% of the active investor
they did in 2016, while relatively even the industry. Nearly half (49%) of active population. Of the active energy investors,
proportions will invest more than they did investors will seek investments globally the vast majority (88%) seek exposure
the previous year (26%) as will invest less in the year ahead (Fig. 7.11). With regards to renewable energy, with only 28%
(22%, Fig. 7.9). to specific regions, traditional markets targeting natural gas investments and 23%
are favoured for investment in 2017: 42% seeking exposure to oil investments.
and 40% of fund searches issued target
Investors are North America and Europe respectively,
taking a wait-and- compared with 19% of investors seeking
see approach in 2017 Asia-Pacific-focused funds and 6%
targeting all other regions.
70% 70%
More Capital
60%
60% 35%
50%
50% Same Amount
52%
of Capital 40%
40% 31%
Less Capital 30%
30%
20%
20% 41% 9%
10%
10% 22%
0%
0% Direct Investment Listed Funds Unlisted Funds
Dec-15 Dec-16 Route to Market Targeted
Source: Preqin Investor Interviews, December 2015 - December 2016 Source: Preqin Natural Resources Online
Fig. 7.11: Regions Targeted in the Next 12 Months by Natural Fig. 7.12: Strategies Targeted in the Next 12 Months by Natural
Resources Investors Resources Investors
60% 100%
90% 88%
Proportion of Fund Searches
49%
50% 80%
Proportion of Fund Searches
42% 70%
40%
40% 60%
50%
30% 40%
30% 25% 22%
19% 21% 18%
20% 20%
12% 10%
10% 6% 0%
Metals &
Timberland
Water
Agriculture/
Energy
Mining
Farmland
0%
North Europe Asia-Pacific Rest of Emerging Global
America World Markets
Region Targeted Strategy Targeted
Source: Preqin Natural Resources Online Source: Preqin Natural Resources Online
65
alternative assets. intelligent data.
PREQIN INVESTOR OUTLOOK: ALTERNATIVE ASSETS, H1 2017
STRATEGIES AND
GEOGRAPHIES TARGETED
STRATEGIES Fig. 7.13: Strategies* that Investors View as Presenting the Best Opportunities
Institutional investors in natural resources
were asked about where they felt the 80%
Proportion of Respondents
youth of the unlisted natural resources 60%
industry as a distinct asset class, primary
50%
unlisted fund commitments remain the
predominant method for gaining exposure 40%
to the industry. As such, the majority (70%)
30%
of surveyed investors see primary vehicles
as providing the best opportunities (Fig. 20% 16% 16%
7.13). 11%
10%
Fig. 7.14: Sectors* Investors View as Presenting the Best Fig. 7.15: Regions* Investors View as Presenting the Best
Opportunities Opportunities
50% 46% North America 73%
45%
Proportion of Respondents
Timberland
Water
Agriculture/
Energy
Mining
Farmland
Energy
Global 17%
67
PFA PENSION
Type: Insurance Company MERCER PRIVATE MARKETS
ENVIRONMENT AGENCY PENSION Location: Copenhagen, Denmark Type: Infrastructure Fund of Funds
FUNDS AUM: DKK 587bn Manager SWEDBANK PENSION
Type: Public Pension Fund Looking to invest DKK 37bn (5bn) over Location: Zurich, Switzerland Type: Private Sector Pension Fund
Location: Bristol, UK the next five years in order to reach its AUM: $21.8bn Location: Tallinn, Estonia
10% alternatives target, focusing on Seeking Asia- and North America-focused AUM: 700mn
AUM: 3.1bn
renewable energy and infrastructure water and energy investments. Targeting a timberland fund as an inflation hedge
Current/Target Allocation to NR: 1%/2%
Considering further investment as it assets. against traditional investments. Has a preference
aims to meet its 2% target, investing in for domestic investments.
timberland, energy and agriculture funds
on a global scale.
SHINKIN CENTRAL BANK
3SISTERS SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT Type: Bank
Type: Real Assets Fund of Funds Manager Location: Tokyo, Japan
Location: Philadelphia, US AUM: JPY 34.6tn
AUM: $33mn Considering investment in developed
Targeting agriculture, energy and water- markets-focused unlisted natural
related vehicles on a global basis. resources funds through its private equity
allocation.
SACRAMENTO COUNTY EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT
SYSTEM HYUNDAI MARINE & FIRE INSURANCE
Type: Public Pension Fund Type: Insurance Company
Location: Sacramento, US Location: Seoul, South Korea
AUM: $7.7bn AUM: KRW 30tn
Current Allocation to NR: 0.6% Investing both directly and through
Looking to commit to 3-6 unlisted real assets funds globally, unlisted funds in renewable energy assets
which include infrastructure and natural resources vehicles. in developed markets that include North
America, Australia and Europe.
COMPAGNIA DI SAN PAOLO
Type: Foundation
TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY SYSTEM Location: Turin, Italy
PARAGON OUTCOMES MANAGEMENT
ENDOWMENT AUM: 6.5bn
Type: Wealth Manager CHRISTIAN SUPER
Type: Endowment Plan Current Allocation to NR: 1.5%
Location: New York, US Type: Superannuation Scheme
Will target agriculture, energy, metals & mining,
22%
Through internal
31%
Mainly internal
27%
Mix of internal
18%
Mainly approaches
2%
Solely from external
investment team or consultant and external from GPs or marketers, approaches
recommendations, some recommendations some internal
external approaches recommendations
161
fund proposals each year INVESTORS PLANS FOR THEIR NEXT
FUND COMMITMENT:
2018+
MOST IMPORTANT FAC TORS INVESTORS
26%
CONSIDER WHEN AL
LOOKING FOR A NATUR H2 2017
50%
of investors feel they get
RESOURCES FUND MANAGER:
13%
insufficient information on track TEAM TRACK RECORD
record.
TEAM STRATEGY H1 2017
48% EXPERIENCE
8%
of proposals, on average, are sent
2
commitments to natural resources
through for a second round of screening. funds each year.
H1 2017
PREQIN
Alternative Assets Data & Intelligence
info@preqin.com
www.preqin.com