PROBLEM FRAMING

MGT 506 Fall 2017

2200 Evans
Monday & Wednesday
4:10 pm - 5:30 pm

Professor Paul Bracken

Evans Hall, Room 5526
203.432.5962 paul.bracken@yale.edu

Course Asst: Camille Costelli

camille.costelli@yale.edu

PROBLEM FRAMING

There are many people who can solve the problems that are given to them. There are many fewer
who can define them in the first place, i.e. spot the most important challenges that they, as leaders, should
be focusing on. One manager of a giant technology company put it this way: there are really two kinds of
leaders. One type makes the tough calls -- the hard choices that come to him. The second type of leader
goes out and determines if these are the real alternatives in the first place. Problem Framing emphasizes
leadership in this second sense of the term.

This is a course on big picture analytics. It shows how to frame complex strategy and
management problems with an action, future oriented outlook. The course does this by teaching
frameworks, concepts, and distinctions used by management consulting firms, think tanks, government,
the military, and leading companies. Scenario methods, environmental scanning, alternative futures, red
teaming, trend analysis, net assessment, multiframing, and business war gaming are applied to real cases.

MGT 506 Problem Framing

 When facing a complex challenge it is necessary to decide what the real problem is so that one
can focus critical thinking on it. If this is done carelessly, or thoughtlessly, an overly narrow viewpoint
will be adopted. One will then work the wrong or an irrelevant problem. It is all too common for a
company or government agency to approach a problem in a certain way simply because it knows how to
do certain things, rather than first asking what the problem really is.

The likely success of efforts aimed at solving a problem, then, will almost always depend on how
well the problem is framed. Thus the name of the course, Problem Framing. Whether you are thinking
of deciding on a course of action yourself, e.g. for your career, or of managing a team to solve a
problem, the likelihood of a good outcome depends on the way the problem is formulated and how
clearly it is communicated to others.

Problem Framing, MGT 506, is designed to transcend any single function or discipline of
management, to help you imaginatively frame questions and consider multiple perspectiveswhat I
call multiframing. One needs to learn how to approach problems from many perspectives and to
combine various approaches in order to develop innovative solutions.

WHAT YOULL LEARN IN THE COURSE

Students in Problem Framing will learn new conceptual approaches as well as practical skills.
Specifically, you will learn how to:

View problems through multiple lenses

Extract the most important issues from a complex situation
Find out how to examine assumptions and biases that often distort decisions
Learn how to think across disciplines and functions in order to clarify, define, and analyze
major challenges
Spot new patterns and opportunities
Use various tools, heuristics, and frameworks used by the worlds foremost consulting firms,
government agencies, and leading corporations; and which draw on the latest academic
research

MGT 506 Problem Framing

 CLASS SCHEDULE
(All readings, cases, etc. are found on the web in Canvas Files, under MGT 506)

August 30, 2017: Are You Solving the Right Problems?

Overview of the course

What is a problem frame?
Two useful methods
Introduction to multiframing

Readings

"The Framing Challenge, What Is the Real Problem?" HBS 6334BC

September 1 (Friday): Some Exercises in Problem Framing

Problem Frames can influence every stage of problem solving outside of our awareness
In class exercise demonstrating the impact of problem frames

In Class Exercise: Compass Diagram

September 6: Trends

Trends are the general direction in which something is developing or changing.

Trends: what they are, secular vs. cyclic, and other distinctions
S-shaped curves
The two biggest mistakes in analyzing trends

Reading
Why Environmental Scanning Works Except When You Need It, HBS BH104

September 11: Environmental Scanning

The multifold trend

The confluence of trends: the cross impact matrix

Readings:

"How to Seize the Opportunities When Megatrends Collide," strategy + business, 2015

MGT 506 Problem Framing

September 13: Social Forecasting

Predictability of different kinds of trends

Complicated things, like social trends

Case: What Business is Zara In? (HBS W15431) half of the class

Is Tiffanys Losing Its Sparkle? (HBS 316-0405-1) other half of the class

September 18: Are Your Assumptions Correct?

Assumptions in a business model

Load bearing assumptions
The Assumption Based Planning (ABP) Methods
Signposts

Readings:
Paul Bracken, Assumption Based Planning
Ronald Cohen, The Second Bounce of the Ball, Turning Risk into Opportunity, (London, 2007), pp. 95-
123

September 20: Red Teaming How to Think Like the Enemy

Red teaming is the technique of thinking like the enemy. Here, the enemy may be customers, the
bureaucracy, or any of a wide range of other possibilities.

Paul Bracken, "Red Teaming" 2015

September 25: Dealing with Uncertainty

The Uncertainty Problem, How to Deal with Unknowns, HBS 6372BC

Paul Bracken, How to Build a Warning System Managing Strategic Surprise (Cambridge
University Press)

September 27: Scenario Methods

Scenarios and alternative futures in corporate strategy

Scenario thinking isnt prediction

Readings:

Herman Kahn, The Use of Scenarios

A Note on Scenario Planning (Darden 306 003)

MGT 506 Problem Framing

October 2: Alternative Futures

Skim the following two reports (they're quite long) to get a sense of format and scope in using
scenarios:

Shells Global Scenarios to 2025 Optional (Resources folder)

"Global Trends 2030," Report of the National Intelligence Council, especially the Executive
Summary and Alternative Worlds (this report is on the web, not in Resources folder)

October 4: The Politics of Problem Framing

Politics plays an important role in problem framing, in the large and the small. In the large they bear on
negotiating power, as in the terms the Spanish government could secure compared to, say, Greece. In
the small, it led to sharpening the generational divide and many other social tensions. Spain, again, is a
good example.

Spain: Can the House Resist the Storm? (HBS 9-709-021) the political reaction to the financial crisis
in Spain serves as an introduction to Brexit issues in Europe.

October 9: The Psychology of Problem Framing

We are all hardwired to focus on certain information and think in certain ways. This class explores the
impact of these tendencies on problem framing.

Narrow Bracketing risk taking, overconfidence

Reference points risk taking, value, loss aversion
The liability of newness

Reading:

Case: President Kennedy and the Bay of Pigs, HKS009

October 11: Taking Stock of the Brexit Shock

Student teams (UK, Germany, Greece, EU, Poland, ECB, large companies, etc.) will conduct a seminar
game on the Brexit shock)

August 26, 2017

MGT 506 Problem Framing